Will Super Bowl XLV be the last NFL game we ever see?
OK, so the headline is a bit of hyperbole. (Me? Hyperbolic? Say it ain’t so!) But Steelers-Packers looks more and more like the last NFL game before the owners lock out their players, and there’s a chance a lockout could last a while.
My default position has been that the NFL is too smart to fall into a long-term work stoppage. (Yes, I was around in 1982, when half the season was lost to a players’ strike, and again in 1987, when the workers again walked out and three regrettable games using replacements were staged.) Baseball has since lost a World Series and the NBA half a season and the NHL a whole season, and pro football has sailed blissfully onward. But the bliss is about to end.
I’m not sure this NFL commissioner and these owners are as smart as those we’d come to know. History lesson: The NFL got huge because Pete Rozelle convinced his owners they were partners first and competitors second and that any TV contracts must be league contracts. (This as opposed to baseball, where each franchise works out its local TV deal for itself, which is why the Yankees mint money and the Pirates haven’t had a winning season since Sid Bream slid.)
Rozelle was the smartest commissioner in the history of sports — apologies to David Stern — and was succeeded by Paul Tagliabue, himself no dummy. But Roger Goodell is the new sheriff, and he seems markedly less clever.
In an excellent Lockout Primer, Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk suggests the NFL suffers from a lack of gravitas, which is another way of saying: Too many owners want to be like Jerry Jones. The owners of yore, schooled and herded by Rozelle, knew that to miss games was bad for business. It was the players who went on strike in 1982 and again in 1987, and both times they came back to work without having gained what they wanted. The players were simply losing too much money not playing. It will take a while before these owners lose enough money to hurt.
These owners want, shock of shocks, to share less revenue. (Building your own stadium is hard, Jerry Jones wants us to know.) And the owners do have leverage: They’re rich already; they don’t have to depend on weekly checks the way players do. When regular-season games start being lost, it’s going to hurt the players more than the owners. And the side suffering more is the side apt to surrender.
To answer a question often raised: There will be a draft even if there’s a lockout. But, as Peter King of SI.com has noted, there might not be any free agency if this lockout lasts into September. And right now, I’d guess it will last at least that long. Because I have no faith in Goodell to control his owners.
Goodell just announced he would cut his salary from $10 million to $1 if there’s a work stoppage. It’s another in a series of Grand Goodell Gestures, but this commissioner is better at gesturing than he is at commissioning. And really, wouldn’t the better course be to say, “If I can stave off a lockout, my salary gets doubled”?
For the first time, the players seem to be hitting the right notes. (Antonio Cromartie’s rant notwithstanding.) They’re positioning themselves as victims, not instigators. The NFL Players Association has even launched a Web site — NFLLockout.com — to take its case to the people. And that’s another key difference: If the players are convinced they’ve been wronged, they might actually stick together this time.
A guess: This Super Bowl won’t be the last pro football game we ever see, but it will be the last we see until October.
By Mark Bradley
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158 comments Add your comment
Curious George
January 27th, 2011
2:05 pm
If no new NFL games will ever be played after this year’s Super Bowl, will NFL Network change its name to “NFL Classic” going forward?
Curious George
January 27th, 2011
2:06 pm
If NFL Owners stop paying their players all that money, will Rev. Jackson lead a protest march and mug for the cameras?
Mark Bradley
January 27th, 2011
2:11 pm
Good question about the NFL Network, Curious. Now I’m curious, too.
JSS
January 27th, 2011
2:16 pm
People just want to paint the players as evil and greedy; but this and the upcoming NBA lockout are direct result of pure owner greed. They have a golden goose and they are going to cook it… I just hate that D-1 football and basketball are going to be the direct beneficiary of the fallout…
Smiling Jack
January 27th, 2011
2:19 pm
Shame, shame, shame on you Mark Bradly, Jr. for making such fun of dear old dad!
JSS
January 27th, 2011
2:21 pm
@ Mark Bradley…
The NFL Network will go into their vast vaults for programming. They can also go the “OJ Route” and use panels and experts to keep die-hards engaged daily. They also actually pitched some original programming at the Critics previews last month…
VolGuy
January 27th, 2011
2:23 pm
Who cares. It’s millionaires versus billionaires, and neither group cares about the fans. I’ll watch college football. I know it’s corrupt too but I can pretend.
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 27th, 2011
2:24 pm
I’ve seen Mark Bradley Jr! I Know Mark Bradley Jr! Mark Bradley Jr is my Friend, nad you sir are no Mark Bradley Jr.
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 27th, 2011
2:27 pm
Mike Vick a Hall of Fame QB? Man I scan’t stop laughing at that one. Vick hasn’t played enough to even guess what his future will bring. If there is a LOCKOUT that will be more time off his career. Mike Vick is exciting and can sell some tickests, but HoF amterial is really a LONG LONG streach.
tom
January 27th, 2011
2:28 pm
your must be desperate for material to write such a stupid article!
Jim Ragan
January 27th, 2011
2:31 pm
Looks like we will have the likes of Shane Falco (The Replacements) for next year’s season.
Ted Striker
January 27th, 2011
2:33 pm
If the NFL owners want to really learn how to be greedy, they just need to take notes from the NCAA, the BCS, and (many) University Presidents.
I hope AJ is selling jerseys like a madman.
collegeballfan
January 27th, 2011
2:40 pm
“Will Super Bowl XLV be the last NFL game we ever see?”
If so, would not bother me in the least.
And it would make college ball that much better as college players would not be leaving early, unless they just flunk out.
The more I think about it, the better a “no-NFL” world sounds.
thank you baby boomers
January 27th, 2011
2:44 pm
well, folks. yet another mess that we can attribute to that greatest of all generations (if you ask them) the baby boomers.
pete rozelle was great because he saw the need of people to work together to achieve a greater good…a common theme amongst folks of his generation. but now, in this world of narcisstic, facebooking, sack dancing youtubing selfishness, all anyone can think about is ME.
players want more money – owners want more money and yet people in this country are without jobs and struggling to make ends meet.
i for one am just going to laugh at this whole thing. a bunch of millionaires arguing over who gets the bigger slice of pie.
great timing folks. just keep staring at your belly buttons….cause guess what….when the season ticket renewals roll around and you aint playing….its gonna be even easier for joe six pack to cut yall from his payroll….and that’s who really pays the bills.
as usual, though…the baby boomers…spend more than they’ve got to try to be the biggest and bestus and then want to blame everyone else when it is bill paying time.
james
January 27th, 2011
2:59 pm
So let’s suppose the 2011 season begins October 2 and one of changes from the new CBA is an 18 game schedule effective immediately. And let’s suppose further that it is agreed that none of the September games will be cancelled, but postponed to October instead. Then, we will be looking at a March 2012 Superbowl date in New York with the NCAA Tourney starting the following week!?! Love it! Bring it on! Ha-ha!
JL
January 27th, 2011
3:06 pm
Oh, poor players who have to live week to week for their paycheck. How can they survive on the millions of dollars they made this year and in years past without making even more millions? I don’t feel bad for them if they can’t manage any sort of financial responsibility.
james
January 27th, 2011
3:07 pm
As a Gen Xer and someone who came of age in the 80’s – I agree with you wholeheartedly! The boomers are nothing but bed wetting, coolaide drinking, entitlement-seeking, still-yearning-for-Woodstocking, weed-smoking, soccer-worshiping narcissists! Where are my Izod shirts and leg warmers?
jerry
January 27th, 2011
3:09 pm
I thought the possibility of a lockout had something to do with an 18 game schedule. Did I miss that in your article?
Nate the Great
January 27th, 2011
3:12 pm
Mark,
You still are a raging idiot. I will no longer read your faux articles that are wrought with terrible ideas/rumors that you make up behind your computer. If you want to keep writing crap, please just do it for another publication, like the Taiwan Times, so I don’t have to even read your terrible headlines.
Matt
January 27th, 2011
3:12 pm
CurlyHOward- Keith Brooking made the pro bowl 5 times. If he had 40 tackles in one game his jersey for that game will go into the HOF but Brooking himself will not be enshrined there.
Memorabilia from each of the 20 perfect games in MLB are in the HOF that doesn’t mean those players are or will be enshrined there.
As of now Vick is not a HOF player. He’s a great player. He’s 30, do you see him playing until he’s 40? I would guess he has 5 more years. 21 TD for a QB in 2010 is not very impressive. He’s going to have to do better than that.
dawgfacedboy
January 27th, 2011
3:19 pm
Joe MOntana, Steve Young, Warren Moon, Tom Brady, Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, Troy Aikman, Dan Marino, Mike Vick…U kiddin me?!?!? Please. There’s plenty of solid and exciting players, doesn’t mean they are going to make the Hall.
Steve From Dalton
January 27th, 2011
3:20 pm
Millionaires vs. Billionaires- How are we to feel sorry for either one? O yea, Falcons need CB, WR2, and Pass Rusher.
Patricio
January 27th, 2011
3:21 pm
I would be okay with the NFL going out of business, just as long as the Obama-lusting ESPN goes out of business with it.
The MLB Network gives me all the sports coverage I need, minus the left-wing, politically correct agenda.
joe
January 27th, 2011
3:26 pm
Can that lock out extend to the UGA coaching staff too?
The Fallen
January 27th, 2011
3:28 pm
No work stoppage, no games missed, no training camp missed. Symbolic lock out March to May, then back to normal. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY is that stupid to kill this golden goose. If, however, they prove me wrong and they are that stupid, I hope another USFL rushes in to fill the void and capture that Sunday afternoon, male dominated, 18-50 year old demomgraphic. Any corporate sponsor that supports a competing league during a work stoppage will get a consumer for life in me.
Gen Neyland
January 27th, 2011
3:30 pm
Maybe Obama can get the player reps and a few owners to the White House for a beer…
Super Bowl 2011: Labor Stoppage Looms Over Super Bowl XLV | Football Betting
January 27th, 2011
3:31 pm
[...] it’s that time and the questions will start. Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution had a very interesting blog post on the subject where he predicts we won’t see the league unti…. I won’t go that far because negotiations are always so tough to predict. But I’ve seen [...]
Cecil34
January 27th, 2011
3:34 pm
First of all, I would have to agree with you that Goodell is not the sharpest tool in the shed – anyone who would seriously consider increasing the NFL regular season to 18 games ought to be fired – but his naivete in understanding the players leave much to be desired.
He actually went to many of the teams in pre-season and caught an earful from the players about the NFL and owners position.
And the one sentiment that came out from the players was that Goodell was not knowledgeable of their situation and did not have a good grasp of the many issues at hand.
In other words, another unqualified figure-head in charge, who has no concept of the nuances of pro football and the history of pro foootball.
The fact is that the 18 game proposal is a blatant money-grab by the owners because fans no longer want to pay full price for pre-season games.
Fact of the matter is, (especially in this age of how to effectively deal with, prevent and treat concussions) teams can’t keep players on the field at 100% for 16 games, much less 18.
And now you have a Super Bowl being played on FEBURARY 6th? Good God, the season ought to have been over with two weeks earlier.
Actually, 14 games in the regular season is plenty. PLENTY! Especially now that the NFL has multiple wild-cards.
Goodell is nothing but a tool, an owner’s grocery clerk trying to collect the player’s bill. An unqualified stooge with no credibility.
Now, young folks won’t agree with this sentiment, but anyone over 40 knows that this style of football played in the NFL now is for entertainment purposes first, and football second.
This is in no way, due to the many rules changes to make the NFL a passing league, the same type of football played in the 60’s and 70’s.
I would argue that football was better, but that is a generational issue.
Bottom line, I would rather watch college ball, and that is in no small way attributed to the lack of leadership and vision of both Tagliabue and Goodell and what they have done to the NFL.
reebok
January 27th, 2011
3:36 pm
i wouldn’t miss the NFL for a minute. i haven’t been to a Falcons game in years, but I make it to several Tech (and this year, Georgia State games) each season. College ball is far more fun to watch and attend.
who cares
January 27th, 2011
3:38 pm
Both sides are greedy and stand to loose a lot of money.Someone will come to their senses. They are not stupid!.
Gen Neyland
January 27th, 2011
3:51 pm
thank you baby boomers : Wishing you a speedy recovery from your last concussion…
JRS
January 27th, 2011
4:01 pm
Greed and selfishness will be the downfall of this country…and the world. The owners are being both greedy AND selfish.
Hillbilly Deluxe
January 27th, 2011
4:03 pm
If the owners lose so much money, why do people fall all over themselves to buy teams?
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 27th, 2011
4:16 pm
This situation remindes me of the Problems with The Sea Island Company. The company spit too much money trying to attract the SUPER RICH and the RICH were shunned and felt leftout. It kill the Cloister and the Company. The owners have made players too Rich and the average fan is getting abused. The NFL owners and Players are going to wound the cash cow if they are not careful. More average people would rather sit home and watch a few games every Sunday on TV, than spend the crazy money to take their family to a game. Thursday Night NFL games are STUPID and DANGEROUS unless both teams are coming off the bye week.
JRS
You are wrong Overpopulation is what will be the downfall of this world. We don’t have the food, water, or economies(naturla resources) to support the people now inhabiting the planet.
timbo
January 27th, 2011
4:28 pm
To me, the last football game of the season is in January with the BCS Championship game. Then it is a few weeks until pitchers/catchers report. I could care less what the NFL does. They lost me in 1987, and I still ain’t back yet (if Kenny Chesney is reading this, sorry about borrowing that line).
hbcuclassics
January 27th, 2011
4:34 pm
1. Raymond Webber 6′2, 218 WR Ark-PB
AP/FCS All-American, Walter Payton Award Finalist
led NCAA 101 rec. 1,429yds 10TDs 129.9ypg.
only receiver w/ more receptions is Jerry Rice.
Coach: Monte Coleman
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozTgHYtsMN8&feature=related
Keith Strawn
January 27th, 2011
4:35 pm
Special thanks to Dontavius Supremo for sparing us the “first!!” idiocy.
No
January 27th, 2011
4:46 pm
I couldn’t care less. I stopped caring about major league professional sports years ago. The players are just overpaid bozos.
So… who gives a damn.
beebee
January 27th, 2011
4:54 pm
some of my best sundays are when I get out and exercise for hours, running under the sun, while the falcons are on tv and I’m glad I’m not sitting in a chair eating away. THEN, I clean up go back outside and enjoy the day.
People, make a commitment to you own health! Go outside, relax or play, and take the kids/family you who have them. Go cold turkey on the NFL. Does this seem like too big a “sacrifice”?
YOU and YOUR well-being are much more important than devoting YOUR time to people who have made more money than you ever will see. Live YOUR lives, people. Do no revolve and rotate, like a moon, all around other people’s lives – in this case, rich athletes.
Especially you people with health concerns – diabetes, high blood pressure, weight issues, etc.
LIVE YOUR LIFE – not in front of that tv. DISCOVER YOUR other world!
Thanks for listening!
b
hbcuclassics
January 27th, 2011
4:54 pm
HBCU Classics in the League:
1. Nick Collins S Bethune – Pro Bowl
2. Robert Mathis DE Ala AM – Pro Bowl
3. Erik Weems WR Bethune – Pro Bowl
4. Antoine Bethea S Howard
5. Jacoby Jones WR Lane
6. Donald Driver WR Alcorn
7. Rashean Mathis WR Bethune
8. Visanthe Shiancoe TE Morgan St.
9. Travaris Jackson QB Ala St.
10. Dom. Ro. Cromartie CB TN St.
Hall of Fame: Walter Payton, Jerry Rice, Doug Williams, Mean Joe Green, John Stallworth, Harry Carson, Night Train Lane, Willie Lanier, Deacon Jones, Mel Blount, John Taylor, etc.
Andy
January 27th, 2011
4:58 pm
Mark
If you are that desperate for page views why don’t you just name your next post “Mark Bradley Accused of Murder!”. The story would be about your lack of accuracy on your picks.
5150 P.O.A.D.
January 27th, 2011
5:11 pm
I can’t shed a tear for a player like Stafford. He was #1 & the highest ever paid. Since signing he has played in 13 games out of 32. Rookie Players should get 3yr. Contracts and a Minimum pay scale per Draft Round. All NFL teams should have a real salary cap that is Simple and Straight foward. Maybe each team has to donate a min. of 15% of profit to Players Union.
CurlyHoward
January 27th, 2011
5:18 pm
Mark Bradley: to answer your question of your article, no I dont think superbowl XLV will be the last superbowl, but the matchup is one of this years “most compelling” with the Packers pitted against the Steelers. Story lines are, should the Steelers win, Big Ben attempting to join Troy Aikman, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana and Tom Brady as 3-time superbowl winning quarterbacks; and the story line for the packers is that should the Packers win we will realize now that BRETT FARVE SHOULD HAVE BEEN TURNED AWAY IN GREEN BAY after waffling back and forth from being in and out of retirment. Brett should not have continued to play in Green Bay because Aaron Rodgers will have proven with a superbowl victory to be a worthy and superlative SUCCESSOR TO THE GREAT BRETT FARVE. This matchup appears to be one of the best superbowls in recent years. I think it will go into overtime, but I think the Packers will prevail. If there is a lockout at least we will have gotten in this great superbowl in before a potential lockout becomes a reality.
kral
January 27th, 2011
5:23 pm
No markie, I would not apologize for that headline to my story, reminds me of all those mag.. HL I see as I check-out at the grocery store….
JASon
January 27th, 2011
5:33 pm
“These owners want, shock of shocks, to share less revenue.”
Mark, we all know the reason for the disagreement. It would be nice to see you give an opinion on the matter. Why is it ok for the owners to get more money, considering no one forced them to build a new stadium…considering no one forced them to start the nfl network. The nfl was never meant to be a profitable venture for owners- that is why the packers do not have one. You will notice that the packers never built a new stadium. How are they doing, by the way?
Dooner
January 27th, 2011
5:36 pm
What do you suggest? Become like baseball? Their salaries are a joke, which is the main reason behind high ticket prices. Baseball at one time was cheap.
Mark Bradley
January 27th, 2011
5:37 pm
Never in a million years would I suggest any sport become like baseball. Never, I say.
Najeh Davenpoop
January 27th, 2011
6:02 pm
Roger Goodell is a damn idiot. There is exactly one thing wrong with the current system, and that is the lack of a rookie pay scale. Everything else — the 16 game schedule, the percentage of revenues received by the players, player salaries in general, etc. — is working just fine for both sides. In fact if anything the current system overly favors the owners by allowing them to cut players and assume little to no long term responsibility for negotiating a bad contract with a player. The NFL is not the NBA where there are several franchises that are legitimately struggling to make money. Everyone in the NFL is getting paid and the owners are getting billions of dollars from the TV networks whether or not games are actually played. It is absolutely ridiculous for the owners to initiate a lockout in this situation, when attendance and TV ratings are at an all time high, and the only thing more ridiculous is that there are actually people blaming the players in this scenario.
Najeh Davenpoop
January 27th, 2011
6:09 pm
“The fact of the matter is, the CBA Tags forced on the owners was a bad deal. In no other league do the players get that much revenue.”
What in the world are you talking about? You do realize that the owners are getting over $2 billion from the TV networks whether or not games are played, right?
The NFL CBA is more owner-friendly than any other pro sport’s CBA. No other league allows owners to cut players and be off the hook for the remainder of their salary. Every other league has franchises that are legitimately struggling to make money; the NFL doesn’t, because profits are soaring, revenue sharing ensures that all the owners get paid, and teams can hand out bad contracts like candy knowing that they can cut a player with no repercussions if he doesn’t work out.
The only thing wrong with the current system is that there is no rookie salary scale. All they have to do is institute a rookie salary scale, leave the rest alone, and everyone will be fine. It is quite simply a greedy power grab by the owners to basically try to get two free games out of the players, and Roger Goodell is a damn idiot for allowing this to happen on his watch.
Najeh Davenpoop
January 27th, 2011
6:11 pm
And I agree with Andy at 4:58. The headline is ridiculous and everyone knows it. No way either side is dumb enough to allow this lockout to last into next season, considering that attendance and TV ratings are at an all time high.