With Lee again a Phil, are the Braves playing for the wild card?
Those were the days, my friends. We thought they'd never end. (AJC file photo)
Whenever Bobby Cox was asked last winter about the Phillies’ acquisition of Roy Halladay, he had the same answer: “At least they don’t have [Cliff] Lee.”
Your attention, please: Now they do. And this would seem a propitious moment not to be managing a team that has to play the Phillies 18 times a season. Which means Cox timed his retirement pretty doggone well.
The Phillies rocked the ol’ world Monday night, coming from far off the pace to land the biggest prize of this free-agent class. Lee was supposed to be bound for the Bronx, where every big-ticket ballplayer eventually lands, or back to Texas, scene of his most recent success. Instead he’s going to the Phillies, which not so long ago shipped him to Seattle because they couldn’t afford both Halladay and Lee.
Now they’ve got Halladay and Lee. And Cole Hamels. And Roy Oswalt.
This isn’t just the finest rotation in contemporary baseball; it’s the best the sport has seen since the era of Glavine and Smoltz and Maddux and Avery/Neagle. Those Braves won every division title by outpitching everybody else. The Phillies, who have already taken the past four NL East titles, should outpitch everybody now and for the foreseeable future.
This doesn’t mean the Braves have no chance. It’s baseball. Stuff happens. But even in weirdo baseball the one thing that can override all else is starting pitching. The Braves’ rotation — Hudson, Hanson, Lowe, Jurrjens and maybe Mike Minor — will be very good. The Phillies’ will be better than good. Anyone inclined to pick the Braves to win the East in 2011 has just had a re-think.
It’s the old Braves’ formula: You win over the long haul because your Nos. 3 and 4 starters are better than everybody else’s. And there’s another Braves’ precedent at play: An already-good rotation became the greatest ever because the biggest free-agent pitcher of the era took less money than the Yankees were offering to become a Brave.
And now Cliff Lee has done as Greg Maddux did 18 Decembers ago. And now a pretty decent Braves’ offseason pales in comparison. Good thing there’s the wild card, huh?
By Mark Bradley
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175 comments Add your comment
Go Ducks!
December 15th, 2010
6:23 am
Trade Lowe— get a right bat and lefty starter!
kral
December 15th, 2010
6:45 am
Loved that I do not think Jurr is better..make that deal in a min. sure glad your not our GM markie..Christmas wish list..Chipper hits 20.. Uggla hits 30…Jey Hey hits 25.. Prady hits .325..Freeman hits .270 with 15 dingers… Gonzalez hits 15.. Mcann his usual..hanson wins 18, ,jurr wins 15, Kimbrel saves 30, huddy wins 15, and lowe wins 15 and the rest of the bullpen matches last year
bravesfan
December 15th, 2010
7:50 am
Does anyone know how much longer Liberty Media needs to hold onto the Braves before they can collect their $100 million tax break on Time Warner stock, which was why they acquired the team in the first place?
Trivia question: how many MLB teams have corporate, as opposed to individual ownership? Ans.: 3
GT
December 15th, 2010
7:58 am
Lee sure didn’t help Texas against San Francisco. I think Jason Werth ,being gone, negates a lot more that has been mentioned. The one player that lit us up was Werth. Philly’s get pitching heavy and they loss bats, it is a hard combo to complete.
GT
December 15th, 2010
8:00 am
Washington will make a dramatic move either next year or the year after. They are starting to pool some talent.
Thomas
December 15th, 2010
8:03 am
Wild Card??? They won’t make the playoffs.
fredi
December 15th, 2010
8:59 am
I’m tired of hearing how Braves fans aren’t as passionate as Philly fans because they sell out games, blah, blah, blah…… That’s pure bologna!!!! The Braves are ranked as the 3rd most popular team in baseball (Yanks and RedSox only teams to beat them). Turner field will not sell out like Philly because our fan base is distributed throughout the South. You can’t just hop in a train and ride to the game in 20 minutes. Its a big deal to make the trek to Turner field for most fans. Philly is population dense, not scattered out all over the place like ATL. A 2 hour car ride from Philly takes you to a number of other major cities with their own teams. A 2 hour ride in ATL takes you to country suburbia. So let’s put this nonsense to rest please….
Dr. H
December 15th, 2010
9:07 am
Wild Card is not all bad!! Phils pulled off a big deal! Can the four starters all blend? What about chemistry? What I like is the way so many are giving the World Series to the Phils already. Lee did not get Texas through the World Series. The Phils had three of the four for last year’s playoffs….and they failed. The Braves have strenthened their bullpen (better than Phils). The Braves have strenghtened their bench (better than Phils). The Braves starters can more than match up with the Phils. And, Chipper will be back. As a leader. As a player. I think Wren may have another move up his sleeve. Go Braves!!
Wake up Wren
December 15th, 2010
9:19 am
Bill Hall and L Cain are J Upton then bring on the Phillies
GaryinBham
December 15th, 2010
9:37 am
I entered this under the blog story, but it bears repeating. I got curious while watching all the uproar over the Lee signing. So I went back and looked up who the eight highest spenders were for the past five seasons, how many made the playoffs and how many went to the World Series and won (to test the notion, “If you don’t spend you can’t win”)
Here’s what I found:
2006–3 out of 8 top spenders made the playoffs, none in World Series (Cards over Tigers)
2007—4 out of 8 top spenders made the playoffs, one in World Series (Red Sox, winners)
2008—5 out of 8 top spenders made the playoffs, one in the WS (Phillies, winners)
2009—4 out of 8 top spenders made playoffs, both WS teams were top spenders (Yanks over Phils)
2010—only two of the top 8 spenders made the playoffs (Phils and Yanks). Neither advanced. Neither WS contender was a top spender
In five years, 18 of the top 40 spenders made the playoffs. Only 4 of these made it to the World Series. In three years, one (and in one case two) of the top eight made the series, Only once were both WS contenders top eight spenders. 3 of the 5 champions were top eight spenders.
It appears that knee-jerk spending doesn’t replace baseball savvy, injuries, the unpredictability of people from year to year, and a little plain luck here and there. It seems that team chemistry, leadership, and other intangibles might actually make a difference.
Bottom line: don’t cede the title to the Phillies just yet. They won their title in a year when they were not yet a top eight spender. They are a great rotation, and I think you have to pick ‘em to win the division. The Braves rotation doesn’t match them. But that doesn’t mean they win the games. As far as I am concerned, “W” is all that matters at the end. The rest is just to kill the time.
Walker, Texas Ranger
December 15th, 2010
9:59 am
No comparison between Braves ‘97 rotation and the Phillies. Braves had 3 future HOF in their prime, Phillies have 1
How I learned to stop worrying and love the wild card | HardballTalk
December 15th, 2010
10:02 am
[...] The AJC’s Mark Bradley has a column up today with the headline: “With Lee again a Phil, are the Braves playing for the wild card?” [...]
Anthony
December 15th, 2010
10:22 am
judging by the empty stand during the heart of the pennant race, I don’t think the Braves will be spending money anytime soon
Anthony
December 15th, 2010
10:23 am
*stands*
Take a Deep Breath
December 15th, 2010
10:30 am
Mark-
Let’s all take a deep breath here before we concede the World Series to the Phillies. The combined records of Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee in 2010 was 37-33, not exactly Hall of Fame statistics.
Take a Deep Breath
December 15th, 2010
10:35 am
Cliff Lee has ptched nine years in the majors with a 102-61 record, with only one 20 win season. His record at Texas last year after being traded from Seattle was 4-6 with a 3.98 ERA. Let’s wait a while before we start comparing him to Whitey Ford, Sandy Koufax or Steve Carlton, Hall of Fame lefties.
chief pitchanono
December 15th, 2010
11:00 am
If everyone stays healthy it will be the Braves or the Phillies playing for the wild card, I don’t see another division haveing a shot at it unless one of these clubs has significant injuries. Don’t get me wrong if everything goes perfect for the Phills, no significant injuries, and their offense gets more consistent, (somehow without Werth) – they could walk away with it all, not just the division, but the World Series too, but that rarely happens over a 162 game season. I personally think this was a dumb move by the Phills, if it was me I would have given the money to Werth instead. This may work for them for a year or two if they are lucky, but they have a ton of money in 4 middle age guys who could go down on any pitch. The way you win consitently in baseball is by having a mix of expensive vets and young, up & coming studds with a few more up & comeing arms in the high levels of the minors. This does two very important things, which the phillys have ignored, it protects your starting rotation when the injury bug hits (and with starters its a when, not if) plus by having the young starters you have more flexiblity to spend more on your offense to make sure you get some run support for your pitching. They already had good pitching the should have worked on their depth and not took such an offensive hit by letting Werth get away. They will learn like the Braves did a few years ago, you can’t throw all your money and prospects into expensive big name pitchers and then sit back a wait for them to hand the World Series trophy to you. It just rarely happens and even when it does its rarely worth it for the longhaul, when they eventually breakdown while you still owe them allot of money and your team and fans have to suffer through several bad seasons while you try to rebuild.
All I'm Saying Is...
December 15th, 2010
11:03 am
Gary in BHam said it with facts and others may have said it as well but the bottom line is “money don’t buy you a WS title”.
What I would add is that vaunted Braves pitching staff that Bradley references (Glavine, Smoltz, Neagle, and Mad Dog) didn’t advance to the WS that year either.
In fact, one could argue that the fact the Braves won only one WS in the 90s was because and due to its pitching. Glavine and Wohlers came through in ‘95 and the pitching did not in ‘96 (aside from game six which we lost 1 to 0) and did not in ‘99 (we got shelled in virtually every game). (In ‘91 you can definitely blame Lonnie but also Leibrandt too, in my opinion.)
LET’S GO BRAVES!
bruce mac
December 15th, 2010
11:09 am
Why don’t all of you supposed baseball genious’ at least wait until the season begins and the Braves actually start losing before you jump ship. Good grief, your lives must really suck big time to analyze that everything Braves is doomed to failure. Did you not just watch them in the playoffs and are they not better in 2011 with Chipper, Ugla and Prado? I thought so.
The debate: Does Philly's rotation trump the Braves of the '90s? | Mark Bradley
December 15th, 2010
11:43 am
[...] comparison is so inviting that even a world-class dunce like yours truly has made it: With Cliff Lee, the Phillies would seem to have a rotation capable of challenging the best ever, [...]
C'mon Man
December 15th, 2010
12:17 pm
Mark Bradley – and for all of you praying for a Greinke-Jurrjens swap, Here is a look at their numbers through their first 4 seasons.
Greinke – 112 games 21-35 4.63 ERA 325 K’s
Jurrjens – 92 games 37-27 3.52 ERA 390 K’s
C'mon Man
December 15th, 2010
12:22 pm
And if you were curious as to what Cliff Lee’s numbers were through his first 4 here they are too:
Lee – 76 games 35-17 4.38 ERA 354 K’s
I wouldn’t be so quick to jump off the Jurrjens bandwagon. May be one of the best #4 starters in baseball.
Jay
December 16th, 2010
3:57 pm
I’m a Phillies fan. I just want to point out that the majority of the arguments posted thus far is that the Braves had the greatest rotation in baseball in the 1990s and squandered it by only winning one World Series during that stretch. I think you fail to overlook how much better the Phillies lineup is, even without Werth, than those of the Braves were. The team was built as an offensive powerhouse who just happened to find the potential best pitching staff in the division, let alone sport. If their offense gets back to its 07-09 form it could be a very long season to be playing National League East. There are former all stars still in their early 30s all the way around the horn, one heck of a catcher, and a solid center fielder, and that youngster Brown coming up all capable of producing major numbers in the big leagues.
There is no dispute that Maddox, Glavine, Smoltz was one of, if not the greatest 1,2, 3 punches in MLB history. And the Phils have done nothing so far but put together the most expensive starting rotation in history, and nothing more. It is their offensive potential, the capability of their starting rotation to put up 80 wins on their own with no one pitching beyond their own expectations, and a bullpen with a pretty dangerous 7-8-9 combo when clicking on all cylinders as they were last September when they caught and trampled the Braves.
Army Strong
December 16th, 2010
4:56 pm
The back end of the Phillies pen should worry that front office some too. They have major vulnerable spots with lefty help in the bullpen as well. Brad Lidge re-vitalized himself towards the middle of last season and Ryan Madson isn’t what he used to be. As I’m sure most us Braves fans remember, leads don’t mean anything if you can’t keep them (Dan Kolb anyone?).
20032025 | Nostradamus | drastic changes | Nostradamus Future Predictions
December 18th, 2010
7:35 am
[...] Price: You may also find this relevant: http://blogs.ajc.com/get-schooled-blog/2010/12/13/can-gwinnett-coach-save-face-on-facebook/?cxntfid=blogs_get_schooled_blog Additionally on this topic you can read: http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2010/12/14/with-lee-again-a-phil-are-the-braves-playing-for-t... [...]