Braves and Phillies: They’ll be seeing one another in the NLCS
Save that sign! It could be applicable come postseason. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
This should be a great race. The Braves saw Martin Prado return last week and swung the trade for Derrek Lee. The Phillies’ injured starters — Chase Utley, Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard — are injured no longer. We’re nearing September and we’re anticipating one of those down-to-the-final-weekend chases that emblazoned 1991 and 1993 in our memory, but …
It won’t happen.
After that 3-6 road trip that allowed the Phillies to creep close, the Braves have gone 13-6. As of this morning, the Braves led the Phils by 2 1/2 games — exactly the spread on Aug. 1, the day that road trip ended. Both clubs are tearing it up and both have geared up and we’re all getting geeked up, but two little words offer a reason to calm down. The words: “Wild card.”
The Phillies top the wild card standings by two games over St. Louis and San Francisco. Ergo, the Braves sit atop the final National League playoff spot on a 4 1/2-game cushion. Even if the Braves can’t hold off the Phillies — the belief here is that they can and will — they still have a fallback position.
The Cardinals are 9-8 in August; the Giants are 9-11. St. Louis is closer to the Reds, who lead the NL Central by 3 1/2 games, than to the Braves. San Francisco is six games behind the Padres in the West and has lost four of its past five series.
Of the Giants’ 37 remaining games, 22 are against teams above .500. Of the Cardinals’ 41 remaining games, 25 are against teams under .500. (This includes a postponed game against Florida, the makeup date for which hasn’t been set.) If either is apt to mount a late challenge, it’s going to be St. Louis, and the Cardinals seem a more pressing concern for the Reds than the Braves or Phillies.
For all the time we’ve spent casting our glance toward Philly, the cold truth is that both the Braves and the Phils are apt to play beyond the 162nd game. Charlie Manuel, the Phillies’ homespun manager, told reporters last week, “We don’t care about the wild card.” But it’s better to get into the playoffs, duh, than to sit at home. And we know from history that being the wild card is no impediment to postseason success.
From 2002 through 2007, every World Series included at least one wild-card qualifier, and three of those teams — the 2002 Angels, the 2003 Marlins and the 2004 Red Sox — won it all. And if the playoffs began today, the second-place Phils would probably be favored to emerge from the National League bracket. If you’re Philadelphia, which has won the NL East three seasons running and has reached the World Series the past two Octobers, all you want is to qualify.
Loading ...Yes, it’s different now. In 1991, the Braves and Dodgers spent every day from Aug. 22 on within two games of each other. In 1993 the Braves went from 9 1/2 behind the Giants on Aug. 9 to four ahead on Sept. 17 to tied after 161 games. Then Tom Glavine beat Colorado on the season’s final Sunday and David Justice hit a home run — that parlay would strike again in Game 6 of the 1995 World Series — and the Braves watched as the Giants, who finished with the best record in franchise history, lost to the Dodgers and took their 103 wins and went home.
That’s considered the Last Great Pennant Chase, for good reason. The wild card arrived in 1994, which was the strike year, and was implemented in 1995. The bulk of breathless baseball finishes since have involved the wild card, not a division title. An exception, sort of, came last year, when the Tigers blew a three-game lead with four to play and lost the AL Central to Minnesota in a one-game playoff. But even with the extra game, the Twins wound up with 87 victories.
The Braves already have 73. If they split their final 38 games, they’ll have 92 wins, and 92 wins has been enough to claim the National League wild card every season since 2002. Put simply, they’ll have to collapse not to make the playoffs. And they’re not going to collapse. Their pitching won’t allow it.
This team is going to make the playoffs. So is Charlie Manuel’s team. And they’ll see each other in mid-October, a World Series berth on the line.
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408 comments Add your comment
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:47 pm
but Bravissimo – you are in FIRST PLACE and your attendance sucks – what is up with that??
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:49 pm
so documented by SI is a fact – I don’t care if a bunch of hicks who know nothing about baseball where braves hats – the proof is in the pudding – average attendance of 30,000 and a game last week with 18,000 – all for a first place team
The Braves are lame.
BuckheadBrave
August 23rd, 2010
5:49 pm
Again, the notion of employment that doesn’t involve shirts with your name on it is too much for you to handle. There is no time clock, no whistle, when you have ya know, an annual salary. You aren’t paid by the hour, youre paid to work, whenever, wherever you have to. Atlanta is a white collar city with white collar jobs that don’t care if you have to miss a 7:00pm ball game on a Tuesday.
Bravissimo
August 23rd, 2010
5:49 pm
I cant speak for metro Atlanta, I dont live there.
How often do people from say Harrisburg make it to Phillies games during the week?
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:50 pm
College football obsession is for redneck southerners – that’s a fact
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:51 pm
hahaha, Atlanta white collar – go pick some cotton buddy, I think its that you are in bed by 7:00 PM so you can be up by 3:00 AM
BuckheadBrave
August 23rd, 2010
5:51 pm
Because we are a NATIONAL TEAM. The Yankees have had attendance problems since they priced out the blue collar crowd in their new stadium because their fans are spread out across the country. Boston only sells out their games because Fenway makes Bobby Dodd look like an English premier league stadium. National teams don’t have a purely local fan base to fill random weeknight games.
Bravissimo
August 23rd, 2010
5:52 pm
Oh please…tell that to Penn St fans
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:52 pm
downtown Atlanta is run by the North
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:53 pm
we like Penn St, we are not obsessed about college kids like the SEC – Peyton Manning was damn near a saint in tennessee
BuckheadBrave
August 23rd, 2010
5:53 pm
HAHAHA you are absolutely right DOWNTOWN Atlanta is run by the north. Thats why real Atlantans don’t go there i’m tired of all those northerners asking me for money.
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:54 pm
the braves are lame, and their fans are lame – enough said.
Empty Seat at Turner Field
August 23rd, 2010
5:54 pm
hello?? can anyone hear me???
Bravissimo
August 23rd, 2010
5:56 pm
BTW…you said u were a season tix holder…are u at the stadium?
A redneck dressed up as an empty seat or another actual empty seat at the TED?
August 23rd, 2010
5:59 pm
?
BuckheadBrave
August 23rd, 2010
6:00 pm
Philadelphia’s contribution to American culture is some left over steak slices with cheese wiz on it. Our best contribution as any good southerner knows is our women in sundresses on Saturdays, and that trumps everything. If you can look at a picture of the girls in the Grove, Toomer’s corner, FL-GA, Tennessee-Bama, or any other SEC tailgate on a saturday and still tell me it is better up north then you are gay, 12 years old, or a fat ugly woman. oh and BTW do you know where all those girls are in the summer, yeah thats right, at Braves games.
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
6:01 pm
yo bud, good memory, I leave around 6:30 when I don’t sell my tickets for a hefty profit – hopping on the sub in about a half hour
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
6:04 pm
show a little respect, Philadelphia is the birthplace of the nation, say what you will, but respect that bud
BuckheadBrave
August 23rd, 2010
6:05 pm
if you honestly think any self respecting southern girl can stand more than 5 min of that accent then you haven’t met very many.
BuckheadBrave
August 23rd, 2010
6:06 pm
Yeah well Atlanta is the birth place of a lot of those southern girls you like so much
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
6:12 pm
I do like those southern girls, and they love a northern guy, we are more complex, they dont like simple fools from the south for the most part, the smart ones anyway
alright, peace, i’m off to the CBP – Go Phils!
Coach (2011 or Bust)
August 23rd, 2010
6:13 pm
Braves and Phillies in the playoffs?
What I said about a week ago. But correct.
MitchC
August 23rd, 2010
6:17 pm
Phillies, what are you on? Seriously?
Best team to ever play major league baseball? OMG, are you for real?
Best modern dynasties. Yankees: Four WS titles in five years, including two against the Braves.
Braves: Like it or not. 14 straight division titles, five NL pennants, WS title, in fourteen years from 1991 to 2005.
No two teams even come close to the Braves and Yankees, with the exception of the Boston Red Sox, because of their WS wins in 2004 and 2007.
Phillies, try coming here, and popping off, after the Phillies win about eleven more division titles in a row, and three more World Series. Until then, their title, is just a “mini” run, just like your brain!
MitchC
August 23rd, 2010
6:22 pm
One of the Phillies fans talked about a “dynasty”. Are you guys for real?
Three division titles, and one World Series, oh wow!
A “Dynasty” is fourteen straight division titles, like the Braves had, or four World Series in five years, like the Yankees had from 1996 to 2000, or tweleve straight playoff appearances, as the Yankees had under Joe Torre from 1996 to 2007.
The Phillies? With three straight divisions, and one World Series. It will take you guys eleven more years, and three more WS wins, to match the Braves and Yankees streaks. Until then, all you guys have is a “mini” streak. I emphasize the word “mini”, just like most of your pea sized brains!
Please, come back, and post, when you all have something intelligent to say. Until then, all you sound like are a bunch of trolls clogging up our board!
MitchC
August 23rd, 2010
6:33 pm
To Mark: I apologize to you, Mark, if my comments seem sharp, and a bit uncivil. You know that normally, I post rational and intelligent comments. I just cant stand people who come to this board, solely for the purpose of making irrational, boasting, comments, that have nothing to do with reality.
The best way for both of these good teams to do their “Talking” is to win games on the field, and settle it there. The teams deserve it, as do the fans, with as well as both teams have played so far this season, through some major injuries for both sides.
Heath
August 23rd, 2010
6:54 pm
I love someone who writes at a 6th grade level calling others rednecks and telling them they didn’t go to college, “bud.”
The Krukker
August 23rd, 2010
6:57 pm
The Phillies have had major injuries, the Braves have had minor injuries
The Krukker
August 23rd, 2010
7:01 pm
Heath, you are a redneck ya’ll
Mr. Obvious
August 23rd, 2010
7:17 pm
I think the Braves will hold off the Phils, but only if they finish the season with a better won-loss record. Otherwise, I like the Braves’ chances for the wildcard, but only if they finish with a better won-loss record than the other wildcard contenders. If the Braves and the Phils meet in the NLCS, I like Atlanta’s chances, providing they manage to win 4 games out of a possible 7. And then the World Series…if the Braves somehow finish the storybook send-off for Bobby Cox with another trip to the Fall Classic, they will win it all if they can win 4 games before their AL opponents do the same. That’s where it gets real crazy, because in a seven game series, you can lose three games by an average score of 15-0 and it won’t matter if you can win four games by a single run.
The possibilities and uncertainties are mind-boggling, but that’s why we watch.
B.Packenwood
August 23rd, 2010
7:38 pm
Seems like the Phillies fans might want to be more concerned with Brett Myers striking them all out than the Braves blog. They could always throw batteries at Myers. Least deserving fans in the world.
Stanley Crowe
August 23rd, 2010
7:40 pm
Mike McDonald above makes some good points — the Braves outfield has to be a concern. I’m guessing that Jason and Melky step it up, and that Diaz and Hinske can come through enough in the clutch. Ankiel hasn’t really convinced me yet that his bat is going to be a huge asset, but he has speed and a great arm in center. The infield, I think, is solid offensively, and Derek Lee will be fine at first. On a contending club, he’ll want to end strong, and I believe he will. I count on McCann — but Mike’s point about his fatigue is a concern. I still think our rotation beats Philly’s, and I don’t underestimate Ostwalt and Hamels (whom I really admire as a competitor). I don’t like the dissing of Philly on these posts — they’re a darned good team (How can you not like Rollins, Werth, and Victorino; they won’t quit) but we play them well, and I think will continue to do so.
The Krukker
August 23rd, 2010
7:47 pm
The best catcher in the NL, Chooch Ruiz, hits a homer for the Phils first hit off of Myers – man, i love that little panamanian – CHOOOOOOOCH!!!!
Bravissimo
August 23rd, 2010
7:50 pm
ok krukman…u asked about 93
Phils….3,137,674 avg. 38,737
Braves…3,884,720 avg.47,960
So theres your stats and why arent u at your game tonite loser?
The Krukker
August 23rd, 2010
7:56 pm
i only have the Sunday game package bravissimo the dope
i didnt ask you to compare attendance in 93, i mentioned that the phillies had strong attendance at a horrible stadium with a good team
the braves have a first place team, and a supposedly good stadium – why can you draw only 30,000 per night and be 13th in attendance – THAT IS AWFUL
The Krukker
August 23rd, 2010
8:02 pm
Choooooch!!!!!
Heath
August 23rd, 2010
8:14 pm
http://onlineslangdictionary.com/definition+of/chooch
Asset
August 23rd, 2010
8:35 pm
Facing Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels those last 2 series won’t be exactly easy, but I don’t think it will be exactly hard. Will they struggle against Halladay? Probably. Will they hold their own with Hamels? Probably. Ask Oswalt what his history is versus the Braves. His highest ERA against any team comes from the Atlanta Braves.
tlj
August 23rd, 2010
9:21 pm
I agree with the phillies fans on paper they have a better team. Their offense is much better than ther braves, good defense, good starting pitching, average relief pitching and average bench. It appears they do have the better team.
Fortunately for the braves the games are not won on paper. This braves team has something the phillies do not have and it is magic. They are a team of destiny and I think they will find a way to beat the phillies and win the NL east.
Bravissimo
August 23rd, 2010
9:47 pm
Well where are all the “mighty” philly fans now that they LOST..ha
MitchC
August 23rd, 2010
10:08 pm
Phillies Loooooseeeeee!
Heath
August 23rd, 2010
10:10 pm
Carlos Leeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! El Caballo! I hear Chooch went up to him after the game and said “Show me how to play baseball, Daddy!”
Phillies, Joke of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
10:17 pm
fact: $140 million payroll and can’t beat a team that’s given up on the year
B.Packenwood
August 23rd, 2010
11:06 pm
Santa isnt safe in Philly tonight.
voice of reason
August 23rd, 2010
11:54 pm
when was hamels ever dominating watched the nats cuff him around the other dayy dominating wasnt the word that came to mind unglued kid did mabe hesa banging jen too lol
Bradley Jinx
August 24th, 2010
12:06 am
“Braves and Phillies: They’ll be seeing one another in the NLCS”
or, in other words, the Braves won’t make it and the Phillies will be swept in the first round.
Baldemar Huerta
August 24th, 2010
12:33 am
Hello 1993!
Henry
August 24th, 2010
9:14 am
Lee has hit 248 with 8 homers this year , he ias 1 for 14 with braves. bobby Cox was overruled , but is proving to be right .
Mr. . Thomas Anthony "The Taxman Cometh" Jones, SR
August 24th, 2010
10:25 am
Jason Heywerd, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins three best players in the NL!
Don
August 24th, 2010
10:27 am
If it comes to fan support in the stadium, then the Phillies have the edge. 101 straight sellouts, in a smaller market, with higher ticket prices. The best Braves team in 3 years can’t even sell out a game on a weekend – and it’s not even college football season yet. What gives, Braves fans? Where are you?
Don
August 24th, 2010
10:43 am
Last 3 games avg attendance 16,900. Pathetic.