I don’t like trading pitching, but I’d swap Mike Minor for Beltran
October 2004: Carlos Beltran homers yet again; Jaret Wright surrenders. (AP photo)
The Braves have cause to beware the prospect(s)-for-rental-player trade. They’ve been burned twice this century: Once in December 2003, when they shipped Jason Marquis and Adam Wainwright to St. Louis for a year’s worth of J.D. Drew, and again in July 2007 when they sent the entire farm system — OK, not really — to Texas for 364 days of Mark Teixeira’s services.
And now, another trade deadline close at hand, we here have reason to ponder the merits of another rumored young-for-old swap. The Mets are looking to divest themselves of Carlos Beltran, who will become a free agent at season’s end. (And if you’re thinking the Braves might have a chance to keep Beltran longer-term, forget it. His agent, as was the case with Drew and Teixeira, is Scott Boras.)
Owing to money problems from Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme, the Mets have money problems. They’re not looking for big names. They’re in need of cheap young arms. The Braves have ‘em. It has been reported that the Mets dispatched a scout to watch Mike Minor work for Gwinnett against Louisville on Thursday. (Might not have been the best night to catch him: Six innings, 10 hits, six runs, three earned.)
We ask: Two months plus postseason of Beltran against the next five years of Minor — would you do it?
I would.
As a rule, I hate trading young pitchers. (Mention the names of John Smoltz and Jair Jurrjens to a Tigers fan.) I would under no circumstances — if the Rangers offered Josh Hamilton I might rethink, but only then — part with Julio Teheran or Arodys Vizcaino, and I’m on record as saying I wouldn’t swap Brandon Beachy for Carlos Quentin, the White Sox outfielder who can become a free agent after next season.
But Minor-for-Beltran I’d do, for two reasons. First, Beltran plays center field, which means he’d fill an immediate need. (Quentin is a corner outfielder.) Second, I’m not crazy about Minor.
When the Braves drafted him in Round 1 out of Vanderbilt in 2009, the ESPN analyst Keith Law suggested they’d erred. But not every guy you pick in Round 1 has to wind up in your rotation to have value: If Minor can be turned into Beltran and Beltran hits the winning home run in Game 7 of the World Series, this will go down as the greatest Braves’ No. 1 pick since Chipper Jones.
In two-plus years in the organization, Minor has done well. But he’s not in the majors, and those who justified drafting him did so in the belief he was already close to being big-league ready. He has been lapped by Beachy, who wasn’t drafted at all, and will soon be passed by Teheran. And if Beachy vis-a-vis Minor had been a close call, the Braves would have erred on the side of the lefthander, seeing as how their rotation lacks one. But it’s not close.
Minor isn’t another Wainwright, who clearly projected as a No. 1 starter. Minor might top out as a No. 4 man. He’s the kind of good-but-not-great prospect who’s made to go in a deadline deal. He is, to dip into Braves’ history, a Melvin Nieves.
Melvin Nieves was a promising outfielder in a stacked farm system who became the key name in the Fred McGriff trade of July 1993. The Padres wanted Ryan Klesko, who was the prospect of the moment, but the Braves wouldn’t bite. (Nor was John Schuerholz moved to part with Chipper or Javy Lopez or even Mike Kelly or Tony Tarasco. Like I said: Stacked farm system) They held out and got the guy they needed at the price they wanted.
Loading ...The parallel isn’t exact — McGriff didn’t become a free agent until after the Braves won the World Series in 1995, and they had enough money back then to keep him — but it’s close enough. The Braves were good but not good enough in July 1993. (With no wild card back then, they had to catch San Francisco. They did.) Good as these Braves are, they might be one bat short of winning the World Series.
If the Braves don’t land Beltran, they might have to face him in October: The Phillies, Giants and Red Sox are all believed to have similar interest. The Braves saw him in postseason once before. He hit four home runs, three at Turner Field, against them as a rent-an-Astro in 2004. He signed with the Mets for Joe Johnson money that winter.
The Braves helped make Beltran a rich man. If he helps make the Braves a world champ, we’ll call it even.
By Mark Bradley
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313 comments Add your comment
Jfreak13713
July 24th, 2011
4:27 pm
You don’t win the World Series without taking chances that may improve your team TODAY. Minor might turn out to be a really good pitcher but we know Beltran can fill a need for this team now. I would make the move because we Already have two young pitchers (Hanson, Jurjens) in rotation and a couple more that will be ready in a year or two.
However, I don’t think the Braves will land Beltran because I think the Phillies or Red Sox will overpay to get him and the Braves won’t. But with Uggla starting to look like UGGLA and Heyward may also be coming out of a season slump their offense is in better shape today than it was a few weeks ago. If they do nothing they still have a good chance to make playoffs and world series run. Add a nice bat and maybe another arm out of the bullpen and they will be a really hard out!
Go Braves!
joe
July 24th, 2011
4:29 pm
if FG puts Proctor in any meaningful game the rest of this year he should be fired on the spot……..
bravos007
July 24th, 2011
4:29 pm
but, ya know, why would Minor even really want to be a Brave anymore? Maybe it’s best for him to go. It’s clear that all the media and radio folks are so eager for a “big deal”. i am sure he feels expendable to the organization. def not good for him or his confidence. i am starting to support the idea of him leaving b/c he deserves better than this.
bravos007
July 24th, 2011
4:34 pm
@joe- you nailed it. where is the headline on the AJC about Scott Proctor?
and i mean this respectfully to Mark B, but why is everyone so obsessed with Beltran and ignoring the most obvious problem? (i.e.our lack of middle-relief help in the pen) maybe i have missed it, but i haven’t seen a single person ask Fredi or Wren directly- why is scott proctor still pitching? (maybe not that direct, but his name is never specifically mentioned) believe you me, if we were in NYC or Boston, it would be a whoooooole different ballgame because they are vicious about winning.
dap01
July 24th, 2011
4:37 pm
We should not trade a no. 1 pick for a rental with bad health. If that no. 1 is not that good then the scouting department should be blamed.
ryan
July 24th, 2011
4:40 pm
I agree if we are going to make a run at the Phillie’s all we had to give up was Minor i would say do it .
JASon
July 24th, 2011
4:42 pm
“I don’t like trading pitching, but I’d swap Mike Minor for Beltran”
Are you out of your mind? As paramount as pitching has become in this league? The Phillies are the only team in the NL with a better record than us. If it weren’t for a poor start to the season, we would have a better record than them.
DaveinNEPA
July 24th, 2011
4:44 pm
MINOR FOR BELTRAN???????? NO…..NO…..NO…..AND HELL NO!!!!!!!!!!!!
I disagreed with Jeff Schultz and now I’m going to disagree with you too, Mr Bradley.
It’s insanity to give up our only LH ML ready prospect for a 2 month rental with health and durability issues.I couldn’t care less who gets Beltran but not us at that cost. AND…..Beltran is certainly no Fred McGriff. If Philly wants to give up one of their blue chip prospects for him, more power to them.
We already know that Minor can pitch in the MLs. He may not be a top of the rotation guy but he’s certainly good enough to be in somebody’s rotation.
The Braves have a wealth of prospects, not so much as in 93 but we’re stacked in the pitching department. Hudson and Lowe will be gone within a year or two. We’re going to need these young guys at some point. I’m not in favor of trading off any of these guys when the 2012-2015 Braves could very well be better than the 2011 Braves.
If the Braves were to trade Minor for Pence or B.J. Upton, younger guys with some upside and under team control for a longer time than 2 months I might go for that.
bravos007
July 24th, 2011
4:44 pm
do any of you REALLY believe that Beltran is capable o pushing us past the phillies? if you do, you have checked your brain at the door.
johnny bravo
July 24th, 2011
4:52 pm
The braves have a ton of pitching, make a deal with minor included just don’t know about beltran, I hate the mets and wouldn’t want a deal with them, they are other options besides beltran, what’s the latest on pence?
ryan
July 24th, 2011
4:52 pm
I think Beltran is bating around .300 he may not have much speed anymore but the dude can hit i am not saying we will get past Phillies with Beltran but you can try to make a run at them do what ever takes .
bravos007
July 24th, 2011
4:57 pm
keep Minor and play good baseball with what you have
don
July 24th, 2011
4:57 pm
“Minor might turn out to be a great pitcher. But that’s the chance you take.”
The record of the Braves in these rental deals shows a distinct pattern. They have been terrible mistakes. The percentages are high that a Beltran trade would produce a similar result.
The near three-fourths of the voters in the poll who want the trade are the same bunch of lemmings who followed the Braves off the cliff in the Drew and Teixeira trades.
Stinger2
July 24th, 2011
4:58 pm
Bradley: You are getting in late on this particular trade
talk. Nevertheless, some of your dedicated blog pals will
be excited because you have o.k`. this trade. Your opinion is highly respected by some. Thank you for your blog.
Meantime I disagree.
Skeezix
July 24th, 2011
4:59 pm
Our problems going into August/Sept. and the postseason is the same as it has been all year–lack of offense and the bullpen (long and mid relief). I am in 100% agreement with you on this Mark as Beltran will fill a big hole we have in this offense.
Ginger
July 24th, 2011
5:03 pm
Agree with you Mark…I so hate trading good pitching for a 2 month player….great examples in the article…….the key to this trade is how good can Minor become—-if the odds are that he will just be mediocore to ok..then why not trade for Beltran….we need the bat…wish that we could find a good hitter who would be around more that 2 mos….With Beltran it is really like paying rent……Is there a young hitter out there that we could trade a young pitcher–Minor for ????????
rainman
July 24th, 2011
5:03 pm
When you have a valid chance at a World Series — ya gotta go for it!!
Beltran could be the piece we need to insure that our offense at the very least ‘would have the potential’ of being formidable.
If our luck runs good — Chipper will be healthy for the stretch and playoffs and Heyward and Uggla will gain consistensy. Also, adding Beltran would make the DH decision easy if we made it to the Series.
slydog
July 24th, 2011
5:11 pm
Folks, we need hitting in a major way. But certainly not Beltran. Brendan Boesch (Detroit) Hunter Pence (Houston), or Matt Kemp (LA). None of those clubs can afford these players. But we can after this season. Trade Minor and Delgado or Tehran. Medlen or Beachy are both possibilities. We need to start thinking big in this town. We will not win a world series without a significant upgrade to our batting line-up. Jose Reyes is the only game-changer the Mets have. What about him? It won’t happen because of the Braves false belief in stacking pitchers. We need to outhit Philadelphia in the post-season. At best, we can duel them pitching-wise to a draw. Real Talk!!!
waterstim
July 24th, 2011
5:12 pm
WAR DAMN CHEATERS
But it’s ok. Judgement day is right around the corner
Manny
July 24th, 2011
5:13 pm
What about me Braves fans?
DogLoverUGAmuttHater
July 24th, 2011
5:22 pm
life could be worse. Richt could be coaching the Braves.
jojo
July 24th, 2011
5:24 pm
I DON’T KNOW IF ITS BELTRAN,BUT THEY BETTER DO SOMETHING. THEY HAVE FALLEN 5 GAMES OUT AND THEY ARE HITTING UNDER 250 AS A TEAM. THE EVERYDAY OUTFIELDERS COULD NOT A BARN DOOR WITH A CAR.
Roper
July 24th, 2011
5:26 pm
Carlos Beltran isn’t a center fielder.
Carlos Beltran isn’t a center fielder.
Carlos Beltran isn’t a center fielder.
Carlos Beltran isn’t a center fielder.
Carlos Beltran isn’t a center fielder.
JJ
July 24th, 2011
5:36 pm
Someone must be on drugs to actually think the Mets would make this trade straight up. The Mets can do alot better than that. I am sure other teams can offer better and probably already have.
Dawg A
July 24th, 2011
5:39 pm
Mark… what would we have to give up to get Hunter Pence. I have followed him closely the last two years and love the way he plays. He would fit in nicely with the Braves and would help them a lot. And he would not be a rental and is not prone to injury! Please tell me it is possible without giving away our entire minor league prospects!
Peter
July 24th, 2011
5:47 pm
There is one thing that makes me a little uneasy about trading for Beltran. It’s not giving up Minor. It’s not so much losing him this offseason. If we do this, he HAS to be able to play CF. I believe our scouts are down in Miami this weekend checking this exact issue. If he proves he can still play CF on a regular basis, I say do it.
brein128
July 24th, 2011
5:47 pm
The Mets are on record saying that they will pay all of Beltran’s remaining salary, so they get a better prospect in return. Beltran also hasn’t played CF all season and has stated that he’d prefer to stay in a corner OF position.
Milt Famey
July 24th, 2011
5:51 pm
Beltran is not the player he was in 2004. Some folks seem to think he can carry us thru the WS. Maybe he could have back in 2004 but he is no longer a superstar, IMO.
Smoove Criminal
July 24th, 2011
5:53 pm
Nathan
July 24th, 2011
4:26 pm
Mark Bradley there just one thing i would to for beltran to play any field postion if someone one was injured a need at CF we already have our now and future in Jordan Schafer.
————————————–
You need to go get a CAT scan for possible brain damage if you think Jordan Schafer is the Braves’ future in CF. The only reason he is even playing is because the Braves have nobody else in the entire organization that is halfway decent at the position, he’s gotten playing time by default because he’s the best of the worst. I’d be willing to bet my mortgage and 401k that he won’t even be in the organization this time next year.
Peter
July 24th, 2011
5:53 pm
Beltran says that he is willing to discuss moving back to CF but prefers RF. Before we part with a prospect like Minor this is something we have to discuss.
bravobravefan
July 24th, 2011
5:53 pm
Why not offer derek lowe staright up for beltran? Each team pays the salary of the player received. lowe has a sub .500 recoed so we are not giving up a lot and we free up some $$ for next year. We need to start working on long term deals for JJ and TH soon. We could bring up Minor to fill the nr5 hole in the rotation. Next year beltran is gone freeing up $$ for fa shopping.
tmc
July 24th, 2011
5:54 pm
Haven’t we learned?
Haven’t we been burned enough?
YOU DON’T GIVE AWAY TOP PROSPECTS FOR A RENT-A-PLAYER!
Beltran will be somewhere else in 2 months. I don’t want Minor to be the same.
Peter
July 24th, 2011
5:55 pm
bravobravefan, why in the hell would the Mets want Lowe?
Darryl Blackberry
July 24th, 2011
5:55 pm
Would still rather have Hunter Pence. Beltran’s numbers against lefties aren’t all that great.
brein128
July 24th, 2011
5:57 pm
hahah you really think the Mets would do a Lowe for Beltran trade? ESPN is saying that the Mets will get a high rated prospect and at least one mid-level prospect for Beltran after they pay his remaining salary. Minor for Beltran straight up will probably not be enough.
Randy J.
July 24th, 2011
5:57 pm
Well said country boy
Luv 2 Hate Me
July 24th, 2011
5:57 pm
Beltran is having a unusual year and he may go down with another injury. I say go after Kemp and your sure to get a winner not just only now but for the future.
ted williams head
July 24th, 2011
5:57 pm
same take Bill Shanks on 1670 Macon radio had back on Fri. you must listen to him
TM
July 24th, 2011
5:58 pm
NO-NO-NO!
If Beltran were under contract for 2 or 3 years, maybe.
But, he is a free agent in 2 months and will not be here…
Don’t do it!
Whatever happened to Chip Towers?
July 24th, 2011
5:59 pm
What are Beltrans numbers this year and last year? Thanks
Scooter
July 24th, 2011
5:59 pm
longtimefan
July 24th, 2011
3:46 pm
How much better will Beltran possibly be than the two options we already have? Will those extra few homers and hits for 2 months and hopefully in the postseason be worth years of salary controlled left handed starting pitching?
…Not to pick on you but ARE YOU SERIOUS? You wonder if Beltran would be better than McLouth or Schafer? REALLY? I understand the “lets hold on to everybody” but I want to win a World Series and we have a surplus of young talented pitchers. Now is the time to make a trade.
For the record, I still would rather get Coco Crisp but I haven’t heard any talks about that in a while.
Stanley Crowe
July 24th, 2011
5:59 pm
I like Carlos Beltran, but I think he’s on the downside of his career — which isn’t to deny that he could be effective in the short term. BUT — we need pitching more. Minor is a viable lefty, and I think he’s going to be good. In fact, we could use him later this year. What we need now is a replacement for Scott Proctor (the current filler of what I think of as the Moylan slot) — a reliable, late-inning companion for Linebrink. As for the outfield — Nate’s and Jordan’s numbers aren’t great, but I think they’ll get better, and both are a heck of a lot better defensively than Carlos in his current state, which isn’t terrible but isn’t what it was in his great days.
TommyP
July 24th, 2011
6:01 pm
He hasn’t played 1 inning in CF since returning from injury.
He’s a RF, Bradley.
Manny Sanguillen Was Not A Korean
July 24th, 2011
6:01 pm
No, no, no, no and NO.
Package Minor together with a position player and make this deal in the off-season. Beltran is simply not worth the risk. If we trade, do it with gusto. Go after a Bourne or Pence, throw in a name or two, and improve the team over the long haul. This deal reeks of desperation. We are not desperate.
Honest Ingine
July 24th, 2011
6:02 pm
Beltran is washed up… No more action from this guy…dont need him, but we will need Minor’s arm in Sept – October.
BoriBrave!
July 24th, 2011
6:04 pm
Hell Yes!!! Make the deal!!!
Joe Jackson
July 24th, 2011
6:05 pm
Say it ain’t so… We will need him in a couple of years, if not in Sept….
Scooter
July 24th, 2011
6:05 pm
Beltran’s Profile and Stats
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6132
Dano
July 24th, 2011
6:05 pm
Trading one of your best pitching prospects for an injury-prone outfielder who won’t even be on the team next is about the dumbest thing I ever heard. You have two aging picthers in the rotation now who will need to be replaced in the near future. We need him. If we could get some production from these high-priced free agents we already have we would be more than fine. We have the 2nd best record in the NL. STAY THE COURSE!!!!!!!!!
Scooter
July 24th, 2011
6:09 pm
Beltran’s Stats so those of you who are making random “he’s too old” claims will look at stats and not personal feelings.
Beltran Batting Last 3 years
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2009 NYM 81 308 50 100 22 1 10 48 47 43 11 1 .325 .415 .500 .915
2010 NYM 64 220 21 56 11 3 7 27 30 39 3 1 .255 .341 .427 .768
2011 NYM 95 344 57 100 30 2 15 63 57 60 3 0 .291 .393 .520 .913