Bradley’s grid picks: Tech wins eight; UGA wins the SEC East
My credo. (AJC photo by Ben Gray, doctored by Mandi Albright)
Six months ago I wouldn’t have imagined this pick, but here it is: Georgia will go 10-2 and win the SEC East. And how’s that for a snappy beginning to our annual long-range look at college football?
What changed my mind about Georgia? The Dream Team. I’m not the biggest believer in recruiting rankings, but this class rekindled a fire that, after 8-5 followed by 6-7, was down to embers.
Six months ago I saw a program that had run out of ideas. (How do you not score a touchdown against Central Florida?) Today I see a team primed to seize its opportunity. The SEC East is as rickety as it has ever been: Urban Meyer is gone from Florida, Tennessee is in flux and South Carolina’s breakthrough season — the Gamecocks finally won the division — fizzled at its end.
Georgia’s schedule sets up beautifully. The Bulldogs open against a team that figures to be ranked among the nation’s top five, but the team is Boise State (meaning: less talented than Georgia) and the game is in the Georgia Dome. The next week South Carolina comes to Athens. After winning those two games, the Bulldogs will find themselves in the Top 10.
Their two losses? Even with Florida under new management, one will come against the Gators. (One Georgia loss always comes against the Gators.) The other will come against Mississippi State even though the game is in Athens. (I’m not sure the fourth-best team in the SEC West couldn’t win the East.) As for Georgia’s opponent in the SEC title game … well, keep reading.
• Georgia Tech will tighten up on offense and defense — fewer turnovers, fewer points allowed. This will enable the Jackets to go 8-4 and finish third, behind Virginia Tech and Miami, in the ACC Coastal. They’ll miss Joshua Nesbitt but profit from a kinder schedule. They don’t play Florida State. They get North Carolina, Maryland and Clemson here, and they should win two of those. They get N.C. State, Miami, Virginia and Duke on the road, and they can win at least two of those.
• Andrew Luck, the Stanford quarterback who spurned the NFL, will win the Heisman Trophy.
• Nebraska, new to the Big Ten, will win the Big Ten (now up to 12 members). Ohio State, as you may have heard, has issues.
• With Nebraska gone and Texas in retreat, Oklahoma will tear through the Big 12 (now down to 10) and finish first in the BCS standings.
I foresee a great leap forward. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
• As big as the Georgia-Boise game is to us around here, it will pale in comparison nationally to the other neutral-site game of Sept. 3: LSU-Oregon in Arlington, Texas. LSU 34, Oregon 31.
• Boise State won’t lose after Sept. 3, but from a national perspective it won’t matter. Boise State registers only when unbeaten.
• Auburn goes from 14-0 and the BCS title to 7-5 and fifth in the SEC West. That’s unless Russell Wilson, the baseball-playing quarterback who was released from his scholarship by N. C. State, chooses the Tigers over Wisconsin. Should that happen, bump the Tigers up to 8-4 and fourth. Wilson isn’t Cam Newton, but he’s good.
• Florida State will lose to Oklahoma in Tallahassee on Sept. 17 but will run through the ACC undefeated, beating Virginia Tech in the conference title game (now housed in Charlotte).
• Florida will beat Georgia and still finish 7-5. The Gators must play Alabama and LSU. (Georgia gets neither.) The odd Will Muschamp-Charlie Weis alliance will be in tatters by Halloween.
The string of losing seasons ends at one. (AJC photo by Johnny Crawford)
• South Carolina will go 10-2 — its other loss will be to Arkansas — and lose the division title on the head-to-head tiebreaker.
• Tennessee will finish 6-6. Its new athletic director, whoever he/she is, will not be pleased.
• Utah will win the South Division of the newly configured Pac-12. Stanford will win the North because its biggest game — Oregon on Nov. 12 — is at home. Lane Kiffin and Southern Cal will finish 7-5, if anyone still cares.
• As for the SEC West … Alabama has the better schedule, but LSU has the better team. The Tigers will lose early at Mississippi State but not again. They’ll take down Alabama, which won’t lose to anybody else, in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 5. I see LSU beating Georgia for the SEC championship and Oklahoma in the BCS title game, which will, conveniently enough, be staged in New Orleans.
• Georgia State will go 8-3. It will, however, lose 51-10 at Houston on Sept. 24. Which, when you consider the Panthers lost 63-7 at Alabama last season, will be a sign of progress.
• After the doings of this offseason — Auburn’s trees, the Fiesta Bowl follies, the fall of Jim Tressel and the weirdness at West Virginia — the games themselves will seem almost staid. Even Tech versus Georgia will be nothing special. The Bulldogs will win by two touchdowns.
By Mark Bradley
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746 comments Add your comment
Dunder
June 11th, 2011
1:30 pm
In last 4 seasons, UGA’s is trending down.
11 wins in 07′
10 wins in 08′
8 wins in 09′
6 wins in 10′
You’d have to be beyond common sense to not see that trend. And it’s a problem. Means Richt doesn’t know how to fix it.
Additionally, UGA has never had a winning season, since 1980, with a freshman starting at RB.
Dunder
June 11th, 2011
1:52 pm
Since 1992, that’s almost 30 years, UGA has only had 2 1000 yards rushers, Musa and Moreno. Both 2002 & 2007, got a 1000 yard ruser. Both were great seasons.
Only happened 2 of the 25 rb’s Richt has worked with at UGA. So, 8% of backs go on to become 1000 yard rushers under Richt. 92% don’t.
Since 1992, in 19 years, 1 out of 19 years, a true freshman RB got 1000 yards–mus Smith did it in 2002, Moreno was a redshirt freshman in 2007.
Odds 1 out 19 a true freshman, like Crowell, will rush for 1000 yards.
6% chance Crowell rushes for 1000 yards+ as atrue freshman at UGA.
94% chance he won’t.
UGA was 10th in SEC in rushing last season.
AltamahaDawg
June 11th, 2011
1:55 pm
Wecome back BuLLdawg.
AltamahaDawg
June 11th, 2011
1:56 pm
As if you weren’t already posting under 39 different names.
Jimbo
June 11th, 2011
2:04 pm
Dunder,
Just terrific stuff. Why is no one else talking about this? Yu should have your own talk show? Genius.
SEC Observer
June 11th, 2011
2:05 pm
UGA still has Richt. Dogs finish behind S. Carolina. The only reason they finish ahead of Florida is because the Gators play Alabama and LSU. Yet Florida will beat the Dogs.
Then we’ll be hearing once again in the Spring of 2012 how the Dawgs will play in the SECCG.
OP
June 11th, 2011
2:05 pm
Dunder, didn’t realize how bad Richt’s been against the better teams, but you’re right, if he can’t reverse this train, it’s over for Richt. Trainwreck coming soon.
DTown
June 11th, 2011
2:07 pm
Hey dunder,
my point exactly. richt runs up the score on bad teams, and then can’t score enough against good ones. 10th in scoring against teams with a winning record? 10th, WITH aj gREEN?
Gen Neyland
June 11th, 2011
2:07 pm
AltDawg : He’s back..? Was the first clue an 0300 hr manifesto..?
mo
June 11th, 2011
2:09 pm
dunder, true, 2002 & 2007, richt’s best 2 years, got a 1000 yard rusher, nonoe of this platoon garbage. the platoon garbage needs to be retired.
Old Blu
June 11th, 2011
2:11 pm
Dunder:
Yes on rushing. We’re 44-3 when we get a 100 yard rusher under Richt but he keeps trying to win by passing the ball.
Dunder
June 11th, 2011
2:17 pm
Well, when you’re 10th in SEC in scoring vs. winning teams, 8th vs. ranked teams, out of 12 SEC teams, your strategy is wrong. That’s why I don’t see much changing because Richt thinks he doesn’t need to change his strategy. My thing is, if Richt couldn’t make his West Coast passing style work with AJ & Durham & Charles, still was 10th in SEC in scoring against winning teams out of 12 SEC teams, then it’s not going to work without AJ & Durham, 2 NFL draft picks. The last 4 SEC winners ALL got over 215+ rushing per game on average, Richt’s down around 140.
AltamahaDawg
June 11th, 2011
2:17 pm
“Since 1992, that’s almost 30 years……,” no kidding?
But thanks for pointing out that Richt has been the only guy at Georgia in (its 18 seasons actually), to have produced very good RBs.
Althought if you really wanted you percentages to means anything , it’s 1 out of 10 for the TF, since I am sure you agenda is more about Richt than anything else.
Ignoring of cource Moreno did it twice, so now thats 3, and a couple other were close, so half the time he does have a very productive single back, AND more imprortantly his teams have always had 2000-2500 combined rushing yards, so unless you just are in love with a single guy getting 1000 yards, you really haven’t made much of a point.
Except that true freshman are going to be true freshman. Was somebody saying anything different?
AltamahaDawg
June 11th, 2011
2:20 pm
I sort of suspected he was here all along General. but when I saw his signature anti-Georgia rant over on the blog was was suppose to congradulate the new signee FB, its kind of hard to ignore.
Dunder
June 11th, 2011
2:21 pm
Against teams with winning records, Richt only got 100 yards rushing per game.
Good for 11th in SEC.
http://www.cfbstats.com/2010/leader/911/team/offense/split09/category01/sort01.html
AltamahaDawg
June 11th, 2011
2:25 pm
Richt runs the ball 60% of the time , just like every other SEC coach.
OP
June 11th, 2011
2:27 pm
Wow, 11th in SEC in rushing? That’s horrible! SOmebody needs to be fired!!
Dunder
June 11th, 2011
2:28 pm
Richt is 12th in SEC, out of 12 teams, in rush attempts per game against winning teams:
http://www.cfbstats.com/2010/leader/911/team/offense/split09/category01/sort05.html
AltamahaDawg
June 11th, 2011
2:30 pm
Maybe that was why he was 6-7 last year. Might also be why his record much better when he in the top half of the league in 4 of the other 5 yrs listed in that link? ya think?
My conclusion is that he needs to get his team to rush better against good team like did those 4 years, (and I am guessing its more like 8 or 9 years out of 10 if that graphic went back) and not the one time.
Dunder
June 11th, 2011
2:31 pm
Richt passes 10 more times per game, against winning teams, than Aub or LSU did:
http://www.cfbstats.com/2010/leader/911/team/offense/split09/category02/sort05.html
Old Blu
June 11th, 2011
2:33 pm
Right on Dunder, the pass oriented strategy against winning teams is fatally flawed. The strategy is wrong.
sports fan
June 11th, 2011
2:34 pm
Mark Bradley predicts 10-2, the kiss of death…
mo
June 11th, 2011
2:35 pm
why can’t richt go back to what worked in 2002 & 2007, when he had 1000 yard rushers, instead of the platoon disaster?
AltamahaDawg
June 11th, 2011
2:37 pm
31.83 vs 32. good lord.
The majority of the conference was seperated by attempts I could count on one hand in that graph.
Personally, I though we attempted too many runs last year. It was obviously not working.
AUinATL
June 11th, 2011
2:39 pm
UGA winning the East is wishful thinking. Possible but not likely. Essentially the same 6-7 team minus some stars. I can see LSU coming out of the west. Doubt anyone goes undefeated in the SEC. Looks like all the top teams are in the west and will bump each other. A lower tier team (UK, UM, UV) will beat at least 1 team in an upset.
AltamahaDawg
June 11th, 2011
2:42 pm
UGA was also 11th in TOTAL plays runs, of cource they were near the bottom of Rushing attempts.
Dunder
June 11th, 2011
2:44 pm
Nope, that theory of less plays per game, therefore low in pass and run plays per game doesn’t work, because Richt was 5th in pass plays per game, but 12 in rush plays per game, against winning teams:
http://www.cfbstats.com/2010/leader/911/team/offense/split09/category02/sort05.html
Dunder
June 11th, 2011
2:49 pm
Last 4 SEC Champs, all averaged over 40 rush attempts per game against winning teams. Richt did in 2007, one of his best years at Georgia.
http://www.cfbstats.com/2010/leader/911/team/offense/split09/category02/sort05.html
Henry
June 11th, 2011
2:52 pm
Whoever posted this http://coachesbythenumbers.com website.
T H A N K Y O U.
Great website.
AltamahaDawg
June 11th, 2011
2:52 pm
I never said say he was low in passing attempts. YOU said he was low in rushing attempts , (trying to make some philosophical point I suppose, which fails every otehr year of his career) and I am pointing out if he had more plays in total, which would have evened this team out with the rest of the league, his rushing attempts would also have been higher. And his passing attempts. So?
It’s not a theory. It’s basic math. .56(+1) is a positive number.
Hairy Dawg
June 11th, 2011
3:01 pm
Finally a good article on Dawgs. This proves Dawgs returning to dominants. We goning to make Visor Boy Stevie Wonder pay for last year. And traitor Muschamps and flabby Wiess is taling Gaytors to toilets. This is Dawgs year to winning SEC and that means BCS title to. All them that tried to hot sit Coach Richt can pay with the casting out. Richt + S = Christ and that makes God on our side for Dawgs as best.
We also goning continues running ownership of state like Bradley saying. Dawgs has talent to running tables with season. We reloaded with recruiting talents while bugs got chumps. How we can’t have brite future with stockpiles in Athens. Dream Team put Dawgs over top with real mens as not the boys of Boise.
Mark iR is a dumbass
June 11th, 2011
3:03 pm
You have lost your mind. UGA won’t even sniff at an east title. This program has been on the decline for several years, its not going to turn around in one…considering they’re being lead by a moron
AltamahaDawg
June 11th, 2011
3:07 pm
You are seriously trying to compare the 2010 UGA offense with a freshman and that O-line to a spread offense run by Cam Newton of Tim Tebow, and make some point that it all came down to Mark Richt not wanting to run the ball????? good heavens.
And no, the Georgia coach probably didn’t feel as good about the rushing game last year as Alabama did with their Heisman running behind all SEC linemen.
ugaclassof2004
June 11th, 2011
3:15 pm
My prediction:
UGA loses to both Boise State and South Carolina to start season 0-2, and everyone will be losing their mind and calling for Richt’s head. Then Richt will go on a 7 game win streak with one of those wins being over a crappy Florida team. We will then start thinking we are better than we are and then lose at home to a lousy Auburn team( who coincidentally has a bye week before they play us). We will then clinch the East the next week with a win over Kentucky. There is a chance that South Carolina will have lost 3 conference games by then because they are South Carolina, and well… choking is what they do. So should the Dawgs clinch the East, they will probably be looking ahead to the SEC title game… which means they’ll probably half a$$ around vs. an inferior Tech team, and lose.
At 8-4,the Dawgs will then limb into the GA Dome with zero momentum for the SEC title game, where they will proceed to get curb stomped by Alabama. Dawgs will then finish the season with a meaningless win over a Big 10 team in the Outback Bowl for a final 9-5 record. This of course means that Richt will get to stay, which will further prolong the agony.
THWG
June 11th, 2011
3:17 pm
10-2 for the Mutts!? Bark Madley–you make me laugh.
powerhouse?
June 11th, 2011
3:21 pm
with friends like BuLL, y’all do not need any enemies…
THWG
June 11th, 2011
3:23 pm
The spelling & Grammar errors in this post make me laugh. Plus just the fact that he agrees with “Bark”
Hairy Dawg
June 11th, 2011
3:01 pm
Finally a good article on Dawgs. This proves Dawgs returning to dominants. We goning to make Visor Boy Stevie Wonder pay for last year. And traitor Muschamps and flabby Wiess is taling Gaytors to toilets. This is Dawgs year to winning SEC and that means BCS title to. All them that tried to hot sit Coach Richt can pay with the casting out. Richt + S = Christ and that makes God on our side for Dawgs as best.
We also goning continues running ownership of state like Bradley saying. Dawgs has talent to running tables with season. We reloaded with recruiting talents while bugs got chumps. How we can’t have brite future with stockpiles in Athens. Dream Team put Dawgs over top with real mens as not the boys of Boise.
@2004
June 11th, 2011
3:32 pm
Dogs might lose to Tech…but Tech will not be the inferior team.
King Gator
June 11th, 2011
3:42 pm
At least you’ll get one of these predictions right…. Yup, Gators over Dawgs again. Go Gators!
jumbeauxtiger
June 11th, 2011
4:03 pm
Enter your comments here
jumbeauxtiger
June 11th, 2011
4:08 pm
I think SC has too much coming back on offense and wins the East.
LSU’s schedule is too tough. I see Bama winning the West and the SECCG.
DawginLex, I will take you on up on Arkansas and Miss St beating LSU. Put your money where your mouth is
Robards
June 11th, 2011
4:08 pm
Wishful thinking, Mark. 8-4.
Dawgma11
June 11th, 2011
4:24 pm
To be honest I’m not worried about Boise St. and I hope the dawgs aren’t either ! The Boise St. team that will be walking into the Ga Dome in september, isn’t as talented as The Boise st.team from last season that was up 21-7 on Nevada,but was later shutdown and chocked big time with a loss, while a possible championship bid was on the line!Lol. This game is a lose-lose situation for GA and when UGA spanks them like they did that “powerhouse” Hawaii team and their prolific offense that everybody was hyping up, the dawgs will get zero credit for it except for a bump in the rankings…
Dawgma11
June 11th, 2011
4:40 pm
And for Carolina fans, you guys are the most delusional fan base out there. In a down year in the east,you still finish with a mediocre record and a SEC championship loss ! You guys need to wake up and smell foldgers! You are the same trash S.C.team that always starts with a little momentum, then by mid-season, trips and smashes the turf when the finish line is in sight. Quit talking trash like you have finally arrived in the SEC and have made some sort of headway ! You’re not even a top 20 program and you haven’t won a conference championship since you were apart of the ACC!!! String together a couple of ten win seasons and a “SEC” conference championship, then come back and talk smack about your program! !!!
HBTD
June 11th, 2011
4:52 pm
Mark, You really know how to stir up the little guy down on N. Avenue. It’s always funny watching them get their little pants in a knot. Thanks and Go Dawgs!
country boy
June 11th, 2011
4:55 pm
Very neat handwriting Marky boy.
NoLion
June 11th, 2011
5:18 pm
Bradley, What’s in the pipe your smoking..I am a life long Georgia fan, true Bulldawg down to the last bite… But no way will we win the East..Just being real about it…Not letting my heart get in the way.
It Ain't Rocket Science
June 11th, 2011
5:19 pm
I understand there will be a coach’s clinic this summer, conducted in Atlanta. Make sure all of you coaches on here, that know exactly how the season will go and how bad UGA will be, attend. Surely the majority of you have a future in college coaching. Make sure you take your crystal ball when you get hired though.
needums
June 11th, 2011
5:57 pm
I am sick, sick, sick of losing to UF. Every year that is a game that most of us know that UGA is going to lose. I understand that Florida produces some of the best athletes in the nation but so does Georgia so what’s the deal. If we lose to them AGAIN this year I want CMR to be gone and I don’t care if it’s UGA’s only loss of the season…………. we’ve got to find a way to beat those guy’s!!!!!!!
AltamahaDawg
June 11th, 2011
6:16 pm
Sounds like 2004 is hoping for a few less wins than 8.