An early line on the SEC in 2011, and UGA is … well, not No. 1
With the SEC having generated the BCS titlist five years running, the moral of our story — if indeed morals apply in this cutthroat conference — is this: Win the league, win it all. But that mightn’t be the case come Jan. 9, 2102. (Though the championship game will be played in New Orleans, smack in the heart of SEC country.)
Oklahoma figures to start next season ranked No. 1, and that would be a departure. The past three preseason No. 1’s have hailed from guess where: Georgia in 2008, Florida in 2009, Alabama in 2010. (As we know, none finished No. 1.) Eyeballing it from this distance, the SEC would appear slightly lessened in 2011, but is the Tiffany League ever truly down?
Herewith we offer a look-ahead, the 12 programs ranked in ascending order:
12. Vanderbilt: The Commodores have a new coach. So they’ve got that going for them.
11. Kentucky: The Wildcats seemed onto something when they played Auburn close and beat South Carolina, but they lost four of their final six games. They’ll have a new quarterback in 2011, and Morgan Newton — who started the BBVA Compass Bowl because senior Mike Hartline was suspended — appears a cut below his predecessor.
10. Ole Miss: Wasn’t it only yesterday — actually, it was 2009 — that this team was hailed as a national contender? Nothing has gone right since. Gambling on quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, the defrocked Oregon Duck, enabled the Rebels to win only one SEC game, that against Kentucky. Houston Nutt’s nutty program again appears the least of the SEC West.
9. Tennessee: The Vols have found a quarterback in Tyler Bray, and his emergence enabled them to become bowl-eligible. Now the bad news: Tennessee finished 6-7 and didn’t beat anyone of consequence. Heck, it lost big to …
8. Georgia: Going on returning talent, this ranking is too low. Going on the tenuous state of the program, this ranking might be too high. Some Bulldog fans see Isaiah Crowell, the recruit from Columbus who has yet to commit, as The Next Herschel Walker. I ask: Have we learned nothing in 30 years? There was but one Herschel Walker.
7. Florida: Will Muschamp, the new head coach, is also a rookie head coach. Hiring Charlie Weis as his offensive coordinator will help, but Weis hasn’t seemed half as clever since being separated from Tom Brady. John Brantley, the quarterback of whom much was expected in 2010, is considering transferring — and even Gator backers don’t know if that would be good or bad.
Zach Mettenberger, new to LSU. (AJC photo by Johnny Crawford)
6. Auburn: The national champs will surely lose quarterback Cam Newton and defensive destroyer Nick Fairley to the NFL, and they weren’t just the two best players on their team — they were the two best players in the country. And that’s how it works in the better half of this conference: You can go from No. 1 in the land to No. 5 in the SEC West in the wink of an eye.
5. Mississippi State: The temptation is to put the Bulldogs a notch higher, but two factors mitigate: State lost defensive Manny Diaz to Texas, and the sneak-up factor from 2010 will be gone. Still, if the Bulldogs can win at Auburn on Sept. 10, they’ll face LSU in Starkville on a Thursday night in a cowbell-clamorous game that could propel them into the Top 10.
4. Arkansas: The Razorbacks will take a slight step backward — they reached the Sugar Bowl in Year 3 under Bobby Petrino — only because they’re losing quarterback Ryan Mallett to the NFL draft. But Tyler Wilson seems an able replacement, and Petrino can coach quarterbacks. The downside: Hogs must face Alabama and LSU on the road.
3. South Carolina: The Gamecocks achieved their forever-awaited breakthrough by winning the SEC East. They then lost twice in the Georgia Dome by an aggregate 48 points. The key offensive players return, and Carolina hopes Jadeveon Clowney, the in-state product considered the nation’s No. 1 recruit, will take his talents to Columbia and do for the defense as tailback Marcus Lattimore did for the offense.
2. Alabama: Talent-wise, this is the SEC’s deepest program. But losing three key offensive players — quarterback Greg McElroy, tailback Mark Ingram and wideout Julio Jones — has to have some effect. Doesn’t it?
1. LSU: The SEC West will hinge the Tigers’ Nov. 5 game against Alabama, which will be staged in Tuscaloosa. But LSU, which has struggled for three seasons to find a quarterback, might have two: Jordan Jefferson has begun to settle, and Zach Mettenberger, dismissed from Georgia’s program after his arrest, might wind up starting. And there’s precedent for an SEC champion being quarterbacked by a Georgia native who began at one league program but flourished at another: Cam Newton of Atlanta did it in 2010; might it Mettenberger of Watkinsville in 2011?
By Mark Bradley
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332 comments Add your comment
Mark Bradley
January 12th, 2011
12:03 pm
Not sure Auburn will fall further than No. 5 in a six-team division.
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Old Dawg
January 12th, 2011
12:03 pm
Everything for UGA depends on the first two games. If they can break even, or survive with their confidence intact, the Dawgs might have a decent season. It’s really too early and too difficult to predict before those games are played.
DDPO
January 12th, 2011
12:03 pm
James wilder is the next Richard Samuel (RB to LB).. I hope Samuel does well at LB, outstanding young man, will make a helluva citizen in the real world
HOW IS THIS RELEVANT TO THIS TOPIC?
He’s verbally committed to FSU…
Ted M
January 12th, 2011
12:04 pm
Why hasn’t Newton declared for the draft yet?
Sandman053
January 12th, 2011
12:04 pm
MB don’t be mean and bring up math on a sports blog.lol
Not Don Waddell
January 12th, 2011
12:04 pm
I like Tennessee to step it way up, probably second in the East. They have some promising OL and the Bray kid has a rocket. All the skill folks are back, and the felon at safety will be the best defensive player in the SEC next year, Janzen Jackson.
UGA is probably about a 6-6 team again. Should kick both the lazy RB’s off the team, but Richt is scared he will not have anybody left to run the ball. Offensive line is lazy. The entire program is just lazy, no work ethic, no dedication. Doubt that changes.
Sandman053
January 12th, 2011
12:05 pm
not only that but Samuel was a LB in HS then went to RB (stupid stupid move) and now is back where he belongs and should excel.
Mark Bradley
January 12th, 2011
12:05 pm
He has until Jan. 15, Ted M.
Ted M
January 12th, 2011
12:08 pm
it is and we know he’s a Seminole. I’m just looking forward to seeing him play. UGA used to be “Tailback U” we should’ve got him.
Ted M
January 12th, 2011
12:09 pm
Thats right around the corner.
Dawg A
January 12th, 2011
12:09 pm
mark…. What do you think is best case scenario for the Dawgs and what is more likely?
Bradley nemesis
January 12th, 2011
12:09 pm
Mark -
GET SOMETHING ELSE TO WRITE ABOUT THAN THE CONSTANT GEORGIA AND MARK RICHT BASHING. Write about something, anything other than your hatred of Mark Richt. It is everyday and it is getting old….real old…real played…..You will owe Mark Richt an apology when we win the SEC East next year. Worst sports writer not just at the AJC, but in the entire southeast.
Sandman053
January 12th, 2011
12:11 pm
Ted two problems with “Tailback U”. #1 Bobo bein an ex QB who loves to throw the ball and a QB playing well in a pass-first offense. #2 our OL couldn’t open a hole for Herschel to run through much less the tippy toed backs we have now. I think that aspect will get some work this season with the success of Dyer, Lattimore, etc. We’ll see. Go Dawgs!
Paul ( You doesn't have to call me Johnson)
January 12th, 2011
12:11 pm
Ole Miss came very close to beating LSU this year. The excessive celebration flag killed their win.
Tennessee actually beat LSU but couldn’t count the number of players on the field on the last play of the game and LSU got a second chance to win.
With the exception of Vanderbuilt and Kentucky, every team in the SEC has a chance to play for the BCS title next year, even UGA
Ted M
January 12th, 2011
12:11 pm
Who wants to take a stab at the state of the offensive line? Oops, sorry for the violent rhetoric.
Sandman053
January 12th, 2011
12:12 pm
lol Ted if you let Hamilton take a stab at it they’d be fine..we all know “hitman” can’t hit anything
Fire Bradley!
January 12th, 2011
12:13 pm
Who votes to fire Bradley?!
Any sports writer that can’t get off the same subject over and over and over and over again..
Time to call him “Rainman”….
“Woppner on in 5 minutes….Woppner on in 5 minutes…..Fire Mark Richt…Fire Mark Richt….Fire Mark Richt…”
The obsessiveness that Bradley is showing is scary….
Mark Bradley
January 12th, 2011
12:14 pm
Best case for UGA: Dogs beat South Carolina and win the East.
Worst case: Dogs finish fourth in the East.
Dawgaholic
January 12th, 2011
12:14 pm
Mark Bradley
Please stop with the negative CMR columns from now on. I realize this one has nothing to do with this but I am sick and tired of people coming down so hard..we live in an era that people are so freaking inpatient and lack the knowledge and wisdom of how life works… Yeah the program has slipped into Avg. Guess what? It will get right back to the top too!! Just as fast!! But people want it right now..just like their freaking credit cards , they have to have it right NOW. This is why your AVG idiot and there are Many on here , are in Debt. This is why we freak out with our win totals for 2 to 3 years. I am fed up with this nonsense fan and your instigating of these matters. Write an article how you believe he will turn it around once again.. The game hasn’t passed him by. He will make everyone EAT THEIR CROW as he turns it around..Please people, save your money , be patient for your materials , be patient for your wins..they will come..then the media will write how great he is again…
Buck Commander
January 12th, 2011
12:16 pm
Bradley nemesis, its a little early in the day to be hitting the liquor bottle unless you never stopped last night.
Lowell
January 12th, 2011
12:16 pm
Mark, nope!
E.J. Manuel the next Newton. Noles roll in 2011!
Worm
January 12th, 2011
12:16 pm
Another transfer from an SEC school-Mettenberger leads LSU to the National title..I see a trend here.
atltiger15
January 12th, 2011
12:18 pm
There is no doubt AU will drop next year. We’re still building a foundation that was depleted when Tubbs decided to not recruit.I’ve said since day 1 of Chizik’s arrival this will take 3 to 5 years to get uswhere we want to be.It was very important who he hires. He asked Trooper who was his toughest competition when we was on the road recruiting. If they fit his principles in coaching he went after them. AU will throw the ball around more next year but the playmakers are the same. Several true freshman played on the defensive side because ofthe depth issues but will only get better. I like yhe direction. It takes time
reebok
January 12th, 2011
12:22 pm
i think Tennessee is probably going to be better than Georgia next season. Georgia’s only a couple of bad losses from totally imploding…i think Richt has lost the team.
atltiger15
January 12th, 2011
12:23 pm
DDPO
Take a look at TED M post at 11:51 and you’ll see. Read comments and you might have an idea what we’re talking about
Mark Bradley
January 12th, 2011
12:24 pm
I remain a skeptic on the Vols.
Bradley nemesis
January 12th, 2011
12:26 pm
Buck Commander -
The only drinking going on around here is you…drinking Bradley’s bathwater…
DTC
January 12th, 2011
12:28 pm
Mark Bradley, you are such a negative individual against the SEC. Who saw Auburn turning out to be the NC this year? They started off ranked in the 20’s. I am a state of Georgia fan, with an ever increasing lean to UGA.
I am not an Auburn fan, but, they came out of nowhere. It is un-common for the SEC to be down as much as it was this year, yet, the SEC claims its 5th NC in a row. Do I think it will continue? I have no idea. We do not know how FL, AL,or LSU is going to turn out to be next year. Whoever has the best defense in the SEC is going to be the one to watch for. Offenses come from everywhere and in all kinds of forms, but when a good SEC offense gets a hold of someone, the offense knows the SEC has gotten a hold of them. Just ask Oregon.
For some odd reason, I think LSU has the potential to be pretty good next year. All anyone did was gripe all year long about how bad they were, yet they had a pretty good year and then beat an equally ranked team 41-24. This kid from GA, going to LSU is going to be highly motivated to clean up his screw-up, and a good offensive year will do that.
Is UGA going to be in contention for the NC? It would have to be an act of God for that to happen, which is not out of the question, but not likely.
Also, if I am not mistaken, your last article of the year of 2010 was an apology for all of your predictions being so wrong for the entire year. How in the world someone can be so wrong so often and excel at what they do, I have no idea. Yet here we are, having this discussion about your opinions that are so wrong so often.
Go Dawgs!
bamaguy
January 12th, 2011
12:30 pm
I have always said if you finish the season number one, you remain there until someone beats you. I saw Auburn play two games in person (Bama and the SEC championship) and I saw a lot more talent than just Newton and Fairley. My prediction is that Alabama and Auburn will play each other for a berth in the Championship game. The East is a toss up.
And Congratulations to the Auburn Tigers. Two consecutive national championships at two different schools in the same State. Sweet Home Alabama.
JDawg
January 12th, 2011
12:30 pm
Bradley, Delta is ready when you are! I’m sorry but your ability to direct your fingers to the correct keys on a keyboard has so much to be desired. If AJC finds value with you………Good for them! You are somewhat entertaining (I suppose that is a good choice of words for your journalism). I don’t know ……..I really don’t………fair weather folks if I have ever seen them connected to UGA………and to bring Tarkington to the table for comment……well, I guess that just says it all. Here’s a quarter. You know the rest of the story…….
DTC
January 12th, 2011
12:31 pm
The sad thing about the Vols is most everyone wants Coach Dooley to succeed in the SEC, but why in the world did he have to go to TN?
Herschel Talker
January 12th, 2011
12:31 pm
MB:
The guy asked for your best and your most likely scenario. You gave best and worst. What do you think is most likely? I, of course, think it’s 5th in the East, since we have such a clown as coach. What say you?
FIRE MARK RICHT
HT
Mark Bradley
January 12th, 2011
12:32 pm
I think Georgia will finish third in the East.
DTC
January 12th, 2011
12:33 pm
That should be “when a good SEC defense gets a hold of someone”. Sorry.
Sandman053
January 12th, 2011
12:35 pm
DTC lol I had to read that twice, but very articulate post. I agree about defense being the key. I keep saying I think Jenkins will be a huge get for us if he pulls the trigger.
Buck Commander
January 12th, 2011
12:37 pm
Hey Bradley nemesis, since CMR is going to start studying the way SEC football is played now instead of years ago and trying to re-learn that lost art of winning football games why dont you go down there and help him out. I’m sure with all that stored-up football knowledge you have in that pea sized brain of yours you can have CMR and UGA in the NC game next year.
Christopher
January 12th, 2011
12:37 pm
The good thing about this ranking is that it means… absolutely nothing. It’s just a reflection of where things ended this year and the departure of Scam Newton from Fraudburn.
Girl Dawg
January 12th, 2011
12:39 pm
There is other talent on the team we had that talent in 2010 someone just needed to tell CMR. Sadly he focuses on one player one player only this year being AJ and forgets the rest of the team and does not really utilize them. I will say it over and over CMR punted 4 games gave them up waiting for AJ. He appeared to have no clue what to do or how to change the game plan and did not seem to want to. So why are we expected to not give up on him? I feel for the upcoming team even if you have talent your home may be the sidelines.
TimeforChange
January 12th, 2011
12:40 pm
Bradley you have UGA ranked too high and UF too. Richt has lost this program, he is Dead Man Walking.
Dream Catcher
January 12th, 2011
12:45 pm
The Georgia fans who are still whining about Newton and Fairley should look at Chip Kelly’s remark about Dyer’s run. I am not sure where Auburn will be next year, but I am pretty sure that Chizik and Auburn will finish ahead of Richt and UGA.
Forrest Gump
January 12th, 2011
12:46 pm
Coach Richt, the first thing about football is you carry the football across the goal line. I can’t rememba the second thing.
mint berry crunch
January 12th, 2011
12:47 pm
Go Gamecocks! Beat Jaw-Jaw and give them what they want- a new coach! If 0-2 hits for UGA next year, that will be when critical mass is met. Me, I hope he stays, just like I was for keeping Donnan and Goff! That’s the honest truth from a rival fan who lives in ga and watches/listens to almost every UGA game. UGA is now below SC, I never thought it would happen! Yea!
Herschel Talker
January 12th, 2011
12:47 pm
MB:
Should UGA finishing third in the East merit Mr. Richt keeping his job? What say you?
HT
Buck Commander
January 12th, 2011
12:48 pm
Forrest Gump, that was a good one.
AU Liberal in ATL
January 12th, 2011
12:51 pm
Not Waddell, why must you make a total fool of yourself everytime you touch your keyboard? Why, why, why?
AU Liberal in ATL
January 12th, 2011
12:52 pm
And same question to you, Christopher.
7576dawg
January 12th, 2011
12:52 pm
Bradley , you may have to revive your rankings if we are 0-2 or 2-0.
Gratefuldawghead
January 12th, 2011
12:54 pm
The truth hurts and Bradley is right…everyone but Richt sees this.
gomdawg
January 12th, 2011
12:54 pm
BITCH, BITCH, BITCH that’s all you so call Dawgs fans are doing, if you can not look at our 2011 team and see talent there is something wrong with you.