5 reasons to be concerned about your 2011 Atlanta Braves
"Now boarding: Flight 2011, bound for ... October?" (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
Ever notice how every player and manager always says he’s “excited” about spring training? Because every player and manager always is. Spring training is the fun part. But somebody has to function as a wet blanket, and here I stand. (Or drape, as the case may be.) Here are five reasons I’m concerned about the local nine as it readies for Lake Buena Vista.
1. The defense could be deadly. Dan Uggla will help the batting order, OK? We’re agreed there. But Uggla is a bad defender — 47 errors over the past three seasons, which is a bunch for a second baseman — and he’s the new Braves second baseman. Which means Martin Prado moves to left field, where he has played a total of three big-league games. Even if Chipper Jones is healthy, he’ll still turn 39 in April. And Alex Gonzalez, who turns 34 next month, was a major defensive disappointment.
Think about it: At how many positions do the Braves have a first-rate defender? Freddie Freeman should be fine at first base, but Brian McCann is only OK, and even Jason Heyward had some odd moments in right field last season. I worry that some fine pitchers will be undercut by the men stationed behind — or, in McCann’s case, in front of — them. But that’s what I do. I worry.
2. Nate McLouth is again projected as the center fielder. That’s a major position on any ballclub, and I haven’t seen anything from McLouth since he arrived in June 2009 that makes me think he’s even a minor asset. (From what I’ve seen, the Pirates got rid of him just as his career took the ol’ Matterhorn nosedive.)
It was noteworthy that Rick Ankiel was the Braves’ starting center fielder in the Division Series even though McLouth was on the active roster. The Braves thought so little of Ankiel they let him leave after the season, and now they plan to run McLouth out there again. Maybe this makes sense to you. It doesn’t to me.
3. Craig Kimbrel walks people. The Braves haven’t officially designated Kimbrel their closer, but they’re clearly leaning that way. And he has everything you’d want in a closer … except control.
Over 151 minor-league innings, Kimbrel walked 95 batters. (That’s an average of 5.7 walks per nine innings, which is terrible.) He walked 16 men in 20 2/3 big-league innings after his promotion. He walked Travis Ishikawa in the devastating ninth inning of Game 3 of the NLDS, and sure enough Ishikawa scored the tying run.
Speaking Wednesday at Turner Field, Kimbrel said: “From right now until the season, [working on control] becomes my focus. I want to improve it.”
It’s not an option. Either Kimbrel throws strikes or he doesn’t work the ninth inning. As Jeff Brantley, himself a closer, once said after watching John Rocker blow a save via bases on balls: “You can’t walk people if you want to close.”
4. There’s still no speed. The Braves ranked 14th in a 16-team league in stolen bases in 2010, and their new position players are Freeman, who’s no deer, and Uggla, who has 19 steals in five big-league seasons. The guess is that Fredi Gonzalez would like to play more Small Ball than his managerial predecessor, but he wouldn’t seem to have the tools.
5. Magic might not be transferable. Last season the Braves won 25 games in their final at-bat. Much went wrong along the way, but enough games went improbably right at the end for this team to slip into the playoffs on the final day. It was a wild ride and a good ride and, not incidentally, Bobby Cox’s last ride, but the doings of 2010 weren’t anyone’s concept of a blueprint.
The 2011 Braves have Uggla and Freeman and Kimbrel but will be missing Billy Wagner and Omar Infante and Troy Glaus — who in one month changed the course of 2010, let’s not forget — and Matt Diaz. This team will again pitch well, and it figures to hit better than it did last season while fielding worse. It took 91 wins to qualify for postseason in 2010, and that number would seem the ceiling for the 2011 Braves.
By Mark Bradley
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387 comments Add your comment
rockinreel
February 9th, 2011
3:54 pm
I think all you people insulting Mark are gay. You have a man crush on the Braves roster and pout when they get insulted, whether it’s true or not. I enjoyed the article. I’m not a braves news junky. Some of you have your head so far up the club house that nothing is new to you. Spare the rest of us with your supercilious stance on most AJC sports blogs.
jtdawg
February 9th, 2011
3:56 pm
When are you going to have a year where you don’t dump on some local team before the season even starts?
Dump on them when you fail all you want, but why be negative before they even convene on the field even once?
Negative Nancy…..
collegeballfan
February 9th, 2011
4:00 pm
OK you convinced me Bradley. The Braves will be battling the Nationals for last.
I can’t wait till 2012.
Peace
February 9th, 2011
4:02 pm
@rockinreel How nice of you to add to the discourse.
Fish Bisch
February 9th, 2011
4:02 pm
excellent article Mark. I’ve been trying to say these things over on DOB’s blog. I get booed out all the time for being so negative. I, like you, am only stating facts and resonable concerns for this team heading into the season.
Peace
February 9th, 2011
4:09 pm
Some of you act like we’re the Pirates.
Ramblinwreck83
February 9th, 2011
4:20 pm
chewyandrw
I wasn’t necessarily comparing the ‘95 team to this years or last years. I was just making the point that every year, every team has some issues that need to be addressed before the season and during the season. It’s no different than most every team in the Majors except the teams that spend entirely too much money to buy a championship. i.e. yankees, red sox and even the phillies now. I think there needs to be some real regulation on the spending to get the best player that money can buy. Regardless of that, the braves have less problems than last year. They actually got a real power hitter this year. That’s always a plus, but the other issues may not turn out to be that big of issues. The defense could work hard in spring training and be better than expected. The speed issue has always been there for the Braves. I really like our pitching b/c there pretty good and young. The position players aren’t that bad. I know Uggla isn’t very good but, I think Chipper will be fine when he’s in the line up. Gonzo needs to get better. Nate is good in the outfield but the hitting has got to come around. Maybe last year was an abberation (I hope). Prado will be fine in left. He plays left field when he playing for his country in the WBC as i’ve read numerous times. I have normally always been a realist and had the same views as you and Mark but, i feel different this year. Maybe b/c of the new manager, hitting coach and a few players. I believe its theirime again. Hell if SF and GB can win a championship and barely get into the playoffs, then it makes me feel good that all they have to do is get on run and see what happens. Also, there are worse things in Tech’s athletic program than their baseball team that’s normally in the thick of it. Try Coach Blewitt.
T-Bone
February 9th, 2011
4:20 pm
Can’t agree more. The problem is that Frank Wren doesn’t have the money to remedy any of this.
We should have signed at least a serviceable left fielder, put Prado at SS, and made A-Gonz the Infante of last year. We just ahve to hope that McClouth rebounds. He does have some speed.
Matty D
February 9th, 2011
4:21 pm
This had better be followed up by 5 Reasons The Braves Will Kick A$$ Next Year
Steve
February 9th, 2011
4:21 pm
Mark, tomorrow are you going to the 5 reasons to be EXCITED about the Braves?
Larry Jones
February 9th, 2011
4:25 pm
Mark, You have made a career out of being a wet blanket! I wish you would move to Cleveland and stop writing for the AJC.
Sweet Old Buck
February 9th, 2011
4:25 pm
You missed one. Chipper!
ATL Fan
February 9th, 2011
4:34 pm
For the more daring…McClouth’s batting average for Sept & Oct was .273. That’s respectable. He can still run and play defense. Is it possible that he will hit for around .270? That would be huge improvement from last year.
DogTheMan
February 9th, 2011
4:40 pm
<<======= is expectng a LONG SEASON!!!!!
the Owl of Prophecy
February 9th, 2011
4:44 pm
You can’t spell MclOUTh without OUT.
mswerli
February 9th, 2011
4:44 pm
Speed is really overrated. Unless you can steal at 75+% rate ti deosn’t add anything to an offense. Additionally, whatever you lose with uggla defensively, he will more than make up for it at the plate (compare LF offensive production with what we can expect to get out of Uggla, huge upgrade). Chipper isn’t going to win any awards and at this point might be overpaid, but if he can give a .255-.260 avg .370opb line with 10-15hrs we will be fine (a little reduced of what he did last year. If you want to worry about things, worry about alex gonzolez and his atrocious sub .300 opb. McClouth will either turn it around or wren will make a deal 40-50 games in. This team won’t win any beauty pageants, but it will win ball games.
bruce mac
February 9th, 2011
4:51 pm
You bunch of parrots, money is not the problem. So,our Center Fielder makes $7 Million and that is Liberty Media’s fault some how. DUH!!!! Payroll matches attendance and why would it be more?
Arod's Overpaid
February 9th, 2011
4:53 pm
Excellent post Mark ! Finally somebody that calls a spade a spade instead of someone that rides Harley’s with the Braves manager and only states the positives !
You could say # 6 is Braves rotation performance after Hudson & Hanson.
Lowe,Jurrgens,and Minor are all question marks about performane.
I love Debbie Downer
February 9th, 2011
4:53 pm
Thank you Mark.
We felt cold and deathly while reading this.. Numbly blissful.
Signed,
The Smiths and The Cure
bruce mac
February 9th, 2011
4:55 pm
Oh yea, also in the paper today, Frank is trying to get $1Million from the Japanese to take back our starting pitcher he is paying $8 Million to this year. I assume this is Liberty Media’s fault also.
Arod's Overpaid
February 9th, 2011
4:56 pm
There’s six reasons the Braves won’t win the division :
1)Roy Halladay
2)Cliff Lee
3)Cole Hamels
4)Roy Oswalt
5)Ryan Howard
6)Chase Utley
Debbie Downer for Prez
February 9th, 2011
4:57 pm
Please refrain from steering off the talking points. I find facts and perspectives that are contrary to mass-propagandized public opinion and Hallmark-card philosophified rhetoric quite confusing.
Signed,
Sarah Palin and Fox News
Matty Thrice
February 9th, 2011
5:00 pm
hey if youre not worried about 1 title in 20 years, why would you be worried about this?
Who's that girl?
February 9th, 2011
5:07 pm
Mark,
Please do not steal my job…
even if you are only presenting a “Devil’s advocate” perspective to the 100s(10,000,000s) of Braves fanatics who long for JD Drew, A Boone, Rocker, Shef, and the list of other ruffian likeable Braves’ renegades who came in as heroes and stunk it up while here… especially during the playoffs.
Nostalgia makes a strange bedfellow with reality.
Signed,
Debbie Downer
KEV
February 9th, 2011
5:08 pm
@Valtool…the Phillies are very left-handed now. They are also aging. Their bullpen is trash. Oswalt has terrible career numbers against the NL East (especially the Braves) and Hamels is overrated.
The Choperator
February 9th, 2011
5:12 pm
Mark, you’re a good writer, but do you really believe what you’re saying here? I have a feeling you pieced this together so you can come out with tomorrow’s “5 reasons to be excited about your 2011 Atlanta Braves.”
This sentence sounds like something one of your commenters would write:
“It was noteworthy that Rick Ankiel was the Braves’ starting center fielder in the Division Series even though McLouth was on the active roster. The Braves thought so little of Ankiel they let him leave after the season, and now they plan to run McLouth out there again. Maybe this makes sense to you. It doesn’t to me.”
You pose this as if they had a choice of who to bring back. Fact is, we owe Nate McLouth money for the upcoming season. We can’t just pick Ankiel because we liked him more in October. Is McLouth a potential weakness? Yes. But please back up your arguments better than this.
KEV
February 9th, 2011
5:13 pm
People said the EXACT same thing about the Phillies last October and look at what happened. Their starting rotation means NOTHING. Look at how many titles Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz won. ONE!
KEV
February 9th, 2011
5:16 pm
And people act as if we have no pitching. Our bullpen is far better than Philly’s, our rotation has been very good the last two years (a healthy Jurrjens this year will help) and we have plenty of depth with Minor/Beachy/Teheran battling it out for the 5th spot, not to mention Medlen coming back in August. And we won’t have to put up with Kawakami starting 1-10 this year. Just imagine if he had gone 7-6 in those starts. We would have equaled the Phillies win total. And we would have surpassed it if any of those wins came head to head.
Skeezix
February 9th, 2011
5:19 pm
Mark: You are correct about McOut and the lack of speed. I was hoping that FW would fix the CF problem. Kimbrel will be allright–he is young, still developing/improving and has the talent. I share your concern about the defense. However, I believe our assets far outweigh our liabilities and I don’t think that the Phillies/Nats/Marlins/Mets are close to perfect either. I think our rotation will be even better than last year and keep in mind that Heyward and Freeman are just starting to show their offensive potential. So your article doesn’t scare me, I am still picking the Braves to win the NL East. I am mostly glad that I won’t have to watch Uggla tear apart Braves pitching anymore.
KEV
February 9th, 2011
5:25 pm
Over the course of a 162 game season that Phillies rotation will likely win more games than anyone in baseball. But ANYTHING can happen in a 5 or 7 game series.
Paul Hewitt
February 9th, 2011
5:28 pm
To all Braves fans: There go the ajc sportswriters again! Now that all these negative things about the Braves have been written, they don’t have a chance to win. After the Braves start losing, you fans will want Fredi fired just like you want me fired. When the ajc starts writing only positive things about teams and especially us coaches–then and only then will your local sports teams start winning.
kgb
February 9th, 2011
5:31 pm
1. defense is not nearly as bad as you are trying to make out – even throwing McCann and Heyward under the bus to try to bolster your point – you lose credibility points there.
2. Nate should be a serviceable CF. Shouldn’t dismiss his previous work because of a bad season.
3. Kim is on the upside but you’re right you never know with closers.
4. Nate can be a solid base stealer as he has shown in the past – I think Freddie will add more situational steals in the mix.
5. Magic – even the best teams need a little luck
Overall team power should increase significantly providing quite a boost also.
5150 UOAD
February 9th, 2011
5:35 pm
The Speed is the issue as I see it too. We haven’t had Speed in many years. Getting on and hopeing for the HR just will not cut it. I like Big Mac, but you are right that he is just OK. He doesn’t have the arm to scare the good base runners so the picture will have to work to keep them close to the bag.
Mark what do we have in the Minors that can be ready to add to the team fast? I don’t want to make a bunch of trades. I want to bring players up from the farm system.
rainman
February 9th, 2011
5:40 pm
Bottom line is that if we had a top centerfielder that could lead-off, steal some bases, have a high OBP, and play great defense — we could possibly be a contenter.
AlanFalcon
February 9th, 2011
5:40 pm
Mark maybe its your time to put up the pen and understand this is the time of the year for fans to get excited to see what the team has, YOUR ARTICLE IS A COMPLETE DOWNER AND IF YOU CAN’T AT LEAST GIVE THE TEAM AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE WHAT THEY CAN DO (Well just go away and don’t come back for we the Braves fans don’t need your kind) GOOD BY,SO LONG AND JUST GET THE HE&% GONE).
MaxxBrave
February 9th, 2011
5:44 pm
Alex Gonzalez was NOT a MAJOR Defensive disappointment, what are you talking about? I saw him making play after play on Defense and at the plate
phil
February 9th, 2011
5:51 pm
I’m as big a braves fan as most of ya but Bradley isn’t off base here to talk about this stuff. McClouth DOES stink, until he shows us otherwise. Uggla CAN’T field a basketball and that’s a big problem at second. Gonzalez is ok in the field but ok isn’t good enough and besides, there’s just something about the guy that makes you wonder when he’s going to snap and punch a wall. Chipper WILL be 39 soon. I love the guy and am thrilled he’ll be back, but 39, bum knee, lots of injuries over lots of recent years and third base can make for a terrible combination. Heyward is clearly not going to be what they were all saying last spring. He just isn’t. That’s the reality. The guy at first has done nothing yet. Zero. Zip. We’ll see about him. Diaz is gone? I missed that and it’s a MISTAKE. Yet Conrad is back after the joke he made of trying to field the simplest of grounders? Not smart. Jurgens has forgotten how to pitch, Hudson and lowe are getting old, the kid in the pen can’t throw a strike.
If anything, Bradley was being nice!
Michael, The Abbreviation
February 9th, 2011
5:52 pm
Debbie Downer Mark Bradley strikes again, the same person who thought signing Uggla was a bad move, hahaha (I know people, no one takes this guy serious) but for what its worth, Uggla’s defense is still way better than Brooks Conrad. Kimbrel/Venters at closer will be fine, too much is made there in this article. McClouth has the potential to bounce back, so lets just wait and see on that one. Your only correct point is speed but it seems like we will never have that kinda ball club so it is what it is. All in all, its not like anyone is gonna beat the Phillies for the division and as is, I think we can win a wildcard spot as long as Jurrjens bounces back.. Go Braves
AllIKnowisWhatIKnow
February 9th, 2011
5:57 pm
Please, please, run to the bar and get a shot of …positive. Pessimism isn’t an art, it’s a bailout from optimism…makes no sense to mke. Not sure how you’re position is going to help and it doesn’t jive with the improvements the Braves have made and the return of Prado.
Life is indeed a garden. Dig it.
Dawgdad (The Original)
February 9th, 2011
6:04 pm
Mark
Good column, inspite of all these deniers who want to hide the problems under their optimistic rug. Add one big one, if Nate plays CF, our defense has a giant hole as he has no arm.
mike
February 9th, 2011
6:19 pm
braves will there in the end mark , good try on being a phillies fan,,,
ArkyTech
February 9th, 2011
6:32 pm
I was with you until the last sentence. There are many question marks and weaknesses on this team. But 91 wins the ceiling? That’s crazy talk. Simply staying relatively healthy makes this team much better than last. If they have the SAME injuries this season as last it may be tough to get to 91. Flawed argument.
bigdawg
February 9th, 2011
6:41 pm
Great job, Mark! Your job is to be controversial and stir the pot. Looks as if you pulled out the REALLY BIG spoon this time. Hahahahahahaha!
BTW, Heard the Phillies are calling their starting pitchers “The Immaculate Rotation!”
Mike10
February 9th, 2011
6:43 pm
Enter your comments here
Larry
February 9th, 2011
6:49 pm
I knew Freddie was a clone of Cox’s so hopefully he won’t continue our dreadful streak in the playoffs of always watching another team celebrate on the pitcher’s mound. But, looking at his waistline, will he also be competing with Cox for the most obese ML manager too?
We should have gone with a fresh, new perspective!
Rupert
February 9th, 2011
6:51 pm
I love people that act like 30+ homers and 90+ rbi’s is nothing to add to the lineup. Uggla would have easily been the team’s most productive hitter last year and he hits well at the Ted. His defense is suspect to a point, but he’s not Chuck Knoblauch out there Bradley. He turns the double play very well. Your other points are vallid, but somehwat sketchy. Kimbrell had control problems in is career, but that was mostly in is early call ups. Check the game by game breakdown and he settled in nicely. McLouth is a huge question mark, but there is nothing they can do about it because of the contract, short of benching him. The lack of speed hurts, but Heyward runs well (can’t believe you questioned his defense, dude watch some games) McLouth runs well, and Uggla, Jones, Gonzo, Prado may not steal bases, but are good base runners. So you make good points at times, but again, you go over the top to initiate a response. 91 wins the max? Right. Same team as last year with a 30 HR hitter. Pitching is stacked, even with a young closer. Glad you feel that way though.
J-Man
February 9th, 2011
6:51 pm
So the last time you put an “8 reasons the Braves won’t lose this lead” and you completely jinxed them, So this time you have “5 reasons to be concerned about your 2011 Atlanta Braves” and therefore if the rule of opposite is in effect you just got them a championship…………At least thats what I hope you were going for there.
Mike10
February 9th, 2011
6:56 pm
I have said this all off season the Braves simply haven’t did enough,adding Uggla will not win this division and I know deep down that Wren knows it and he failed to improve the team in other areas.
Losing infante is going to hurt because everyone knows #10 it’s just a matter of time.History repeats itself.I don’t see anything that tells me this team is significantly better than last years team.
b4bama
February 9th, 2011
7:05 pm
Kimbrel may have walked batters but none of them scored against him.
aBraveVol
February 9th, 2011
7:09 pm
dont know how you could say this team will be worse on paper than the team last year. better starting lineup, better rotation (considering jj bounces back to form). while defense might be suspect, probably not much worse than last year. prado cant be much worse than diaz in left and uggla is not much worse than prado overall on defense. makes no sense and you have no basis to your irrational blogs