Braves and Phillies: They’ll be seeing one another in the NLCS
Save that sign! It could be applicable come postseason. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
This should be a great race. The Braves saw Martin Prado return last week and swung the trade for Derrek Lee. The Phillies’ injured starters — Chase Utley, Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard — are injured no longer. We’re nearing September and we’re anticipating one of those down-to-the-final-weekend chases that emblazoned 1991 and 1993 in our memory, but …
It won’t happen.
After that 3-6 road trip that allowed the Phillies to creep close, the Braves have gone 13-6. As of this morning, the Braves led the Phils by 2 1/2 games — exactly the spread on Aug. 1, the day that road trip ended. Both clubs are tearing it up and both have geared up and we’re all getting geeked up, but two little words offer a reason to calm down. The words: “Wild card.”
The Phillies top the wild card standings by two games over St. Louis and San Francisco. Ergo, the Braves sit atop the final National League playoff spot on a 4 1/2-game cushion. Even if the Braves can’t hold off the Phillies — the belief here is that they can and will — they still have a fallback position.
The Cardinals are 9-8 in August; the Giants are 9-11. St. Louis is closer to the Reds, who lead the NL Central by 3 1/2 games, than to the Braves. San Francisco is six games behind the Padres in the West and has lost four of its past five series.
Of the Giants’ 37 remaining games, 22 are against teams above .500. Of the Cardinals’ 41 remaining games, 25 are against teams under .500. (This includes a postponed game against Florida, the makeup date for which hasn’t been set.) If either is apt to mount a late challenge, it’s going to be St. Louis, and the Cardinals seem a more pressing concern for the Reds than the Braves or Phillies.
For all the time we’ve spent casting our glance toward Philly, the cold truth is that both the Braves and the Phils are apt to play beyond the 162nd game. Charlie Manuel, the Phillies’ homespun manager, told reporters last week, “We don’t care about the wild card.” But it’s better to get into the playoffs, duh, than to sit at home. And we know from history that being the wild card is no impediment to postseason success.
From 2002 through 2007, every World Series included at least one wild-card qualifier, and three of those teams — the 2002 Angels, the 2003 Marlins and the 2004 Red Sox — won it all. And if the playoffs began today, the second-place Phils would probably be favored to emerge from the National League bracket. If you’re Philadelphia, which has won the NL East three seasons running and has reached the World Series the past two Octobers, all you want is to qualify.
Loading ...Yes, it’s different now. In 1991, the Braves and Dodgers spent every day from Aug. 22 on within two games of each other. In 1993 the Braves went from 9 1/2 behind the Giants on Aug. 9 to four ahead on Sept. 17 to tied after 161 games. Then Tom Glavine beat Colorado on the season’s final Sunday and David Justice hit a home run — that parlay would strike again in Game 6 of the 1995 World Series — and the Braves watched as the Giants, who finished with the best record in franchise history, lost to the Dodgers and took their 103 wins and went home.
That’s considered the Last Great Pennant Chase, for good reason. The wild card arrived in 1994, which was the strike year, and was implemented in 1995. The bulk of breathless baseball finishes since have involved the wild card, not a division title. An exception, sort of, came last year, when the Tigers blew a three-game lead with four to play and lost the AL Central to Minnesota in a one-game playoff. But even with the extra game, the Twins wound up with 87 victories.
The Braves already have 73. If they split their final 38 games, they’ll have 92 wins, and 92 wins has been enough to claim the National League wild card every season since 2002. Put simply, they’ll have to collapse not to make the playoffs. And they’re not going to collapse. Their pitching won’t allow it.
This team is going to make the playoffs. So is Charlie Manuel’s team. And they’ll see each other in mid-October, a World Series berth on the line.
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408 comments Add your comment
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
August 23rd, 2010
12:42 pm
my mistake MB- if im not mistaken, all 6 games are in Philly?
Carl
August 23rd, 2010
12:44 pm
Sept. 17-26
The Braves have a 9 game roadtrip at the same time the Phillies have a 9 game home stand.
Milt Famey
August 23rd, 2010
12:45 pm
We need to win the division and have the best record to keep home field advantage. This will be especially important against the Phillies. We don’t want to have to play them in their bandbox which favors their offense and not our stronger pitching staff Glad the last series is in the ATL.
Mark Bradley
August 23rd, 2010
12:46 pm
Nope. First three there, then the season-ending series here.
Mark Bradley
August 23rd, 2010
12:48 pm
The home field is nice and all, but in the postseason it doesn’t always matter. The Braves had the home-field edge in the first round in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 — and lost all four series.
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
August 23rd, 2010
12:51 pm
thanks again for the correction, MB- it’s Monday and the cobwebs are still there.
Milt Famey
August 23rd, 2010
1:02 pm
I agree that once you reach the playoffs you’re playing teams which win at home and on the road but I really don’t like to play Phila in their park. They have mounted some unbelievable comebacks there lately and I think that small park negates our pitching advantage. I still remember the ‘91 WS when the ballpark should have won the MVP award for the Twins
LuisG - Win-it-4-Bobby-n-Chipper!
August 23rd, 2010
1:03 pm
Good article.
I’ll have to point out something here. The Braves need to continue to win series. They also need to play good baseball against teams they haven’t played very well this year (We all know that…). Philadelphia have a tougher schedule than the Braves have (as far as opponents winning percentage) but they’ve also played better baseball against those teams than the Braves have against their own upcoming opponents.
Here are some numbers:
Braves’ remaining opponents are a combined 418-444 (.485) and the Braves have a 30-27 record (.523) against them (with losing record against both the Mets and the Cardinals, and having to face a weak Pirates team);
Phillies’ remaining opponents are a combined 563-550 (.506) and the Phillies have a 40-25 record (.615) against them (with a winning record against everybody but the Braves).
You can see that Phillies’ opponents seem to be stronger/better than the Braves’, but Philadelphia have played pretty well against them.
Based on the performance of their opponents, assuming every team will play the way they’ve been playing (which is something no one can assure), the Braves would end up with around 92 to 93 wins and the Phillies with around 87 to 96.
I’m pretty confident the Braves will still win the division, with those final 6 games against Philadelphia being decisive for us.
NY Frenchy ( see ya in KC next year)
August 23rd, 2010
1:04 pm
Lets hope we do meet in the NLCS against the Phils, thats how you want to win it, against the defending champs from your own division, not backing in, the Phils dont have the bullpen to match us, this year is a year of destiny for the Bravos, but we do need the home field, CHOP CHOP
Bruce Mac
August 23rd, 2010
1:06 pm
So, the Braves have lost how many games to the Phillies since your last prediction (the 8 reasons)? And now you have to put it out there again so we can lose the rest. Unreal. Leave it alone, please. Never mind, too late.
Katherine
August 23rd, 2010
1:08 pm
This is an exciting time of year!
extremus
August 23rd, 2010
1:09 pm
The predictions of a playoff matchup against the Phillies may very well come to pass, but I wouldn’t go assuming anything with such a scant lead (even for the wild card) and five or six weeks to go. As we’ve been made acutely aware since the All-Star break, a lot of things can happen over the course of a season, and not all of them are good things. The Braves are fortunate that guys have picked each other up and been able to sub for injured players so far, but the question is, “How much magic is left in that bottle?”.
Hopefully enough to win the World Series. But let’s not light the victory cigars just yet.
Katherine
August 23rd, 2010
1:10 pm
I think this year, more than any, homefield does matter to the braves…they’ve proven it.
jfreak
August 23rd, 2010
1:10 pm
I its foolish to assume that whoever gets the wildcard would beat the Padres? The Padres have VERY GOOD pitching and in the playoffs pitching and defense usually wins! The Braves would do better by focusing on how to win the division and let Philly deal with the Padres. I know the Phillies and Braves have really good pitching as well but the Padres scare me for some reason. They get very little press and they seem to go about their business the right way. I guess they remind me of the Marlins and the Diamondbacks who won the World Series!
JTH
August 23rd, 2010
1:14 pm
Mark Bradley with the kiss of death prediction.
Carl
August 23rd, 2010
1:17 pm
“I guess they remind me of the Marlins and the Diamondbacks who won the World Series.”
The 03 Marlins had mashers like Pudge, D. Lee (prime), Miguel Cabrera….
The 00 D’backs had Schilling and Johnson….not sure Latos and Garland is quite on that level.
Mark's for the Braves
August 23rd, 2010
1:20 pm
I totally agree with you, Mark. I just hope the Braves are the NL East winner and the Phillies are the wild card winner so we’ll get 4 home games. I don’t think the Phillies can beat us if we have 4 home games in the playoffs. Can you say, revenge for 1993?
Jon
August 23rd, 2010
1:21 pm
National media will say that it is more because the Phillies choke than the Braves success if the Phillies don’t overtake the Braves for the division. They’re already saying that the Phillies will make it back to the WS despite sitting behind the Braves for most of the season.
If anything, you need to be watching out for the Padres. IF they make the WS, that will be one lost world series. Few fans even know more than 2 Padres, who have been there the entire season. Ludwick and Tejada, obviously, don’t count. Mat Latos, Adrian Gonzalez, Heath Bell…they’ve got good pitching and have baseball’s best run differential.
Lane Jones
August 23rd, 2010
1:25 pm
Mark, i still have pictures of you from the AJC from the 1980’s with a big mustache and an afro. If you jinx the Braves, i am going to pull out those pics and show them to the world. Promise.
Relievers ERA, Another meaningless stat
August 23rd, 2010
1:25 pm
The Phils have been hot for too long now. They will cool off and the Cards will heat up. Phils fall out, Cards in.
Two weeks ago the PHils had won something like 14/17 and haven’t really cooled off since. They have to cool off.
ICEMANcometh10
August 23rd, 2010
1:25 pm
This lineup will line itself out and begin to hit like no other. Last nights game will be reminiscent of our just before mid season charge. During that span we won a bunch of games by scoring 5 or more runs and were undefeated in said games for a while.
Yeah 6 games in the last two weeks will determine if your article is true. I tend to believe the Braves will keep the Phillies out with these last two series. I would love to beat them in the NLDS but I would rather enjoy us beating them OUT of the playoffs…………………………….
.
Lenny D
August 23rd, 2010
1:28 pm
Everyone needs to calm down with the my team will destroy your team and your team isnt that good babble. Obviously both teams are pretty good and are more than capable of winning the NL this year. Phillies lined themselves up pretty well with their starting rotation, and the braves rotation is formidable also. These two teams will have to battle it out to decide it, its not going to be one-sided.
Carl
August 23rd, 2010
1:34 pm
“Two weeks ago the PHils had won something like 14/17 and haven’t really cooled off since. They have to cool off.”
Not necessarily….we haven’t seen what this group of Phillies are capable of. With Oswalt and Polanco maybe the Phillies are a team that can go 30-10?
Katherine
August 23rd, 2010
1:35 pm
Well said Lenny….I think it’s exciting..all the ups and downs. This season is anything but boring..I love it.
Sonny Clusters
August 23rd, 2010
1:40 pm
We was thinking that the goal of past Braves teams was to win the division – not the pennant – the division. Then, when they won it they would lose right away to the wild card. We are hoping this year the goal will be a World Series win. To do this, they should (1) not eat eggs until the salmonella scare is over, and (2) play hard and don’t let Troy Glaus play third under any circumstance. And how about that Mike Minor!
Mike
August 23rd, 2010
1:46 pm
Anyone know Oswalt’s career numbers against the Braves? They’re pretty surprising: 7 starts, 0 wins, 3 losses, 7.58 ERA, .354 BAA . . . not sure it really means anything, but interesting nonetheless . . .
chem
August 23rd, 2010
1:47 pm
Brad: Who starts for the braves in a 5 (or 7) game series and it what order? Certainly not Lowe?
Joseph
August 23rd, 2010
1:48 pm
Hey Carl would you please let your fellow fans know that we are passionate about our baseball here in the south. I would also like to comment on how friendly the chat here is compared to your inquirer. I have been called many names by those great=RUDE fans, but it will all come out in the wash! Please note as well, that everyones time on the top will end, and I’m all in that these Braves will take care of business!
Darryl Blackberry
August 23rd, 2010
1:48 pm
The “it’s just a matter of time before they fold” defense won’t work for Atlanta and San Diego, no matter how unassuming their lineups may seem. I don’t think Philly fans understand this just yet, since they’re so used to winning over the past several years. (Reminds me a bit of the Braves’ attitude toward the Marlins back in the Nineties. “These guys simply CAN’T be winning! We’ve never even HEARD of most of them!”)
Barring further injuries, there’s no reason why the Braves won’t make the postseason. Once they get there, though, they’ll likely have to face several teams with a lot of magic/chemistry/swagger/special sauce/Your Name Here, and even the Braves’ great home record and propensity for dramatic comebacks might not be enough.
The good news: every other team (at least, every other team in the NL) has an Achilles heel, and maybe, just maybe the Braves can bite into it worse than the opposition can bite into theirs.
UKUGA
August 23rd, 2010
1:49 pm
Braves need to win the division and avoid San Diego in the 1st round.
Jon
August 23rd, 2010
1:50 pm
@Joseph, with all the up and down talks, I’m surprised how few times it’s degenerated into name calling. I do rather like this blog for that reason.
UKUGA
August 23rd, 2010
1:51 pm
The Braves play great at home. The Braves have 22 last at bat victories.
If both trends continue, then home field is extremely important to this Braves team, this year.
Puppet Please!!
August 23rd, 2010
1:57 pm
Carl, you are delusional. Where were you when you fell out of 1st place in June??? Under a rock. Don’t give me the injury crap either because I don’t know if you noticed but we have lost ALL of our main producers to the DL at some point during the season and Chipper FOR the season. So BOO HOO on your injuries. The Phils are a good team, but guess what, the Braves are a good team PLUS they have mojo. I don’t know what it is but they win. If you think we are cowering to the MIGHTY Phils, think again and no amount of blog posts are going to change that.
Remember you have to do the job to COMPLETE the job.
TTTT-Thumbody Thed Thats Thupid!
August 23rd, 2010
1:58 pm
MB, think you’re confused. Al Gore says he invented baseball on the same day he invented the internet. Get your facts straight! BTW, as late as yesterday ESPN was saying the Braves and Phils have 3 games left, all in Philly. They think the season ends Sept. 30.
Jon
August 23rd, 2010
1:58 pm
@UKUGA, something like 38 come from behind victories with 22 wins in the final at-bat. Pretty nice statistics. It shows that, while we could be getting dominated by opposing starters, we eat up bullpens. Will we actually see that go to the playoffs where the level of competition is higher??
Mark Bradley
August 23rd, 2010
2:00 pm
In a best-of-five series, chem, I’d figure it’d be Hudson, Hanson and Jurrjens. In a best-of-seven, I’d say Lowe would start Game 4.
NCBravesFan
August 23rd, 2010
2:00 pm
I’m prety confident the Braves will make the playoffs. I’m not terribly confident they’ll go very far once they get there unless they tighten their defense up. It’s emerged as a key weakness that could really hurt them in October.
john
August 23rd, 2010
2:02 pm
To Craig Daliessio:
Not sure who will win the division this year. Phils are better on paper but the game is still played on the field.
I don’t think anyone has mentioned the 14 div. titles on the blog today except you so what are you barking about??
Lastly, the Philly fans are the worst fans in sports. Fair weather and as you have demonstrated overall jerks!!!
Mark Bradley
August 23rd, 2010
2:03 pm
I tend to agree, NC, with this caveat: I thought the Cardinals had no shot in 2006 after Jason Isringhausen got hurt (and St. Louis entered with 83 wins).
If you’re in, you have a shot. If you’re not, you don’t. I know it sounds simplistic, but that’s the truth of postseason play.
Innocent Bystander
August 23rd, 2010
2:09 pm
I dunno, Mark. I sure think home field throughout this year would translate into huge success for the Bravos. They had 10 home losses going into the ASG. That’s just nuts!!!
NCBravesFan
August 23rd, 2010
2:10 pm
Mark: I agree with you as well. If you’re in, you’ve got a chance. Hopefully they’ll play a clean game in the field and let their pitching do what it does so well.
Puppet Please!!
August 23rd, 2010
2:15 pm
The playoffs scare me to death because of our offense, HOWEVER we have changed to become more patient and to working the count against opposing pitchers…not a good strategy against Hallady but against Hamels? Very good strategy and generally a sound strategy in the pressure cooker of the playoffs. You doubt me, look at the success the Yankees and Red Sox have had doing the same.
The team that scares me the most is St Louis, they have fantastic pitching and a good offense. They aren’t playing lights out right now so if they get hot at the end of the season….look out.
San Diego is just as likely as us to have an offensive brown out and I like our pitching just a little bit more. The Phils are formidable but if you keep’em close their bullpen is likely to implode. Its been good of late but they haven’t played many stout offenses either.
I just don’t want Bobby Cox to head off into retirement like Sweet Loser Pinella. That was almost sad.
michael
August 23rd, 2010
2:18 pm
with all said and heard, the truth is, because of the braves being so much of a better team at home, finishing the season with the best record possible, winning the east along the way, is vital for post season success. quite plainly, with home field advantage, no one really stands a chance against atlanta, assuming the quality of the braves’ play at the ted continues to shine.
Denny
August 23rd, 2010
2:19 pm
Bradley, you make a mistake in assuming that both these teams are going to make the playoffs and advance past the NLDS. But you have made a career out of poor predictions and senseless drivel, so I guess you are just staying consistent.
Dr. Warren
August 23rd, 2010
2:20 pm
Are we forgetting history? Didn’t the Braves lose the NLCS to the Padres in ‘98? Not that I like SD, but how does the team with the NL’s most wins not get mentioned in this article?
JoeFan
August 23rd, 2010
2:24 pm
The Braves have enough pitching to squeeze into the wildcard. However, if the don’t get better timely hitting then they could fall short. Honestly believe the Phils will beat the Braves for the division title by 3-4 games, just because their overall lineup is stronger. Actually I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phils aren’t in 1st place by this Thursday.
Pierce
August 23rd, 2010
2:27 pm
you think you folks down in the ATL would be able to sell out a playoff game if you get in?
Absolutely PATHETIC!!!!….. With the kind of year the braves are having to have the lack of support the get from the locals is embarrassing.
o yea, GO Phils!
anotherdawg
August 23rd, 2010
2:29 pm
Anybody that doesn’t think Infante deserves to be an all-star, or play everyday, is a nut! Hits for average, has some power, and can play any position.
Sonny Clusters
August 23rd, 2010
2:29 pm
We was very cautious all during our shift today because when we arrived at work somebody had left us an egg sandwich with our name on it.
Charles
August 23rd, 2010
2:32 pm
Your article is correct if the only goal for this team us “getting to the post season”. If that’s a success for you that’s great. But I think Bobby, Chipper and the fans deserve more than a wild card team whose road record makes it much more likely to crash and burn if it must play the majority its playoff games on the road. Thus, winning the division is very important unless all you want is to get to the playoffs and celebrate just getting there.