5 reasons to be concerned about your 2011 Atlanta Braves
"Now boarding: Flight 2011, bound for ... October?" (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
Ever notice how every player and manager always says he’s “excited” about spring training? Because every player and manager always is. Spring training is the fun part. But somebody has to function as a wet blanket, and here I stand. (Or drape, as the case may be.) Here are five reasons I’m concerned about the local nine as it readies for Lake Buena Vista.
1. The defense could be deadly. Dan Uggla will help the batting order, OK? We’re agreed there. But Uggla is a bad defender — 47 errors over the past three seasons, which is a bunch for a second baseman — and he’s the new Braves second baseman. Which means Martin Prado moves to left field, where he has played a total of three big-league games. Even if Chipper Jones is healthy, he’ll still turn 39 in April. And Alex Gonzalez, who turns 34 next month, was a major defensive disappointment.
Think about it: At how many positions do the Braves have a first-rate defender? Freddie Freeman should be fine at first base, but Brian McCann is only OK, and even Jason Heyward had some odd moments in right field last season. I worry that some fine pitchers will be undercut by the men stationed behind — or, in McCann’s case, in front of — them. But that’s what I do. I worry.
2. Nate McLouth is again projected as the center fielder. That’s a major position on any ballclub, and I haven’t seen anything from McLouth since he arrived in June 2009 that makes me think he’s even a minor asset. (From what I’ve seen, the Pirates got rid of him just as his career took the ol’ Matterhorn nosedive.)
It was noteworthy that Rick Ankiel was the Braves’ starting center fielder in the Division Series even though McLouth was on the active roster. The Braves thought so little of Ankiel they let him leave after the season, and now they plan to run McLouth out there again. Maybe this makes sense to you. It doesn’t to me.
3. Craig Kimbrel walks people. The Braves haven’t officially designated Kimbrel their closer, but they’re clearly leaning that way. And he has everything you’d want in a closer … except control.
Over 151 minor-league innings, Kimbrel walked 95 batters. (That’s an average of 5.7 walks per nine innings, which is terrible.) He walked 16 men in 20 2/3 big-league innings after his promotion. He walked Travis Ishikawa in the devastating ninth inning of Game 3 of the NLDS, and sure enough Ishikawa scored the tying run.
Speaking Wednesday at Turner Field, Kimbrel said: “From right now until the season, [working on control] becomes my focus. I want to improve it.”
It’s not an option. Either Kimbrel throws strikes or he doesn’t work the ninth inning. As Jeff Brantley, himself a closer, once said after watching John Rocker blow a save via bases on balls: “You can’t walk people if you want to close.”
4. There’s still no speed. The Braves ranked 14th in a 16-team league in stolen bases in 2010, and their new position players are Freeman, who’s no deer, and Uggla, who has 19 steals in five big-league seasons. The guess is that Fredi Gonzalez would like to play more Small Ball than his managerial predecessor, but he wouldn’t seem to have the tools.
5. Magic might not be transferable. Last season the Braves won 25 games in their final at-bat. Much went wrong along the way, but enough games went improbably right at the end for this team to slip into the playoffs on the final day. It was a wild ride and a good ride and, not incidentally, Bobby Cox’s last ride, but the doings of 2010 weren’t anyone’s concept of a blueprint.
The 2011 Braves have Uggla and Freeman and Kimbrel but will be missing Billy Wagner and Omar Infante and Troy Glaus — who in one month changed the course of 2010, let’s not forget — and Matt Diaz. This team will again pitch well, and it figures to hit better than it did last season while fielding worse. It took 91 wins to qualify for postseason in 2010, and that number would seem the ceiling for the 2011 Braves.
By Mark Bradley
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387 comments Add your comment
dawg4u
February 9th, 2011
7:09 pm
C’mon folks, lets give Mark the benefit of the doubt. When Mark doubts the Braves usually benefit. Seriously though how can anyone look at our projected starting lineup and not be concerned about our defense. I know I am at shortstop and at second. Chipper will be 39 in April and McCann is just not that good defensively. We will miss Infante and Wagner and probably Matt Diaz but I am still optimistic that Fredi will pull off a good managing job with the pieces he has. I think two big keys to our success will be Freeman and McLouth. As MB points out though, we do have concerns. On the positive side the NL as a whole is not that impressive with only the Phillies and Giants being clearly better and the Braves won the season series last year against both teams but the Phillies are definitely loaded this year with the addition of Cliff Lee. It should be a very competitive and interesting season for the ‘11 Braves.
waterstim
February 9th, 2011
7:14 pm
The defense last year was amazingly bad, especially the 2nd half
JC Boscan II
February 9th, 2011
7:21 pm
Hey Mark — I think it’s OK for a baseball fan to face the new season with optimism, but also being aware of some of the big concerns, so thanks! I think it can be a useful list to keep in mind as spring training unfolds. Spring training might help to clarify some of these 5. For example, McLouth might appear to have his issues resolved. If so, that will be a great help, especially if Fredi gives him the shot at stealing 25-30 bases. BUT, if he struggles, either Schafer OR Matt Young could be interesting options. Even though Young is older than your usual prospect, he hit .300 last year against lefties AND righties. He stole a lot of bases AND can play 2nd base if needed. If he has a hot spring, he could surprise people and be a possible solution as CF or as a utility man. That’s just one example of what spring training is supposed to be for fans — an opportunity to see what positive surprises might show up!! Go Braves………..
jfreak13713
February 9th, 2011
7:26 pm
This article assume the Braves won’t make any changes if the defense is terrible around the Allstar break and assumes that certain guys won’t get better like Heyward and Prado? Uggla, McCann, Chipper, and Gonzalez are who they are and defense is not it but hopefully Prado, McLouth, and Heyward will be solid in the field and if NEED BE look for trade help around Allstar break?
The Bullpen is an unkown and I we’ll just have to wait and see!
worn out
February 9th, 2011
7:29 pm
ok folks its time to find a big oak tree and hang ourselves…
kt
February 9th, 2011
7:31 pm
Some valid points MB. defense will be a trouble spot…Perhaps the Braves will end the season as the NL leader in errors.
stew
February 9th, 2011
7:37 pm
I think we’re vastly improved with Uggla. We had no righty power last year. It really depends on Hoss. If Hoss is right, I think we’re better than the Phils. Phils really haven’t replaced Werth. Polanco,Rollins, and Utley are always injury prone. Braves are gonna rake. Even the pitching overall is better with Kimbel and Venters in the back of the bullpen and five great starters (except Lowe). Braves have the better lineup and overall pitching. Just gotta replace some losers (McLoser, Sherill, Lopez, Linebrink, and Lowe). Fine tune the team. Marek for Linebrink. Minor for 4th spot. Beachy for 5th spot. We don’t need mentors! We don’t need Linebrink and Sherill to hold it for Kimbrel and Ventors when they pee. We’re better than the Phils. Hamels is overrated. Oswalt is gonna get hurt.Lee was only 12-9 not worth the money he got. It’s time for Doc Hallyday to get sick. 2012 Teheran and Delgado join the fun. Braves will dominate Phils mark my words. GO BRAVES!
Robert
February 9th, 2011
7:37 pm
How about Juan Rivera in left field? Heard the Jays are already looking to trade him.
What??
February 9th, 2011
7:39 pm
F___ Bradley – Nobody wants to hear this negative stuff so early on. How about looking at the things that have improved from last year’s team?
1. Adding a legitimate #4 hitter which the Braves have lacked for a long time. It doesn’t just improve that spot, it allows McCann to hit 5th where he should be and so on which improves the entire line up.
2. Shafer seems ready to step in if McClouth stinks (which I feel like he probably will). The Braves also have a stockpile of minor league arms that people would love to trade for. Bradley fails to note this position of strength that will allow the Braves to address in weaknesses that emerge.
steve
February 9th, 2011
7:40 pm
And Fragile Freedie Freeman won’t make it past may at 1st base… mark my words.
JCH
February 9th, 2011
7:51 pm
91 game ceiling? Really?
I understand and agree with many of your “worries” but you ignore the positives from the players you mention as well as ignore the management moves.
1. Glaus did have a hell of a month and definitely put the team on his back when we needed it most. Apparently the weight of this feat broke him as he spent the rest of the season doing his best, and more than a few would argue succeed in, giving back all he’d help the team accomplish. You cant honestly say you wish he were on the team, can you?
2. Pitching, topknot bottom, should be improved over an excellent 2010 staff. Wagner is a loss, most likely anyway, he is getting up there you know. Saito was good but could only be used sparingly because he’s already up there. No one will argue Kimbrell has control issues but he also posted a fantastic ERA and you “forgot” to mention he stuck out almost 2/inning in the majors in 2010. Hanson, Hudson are fine, Jurrjens is poised, hopefully, for a resurgence which leaves Lowe and the #5 as the only pitching questions for which we are the most loaded in the majors for these particular answers.
3. The offense will be MUCH improved with Uggla, Heyward 2 and Freeman.
4. McClouth is a serious question mark. But, we do have Scheafer (sp?) as a back up. I know, another question mark but you gotta hope you get it right with one of them.
5. Our defense will be tested for sure. But I think our offensive improvements and outstanding pitching will outweigh this deficiency.
I think the 2011 Braves will edge out the offensively challenged Phillies by matching their pitching staff well enough for us to out hit them. With that said, I can see them in the World Series next October.
ramblingman
February 9th, 2011
7:55 pm
There is one reason that overrides those 5 and ensures the Braves will have a successful season. That one reason is the fact that MB is already writing doomsday stuff about them.
Note to MB – if you get perpetual troll and whiner fish bisch to agree with you, it’s way past time to reconsider your stance.
The team has improved over last year’s team. The outlook is pretty good. On top of that, it’s freaking Spring Training time – time for eternal optimism.
Go Braves.
rc35
February 9th, 2011
8:03 pm
I’m concerned that the Braves are ready to hand 1B to Freddie Freeman–24 AB, 8 strikeouts, 4 hits, 1 RBI. He sounds so far like the second coming of Jack Pierce back in the 1970’s. I hope I’m wrong, but 1B could be the biggest hole in the Braves’ leaky boat.
sidslidkid
February 9th, 2011
8:12 pm
Mark Bradley writing something negative??? I can’t believe it. Mark, just once i’d like to see something like “5 reasons to be excited about your 2011 Atlanta Braves”. Then again if I were going up against writers like DOB I’d stick to gimmicks too.
Marky McDowner
February 9th, 2011
8:27 pm
@mark bradley
I guess your great blog on UgaVIII was a momentary venture into quality that you quickly abandoned for a return to your AJC “bait the fans to maximize hits” formula.
Do you even remember what it was like to be proud of your job?
raleighbravefan
February 9th, 2011
8:27 pm
Now I know the truth…MB is really Don from the “real” Braves Blog (which is written by 2 reporters that actually know what they are talking about). Go back to covering SEC football, Bradley.
chasjons
February 9th, 2011
8:40 pm
5 Reasons to be optimistic:
1) Mclouth can only go up from last year (I think) with his numbers.
2) We have a right handed power hitter now. Just think how valuable Glaus was when he was healthy. Maybe Uggla could do the same.
3) Uggla may be a better fielder than we give him credit for. Now that he is away from Florida and there rugged infield his numbers should improve.
4) Heyward (hopefully) will put up better numbers now that he has seen some pitchers and is healthy.
5) Freeman should be an upgrade at first. Glaus was great for one month, but other than that we didn’t have much production at first. D. Lee was ineffective for the most part.
But, overall the defense is not great, so we will have to keep an eye on that. Not too worried about the speed issue, but it would be nice to have someone with some zip.
jg
February 9th, 2011
8:40 pm
for the record, Bradley, Ugla played 2nd base on the worst field in baseball the last 5 years too. And Martin Prado, if you didn’t know (not surprised) plays left field every winter league. Dumbass
kral
February 9th, 2011
8:41 pm
markie maarkie…you have written two blog or gossip starters in one day for me to read…elll your picture is a smile your words are doom and gloom..down UGA bb…5 reasons the Braves will fail..Elll..move to another paper….you get ratings for how many bloggers you get..gushed after UGA beat KY..now have lost all confidence in them..insinuated a coaching problem which some idiots..jumped on..BB..lordy…I do not not how you sleep at night or look at your self in the mirror with respect after some of the crap you write..even if it is to stir up blogs that is pretty low right there
SawThat1nce
February 9th, 2011
8:43 pm
All of the folks worrying about the negative things MB has to say about the Braves, should relax.
He will probably come out with a complete reversal in a few days, about how great he thinks the Braves are.
Oh yeah, MB doesn’t like Bon Jovi, doesn’t like Bon Jovi, doesn’t like Bon Jovi, doesn’t like Bon Jovi, doesn’t like Bon Jovi. I believe that is how many time he repeated it, in his blog the other day.
JOHN
February 9th, 2011
8:44 pm
SEE I AM NOT THE ONLY ONE DOWN ON YOU . YOU NUT GIVE THEM TIME .
bobbymahlon
February 9th, 2011
8:45 pm
My biggest concern is every player in the league now knows McLouth cannot throw and are taking the extra base on him slow runners as well as the speed demons. I have asked many times did he have and injury or hasn’t he been able to throw the ball since day one. No answers from any of the so called experts. If anyone knows the scoop please let me know. Thanks in advance.
JOHN
February 9th, 2011
8:51 pm
YOU A NUT FOR NOT PUTING MY COMMENT ON . YOU HAVE ALREADY PUT SOME BAD STUFF ON TODAY.
kral
February 9th, 2011
8:52 pm
markie markie..first you UGA BB blog…now your Braves blog…your good..you could stir up gossip in a nunnery..write I am not sure..antagonize..your good…replace your picture with a frown..your’re so positve
kral
February 9th, 2011
8:58 pm
Take time to read David O’brien article..now that was good writing..you ..have I said real housewife of ajc before
Sean
February 9th, 2011
9:00 pm
I wonder if the Braves would be at all tempted to trade for Micheal Young of the Rangers? The guy is willing to move/switch positions (somewhat). Talk him into playing left, move Prado to center, and move McLouth to somewhere else (like to the Rangers).
ZombievShark
February 9th, 2011
9:05 pm
Seriously…this is incredibly premature, and a big reason I think the Braves don’t have the fanbase they should. Does an establishment usually see a dip in business after negative publicity from the local newspaper? Absolutely. Get off the team’s back AJC and get some real fans to write for you. Damn it.
Joshua Barlowe
February 9th, 2011
9:06 pm
Even if we did have speed, we would never steal bases. That’s not how the Braves do things. Think that will change now that Bobby is gone? Maybe, but I doubt it.
I am worried about the defense, however. What is the latest on Jordan Schaefer? Has he made any progress at all in Gwinnett/Mississippi?
Joshua Barlowe
February 9th, 2011
9:10 pm
I think the AJC columnists get paid $10 for every comment on one of their posts.
Thus, they are always trying to rile up trouble.
You’re welcome ($10 more).
ATLfan94
February 9th, 2011
9:14 pm
That’s the way Mark, just keep the negative vibes going even before the season starts. This whole article is a joke, why do you point out 5 reasons to worry about the Braves? How about 5 reasons to be excited about the Braves? You are a joke, write something positive until you actually have a reason to write something negative about the Braves. GO BRAVES!!!
Bravesgirl24
February 9th, 2011
9:16 pm
Enter your comments here
Katherine
February 9th, 2011
9:26 pm
whatev
February 9th, 2011
1:53 pm
Can you at least get to Spring Training before you start taking a dump on the Braves. Theres always unknowns with any team. Thats why you hold judgement until some games are played
I have to agree….why so negative? Spring training hasn’t even started yet… I just hate all the negativity from this paper sometimes……..
Chipper's ACL
February 9th, 2011
9:40 pm
Nothing wrong with this article. All that is stated is fact. This team has no speed. Not one player will reach 20 steals. Nate is the only one that may reach double digits but he may not get on base enough. The defense will be bad. Uggla will probably have the most errors by a 2 bagger this season as will Chipper, if he plays 120 games. Same for McCann. We all hope this team can come together and produce a season similar to ‘10. Lots of “if’s” and “could be’s” this year. Funny part is everyone assumes the pitching will be strong. Which Lowe will show up, the one that pitched in Sept last year or the one that was on the mound the first few months of the season? Will JJ be back to form? Will Hanson believe in his fastball and dominate or continue to nibble and be a .500 pitcher? Will one of the rookies in the 5th slot step up and make a difference? This team has lots of “if’s”. They could win 90 or lose 90. I’d say we won’t know until May which direction they will go. That said we all hope for the best.
loserville, usa
February 9th, 2011
9:56 pm
Hey Mark, while you’re at it, can you go ahead and assess the Falcons, Bulldawgs, and Yellow Jackets for next year. Need to know ahead of time so I won’t waste my time with local sports. When does Dancing With The Stars begin? Oh wait, sometimes there are sports figures on that show too! Go ahead and give me your assessment on them too! I give up!
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February 9th, 2011
10:01 pm
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Gen Neyland
February 9th, 2011
10:25 pm
So much for a suicidal moment, MB. How about a few soothing words to talk us down from the 80th floor balcony..? Like, With luck we’ll be playing for the wildcard this year…
Peter
February 9th, 2011
10:29 pm
Thanks Mark for saying what I have said for the past 6 months, concerning errors, and team speed.
We gave SF the best run for it out of all the playoff teams they faced, we just did ourselves in with mistakes.
I currently am hopeful about Nate in center.
I personally hope he becomes the come back player of 2011, steals 28 bases, hits .290 with 35 doubles and 18 homers.
But of course there is reality.
I do agree loosing Wagner was tough, but we do have to find a closer, and that will be interesting.
HaveToAgree
February 9th, 2011
10:30 pm
@whatev … the time to think about glaring weaknesses is BEFORE the season starts. after the ball gets rolling, you can make some adjustments, but the foundation is examined in the offseason. yeah, yeah, all teams have weaknesses, but this team has some glaring problems. when you look back at the teams of the ’90s, they had strong pitching AND strong defense – this team has the pitching, but the defense leaves more than a little to be desired. the offense will be improved, but by how much?
Playoffs!?!?
February 9th, 2011
10:41 pm
Here’s reason # 6 to be concerned: The Braves are left-handed hitting heavy with Jason Heyward, Brian McCann, Freddy Freeman and Nate McClouth all in the starting lineup. We”ll see every lefty starter and every leftthander out of the bullpen. Lefthanded pitchers will come out of the woodwork to face us.
That doesn’t bode well for the development of Freddy Freeman or any possible Nate MClouth comeback. McCann can hit leftys but his power numbers take a hit. And Heyward’s numbers against southpaws are not nearly as good as against righhanders.
Actually, this should be reason #2 to be concerned, right after the subpar defense.
BravesGurl1983
February 9th, 2011
10:43 pm
lol @ the person who thinks we can afford Cliff Lee… keep dreaming, buddy, keep dreaming. but hey, if you’re going to dream, it might as well be big
monty
February 9th, 2011
11:15 pm
Nate couldn’t possibly hit any worse, Chipper will hit better, Uggla helps much more than hurts,true power bat we’ve been needing,Prado and JHey healthy all year, things are looking great!
jg
February 9th, 2011
11:20 pm
Chippers Acl, you are so wise. You and Bradley are two of the whiniest children I have ever not met.
Let’s examine every one of Bradley’s points of view: Uggla at 2nd, guy is not the most talented 2nd basemen in the league, and did have the most errors in the NL last year; aside from his offense which I won’t even bring to the table for what does for this team from so many different levels, the guy played in Florida on a football field. If anyone here has ever taken ground balls on any type of field other than a decent baseball field you know it’s a little different. Also, you don’t bother to mention that the guy turns about as nice of a double play in the NL, solid feet, accurate throws.
Mccann: Could use a little work on his blocking the plate and accepting throws but again, the average sometimes worse sometimes better is getting made up for in the greatest way possible on Offense. Did Mccann win the silver slugger this past year, Mark? I seriously don’t know. I do know he has more Silver Sluggers than Joe Mauer in his career, as well as hr’s and rbi’s, and has been in the league a year less. But again, you just want to mention one small piece. You have to look at the whole picture, jerk.
As for Prado, he is probably one of the best all around athletes on the team if you have not seen him play that much, which I think is possible, some how….???…. and he plays EVERY YEAR OFF IN LEFT FIELD IN THE WINTER LEAGUE. You have to know this, why not even mention it. I am just a dumb fan, how do I know more as to what’s going on here???? Good golly!!!
Freeman is pretty close to a gem at 1st. VERY solid.
Heyward has probably worked on the few types of balls that give him trouble. ABOVE AVERAGE out there. Dude covers major ground. Watch him, I promise, if you’ll watch.
2)If our back up plan to Nate (whom we made it the playoffs with last year for most of it, couldn’t be much worse right?) is Jordan S., Folks I’ll tell you right here if you haven’t watched what this guy can do on the field… As good as it gets. Guy shags everything and has a solid arm. Can hit too when his hand isn’t broke, either way, he’ll give .190, check out how many walks he had when he was up. Not bad replacement at all.
Kimbrell is only getting better for the most part and walked much less after the season progressed, not as much as your inflated (factual) stats make it appear, jerkbot.
as far as speed goes, you’re right. though we did okay last year with out speed. would love to have it, but we don’t.
As for not having your Vaunted Glaus, why don’t you remember who you were bashing at the beginning of the article. Uggla is a Minotaur!! How do you not even say one thing of this if you want to talk offense??? again, jerko, play the whole song before saying it sucks.
Freeman will impress
Diaz did nothing last year.
I’m done with you. You seriously have a horrible outlook on life and are very lucky that a paper, such as the AJC, would ever exist in order for you to land a job in this business…. Only the AJC folks, pure unadulterated, crap
Steve
February 9th, 2011
11:22 pm
Nothing Mark said isn’t true, especially #5. We won a ton of games last year we shouldn’t have. Don’t expect the same results this year.
boog
February 9th, 2011
11:22 pm
The concerns that you bring to light are real and well thought out. One just hopes that Heyward will have an even better year than last. McClouth will return to somewhere close to the player he use to be. And Chipper can hit 270 – 20 hr – and play a decent 3b. Freeman should be an upgrade at First even if he just hits 250. If we pitch like last year we will be a wild card team…if not…the concerns that you point out could make for a disappointing season.
jg
February 9th, 2011
11:26 pm
yes, chipper is old. We’ll see what the old man does before you kill’m.
Guess that’s what they play’m for, eh Mark?
Dork
Navigator
February 9th, 2011
11:27 pm
It’s really simple, the Braves will start to slide and won’t stop until Chipper leaves and takes Frank Wren with him. They got rid of an allstar to get a weak second baseman, slow and dead at third, huge hole in center, no proven closer and an holes in the starters. Will this team even finish above .500??
faux positive
February 9th, 2011
11:37 pm
MB has aright to express his opinion. He may be correct or not If you think MB is to tough on thr team so early, you should read the ny sportswriters or boston. After all all he wrote was that mclout is a bust he’s right so far. Schaffer is coming off a difficult surgery and has a history of a 50 day suspension too. Freeman for all the hype is still untried and tested at the major league level. Alex G was a bust on defense and a little better on offense. Chipper is also untested with both his injury and age. I get ill when I read about Elvis Andrus and that trade. Matt Diaz is gone, we’re gonna miss him. Jason Heywood hopefully will be more consistant this year hopefull too. It may take freddie g. a couple of years to get rid of the bobby cox influenced team so that he can have the team he would like.
Can’t wait for the season though.
Whopper Dawg
February 9th, 2011
11:41 pm
Well, yeah, everything you said was on the mark. Bigger problem than all of those is the Phillies. Best case, you are playing for second in the east and NL. I would project the Braves as third or fourth in the east.
doug h
February 9th, 2011
11:51 pm
if you hate atlanta sports so much quit and move away
Jim Pierce
February 9th, 2011
11:56 pm
Sigh: ONCE again, Mark, another negative lead in. You truly are a “glass half empty” guy. lol Amazing. But? It pays the bills i guess.