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Mark Bradley

Am I the only one who’s surprised Green Bay is favored?

3:02 pm January 25, 2011, by Mark Bradley

The AFC champ has won nine of the past 13 Super Bowls. Pittsburgh was the No. 2 seed in the AFC, going 12-4. Pittsburgh has won two of the past five Super Bowls, and now, facing a wild-card qualifier that won two fewer games this season, Pittsburgh is …

A 2 1/2-point underdog.

Not much surprises me anymore, but this did. Not that I don’t think the Packers are good — Arthur Blank and I witnessed firsthand just how good they can be — but because I think the Steelers are powerful and proven and a Brand Name to boot, and that’s the type of team that tends to be given the benefit of most doubts. (Not that I have doubts about the Steelers. Saw them beat the Falcons, too — without their starting quarterback.)

I know Green Bay is the flavor of the month. I know it has beaten the Nos. 3, 1 and 2 seeds in the NFC en route to Super Bowl XLV. But still: Favored over Pittsburgh?

I also know that there’s precedent for a No. 6 seed being favored in the Super Bowl: The Steelers were against Seattle, which was the NFC’s top seed, six years ago. And I know, too, that a betting line isn’t so much a prediction on the game as it is an estimate of how the public will wager. (The perfect line is one that never moves, meaning that an equal amount is bet on both teams.) I know all of that stuff. And still I don’t get this one.

Who should be favored?

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Maybe I’m just being obtuse. It wouldn’t be the first time. I was surprised the Packers wound up only a 1-point underdog against the Falcons, who were playing at home and who were 13-3 and who’d already beaten Green Bay.  (I was less surprised the Packers were favored over the Bears.)

Obviously some folks with money know what they’re doing. And I could see Green Bay being favored over the Jets. But it’s not playing the Jets. It’s playing the Steelers, and the Steelers are really good.

That said … the Super Bowl line can be tricky. The Broncos, who were 10-4-1, were favored over the Redskins, who were 11-4, back in January 1988. (Washington won 42-10.) The Raiders, who were 11-5, were favored over the Buccaneers, who were 12-4, in 2003. (Tampa Bay won 48-21.) Heck, the team widely regarded as the NFL’s greatest ever — the unbeaten Dolphins of 1972 — was only a 1-point favorite over the 11-3 Redskins in Super Bowl VII.

That said … I still don’t get this one. Maybe you do. If so, I’d appreciate it if you could explain to me.

By Mark Bradley

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139 comments Add your comment

stevie zero

January 25th, 2011
4:41 pm

jason– i looked at line ten min after end of afc title game and saw gb-2.5 (-120). where did you see pit favored?

Najeh Davenpoop

January 25th, 2011
4:42 pm

Betting lines are not predictions of the game. They are predictions of how people will bet. All this means is that the people setting the lines think they can make the most money with this line, which more or less implies that the general public likes Green Bay in this game.

I’m with you, though. I think this game is a toss up, and if anything Pittsburgh is slightly more likely to win.

coloradobulldog

January 25th, 2011
4:45 pm

Yeah you’d think Steelers would be favorite since they have won Super Bowl in recent years with this QB and pretty much same team. I would not bet against Big Ben, their defense and Troy Polamalu. On another note, can you recall when if ever two 3-4 defenses have been in the Super Bowl? That should be a recruiting ploy for UGA (and BAMA) for the services of players like Ray Drew. Come play the 3-4 because the best teams in NFL do.

Najeh Davenpoop

January 25th, 2011
4:45 pm

I do think the general public underrates Roethlisberger. Whether it’s because of the rape case or because he is more of an improviser and less of a pure pocket guy like Brady or Manning, people don’t rank him in the same place as other QBs with equally impressive resumes. Maybe that is part of the reason the line favors the Packers.

As far as I’m concerned, if the Steelers win this Super Bowl, Ben has to rank right along with Brady based on what he has done in his career.

F-105 Thunderchief

January 25th, 2011
4:46 pm

Apparently, Green Bay has been the hottest team in the history of the NFL since week 13, or so. And, Aaron Rodgers walks on water.

Yeah, I think the Steelers should be favored.

The Grinch

January 25th, 2011
4:48 pm

I don’t often agree with you, Mark, but I have to here. No way GB runs on Pittsburgh; Rogers will have to have the game of is life again. How many of those can he have in a row, especially after two concussions? He looked pretty shaky in the second half in Chicago and Pitt will get to him more. Big Ben is at his best when it counts. I smell 20-14 Pittsburgh.

ron b

January 25th, 2011
4:57 pm

Darnell lighten the color tint on your glasses

SID

January 25th, 2011
5:00 pm

The Pack is Back!!!!!!!!!!!

Nativebird

January 25th, 2011
5:02 pm

When the world watches the abject supreme level in which Aaron Rodgers DIS-ASSEMBLED the (apparently paper-tiger) Atlanta Falcons 2 weeks ago, you CANNOT under-estimate the power of that visual. We (the Falcons) actually were what the experts thought we were….very average and very lucky to have a 13-3 record. The CAVERN between the Packers and the #1 NFC seed in talent, ability, coaching, playmaking was VASTly on display and it is still carrying Green Bay aloft the betting world.

Chazlow Bond

January 25th, 2011
5:06 pm

Brady and Brees took them apart pretty handily. If the Steelers can’t get sufficient pressure the Pack will score too many points. If the game is played tight and ugly probably the Steelers close. Lot of pressure on site and maybe Pitt’s experience is a strong factor in their favor. If I were to bet the $1,000 I’d bet the Pack’s passing attack.

take it from me

January 25th, 2011
5:08 pm

If this game were in Pittsburg, it would be a blow out! Pittsburg wins 35-21. no way packers run or throw on Steelers.

Bill

January 25th, 2011
5:10 pm

“because I think the Steelers are powerful and proven and a Brand Name to boot”. So, Green Bay is not a brand name??

Bodog

January 25th, 2011
5:14 pm

I have been a long time fan of the game, and I too was baffled by the odds posted by the sportsbooks. The sportsbooks have definitely thrown a monkey wrench into our spokes.
They know that they have us all scratchin our heads, asking-WHY? Answer: *Gimmick*
They also know that they will be unindated with heavy hitters placing big green on the dog.
The books have planted the seed, and equally enough will have the naysayers & as usual, the confused grasping for straws.
So, why not bet the fav they ask?…. The Books must know something!!! So, to be Patriotic, I shall answer that question in 9 short words that you can take to the $$$bank$$$!!!
1. Hines Ward 2. The Books will not lose any money.

buck strickland

January 25th, 2011
5:15 pm

The fact that you’re surprised by this mark will probably increase the spread to 5.

You’re not exactly Nostradamus when it comes to picking winners…

gt

January 25th, 2011
5:16 pm

Green Bay has traveled the longest road to get here, on the road no climate advantage. Dallas is played indoors, Green Bay played near a perfect game the last indoor appearance. I think Atlanta is a Pittsburgh town, you have their great receiver playing for Pittsburgh, but the Green Bay I saw play in Atlanta could beat anybody on the field, bad, including Pittsburgh. They are the flavor of the month because they beat the best teams getting to the dance. They beat a really good Atlanta team, kills the local press to say it, but they beat Atlanta at home, beat Philly at home. I really cannot see the Steelers winning this in any angle, though they have another great coaching staff and two weeks to prepare. Any team that can tear us up like they did is a very good football team.

Uttla

January 25th, 2011
5:18 pm

Remember New Orleans, Indy, and Philly were all favored in wildcard. Atlanta and New England were favored in divisional. Maybe the oddsmakers were tired of picking against Greenbay.

teedub

January 25th, 2011
5:20 pm

@Capologist & ACE – not passing judgement at all. I really don’t care about either team. Of course luck/officiating, etc. plays a part in any championship. But the Falcons analogy you made is exactly what I’m talking about. The Falcons weren’t quite as good as their record, IMO, and I think the same can be said for the Steelers. Hence GB being favored.

59bulldawg

January 25th, 2011
5:21 pm

Steelers O-line is neither healthy or deep. Pouncey is questionable and the Pack’s D-line is playing well … especially their NG.

MountainDawg

January 25th, 2011
5:23 pm

I like GB with the better QB, OL, LB corps & DBs.

Passing

January 25th, 2011
5:29 pm

Rodgers will pick the Pitt secondary apart.

ACE

January 25th, 2011
5:32 pm

@teedub-I’m a Steelers fan and I remember us winning a few games two years ago that we should have lost. Every SB winning team has at least 2 games every year they should have lost. The fact that Atlanta was getting those breaks was one of the reasons I thought it would be a Pitts/Atl SB

ACE

January 25th, 2011
5:34 pm

@mountaindawg-The fact that you think GB has better LB’s lets everybody know you are clueless.

pete

January 25th, 2011
5:34 pm

there was actually a line at halftime for gb vs pitt. it was pitt by 1.5 at that time. i guess when pitt let the jets back in it, the line changed.

AK

January 25th, 2011
5:39 pm

Steelers will manhandle gay bay and their fragile qb.
Here we go
31-17

ACE

January 25th, 2011
5:41 pm

@mountaindawg-So you would rather have Clay Matthews, A J Hawk,Desmond Bishop, and Frank Zombo instead of James Harrison, Lamarr Woodley,Lawrence Timmons, and James Farrior? I’ll bet you I win more games with my LB’s

ACE

January 25th, 2011
5:42 pm

@mountain-I hope you don’t get a job as an NFL G.M.

ACE

January 25th, 2011
5:43 pm

This is the same Green Bay team that couldn’t score a TD against the Lions about a month ago

JASon

January 25th, 2011
5:44 pm

“because I think the Steelers are powerful and proven and a Brand Name to boot”

Vegas doesn’t care which team is a brand name. Besides, Green Bay is going to mop the floor with Pittsburgh.

nemov

January 25th, 2011
5:46 pm

The NFC wasn’t very good this season. I’ll be surprised if the Packers keep it within a TD.

JASon

January 25th, 2011
5:46 pm

Hey ACE, you moron, that was without Aaron Rodgers.

Kacy

January 25th, 2011
5:46 pm

VT favored by 3 tonight over GT
I like them hokies. Put 2500 on them.
VT 73
GT 62

ACE

January 25th, 2011
5:47 pm

Attention: Mark
I figured that Brett Keisel’s beard was worth at least 7 points. If you don’t know what I’m talking, google it.

Steve

January 25th, 2011
5:48 pm

GB is a weak azz team
Steelers romp those retard cheese heads by 2 td’s

Reid Adair

January 25th, 2011
5:48 pm

Looking at it before the playoffs started, I would have agreed wholeheartedly with you, Mark.

Looking at it now, after Green Bay has gone on the road to beat Philadelphia, Atlanta and Chicago, I believe they are the better team and should be favored.

ACE

January 25th, 2011
5:51 pm

@jason-Hey thanks for the name calling, it sure seemed warranted. Pitts beat Atlanta,Tenn, and Tampa with a 3rd or 4th string QB. I thought good teams overcame injuries not used them as an excuse. Once again thanks for showing your true age/maturity level

Skeezix

January 25th, 2011
5:52 pm

2 pts.? —basically a wash.

ACE

January 25th, 2011
5:54 pm

Don’t post anything Jason doesn’t agree with or he’ll start name calling. What a great way to deal with an alternate opinion. Why didn’t I think of that?

ron b

January 25th, 2011
5:56 pm

dARNELL TAKE OFF YOUR COLOR TINTED GLASSES

JacketSteve

January 25th, 2011
5:58 pm

The line doesn’t surprise me at all because Green Bay is the flashy, hot team right now. That blowout of Atlanta made them look better than they are. A couple years ago GB and Pittsburgh played a regular season game that was a shootout with Pittsburgh winning on a 15 yd or so TD pass on the final play of the game. It was awesome to watch. Don’t think the Steelers are all defense. They can throw it around and score with anybody. Their wide receivers can fly, and they showed against NYJ that they can run. Ward, Wallace, Brown, Sanders, Heath Miller – Matt Ryan would love to have those guys to throw to. Steelers D keeps Rodgers in check and the offense brings home SB Ring Number 7, Pitt 34 – GB 23. GO STEELERS!!!

Bodog

January 25th, 2011
6:00 pm

Dont forget folks—The Big Hair Man will have a say on the outcome of the game!

dawg4u

January 25th, 2011
6:00 pm

I agree Mark that Pittsburgh should be favored especially since Green Bay was 3-3 in their last 6 games of the regular season and had to intercept a Mike Vick pass in the end zone to beat Philly. I think the reason may be because Pittsburgh has had two bad halves – the first half against Baltimore and the second against the Jets plus Green Bay looked unstoppable against the Falcons in their indoor game. I don’t think any of the other NFC seeded teams (with the possible exception of New Orleans) would be favored over Pittsburgh.

Navigator

January 25th, 2011
6:01 pm

I laugh at some of these post, wait a minute I just laughed at another one. No one knows who’s going to win the super bowl, no matter how arrogant you give your answer and dismiss others. Why are the odds makers picking Green Bay, well it’s probably their defense (especially their pass defense). Although the Steelers have a good defense, it isn’t as good as Green Bay’s. Another item is their receiving corp (which torched the Falcon defense), which is a step quicker than Steelers. I feel the QB’s are about equal what they bring to the game, but in different ways. However, would I be stupid enough to guarantee a win for either, absolutely not. It will probably come down to the last possession of the game.

Rex Ryan

January 25th, 2011
6:02 pm

Okay! I am big loud mouth and a lot of my players are big loudmouths. So why are so many people glad we lost?

Dixiecom

January 25th, 2011
6:02 pm

My wife says that Green bay has the prettier jerseys, & will win.
She is always right too

Dick Cheney

January 25th, 2011
6:04 pm

I like to shoot lawyers in the face.

MajorityOfOne

January 25th, 2011
6:04 pm

I don’t particularly like either team but I pick the Steelers due to their track record in big games. The Steelers always seem to rise to the occasion when all the cards are on the tale. Plus I think the odds are working against the Packers of beating a high quality team for the 4th time in a row. Rodgers proved himself to be a mere mortal against the Bears.

I think it’s one of the best matchups, though, in recent years. Should be a heckuva game.

MajorityOfOne

January 25th, 2011
6:04 pm

woops……That’s table not tale

Dontavius Supremo

January 25th, 2011
6:10 pm

Pitt wins by 17; you saw it here.

Milledegeville, Georgia

January 25th, 2011
6:26 pm

. . . . . go PACKERS . . . . .

It's easy...

January 25th, 2011
6:29 pm

…GB is favored because their QB is still on a roll….as is their defense…

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