Braves and Phillies: They’ll be seeing one another in the NLCS
Save that sign! It could be applicable come postseason. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
This should be a great race. The Braves saw Martin Prado return last week and swung the trade for Derrek Lee. The Phillies’ injured starters — Chase Utley, Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard — are injured no longer. We’re nearing September and we’re anticipating one of those down-to-the-final-weekend chases that emblazoned 1991 and 1993 in our memory, but …
It won’t happen.
After that 3-6 road trip that allowed the Phillies to creep close, the Braves have gone 13-6. As of this morning, the Braves led the Phils by 2 1/2 games — exactly the spread on Aug. 1, the day that road trip ended. Both clubs are tearing it up and both have geared up and we’re all getting geeked up, but two little words offer a reason to calm down. The words: “Wild card.”
The Phillies top the wild card standings by two games over St. Louis and San Francisco. Ergo, the Braves sit atop the final National League playoff spot on a 4 1/2-game cushion. Even if the Braves can’t hold off the Phillies — the belief here is that they can and will — they still have a fallback position.
The Cardinals are 9-8 in August; the Giants are 9-11. St. Louis is closer to the Reds, who lead the NL Central by 3 1/2 games, than to the Braves. San Francisco is six games behind the Padres in the West and has lost four of its past five series.
Of the Giants’ 37 remaining games, 22 are against teams above .500. Of the Cardinals’ 41 remaining games, 25 are against teams under .500. (This includes a postponed game against Florida, the makeup date for which hasn’t been set.) If either is apt to mount a late challenge, it’s going to be St. Louis, and the Cardinals seem a more pressing concern for the Reds than the Braves or Phillies.
For all the time we’ve spent casting our glance toward Philly, the cold truth is that both the Braves and the Phils are apt to play beyond the 162nd game. Charlie Manuel, the Phillies’ homespun manager, told reporters last week, “We don’t care about the wild card.” But it’s better to get into the playoffs, duh, than to sit at home. And we know from history that being the wild card is no impediment to postseason success.
From 2002 through 2007, every World Series included at least one wild-card qualifier, and three of those teams — the 2002 Angels, the 2003 Marlins and the 2004 Red Sox — won it all. And if the playoffs began today, the second-place Phils would probably be favored to emerge from the National League bracket. If you’re Philadelphia, which has won the NL East three seasons running and has reached the World Series the past two Octobers, all you want is to qualify.
Loading ...Yes, it’s different now. In 1991, the Braves and Dodgers spent every day from Aug. 22 on within two games of each other. In 1993 the Braves went from 9 1/2 behind the Giants on Aug. 9 to four ahead on Sept. 17 to tied after 161 games. Then Tom Glavine beat Colorado on the season’s final Sunday and David Justice hit a home run — that parlay would strike again in Game 6 of the 1995 World Series — and the Braves watched as the Giants, who finished with the best record in franchise history, lost to the Dodgers and took their 103 wins and went home.
That’s considered the Last Great Pennant Chase, for good reason. The wild card arrived in 1994, which was the strike year, and was implemented in 1995. The bulk of breathless baseball finishes since have involved the wild card, not a division title. An exception, sort of, came last year, when the Tigers blew a three-game lead with four to play and lost the AL Central to Minnesota in a one-game playoff. But even with the extra game, the Twins wound up with 87 victories.
The Braves already have 73. If they split their final 38 games, they’ll have 92 wins, and 92 wins has been enough to claim the National League wild card every season since 2002. Put simply, they’ll have to collapse not to make the playoffs. And they’re not going to collapse. Their pitching won’t allow it.
This team is going to make the playoffs. So is Charlie Manuel’s team. And they’ll see each other in mid-October, a World Series berth on the line.
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408 comments Add your comment
Phil
August 23rd, 2010
2:32 pm
We’re going into the playoffs behind the 8 ball with Cox as our manager. Everybody knows his record, the Losingest manager in the history of baseball post season. That’s a pretty big mountain to climb.
I hope our players can overcome that.
Pierce
August 23rd, 2010
2:38 pm
did i miss something? does the season end at the end of august now?
Puppet Please!!
August 23rd, 2010
2:39 pm
Pierce, YOUR fan base is pathetic, as well as RUDE, CRUDE and OBNOXIOUS. If I lived in Philly I wouldn’t go to a game just BECAUSE of the fans…you guys are LOSERS in life!!
Why don’t you suck on a can of Cheez Whiz and and get a Beef Steak enema, jackhole!
Chief pitchanono
August 23rd, 2010
2:41 pm
Good call Mark, I agree it will be braves vs. the phills for the NLCS. I think the Braves will hold on and win this division and yes it will probably come down to the final two series with the phills to decide the winner/wildcard. I see those last six games between them being a little preview of the NLCS. More than likely the teams will split those six games with the home team winning one series each. With us haveing the last series at home I think the Braves endup winning the division. Which is the way it should be. If our pitching holds up I see us winning a seven game series, minor could be our ace in the hole as far as philly is concerned, I could see them haveing allot of trouble with him. With that said, we have allot of baseball to be played yet and anything could happen, hopefully no more significant injuries to eithher team, and may the best team win. Go Braves!
Puppet Please!!
August 23rd, 2010
2:42 pm
No it doesn’t Pierce so quit acting like you guys are the Kings of baseball.
Casey Stinkle
August 23rd, 2010
2:43 pm
We have been hearing your crap Carl ever since the all-star break. We will catch you by this weekend…we have better pitching, defense,….blah blah blah. Well we are almost to Labor Day, and the Phils are still in the rear view mirror ( I know, objects are closer than they appear, right?)
Joseph
August 23rd, 2010
2:44 pm
@Pierce- you got what you wanted, Puppet Please!! is now fired up and doing the same thing that MOST of your fans do on the inquirer! There is a lot of baseball to play, but Pierce I have one question for you. Would you have ever thought that on the 23rd of August you would not be in 1st place? Trailing the Braves at that? That’s why we follow this game, quit mouthing off and let’s wait and see what happens!
Pierce
August 23rd, 2010
2:44 pm
way to go puppet. i’m the one that is pathetic right?
read through your comment again and see who the obnoxious rude crude one is?
not me bro i dont need to talk like that to prove a point
The Krukker
August 23rd, 2010
2:45 pm
the 2-time defending NL Champions are just the better team – we will all see that over the final month – the Braves have done a good job of keeping first place warm
The Krukker
August 23rd, 2010
2:46 pm
its great that the braves fans are so happy to be in first in August – its a shame for them the season doesn’t end now
Joseph
August 23rd, 2010
2:46 pm
John Kruk is here now! Thank’s Kruk for your insight!
Pierce
August 23rd, 2010
2:48 pm
i am not mouthing off. i just know its along season.
and i am not surprised the phillies are not in first place with all the injuries they have had this season.
this will be only the 7th time all year tonite there regular position players will be in the line-up together not to mention the struggles of the bull pen. i will take where we are at right now and run with it
Jesse Stone
August 23rd, 2010
2:49 pm
Phil- And Reggie Jackson is the career leader in strikeouts by a batter. What’s your point?
Carl
August 23rd, 2010
2:49 pm
@Casey Stinkle
The Phillies don’t HAVE to win the division….that’s what the W.C is for. I don’t think the Phils have to “catch” the Braves when the lead could be 1 in the loss column at the end of the day.
W.C or division title, I still think the Phils would beat the Braves in a NLCS matchup.
Your late inning comebacks are only covering up your flaws. One of which is the fact that you don’t score off the opposing starting pitcher. I’m not sure if you’re can rely on late inning comebacks when you get in the playoffs but crazier things have happened.
Joseph
August 23rd, 2010
2:51 pm
Pierce- should the Phillies be in 1st place now? If they don’t catch the Braves which I realize you think is not possible, what would that say about your beloved Phillies?
James
August 23rd, 2010
2:51 pm
Braves and Cardinals will meet in the NLCS. Braves will beat the Cardinals and face the Tampa Bay Rays in the World Series. Braves will defeat the Rays. Braves 2010 World Series Champions!
DawgDad
August 23rd, 2010
2:53 pm
I don’t think I’m mistaken in noting the level of angst among Braves fans has subsided remarkably in the span of one week. Last week at this time you’d find 500 gut-wrenching posts on every Braves thread talking about what to do about first base, replacing Chipper, getting more power, canning Ankiel, fire Pendleton, Cox can’t manage, etc. etc. Look what ONE little waiver deal accomplished in terms of perception! Don’t think that didn’t register in the Braves and Phillies locker rooms, either. If Lee can rack up a few RBI’s in Colorado and the Braves come home with another series win I think we’ll see a very confident and relaxed team heading into the stretch run.
Casey Stinkle
August 23rd, 2010
2:53 pm
No Pierce, they probably will not sell out because every year the Braves have gotten in, they seem to draw the afternoon games, while Ny and Boston get the prime time games (ESPN’s boys). Most people down here have a job, and just can’t up and go to the games like most rust belt retirees.
Joseph
August 23rd, 2010
2:55 pm
Carl- please don’t forget about your bullpen which is propted up on Lidge. I will say this, “IF” LIdge proves me wrong and stays solid after his next blown save, then your Phillie’s will be tough for sure. I just do not think he has it in him. If his armour gets chinked he seems to fall fast and HARD!
ICEMANcometh10
August 23rd, 2010
2:56 pm
HEY PIERCE
How soon we forget Phillies fans that BEFORE a couple of few years ago you DIDN’T SELL OUT A SHOE. You are not the franchise you think you are and if you think it is don’t ever blog again in this town.
Hey dude look at your history and you will go hide………………LOL
B.Packenwood
August 23rd, 2010
2:56 pm
If you just jinked us Mark I am going to kick you in the berries.
Pierce
August 23rd, 2010
2:58 pm
it’s going to be a fun month!
DawgDad
August 23rd, 2010
2:59 pm
“I just don’t want Bobby Cox to head off into retirement like Sweet Loser Pinella. That was almost sad.”
No, that was TOTALLY PATHETIC!
Carl
August 23rd, 2010
2:59 pm
@Joseph
If Lidge implodes down the stretch then of course we’ll have issues but he’s looked solid as of late. He’s been loctaing his fastball well and sacrificing some speed.
Carl
August 23rd, 2010
3:00 pm
@Icemancometh10
Do you really want to be bring up history and past failures?
Pierce
August 23rd, 2010
3:01 pm
i’nm not saying we sold out every game before this run but if we had a first place team that is playing as good as the braves are this season you bet your ass the ball park would be sold out.
Ramblin Wrecker
August 23rd, 2010
3:04 pm
Mark,
Who exactly says not to draft college pitchers?
Roger Clemens
Tim Hudson
Stephen Strasburg
Tim Lincecum
David Price
I think that’s just stupid. And if anybody’s opinion should be valued about evaluating pitching talent…it should be the Braves.
Jair Jurrjens – acquired for an old Edgar Renteria
Tommy Hanson – 22nd round
Kris Medlen – 10th round
Jonny Venters – 30th round
Peter Moylan – signed off Austrailian WBC team
Point is, pitching is pitching, regardless of where they are drafted from or when they are drafted. And Mike Minor was a U.S. teammate of Strasburg, and was reportedly more impressive against their opponents than the wunderkind.
What I’ve seen is a confident kid who is composed and has stuff that he knows how to use beyond his years. I don’t care what his ceiling is…because right now he misses bats and can win. What else does he need to do?
Jameytime
August 23rd, 2010
3:06 pm
ATLANTA SPORTS FANS ARE BACK!!!!! http://TwitPWR.com/OcA/
Pierce
August 23rd, 2010
3:06 pm
i don’t need to look at the history, i’ve lived the history of the most losingest franchise in sports. believe me! and i have enjoyed myself the last four years!
Denny
August 23rd, 2010
3:08 pm
At least when we blow the division lead next month and then miss out on the wild card we can all blame Bradley for his cursing us with ignorant prognostications.
JASon
August 23rd, 2010
3:10 pm
If the Phillies have home field advantage in a series, they will win. They have been untouchable (suspiciously) at home since July 8th. The Braves need to win the division or else it will be the Phillies in the World Series.
Joseph
August 23rd, 2010
3:11 pm
Respect that Pierce- I live and die with the Braves no matter what! It sure is good to be alive in 1st Place right now!!!
Bravissimo
August 23rd, 2010
3:21 pm
James @2:51…I like the way you think..my bro in law is a big cards fan, and i have relatives in St. Pete…I could make some fun phone calls..Go Bravos!!
On a side note…any guesses on how much Tigers now ex got in the divorce settlement?…Hell be playing for a LONG time is my guess
NCBravesFan
August 23rd, 2010
3:23 pm
Is anyone else tired of hearing the Phillies’ fans whine about the team’s injuries? As if we haven’t had our own issues to deal with (Chipper, Glaus, Prado, Heyward, Medlen)?
You’re in second place – deal with it and quit making excuses!
The Krukker
August 23rd, 2010
3:25 pm
I’m glad Pierce has pointed out the attendance at Braves games – that is really quite sad – they have been in first place the majority of the season and they only average about 30,000 fans – i heard there was less than 20,000 at a game last week??? what kind of a joke city is atlanta?
The Krukker
August 23rd, 2010
3:27 pm
hey NCBraves fan moron – the Phillies injuries are a fact, we were the most injured team in MLB, BY FAR, this year — it is great that we are only 2.5 out, that is a great place to be – get ready to give up first, should take about 2 weeks or so…
Phil Up My Cup
August 23rd, 2010
3:28 pm
hey ohhhhhh…Phillies are coming! Phillies are coming! What will the rednecks do???
Blackberry Cobbler
August 23rd, 2010
3:28 pm
The Braves still need more power (Lee was 1 for Chicago) and the Braves pitching is really suspect ala Lowe and Hanson.
MitchC
August 23rd, 2010
3:29 pm
Mark, I agree with you that the Braves and Phillies will likely meet in the NLCS. While I see your point about not thinking the Braves will blow their NL East lead, and I want to agree with you, my feeling is, that, if the Braves want to have a chance of winning the NLCS, they CANT blow their division lead, because, as we know, the division champ has home field advantage in such a series with the wild card team, and, the Braves are a very poor road team. Playing a potential Game Seven of an NLCS at Turner, looks a lot better to me then playing a potential Game Seven of an NLCS in Philadelphia.
The Braves do play a lot of weak teams down the stretch. (The Metropolitans seven times, Washington two more series) Hopefully, that will work to their advantage. Considering that Philly has all their people healthy now, it wouldnt surpise me a bit to see them get very hot.
That last weekend in Atlanta might mean something, as far as who wins what. Obviously, after five years, I just want the Braves to get to the playoffs. It would make me feel a lot better, though, knowing it was as the NL East champ, than as a wild card.
Duluth's Finest
August 23rd, 2010
3:29 pm
Let’s Go Braves – Let’s start selling out the Ted so these Philthies fans can shut up
The Krukker
August 23rd, 2010
3:31 pm
What difference does home field mean for the Braves anyway, we all know you won’t sell the game out – the stands will be full of apathy as they always are in hotLanta.
Keith
August 23rd, 2010
3:31 pm
Your blog accentuates the point of needing homefield advantage @ Turner Field…I usually don’t say this, but I’m not ready for football yet…not quite anyway.
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
3:32 pm
niiice to see the Phils faithful out in full force down here – - BOOM…BOOM…BOOM…the Phillies are bearing down on you…BOOM…BOOM…BOOM…
Keith
August 23rd, 2010
3:33 pm
I love how the Phillies continue to use their time trolling the Braves’ blogs…humors me.
joe
August 23rd, 2010
3:33 pm
Mark, the fact that the Braves can go into an offensive funk doesn’t shock me (given that most of their team hits .250) but the fact that the Phillies can go into a scoring drought for games at a time is a surprise! This even happened earlier in the season before their rash of injuries….
Pierce
August 23rd, 2010
3:33 pm
there’s no excuses here you guys are in first now and deserve it.
we have had our struggles this year injuries aside.
Keith
August 23rd, 2010
3:33 pm
*Phillies’ fans*
fightins
August 23rd, 2010
3:34 pm
I have a bet with a scumbag Yankee fan friend of mine that the Phillies will win the NL East by 5 or more games — my only worry is resting players in that last week – oh well
NCBravesFan
August 23rd, 2010
3:34 pm
The Krukker: nice way to call names when it’s pointed out to you that you aren’t the only ones who have had injuries. Stop whining and play ball. We’ll see who wins out in September.
Phillies, Class of the NL
August 23rd, 2010
3:36 pm
shut your mouth Keith and take your medicine – The Bravos are about to feel what its like to be steamrolled by a real baseball team – ya’ll better hope for the Wildcard ya hear?