With Lee again a Phil, are the Braves playing for the wild card?
Those were the days, my friends. We thought they'd never end. (AJC file photo)
Whenever Bobby Cox was asked last winter about the Phillies’ acquisition of Roy Halladay, he had the same answer: “At least they don’t have [Cliff] Lee.”
Your attention, please: Now they do. And this would seem a propitious moment not to be managing a team that has to play the Phillies 18 times a season. Which means Cox timed his retirement pretty doggone well.
The Phillies rocked the ol’ world Monday night, coming from far off the pace to land the biggest prize of this free-agent class. Lee was supposed to be bound for the Bronx, where every big-ticket ballplayer eventually lands, or back to Texas, scene of his most recent success. Instead he’s going to the Phillies, which not so long ago shipped him to Seattle because they couldn’t afford both Halladay and Lee.
Now they’ve got Halladay and Lee. And Cole Hamels. And Roy Oswalt.
This isn’t just the finest rotation in contemporary baseball; it’s the best the sport has seen since the era of Glavine and Smoltz and Maddux and Avery/Neagle. Those Braves won every division title by outpitching everybody else. The Phillies, who have already taken the past four NL East titles, should outpitch everybody now and for the foreseeable future.
This doesn’t mean the Braves have no chance. It’s baseball. Stuff happens. But even in weirdo baseball the one thing that can override all else is starting pitching. The Braves’ rotation — Hudson, Hanson, Lowe, Jurrjens and maybe Mike Minor — will be very good. The Phillies’ will be better than good. Anyone inclined to pick the Braves to win the East in 2011 has just had a re-think.
It’s the old Braves’ formula: You win over the long haul because your Nos. 3 and 4 starters are better than everybody else’s. And there’s another Braves’ precedent at play: An already-good rotation became the greatest ever because the biggest free-agent pitcher of the era took less money than the Yankees were offering to become a Brave.
And now Cliff Lee has done as Greg Maddux did 18 Decembers ago. And now a pretty decent Braves’ offseason pales in comparison. Good thing there’s the wild card, huh?
By Mark Bradley
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175 comments Add your comment
Bernard
December 14th, 2010
4:01 pm
hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhELL yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wild card chumps…the phillies sellout all their games??? We don’t!!!! YOU GET WHAT YOU PAY FOR SO brave “fans” shut up & don’t complain???!!!…you can’t have ur cake & eat it too LOSERS!!!!
hop
December 14th, 2010
4:10 pm
i could not agree as the braves will be playing for second place since our owners do not care about what the braves do.
when are these owsners who happen to live in denver sell this team to an ownership that wants to win and will make the commitment to do so.
MitchC
December 14th, 2010
4:19 pm
Mark, while your analysis is correct, I didn’t think the Braves would win the East even before the Phillies got Lee. Uggla, in my mind, merely made us the favorite to win the Wild Card, but. after four straight NL East titles, I still felt the Phillies were the team to beat.
You are absolutely right that with Lee, the Phillies could have the most formidable rotation since the glory days of the Braves. Oh.. and they still have a pretty good lineup as well.
Things happen.. we know. We know the Braves had a seven game NL East lead in 2010, before barely hanging on for the wild card. If the Phillies are healthy, the NL East should not even be close.
The Braves.. they should do about what we thought they might.. 90 to 95 wins, and the wild card, if they stay healthy. They are still a good team, which got better with Uggla. Philly is just a better team, the class of the division, and maybe, all of baseball.
Keith
December 14th, 2010
4:25 pm
Bradley, most guys have a physical as the trade deal is pending, but I guess if you would do the Greinke deal, would you require a psych eval?
GO BRAVES!
"Chef" Tim Dix
December 14th, 2010
4:26 pm
Neagle’s “train” call still makes me smile.
Navigator
December 14th, 2010
4:30 pm
Why is anyone surprise by the Cliff Lee signing? The Phillies are what the Braves used to be, signing top players and winning divisions, going to the world series. We have to accept that the management the Braves have now are riding the franchise until the moment they can maximize their investment and sell. This is what the franchise was before Turner bought it, and will be again unless a new Turner type wants his own sports toy.
Big Giant
December 14th, 2010
4:55 pm
I still think that the 1-2 punch of Lincecum and Cain can be as good or better than any 2 pitchers in baseball including the Phillies…………..we will see……
Yankee Doodle
December 14th, 2010
5:02 pm
This will prompt the Yankees to get Josh Johnson from the Marlins………..Since the Marlins will believe they can’t beat Philly..the Marlins will trade him…………Hey this might be a good opportunity for the Braves to trade Lowe to the Yankees now also………..If none of these work out the Mariners will part with King Felix and get the players they wanted from the Yank’s in the first place……….HOW BRAVE’S FANS WISH Ted Turner was still OWNER!
Lee has lost it!
December 14th, 2010
5:04 pm
Cliff Lee is one of those guys who have 1-2 good years and cash in………reference Barry Zito!
MitchC
December 14th, 2010
5:10 pm
Mark, I may get ripped for this.. but.. what do you think of the idea of the Braves trading JJ for another bat?
I mean,.., yes.. we can look at the Adam Wainwright deal, and shake our heads.. but.. two things come to mind. One, JJ’s injuries the last two years. Two.. JJ is a Boras client, and will we be able to re sign him, if he comes up as a free agent.
The danger in trading him, as we know, is that it leaves our rotation with 38 year old Lowe, and 36 year old Hudson, and Tommy Hanson is the only real young guy in there.
I thought about JJ because he;s young, and may still have value. Maybe that’s a knee jerk, not wise reaction.. What do you think?
Nativebird
December 14th, 2010
5:16 pm
Ownership. Ours sukcsz.
Rockdale Brave
December 14th, 2010
5:33 pm
Mark: Why did you and JS write essentialy the same article today? Are you in a contest to see who gets the most responses? Anyway, my answer is no, the Braves will be playing to win the NL East. No team worth its salt
would concede first place just because another team may be the favorite of the media.
Harvey
December 14th, 2010
5:41 pm
Who cares. Major league athletes are all a bunch of grotesquely overpaid thugs or prima donnas.
I’ll stick with Netflix.
SawThat1nce
December 14th, 2010
5:45 pm
Phillies formidable? yes… Invincible? no
Christopher Chance
December 14th, 2010
5:50 pm
I think that what people are forgetting is that Derek Lowe $15 mil, Chipper Jones $13 mil, Kawakami at $6.67 mil and McLouth at $6.5 mil (Total $41 mil) has hampered Frank Wren’s ability to really shape this team. $41 mil to 4 players (Dipper, Kawacrappy and McLoser are pretty much atrocious) taking up almost half the payroll.
I was hoping that with Lowe’s September and October performance….that maybe the Braves could package him in a trade to free up some payroll. One could only hope that if the Yankees miss out on Greinke, they’ll be desperate to take Lowe’s contract (along with Kawacrappy’s) off the Braves hands (hope, not saying that it will happen, lol).
SawThat1nce
December 14th, 2010
5:55 pm
McLouth will have a big comeback year, as will Shaffer.
Chipper will hit around .300 with a little over 30 HRS.
Braves will take the NL Eastern Div. in 2011.
SawThat1nce
December 14th, 2010
5:56 pm
KK will be selling popcorn and peanuts in the seat behind homeplate.
Heath
December 14th, 2010
5:59 pm
Hard to see the Braves winning the division, but their pitching should have them in the WC chase all year.
Christopher Chance
December 14th, 2010
6:02 pm
I dont think that the Braves can realistically depend on Chipper Jones to come back and do much of anything. Chipper is a shell of his former self. His range is limited at 3rd and he’s a #7 hitter (not a #3 hitter that I’m sure that Freddi Gonzalez will put him in) at this point in whatever career he has left.
He’s also due $13 mil in 2012 (along with Derek Lowe at another $15 mil).
I dont see Chipper Jones walking away from $26 mil combined. He’ll just continue to deal with his injuries, hang with the guys and hold out hope that he’ll “recapture the magic that left him long ago”.
The Braves will have a hard time signing Dan Uggla to a long term contract……unless Uggla takes less money upfront in the beginning of his contract (meaning that the Braves back load his contract). I dont see how they can fit his contract in 2011 and 2012 unless it’s back loaded.
Christopher Chance
December 14th, 2010
6:04 pm
SawThat1nce…………..What are you smoking that has you high enough to believe what you posted at 5:56pm?
Wake up Wren
December 14th, 2010
6:25 pm
All we need is Bill Hall.
Trade for Cain are J Upton.. and play ball
Mitchell
December 14th, 2010
6:39 pm
F*in’ Denny Neagle.
That guy holds a special place in the Braves post-season Hall of Shame whether the average Braves fan realizes it or not.
How he ever managed to eschew the considerable blame he deserves for the collapse in Game 4 of the ‘96 World Series is amazing.
If he had just done his job and not let them back into the game, it never would have come to what it came to.
Christopher Chance
December 14th, 2010
6:43 pm
The more I think about it, now would be a PERFECT time for Frank Wren to pull one of his patented “I had no idea he had this in the works” kind of trade…………by engaging the Yankees interest in trading for Derek Lowe.
Derek Lowe is healthy, can pitch under pressure (very important when pitching in N.Y.) and eats innings. If I was Frank Wren, I’d package Kawacrappy’s $6.7 mil contract with Lowe…..and only ask for the proverbial “bag of balls” type prospect…IF…..the Yankees were willing to eat both contracts.
The Braves, in turn, could use the $21.67 mil in savings (along with some prospects) to maybe trade for Zack Greinke and improve the bench.
I know, one can only hope. However other than Sabathia and Hughes….the Yankees are pretty desperate for starting pitching.
jfreak13713
December 14th, 2010
6:45 pm
The best team does not always win. We are all quick to talk about those Braves teams of the past but they only won one world series! So someone else was better or just got lucky every other year! However, baring an injury the Phillie will win 100+ games and walk away with the divison. The Braves will have to play for the wild card and hope for a little luck in the Playoffs.
Our pitching should be pretty good as well! Need another bat or two?
DHD
December 14th, 2010
6:48 pm
We play to win the game. HELLO!! We PLAY to WIN the GAME.
Mitchell
December 14th, 2010
6:55 pm
Golly gee. If the great Bobby Cox couldn’t manage to hold onto a 7.5 game lead against the injury riddled and nearly defeated Philadelphia Phillies, what hope is there that poor old Fredi Gonzalez can even try to compete with Charlie Manuel and his staff of aces.
Actually, I like our chances.
As long as Fredi doesn’t get all soft and start making excuses for players when they collectively lose track of the number of outs in an inning among other glaring mental lapses in the most critical time of the season.
It still boggles the mind how a team could have 26 wins in their last at-bat, 13 walk-off victories at home, the best home record in the majors and 40 plus come-from-behind wins and ultimately stumble to the finish line and barely scratch out a wild card spot on the last day of the season… and then lose both of its home playoff games and fans still claim it was one of the best seasons by Bobby Cox in his legendary career.
I don’t get it.
It’s bad enough we end the 2009 season with six straight home losses and by doing so finish in 3rd place after going 15-2 in mid-September. Then we get a final tease, a full summer in first in Bobby Cox’s last year and once again it slips away.
If you really had to choose your manager to try to take on the Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and co. Phillies in 2011, would anybody say Bobby Cox?
It’s definitely not going to be easy, but I think Fredi can do it.
Christopher Chance
December 14th, 2010
7:15 pm
Mitchell……….GREAT 6:55pm post. I hope that Fredi Gonzalez doesnt bust out the “we hit it right at them…or we got beat by bloop hits” B.S. excuses that Bobby Cox feed to the Atlanta press (who greedily lapped it up), lol, when we lose because of bad play.
Also, it would be nice to see the Braves leave Spring Training in 2011 at least looking like they spent a few days doing defensive drills (unlike the bunch the past couple of years who spent “Club Bobby” chilling and enjoying Spring Training).
The reason why we didnt win the division in 2010……and lost in play-offs……was because of our horrific defense. We had over 40 errors more than any of the other National League play-off teams. Defensive lapses are a DIRECT reflection on poor coaching.
Omaha is Braves Country
December 14th, 2010
7:40 pm
The Sky is falling…The Sky is falling…..(Not So fast my friends) Era. proves 3.46 vs 3.47 lifetime career ERA of each top 4. With Uggla and Chipper back we improved our offense….Chipper may not be the same power hitter, but will still get walked a lot…Phillies lost offense in Werth..And we also have a better bullpen…Not to mention Fredi Gonzo has won with way less!
Christopher Chance
December 14th, 2010
8:03 pm
Omaha is Braves Country………If Chipper Jones wasnt making $13 mil a year OR hitting in the #3 slot in the order…….then drawing a lot of walks would be a good thing.
However, when a player is being paid $13 mil to hit in the #3 slot of the order, then 30 hrs and 100 RBIs should be the “minimum” a GOOD, PLAY-OFF worthy team expects from him.
I DO NOT see Chipper coming anywhere close to those numbers. Those numbers are in his distant past. That wont help the Braves compete for a play-off spot.
Braves off-season OF signing = Joe Simpson
December 14th, 2010
8:06 pm
I’d be more worried about the Nationals, since the only thing the Braves are competing for is last place in the NL East. Hey, Arthur Blank: forget about a new football stadium and invest in a new Atlanta sports franchise!! Please??
just sayin
December 14th, 2010
8:31 pm
Sorry guys but I’m just “a little” impressed. Having a great starting rotation without a bullpen is like having a bridge that is 90% complete. The first 90% is worthless without the last 10%. The Phillies have NO bullpen. And they’ve already shown their offense is just like ours – one or two key injuries from being useless. Bring em on. If you’re scared get a dog.
Christopher Chance
December 14th, 2010
9:02 pm
just saying……….Brad Lidge looks like he’s made it back from the bad year he had in 2009.
When you have 2 starters (Lee and Halladay) who pretty much are locks to complete 10 games every year…….to go along with two other starters (Oswalt and Hamels) who consistently go 7 innings…..you dont need a “terrific bullpen”.
With Lee and Halladay going back to back…there will be stretches where the Phillies wont even need to use the pen for a couple of days.
Enemas for Christmas
December 14th, 2010
9:07 pm
It’s football season ladies.
still@the bar
December 14th, 2010
9:47 pm
Hello
still@the bar
December 14th, 2010
9:48 pm
Hi
douglas
December 14th, 2010
9:55 pm
the good news is that the Yankees didn’t get him and will not be in the World Series..or at least win it.
doninacworth
December 14th, 2010
10:03 pm
Talk, Talk, Talk. Thank goodness there are more than one component to a team sport. Each year
we all start with a team that has possibilities and then several factors have a chance to act and re-act before after a short time, the boys become men and we start seeing who can earn all that money they think they are worth. I’m just saying…. nobody wins without putting all the talent together and the leaders on the team (including players and coaches) start believing they can win the whole darn thing and jack-up the other guys and then…Casey bar the door! I always hope the Braves catch the winning fever right about the first or second week of April and decide to win the whole darn thing come rain or shine. Now… is that enough for you? Somebody hand me a bat.
DawgDad
December 14th, 2010
10:29 pm
Sure, the Braves COULD win this year. But more likely the Phils big four combined with a more question-riddled Braves roster could sink our wild card aspirations. The Braves should still keep an eye on the future. Lowe, Hudson, Chipper are very old, Gonzalez is getting nearer to the end of his shortstop days, and Uggla may not be a second baseman much longer (if he is now). The Braves infield defense could really hamper the pitching this coming season.
GOP Cannon
December 14th, 2010
10:30 pm
I am trying really hard to find a silver lining in all this, but at least the Yankees got screwed in this deal.
Whopper Dawg
December 14th, 2010
10:49 pm
Yes. Unless there is an injury to that staff.
Steve
December 14th, 2010
11:27 pm
Why is this team broke? Wagner is gone… that is $9 million saved… All I hear about is people retiring, people leaving for free agency and yet no money seems to be freed up and we have to pin our hopes on washouts like Jordan Schafer and never will bes like Fragile Freddie Freeman. The Braves will be lucky to win 75 games next year with the pitiful team they have in place. Unless Dan Uggla can hit 55 HRs and play 1st and 2nd at the same time we are screwed. Can’t we get some new owners please?
just facts
December 14th, 2010
11:41 pm
let’s see Mark, refresh my memory. how many world series did that braves starting rotation win?
Katherine
December 14th, 2010
11:55 pm
Harvey
December 14th, 2010
5:41 pm
Who cares. Major league athletes are all a bunch of grotesquely overpaid thugs or prima donnas.
I’ll stick with Netflix.
Then why are you on a sports blog?
Katherine
December 14th, 2010
11:56 pm
So the braves should just pack it in already…season over…….seriously? Wait…weren’t the yankees and phillies supposed to win it all last year?
DR DMAN
December 15th, 2010
12:25 am
Mark: I’m sure most Braves fans have to occasionally ask this question: Where would we be if we could reverse the Adam Wainwright for J.D. Drew trade and the Elvis Andrus & Neftali Feliz, et al for Mark Teixeira trade. What would having Wainwright as one of our starters, Feliz as our closer and Andrus at Short do for this team right now? Those have got to be the worst two trades in modern Baseball history, only rivaled by the Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz I guess.
Looking Forward to Freddies (both of them)
December 15th, 2010
2:19 am
Dear Philly Fans, and those writing the Braves off, I would just like to point a few things out:
1. Fielding Melky Cabrera, Troy Glaus, Nate McClouth, and losing Chipper, Jurjjens, Prado, Heyward, and Diaz for considerable stretches the Bravs still won 90+ games last year. This year we have replaced all of the above bad players with Type A players while adding Right Handed power in Uggla (Uggla averages 30+ HRs a season) and a potential ROY first baseman in Freddie Freeman.
2. Cliff Lee does not have stellar regular season numbers – they are good but not stellar.
3. Even if Lee turns in a Cy Young performance that still means that the Phillies have four awesome starters and a black hole in the #5 SP position. The Braves have 2 awesome pitchers, 2 great players with the potential to turn into awesome, but unlike the glaring hole in the number 5 spot we have two really good young pitchers. THEN we also have a potential future Ace who should be ready to break into MLB by July. Thus the solidity at every sport in our overall starting rotation may equal the Phils first four starters.
4. The Phillies just lost a middle of the order RH power hitter who they cannot replace. This makes the middle of their order not nearly as intimidating. Conversely the Braves just added an even bigger hitter than the Phils just lost. Thus Braves offense just became better than the Phils.
5. The Phillies have NO bullpen beyond Brad Lidge, none, nada, zilch. And with their offense just having lost a major contributor, they better hope that their big four can pitch at least 8 innings every game (and even if they do the SP arms may be jelly by the time the playoffs arrive). Conversely, the Braves have the best bullpen in MLB (along with SanFran). Thus our SP will have more confidence and will be better rested. An off day for our SP will not hurt nearly as bad as an off day for the Phils SP.
All things considered, despite all the bruhaha and nutcases going wild on (N)E)SPN, I think the Braves have every chance and then some at challenging the Phillies this year.
Bring it on Philladelphia….(just please do not throw up on us, and keep your spandex in the closet)
bitter "ole" school pro baseball fan
December 15th, 2010
2:26 am
pro baseball has sold out to the highest bidder years ago, they lost me after the 2nd strike in early 90’s, the game is a scam compared to the era pior to 1990’s when a 3rd baseman went the entire year with less than 5 boots, no hussle, no compassion for the game and to much f–in money to get in to watch a 2hr game, to much money to watch a grow adult play a kids game, the game is dead, just use stroids and swing for the fence, dont steal bases, dont run out every at=bat, dont field with pride, and always wine and urban cryer to the ump’s. 1 ? how the f— does this worthless game as we no it today make the money they make, ansewer, they fans, the the owners really dont care if anyone shows, (check the gates) they make there money based on TV revenue. so the only way to save the game is to STOP WATCHING this pretend game of baseball, in fact you dont even need real humans to play anymore just let hollywood make it all up and use actors for the games. I say any one who watch’s only supports this dead sport!! and now you no the rest of the story!! support only collage sports, dont waste your money on foolish pro sports, untill prices come down to 5$ a ticket and players only make 5 figures!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Looking Forward to Freddies (both of them)
December 15th, 2010
2:31 am
I would also like to point out that with their mega contracts totaling over 150 million, to multiple players over 30: phinancially the Phillies are phu*ked in phour years
(sorry MB and AJC that was just too tempting)
Meanwhile the Braves have the number 2 farm system in baseball (second only to KC), that is just now beginning to bud and will begin to peak in 2 years.
BravesfaninNashville
December 15th, 2010
3:18 am
It’s true the games have to be played on the field but unless the Phillies suffer significant injuries they will easily win the division because they will go on many runs where they win 8 of 10 and 12 of 15. In order for that to happen they simply have to have the top 4 starters win 2 in a row or 3 in a row. And count on it those pitchers will go on some winning streaks. Put that all together and it means the team gets on a roll. They’ll probably win 100 games and win the division by 6 to 8 games. The Braves of course won’t surrender the division now but IMO Mr. Bradley is right and they are playing for the Wild Card. The Phillies would have to lose at least 1 of those Aces for an extended period and also lose either Howard, Utley, or Rollins at the same time to make them even with the Braves. No offense to the Braves I love them and they have a good team not counting CF but they don’t match up with Phillie man for man with this rotation and offense. Of course we will win some games with our bullpen that the Phillies will lose but that won’t make up for the many games those pitchers will go 8 innings and give up 1 or 2 runs while the Phillie offense scores 5 runs or more. I’m still looking forward to the season because the Braves should win the WC and be built well for the Playoffs. It only takes 2 really hot starters and a third one to pitch fairly well and you can win playoff series. The Braves will be just fine if Chipper does anything at all and Freeman can play well enough to stay in the majors.
RAMLINGWRECK
December 15th, 2010
4:20 am
The Braves are hopeless losers this season as much as the Tech basketball team!