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Mark Bradley

Am I the only one who’s surprised Green Bay is favored?

3:02 pm January 25, 2011, by Mark Bradley

The AFC champ has won nine of the past 13 Super Bowls. Pittsburgh was the No. 2 seed in the AFC, going 12-4. Pittsburgh has won two of the past five Super Bowls, and now, facing a wild-card qualifier that won two fewer games this season, Pittsburgh is …

A 2 1/2-point underdog.

Not much surprises me anymore, but this did. Not that I don’t think the Packers are good — Arthur Blank and I witnessed firsthand just how good they can be — but because I think the Steelers are powerful and proven and a Brand Name to boot, and that’s the type of team that tends to be given the benefit of most doubts. (Not that I have doubts about the Steelers. Saw them beat the Falcons, too — without their starting quarterback.)

I know Green Bay is the flavor of the month. I know it has beaten the Nos. 3, 1 and 2 seeds in the NFC en route to Super Bowl XLV. But still: Favored over Pittsburgh?

I also know that there’s precedent for a No. 6 seed being favored in the Super Bowl: The Steelers were against Seattle, which was the NFC’s top seed, six years ago. And I know, too, that a betting line isn’t so much a prediction on the game as it is an estimate of how the public will wager. (The perfect line is one that never moves, meaning that an equal amount is bet on both teams.) I know all of that stuff. And still I don’t get this one.

Who should be favored?

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Maybe I’m just being obtuse. It wouldn’t be the first time. I was surprised the Packers wound up only a 1-point underdog against the Falcons, who were playing at home and who were 13-3 and who’d already beaten Green Bay.  (I was less surprised the Packers were favored over the Bears.)

Obviously some folks with money know what they’re doing. And I could see Green Bay being favored over the Jets. But it’s not playing the Jets. It’s playing the Steelers, and the Steelers are really good.

That said … the Super Bowl line can be tricky. The Broncos, who were 10-4-1, were favored over the Redskins, who were 11-4, back in January 1988. (Washington won 42-10.) The Raiders, who were 11-5, were favored over the Buccaneers, who were 12-4, in 2003. (Tampa Bay won 48-21.) Heck, the team widely regarded as the NFL’s greatest ever — the unbeaten Dolphins of 1972 — was only a 1-point favorite over the 11-3 Redskins in Super Bowl VII.

That said … I still don’t get this one. Maybe you do. If so, I’d appreciate it if you could explain to me.

By Mark Bradley

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139 comments Add your comment

Pete

January 25th, 2011
3:05 pm

first

Mark Bradley

January 25th, 2011
3:07 pm

Kudos, Pete. You’re the choice of this betting line.

toddh

January 25th, 2011
3:12 pm

I think the only reason is b/c it’s indoors. If it were outdoors in cold weather, the Steelers would probably be the faves. Indoors favors GB’s passing game though.

Mark Bradley

January 25th, 2011
3:14 pm

I don’t know, toddh. Green Bay is pretty good outdoors itself.

Mark Bradley

January 25th, 2011
3:16 pm

I just kind of assumed the Steelers would be favored by a field goal. I’m not very good at picking games, but I can usually figure out who’s going to be favored. Usually.

toddh

January 25th, 2011
3:16 pm

True, but that wasn’t the question. Wouldn’t you say it being indoors favors the Packers more?

Willy

January 25th, 2011
3:21 pm

If you HAD to put 1000 dollars on the game – no spread – who would you put it on? You might not feel great about it, but you’d probably put it on the Pack. That’s why.

Sports Review

January 25th, 2011
3:23 pm

[...] Am I the only one who's surprised Green Bay is favored?Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog)The AFC champ has won nine of the past 13 Super Bowls. Pittsburgh was the No. 2 seed in the AFC, going 12-4. Pittsburgh has won two of the past five Super …Steelers withstand Jets' charge in AFC tFOXSports.com [...]

Paul H

January 25th, 2011
3:26 pm

I am definitely surprised

Thank god football is here

January 25th, 2011
3:30 pm

Defense is going to win this game, and I would take great defense over a great qb any day of the week. Big Ben isn’t the best, but he’s proven he’s good enough to get it done. I just don’t see GB winning 4 huge games in a row. Rodgers is very mortal, as he has shown in the past.

El Bravo

January 25th, 2011
3:33 pm

If I had $1,000.00 on the game I would put it on the sexually deviant QB with the two rings…

GT-93

January 25th, 2011
3:37 pm

Bradley likes The Steelers.

Which is as good advice as you can get to bet on Green Bay.

I can’t believe anyone would pay money to a betting service.

Green Bay is officially now the lock of the month.

The Real Fan

January 25th, 2011
3:37 pm

Yes you are. Did you actually see their last 5 games?

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January 25th, 2011
3:41 pm

[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Mark Bradley and Roy Harris, franklincalhounwhite. franklincalhounwhite said: RT @MarkBradleyAJC: Am I the only one who's surprised Green Bay is the Super Bowl favorite? http://bit.ly/gFpyRG [...]

Walker, Texas Ranger

January 25th, 2011
3:43 pm

Mark, I agree. Pittsburg has a much better offense than Chicago and a defense that is equal with speed at the LB position. I think Pittsburg by at least 3, I think it will be 7 or more.

And if I hear one more word about Big Ben’s year and all he has had to deal with, I will explode. I hate the Jerk will be mentioned in the same breath as Montana.

joe

January 25th, 2011
3:46 pm

Pitt’s D, especially up the middle, is too tough for the Pack…BTW, the correct spelling is Pittsburgh.

Walker, Texas Ranger

January 25th, 2011
3:49 pm

Sorry Joe, spell check let me down. That’s why I majored in round house kicks to the head instead of english.

GSU Eagle 91

January 25th, 2011
3:51 pm

ToddH has a valid point. With a fast indoor track, and weather not a concern, GB is the faster squad.
I have them nipping the Steelers in a tough, hard-hitting game for the ages..
20-17…
Packers are the champs..

Rickster

January 25th, 2011
3:53 pm

Even though I own one share, I’m surprised a bit myself that the Packers are favored. They’ve been on a roll, lately, but this is basically the same team that lost to Detroit and couldn’t even score a touchdown!!

Rickster

January 25th, 2011
3:54 pm

GSU Eagle, I hope you’re right!

Double Zero Eight

January 25th, 2011
3:59 pm

The Packers are favored because of Aaron Rodgers. Their fans and the
media are sounding as if he is the new version of Bart Starr. The Packers
are in for a surprise. The Steelers will win by 7. You heard it here first.

Jeff

January 25th, 2011
3:59 pm

Does it really matter? It’s a tiny line. Not like they are favored by a touchdown…

GeorgiaBoy

January 25th, 2011
4:00 pm

Sorry.
The Steelers, by at least seven.

GTBob

January 25th, 2011
4:04 pm

I was pretty surprised too Mark. The Packers are playing pretty well but I’m not sure that is going to carry them one more game against a team as strong as the Steelers. Especially when they have a fairly weak running game and Pittsburgh is the best rushing defense in football. Rodgers is going to have to play the game of his life in this one.

Hoss

January 25th, 2011
4:05 pm

Strictly a line of how bettors will bet. Blue collar bettors, your every day casual bettors, outnumber your white collar bettors, the “Professional Bettors”, by more than 1000-1. Now the Packers have a huge following, mainly blue collar types, who are gonna bet between $100-$1000 each on the game, obviously on the Packers.(I know the Steelers have a huge following, just not the betting type) This line on the game is based solely on WHO is betting, NOT on the BETTER team. Actually I’m surprised the line is not higher for the Pack, which tells me the “Professional Bettors” are loading up on Pittsburgh, but because they are so outnumbered, the line is skewed such that it creates an equal amount of betting.(If the line were say -3PITT, well you’d still have your Packer bettors, but then you’d have your “Pros” betting on the Packers too, causing an imbalance, where the House could stand to lose should GB win. It’s all about the “Juice” or the “Vig” for the House) So, if this were a regular season game, the line would be probably be more like Pitt -3 or -6(if at Pitt) because your GB bettors don’t bet regular season. The smart bet is to LOAD up on Pitt!!!!

falconsnut

January 25th, 2011
4:07 pm

Still can’t believe the Falcons aren’t going. You can bet we would not be favored! Now, do you pull for GB so we can say the SB champs beat us or do you hope they get a butt whooping for payback?

ASHCAN.

January 25th, 2011
4:08 pm

@GSU Eagle 91,not so fast.The steelers have two speedy recievers of there own in brown and Wallace(i think thats his name)who can run 4.3 4.4 in the 40. and H.ward is a plus.There younger and less experienced than GB recievers but they can also run and catch.

ACE

January 25th, 2011
4:08 pm

The Steelers lost to Ravens, Saints, Patriots, and Jets. 4 legitimate SB contenders. The Packers lost to the Bears, Skins, Dolphins,Falcons,Lions, and Patriots. 3 sb contenders and 3 non playoff teams. So I’m not sure what Vegas is looking at.

KDAWG

January 25th, 2011
4:09 pm

The Packers are favored simply because they are a *hotter* team. The Giants in baseball this year were not favored early in the season, but once they went on an impressive run and dominated the playoffs with great pitching and hitting, they became a favored team. Look at it this way, 9 times out of 10, the Steelers by a TD, but they way Green Bay is playing, odds-makers are thinking otherwise.

ASHCAN.

January 25th, 2011
4:15 pm

Rodgers will throw throw and throw some more in this game being that i think they will not(GB)be able to run the ball against pitts D.I think pitts FS SS will play a big role in this game.This one is tough to call but ill take the steelers 24-20.

toddh

January 25th, 2011
4:17 pm

Hoss, I think that’s a bit of a stretch. Sure, the line is intended to induce equal betting on both sides, but the house generally doesn’t know any more than the betting public. So, either way you look at it, they’re putting a line on what the outcome of the game will probably be. And I don’t know how you can assume GB fans will bet more. I know way too many Steelers fans myself, and I’m quite sure a few of them like to bet.

ACE

January 25th, 2011
4:19 pm

The last 3 times the Falcons made the playoffs they lost to the eventual NFC championship. So at least they have that going for them

Gbal

January 25th, 2011
4:22 pm

NO – Just your ego – You want to think you are.

teedub

January 25th, 2011
4:26 pm

Most of this argument is based on the Steelers 2 seeding. However, the Steelers probably should have been the wild card. They are more lucky than they are good. Not knocking them, just sayin’. In the regular season, Buffalo drops 2 wide open td passes, either would have won the game. Most people saw the botched ending where the Dolphins actually beat the Steelers, but the Steelers won on a loophole in officiating. “There is no video evidence that Miami recovered the fumble”. Move those 2 games from W to L, and you have at best a wild card team.

ACE

January 25th, 2011
4:29 pm

@teedub-Every season the team that wins the SB has a few games along the way that they could/should have won. That is what seperates the great teams from the good teams.

DARNELL

January 25th, 2011
4:29 pm

THIS IS THE GREATEST TIME TO BE LIVING IN AMERICA IN THE WHOLE HISTORY OF THE WORLD!

USA GOT THE PRESDENT AMERICA EVER HAD!

THE PITSBURGH STEELER GOT THE BEST COACH ANY NFL TEAM EVER HAD!

THE EAGLES GOT THE BEST QB TO EVER TOUCH A FOOTBALL!

THE ONLY REASON ANY BODY WOULD PICK GREEN BAY OVER COACH TOMLYN IN THE SUPER BOWL IS BECAUSE OF BEING HATERS NOT CONGRATULATERS!

Hoss

January 25th, 2011
4:31 pm

toddh: Believe it or not, a lot of research is used to determine the line of a game. Put it like this: If you are in a room of 100 people who are going to bet on the game, and say 60 are Packer fans and 40 are Steeler fans, what line would you put on the game? 1-Pickem? If it is a pickem you are going to have a 60/40 split which is no good. 2-If Pitt is favored, you may end up with an even more lopsided split towards GB as some steeler fans may not think the steelers can over, BUT 3- If GB is favored, well you may have some GB fans think twice about betting on GB, and actually bet on Pitt since they are getting points, creating more of a 50/50 split.

TU87

January 25th, 2011
4:31 pm

Who has the better coach – Pitt IMO. I wouldn’t bet on this game too close to call but it should be great to watch.

Jim

January 25th, 2011
4:31 pm

Just because the Packers are favored, doesn’t mean Vegas thinks they are the better team. All a point spread does is allow for equal betting on both sides. Bettors have been riding Green Bay hard for the last month and this line anticipates the same thing happening.

Jason

January 25th, 2011
4:32 pm

When the betting lines opened Pittsburgh was a 1 point favorite. the betting public is who swung the line to the Packers. The only thing Vegas is concerned about is getting equal action on both teams.

ACE

January 25th, 2011
4:33 pm

@4:29 pm SORRY-That should be could/should have lost, not won

dean

January 25th, 2011
4:34 pm

Have another Schlitz there Darnell.

Tosh.No

January 25th, 2011
4:34 pm

I… I actually agree with you Mark. It is definately a strange day.

No way GB is the favorites though, thats weird.

Hoss

January 25th, 2011
4:35 pm

Thank you Jim. Relay that to todd. :)

ATLBadger

January 25th, 2011
4:35 pm

Keep in mind that the six games the Packers lost were all lost by four points or less. Factoring in the massive amount of injuries and lineup shuffling as a result, it’s not surprising they had some dissapointing games along the way. Other than the late season loss at Detroit (who really wasn’t as bad as their record might indicate), they played darn well since mid October. Heck, they almost won in NE in December with a backup QB. Since they’ve essentially won five playoff games in a row (since they had to win the last two regular season games to get the WC), it’s hard to bet against the hot hand I guess…

ACE

January 25th, 2011
4:35 pm

@Jason-I didn’t see that. The first line I saw was Monday morning and it was already GB-2 1/2

stevie zero

January 25th, 2011
4:37 pm

mark, i think the pack has the hottest qb in the league and a pretty stout d. also physical, fast receivers, and a great young running back. and just dominated the three best teams in the nfc. on the road. the steelers are the steelers. but 2-3 pt fave sounds right to me. id be suprised if it moved more than half point by kickoff

Capologist

January 25th, 2011
4:40 pm

teedub, that could be said about every team in the playoffs, especially the Falcons – so I wouldn’t be so quick to pass judgement.

TheRoss

January 25th, 2011
4:40 pm

It’s very simple actually. More people are betting on the Packers than they are the Steelers, and the line adjusted accordingly.

Charles Queen,Somerset,KY

January 25th, 2011
4:41 pm

I’v always been a Packers fan even though I am originaly from Michigan outside of detroit.It’s time for them to win a super bowl been a long time coming

stevie zero

January 25th, 2011
4:41 pm

jason– i looked at line ten min after end of afc title game and saw gb-2.5 (-120). where did you see pit favored?

Najeh Davenpoop

January 25th, 2011
4:42 pm

Betting lines are not predictions of the game. They are predictions of how people will bet. All this means is that the people setting the lines think they can make the most money with this line, which more or less implies that the general public likes Green Bay in this game.

I’m with you, though. I think this game is a toss up, and if anything Pittsburgh is slightly more likely to win.

coloradobulldog

January 25th, 2011
4:45 pm

Yeah you’d think Steelers would be favorite since they have won Super Bowl in recent years with this QB and pretty much same team. I would not bet against Big Ben, their defense and Troy Polamalu. On another note, can you recall when if ever two 3-4 defenses have been in the Super Bowl? That should be a recruiting ploy for UGA (and BAMA) for the services of players like Ray Drew. Come play the 3-4 because the best teams in NFL do.

Najeh Davenpoop

January 25th, 2011
4:45 pm

I do think the general public underrates Roethlisberger. Whether it’s because of the rape case or because he is more of an improviser and less of a pure pocket guy like Brady or Manning, people don’t rank him in the same place as other QBs with equally impressive resumes. Maybe that is part of the reason the line favors the Packers.

As far as I’m concerned, if the Steelers win this Super Bowl, Ben has to rank right along with Brady based on what he has done in his career.

F-105 Thunderchief

January 25th, 2011
4:46 pm

Apparently, Green Bay has been the hottest team in the history of the NFL since week 13, or so. And, Aaron Rodgers walks on water.

Yeah, I think the Steelers should be favored.

The Grinch

January 25th, 2011
4:48 pm

I don’t often agree with you, Mark, but I have to here. No way GB runs on Pittsburgh; Rogers will have to have the game of is life again. How many of those can he have in a row, especially after two concussions? He looked pretty shaky in the second half in Chicago and Pitt will get to him more. Big Ben is at his best when it counts. I smell 20-14 Pittsburgh.

ron b

January 25th, 2011
4:57 pm

Darnell lighten the color tint on your glasses

SID

January 25th, 2011
5:00 pm

The Pack is Back!!!!!!!!!!!

Nativebird

January 25th, 2011
5:02 pm

When the world watches the abject supreme level in which Aaron Rodgers DIS-ASSEMBLED the (apparently paper-tiger) Atlanta Falcons 2 weeks ago, you CANNOT under-estimate the power of that visual. We (the Falcons) actually were what the experts thought we were….very average and very lucky to have a 13-3 record. The CAVERN between the Packers and the #1 NFC seed in talent, ability, coaching, playmaking was VASTly on display and it is still carrying Green Bay aloft the betting world.

Chazlow Bond

January 25th, 2011
5:06 pm

Brady and Brees took them apart pretty handily. If the Steelers can’t get sufficient pressure the Pack will score too many points. If the game is played tight and ugly probably the Steelers close. Lot of pressure on site and maybe Pitt’s experience is a strong factor in their favor. If I were to bet the $1,000 I’d bet the Pack’s passing attack.

take it from me

January 25th, 2011
5:08 pm

If this game were in Pittsburg, it would be a blow out! Pittsburg wins 35-21. no way packers run or throw on Steelers.

Bill

January 25th, 2011
5:10 pm

“because I think the Steelers are powerful and proven and a Brand Name to boot”. So, Green Bay is not a brand name??

Bodog

January 25th, 2011
5:14 pm

I have been a long time fan of the game, and I too was baffled by the odds posted by the sportsbooks. The sportsbooks have definitely thrown a monkey wrench into our spokes.
They know that they have us all scratchin our heads, asking-WHY? Answer: *Gimmick*
They also know that they will be unindated with heavy hitters placing big green on the dog.
The books have planted the seed, and equally enough will have the naysayers & as usual, the confused grasping for straws.
So, why not bet the fav they ask?…. The Books must know something!!! So, to be Patriotic, I shall answer that question in 9 short words that you can take to the $$$bank$$$!!!
1. Hines Ward 2. The Books will not lose any money.

buck strickland

January 25th, 2011
5:15 pm

The fact that you’re surprised by this mark will probably increase the spread to 5.

You’re not exactly Nostradamus when it comes to picking winners…

gt

January 25th, 2011
5:16 pm

Green Bay has traveled the longest road to get here, on the road no climate advantage. Dallas is played indoors, Green Bay played near a perfect game the last indoor appearance. I think Atlanta is a Pittsburgh town, you have their great receiver playing for Pittsburgh, but the Green Bay I saw play in Atlanta could beat anybody on the field, bad, including Pittsburgh. They are the flavor of the month because they beat the best teams getting to the dance. They beat a really good Atlanta team, kills the local press to say it, but they beat Atlanta at home, beat Philly at home. I really cannot see the Steelers winning this in any angle, though they have another great coaching staff and two weeks to prepare. Any team that can tear us up like they did is a very good football team.

Uttla

January 25th, 2011
5:18 pm

Remember New Orleans, Indy, and Philly were all favored in wildcard. Atlanta and New England were favored in divisional. Maybe the oddsmakers were tired of picking against Greenbay.

teedub

January 25th, 2011
5:20 pm

@Capologist & ACE – not passing judgement at all. I really don’t care about either team. Of course luck/officiating, etc. plays a part in any championship. But the Falcons analogy you made is exactly what I’m talking about. The Falcons weren’t quite as good as their record, IMO, and I think the same can be said for the Steelers. Hence GB being favored.

59bulldawg

January 25th, 2011
5:21 pm

Steelers O-line is neither healthy or deep. Pouncey is questionable and the Pack’s D-line is playing well … especially their NG.

MountainDawg

January 25th, 2011
5:23 pm

I like GB with the better QB, OL, LB corps & DBs.

Passing

January 25th, 2011
5:29 pm

Rodgers will pick the Pitt secondary apart.

ACE

January 25th, 2011
5:32 pm

@teedub-I’m a Steelers fan and I remember us winning a few games two years ago that we should have lost. Every SB winning team has at least 2 games every year they should have lost. The fact that Atlanta was getting those breaks was one of the reasons I thought it would be a Pitts/Atl SB

ACE

January 25th, 2011
5:34 pm

@mountaindawg-The fact that you think GB has better LB’s lets everybody know you are clueless.

pete

January 25th, 2011
5:34 pm

there was actually a line at halftime for gb vs pitt. it was pitt by 1.5 at that time. i guess when pitt let the jets back in it, the line changed.

AK

January 25th, 2011
5:39 pm

Steelers will manhandle gay bay and their fragile qb.
Here we go
31-17

ACE

January 25th, 2011
5:41 pm

@mountaindawg-So you would rather have Clay Matthews, A J Hawk,Desmond Bishop, and Frank Zombo instead of James Harrison, Lamarr Woodley,Lawrence Timmons, and James Farrior? I’ll bet you I win more games with my LB’s

ACE

January 25th, 2011
5:42 pm

@mountain-I hope you don’t get a job as an NFL G.M.

ACE

January 25th, 2011
5:43 pm

This is the same Green Bay team that couldn’t score a TD against the Lions about a month ago

JASon

January 25th, 2011
5:44 pm

“because I think the Steelers are powerful and proven and a Brand Name to boot”

Vegas doesn’t care which team is a brand name. Besides, Green Bay is going to mop the floor with Pittsburgh.

nemov

January 25th, 2011
5:46 pm

The NFC wasn’t very good this season. I’ll be surprised if the Packers keep it within a TD.

JASon

January 25th, 2011
5:46 pm

Hey ACE, you moron, that was without Aaron Rodgers.

Kacy

January 25th, 2011
5:46 pm

VT favored by 3 tonight over GT
I like them hokies. Put 2500 on them.
VT 73
GT 62

ACE

January 25th, 2011
5:47 pm

Attention: Mark
I figured that Brett Keisel’s beard was worth at least 7 points. If you don’t know what I’m talking, google it.

Steve

January 25th, 2011
5:48 pm

GB is a weak azz team
Steelers romp those retard cheese heads by 2 td’s

Reid Adair

January 25th, 2011
5:48 pm

Looking at it before the playoffs started, I would have agreed wholeheartedly with you, Mark.

Looking at it now, after Green Bay has gone on the road to beat Philadelphia, Atlanta and Chicago, I believe they are the better team and should be favored.

ACE

January 25th, 2011
5:51 pm

@jason-Hey thanks for the name calling, it sure seemed warranted. Pitts beat Atlanta,Tenn, and Tampa with a 3rd or 4th string QB. I thought good teams overcame injuries not used them as an excuse. Once again thanks for showing your true age/maturity level

Skeezix

January 25th, 2011
5:52 pm

2 pts.? —basically a wash.

ACE

January 25th, 2011
5:54 pm

Don’t post anything Jason doesn’t agree with or he’ll start name calling. What a great way to deal with an alternate opinion. Why didn’t I think of that?

ron b

January 25th, 2011
5:56 pm

dARNELL TAKE OFF YOUR COLOR TINTED GLASSES

JacketSteve

January 25th, 2011
5:58 pm

The line doesn’t surprise me at all because Green Bay is the flashy, hot team right now. That blowout of Atlanta made them look better than they are. A couple years ago GB and Pittsburgh played a regular season game that was a shootout with Pittsburgh winning on a 15 yd or so TD pass on the final play of the game. It was awesome to watch. Don’t think the Steelers are all defense. They can throw it around and score with anybody. Their wide receivers can fly, and they showed against NYJ that they can run. Ward, Wallace, Brown, Sanders, Heath Miller – Matt Ryan would love to have those guys to throw to. Steelers D keeps Rodgers in check and the offense brings home SB Ring Number 7, Pitt 34 – GB 23. GO STEELERS!!!

Bodog

January 25th, 2011
6:00 pm

Dont forget folks—The Big Hair Man will have a say on the outcome of the game!

dawg4u

January 25th, 2011
6:00 pm

I agree Mark that Pittsburgh should be favored especially since Green Bay was 3-3 in their last 6 games of the regular season and had to intercept a Mike Vick pass in the end zone to beat Philly. I think the reason may be because Pittsburgh has had two bad halves – the first half against Baltimore and the second against the Jets plus Green Bay looked unstoppable against the Falcons in their indoor game. I don’t think any of the other NFC seeded teams (with the possible exception of New Orleans) would be favored over Pittsburgh.

Navigator

January 25th, 2011
6:01 pm

I laugh at some of these post, wait a minute I just laughed at another one. No one knows who’s going to win the super bowl, no matter how arrogant you give your answer and dismiss others. Why are the odds makers picking Green Bay, well it’s probably their defense (especially their pass defense). Although the Steelers have a good defense, it isn’t as good as Green Bay’s. Another item is their receiving corp (which torched the Falcon defense), which is a step quicker than Steelers. I feel the QB’s are about equal what they bring to the game, but in different ways. However, would I be stupid enough to guarantee a win for either, absolutely not. It will probably come down to the last possession of the game.

Rex Ryan

January 25th, 2011
6:02 pm

Okay! I am big loud mouth and a lot of my players are big loudmouths. So why are so many people glad we lost?

Dixiecom

January 25th, 2011
6:02 pm

My wife says that Green bay has the prettier jerseys, & will win.
She is always right too

Dick Cheney

January 25th, 2011
6:04 pm

I like to shoot lawyers in the face.

MajorityOfOne

January 25th, 2011
6:04 pm

I don’t particularly like either team but I pick the Steelers due to their track record in big games. The Steelers always seem to rise to the occasion when all the cards are on the tale. Plus I think the odds are working against the Packers of beating a high quality team for the 4th time in a row. Rodgers proved himself to be a mere mortal against the Bears.

I think it’s one of the best matchups, though, in recent years. Should be a heckuva game.

MajorityOfOne

January 25th, 2011
6:04 pm

woops……That’s table not tale

Dontavius Supremo

January 25th, 2011
6:10 pm

Pitt wins by 17; you saw it here.

Milledegeville, Georgia

January 25th, 2011
6:26 pm

. . . . . go PACKERS . . . . .

It's easy...

January 25th, 2011
6:29 pm

…GB is favored because their QB is still on a roll….as is their defense…

dawg4u

January 25th, 2011
6:33 pm

This could be the Super Bowl that features the two ugliest starting qb’s ever.

fat alligator

January 25th, 2011
7:58 pm

You don’t know nuthin!

Tell the truth

January 25th, 2011
7:58 pm

Packers 24-17

Jeff R

January 25th, 2011
8:29 pm

I have never placed a bet, but being a Packers fan, I would bet on the Steelers. If the Pack lost, it would ease the sting.

Sports Review

January 25th, 2011
9:15 pm

[...] to the Super BowlFanHouseAFC North links: Hampton back in TexasESPN (blog)FOXSports.com -Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) -The Star-Ledger – NJ.comall 9,635 news [...]

billcanoe

January 25th, 2011
9:16 pm

Mark – I agree with your thought that Pittsburgh should be favored. However, the 1972 Miami Dolphins are not widely regarded as the NFL’s greatest. They played one of the weakest schedules ever for a title team. There are numerous teams that were much better than the 1972 Dolphins – the Packers of Lombardi, the Steelers of Bradshaw, the Patriots of Brady, to mention a few. For that matter, the Browns of Otto Graham, Marion Motley, Dante Lavelli and Mac Speedie were much better – and I go back that far.

cheshire

January 25th, 2011
9:31 pm

I think you answered your own question in the article when you said “Green Bay is the flavor of the month”.

The more I watch the NFL, the more I realize that it’s pundits and oddsmakers are not unlike a group of teenage girls who rush from boy band to boy band based on whatever MTV tells them they should listen to. They just get obsessed with teams and make us hear about them constantly. Remember how awesome you kept hearing the Cowboys would be this year for no particular reason? Or how the Eagles were the new dominant powerhouse because Vick had 2 or 3 great games?

I’m not saying the Packers can’t win, but there is a reason they lost 6 times in the regular season, and it wasn’t just injuries. They are a very beatable team. Of course you have to have a competent defense (unlike we did) or a competent offense (unlike the Bears did) to stop them.

The Steelers have both. If the Bears defense can contain Rodgers the way they did, you better believe the Steelers can. And unlike the Bears, the Steelers actually have a consistent QB and an offense that can get the job done.

Could Green Bay win? Yeah, they could. But I definitely like Pittsburgh in this game.

Mark Bradley

January 25th, 2011
9:40 pm

That’s true, billcanoe. And the 1972 Dolphins had to come from behind in their two playoff games before beating Washington.

The 1973 Dolphins were much better than the 17-0 team.

Old Dawg

January 25th, 2011
9:50 pm

Green Bay is really popular throughout the country. It goes back to the Lombardi years and the cast of great characters on his teams. Pittsburgh has never been very popular outside of western PA, and the legal issues of Big Ben doesn’t help the team’s image … so the sentiment goes with the Packers.

Right now I think the game is a complete toss up. I’m actually waiting on the commercials more than the ball game, primarily GoDaddy.com’s!

jarvis

January 25th, 2011
9:52 pm

Yes. You’re the only one, MB….hence the less than a field goal line.

Connecticut Falcons Fan

January 25th, 2011
10:59 pm

I think you’re overrating the AFC, Mark. I think the balance of power has shifted…NFC has won 2 of the last 3 SBs and interconference games over the last 3 seasons have been about 50/50. Look at this year’s playoff teams in interconference games–Falcons beat the Ravens, Packers beat the Jets and nearly beat the overrated Patriots with a back-up QB, Bears beat the Jets, Saints crushed the Steelers, Eagles crushed the Colts…I see the Packers making it 3 of 4 for the NFC.

Gen Neyland

January 25th, 2011
11:20 pm

I’m somewhat neutral on the line and who is favored stuff (Remember Joe the Jet). Sunday night, my early pick in the Super Bowl was Green Bay. My late pick nearer the kickoff could change. Overall, we’ve got the makings for a decent championship game. BTW, pitchers and catchers report soon thereafter…

Sports Review

January 25th, 2011
11:41 pm

[...] withstand Jets' charge in AFC tFOXSports.comSeriously now: Do you really want to bet against these guys? (AP photo)Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog)FanHouse -Sun-Sentinel -The Star-Ledger – [...]

The Real Vince(Lombari) Not Dooley

January 25th, 2011
11:48 pm

Packs rules baby.

The Real Vince(Lombari) Not Dooley

January 25th, 2011
11:49 pm

Bradley, stick to UK basketball. You don’t know squat about football.

Dr. Warren

January 26th, 2011
12:11 am

There is no doubt in my mind that the Steelers will win this game. I don’t like either team, but I go by historical patterns, and for one, I don’t see a first-time SB qb beating a two-time winner.

???????

January 26th, 2011
1:37 am

Why is gd a favorite…Rodgers has never played in the big game and big ben has 2 rings….Pitt-27 Gb-21

Pat Dye

January 26th, 2011
5:46 am

I hope Rogers gets slammed !!!

marty

January 26th, 2011
7:15 am

Green Bay is the favorite because their front seven overmatches the Pittsburgh O-Line

bill

January 26th, 2011
7:40 am

I feel as confident that Pittsburg will win big as i was when the Giants played Minnesota for the NFC several years ago. Minnesota was a 6 pt. favorite and the giants beat them 41 to zip. Won a grand and was up 47 at the end. What a game. i hate the Steelers and the king penis QB but they will win.

sansho1

January 26th, 2011
7:53 am

It took a while, but someone finally hit on the reason (along with Rodgers being the hot qb) for this pointspread — the Steelers’ offensive line is decimated.

UGAFan

January 26th, 2011
8:22 am

Mark, the gamblers are probably betting on the facts that the Steelers have no offensive linemen left, and Green Bay is considered to be a speedy, dome-type team (a la Vermeil’s Rams teams) who, unfortunately has to play outdoors. GB reinforced that by its performance in the Ga Dome last week. Jerry’s house has the same rug, I have read.

I don’t think I could bet against big Ben, though. In addition to his slimey character, he is a big game, playmaker.

UGAFan

January 26th, 2011
8:23 am

Who’s Vince Lombari?

John

January 26th, 2011
8:55 am

Mark — I think you are on target on this. My friend and I bet on a lot of games, and this line just seems wrong. I’d have guessed the Steellrs would be favored by 2.5 to 3.5 points. People seem to think the Packers are amazing and seem to miss the fact that they barely made the playofs and were a Micheal Vick poor decision from a first round exit. Not to mention that many of the Steelers have Super Bowl experience. The only explanantion that seems logical to me is that the Packers are the team that most people WANT to win — maybe due to the Favre/Rodgers saga or the Roesthenberger (sp) off-field issues? In theory, the line reflects a point spread that will result in 50% of bets on each side, so a line favoring the Packers will help ensure that more people bet on the Steelers than otherwise would have.

Sam

January 26th, 2011
9:51 am

Packers lost 6 games – 2 by a field goal in OT, 2 by a field goal in the last 10 seconds of the game, and 2 by four points each game. 6 losses by a total of 20 points. This is a top level team.

Fussball Fan

January 26th, 2011
9:53 am

OldDawg,
I have no dog or dawg in this fight, but I just had to inform you that the Pittsburg Steelers are either #1 , #2 or 3 as the most popular NFL team. The ONLY teams that may have more fans than the Steelers are the Dallas Cowboys or maybe the Green Bay Packers. During the 3 Super Bowls that the Cowboys and Steelers played, there were always more Steeler fans in attendance than Cowboy fans. To bad that the Super Bowl has become so corporate now, because it would have been nice to see who brought more fans to the stadium in Dallas. The only popular in Western PA. idea is not true. Remember, people always love a winner and the Steelers, Cowboys and Packers are winners.

Jim

January 26th, 2011
1:05 pm

H3ll no you’re not. I guess because GB beat the crap out of Atlanta everyone seem to think they all of sudden have an unstoppable offense. They have averaged only 2 TD’s the last 3 to 4 games if you remove that pitiful Atlanta defense from the equation. Atlanta is the only team they clobbered offensively. And we all know, Pittsburgh and Atlanta are about 20 zillion miles apart when it comes to playing defense.

Anybody that is anybody that knows anything about Superbowls know anytime a high power offense meets a BAD AZZ defense who and what wins.

Bishop Eddie Longs Red Panties

January 26th, 2011
1:11 pm

Did you see Darnells post He just couldn’t help himself He had to play
the RACE CARD!!!!!!!

Ed (The Original)

January 26th, 2011
1:15 pm

Herschel’s talking about coming back to the NFL at age 48. We love Herschel, but he wasn’t exactly setting the league on fire in his 30s. Check out some film of Clay Matthews and reconsider, Herschel.

I’m also surprised that the Packers are favored. 12-4 v. 10-6 usually indicates a better team. But right now the Packers are as good as anyone, so who knows? It’s a toss-up and if I was a betting man I’d take the points.

Matt

January 26th, 2011
1:16 pm

It’s really too bad that NY had to ruin NE perfect season on such a lucky play. Manning escapes a sure sack and throws a wobbly pass down the field where it is subsequently caught on the helmet of a player being double covered. Eli Manning is an avg NFl QB and now is in elite company with a Super Bowl ring.

Ed (The Original)

January 26th, 2011
1:18 pm

There are a lot of NFL GMs who are wondering how they could have passed up Aaron Rodgers as he slipped to the bottom of the 1st round. So much for the theory that Cal’s coach Tedford doesn’t develope NFL quarterbacks. Rodgers has as strong a throwing arm as anyone I’ve seen in a long time.

Jeff

January 26th, 2011
2:12 pm

The Packers are favored because if the Steelers have a weakness, it is against good passing teams. This goes back to the second half of the last Super Bowl that the Steelers played in against the Cardinals. Kurt Warner threw for over 400 yards in that game – against the #1 rated defense in ALL categories (including pass defense). The Cards, who did not have that great of a defense, darn near beat the Steelers against their defense which was even better than this years. (This year, they were 12th against the pass.) Granted, what happened two Super Bowls might not mean much now.

But consider that the same trend has continued for the Steelers – they struggle against good passing teams. New Orleans and New England shredded their defense this year and won.

As a Steelers fan, I have confidence that they can put together a plan to slow down Rogers. If it wasn’t for a 2-week preparation time, I might not be so confident.

But I think the Steelers struggles against good passing teams might be the reason the Packers are favored.

GOPACKGO

January 26th, 2011
2:32 pm

I still don’t understand why Mark Bradley isn’t giving the Packers the respect they’re due after they demolished your precious birds at home. Should they have won by more points?

Kathy Dunn

January 26th, 2011
2:45 pm

As a lifelong Steelers fan, I’m quite happy the Packers are favored. My team always plays it’s best when we’ve been disrespected.

ATL Badger

January 26th, 2011
2:54 pm

Atlanta is clearly a city with pro-Steeler sentiments! Why is Green Bay favored? I dunno – maybe it’s because they beat the number one, two, and three seeds of the NFC playoffs on the road??!!! I mean really, is this really a debate?

Trust me, that’s not to say that the game can go either way, but people on this forum need to get over their hate/biases stemming in part from the Pack whipping the Falcons, as well as in part from the closer proximity of Pittsburgh to Atlanta, and look at the facts before engaging in extreme hyperbole!

hiramsaint

January 26th, 2011
3:49 pm

do the falcons still have a mathematical chance to get in? hehehehehehehehehehehehehe !

hbcuclassics

January 26th, 2011
5:33 pm

2011 HBCU Draft Top CBs

1. Dionte Dinkins, 6′1, 196 FVSU

2. Moses Ellis, 5′9, 180 Prairie View
led nation w/ 8 ints.

3. Jacques Rickerson, 5′10, 186, Ala St.

4. Brandon Bufford, 5′11, 179, Howard

5. Dajuan Williams, 6′0, 170, FVSU

6. Dante Barnes, 6′1, 185, Norfolk St.

7. Jamie Short, 6′1, 205, Norfolk St.

8. Justin Ferrell, 5′11, 185, NC A&T

9. Quier Hall, 6′0, 190, FAMU

10. Prathon Wilkerson, 6′0, 190 Albany St.

http://www.hbcuclassics.com

Kelly

January 27th, 2011
7:27 am

The Packers are really good. They were the pre-season pick by many to win the super bowl. They have won as many games as the Falcons this year when you include playoffs. In their six losses, they lost by a combined 20 points. These are the reasons that I was not surprised.

Profit At Gambling

January 31st, 2011
1:50 pm

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