An early line on the SEC in 2011, and UGA is … well, not No. 1
With the SEC having generated the BCS titlist five years running, the moral of our story — if indeed morals apply in this cutthroat conference — is this: Win the league, win it all. But that mightn’t be the case come Jan. 9, 2102. (Though the championship game will be played in New Orleans, smack in the heart of SEC country.)
Oklahoma figures to start next season ranked No. 1, and that would be a departure. The past three preseason No. 1’s have hailed from guess where: Georgia in 2008, Florida in 2009, Alabama in 2010. (As we know, none finished No. 1.) Eyeballing it from this distance, the SEC would appear slightly lessened in 2011, but is the Tiffany League ever truly down?
Herewith we offer a look-ahead, the 12 programs ranked in ascending order:
12. Vanderbilt: The Commodores have a new coach. So they’ve got that going for them.
11. Kentucky: The Wildcats seemed onto something when they played Auburn close and beat South Carolina, but they lost four of their final six games. They’ll have a new quarterback in 2011, and Morgan Newton — who started the BBVA Compass Bowl because senior Mike Hartline was suspended — appears a cut below his predecessor.
10. Ole Miss: Wasn’t it only yesterday — actually, it was 2009 — that this team was hailed as a national contender? Nothing has gone right since. Gambling on quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, the defrocked Oregon Duck, enabled the Rebels to win only one SEC game, that against Kentucky. Houston Nutt’s nutty program again appears the least of the SEC West.
9. Tennessee: The Vols have found a quarterback in Tyler Bray, and his emergence enabled them to become bowl-eligible. Now the bad news: Tennessee finished 6-7 and didn’t beat anyone of consequence. Heck, it lost big to …
8. Georgia: Going on returning talent, this ranking is too low. Going on the tenuous state of the program, this ranking might be too high. Some Bulldog fans see Isaiah Crowell, the recruit from Columbus who has yet to commit, as The Next Herschel Walker. I ask: Have we learned nothing in 30 years? There was but one Herschel Walker.
7. Florida: Will Muschamp, the new head coach, is also a rookie head coach. Hiring Charlie Weis as his offensive coordinator will help, but Weis hasn’t seemed half as clever since being separated from Tom Brady. John Brantley, the quarterback of whom much was expected in 2010, is considering transferring — and even Gator backers don’t know if that would be good or bad.
Zach Mettenberger, new to LSU. (AJC photo by Johnny Crawford)
6. Auburn: The national champs will surely lose quarterback Cam Newton and defensive destroyer Nick Fairley to the NFL, and they weren’t just the two best players on their team — they were the two best players in the country. And that’s how it works in the better half of this conference: You can go from No. 1 in the land to No. 5 in the SEC West in the wink of an eye.
5. Mississippi State: The temptation is to put the Bulldogs a notch higher, but two factors mitigate: State lost defensive Manny Diaz to Texas, and the sneak-up factor from 2010 will be gone. Still, if the Bulldogs can win at Auburn on Sept. 10, they’ll face LSU in Starkville on a Thursday night in a cowbell-clamorous game that could propel them into the Top 10.
4. Arkansas: The Razorbacks will take a slight step backward — they reached the Sugar Bowl in Year 3 under Bobby Petrino — only because they’re losing quarterback Ryan Mallett to the NFL draft. But Tyler Wilson seems an able replacement, and Petrino can coach quarterbacks. The downside: Hogs must face Alabama and LSU on the road.
3. South Carolina: The Gamecocks achieved their forever-awaited breakthrough by winning the SEC East. They then lost twice in the Georgia Dome by an aggregate 48 points. The key offensive players return, and Carolina hopes Jadeveon Clowney, the in-state product considered the nation’s No. 1 recruit, will take his talents to Columbia and do for the defense as tailback Marcus Lattimore did for the offense.
2. Alabama: Talent-wise, this is the SEC’s deepest program. But losing three key offensive players — quarterback Greg McElroy, tailback Mark Ingram and wideout Julio Jones — has to have some effect. Doesn’t it?
1. LSU: The SEC West will hinge the Tigers’ Nov. 5 game against Alabama, which will be staged in Tuscaloosa. But LSU, which has struggled for three seasons to find a quarterback, might have two: Jordan Jefferson has begun to settle, and Zach Mettenberger, dismissed from Georgia’s program after his arrest, might wind up starting. And there’s precedent for an SEC champion being quarterbacked by a Georgia native who began at one league program but flourished at another: Cam Newton of Atlanta did it in 2010; might it Mettenberger of Watkinsville in 2011?
By Mark Bradley
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332 comments Add your comment
He Hate Gator
January 12th, 2011
12:56 pm
Gomdawg, if it was just the talent this past season, they shoulda, coulda, woulda been 10-2 to 9-3…
Dirty Harry
January 12th, 2011
12:58 pm
Georgia will win the East! You whinie bunch of punks don’t know jack about football! Most of you sissy punks probably never played football and who think you know something by sitting on your lazy rumps and dreaming that you played! better not let me see punk faces any time soon!
RedGADawg
January 12th, 2011
1:00 pm
Two questions:
1- How many classes did Fairley and Newton take last wemester and hours earned?
2- Are one and dones the future of college football
Appears to me after the recent success of Jr College transfers, the five stars should go JUCO and wait until their third year and go where they are needed most for National Championship run then of to NFL, Newton and Fairley make a mockery of “student athlete”
Score Check
January 12th, 2011
1:06 pm
Any early line on Bradley’s Blogs. 100% his objective is to inflame UGA fans
Ralph
January 12th, 2011
1:07 pm
The former Fulmer Cup winner for whom the “award” arises is ranked one behind Bark Madley’s thUGA pick. Although the thugs on both teams hold them back, this ranking is probably reversed due to home cooking.
Andy
January 12th, 2011
1:10 pm
I agree that you are giving Mettenberger too much credit. Let’s see him play first before we crown him the next great QB.
Real Talk
January 12th, 2011
1:11 pm
I truly think the Bulldogs will suprise people, at least i hope…. @MB do you know when Malcom Mitchell will make his college announcement?!?!
BAMA
January 12th, 2011
1:12 pm
With another year of good ole’ Coach Richt and Georgia will be at # 10 on the list. UGA is fast approaching ACC football caliber play , I mean Big East. What am I saying hell y’all got beat by UCF.
BAMA
January 12th, 2011
1:13 pm
@ Real Talk
He’ll be announcing for Alabama on January 20th
just saying
January 12th, 2011
1:13 pm
some of you dog fans are hate-ing on AU now. another team besides yours have won another championship. so you resort to hate-ing on them. next year you hate on somebody else when they win.but you have all these 5-star players. you really thing a running back is going to solve all your problems. STOP THE HATE
Real Talk
January 12th, 2011
1:18 pm
@BAMA you may be right, i think that bama leads for him. I just hope that Jay Rome can convince him to come to uga
Geaux Tigers
January 12th, 2011
1:22 pm
I like it. Geaux Tigers!!! Cannot wait for next season!!!
Geaux Tigers
January 12th, 2011
1:23 pm
I love me some Les Miles!!!! He’s the reason why most top recruits list LSU in their top 5 year in and year out. Oh and the fact that we’ve won 2 BCS Titles!!!!!
bjohndawg
January 12th, 2011
1:24 pm
Plenty of talent left. So hey lets not WALLOW.
RICHT is the coach. so lets project based on the know things
1) plenty of talent left on offense
2) extra year under belt running the defense
3) easier schedule
4) Fire under the coaches butt….succeed this year or else
I am looking for a EAST championship and play in SEC title
Anything less…disappointed again.
GO DAWGS!
JB
January 12th, 2011
1:28 pm
The first two games will be huge for the newly studied and refreshed HC at Georgia. If they do things different and surprise those folks in the first two games, they could win them and make something happen Things Different. 1. Block, give the RB’s a chance 2. Throw away dated offensive game plan that our wife’s can call before they happen.3. Put in 15 plays from the spread formation and let this kid from Wilcox county be involved in them all. 4. Plug the damn middle of that defense.6. A little luck.
1eyedJack
January 12th, 2011
1:30 pm
I don’t see UGA winning the SEC in 2102 Mark. What does our schedule look like that year? As we are all aware the world will end on Dec. 21, 2012, so we will have to forfeit those 2102 games.
Carlton
January 12th, 2011
1:30 pm
Personally, I think UGA’s going to be fine-Even if Ealey and King take backseat to Crowell (considering he commits to the Dawgs) and Ken Malcome (a very physical runner between the tackles-redshirt frosh next year too), the running game will be fine. As well, not having AJ Green on the team now will actually help the Dawgs I believe because now Bobo and Richt will have to find ways to utilize ALL their weapons rather than just #8 (look at the facts: UGA last year, 1-4 without AJ, 5-2 with him..that tells me Richt and Bobo relied to heavily on him to produce rater than ALL the great recruits they’ve had over the past couple years). Receivers will be fine without AJ there also. Wooten, King and Brown have all shown flashes of what we thought they were coming out of high school but have been overshadowed and underused because of #8. Orson Charles should be utilized more as not only a 3rd down and medium receiver but also the “hybrid” slot receiver Richt and Bobo have tried to use him as. AND, if we get Jay Rome as another tight end who can play from the start, we’ll be set at that position. The O-line will be fine (most all are returning except two). Murray will also be even better next season now that he knows what he’s up against in the SEC (AND I believe we’ll beat Florida..you know that’s the one game Murray is looking forward to the most and we have an off week before the UF game next year).
The defense will get better in it’s second year in the 3-4. The players know the system now better and know what’s expected of them. Our secondary will consist of Branden Smith (gets better every year at corner), Alec Ogletree (came on strong in his freshman year), Damian Swann (highly recruited CB who wants to help turn the UGA program around)/Brandon Boykin (if he decides to come back)..the only question is the other safety (Commings is gone).
The linebackers will be bolstered by Jones and Samuel playing and if Justin Houston returns (which I think he should/will-his stock can only go up more from here) we will be dominate against the run. The D Line desperately needs a Nose Tackle but we’re still in the running for the big JUCO target Jenkins and if we get him, we will be set..I predict Dawgs will go a surprising 10-2 with losses occurring either against South Carolina (a home game for the Dawgs), Boise State (basically a home game), or Auburn (another home game-and one you KNOW the Dawgs want to win after what happened this past year). The Dawgs schedule is actually very favorable to make a surprising run when you look at all components. They don’t play Bama or LSU either and all their big game are at home or neutral (UF, Boise basically a home game).
And I agree with LSU being first. IF an SEC team goes to the NC next year, it will be Bama or LSU (LSU really loses no one this season except Patrick Peterson). SEC Championship will be Bama/LSU vs. South Carolina/UGA I predict. UF and AU will both be down (UF for a new coach, AU because if they lose Cam and Fairley they will be anemic on both sides of the ball).
Melvin Campbell
January 12th, 2011
1:31 pm
I say, bring back my son, Marion, to be the next HC. He did not have enough time as an advisor last time. Glory, glory. Class of “ought 9″.
JB
January 12th, 2011
1:32 pm
just saying……………..I hate it, but you are right. We have no ‘game” in Athens right now, so all we can do is pick at the successful programs and tell you stories about ‘when” in Athens. Hopefully, we’ll be back.
SOUTH GA DAWG FAN
January 12th, 2011
1:44 pm
I think 8th is a little high , I am pretty sure it is with the current state of the Dawgs.
GO DAWGS !!
Mark Richt has to go
January 12th, 2011
1:45 pm
Boise State 70, UGA 13.
JB
January 12th, 2011
1:46 pm
Rivals just posted their final 1-120 2010 rankings….Dawgs finished 51 st…….. Something to proud of I guess. A notch above Ga. Tech and Tennessee in year 10 of his Tenure.
Monkey Says
January 12th, 2011
1:52 pm
Mark,
Look at the SEC Schedule grid and you will see that LSU is going to have road games that will provide some very possible loss opportunites throughout the 2011 season, they have Oregon, Miss. St, Alabama, Tennessee, and Ole Miss on the road and Arkansas and Florida at home
. Alabama has 2 road games that will pose problems at Florida, and Miss. St.
South Carolina has UGA, Miss.St, UT, and Arkansas on the road for possible losses.
Arkansas is at Alabama early on the road, Ole Miss in the middle and at LSU late, by far the easiest road SEC schedule.
Miss. St has Auburn early, UGA in the middle, Kentucky and Arkansas late on the road, and Alabama at home.
Florida has Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Auburn in 4 weeks with 3 of those on the road.
Auburn has Miss. St at home real early, on the road at Clemson, at South Carolina, at Arkansas, Florida at home, LSU on the road, at Georgia, and Alabama at home, they lose too many players and their playmaker Newton.
Georgia has Boise St, which will set the tone early, win means big year confidence wise, close loss means they still believe, a bad loss and the ship sailed in Memphis, they get USC at home another pivotal game, at Ole Miss and Houston Nutt is desperate to win to save his job too, a fast rising Miss. St team at home, at Tennessee and the home of a DOOLEY, at Vandy never a real easy game for UGA on the road with big games coming up, Florida in Jacksonville( need we say more?) Auburn at home(payback?) and Kentucky at home, then Tech in Atlanta.
Tennesseee has no one early, (Cincy) the on the road to Florida, then UGA, LSU, Alabama, South Carolilna with the only road game in Tuscaloosa, then later at Arkansas and at Kentucky.
These road games are killers in the middle of the season, and with that being said, you can flip flop or keep LSU and Alabama at 1 and 2, Miss. St is the riser, Arkansas can jump up past USC, Florida will fall in line behind USC, Georgia can either be a much improved team and be the surprise of 2011 or fall flat and never get up, Tenneseee has too many tough tough games but a good deal at home and they can come in either behind UGA or in front of the Dawgs, then the rest of the pack is Auburn who will need to find a new identity, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Vandy…
Depth is everything in this league and replacing a good player with a good player will keep you in the game and race, lose a great player and most of the time the wheels fall off.
Astropig
January 12th, 2011
1:53 pm
Georgia has 6 “baked in” wins next year (Coastal Carolina, Vandy , Kentucky , New Mexico State and Ole Miss),so we really can’t judge next year on those pretty sure wins. The other 6 games will tell the tale on CMR. That said, its critical to remember that the TIMING of those games is important. If the Doggies start off 1-2 ( A distinct possibility), the sharks will begin circling and “sources close to the program” will start speculating about Richt’s future,thus changing the whole dynamic of the season. If it looks like Richt will walk the plank,will the seniors pack it in,thus making the freefall worse ? Will recruits start to publicly ask about Richt’s removal ? If bthe Pups are eliminated from the east race early (after the Tennessee game for instance),would the administration make a move to reassure recruits and players in the program that there will be changes ? Again, the dynamic changes based on the first 3-4 weeks of the season. Boise will be HUGE.
shankit
January 12th, 2011
1:59 pm
Georgia currently has 40 players in the NFL
Alabama has 26
Auburn has 29
Just sayin’
Sports Review
January 12th, 2011
2:00 pm
[...] Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) [...]
Monkey Says
January 12th, 2011
2:03 pm
shankit,
do you think those numbers are turning and turning pretty fast the last couple of years in favor of Alabama, Auburn and Florida ?
I think so.
Auburn Guy
January 12th, 2011
2:03 pm
Hey Dawg A. Auburn has three undefeated seasons in the past 17 years + a NC. How well do your little Doggiedoos match up to that?!!! Very clever pun on ” scampionship ” too, btw. Clearly it must take unprecedented genius to come up with such a gem. You must be so very, very pleased with yourself. I stand in awe of your creativity.
Johnny Cash
January 12th, 2011
2:04 pm
What momma would name her son Fran? Sue?
shankit
January 12th, 2011
2:06 pm
Auburn Guy
And that includes the last five years???
DawginLex
January 12th, 2011
2:06 pm
Just heard a rumor we just lost another player.
Anybody know?
Delbert D.
January 12th, 2011
2:06 pm
Teams that bombed* in 2010:
[Preseason AP rankings]
#4 Florida
#5 Texas
#13 Miami(FL)
#15 Pittsburgh
#16 Ga. Tech
#18 North Carolina
#23 Georgia
#24 Oregon St.
*bombed = ranked teams that received no votes in final AP poll
Delbert D.
January 12th, 2011
2:10 pm
Schools with 30 or more players in the NFL
LSU 45
Miami 45
Texas 43
Ohio St 41
USC 41
Georgia 40
Notre Dame 38
Tennessee 38
Florida 36
Cal 33
Michigan 33
Oklahoma 32
FSU 31
North Carolina 31
Iowa 30
Nebraska 30
Delbert D.
January 12th, 2011
2:13 pm
Schools with 20 – 29 players in the NFL
If I miscounted, sorry. Double-checked it. Raw source – ESPN
Maryland 29
Penn St 29
Auburn 28
Purdue 27
Alabama 26
Mich St 25
Ga. Tech 24
Virginia 24
BC 23
Mississippi 23
Oregon 23
Arizona St 22
UCLA 22
Va. Tech 22
Wisconsin 22
Illinois 21
Oregon St 21
Pitt 21
Utah 21
Clemson 20
Fresno St 20
S. Carolina 20
dawgfan
January 12th, 2011
2:15 pm
Auburn will win 9 games AT MOST in ‘11.
LSU is overrated.
One of two things will happen with the Will Muschamp/Charlie Weis experiment at Florida: It will be a huge success or a huge embarassing failure. There will be no in between.
Georgia will go 6-6 again and Mark Richt will be fired the day after he beats Tech…again.
Alabama will win the SEC but with 2 losses won’t make the BCS title game.
South Carolina will be exposed as the one hit wonder poser that anyone with a brain knows it is.
Thanks.
SEC Fact Finder
January 12th, 2011
2:15 pm
Here is my humble opinion of the outcome, with many many news reports, recruits, coaching changes and off the field issues still to come.
East
South Carolina
Florida
Georgia
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
West
Alabama
Miss. St.
Arkansas
LSU
Auburn
Ole Miss
Overall
Alabama
Miss. St.
Arkansas/LSU
USC
Florida
Georgia
Auburn
Tennessee
Kentucky
Ole Miss
Vanderbilt
Good Luck to all your teams.
Monkey says
January 12th, 2011
2:19 pm
dawgfan,
Where would those 9 wins come from? If so.
I see only 7 at most and that may be generous…their road schedule, player losses, playmakers lost, and now with the target placed squarely on their backs it is just harder to win after an SEC title or National Title.
Say What!
January 12th, 2011
2:21 pm
Listen Gene will purchase another QB and be right back in the mix.
Here’s my long range projection ( I said Tuberville would be fired in 3 after going 13-0, he was fired in 4). Gene Sham Chizik will not start the 2015 season at Auburn. Even Auburn fans know that if not for Scam and the bad call in the NC game this team would not be national champs. Remember OR scored 8 to Auburn’s 6 in the second half and Sham fumbled on the previous drive.
Steve
January 12th, 2011
2:21 pm
No matter how you look at it, South Carolina loses games it should win on a consistent basis, year in and year out. Until that changes, along with their year end bowl game “FAIL”, they’re nothing but poseurs.
Monkey says
January 12th, 2011
2:22 pm
The Boise St game is going to be the key game in Georgia’s 2011 season. They need to play the game very close and win close or lose close. If they win against Boise St. they will beat USC at home and go onto a good season,not great season because of the current talent level in Athens is not was his has been in the past.
PHIL
January 12th, 2011
2:24 pm
SC has it’s QB back, that means at least 3 losses just from him.
But Bradley I want to know why you didn’t answer Go Braves on the first page. Is it because he is correct?
BAMA
January 12th, 2011
2:27 pm
For all the DAWG fans who keep bringing up the players in the NFL let me ask y’all something. How many of those players have an NCAA championship ring ? If the point of getting talent to the NFL but not winning with them in college then UGA is doing great. Check the trophy case on campus and see how many trophies are in there for “most players in the NFL” and hell y’all can’t even win that. Richt’s a joke and I hope the DAWGS realize that before Vanderbilt passes them by.
Tennessee Twink
January 12th, 2011
2:28 pm
Just a reminder:
It took a reciever from Miss. St dropping two passes inside the 30 yard line against Auburn in the last 2 minutes of the game.
A last second field goal to beat Kentucky on the road
A booth review not overturned in the LSU game, the Arkansas game.
A late drive to beat a USC team that collapsed in Auburn
A meltdown by Alabama.
Multiple “no calls” in the UGA game..
The NCAA not applying the rules have they did for the past 30 years when it comes to amateurism rules.
The cards fell right into Auburn’s lap.
secbama
January 12th, 2011
2:30 pm
Vols get 7-8 wins Symrna man? Try just to beat a team with a winning record first, pal. And tell Dooley to have his showboats cut out the ‘throatslash and loco’ gestures, they look like absolute fools. Act like you’ve been there before.
SEC West dominates again. Bama, LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn will battle it out. MSU overated, won’t sneak up on anyone. SEC East goes to Florida next year.
Clowney is Bama-bound.
hotbobby
January 12th, 2011
2:32 pm
I hope LSU in not on our schedule next year!
Auburn Guy
January 12th, 2011
2:33 pm
Shankit: Auburn’s been playing football for a lot longer than the past five years. 2007 and 2008 were down years, like any program has ( See Georgia Bulldogs 2009 and 2010 ). Auburn has two SEC championships and a National Championship since 2004. What do the “Dawgs” have to show for in that time span? That’s right: Nothing. So let’s get off of this business of Dawgies trying to make themselves feel better by claiming Auburn has always been mediocre. Historically that is simply not the case and quite ironic since the Dawgs are mediocre themselves these days. Btw, when was the last time a Georgia Bulldog team was undefeated? I know the answer. Just checking to see if you do.
dawgster
January 12th, 2011
2:42 pm
Well here’s some interesting news…Bama’s O-line coach appears to be retiring and guess what name is being mentioned as a possible replacement…Stacy Searles…him and Saban were together at LSU…just though i would pass the info along…maybe some others have additional info..but i’ll be anxious to see how the Bama and Dawg fans take that since there has been so much made of Searles inability, based on these blogs, to coach up our O-line….
Delbert D.
January 12th, 2011
2:45 pm
“A meltdown by Alabama.”
Where there is a meltdown, there is a fire.
dawgfan
January 12th, 2011
2:49 pm
I don’t know Monkey says. I’d like to think my Dawgs will smack them in the mouth for acting like punks this past season, but there probably isn’t much chance for that given Richt’s “its just another game” approach to coaching SEC football. It used to work but now its just weak.
Paul "The Genius" Johnson
January 12th, 2011
2:53 pm
Mark — This is becoming a daily ritual, but I am obliged to pass along my thanks again for ignoring the egg I laid this year and ignoring the bowl loss. Still, not one column from you or Jeff about how miserable of ending the 2010 campaign was. Thanks for keeping all of the attention on the coach he beat me yet again. I couldn’t do it without your brother!! Keep up the good work. Toodles!!