Q: Should the Braves trade Jair Jurrjens? A: Are you NUTS?
Better trade this guy before he messes up and breaks too many records. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
Usually Braves fans posit trades in this fanciful way: “Greg Norton for Albert Pujols — that’d be a great move!” But here, courtesy of Buster Olney and his ESPN Insider blog, we have something different. We have baseball people asking if the Braves would consider trading Jair Jurrjens.
Writes Olney (link requires registration):
Some rival executives have wondered if that pitching depth would allow Atlanta to consider a very bold move with a pitcher whose stock has reached its zenith — Jair Jurrjens, who is 10-3 with a 2.07 ERA and a midseason candidate for the Cy Young Award. If the Braves actually dangled Jurrjens in the market, they could put themselves in position to get an impact offensive position player in return.
Just to reiterate: All the discussion among rival evaluators about Jurrjens is pure speculation.
Well, thank heavens. The Braves have had many good pitchers over the past 20 years, but not many have ever been better over half a season than J.J. in the year 2011. As Joe Lemire notes on SI.com, since 1990 only four starting pitchers have finished a season with an ERA under 2.00 — Greg Maddux twice, Pedro Martinez twice, Roger Clemens twice and Kevin Brown once. Jurrjens is, as Olney mentioned, at 2.07.
Oh, and there’s this: He’s 25 years old! He’s arbitration-eligible again after this season — he and the Braves settled for $3.25 million over the winter — but he won’t be eligible to become a free agent until after the 2013 season. (Yes, his agent is Scott Boras.) He can be the ace of this superb staff for at least two more years.
I know, I know. His trade value will never be higher than it is today. Neither will Brian McCann’s, and I’d suggest the Braves hang on to him, too.
As for Kenshin Kawakami … I might part with him if the Rangers offered Josh Hamilton. Might, I said.
By Mark Bradley
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270 comments Add your comment
jrn
June 30th, 2011
4:58 pm
chipper, mccout, lowe, kk are all coming off the books in the next 2 yrs the braves are in a great spot if they dont do something crazy(trade jj). we need a real owner
braveshoo
June 30th, 2011
5:01 pm
Pitching is 85% of winning. You dont trade your best pitcher. We can use KK and McClouth money to pay JJ and Hanson next year, and Lowe and Hudson money to sign them longterm in 2012. Uggla will hit in the 2nd half, and we will have Prado back, and all this talk about another bat will stop. Both Gonzo and JS are great defensively, so leave them alone. JS, Heyward and FF are all young and will get better and better with time and experience. This year we will get Moylan and Medlin back to help the BP in Sept, and this is already a major strength. In 2013 our rotation is JJ, Hanson, Beachy, Minor/ Medlin, and Tehran/ Delgado. FW is setting us up to be really good for a long time, and you dont mess that up for any shorterm benefit. Remember the Texiera trade!!!!!!
jrn
June 30th, 2011
5:01 pm
@ bob true but he is young and has what cant be taught.instincts
KB
June 30th, 2011
5:02 pm
How about some package of Lowe, Beachy, Minor, Teheran for New York’s Reyes? (Might as well throw in Gonzalez at short, too). It gives the Mets the arms they’ll need in the future and the Braves a much better shot this year.
NorCalBrave
June 30th, 2011
5:02 pm
Acquiring JJ from Detroit was best trade of last half dozen years. I get nervous thinking about how much pitching talent we might part with to get a bat. From Uggla, to McClouth, to Ryan Church to Derrek Lee, I can’t think of any deals to boost hitting production that have gone well lately. Hinske and Ross have been terrific role players, but I would aim a little lower than a Matt Kemp or a Jose Reyes if that means giving up top of the line pitching.
jrn
June 30th, 2011
5:05 pm
by the way medlin seems to have what it takes to, i remember watching him and thinking he knows how to (pitch)
Will
June 30th, 2011
5:07 pm
Without a doubt make the trade if we can. I dont see Jurjjens staying healthy for long and being a long time fit here. Great player and fantastic right now, but could bring in even better offense ( Which is what we need ). Great thing about being a braves fan is our farm system, we have surplus of pitching right now.
Frank M from LA
June 30th, 2011
5:08 pm
jrn, did you say the Braves need a new owner? I expect to be looking for a team to purchase soon.
jrn
June 30th, 2011
5:10 pm
we missed the boat when we didnt go after a. gonz
jrn
June 30th, 2011
5:12 pm
frank m from la sweet when can u start could u bring kemp with
Frank M from LA
June 30th, 2011
5:21 pm
Not sure if they will let me but how about Grissom and Manny? A CF + a right handed bat. What more could you want?
IlliniBrave
June 30th, 2011
5:22 pm
@beauvighn:
“BTW, I wouldn’t urinate on Scott Boras if he was on fire.”
Damn, that is funny as hell! I could not stop laughing!
Lowcountry Bulldawg
June 30th, 2011
5:22 pm
Jose Bautista, again it gives you a 3B for when Chipper needs to sit and a RF,LF to spell Heyward and Prado. Also Prado then can move to 2B to spell Uggla and this lets Bautista play LF. Also with his production his 65million/5 year deal looks like a bargain.
Heisenberg
June 30th, 2011
5:29 pm
Bautista is tempting but the last guy we got from Toronto who was hitting a bunch of taters is not hitting so many in the ATL. Better take a closer look at the home/road splits to make sure homer friendly ballpark is not inflating the numbers.
JC Boscan III
June 30th, 2011
5:41 pm
Trading JJ would be foolish, but standing pat with the current roster (no offense to Pat) might lead to a blown opportunity to make the World Series and even WIN it. There’s no dominant major league team this year. But, the current Braves offense seems almost incapable of doing the little things necessary to win when the pitching gives up more than 2 runs (stuff like bunting, hit and run, taking the outer-half pitch to the opposite field, NOT flailing at outside breaking balls, etc.).
JS isn’t getting on base consistently enough to be THE leadoff hitter. Prado isn’t the ideal leadoff man, either, due to a lack of speed. Heyward needs to bat much lower in the lineup until he gets his swing back. I wonder if ANY major league team has weaker combined batting averages in the top 2 lineup spots………!
Our 2nd tier of minor league pitchers (JJ Hoover, Todd Redmond, B. Oberholtzer, E. Cordier, Carlos Perez, etc.) are probably better than many organization’s best prospects. 2-3 mid-level pitching prospects should be enough to get, at worst, a decent right-handed bat to come off the bench and to start somewhere against the lefties that Heyward, Uggla and others just aren’t hitting….. That might be the best FW will do this year……..if anything……. GO Braves….!
Mark's for the Braves
June 30th, 2011
5:48 pm
Trading JJ is out of the question. Medlen, Minor and especially Lowe I can see, but you’d better get a good stick for any of them.
Time
June 30th, 2011
6:19 pm
If you can get a legitimate impact bat (Matt Kemp, Justin Upton) that will resign extension in Atlanta upon arrival, then yes you do trade Jurrjens. Anything less than a real middle of the order beast then it’s a no.
Want to trade pitching for a bat? Tommy's your man.
June 30th, 2011
6:20 pm
Tommy Hanson is the most overrated pitcher on our staff. We have young guns like Beachy and Minor, not to mention ole Kris Medlen coming back. Hanson was supposed to be the next big thing, a guy who could strike out 10 repeatedly, throw 200 innings and win 20 games. Turns out, he’s a middle of the line pitcher in our rotation. Let him be someone else’s disappointment. Trade him for a solid LF. Do it in a heartbeat.
ChicagoBrave
June 30th, 2011
6:29 pm
@Want to trade pitching for a bat? Tomm’y your man
Do you watch baseball, or take the time to look at player’s stats before you pollute this blog with those comments?
Career Numbers: ERA 3.05 WHIP 1.06 8.2 K/9 and he pitched 202.2 IN last year, and is on pace to surpass those career numbers this year…oh yeah, he’s also 24 years old. What is there to be disappointed about?
TruthSeeker
June 30th, 2011
6:42 pm
A Jurrjens-for-Kemp deal would make a lot of sense for the Braves. As great as Jurrjens is, we’d still have a borderline elite rotation without him.
That said, I wouldn’t do it, even if the Dodgers were willing. An ace pitcher is still the rarest commodity in baseball. And, Jurrjens, I do believe, is an ace. I compare him to a right-handed Tom Glavine. He may not dazzle with overpowering stuff or big strikeout numbers, but he can locate the down and away fastball as consistently as anyone in the game.
Peter
June 30th, 2011
6:47 pm
I don’t want to see them give up ANY of the young arms this season. Next year or future years, probably, I mean we don’t have room for them all. But not this year. This year we have a special team that can win it all. I mean the offense hasn’t hit at all yet, and it will, but we still have the 3rd best record in baseball!! There is no need for anything drastic.
vermont 39
June 30th, 2011
6:54 pm
Never trade inside your own league…especially inside your own division!!!
Columbus
June 30th, 2011
6:57 pm
Did not want him traded before the year, now next year, the year after or the next 5 years! He is young and shown at the beginning of his career that he was special and could be the ace of the staff…would you want to have traded Glavine, Smoltz, Maddox when they had an injury, or an off year when they were 25 too? People do not know baseball. Without pitching, you have NO chance. The more the better! You must PAY a power hitter also more than we pay JJ. NEVER trade JJ, or Hanson or Beachy the nect 5 years!
Mr Charlie
June 30th, 2011
7:01 pm
NNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
AFAN
June 30th, 2011
7:05 pm
STOP saying KEMP! The dodgers wont be making any deals period. they are in ownership limbo…geez
Bob the Blogger
June 30th, 2011
7:06 pm
The only way I would trade JJ would be if I thought that Boris was going to try to get $20 million a year for him. Even though his trade value will be going down as his free agency approaches, we have to consider that Lowe will be leaving, Tim Hudson’s age, and Terehan isn’t an experienced ML pitcher yet. Aces don’t come along very often.
Mr Charlie
June 30th, 2011
7:08 pm
Did we trade Smoltz after 2003? Did we trade Glavine after 2005? We might have a big 3 better than the big 3. There is a reason we have records that compare with the Red Sox, Yankees, and Phillies, teams with payrolls 2x ours….and it ain’t Dan.
Mr Charlie
June 30th, 2011
7:10 pm
Bob, we have JJ, Beachy, and Hanson. Plus we got Medlin, and Minor. If JJ commands 20mil a year, just imagine what he is gonna do in the next few years.
Mike
June 30th, 2011
7:14 pm
Not Jair but surely Derek Lowe while he still has some value.
Lowcountry Bulldawg
June 30th, 2011
7:16 pm
Before you talk moving Hanson go look inside his numbers. The young man is a beast. Hanson is by far and away the anchor of this staff for the next 7-10 years. Baseball is not all about W’s and ERA.
McDawg
June 30th, 2011
7:20 pm
bats are hot and cold but pitching is gold
nique
June 30th, 2011
7:25 pm
Can’t imagine a team with a chance at winning the WS trading its ace. I’m sure that’s never happened.
Paddy
June 30th, 2011
7:26 pm
The only folks that would trade JJ are the same folks on this blog during spring traing said, dump this guy, he’s finished. Some even went so far as to say release him outright.
Paddy
June 30th, 2011
7:27 pm
Sonny Clusters….Dave Pursley has been retired for 3 years now.
Notso Fast
June 30th, 2011
7:39 pm
I was for a trade before the season but now it would have to be a deal loaded with can’t miss prospects. The Braves seem to have a farm system with picting prospects but very few position players that are near ready. I don’t think that this present team can go all the way and I don’t see a 3rd baseman or outfielder that could lead this team in our system.
G. Tampa Bedwetter
June 30th, 2011
7:50 pm
Give Larry away ……… He lays out 25% of the time and belittles teammates when they need a rest.
OldTimer
June 30th, 2011
8:06 pm
Been pissed off with the Braves for a while. They are starting to get it together though. No trades are necessary. They can take the Phillies as is.
Kevin
June 30th, 2011
8:21 pm
Better Trade Atlanta Sprit LLC for albert Pulijos and 20,000,000…Be best bet to me u think i goin see hawks never at Philips arena run by those clods…Oh and NBA on strike lets see how long Mayor reed runs to keep hawks here but a word when thrashers left!Oh sorry we Talkin baseball here oh why Braves sweep weekend series be 50-35 after sunday here at home…We in 2nd place this not washington are Ny are florida is it…stay tune when braves win worldseries too
SAL
June 30th, 2011
8:30 pm
199rd
Milo Hamilton aka OldTimer
June 30th, 2011
8:32 pm
There’s a drive…
Ronald Millsaps
June 30th, 2011
8:52 pm
Let’s not throw around “jeez”, “holy”, and all the crudeness.
Trading Jair only would be reasonable if we got serious return for him. Mark makes a better argument; we have him locked up through 2013. He’s 25, and folks, who says he won’t improve?
I would trade Heyward first.
Chipper's ACL
June 30th, 2011
8:52 pm
We’ll have issues keeping JJ and Tommy with Boras as their agent. Our track record with him is less than satisfactory. Neither should be let go at this time. Actually I doubt any ML arms will be traded prior to the off season. I’m sure the Yankees would be willing to take Huddy and may entertain Lowe, but at a low price. Does it really matter what we got in return for Lowe? A salary dump is worth the trade. So all the OF names tossed around this blog will do what for us? Team chemistry is too important and pulling out one of our starting position players right now would do more harm than good. Now if the Uggla deal had not been made then sure a power OF would be worth a look. Maybe a roll, multi purpose player would be a plus. A Zobrist or Swisher. This team is right at the edge and could swing to be very good or fall in the toilet.
Now back to the pitching blog. There will be two needs moving onto next season. LF, assuming Jones is gone, and SS. Now assuming Wren will fill those needs via trades theres one area we should address, LH starter. Minor hasn’t shown the consistancy needed to remain in the rotation. A trade for a solid lefty would complete the staff. That’s where a trade of JJ or Tommy may come into play. The next few months will be interesting.
Ronald Millsaps
June 30th, 2011
8:53 pm
Let’s make no trades. Keep the team as it is, and perhaps pursue Jose Reyes in the offseason.
darren
June 30th, 2011
8:53 pm
Mark, I live in Laguna Beach California but grew up in Atlanta. I go online everyday and read AJC Sports. I have been reading your articles for years (decades). I don’t know your job as you don’t know mine but Damm is this all you can come up with in eight hours. Mark you have the best job in the world other than a professional athlete. Please drive up to UGA or go to flowery Branch and get us some much needed information on our teams.Please provide us a story that requires research and access that we don’t have.
Thanks (a loyal reader)
Ronald Millsaps
June 30th, 2011
8:54 pm
In response to the recent McCann article, he might be our second-best player over the past two decades, but ranking him ahead of McGriff, Justice, etc. is questionable.
The Monger
June 30th, 2011
9:21 pm
You guys are IDIOTS if you want to trade JJ, or any of our GREAT depth of starting pitching. Right now we have like 10 good major league quality starting pitchers- Lowe, Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, Beachy, Minor, Teheran, Medlen, Delgado, and Vizcaino. Plus we have our first round draft choice, that kid from florida state, who will be ready in a year or two. Thats 11, and we need every one, so we can rebuild a dynasty like the 90s and early 2000s Braves had with Great and Deep pitching. You all have seen how deep a staff must be just by watching this years Braves-we have already used 8 starting pitchers, our top 5 plus Minor, Teheran, and Delgado already, and the season isnt even half over, so yes we need these guys to be dominant.
I have already stated that I dont think this offense is too far away- I am dissapointed so far too. But I do believe Heyward, Uggla, and McLouth to some degree will turn it around in the 2nd half. That right there will improve the offense tenfold, and I think Chipper needs to be moved lower in the order, but it wont happen. Freeman is gonna be ROY, and once we get back Prado, we will have a good offense again. Our bench is deep with Conrad, Ross, and Hinske. If we add a high average bat, and make a few sensible moves with the young guys coming up, we will make it to holding that WS trophy yet again, just be patient. A good bat for this team would be a Michael Bourn (dream scenario), but any good, speedy outfielder will do…
ASG = JERKS
June 30th, 2011
9:29 pm
Screw the Atlanta Spirit Group and the Hawks.
Nick n Richmond
June 30th, 2011
9:40 pm
With Minor and Teheran almost there, and Medlen coming back….I think the Braves should pull the trigger on JJ this winter…I think a team like the Indians may be interested, especially if they gave us Lonnie Chisenhall to be the 3B of future, and Grady Sizemore for CF
kirkinga
June 30th, 2011
9:47 pm
JJ> Beachy, Minor, Medlen, or anyone in the minors.
So how do you replace JJ? You don’t give away a #1-2 a plug in some dude with encouraging minor league experience.
Best that Chipper retire after the season and allow the Braves to use at least some money to get a bat or pay for the outstanding pitching they already have.
GT2010
June 30th, 2011
9:55 pm
Hell NO!!!