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Mark Bradley

Am I the only one who’s surprised Green Bay is favored?

3:02 pm January 25, 2011, by Mark Bradley

The AFC champ has won nine of the past 13 Super Bowls. Pittsburgh was the No. 2 seed in the AFC, going 12-4. Pittsburgh has won two of the past five Super Bowls, and now, facing a wild-card qualifier that won two fewer games this season, Pittsburgh is …

A 2 1/2-point underdog.

Not much surprises me anymore, but this did. Not that I don’t think the Packers are good — Arthur Blank and I witnessed firsthand just how good they can be — but because I think the Steelers are powerful and proven and a Brand Name to boot, and that’s the type of team that tends to be given the benefit of most doubts. (Not that I have doubts about the Steelers. Saw them beat the Falcons, too — without their starting quarterback.)

I know Green Bay is the flavor of the month. I know it has beaten the Nos. 3, 1 and 2 seeds in the NFC en route to Super Bowl XLV. But still: Favored over Pittsburgh?

I also know that there’s precedent for a No. 6 seed being favored in the Super Bowl: The Steelers were against Seattle, which was the NFC’s top seed, six years ago. And I know, too, that a betting line isn’t so much a prediction on the game as it is an estimate of how the public will wager. (The perfect line is one that never moves, meaning that an equal amount is bet on both teams.) I know all of that stuff. And still I don’t get this one.

Who should be favored?

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Maybe I’m just being obtuse. It wouldn’t be the first time. I was surprised the Packers wound up only a 1-point underdog against the Falcons, who were playing at home and who were 13-3 and who’d already beaten Green Bay.  (I was less surprised the Packers were favored over the Bears.)

Obviously some folks with money know what they’re doing. And I could see Green Bay being favored over the Jets. But it’s not playing the Jets. It’s playing the Steelers, and the Steelers are really good.

That said … the Super Bowl line can be tricky. The Broncos, who were 10-4-1, were favored over the Redskins, who were 11-4, back in January 1988. (Washington won 42-10.) The Raiders, who were 11-5, were favored over the Buccaneers, who were 12-4, in 2003. (Tampa Bay won 48-21.) Heck, the team widely regarded as the NFL’s greatest ever — the unbeaten Dolphins of 1972 — was only a 1-point favorite over the 11-3 Redskins in Super Bowl VII.

That said … I still don’t get this one. Maybe you do. If so, I’d appreciate it if you could explain to me.

By Mark Bradley

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139 comments Add your comment

dawg4u

January 25th, 2011
6:33 pm

This could be the Super Bowl that features the two ugliest starting qb’s ever.

fat alligator

January 25th, 2011
7:58 pm

You don’t know nuthin!

Tell the truth

January 25th, 2011
7:58 pm

Packers 24-17

Jeff R

January 25th, 2011
8:29 pm

I have never placed a bet, but being a Packers fan, I would bet on the Steelers. If the Pack lost, it would ease the sting.

Sports Review

January 25th, 2011
9:15 pm

[...] to the Super BowlFanHouseAFC North links: Hampton back in TexasESPN (blog)FOXSports.com -Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) -The Star-Ledger – NJ.comall 9,635 news [...]

billcanoe

January 25th, 2011
9:16 pm

Mark – I agree with your thought that Pittsburgh should be favored. However, the 1972 Miami Dolphins are not widely regarded as the NFL’s greatest. They played one of the weakest schedules ever for a title team. There are numerous teams that were much better than the 1972 Dolphins – the Packers of Lombardi, the Steelers of Bradshaw, the Patriots of Brady, to mention a few. For that matter, the Browns of Otto Graham, Marion Motley, Dante Lavelli and Mac Speedie were much better – and I go back that far.

cheshire

January 25th, 2011
9:31 pm

I think you answered your own question in the article when you said “Green Bay is the flavor of the month”.

The more I watch the NFL, the more I realize that it’s pundits and oddsmakers are not unlike a group of teenage girls who rush from boy band to boy band based on whatever MTV tells them they should listen to. They just get obsessed with teams and make us hear about them constantly. Remember how awesome you kept hearing the Cowboys would be this year for no particular reason? Or how the Eagles were the new dominant powerhouse because Vick had 2 or 3 great games?

I’m not saying the Packers can’t win, but there is a reason they lost 6 times in the regular season, and it wasn’t just injuries. They are a very beatable team. Of course you have to have a competent defense (unlike we did) or a competent offense (unlike the Bears did) to stop them.

The Steelers have both. If the Bears defense can contain Rodgers the way they did, you better believe the Steelers can. And unlike the Bears, the Steelers actually have a consistent QB and an offense that can get the job done.

Could Green Bay win? Yeah, they could. But I definitely like Pittsburgh in this game.

Mark Bradley

January 25th, 2011
9:40 pm

That’s true, billcanoe. And the 1972 Dolphins had to come from behind in their two playoff games before beating Washington.

The 1973 Dolphins were much better than the 17-0 team.

Old Dawg

January 25th, 2011
9:50 pm

Green Bay is really popular throughout the country. It goes back to the Lombardi years and the cast of great characters on his teams. Pittsburgh has never been very popular outside of western PA, and the legal issues of Big Ben doesn’t help the team’s image … so the sentiment goes with the Packers.

Right now I think the game is a complete toss up. I’m actually waiting on the commercials more than the ball game, primarily GoDaddy.com’s!

jarvis

January 25th, 2011
9:52 pm

Yes. You’re the only one, MB….hence the less than a field goal line.

Connecticut Falcons Fan

January 25th, 2011
10:59 pm

I think you’re overrating the AFC, Mark. I think the balance of power has shifted…NFC has won 2 of the last 3 SBs and interconference games over the last 3 seasons have been about 50/50. Look at this year’s playoff teams in interconference games–Falcons beat the Ravens, Packers beat the Jets and nearly beat the overrated Patriots with a back-up QB, Bears beat the Jets, Saints crushed the Steelers, Eagles crushed the Colts…I see the Packers making it 3 of 4 for the NFC.

Gen Neyland

January 25th, 2011
11:20 pm

I’m somewhat neutral on the line and who is favored stuff (Remember Joe the Jet). Sunday night, my early pick in the Super Bowl was Green Bay. My late pick nearer the kickoff could change. Overall, we’ve got the makings for a decent championship game. BTW, pitchers and catchers report soon thereafter…

Sports Review

January 25th, 2011
11:41 pm

[...] withstand Jets' charge in AFC tFOXSports.comSeriously now: Do you really want to bet against these guys? (AP photo)Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog)FanHouse -Sun-Sentinel -The Star-Ledger – [...]

The Real Vince(Lombari) Not Dooley

January 25th, 2011
11:48 pm

Packs rules baby.

The Real Vince(Lombari) Not Dooley

January 25th, 2011
11:49 pm

Bradley, stick to UK basketball. You don’t know squat about football.

Dr. Warren

January 26th, 2011
12:11 am

There is no doubt in my mind that the Steelers will win this game. I don’t like either team, but I go by historical patterns, and for one, I don’t see a first-time SB qb beating a two-time winner.

???????

January 26th, 2011
1:37 am

Why is gd a favorite…Rodgers has never played in the big game and big ben has 2 rings….Pitt-27 Gb-21

Pat Dye

January 26th, 2011
5:46 am

I hope Rogers gets slammed !!!

marty

January 26th, 2011
7:15 am

Green Bay is the favorite because their front seven overmatches the Pittsburgh O-Line

bill

January 26th, 2011
7:40 am

I feel as confident that Pittsburg will win big as i was when the Giants played Minnesota for the NFC several years ago. Minnesota was a 6 pt. favorite and the giants beat them 41 to zip. Won a grand and was up 47 at the end. What a game. i hate the Steelers and the king penis QB but they will win.

sansho1

January 26th, 2011
7:53 am

It took a while, but someone finally hit on the reason (along with Rodgers being the hot qb) for this pointspread — the Steelers’ offensive line is decimated.

UGAFan

January 26th, 2011
8:22 am

Mark, the gamblers are probably betting on the facts that the Steelers have no offensive linemen left, and Green Bay is considered to be a speedy, dome-type team (a la Vermeil’s Rams teams) who, unfortunately has to play outdoors. GB reinforced that by its performance in the Ga Dome last week. Jerry’s house has the same rug, I have read.

I don’t think I could bet against big Ben, though. In addition to his slimey character, he is a big game, playmaker.

UGAFan

January 26th, 2011
8:23 am

Who’s Vince Lombari?

John

January 26th, 2011
8:55 am

Mark — I think you are on target on this. My friend and I bet on a lot of games, and this line just seems wrong. I’d have guessed the Steellrs would be favored by 2.5 to 3.5 points. People seem to think the Packers are amazing and seem to miss the fact that they barely made the playofs and were a Micheal Vick poor decision from a first round exit. Not to mention that many of the Steelers have Super Bowl experience. The only explanantion that seems logical to me is that the Packers are the team that most people WANT to win — maybe due to the Favre/Rodgers saga or the Roesthenberger (sp) off-field issues? In theory, the line reflects a point spread that will result in 50% of bets on each side, so a line favoring the Packers will help ensure that more people bet on the Steelers than otherwise would have.

Sam

January 26th, 2011
9:51 am

Packers lost 6 games – 2 by a field goal in OT, 2 by a field goal in the last 10 seconds of the game, and 2 by four points each game. 6 losses by a total of 20 points. This is a top level team.

Fussball Fan

January 26th, 2011
9:53 am

OldDawg,
I have no dog or dawg in this fight, but I just had to inform you that the Pittsburg Steelers are either #1 , #2 or 3 as the most popular NFL team. The ONLY teams that may have more fans than the Steelers are the Dallas Cowboys or maybe the Green Bay Packers. During the 3 Super Bowls that the Cowboys and Steelers played, there were always more Steeler fans in attendance than Cowboy fans. To bad that the Super Bowl has become so corporate now, because it would have been nice to see who brought more fans to the stadium in Dallas. The only popular in Western PA. idea is not true. Remember, people always love a winner and the Steelers, Cowboys and Packers are winners.

Jim

January 26th, 2011
1:05 pm

H3ll no you’re not. I guess because GB beat the crap out of Atlanta everyone seem to think they all of sudden have an unstoppable offense. They have averaged only 2 TD’s the last 3 to 4 games if you remove that pitiful Atlanta defense from the equation. Atlanta is the only team they clobbered offensively. And we all know, Pittsburgh and Atlanta are about 20 zillion miles apart when it comes to playing defense.

Anybody that is anybody that knows anything about Superbowls know anytime a high power offense meets a BAD AZZ defense who and what wins.

Bishop Eddie Longs Red Panties

January 26th, 2011
1:11 pm

Did you see Darnells post He just couldn’t help himself He had to play
the RACE CARD!!!!!!!

Ed (The Original)

January 26th, 2011
1:15 pm

Herschel’s talking about coming back to the NFL at age 48. We love Herschel, but he wasn’t exactly setting the league on fire in his 30s. Check out some film of Clay Matthews and reconsider, Herschel.

I’m also surprised that the Packers are favored. 12-4 v. 10-6 usually indicates a better team. But right now the Packers are as good as anyone, so who knows? It’s a toss-up and if I was a betting man I’d take the points.

Matt

January 26th, 2011
1:16 pm

It’s really too bad that NY had to ruin NE perfect season on such a lucky play. Manning escapes a sure sack and throws a wobbly pass down the field where it is subsequently caught on the helmet of a player being double covered. Eli Manning is an avg NFl QB and now is in elite company with a Super Bowl ring.

Ed (The Original)

January 26th, 2011
1:18 pm

There are a lot of NFL GMs who are wondering how they could have passed up Aaron Rodgers as he slipped to the bottom of the 1st round. So much for the theory that Cal’s coach Tedford doesn’t develope NFL quarterbacks. Rodgers has as strong a throwing arm as anyone I’ve seen in a long time.

Jeff

January 26th, 2011
2:12 pm

The Packers are favored because if the Steelers have a weakness, it is against good passing teams. This goes back to the second half of the last Super Bowl that the Steelers played in against the Cardinals. Kurt Warner threw for over 400 yards in that game – against the #1 rated defense in ALL categories (including pass defense). The Cards, who did not have that great of a defense, darn near beat the Steelers against their defense which was even better than this years. (This year, they were 12th against the pass.) Granted, what happened two Super Bowls might not mean much now.

But consider that the same trend has continued for the Steelers – they struggle against good passing teams. New Orleans and New England shredded their defense this year and won.

As a Steelers fan, I have confidence that they can put together a plan to slow down Rogers. If it wasn’t for a 2-week preparation time, I might not be so confident.

But I think the Steelers struggles against good passing teams might be the reason the Packers are favored.

GOPACKGO

January 26th, 2011
2:32 pm

I still don’t understand why Mark Bradley isn’t giving the Packers the respect they’re due after they demolished your precious birds at home. Should they have won by more points?

Kathy Dunn

January 26th, 2011
2:45 pm

As a lifelong Steelers fan, I’m quite happy the Packers are favored. My team always plays it’s best when we’ve been disrespected.

ATL Badger

January 26th, 2011
2:54 pm

Atlanta is clearly a city with pro-Steeler sentiments! Why is Green Bay favored? I dunno – maybe it’s because they beat the number one, two, and three seeds of the NFC playoffs on the road??!!! I mean really, is this really a debate?

Trust me, that’s not to say that the game can go either way, but people on this forum need to get over their hate/biases stemming in part from the Pack whipping the Falcons, as well as in part from the closer proximity of Pittsburgh to Atlanta, and look at the facts before engaging in extreme hyperbole!

hiramsaint

January 26th, 2011
3:49 pm

do the falcons still have a mathematical chance to get in? hehehehehehehehehehehehehe !

hbcuclassics

January 26th, 2011
5:33 pm

2011 HBCU Draft Top CBs

1. Dionte Dinkins, 6′1, 196 FVSU

2. Moses Ellis, 5′9, 180 Prairie View
led nation w/ 8 ints.

3. Jacques Rickerson, 5′10, 186, Ala St.

4. Brandon Bufford, 5′11, 179, Howard

5. Dajuan Williams, 6′0, 170, FVSU

6. Dante Barnes, 6′1, 185, Norfolk St.

7. Jamie Short, 6′1, 205, Norfolk St.

8. Justin Ferrell, 5′11, 185, NC A&T

9. Quier Hall, 6′0, 190, FAMU

10. Prathon Wilkerson, 6′0, 190 Albany St.

http://www.hbcuclassics.com

Kelly

January 27th, 2011
7:27 am

The Packers are really good. They were the pre-season pick by many to win the super bowl. They have won as many games as the Falcons this year when you include playoffs. In their six losses, they lost by a combined 20 points. These are the reasons that I was not surprised.

Profit At Gambling

January 31st, 2011
1:50 pm

One thing I have noticed throught the years is most sports bettors bet with their heart not their inteligence. There is only one way to make money when you are betting on sports and that’s to have a good system that works and you need to hit over 56% of your wagers due to the vig. I started using this system that has help overcome betting with my heart and betting on numbers that make sense. It cost me $197 but I am hitting over 65% of my wagers so the small cost that I had to pay for it was made up in the first week alone and I still made a decent profit. If you would like to check it out go here —> bit.ly/hPjwCo it will be the best $197 you ever spent

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