5 reasons to be concerned about your 2011 Atlanta Braves
"Now boarding: Flight 2011, bound for ... October?" (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
Ever notice how every player and manager always says he’s “excited” about spring training? Because every player and manager always is. Spring training is the fun part. But somebody has to function as a wet blanket, and here I stand. (Or drape, as the case may be.) Here are five reasons I’m concerned about the local nine as it readies for Lake Buena Vista.
1. The defense could be deadly. Dan Uggla will help the batting order, OK? We’re agreed there. But Uggla is a bad defender — 47 errors over the past three seasons, which is a bunch for a second baseman — and he’s the new Braves second baseman. Which means Martin Prado moves to left field, where he has played a total of three big-league games. Even if Chipper Jones is healthy, he’ll still turn 39 in April. And Alex Gonzalez, who turns 34 next month, was a major defensive disappointment.
Think about it: At how many positions do the Braves have a first-rate defender? Freddie Freeman should be fine at first base, but Brian McCann is only OK, and even Jason Heyward had some odd moments in right field last season. I worry that some fine pitchers will be undercut by the men stationed behind — or, in McCann’s case, in front of — them. But that’s what I do. I worry.
2. Nate McLouth is again projected as the center fielder. That’s a major position on any ballclub, and I haven’t seen anything from McLouth since he arrived in June 2009 that makes me think he’s even a minor asset. (From what I’ve seen, the Pirates got rid of him just as his career took the ol’ Matterhorn nosedive.)
It was noteworthy that Rick Ankiel was the Braves’ starting center fielder in the Division Series even though McLouth was on the active roster. The Braves thought so little of Ankiel they let him leave after the season, and now they plan to run McLouth out there again. Maybe this makes sense to you. It doesn’t to me.
3. Craig Kimbrel walks people. The Braves haven’t officially designated Kimbrel their closer, but they’re clearly leaning that way. And he has everything you’d want in a closer … except control.
Over 151 minor-league innings, Kimbrel walked 95 batters. (That’s an average of 5.7 walks per nine innings, which is terrible.) He walked 16 men in 20 2/3 big-league innings after his promotion. He walked Travis Ishikawa in the devastating ninth inning of Game 3 of the NLDS, and sure enough Ishikawa scored the tying run.
Speaking Wednesday at Turner Field, Kimbrel said: “From right now until the season, [working on control] becomes my focus. I want to improve it.”
It’s not an option. Either Kimbrel throws strikes or he doesn’t work the ninth inning. As Jeff Brantley, himself a closer, once said after watching John Rocker blow a save via bases on balls: “You can’t walk people if you want to close.”
4. There’s still no speed. The Braves ranked 14th in a 16-team league in stolen bases in 2010, and their new position players are Freeman, who’s no deer, and Uggla, who has 19 steals in five big-league seasons. The guess is that Fredi Gonzalez would like to play more Small Ball than his managerial predecessor, but he wouldn’t seem to have the tools.
5. Magic might not be transferable. Last season the Braves won 25 games in their final at-bat. Much went wrong along the way, but enough games went improbably right at the end for this team to slip into the playoffs on the final day. It was a wild ride and a good ride and, not incidentally, Bobby Cox’s last ride, but the doings of 2010 weren’t anyone’s concept of a blueprint.
The 2011 Braves have Uggla and Freeman and Kimbrel but will be missing Billy Wagner and Omar Infante and Troy Glaus — who in one month changed the course of 2010, let’s not forget — and Matt Diaz. This team will again pitch well, and it figures to hit better than it did last season while fielding worse. It took 91 wins to qualify for postseason in 2010, and that number would seem the ceiling for the 2011 Braves.
By Mark Bradley
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387 comments Add your comment
athdog
February 10th, 2011
12:02 am
Some good observations, some not so much. Sixteen errors a season over 162 games is not going to kill us, especially with the upgrade offensively. Prado has played regularly in winter ball for several years, it’s no stranger to him.
Chipper won’t hit. He hasn’t hit in three years, and he won’t play more than 110 games or so, if that many. Freeman is highly unlikely to have a Heyward like season offensively, that kind of production from a rookie is unusual. Kimbrel has great closers stuff. He also walks too many batters. If he doesn’t pan out as the closer, we may have a problem. McLouth is probably looking at a ‘put up or shut up’ type of year. Maybe that motivates him, maybe we find out he is just not very good.
Either way, whether it works out or not, at least baseball season is here, at last!
Brave
February 10th, 2011
12:06 am
Just 5, I can name 100 in less than a second or maybe you cannot count that high. braves will be the first first to go from first to dead last. Just look at Cleveland, braves will be lucky if they have 7 wins all season. Cheer up Atlantans, ‘wait until next season’ is just around the corner for this year and every year. Go braves and take the falcons, hawks and thrashers with you.
N8
February 10th, 2011
12:12 am
1) Defense…. Agree with you Mark. It’s not going to be pretty.
2) McLouth as CF…. Again agree with you. That being said, the Braves LF/CF combination (offensively) last year was pitiful. With Prado in LF, McLouth need only be “average” to make it a huge improvement overall out there.
3) Kimbrel…. Disagree with you here. Do some research. His walk totals have gone down every step of the way, and he’s been groomed to be the closer for a couple of years now. Yes he walks more than you’d like. But he also has one of the highest K-rates per 9 IP in recent memory. The kid simply doesn’t get hit and rarely gives up the long ball. On a few occasions, you’re probably right, the walks may bite him in the butt. But more often than not, I suspect he’ll get out of his jams his walks create.
4) Not team Speed…… Again, can’t really disagree. This team is Suh-LOW. Gonna have to mash to score in bunches.
5) Magic might be gone….. Again agree. It probably won’t be as magical. But the logical thing to think of is that with Heyward a year older, and the addition of Uggla, the Braves might not need to have late inning magic. Should score more runs earlier in games. Need I remind you how BAD everybody but Glaus, Heyward and Mac were in the first half of the year offensively? They had no choice but to be “saved” by late inning heroics.
The bigger concerns you should have mentioned are:
1) Chipper returning to form.
2) Jurrjens returning to form.
3) Freeman being able to hit.
4) Schafer being able to contribute at some point
5) Heyward staying healthy and aggressive.
3 of the 5 things you listed didn’t hinder the Braves last year. The defense was horrible. Nate was the CF. No team speed. And I seem to recall there being questions about Wagner at his age last winter, so the closer’s role was no sure thing heading into spring training last year. Besides, there are plenty of arms out there to save games.
If the things I mentioned all go in favor of the Braves, the things you mentioned won’t matter much.
Steve
February 10th, 2011
1:00 am
Mark, shouldn’t you be writing for the Mets or the Phillies? Just sayin’ .. you rarely have anything good to say about this team. Honestly, that’s why nobody takes you seriously. Sure, some of these are valid concerns however most of this is just complete negativity. You don’t even give Nate the benefit of the doubt. The kid is a good player, but he was hurt all season. When he WAS healthy, the guy was already freakin’ below the Mendoza line. Not easy to get your confidence up and get that swagger back when you’re hitting worse than many pitchers.
The fact is a lot of this can be overcome and some of these “problems” will never be a factor at all.
Again, why don’t you go write for a team you actually think is capable of winning ballgames like the Mets .. or the Nationals.
CABRAVES FAN
February 10th, 2011
1:31 am
Hey Mark, have you said anything positive about the Braves this off season yet? I mean, come on! The Braves will be GOOD, maybe not Great but I have seen some “GOOD” teams win championships before! Go back and write about the Falcons or Hawks. Leave the Braves to DOB. Thanks!
G. Tampa Bedwetter
February 10th, 2011
1:35 am
wow I am so under-impressed;
An AJC reporter has doubts. The entire staff of the AJC sports department should apologize and quietly move to Key West with the rest of their kind.
Paul
February 10th, 2011
2:14 am
5. Has the season started. 4. I lost my job, should I really care. 3. Lohan and Sheen are dating. 2. Ealey and King should really go. 1. Get a freakin life please. I need a job.
Paul
February 10th, 2011
2:16 am
I mean really. I guess that was 6.
bama
February 10th, 2011
2:29 am
lets just wait this out a bit before all the doomsday predictions.
Tron5000
February 10th, 2011
2:49 am
Somebody wake me when we reach the World Series. I don’t really care about all the other crap anymore.
guest
February 10th, 2011
3:26 am
Coach13
February 9th, 2011
2:01 pm
I completely agree Mark. No speed,sketchy D, and no legit threat in the lineup. They upgraded with UGgla no question but 30 HR a year isn’t exactly eye popping in these days.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Are you slow or something? Exactly 7 players (in all of MLB) hit more home runs than Uggla last year!!!!!
Mitchell
February 10th, 2011
3:35 am
There is cause for some concern in spite of recent upgrades at second base specifically, but whatever potential problems there might be with this team they should not be nearly as great as they were going into last season.
The Braves don’t need to be the walk-off kids they were last year in order to compete for the division. Their pitching and offense is solid enough to carry the team at least to a wild card.
I trust Fredi Gonzalez, unlike the not-great Bobby Cox, will have his team ready for opening day and will be able to instill the discipline they sorely lacked for so many years under their supposed Hall of Fame manager, who by the way, completely undermined his players’ concerted effort not to send him out as the world class loser he undoubtably is.
The embarrassing failure on display in Games 3 and 4 last year against the Giants served as indelible reminders as to why Bobby Cox won only one World Series in sixteen combined attempts and cemented his legacy as the worst post-season manager of all time.
If the Braves fail to improve upon their performance last year, I’m sure we can all find it in our hearts to give Fredi a break.
But if we can start to emphasize some of the basic fundamentals of the game, like not making errors every inning, and shift our focus on getting the best out of players instead of making excuses so nobody gets their feelings hurt, we should be fine.
Pitching still wins championships, doesn’t it? Either way, we’ve got plenty of it and no Melky Cabrera.
Could be worse.
Bryan
February 10th, 2011
3:37 am
a lot of people seem to forget that Prado plays LF in winter ball
DJD
February 10th, 2011
3:57 am
Every single team has concerns as you call it M.B. It is advisable that one should know them and acknowledge them yes. However, we already know, and have heard this over and over! Uggla has bad defense, Nate McLouth had a horrible year, and now he’s are starter…blah blah blah. Stating the obvious is not the same thing as writing a good article. I have an idea, why don’t you be creative and think of something interesting to contribute. I mean, what do you think every contender has both pitching and hitting, speed, power, defense? One more thing, if there is one thing that I find unforgivably ridiculous in your article (because you are a sportswriter) its that you say 91 wins seems to be the ceiling for the Braves. Seriously who the hell is that haughty to make such statements with such lack of statistical analysis… NO IT DOESN’T SEEM LIKE THE CEILING is 91 wins because you say 5 concerns. I have 5 concerns about you but I won’t say your ceiling is this article because that would be terribly sad sir.
DJD
February 10th, 2011
4:01 am
k
Mike
February 10th, 2011
4:18 am
Typical crap from you. You overstate the negatives and downplay the good. I know you want ratings but this is just crap.
Phillies Fan
February 10th, 2011
5:03 am
We are shaking in our boots! LOL
P. Bull Terrier
February 10th, 2011
5:06 am
Jordan Schafer is the answer to your worries. Schafer is ready to come back as the ballplayer that he was on his ride to the top, which was derailed shortly before he really arrived by a wrist injury. Schafer’s injuries are behind him now, he has cleared his head of any bad habits and lost confidence, and he’s working hard to enter spring training as the player on the rise that he was a couple of years ago. He’s still pretty young and inexperienced, but a greater level of maturity and a better understanding of what it takes to play the game at the major league level will help smooth the edges off of some of those rookie mistakes. By the middle of spring training, Center Field will belong to Jordan Schafer, as will the leadoff spot in the batting order.
Problem #1 Solved: A solid defense starts with a solid center fielder. Schafer is an above average Center Fielder. McClouth can back up all 3 outfield positions and give NewBobby some additional flexibility. If Chipper needs a bread, McClouth fills LF and Prado goes to 3B. If Uggla is a defenive liability late in the game, Prado can move to Second with McClouth filling Left.
Problem #2 Solved: With McClouth playing in a reserve role after Jordan Schafer takes over in CF, he won’t have as much pressure on him and he won’t be required to produce at the same level as a starting CF. If he turns things around, you have 4 quality outfielders for 3 positions. The competition will be good for everyone.
Problem #3 Solved: With a solid defense behind him, Kimbrel will feel confident challenging hitters and letting the defense do the work. More fly outs, more ground outs, fewer walks.
Problem #4 Solved: Jordan Schafer can run. As out new leadoff hitter, he will be a threat on the basepaths. McClouth, somewhere lower in the order, has the ability to steal a few bases. Guys like Chipper, McCann, and Hayward are smart baserunners who take an extra base whenever the opponent lets his guard down. We’re not talking about blazing speed up and down the order, but enough guys should each steal a few bases that the team ranking moves into the middle of the pack.
Problem #5 Solved: Jordan Schafer will bring the majic this year when he becomes the player he was supposed to be before all of the injuries. Starting things off right at the plate makes it easier for the hitters who follow to produce. The threat of a base stealer on first changes the opposing pitcher’s mentality resulting in more pitches to hit for the guys in the middle of the order, and a few extra stolen bases turn into a few extra runs. Covering the distance in Center Field, and making good throws into the infield is worth a few extra outs per game and gives the whole pitching staff a big boost.
You may have though the Braves had some problems, but the answer this season is the man from AA – Jordan Schafer.
GwinnettDad
February 10th, 2011
6:39 am
The only hope for the Braves is a wild card. Phillies will win 12 out of the 18 easy. I hope for that wild card, but I don’t count on it. Braves look average, hopefully better than mediocre.
Tom
February 10th, 2011
6:48 am
since Mark (stick in the mud) Bradley, (who i’m praying will get a job with espn) is predicting the Braves to suck; i’m positive they will win the pennant.
Paddy
February 10th, 2011
6:57 am
As the revered Braves manager, Eddie Haas, once said; “thats baseball”. It is those kinds of introspections from Eddie that will continue to embelish his legacy as one of the “all-time” beloved Atlanta Braves skippers! I still can’t believe he was not interviewed for the job when Bobby stepped aside? Well “thats basebal”!
Bassman
February 10th, 2011
7:27 am
What I don’t understand is why Uggla is allowed to push All-Star Prado off 2B and to the OF. Unless everyone actually expects Prado to play 3B. Prado’s the better infielder (by far). Geez, I’d rather stick Uggla in LF.
Rich
February 10th, 2011
7:29 am
what do you think about a juergens for gardner (plus someone else) with the yanks. odds are the braves will have a hard time signing him when the time comes. isn’t his agent Boras ?
Jimmy Crack
February 10th, 2011
7:39 am
Way to go out on a limb there Mark. Here’s my team prognostications:
1) The Braves may or may not make the playoffs and probably won’t make it to the second round.
2) The Hawks should make the playoffs but probably won’t make it to the second round.
3) The Falcons in 2011 should make the playoffs but probably won’t make it to the second round.
4) The Thrashers will probably leave town on a losing note and nobody will miss them. Really.
bob
February 10th, 2011
7:47 am
Big Fan of the Braves. But no way I am going to waste my time worrying about them, terrorists or if the ajc survives in the internet age.
urban redneck
February 10th, 2011
7:51 am
5 reasons I am not worried:
1. Jason Heyward
2. Uggla’s 30 HRs (God bless his little heart)
3. Huddy
4. Hanson’s first 20 win season
5. Bobby Cox watching over us as we sleep
We shouldn’t have a problem til we get to the BoSox in the Series.
Double Zero Eight
February 10th, 2011
7:54 am
I am more concerned about your number two reason.
I am afraid that the downward spiral will continue
for McClouth.
urban redneck
February 10th, 2011
7:55 am
and i’m pretty sure p. bull terrier is actually jordan schafer at home playing on the interweb……
i am a big schafer fan, but i fail to see how inserting him into CF helps uggla play better D.
J
February 10th, 2011
8:03 am
Think back to worst to first so long long ago …. what changed the game in Atlanta? The difference was DEFENSE – Pendleton at third (who could also hit), Rafael Belliard (who could not hit a lick), Mark Lemke (barely timely hitting – except the playoffs), and Sid “I can’t run … but just enough” Bream. All of these infielders was SOLID defensively. The pitching was coming around but had some weak folks too. The defense won that year more than anything else – plus Otis getting on every leadoff at bat.I think the defense is a real question for these Braves and that could indeed make pitching look far worse that its potential.
Cecil34
February 10th, 2011
8:05 am
There was something definately paranormal about last season – had to be for the Braves to qualify for postseason with that roster.
Can you say “backed in”?
Anyway, that is what wild cards are for, to provide entertainment value and more importantly, more revenue.
If the planets align properly, then the Braves could be very competitive.
That is a big “if.”
A lot of that “if” is Chipper.
Phil
February 10th, 2011
8:05 am
No more Bobby Cox is the best thing that’s happened to the Braves in last 15 years. Unfortunately we still have Frank Wren who couldn’t spot
talent if it was standing right in front of him. Look at all the trade busts and free agent busts he has come up with the last 2 years.
1 clown down and 1 to go.
John G.
February 10th, 2011
8:10 am
Mark, your concerns are all legitimate. I’m afraid we’re going to miss Billy Wags–a lot.
Double Zero Eight
February 10th, 2011
8:15 am
Number 6: The Braves miss Leo M. as their pitching coach.
The pitching staff was handled better when he was here..
Smiling Jack
February 10th, 2011
8:18 am
“That’s what I do. I worry.” No, you write negative newspaper articles. If worry is what you do, then that’s one sad life. How about writing “Five Reasons to be Excited about the Braves 2011 Season.?
5150 P.O.A.D
February 10th, 2011
8:24 am
Chipper needs to retire! He is a dead weight around the neck of the team!
Bobby Cox
February 10th, 2011
8:26 am
I can run faster than Chipper!!
John Tucker
February 10th, 2011
8:38 am
A win-win trade for the teams and players would be Chipper Jones to the Ranges for Michael Young. It would give the Braves a durable .300 hitter who is durable enough to get at least 600 at-bats and versatile enough to play in the field at all IF positions and in LF. It woul;d give the Rangers a reliable hitter at DH and extend Chipper’s career. Otherwise, Chipper will get hurt agan trying to carry the braves on his back, and Michael Young will not be playing and will be given away by Texas so the Rangers’ front office can try to save face over their off season moves that crowded .a 3-time gold glover and .300 hitter for the last 6 years out of the line up.
Also, the Braves will pay Ypung about what they owe Chipper for 2011 and 2012 and get more production from Young than the injury-prone Chipper, whose ego and talk are no longer matched by his swagger or abilities
Ryan
February 10th, 2011
8:53 am
Bradley I agree with #1 and #4. Stop being such a nervous nelly about Mcclouth. If he hits .250 he’ll give us a lift since he’s one of the few guys on the team with footspeed. That should help alleviate your concerns for #4. The fielding to me is the only thing I question. Of all the things to worry about on this team Mccann or his defense isn’t something that should concern you. He’s the best in the league.
Kelvin
February 10th, 2011
8:56 am
MB, I think those are all valid concerns. Especially with McLouth in center field. Some fans don’t want an honest assessment of their teams. They would rather stick their head in the sand and pretend everything is fine. Keep up the good work MB.
Harley Riders
February 10th, 2011
9:01 am
DOB is riding Harley’s with his former Marlins 3B friend and now Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez. And then posting the optimistim of next season. Let’s take a look at this team closely.
1)Chipper is 39 years-old and coming off yet another injured season. Braves are counting on his bat to produce .300 25 100 to win the division. He looks good so far against 75 mph straight fastballs in the cage…
2)The closers role is between Venters and Kimbrel, both who will walk a lot of batters. You can’t walk batters in the 9th inning holding a one run lead. Who knows what we will get there ?
3)Jason Heyward has been hailed as the next Hank Aaron. Please look up Hank Aaron’s stats and you’ll see years like .325 46 125. Bobby Cox “The ball sounds different coming off his bat”. Last year he was very average for a rookie. We are expecting numbers like Barry Bonds from him but we got numbers like Jeff Blauser’s…But maybe he will be a star ?
4)The 4th and 5th spots in the starting pitching rotation are shaky at best. Jurrgens coming off injury and rookies like Beachy,Minor,etc. are questionable. Why not bring up Teheran ? But let’s baby him first in the minors…
5)CF – Nate McOut is not the answer. He’s just a $7 million dollar reason to be playing there. It’s like having your grandaddy on the payroll making $50,000 because he STARTED the company. He’s not productive any more but still gets the 50 g’s…
A good GM would have traded some of those young pitchers for a good CF. If you’ve got 30 good young pitchers in your minor league systam not all of them could make the team even if all 30 were good enough. Not enough spots. So the Braves are stockpiling young pitching in the minors while letting a AA player like McOut start in CF and handicap the MLB team ? As Confuscious say : “Not much light equal not too bright”.
ramblingman
February 10th, 2011
9:05 am
Funny that one poster says everything MB wrote is a fact, especially when 20% of the article consisted of “they might not have the magic from last year”, and the rest of it is basically “I think X might not be good” or “the defense/speed/whatever might be bad”. Sounds like someone needs to look up the definition of fact.
Another poster claims Wren is a clown and would not recognize talent “if it was standing in front of him”, saying to look at all his trade and free agent busts.
Okay, let’s look at some of the names Wren has acquired via trade:
JJ and Gorkys Hernandez
Will Ohman and Omar Infante (for Jose Ascaino)
Javier Vazquez
Arodys Vizcaino and Michael Dunn
Uggla
How about some of his free agent signings/waiver claims/resignings:
Hudson
Wagner
Saito
Glaus
Hinske
Soriano
EOF
Ross
Salcedo
Chisthian Martinez
Plus, he also:
Allowed Vazquez to leave, opening the door for Hudson to return
Allowed KJ to leave, opening the door for Prado
drafted Minor
rebuilt what is generally considered a top-3 farm system
If that constitutes a clown, we should all go to the circus.
Harley Riders
February 10th, 2011
9:08 am
Lay off the pipe multi-posting dude. Rangers aren’t trading a 25 year-old star like Michael Young for an about to retire HOFer like Chipper in his last year. Its like trading a 2011 Siverado for a 1982 Custom Deluxe. Damn…
john
February 10th, 2011
9:10 am
HEY CHEWYANDRW…
Turner Feild is top 10 for attendance for MLB the last decade for Beaves Baseball, so your accusation about folks not coming to games is a lie, avg well over 2 million every year. Not too bad for a team that had made the playoffs only 1 time the last 5 years. Get facts brother!
Harley Riders
February 10th, 2011
9:10 am
I’m buying the popcorn !!!!
Harley Riders
February 10th, 2011
9:14 am
Mark, you an I are on the same wavelength about the Braves my friend.
Harley Riders
February 10th, 2011
9:18 am
5)CF – Nate McOut is not the answer. He’s just a $7 million dollar reason to be playing there. It’s like having your grandaddy on the payroll making $50,000 because he STARTED the company. He’s not productive any more but still gets the 50 g’s…
I want to add… But unlike your gradad who sits at home out of the way, McOut is actually playing and going 0-4 killing rallies and then misjudging fly balls in the OF and making popcorn throws prolonging the innings for opposing teams…
Coach13
February 10th, 2011
9:19 am
Ray- I admitted they definitely upgraded the offense with Uggla but when guys are still hitting 40 and 50 HR I would not say that 30 is eye popping. Throwing 91 mph is not eyepopping but it’s nice to have.
Big Spanky
February 10th, 2011
9:22 am
Mark, I love the picture you chose of McLouth misjudging a fly ball. Its so touche’.
Scott
February 10th, 2011
9:23 am
Have to agree with you Mark on the centerfield situation. How do you let a player like Rick Ankiel leave? The guy has a monster of an arm and I thought his range was better than average. No one has been that good since #25 in the late 90’s. Late in games you need the best defense out there and I think Ankiel’s are will be missed.
Big Spanky
February 10th, 2011
9:24 am
I hate to but I have to agree with Mark & Harley. The Braves have a lot of question marks.