Bradley’s grid picks: Tech wins eight; UGA wins the SEC East
My credo. (AJC photo by Ben Gray, doctored by Mandi Albright)
Six months ago I wouldn’t have imagined this pick, but here it is: Georgia will go 10-2 and win the SEC East. And how’s that for a snappy beginning to our annual long-range look at college football?
What changed my mind about Georgia? The Dream Team. I’m not the biggest believer in recruiting rankings, but this class rekindled a fire that, after 8-5 followed by 6-7, was down to embers.
Six months ago I saw a program that had run out of ideas. (How do you not score a touchdown against Central Florida?) Today I see a team primed to seize its opportunity. The SEC East is as rickety as it has ever been: Urban Meyer is gone from Florida, Tennessee is in flux and South Carolina’s breakthrough season — the Gamecocks finally won the division — fizzled at its end.
Georgia’s schedule sets up beautifully. The Bulldogs open against a team that figures to be ranked among the nation’s top five, but the team is Boise State (meaning: less talented than Georgia) and the game is in the Georgia Dome. The next week South Carolina comes to Athens. After winning those two games, the Bulldogs will find themselves in the Top 10.
Their two losses? Even with Florida under new management, one will come against the Gators. (One Georgia loss always comes against the Gators.) The other will come against Mississippi State even though the game is in Athens. (I’m not sure the fourth-best team in the SEC West couldn’t win the East.) As for Georgia’s opponent in the SEC title game … well, keep reading.
• Georgia Tech will tighten up on offense and defense — fewer turnovers, fewer points allowed. This will enable the Jackets to go 8-4 and finish third, behind Virginia Tech and Miami, in the ACC Coastal. They’ll miss Joshua Nesbitt but profit from a kinder schedule. They don’t play Florida State. They get North Carolina, Maryland and Clemson here, and they should win two of those. They get N.C. State, Miami, Virginia and Duke on the road, and they can win at least two of those.
• Andrew Luck, the Stanford quarterback who spurned the NFL, will win the Heisman Trophy.
• Nebraska, new to the Big Ten, will win the Big Ten (now up to 12 members). Ohio State, as you may have heard, has issues.
• With Nebraska gone and Texas in retreat, Oklahoma will tear through the Big 12 (now down to 10) and finish first in the BCS standings.
I foresee a great leap forward. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
• As big as the Georgia-Boise game is to us around here, it will pale in comparison nationally to the other neutral-site game of Sept. 3: LSU-Oregon in Arlington, Texas. LSU 34, Oregon 31.
• Boise State won’t lose after Sept. 3, but from a national perspective it won’t matter. Boise State registers only when unbeaten.
• Auburn goes from 14-0 and the BCS title to 7-5 and fifth in the SEC West. That’s unless Russell Wilson, the baseball-playing quarterback who was released from his scholarship by N. C. State, chooses the Tigers over Wisconsin. Should that happen, bump the Tigers up to 8-4 and fourth. Wilson isn’t Cam Newton, but he’s good.
• Florida State will lose to Oklahoma in Tallahassee on Sept. 17 but will run through the ACC undefeated, beating Virginia Tech in the conference title game (now housed in Charlotte).
• Florida will beat Georgia and still finish 7-5. The Gators must play Alabama and LSU. (Georgia gets neither.) The odd Will Muschamp-Charlie Weis alliance will be in tatters by Halloween.
The string of losing seasons ends at one. (AJC photo by Johnny Crawford)
• South Carolina will go 10-2 — its other loss will be to Arkansas — and lose the division title on the head-to-head tiebreaker.
• Tennessee will finish 6-6. Its new athletic director, whoever he/she is, will not be pleased.
• Utah will win the South Division of the newly configured Pac-12. Stanford will win the North because its biggest game — Oregon on Nov. 12 — is at home. Lane Kiffin and Southern Cal will finish 7-5, if anyone still cares.
• As for the SEC West … Alabama has the better schedule, but LSU has the better team. The Tigers will lose early at Mississippi State but not again. They’ll take down Alabama, which won’t lose to anybody else, in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 5. I see LSU beating Georgia for the SEC championship and Oklahoma in the BCS title game, which will, conveniently enough, be staged in New Orleans.
• Georgia State will go 8-3. It will, however, lose 51-10 at Houston on Sept. 24. Which, when you consider the Panthers lost 63-7 at Alabama last season, will be a sign of progress.
• After the doings of this offseason — Auburn’s trees, the Fiesta Bowl follies, the fall of Jim Tressel and the weirdness at West Virginia — the games themselves will seem almost staid. Even Tech versus Georgia will be nothing special. The Bulldogs will win by two touchdowns.
By Mark Bradley
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746 comments Add your comment
Snoop Dawg
June 11th, 2011
4:36 am
As Pat Dye has pointed out, the present tense UGA Bulldogs aren’t man enough to win in the SEC …
heeldawg
June 11th, 2011
5:12 am
Predictions are like….well, you know. But this is supposed to be fun. Everybody needs to lighten up.
The 10-2 prediction seems about right for a number of reasons. Richt seems to have his fire back, and Grantham finally has the right personnel to run the 3-4 the way it was designed. Defensive line play for the Dawgs will be outstanding this season, and the LBs will be the best crew in the SEC (Ogletree and Jarvis Jones both will bring the wood in unprecedented fashion, and Marcus Washington has freakish raw skills that could be game-changing if utilized properly–with Ray Drew waiting in the wings if Washington doesn’t play up to potential). The corners will be solid; biggest question mark in my mind is free safety, but we might see a freshman or two come in to get some PT there–including one supremely talented QB from South Georgia. The defense will be an asset, not a liability, this season, which historically has been a hallmark of Richt’s best teams.
On offense, Georgia has the best returning QB in the SEC, who will be the best QB in the SEC overall by the end of the season. Richt’s teams have always won 10+ games when the starting QB returns. That’s 100% of the time. Murray’s biggest asset will be his decision-making, which will allow the offense to run like it is supposed to. Crowell brings breakaway speed to the TB position that Georgia has not had since Garrison Hearst, Malcolm is a power back that will be thunder to Crowell’s lightning, and both will be better than either Caleb or Ealey were last season. Caleb King, realizing that this season is now-or-never time for him, will play like a house afire this season, giving the Dawgs a stout three-man rotation in the backfield that will rival Alabama’s. That’s why Ealey left. He saw the handwriting on the wall–the fourth RB in the rotation would only average 5-6 carries a game. The Dawgs will miss AJ at WR (who wouldn’t?), but will be fine with Tavarres King, the unsung Michael Bennett (who will surprise many) and the entire TE rotation, which will be deep and talented. Look for double tights with one splitting out in motion some this season. I also expect one of the freshmen to step up and get significant PT at WR. My bet’s on Malcolm Mitchell, who was mighty impressive on film. The weakest link on offense is the OL, which has talent but lacks depth.
The Dream Team has brought more than talent to Athens. It’s more about swagger, and about leadership, and about a sense of the team being more important than the individual. These attributes were things that were lost over the last three seasons. The fact that malcontents like Marcus Dowtin and Washaun Ealey left the program will only help the team to focus on what is truly important–playing high-quality football. The biggest change this season will not be in personnel or in technique but in attitude. This team wants to win. It will open on a national stage with a chip on its shoulder against a team with lesser talent (and yes, folks, this is correct–Boise State is extremely well-coached, but the talent level is not even close). The Dawgs get their most talented opponent (South Carolina) the following week in their home opener. Win that game and they win the East, which is vastly inferior to the SEC West at this point–and MSU, which plays Georgia in Athens, is the strongest SEC West team the Dawgs face this year. They will finish fourth in the West, behind Alabama, LSU and Arkansas, if that gives you any indication of how favorable the Georgia schedule is this season.
I agree with MB that the Florida monkey is a tough one for the Dawgs to shake, but the Dawgs typically do well against the Gators with a bye week the week before–and that happens this season. With Florida learning a whole new offense and defense, look for them to take a step back this season. I think the Dawgs win in Jax.
Tech will see modest improvement to 7-5, but the talent deficit on the Flats will become readily apparent this season as many talented players just don’t want to play in CPJ’s system. He’s a great bench coach, but a poor recruiter, and while his offense will do its usual thing (they’ll lead the ACC in rushing once again), the lack of a game-breaking receiver and the sheer dearth of talent on defense will keep the Jackets from keeping things close against the Dawgs this season. Johnson beat a more talented but less focused Georgia team with Chan Gailey’s players in his first year. Those players are gone now, and Richt will make it three in a row over the Jackets this fall. It won’t be pretty. The Georgia defense will finally be ready to put the Tech offense to bed in the trenches.
I agree with MB: Georgia will probably play LSU for the SEC title this year, likely with a 10-2 or 11-1 record. But by that time, barring injuries, the Dawgs may have the talent to play with the Tigers. Things might get interesting on that first weekend in December if everyone stays healthy….
Get Real
June 11th, 2011
5:14 am
Mark, what have you been smoking? My 82-year-old mother could make picks like these. Just because you work for the AJC doesn’t mean you have to be soooooo unrealistic about the home teams.
7576DAWG
June 11th, 2011
5:36 am
I want get in an argument with the Florida fans about last years game but it was my observation that for the first time in years Florida didn’t beat Georgia on the field or out coach Georgia even though Bobo did his best to continue that fact. What beat Georgia last year was Murray made mistakes in the Florida game that he didn’t do in any of the games except the UCF game. Murray obviously has a problem staying focused against teams from his home state. Murray wants to prove he didn’t make a mistake going out of state to college but so far has only proved that he can’t lead an emotional game. If he shows the same lack of leadership ability I hope CMR will give LeMay an opportunity to see if he can get the job done when the pressure is on.
Florida using 3 Quarterbacks effectively taking advantage of the defense learning the 3-4 kept the game close but a critical fumble and Murray trying to force passes that he had not done all year lost the game.
Football Guy
June 11th, 2011
6:01 am
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
hahahahah……………………………………………………!
The sun even shines on a dawgs azz once in awhile but not this year
June 11th, 2011
6:18 am
You got to be kiddin right?
tom
June 11th, 2011
6:31 am
Wrong, Bulldogs lose their first two. I will put a case of beer on that.
Johnny Vaught
June 11th, 2011
6:31 am
God, what a homer. Grow up.
Dawg55
June 11th, 2011
6:34 am
bradley’s right—this uga team is loaded on both sides of the ball. Murray will be the best QB in the SEC and with crowell and a big O-line, UGa will dominate games on O. Look for an early upset over usc and blowout wins over florida and auburn. Ga plays lsu for the SEC title!!!
It Ain't Rocket Science
June 11th, 2011
6:37 am
Snoop Dog,
Are you employed? Just kind of wandering since you are so worried about CMR’s employment. He will be at UGA next year coaching. You need to write about something else, because after a while, your ranting indicates that you are just plain jealous of the man. I got a great idea. Why don’t you apply for the job of head coach at UGA. I mean, after all, you have determined that CMR is terrible, so I am assuming that you have all the answers.
FanSince59
June 11th, 2011
7:19 am
A little too optimistic on UGA, Bradley. 7-5 or 8-4 is more realistic. If 7-5, Richt will be gone after a gut-wrenching decision by Adams and whats-his-name, the AD. 8-4 and they will probably find some flimsy excuse to let him and Bozo hang around. Why they would though is a damn good question.
Buzz 2010
June 11th, 2011
7:35 am
The Dawgs won’t win six games Bradley. I mean are you ” dreaming”? The can’t use Alabama, Auburn [players or coaches this season. This is Bulldog USA and Mark Richt man..
sprouse27
June 11th, 2011
7:36 am
*laughing* Been out of town and just saw this. I’ll agree that the Dawgs SHOULD win the SEC East this year. But they SHOULD have won the SEC East last year too. They have an easy schedule and a ton of resources. But they won’t do it. They will continue to under perform until we have a coaching change in Athens. I like Mark Richt and think he’s a very classy guy. But he’s a sub par coach, especially in the SEC. I’ll be watching of course, but it’s hard for me to get excited about 2011.
gahillbilly
June 11th, 2011
7:36 am
So many idiots, so little time to refute them …
sprouse27
June 11th, 2011
7:47 am
I think “FanSince59″ has it exactly right. Love the Dawgs but we settle for mediocrity too much. Richt had some good seasons a long time ago. With the resources that he has available in Athens, and being able to be the best positioned recruiting school in a state that is one of the top 4 producers of football players, we should be in a dead heat with Florida for winning the SEC East just about every year. Instead, we just automatically concede we’ll lose to them every year and struggle against teams we should easily beat. Dawgs get virtually six automatic wins every year. 2 AA teams, 2 non-conference teams, Vandy and Kentucky. Only thing is, we’ve fallen to a level where we struggle with the non-conference games and Vandy and Kentucky. On top of that, Richt’s record against the better SEC teams is not that good either. “But he won a lot of games a long time ago” is getting to be an old refrain in Athens. If Richt was going to win a National Championship, he’d have done it before now. UGA needs a coach that can lead them to that level of success and unfortunately, Mark Richt has never been able to figure out how to do that in Athens.
USC GAMEC0CK
June 11th, 2011
7:49 am
Mark Bradley – serving up slop for the home crowd….so what’s new?
Greg
June 11th, 2011
7:56 am
Wow, when you say predictions, you mean predictable. Way to give us some insight to the obvious. So Georgia hasn’t won a game since you were debating whether or not to fire Richt; yet, now you see, without Georgia playing a game, a new Georgia team without green going 10 and 2. Good stuff.
Stanford Atlanta Peach
June 11th, 2011
8:01 am
Go Andrew Luck and Stanford Football!
Congrats to Stanford Athletics on winning its 17th-consecutive Directors’ Cup for the nation’s best overall collegiate athletics program. Stanford finished second to UNC in the first Directors’ Cup race, and has won the award ever since.
The best combination of academic and athletic success…
GO STANFORD CARDINAL!
10-2? well...
June 11th, 2011
8:01 am
i tell you what: i’ll buy into this AFTER uga handles boise st. all the rest of your points seem pretty on target (although i think USCe, UcheaT, and UF will be tougher than you advertise). now, as a ‘Bama fan, i have to ask: how exactly is LSU the better team? coaching? qb? rb? offense? defense (okay, maybe d line)? special teams? seriously, dude, you couldn’t be more wrong about this pick. but i do hope the dawgs win at least for richt: he is a class guy and has done plenty right at uga to deserve a second run.
dawgfan
June 11th, 2011
8:01 am
Sounds like Mississippi state will beat everybody and still be 4th in SEC west.
Kevin
June 11th, 2011
8:04 am
How do you not score a touchdown against Central Florida?
UCF is a better football team. Enough said.
It’s time to admit it. UCF is better than Georgia.
Street and Smith
June 11th, 2011
8:08 am
Sir Beano Cook likes the comeback chance for Georgia this year.
Jack Meeoff
June 11th, 2011
8:17 am
UGA going 10-2 and winning the East……….now that is dang funny. Bradley, I would think a man of your age would know better than to touch crack.
gdawginkalamazoo
June 11th, 2011
8:20 am
Man I am so stoked…..they just renewed Sponge Bob Squarepants for another 5 years. Now thats what I am talking about. Go Dawgs.
Alphare
June 11th, 2011
8:22 am
are you kidding Mark?
UGA has a QB who couldn’t score a TD against UCF (UCF of the world?). UGA lost its best scorer in Ealey.
Mark, you are out of your mind!
Wombat
June 11th, 2011
8:25 am
So, Georgia loses the bulk of its OL, its most productive back, and its most productive receiver, yet they win the East? I don’t know if that’s a tip of the hat to their ability to re-load, or a comment on the quality of their schedule.
We’ll see, Mark, but I think you’ll be writing, “I will try not to get suckered in every year” on your 2012 blackboard.
wolfman
June 11th, 2011
8:25 am
UGA just might win the East — then get run out of the stadium in the SEC championship….
Snoop Dawg
June 11th, 2011
8:29 am
I see that It Ain’t Rocket Science is already drinking the koolaid at 5AM. You’re hooked on Preacha Man’s mesmerizing elixir of fantasy and deception. You’re living in the Matrix, son. The Betty Ford Clinic has a seat for you to detox so that you can think clearly. Once you’re 20-20 again, maybe you will see the obvious and join that growing number of those who really care in demanding that Richt and Bobo clear out of Athens and the entire State of Georgia.
Gen Neyland
June 11th, 2011
8:30 am
This column and it’s varied responses remind me of an old Irish story : There was an optimist, a pessimist and a realist sitting at a bar. In front of them was glass of whiskey half full, or half empty, depending. As the optimist and the pessimist argued the liquid status inside the glass, the realist reached over, took the glass of whiskey and downed it, then said, ‘Gentlemen, the glass is actually very empty.’
Johnny Reb
June 11th, 2011
8:30 am
You should head to rehab with these type of predictions! UGA over Boise State? UGA could not even beat CFU last year..Richt is gone. LSU is good, but they have the Mad Hatter. Gamecocks vs BAMA for SEC title. BAMA vs FSU for BCS title. Tide wins it all.
Jiggy
June 11th, 2011
8:32 am
How can you predict UGA final standings before the “arrest” season begins?
Snoop Dawg
June 11th, 2011
8:32 am
If UGA’s got enough talent to “go all the way” this year, I see the only impediment being the lousy coaching. Let’s fire Richt and Bobo now to give the team it’s best chance for football championships this year. Waiting until the coaches blow it yet once again will only be another year down the drain.
Corey Smith
June 11th, 2011
8:34 am
I hear the Dawgs might take it all the way this year, like in 1981.
1981 was 30 years ago. I wasn’t there but it sure must have been fun…
Curious
June 11th, 2011
8:44 am
Mark, what were your predictions last year?
Anyone have a link?
jerry
June 11th, 2011
8:57 am
I see the UGA prediction is based on the usual caveat: Everyone else is will be down, and Bradley, even though he has no fear of looking like an idiot, gives no hint of a Richt led juggernaught.
Top Dawg
June 11th, 2011
9:14 am
MARK: How long before Zach Mettenberger is the starting QB at LSU?
MikeP
June 11th, 2011
9:18 am
You think UGA will beat Auburn in Athens? C’mon, Auburn owns the place.
Mobile Dawg
June 11th, 2011
9:20 am
Come on Snoop. As much of a “non Richt believer” as I am, I have given in to just letting things be. The dye is cast, he will be here at least one more year. Let’s hope for the best, and, the General has given us other options than to be pessimists on all levels. I hopped on the realist train a few years back.
Dave from GT
June 11th, 2011
9:20 am
“I will try to be right in 2011!” – well you are off to a pretty bad, drug induced start!
Gen Neyland
June 11th, 2011
9:21 am
Zoo : With grandkids around the house from time to time, I gotta admit, That’s the best news ever..!
Ray Charles
June 11th, 2011
9:29 am
stopped reading after : by Mark Bradley
derek
June 11th, 2011
9:30 am
Mark, what about ARKANSAS, where do you rank them? Give them some props every now n then, most have them ranked either in the top ten or just below it……
GA HUSKER FAN
June 11th, 2011
9:32 am
MB as far as your predictions I agree the Huskers will take the Big 10. In regards to UGA they will finish 8-4 and 2012 season will be under new mgmt.
derek
June 11th, 2011
9:33 am
By the way Miss St may be everybady and still be fourth, with LSU, ARKANSAS, ALABAMA and AUBURN in the mix ( Check the pre-season ratings)
Confused
June 11th, 2011
9:43 am
Not with Mark Richt/Helen Hunt still calling the shots
» SEC: Vols meet with NCAA today; Weiner and Tebow John Clay’s Sidelines
June 11th, 2011
9:44 am
[...] Bradley: Georgia will win SEC East in football [...]
LSUTigger
June 11th, 2011
9:50 am
That’s funny. LSU does seem to get hot when the BCS championship is at home.
Cockfather
June 11th, 2011
9:52 am
IF South Carolina goes 10-2 they will win the SEC East. UGA has too many holes. No proven WR or RB. Murray struggled all spring because he does not have Durham and AJ Green. Crowell is no LAttimore. He is 180 pound back. Not an every down SEC back. OL will have zero depth and question marks at OT. Defensively, who is sold on your 3-4 and new DC? Your secondary will not be able to stop SOS’s passing attack and Alshon Jeffery.
Spurrier will carve that guy up like he did when he was at Florida. UGA is an 8 win team. That all.
1990
June 11th, 2011
9:53 am
Every year you have UGA in the top 10. UGA has not been that good in years. Don’t sleep on Boise State.
Panther Prowler!
June 11th, 2011
9:57 am
Mark, who do you see GSU losing to besides Houston? Jax State and SC State?
You’re really giving Houston too much credit if you think the Panthers can’t score two touchdowns. Hell, we scored one @ ALABAMA!
Really appreciate you keeping us in the discussion though. It’ll be good practice for you and us when we move into a large conference eventually.
LET’S GO STATE!!!