Braves and Phillies: They’ll be seeing one another in the NLCS
Save that sign! It could be applicable come postseason. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
This should be a great race. The Braves saw Martin Prado return last week and swung the trade for Derrek Lee. The Phillies’ injured starters — Chase Utley, Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard — are injured no longer. We’re nearing September and we’re anticipating one of those down-to-the-final-weekend chases that emblazoned 1991 and 1993 in our memory, but …
It won’t happen.
After that 3-6 road trip that allowed the Phillies to creep close, the Braves have gone 13-6. As of this morning, the Braves led the Phils by 2 1/2 games — exactly the spread on Aug. 1, the day that road trip ended. Both clubs are tearing it up and both have geared up and we’re all getting geeked up, but two little words offer a reason to calm down. The words: “Wild card.”
The Phillies top the wild card standings by two games over St. Louis and San Francisco. Ergo, the Braves sit atop the final National League playoff spot on a 4 1/2-game cushion. Even if the Braves can’t hold off the Phillies — the belief here is that they can and will — they still have a fallback position.
The Cardinals are 9-8 in August; the Giants are 9-11. St. Louis is closer to the Reds, who lead the NL Central by 3 1/2 games, than to the Braves. San Francisco is six games behind the Padres in the West and has lost four of its past five series.
Of the Giants’ 37 remaining games, 22 are against teams above .500. Of the Cardinals’ 41 remaining games, 25 are against teams under .500. (This includes a postponed game against Florida, the makeup date for which hasn’t been set.) If either is apt to mount a late challenge, it’s going to be St. Louis, and the Cardinals seem a more pressing concern for the Reds than the Braves or Phillies.
For all the time we’ve spent casting our glance toward Philly, the cold truth is that both the Braves and the Phils are apt to play beyond the 162nd game. Charlie Manuel, the Phillies’ homespun manager, told reporters last week, “We don’t care about the wild card.” But it’s better to get into the playoffs, duh, than to sit at home. And we know from history that being the wild card is no impediment to postseason success.
From 2002 through 2007, every World Series included at least one wild-card qualifier, and three of those teams — the 2002 Angels, the 2003 Marlins and the 2004 Red Sox — won it all. And if the playoffs began today, the second-place Phils would probably be favored to emerge from the National League bracket. If you’re Philadelphia, which has won the NL East three seasons running and has reached the World Series the past two Octobers, all you want is to qualify.
Loading ...Yes, it’s different now. In 1991, the Braves and Dodgers spent every day from Aug. 22 on within two games of each other. In 1993 the Braves went from 9 1/2 behind the Giants on Aug. 9 to four ahead on Sept. 17 to tied after 161 games. Then Tom Glavine beat Colorado on the season’s final Sunday and David Justice hit a home run — that parlay would strike again in Game 6 of the 1995 World Series — and the Braves watched as the Giants, who finished with the best record in franchise history, lost to the Dodgers and took their 103 wins and went home.
That’s considered the Last Great Pennant Chase, for good reason. The wild card arrived in 1994, which was the strike year, and was implemented in 1995. The bulk of breathless baseball finishes since have involved the wild card, not a division title. An exception, sort of, came last year, when the Tigers blew a three-game lead with four to play and lost the AL Central to Minnesota in a one-game playoff. But even with the extra game, the Twins wound up with 87 victories.
The Braves already have 73. If they split their final 38 games, they’ll have 92 wins, and 92 wins has been enough to claim the National League wild card every season since 2002. Put simply, they’ll have to collapse not to make the playoffs. And they’re not going to collapse. Their pitching won’t allow it.
This team is going to make the playoffs. So is Charlie Manuel’s team. And they’ll see each other in mid-October, a World Series berth on the line.
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408 comments Add your comment
43,500 + standing room only every night
August 23rd, 2010
4:58 pm
I will break you!
Will
August 23rd, 2010
4:59 pm
Is it possible that the Phils may not even make the playoffs at all? Just sayin!
The Krukker
August 23rd, 2010
4:59 pm
wow, the golden unicorn, a braves fan that has actually been to the stadium
Ryan
August 23rd, 2010
4:59 pm
Mark – The Phils aren’t exactly a lock for the playoffs. Actually according to baseball prospectus’ post season probabilty the Cards and Phils are basically neck and neck, even though the Phils have a higher wild card chance. I think that’s mostly because the Phils have more games on the road remaining on their schedule and are one of the few NL playoff teams that have a remaining schedule with a win % above 500.
skyler
August 23rd, 2010
5:00 pm
please stop jinxing the braves…if it happens, it happens
The Krukker
August 23rd, 2010
5:02 pm
Choooooooooooch…
18,000 Strong
August 23rd, 2010
5:03 pm
Hola Phillies fans, I am a sad number am I not?
Bob Horners texting while driving issues
August 23rd, 2010
5:04 pm
Not really Sukker-It is a bummer to win 14 division title and only one WS. The Braves are gonna have to put out a better product- this aint Philly- we live in a nice place- Five hours to FLA beaches, 30 minits to the lake- an hour to the mountains.
Heck, I can be at a AAA Braves game in 20 minits. I will go to a couple Braves games a year. If I lived in a crappy northeastern city- yeah I would hop on the train, buy some cheap seats and go every chance I could.
BuckheadBrave
August 23rd, 2010
5:09 pm
When i want to see Philly fans I watch the Jersey Shore. I live in Atlanta and i’ve been to at least 50 games this year and every single one of them had over 30,000, if we played in a little league park like citizens bank it’d be sold out. Now go crawl back into bed with snooki and put on some bon jovi,
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:10 pm
bob horner, you are wrong, the seats aren’t cheap, we are one hour from the beach and two hours from the mountains – such a great part of the country
being a braves fan makes you apathetic, i know
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:11 pm
hmmmm, so CBP holds 43,500, so how would you sell it out Buckhead Brave – I don’t understand your redneck logic
BuckheadBrave
August 23rd, 2010
5:12 pm
The jersey shore is hardly a beach, more like a trash heap.
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:13 pm
fact: the Atlanta Braves are 13th in average attendance and had a game last week with only 18,000 fans
fact: that is PATHETIC
BuckheadBrave
August 23rd, 2010
5:14 pm
i have been to new jersey/pa more times than i care to remember and TRUST me, if there is a place where the redneck culture lives on it is there. BIG difference between country and redneck, redneck is trash and thats what the northeast does best.
BuckheadBrave
August 23rd, 2010
5:15 pm
you know why Phillies fan because Atlanta is one of the most educated cities on the PLANET and we have jobs that make it hard to get to a 7:00pm game. There is no whistle in my office to let me know its 5:00 like there is at your textile mill.
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:16 pm
fact: the 2005-2010 Philadelphia Phillies are the Best Team to ever play Major League Baseball
Joseph
August 23rd, 2010
5:16 pm
Does anyone know why CBP sells out? They are winning! What happens if that stops and the bandwagon comes to a halt? Please stop with all the fan junk, it’s means nothing! Wins and loses are all that matter. You Phillies’s fans on this blog got on the train in the last 3 years hugh? Enjoy the ride while you can!
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:17 pm
fact: Atlanta is a truly horrible city with the worst fans in baseball
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:18 pm
and yet, the Braves are winning and still CANNOT sell out their stadium?
Joseph
August 23rd, 2010
5:19 pm
5:16 Phillies,Class of the NL you must be 12 years old to post that comment. Are you kidding? You showed your hand!
The Krukker
August 23rd, 2010
5:19 pm
in all honesty then Joseph, what does it say about Atlanta that you cannot sell out your stadium when in first place? seriously?
BuckheadBrave
August 23rd, 2010
5:19 pm
hahaha OH MY GOD now thats funny.
A glorified Barry Bonds at 1st base. Other teams flash in the pan trash like Jayson Werth. Extremely overrated Victorino and the even more overrated Cole Hammles, not quite the 1927 Yankees. Your best player Chase Utley wouldn’t even be an upgrade over his Atlanta counterpart at 2b.
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:20 pm
its a fact Joseph, the BEST team to ever play – do you know what a fact is Joseph, you can’t argue a fact
Duluth's Finest
August 23rd, 2010
5:20 pm
Joe, know when someone is pulling your leg, come on…
Joseph
August 23rd, 2010
5:21 pm
I actually don’t live in Georgia and yet make it to at least a few games a year. Sorry this attendence thing bothers you all so much, but Wins and Loses are all that matter!
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:21 pm
ahhh the Phillies haters, gotta love them, so jealous
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:22 pm
hey Joe, learn to spell – its losses, not loses, didn’t go to college did ya joey?
Bruce Mac
August 23rd, 2010
5:22 pm
The Braves average 30,000 fans which is higher than Cincy, Texas, Tampa or San Diego (four other playoff teams if the season was over today). Philly has 2 Million more people and is 1 hour away from New York City. Does Atlanta have the best fan support? No, but far from the worst.
BuckheadBrave
August 23rd, 2010
5:24 pm
Is your mom not home to regulate your internet? Why are you on an Atlanta blog? I wouldn’t go to the Philly Inquirer site because I don’t want to sift through the rape, murder, robbery, and all the other lovely stories you have up there to find your sports section. I also wouldn’t want to risk having to see an image of our latest piece of trash we sent away to you, Micheal Vick. You are the nations dump both figuratively and literally i suppose.
Joseph
August 23rd, 2010
5:24 pm
thanks professor CLASSY!
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:25 pm
why would an MLB Ballplayer want to play in Atlanta? just an awful, dead, town with awful fan support
Braves #1
August 23rd, 2010
5:26 pm
Hey stupid Phillies fans, we are in first place, whose laffing now?
Joseph
August 23rd, 2010
5:26 pm
Thanks Classy!
BuckheadBrave
August 23rd, 2010
5:26 pm
Yeah dead town so dead. You realize Newsweek determined that from 2000-2009 Atlanta was the fastest growing human settlement in the history of mankind. Yeah, nothing going on here. Moron.
The Krukker
August 23rd, 2010
5:26 pm
Braves #1
August 23rd, 2010
5:26 pm
Hey stupid Phillies fans, we are in first place, whose laffing now?
Wow, I mean, wow
Braves #1
August 23rd, 2010
5:27 pm
Why do the Phillies come on here when we are in first place and they are behind us?
BuckheadBrave
August 23rd, 2010
5:29 pm
I tell you what. If you promise to stop sending any more of your HORRIFIC accents and even more HORRIFIC looking women down here then we will give you John Kincaide back. I can’t listen to the yankee screech on my radio anymore anyway.
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:29 pm
Well, my dear Braves fan #1 out of 18,000 – we don’t care what place we are in, in ugust, unlike your simple brain…we care that our team wins when it matters, and we have a score to settle with the Yankees from last year – we really don’t even care about you
Bravissimo
August 23rd, 2010
5:33 pm
Phillies come lately…go look up the stats for attendance of the Phils for 2000,2001 and 2002…they didnt even top 2,000,000. In 2000 the avg attendance was 19,911.
Guess that means theres a lot of fair weather fans there.
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:37 pm
Bravissimo
August 23rd, 2010
5:33 pm
Phillies come lately…go look up the stats for attendance of the Phils for 2000,2001 and 2002…they didnt even top 2,000,000. In 2000 the avg attendance was 19,911.
Guess that means theres a lot of fair weather fans there.
I was hoping someone would go there – at that point we were in a similar situation that the pirates are in right now – our front office was not trying to win, they were putting a subpar product on the field — Philadelphia fans are not stupid, we know when we are being hosed, and we will not stupidly throw our money behind that — BUT, when our front office and our team are putting forth the effort to win, then everything comes together
BuckheadBrave
August 23rd, 2010
5:38 pm
I love how Phillies fan just flat out refuses to argue about actually facts regarding his sh**hole home town. Here is another one Forbes ranked Philadelphia the #20 most miserable city, in the same year Atlanta was the best city for singles and in the top 10 for educated individuals, places for recent grads, and places for young professionals. Oh yeah, but we are a dead horrible town that nobody would want to come near, except of course the droves of Philadelphians that continue to pollute every aspect of our daily life.
The Krukker
August 23rd, 2010
5:38 pm
because we don’t support futility – our management was not committed to winning for a lot of the 80s and 90s – what is the first place braves excuse??? look up the 1993 Phillies attendance playing in the horrible Vet you idiot.
The Krukker
August 23rd, 2010
5:39 pm
there are probably more yankees fans in atlanta than braves fans
BuckheadBrave
August 23rd, 2010
5:41 pm
Again the idea of employment that doesn’t end with punching a time clock at the end of a shift completely eludes the mouth breathers. Let me try another approach, when you are paid in a number that has ANNUALLY after it, work doesnt ever really end aaaand you kinda have to give up 7:00 pm weeknight baseball games.
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:42 pm
the only way Atlanta could boom is when educated Northeasters take over your city
Atlanta is an apathetic, transient city, as in, it has been taken over by outsiders and you can’t even fill your own ballpark
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
5:43 pm
Hey Buckhead Brave, lets grab some jerky and some chaw and call it a night ya hear?
Mike McDonald
August 23rd, 2010
5:43 pm
In this, the final quarter of the 2010 season, a two game lead for the Braves in the loss column is paper thin. It could vanish within a single three game series. The Braves have a sub-par outfield, certainly not of championship caliber by a long shot. (Cabrera, Ankiel, Hayward, Diaz, and Hinske). First base is far from fixed based on Lee’s performance at
the plate in his first three games and reports of his physical condition and a .250 BA.
Lowe has been shaky at best and Hanson hasn’t been too handsome of late.
Hudson has been great, JJ has been good and Minor has been a major surprise. Overall
the pitching has carried the team along with Infante and Prado performing sensationally. Prado is still not out of the woods with his broken pinky. McCann has looked dog-tired for too long and his numbers this year, particularly of late, reflect his fall-off, especially in the clutch.
I see no reason to believe that the outfield bats and defense will dramatically improve down the stretch when every AB and fielding act has to be superb.
The Braves have been very lucky that the Phils and the Mets have had their problems while their late inning miracle comebacks have defied gravity. Lady luck is fickle and doesn’t last for 162 games
While it is said that good pitching beats good hitting, the records clearly show that good pitching without above average defense at every position and a .275+ BA for position players will not win a spot in the playoffs, let alone win the Series.
The money squandered on Lowe, McLouth, Kawakami will come home to roost. As will the trades of Yunel and Kelly who should have stayed in the OF. A rag tag array of inexpensive retreads such as Lee, Glaus, Hinske, Gonzalez, Cabrera, Diaz, Saito and Moylan won’t be able to pick up the slack.
Bobby and his quirky decisions and toleration of the team’s inability to bunt will further
diminish the Braves’ run for the roses.
Bravissimo
August 23rd, 2010
5:44 pm
Well…theres your answer then…Liberty (who owns the Braves) are cheapskates and have steadfastly refused to spend $$$. Theres been some really braindead moves made. Like selling the farm in the Texceira deal.
We havent been to the playoffs since ‘05…kinda makes it hard to convince me to go…not to mention that im 3+ hours from ATL.
But…Ill promise you the place will be full against your team.
just for comparison in 2001 while philly had 1,782,054 Atl had 2,823530.
So if your train derails…i suspect our attendance figures will flip flop.
Phil my Krukker
August 23rd, 2010
5:44 pm
2010 Phillies Payroll – $141,927,381
2010 Braves Payroll – $84,423,667
Looks like you paid $57,503,714 for two 2.5 less wins… hahahaha
BuckheadBrave
August 23rd, 2010
5:45 pm
Outsiders? It is the mecca of southern culture, one of the few areas of the United States that actually has a distinct culture. Go into any office in Atlanta and there are people from Ole Miss, Bama, Florida, Georgia, Auburn, Tennessee, all the great southern schools and we are ALL Braves fans. You realize that the Atlanta Braves are the third most popular team ranked by SI after the Yankees and Red Sox, oh i’m sorry there I go dealing in actually documented facts again.