5 reasons to be concerned about your 2011 Atlanta Braves
"Now boarding: Flight 2011, bound for ... October?" (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
Ever notice how every player and manager always says he’s “excited” about spring training? Because every player and manager always is. Spring training is the fun part. But somebody has to function as a wet blanket, and here I stand. (Or drape, as the case may be.) Here are five reasons I’m concerned about the local nine as it readies for Lake Buena Vista.
1. The defense could be deadly. Dan Uggla will help the batting order, OK? We’re agreed there. But Uggla is a bad defender — 47 errors over the past three seasons, which is a bunch for a second baseman — and he’s the new Braves second baseman. Which means Martin Prado moves to left field, where he has played a total of three big-league games. Even if Chipper Jones is healthy, he’ll still turn 39 in April. And Alex Gonzalez, who turns 34 next month, was a major defensive disappointment.
Think about it: At how many positions do the Braves have a first-rate defender? Freddie Freeman should be fine at first base, but Brian McCann is only OK, and even Jason Heyward had some odd moments in right field last season. I worry that some fine pitchers will be undercut by the men stationed behind — or, in McCann’s case, in front of — them. But that’s what I do. I worry.
2. Nate McLouth is again projected as the center fielder. That’s a major position on any ballclub, and I haven’t seen anything from McLouth since he arrived in June 2009 that makes me think he’s even a minor asset. (From what I’ve seen, the Pirates got rid of him just as his career took the ol’ Matterhorn nosedive.)
It was noteworthy that Rick Ankiel was the Braves’ starting center fielder in the Division Series even though McLouth was on the active roster. The Braves thought so little of Ankiel they let him leave after the season, and now they plan to run McLouth out there again. Maybe this makes sense to you. It doesn’t to me.
3. Craig Kimbrel walks people. The Braves haven’t officially designated Kimbrel their closer, but they’re clearly leaning that way. And he has everything you’d want in a closer … except control.
Over 151 minor-league innings, Kimbrel walked 95 batters. (That’s an average of 5.7 walks per nine innings, which is terrible.) He walked 16 men in 20 2/3 big-league innings after his promotion. He walked Travis Ishikawa in the devastating ninth inning of Game 3 of the NLDS, and sure enough Ishikawa scored the tying run.
Speaking Wednesday at Turner Field, Kimbrel said: “From right now until the season, [working on control] becomes my focus. I want to improve it.”
It’s not an option. Either Kimbrel throws strikes or he doesn’t work the ninth inning. As Jeff Brantley, himself a closer, once said after watching John Rocker blow a save via bases on balls: “You can’t walk people if you want to close.”
4. There’s still no speed. The Braves ranked 14th in a 16-team league in stolen bases in 2010, and their new position players are Freeman, who’s no deer, and Uggla, who has 19 steals in five big-league seasons. The guess is that Fredi Gonzalez would like to play more Small Ball than his managerial predecessor, but he wouldn’t seem to have the tools.
5. Magic might not be transferable. Last season the Braves won 25 games in their final at-bat. Much went wrong along the way, but enough games went improbably right at the end for this team to slip into the playoffs on the final day. It was a wild ride and a good ride and, not incidentally, Bobby Cox’s last ride, but the doings of 2010 weren’t anyone’s concept of a blueprint.
The 2011 Braves have Uggla and Freeman and Kimbrel but will be missing Billy Wagner and Omar Infante and Troy Glaus — who in one month changed the course of 2010, let’s not forget — and Matt Diaz. This team will again pitch well, and it figures to hit better than it did last season while fielding worse. It took 91 wins to qualify for postseason in 2010, and that number would seem the ceiling for the 2011 Braves.
By Mark Bradley
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387 comments Add your comment
Coach13
February 10th, 2011
9:26 am
If you aren’t going to have speed or a good defense you better have a high powered offense (which the Braves don’t have) and strikout pitchers (which the Braves don’t have). Their pitching staff is built around the concept of good D. I’ll be shocked if they make the playoffs.
Bone
February 10th, 2011
9:28 am
GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF THE “PLAY NOT TO LOSE” HOLE!!!
This is why this city doesn’t expect anything from any team based in Georgia. Expect these teams to win, and not to lose even before the first pitch, catch, hit, run, etc. is made.
Big Spanky
February 10th, 2011
9:30 am
Good observation Coach. Uggla,Gonzalez,and Chipper have almost zero range. Huddy,Lowe,and Hanson are all ground ball pitchers. Hanson has the stuff to be a strikeout pitcher. I foresee a lot of infield singles then 3 run homers. I’d love to be wrong.
North over South
February 10th, 2011
9:34 am
I completely agree with Mark Brave suck
Lemke's Knuckler
February 10th, 2011
9:35 am
Good points Bradley, might as well close up the Disney complex and tell the boys to try again in 2012. I know you get paid to be critical, but your observations about this team are superficial at best.
Braves 2011
February 10th, 2011
9:36 am
242nd.
I’ll worry about baseball in March … maybe.
Braves 2011
February 10th, 2011
9:37 am
BTW the Falcons saw the future and it isn’t them.
Braves 2011
February 10th, 2011
9:38 am
I suspect Mark will come back with 5 reasons the Braves might do well.
It’s the boring time of the year folks.
Cut the AJC some slack.
ebdawg
February 10th, 2011
9:47 am
Pitchers and catchers have not even reported and THIS is what you write? Mark Bradley you are one negative writer…. How about starting off spring training with Five Reasons to be THRILLED about the 2011 Braves!!! Gee
reebok
February 10th, 2011
9:56 am
what’s the over/under on chipper’s first stint on the DL? i’d say April 15th, but then I am a starry-eyed optimist…
GLS
February 10th, 2011
9:58 am
Ill bet you spend your spare time writing little kids and telling them that Santa died. No team has ever gone 162-0 and I really doubt it will happen this year. So if you like writing stories about disapointment, interview your wife!
old fart
February 10th, 2011
9:59 am
Mark, you are spot on with your assessment. I doubt Chipper makes it through spring training. He wanted to hang ‘em up at the end of last year before the injury occurred. I love the guy, but come on! Chipper, you’re 39 with a bum knee and have nothing more to prove. You’d make a great color announcer.
Prado will move to third. He will be playing out of position. He is a born second baseman. Why can’t Uggla move to third or left field for that matter? We haven’t had a decent left fielder since the Braves played in Milwaukee.
Defense or lack of it always shows up especially in the playoffs. We aren’t going to any playoffs unless or until we fix our gloves. Wren’s got some shopping and horsetrading to do.
At any rate, I love my Braves and intend to watch every game that’s televised as I have since ‘69.
Matt
February 10th, 2011
10:11 am
Don’t be a killjoy, Mark!! I’m ready for baseball!!
By the way, good article and valid points.
steve whitmire
February 10th, 2011
10:16 am
DEEFENSE, SCHMEEFENSE. Plugging Uggla’s 30 home run a year bat into this formerly anemic lineup, Chipper playing in at least 120 games without injury, some production from center field, Heyward back for another season, Freeman batting at least .260 with 15 or more homers, good starting pitching, decent bullpen, we’ll be back in the playoffs again. Frank Wren has an ace in the hole: at least one starter, maybe Beachy, we could trade for a major bat once the season starts and other teams become desperate for pitching.
justin1
February 10th, 2011
10:20 am
I agree. What do they say about what wins Championships? Pitching and DEFENSE. It may hurt his “legacy”, but putting Uggla in left field makes so much more sense. He is there to hit. He knows that. We know that. He knows his defense is terrible. So do we. For the most part, we have a ground ball staff. I have a feeling were going to be seeing a lot of frustrated faces on the mound this year if our defense doesn’t receive some sort of face lift. Just in the switching of Uggla and Prado will make a tremendous difference, in my opinion.
Bobby's Blunders
February 10th, 2011
10:20 am
Finally someone faces reality. Mr. Bradley, your points are well taken. Stating it a little more bluntly: – We do not have a major league quality Shortstop either offensively or defensively. It has been three years since Chipper has had good offensive production, his defensive range is not good, and now he is both a year older and coming off serious injury. We do not have a Center Fielder. Defense is built up the middle (catcher, SS, 2nd base, Center Field) and we do not have a single really good defender in the mix. In fact, do we have a single really good defensive position player — perhaps a rookie at first base, Heyward may improve and really be good, we do not know about Prado in Left. Freeman’s offensive production at first is still in question. Even worse what should have been an outstanding, basically young, starting pitching staff is now in question after Hudson and Hanson. Medlin is out for the season. JJ has not really been consistant since his Shoulder injoury. Lowe is a year older and who knows. There is young talent – but unproven. And of course, our Closer is gone.
Katherine
February 10th, 2011
10:25 am
Jimmy Crack
February 10th, 2011
7:39 am
Way to go out on a limb there Mark. Here’s my team prognostications:
1) The Braves may or may not make the playoffs and probably won’t make it to the second round.
2) The Hawks should make the playoffs but probably won’t make it to the second round.
3) The Falcons in 2011 should make the playoffs but probably won’t make it to the second round.
4) The Thrashers will probably leave town on a losing note and nobody will miss them. Really.
Well aren’t you just a big ray of sunshine…….
ramblingman
February 10th, 2011
10:30 am
Harley, first you discount the Braves’ young pitchers (shaky, walk too many batters, who knows what we will get there, questionable) then you want to trade them for “good” players and you want to throw Teheran in the fire. Consistency…
Next, you claim that Heyward (average for a rookie? Puhleeze…) gave the team Blauser type numbers instead of Bonds or Aaron. Okay, let’s look at the rookie stats of these four players
.277 / 18 / 72 OPS .849 Heyward
.280 / 13 / 69 OPS .769 Aaron
.223 / 16 / 48 OPS .746 Bonds
.242 / 2 / 15 OPS .679 Blauser
One of these things is not like the others, one of these things just doesn’t belong…
(come on, sing along).
Remember, you brought up the comparisons.
danny
February 10th, 2011
10:32 am
Always dwelling on the negative!
Chipper
February 10th, 2011
10:35 am
Mark Bradley describing his own life in his own words:”as a wet blanket, here I stand, a major disappointment. OK? We’re agreed , was some odd moments. the men stationed behind, I worry that some fine minor asset… that’s what I do. I worry. they’re clearly leaning that way, blow via balls. As Jeff Brantley once said, “…no deer, and Uggla, guess is that Fredi Gonzalez would like to slip into Bobby Cox’s tools.” It was a wild ride and a good ride and, here I stand, as a wet blanket.”
O'flarity's water bottle
February 10th, 2011
10:43 am
Thanks for the “heads up” MB. Everyone here knows the directions to negative town. What are your reasons for the braves to do good? What is your good hypothesis?
O'flarity's water bottle
February 10th, 2011
10:46 am
Jeff Blauser is a bed wetter! He sucked, had one good year. Him and bellyard. They sucked offensively.
Katherine
February 10th, 2011
10:49 am
A new season is going to start soon…don’t worry about this negative article….just go to the games and have fun! All but one team will ultimately be disappointed in the end anyway…..Baseball season can’t start soon enough for me
Ron Strauss
February 10th, 2011
10:53 am
5 reasons to be concerned about Atlanta’s sports writers:
1. They’re downers
2. They’re negative
3. They’re ‘chicken littles’
4. They’re the opposite of affirmative
5. Their timing sucks
Good sports towns have scribes who always find a silver lining. No matter how bad things are going, they find something to help fans feel good about. Something to build on. The season’s not even begun and Mr. Doom and Gloom is setting the tone for the coming year. Bummer! Fear of losing is contagious and counter-productive. Confidence of winning (regardless of the outcome) is much more fun. There’s nothing wrong with mentioning the team’s weak spots, but also put the emphasis on what’s right, the strengths we can build on. Sports writers can be leaders, too.
UKUGA
February 10th, 2011
10:53 am
Five concerns and you don’t mention the HOF 3B who is recovering from ACL surgery???
The Big Dog
February 10th, 2011
10:56 am
Bad defense killed us down the stretch and obviously in the playoffs. The magic is likely not transferrable. We are slow. McLouth is an auto out. Kimbrel is channeling Rick Ankel (the pitcher). The Phillies can’t be beat. Still, maybe we can grab the wild card. Great starting pitching, MVP caliber player in Heyward, best hitting catcher in the NL, unlimited potential in Kimbrell, monster bat in Uggs, it could be done. Especially if FF is the player we all hope he can be. Hold em under 4 every game, couple of bloops and a blast, who knows?
Terry
February 10th, 2011
10:56 am
Look, let me say this one more time to Mr. Bradley: Get your facts straight! In five seasons, Martin Prado has a .984 fielding percentage at 2nd base, & .980 overall. In the same five years, Dan Uggla’s is .983 at 2nd base exclusively. Ankiel is out because of salary & McLouth is in because of salary. If Kimbrel can’t throw strikes, the closer duties go to Venters who may share time, anyway. And the only thing McCann can’t do often enough is throw runners out. The Braves had a lot of come-from-behind wins last year, but did anyone forget how many one-run games they lost in ‘09? Why worry? Let the games begin.
voice of reason
February 10th, 2011
10:57 am
no haystack will be dl’ed most of the year by a somewhat obscure thumb injury that no one ses happen if ppl are waiting for him to produce i suggest not holding ones breath lol
ramblingman
February 10th, 2011
10:58 am
coach13 @ 9:26 – “I’ll be shocked if they make the playoffs.”
I am sure you were shocked when they made the playoffs last year.
Old Fart @ 9:59 – Maybe your memory is playing tricks on you. Chipper discussed retiring, but it was not at the end of last season. In fact, he had regained his form and had dismissed any thought of retiring before he was injured making a hell of a play.
Also, you state “We haven’t had a decent left fielder since the Braves played in Milwaukee.” And you claim you have watched every game that was televised since 1969? Let me refresh your memory with some of the Braves who have patrolled Left Field since they moved to Atlanta
Rico Carty
Ralph Garr
Hank Aaron (almost 200 games over 2 years)
Jeff Burroughs
Gary Matthews
Jim Wynn
Brett Butler
Ken Griffey
Ron Gant
Ryan Klesko
Deion Sanders
Chipper Jones
Exaggerating to make a point does not work.
O'flarity's water bottle
February 10th, 2011
11:02 am
Can we get ken griffey jr out of retirement?
flintrock70
February 10th, 2011
11:03 am
Yeah, Prado plays LF in the Winter League. Man, I’m better at fact checking that Mark. I’m also better at everything than Mark. Mark=terrible.
Braves
February 10th, 2011
11:05 am
Mark, seriously, why do you insist on being the world’s biggest douchbag? The Braves problems pale in comparison to your own problems. You are pathetic!
O'flarity's water bottle
February 10th, 2011
11:07 am
ramblingman
February 10th, 2011
10:58 am
A little high strung? Switch to decafe…
Jason
February 10th, 2011
11:07 am
Mark Bradley, why are you always the rain on the parade, a black fly in the chardonnay, 10,000 spoons when all you need is a knife, quite frankly, i don’t like you.
Milledgeville Dawg
February 10th, 2011
11:17 am
Captain negative strikes again
Milledgeville Dawg
February 10th, 2011
11:19 am
Captain Negative strikes again!!
@ Jason
February 10th, 2011
11:21 am
The fact that Mark Bradley still has a job shows that the AJC just doesn’t give a damn about sports. Every prediction the guy has ever made has been WRONG. Even in baseball, where succeeding 30% of the time is considered very successful, Mark would be batting .023. That’s over .150 points LOWER than McLouth’s 2010 batting average. That gets you fired in every single profession. How is this guy still employed? I can’t tell you how disappointed i was when i found out that Mark was not one of the writers offered an early retirement a year or two ago.
Ed F
February 10th, 2011
11:25 am
I see Atlanta Battling With Washington for Last Place. Take Kawakami and Mclouth out and you got third place. Had we had a .500 pitcher last year in Kawakami place we Might have Won the Division. Phili got first and somebody else second.
brave
February 10th, 2011
11:36 am
Just 5, I can name 100 in less than a second or maybe, Mark cannot count that high. braves will be the first team to go from first to dead last. Just look at Cleveland Cavaliers and they are braves’ reflections. braves will be lucky if they have 7 wins all season. Cheer up Atlantans, ‘wait until next season’ is just around the corner for this year and every year. Go braves and take the falcons, hawks and thrashers with you.
b
February 10th, 2011
11:46 am
Nate, the carnival act had one of the worst years in Braves
history, offensively and defensively.
I can’t believe he even gets another chance.
And to the poster on Haas, (these things happen and that’s baseball)
Isn’t Haas deceased?
b
February 10th, 2011
11:48 am
Well, I guess he’s still alive.
He’s the most inept mgr. in Braves history, including
Ted Turner.
Fan in Missouri
February 10th, 2011
11:53 am
Just a couple thoughts:
When was the last time a team with speed won a world series?
The Giants won the world series with an infield nowhere close to the infield the Braves will put on the field. (Except Buster Posey over McCann)
It seemed to me the defense strugled last year after injuries started to add up at the end of the season.
Bartman-n-Orl
February 10th, 2011
11:53 am
ramblingman: Niiiice.. I like those LFs.
MB: Way to come up with a story just for the controversy of it. You’d fit riight in with the guys down here at the Orlando Sentinel. Guess you do what you gotta do to show the boss people are reading your stuff.
Terry
February 10th, 2011
11:55 am
To b: Nate gets another chance, dimwit, because he’s owed about 7.5 million on the last year of his contract. if you can’t trade him, you play him.
ramblingman
February 10th, 2011
11:57 am
water bottle @ 11:07
That’s funny, considering I replied with facts to dispute an exaggeration. Since when is calmly and logically refuting a claim by someone else by using facts considered to be high-strung?
Never mind, that question was rhetorical. I know your likely answer.
ramblingman
February 10th, 2011
11:58 am
Ed F @ 11:25 – I seriously doubt that both Atlanta and Washington will finish worse off than the Mets. Just my opinion.
RichieRich86
February 10th, 2011
12:00 pm
Mark Bradley why don’t you just jump off a bridge? Really all you do is try to piss off braves fans. Why are you so dang negative? Seriously get a new job. You suck!!
Harpie
February 10th, 2011
12:02 pm
The Braves are going to stink this season!
Scott
February 10th, 2011
12:05 pm
I really think you’re focusing your attention on most of the wrong areas. McLouth is a concern, but everything else is not a real concern. Plenty of slow teams have won a ton of games (and a World Series or 2) even at that if we let them run both McLouth and Heyward should swipe 20 bags.
You mention defense, but overall the defense will be below average. Heyward is a plus defender, A-Gon is a plus defender (IIRC he was much better after his first month, I think moving from team to team midseason can cause that in IFs) Mac is average, if Nate plays like he did in 09 he’s average, Freeman should be above average. Prado should be average at least. Your big concerns are Uggla, who’s not that much worse of a 2B than Prado, and Chipper who played the most games at 3B last year anyway. At the least I’d say on the season our defense will be better than last year because of Prado getting more PT in LF (over Hinske and Diaz) McLouth getting PT in CF over Melky, Matt Young being a much better defensive 4th OF than Melky, and especially from Freeman over Glaus, who was a butcher at 1B.
Kimbrel walks guys, but he also strikes guys out.As long as his K/BB is near 3 the walks aren’t that important, he should also improve his control over time.
The real concerns are McLouth bouncing back, overall inconsistency that’s a risk with young players, health (biggest risk) and Freddie not over managing since he’s taking over for a legend.
Fan in Missouri
February 10th, 2011
12:06 pm
What about Randy Quaid in LF for the Braves in the Slugger’s Wife?