Am I the only one in the world who likes the Braves’ chances?
Cheer up, Omar! MB still believes! (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
They trail the Phillies by three games in the National League East. They lead the Giants by a half-game in the wild-card standings, and they could be tied by the close of West Coast business tonight. They’ve lost nine of 14 games. They just lost a home series to the last-place Nationals. And still I believe the Braves will make the playoffs.
Apparently I’m alone in this. (Well, not alone alone. I’m sure Bobby Cox shares my feeling.) But the tenor of the comments on this little blog indicates that the Chance Bros. — Slim and None — have not only left town but fled the country. Nobody likes the Braves anymore because (pick one or more) Cox is a moron andFrank Wren is a moron and Derrek Lee is a has-been and Troy Glaus was a one-month wonder and these players have no heart and would just as soon lose now as lose in the playoffs.
The playoff probabilities on ESPN.com show the Braves, Padres and Giants in a virtual dead heat. (The Braves are at 63.9 percent, down substantially from the 94.3 percent of Labor Day. See what happens when you lose two to the Pirates and then two to the Nats?)
But I am, as we know, a bit different. I still — still, I say — think there’s enough pitching and just enough offense to grind out the wild card. (The NL East is going to be tough. I can’t see the Phillies spitting the bit.) It will come down to the Braves and the second-place club out West, which could be the Padres or the Giants, neither of which hits very much, but it could also be Colorado, which is the scariest team in the world in September.
That said, the Braves are not without resources, limited though they may seem at the moment. They have a fine bullpen. Their rotation had been stalwart all summer until this recent bit of turbulence. They still get enough men on base, although driving them in remains an issue.
Think of it this way: If, on Opening Day, someone had told you, “This team will be a half-game ahead in the wild-card standings with 2 1/2 weeks left,” you’d have taken it, right? Because that would have meant a roster that frankly didn’t look so formidable would have given itself a chance. And that’s what these Braves still have — a chance.
They can’t worry about the Phillies or the lost lead. “We can only look at what’s ahead of us,” Jason Heyward said Wednesday. Going upstairs and seeking further review will not overturn the two losses to the Nats. Not to be pedantic, but the Braves must win as many of these remaining 15 as they can, and 10 ought to do it. (That would leave them with 93 victories, and 93 is essentially the magic number for NL wild-card aspirants.)
Yeah, I hear you. “Win 10 of 15? They couldn’t take two of three from Washington.” And I know it doesn’t look so promising at the moment. But the worst-case scenario is that the Braves will face the Mets on Friday tied for the wild-card lead, and let’s note that the Padres still must face the Cardinals, the Dodgers, the Reds and the Giants; that the Giants must face the Padres and the Rockies, and that Colorado must seek to make up 2 1/2 games on the Braves while facing the Dodgers in two series and the Giants and Cardinals in one each.
Folks, this can still happen. So why do I feel like I’m talking to myself?
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879 comments Add your comment
justdhoo
September 16th, 2010
1:59 pm
the NL West teams will beat up on each other, so the braves have a good shot at the wildcard. Pitching has to turn around though
Mark Bradley
September 16th, 2010
2:00 pm
Yes, justdhoo. Just so.
A.J.
September 16th, 2010
2:00 pm
You are right Mark. I am tired of reading all of these posts from these fair weather fans who do not understand baseball. Go Braves!!
Nova Scotia Steve
September 16th, 2010
2:02 pm
I hope you’re right Mark. I hope you’re right.
They just look tired to me and without near dominant starting pitching – this team looks pretty mediocre.
First time I’ve said that all season
Mark Bradley
September 16th, 2010
2:03 pm
They looked tired to me Wednesday, Nova Scotia Steve. We’ll see what the off-day brings. (And they’ve got two more of those after today.)
Joseph
September 16th, 2010
2:08 pm
The rest today will do them some good.
Aaron
September 16th, 2010
2:08 pm
Considering the only team in my opinion with a worse offense then us is the Giants, I feel pretty good. Hudson is the key. If he pitches like he did in July/August, we will be fine.
I am not totally concerned about the Rockies.
Booyah
September 16th, 2010
2:11 pm
The question is… are we slumping or are we worn out? It feels like the latter, but hopefully I am wrong. Fingers crossed that Cox makes some tweaks. Diaz should play every day for the rest of the season. How about giving FF a start – what could it hurt? Move Heyward to third in lineup.
philly rob
September 16th, 2010
2:12 pm
Sorry to burst your bubble, but the Phils set it up so you face Oswalt, Halladay and Hamels all six games….you better hope the Phils clinch before the last weekend so you can beat up Kyle Kendrick and Vance Worley and hope to squeeze out the Wild Card
Oh and the Phillies are hitting again, good luck with that.
jfreak13713
September 16th, 2010
2:13 pm
The Braves certainly can still win the wild card but based on recent performance and NO CHIPPER I think they will continue their slide and miss the playoffs. I like Colorado to really put the heat on the Giants and take the wild card with the last couple of games in the season.
The Braves just don’t play well on the road and there is no reason this late in the season to believe they will suddenly turn that around. .500 road trip and season over? Go Braves.
DawginLex
September 16th, 2010
2:13 pm
I want to believe but I don’t.
79
September 16th, 2010
2:13 pm
Toast…no offense…..4 runs Monday (all in 1 inning)…0 runs Tuesday (against some fat guy playing soft toss) and 2 runs Wednesday (against not-Walter Johnson)…..
Bat Masterson
September 16th, 2010
2:14 pm
I think they make it Mark. Winning streak starts tomorrow.
Tomorrow, it’s the perfect time to start any job, tomorrow.
War Eagle
September 16th, 2010
2:15 pm
MB, have to agree that the off days upcoming, especially this one today, should get the team well rested and refocused. I think the braves still have a great shot at making the playoffs, pitching just has to get back to the level it was a short time ago. Lowe’s next start means alot, if he can continue to be dominant that should give the offense the morale boost that they need right now… Oh, and Colorado can’t possibly continue this tear, right?
jfreak13713
September 16th, 2010
2:16 pm
By the way A.J. being realistic does not always mean that we are FAIR WEATHER. I’ve spent 36 years pulling for this team so I’ve earned the right to be realistic don’t you think?
Coach
September 16th, 2010
2:16 pm
Yes Bradley, you are talking to yourself. This anemic offense is inconsistent at best. No big bats+ no speed on the bases= watching the playoffs at home.
gadawgs
September 16th, 2010
2:16 pm
Yep!
gadawgs
September 16th, 2010
2:18 pm
Well said jfreak and I concur. I have been following them for 40.
philly rob
September 16th, 2010
2:21 pm
aren’t all braves fans fair weather? there was 20 people there yesterday Brian McCann said he could here the toilets flushing from home plate
SG10
September 16th, 2010
2:21 pm
Mark,
Pitching has to step up..but at this point, you wonder how.. it is not that JJ went into these last two games wanting to throw a bad game…if it is mental then it is a problem. I hope Hudson’s was only fatigue and he will do well with the extra days off.
Sons of Rick Matula
September 16th, 2010
2:22 pm
I can’t believe Mark is falling back on the old cliche “If someone told you on opening day …” How about the reality — On the 4th July, we were in first place. It was a time to go for the kill. We went for Ankiel.
Dontavius Supremo
September 16th, 2010
2:22 pm
Yeah, I’ve been with them since the beginning also. I was at the first game with my Dad in ‘66 when they lost to Pittsburgh in extra innings (Tony Clonninger pitched for the Braves.) But so what? If you look at baseball history, the Braves have probably given Atlanta more than most franchises have given their cities (notice I said MOST; I know about the Yankees.) This year? Well, I am a pessimist by outlook, but that said, at least they have been fun to watch. The turning point? Losing Jones. That ws too bad for Atlanta.
Matt
September 16th, 2010
2:23 pm
Kiss of death, Mark. Kiss of death. You and I both know that once you offer a prediction the opposite comes true.
I tend to agree that the Braves make the playoffs but would have much better about this if you hadn’t said the same thing.
GT Alum
September 16th, 2010
2:24 pm
I wouldn’t say they have no chance, but I can’t say I like their chances. Given, the Mets w/o Santana have very little bite, but the Braves have struggled against Washington and the Marlins, and the Phillies are just playing better ball than we are. Not to mention that 9 of those 15 games are on the road, where the Braves have been less than spectacular. And those late inning comebacks have been few and far between of late. The Braves can still make it, but I don’t think they can do it playing the kind of ball they have lately.
yellerjacket
September 16th, 2010
2:24 pm
I certainly still think they have a better than average chance. If ESPN says 63.9%, who am I to argue. On the other hand, if they don’t make the playoffs, you can’t pile the blame squarely on anyone’s shoulders. Bobby, John, Frank, Roger, and TP as one unit, probably represent one of the top 3-5 front offices and coaching staffs in baseball, top to bottom. Our payroll is middling, and our fan support is bottom half at best. We had 15,000 fans at a night game in the middle of the most heated pennant race we have been in in years. The result of having a lack of speed and consistent power hitters is getting runners on base and not driving them in. Mr. Wren did what he could do this year with the payroll he had to work with. When a GM is saddled with salaries like Kawakami, Lowe, Chipper, and Hudson and your total payroll is in the 80M range, you get players like Glaus, Farnsworth, Ankiel, and Cabrera. Also, arguing against my own point, payroll isn’t always the answer…look at the Mets. I’d take our coaches and front office over their payroll anytime. Let’s all relax, realize the relative insignificance of professional sports, and stop calling for the heads of people doing their jobs.
TeeJay
September 16th, 2010
2:24 pm
Derek Lee and Alex Gonzales were not the answer. Tim Hudson is clearly tired, as I predicted in July. Apparently, the Braves are not coaching Jair J (KEEP THE BALL DOWN, especially to Adam Dunn).
I’m taking my cub scout son to the Oct 3 game, with a big “Thank You Bobby” sign in tow. REO Speedwagon apparently plays a concert after the game. Do they have a song called “Faded Down the Stretch”?…
Bama Aaron
September 16th, 2010
2:25 pm
I want to believe Mark, I really do. But this team isn’t slumping, it’s downright sinking. If I had a dollar for every man left on base this year I’d be a very rich man and our once strong pitching is failing. I very much hope I’m wrong, but I think a 3-6 road trip is very possible. At which point the season is pretty much done. My prediction is the Rockies overtake either the Padres or the Giants for the WC.
P C
September 16th, 2010
2:26 pm
I love the Braves (I have also been watching them for the last 40 years), and certainly haven’t given up on them; however, the quality of play these last few weeks has been horrible. The only good thing is that they are due to have another good streak, and it would be perfect if they could finish the season in the same manner as they did when they went into the All-Star Break. I think it’s clear they’re trying, and I think Mark hit the nail on the head when he said they looked tired. At this point, they just need to get mad at the situation and start taking it out on the other team.
SG10
September 16th, 2010
2:28 pm
Mark,
I like your positive attitude..it helps ease off some of the bad feeling watching Braves stink…Unfortunately, quite often it has lasted only till the next day when these Braves manage to get to new low level.. In any case, we are gonna start the campaign… Mark Bradley for the next Braves coach!
Chip Carey makes up his own facts
September 16th, 2010
2:28 pm
I still have faith if…
We start Freeman at first for the remainder of the season, and…
Move The Heymaker to the 3-hole!
southern hope
September 16th, 2010
2:30 pm
thank you for this. Seriously.
I was feeling really down….instead of *up* like the Giants fans…who are almost in our situation.
gadawgs
September 16th, 2010
2:30 pm
No philly rob they are not. I have been a fan of this team since the early 70’s and Ihave been to games in Atlanta Stadium (not Atlanta Fulton County Stadium) where you could hear conversations between the pitching coach and pitcher on the mound. I have followed and SUPPORTED them with my emotions, time and money for 40 years and I will continue to do so. But as jfreak noted above being realistic about our playoff chances does not mean we are fair weather fans. On the contrary we are educated fans and can see that we do not have the horses right now to get us there or get us deep if we do get there. Enjoy your time in the sun as the Phils no doubt are the class of the league but we once were and things do change and they will again. Atleast we do not throw up on young girls in the stands or throw snowballs at Santa Claus. You Philly fans are classless. I know people who have traveled to Philly for an Eagles vs. Falcons game and from what I understand Philly is definately not the City of Brotherly Love.
Supes
September 16th, 2010
2:31 pm
Mark,
Yes you and Skip Bayless are the only ones who are thinking with your hearts and not what your eyes have been seeing lately. They look FINISHED Mark, emotionally spent, whatever u wanna say. It looks like they peaked earlier (playing good ball) and are just treading water right now, trying not to completely fall apart.
The Starting pitching has been hit and miss, Hudson’s been in a mini slump even, we are really missing Kris Medlen and his excellent starting record from the number 5 slot, although Minor has done an admirable job filing in, he looks tired right now.
The Offense has been spotty and has been lacking clutch hits for over 2 months now.
Braves will be lucky if they get in the post season somehow via the wild card, but as hard as the Giants and Rockies are charging from the west I can’t see them holding on to it with 2 and half weeks left to play.
Besides, 9 game road trip…we all know the failures on the road.
So do I want them to make the playoffs, yes I do, Do I support and cheer for them, yes I do. Do I believe it, no b/c I stopped thinking with my heart long ago. Facts are facts, on top of that they don’t pass the “eye test”, like I said…they looked finished against the Nats those last 2 games.
rico cary
September 16th, 2010
2:32 pm
Thanks, Mark. I agree with your assessment. Not believing the NL East title will happen…Braves would have to take at least 4 of 6 from the Phils to make that happen…but WC could be very real. But, Braves have to win 10 of 15. If can go 3-3 with Phils then must go 7-2 against all others. It starts in NY on Friday, as much of a must game as Braves have had in sevearl yearas.
GT Alum
September 16th, 2010
2:32 pm
I’ve got to believe JJ is either tired or hurting. He was pitching great after coming off the DL until mid-August, but has only had 1 good start in his last 5. I really wonder if he’s hurting and just pitching through it because we don’t have any legitimate options to sub for him at this point.
5150 P.O.A.D
September 16th, 2010
2:32 pm
I hate it but the Braves are done. They keep bringing the Golf attitude to a Dawg fight.
cattledawg
September 16th, 2010
2:33 pm
Mark, this team had something going for it back around the allstar break. When you watched that team play there was a spark there that I dont see anymore. Whatever It was, is long gone now.
coachKR
September 16th, 2010
2:38 pm
They can still make the playoffs. But they are going to have to play more fundamental ball offensively. They don’t go oppo enough with men on base. And I still thinks Bobby Cox has earned the right to make whatever lineup he chooses. GO Braves!
Largo
September 16th, 2010
2:39 pm
Mark, you hit four out of five why nobody likes the braves anymore. I like the braves and don’t like the phillies. . .big time! But when the braves were six games in front of the phillies I bet my friend $10.00 the phillies would beat out the braves in the end. He was so disgusted he wanted to pay me yesterday after the nats won the game. I didn’t take the money and hope I lose but it sure doesn’t look good.
Andy
September 16th, 2010
2:39 pm
Winning 10 of 15 is nearly impossible when you consider that they have to play the Phils 6 times. They will be lucky to win 2 of those games. That means they have to go 8 and 1 in the other 9 games and I doubt they can do that. I think 8 and 7 is more realistic and that would still leave them with 91 wins. Traditionally, getting to 90 wins gets you in the playoffs but if the Giants and Rockies keep playing like they have been it may take 93-95 wins. I don’t think the Braves can go 10-5 or better in the next 15. I say they miss the playoffs by 1 game or they lose it in a playoff with the Giants/Padres/Rockies.
Billy Jack could fight
September 16th, 2010
2:39 pm
Chipper was hitting the ball well when he went down….we REALLY miss Chipper’s bat…these next 15 games we need timely hitting and we need to get our mojo back…it’s not rocket science…hopefully we get er done
bigclaude
September 16th, 2010
2:41 pm
A.J. Just because one is skeptical does not make them a fairweather fan. I have blindly supported all Atlanta pro sports teams (big 4) since I first began watching sports in 1980. In all that time Atlanta has delivered exactly one title. So forgive me if I have that sinking feeling that the old Atlanta magic is returning again. One can only be burned so many times before figuring out that it is best to stay away from the fire.
I will always support the Atlanta teams, but they sure make it almost impossible to remain positive while I’m doing so.
Chief pitchanono
September 16th, 2010
2:41 pm
I’m with ya Mark, yeah the Braves have been stink’n it up lately. But your right they have done enough to still be in a good postion to win the wildcard, not so much the division anymore, but they have to have a little luck and get hot soon, and they are overdue. We know this team can be very good, we just haven’t seen it in a while, but this team can easily turn things around and win this wildcard and even give the phills a run for their money with six games left with them. Heck were even as bad as its been, were still not that far off pace from the best record in the NL. This can still happen!
stevie zero
September 16th, 2010
2:43 pm
the top issue remains…. zero power. zero slugging. you cant rely on stringing 4 singles together to score. the pitching is enough. but with no power, no speed, below average baserunning,(heyward not withstanding) and flakey defense?….. pretty tough to win without late inning miracles. which seem all but spent. fun season, though
stevie zero
September 16th, 2010
2:44 pm
and farnsworth is the jinx of the decade
Ted Striker
September 16th, 2010
2:44 pm
You’re not talking to yourself. The Braves have been far too resilient all season to think that they won’t grit out the stretch.
Plus, Bobby has something up his sleeve — after 57 years of managing in the bigs — just to surprise his naysayers.
dobearsbare
September 16th, 2010
2:46 pm
Their chances of winning the wild card are iffy, which is a sad state of affairs when you consider that a couple months ago, they were a team some people were saying could go to the World Series. Let’s say they win the wild card. Guess what happens then? They play two road games. Not to put to fine a point on it, but they’re terrible on the road, and it now looks like the market correction for all their home success is taking place. Given their home/road splits, they really need to win the division, which isn’t happening.
All of which is a shame, because they have all this good pitching, and they’re wasting it. Don’t come at me with the whole, “well, they’ve scored as many runs as the Phillies” argument. Their RISP batting average has to be one of the worst in the league.
So here’s what we have to look forward to: A possible wild-card berth, wherein the team embarks on a 4-game loss to the Reds, followed by gobs of national barbs about how the Braves couldn’t sell out their two home playoff games and the fans in Atlanta are wannabes. Ugh.
Bat Masterson
September 16th, 2010
2:46 pm
aren’t all braves fans fair weather? there was 20 people there yesterday Brian McCann said he could here the toilets flushing from home plate _ philly rob
When it comes to fair weather fans no one can hold a candle to Phillie fans. I would post the facts to back that up but they are easy to find and I’m kind of bored with doing it.
The Atlanta Braves are the only team to draw at least 2.3 million fans for the past 18 years and counting. As recently as 7 years ago you Phillie clowns could not even draw 20,00 per game.
adam
September 16th, 2010
2:47 pm
this team is done, no clutch hitting, and now not getting
the starting pitching we need. maybe the trades must with
team chemistry,but braves have not played good in august and
sept.
Dr. Warren
September 16th, 2010
2:47 pm
Momentum seem everything in baseball. The Braves have none at the worst time. And they’re going on the road, where they are weak. I didn’t expect this collapse, but it appears it has happened.