Braves and Phillies: They’ll be seeing one another in the NLCS
Save that sign! It could be applicable come postseason. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
This should be a great race. The Braves saw Martin Prado return last week and swung the trade for Derrek Lee. The Phillies’ injured starters — Chase Utley, Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard — are injured no longer. We’re nearing September and we’re anticipating one of those down-to-the-final-weekend chases that emblazoned 1991 and 1993 in our memory, but …
It won’t happen.
After that 3-6 road trip that allowed the Phillies to creep close, the Braves have gone 13-6. As of this morning, the Braves led the Phils by 2 1/2 games — exactly the spread on Aug. 1, the day that road trip ended. Both clubs are tearing it up and both have geared up and we’re all getting geeked up, but two little words offer a reason to calm down. The words: “Wild card.”
The Phillies top the wild card standings by two games over St. Louis and San Francisco. Ergo, the Braves sit atop the final National League playoff spot on a 4 1/2-game cushion. Even if the Braves can’t hold off the Phillies — the belief here is that they can and will — they still have a fallback position.
The Cardinals are 9-8 in August; the Giants are 9-11. St. Louis is closer to the Reds, who lead the NL Central by 3 1/2 games, than to the Braves. San Francisco is six games behind the Padres in the West and has lost four of its past five series.
Of the Giants’ 37 remaining games, 22 are against teams above .500. Of the Cardinals’ 41 remaining games, 25 are against teams under .500. (This includes a postponed game against Florida, the makeup date for which hasn’t been set.) If either is apt to mount a late challenge, it’s going to be St. Louis, and the Cardinals seem a more pressing concern for the Reds than the Braves or Phillies.
For all the time we’ve spent casting our glance toward Philly, the cold truth is that both the Braves and the Phils are apt to play beyond the 162nd game. Charlie Manuel, the Phillies’ homespun manager, told reporters last week, “We don’t care about the wild card.” But it’s better to get into the playoffs, duh, than to sit at home. And we know from history that being the wild card is no impediment to postseason success.
From 2002 through 2007, every World Series included at least one wild-card qualifier, and three of those teams — the 2002 Angels, the 2003 Marlins and the 2004 Red Sox — won it all. And if the playoffs began today, the second-place Phils would probably be favored to emerge from the National League bracket. If you’re Philadelphia, which has won the NL East three seasons running and has reached the World Series the past two Octobers, all you want is to qualify.
Loading ...Yes, it’s different now. In 1991, the Braves and Dodgers spent every day from Aug. 22 on within two games of each other. In 1993 the Braves went from 9 1/2 behind the Giants on Aug. 9 to four ahead on Sept. 17 to tied after 161 games. Then Tom Glavine beat Colorado on the season’s final Sunday and David Justice hit a home run — that parlay would strike again in Game 6 of the 1995 World Series — and the Braves watched as the Giants, who finished with the best record in franchise history, lost to the Dodgers and took their 103 wins and went home.
That’s considered the Last Great Pennant Chase, for good reason. The wild card arrived in 1994, which was the strike year, and was implemented in 1995. The bulk of breathless baseball finishes since have involved the wild card, not a division title. An exception, sort of, came last year, when the Tigers blew a three-game lead with four to play and lost the AL Central to Minnesota in a one-game playoff. But even with the extra game, the Twins wound up with 87 victories.
The Braves already have 73. If they split their final 38 games, they’ll have 92 wins, and 92 wins has been enough to claim the National League wild card every season since 2002. Put simply, they’ll have to collapse not to make the playoffs. And they’re not going to collapse. Their pitching won’t allow it.
This team is going to make the playoffs. So is Charlie Manuel’s team. And they’ll see each other in mid-October, a World Series berth on the line.
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408 comments Add your comment
Let's Go
August 23rd, 2010
12:01 pm
Why Mark Why must you write articles like this. Do you really want to jinx this thing?
G Morris
August 23rd, 2010
12:02 pm
Charlie Manuel’s point is that you should never lean on the Wild Card. If you happen to get it, great. Too many times someone goes a tear to finish the year and swipes the WC.
We’ll know more about the Phils-Braves matchup after the two series. Chances are the Phils will line up Halladay, Hamels & Oswalt to start all 6 games. If someone takes 4 of 6…they’ll probably win the division.
Chris
August 23rd, 2010
12:03 pm
I agree that both teams will be in the playoffs. Basically it’s a pride thing at this point between the two teams. It would be nice to have home-field advantage though. I just feel we can’t be beat in the playoffs at home. As a wild-card we wouldn’t have home-field until the World Series. That could be a problem as the Braves seem to be around a .500 team on the road.
Coop
August 23rd, 2010
12:03 pm
While the wildcard is a nice cushion, we need that home-field advantage. Have you seen our road record. Especially in a short series, do you want to go to St. Louis or Cincy or have them come to the Ted?
Headley Lamar
August 23rd, 2010
12:03 pm
The Phillies dont really scare me that much.
We are talking about the losingest franchise in the history of MLB.
We have pounded them pretty good head to head the last couple of years.
Sure these are their golden years but they will be gone soon enough.
The Padres scare me more.
Joe
August 23rd, 2010
12:04 pm
Just remember the phillies have pitchers and players who have won a world series. The braves don’t.
fieldofdreams
August 23rd, 2010
12:05 pm
If the parts come together this lineup can win the whole shebang, but I’d be a lot more comfortable with home-field throughout. That said, the old paranoia about umpires under MLB orders to fatten television ratings will (finally) go our way; Cox coaching in the World Series is a ratings feast. We’ll get the benefit of the doubt on close calls during playoffs, especially against Cincinnati or San Diego.
Carl
August 23rd, 2010
12:06 pm
“He also gives up a ton of hits and his WHIP is pretty high”
Yet his WHIP is better than Hanson and Jurijens….He’s better than any pitcher on the Braves not named Hudson and that’s a fact but I don’t expect you to acknowledge facts.
Headley Lamar
August 23rd, 2010
12:07 pm
Just remember the phillies have pitchers and players who have won a world series. The braves don’t.
Derrek Lee, Hinske, Gonzalez, Lowe have all won titles.
And im sure there are more thats just off the top of my head.
Headley Lamar
August 23rd, 2010
12:09 pm
He’s better than any pitcher on the Braves not named Hudson and that’s a fact but I don’t expect you to acknowledge facts.
Jurjens is the better pitcher. He was injured the first half so his numbers are a bit skewed. Ill take JJ anyday over ” lets get the WS over ” Hamels
You really think you guys are going to win with the worst closer in MLB and that bullpen.
Hilarious.
Coop
August 23rd, 2010
12:09 pm
Carl – Can’t agree with Hamels better than JJ. Maybe Hanson and Lowe…
I’m not sure you know what the word “fact” means though. You seem to have it confused with opinion…
Let's Go
August 23rd, 2010
12:10 pm
If the Cardinals don’t win the Central then you may be right about these 2 teams meeting in NLCS. The Braves match up better against the Padres (over Reds & Cards) since both teams have “Real” size ballparks and the Braves can probably win a 5 game series without having to score 5 or more runs. The Cardinals would be a tough opening 5 game series for either team with Carpenter & Wainwright.
Mark Bradley
August 23rd, 2010
12:10 pm
Hamels and Hanson have had pretty close to the same season — good ERAs, not very good W-L records.
Mark Bradley
August 23rd, 2010
12:11 pm
Can’t understand the Cardinals, Let’s Go. I keep expecting that team to fly past the Redlegs, and it still hasn’t happened.
Tom
August 23rd, 2010
12:12 pm
Braves suck. They really wouldn’t beat the phillies if they played em tommorow. The braves will get the wild card and lose in the first round to the padres.
Hans
August 23rd, 2010
12:14 pm
A Phillies fan just informed that for the last 6 games we play against them, we are going to face Hamels, Oswalt, and Halladay…. Twice….
Headley Lamar
August 23rd, 2010
12:14 pm
Phillies are the worst franchise in MLB history.
Their recent success is a blip on the radar. They will be the Cubs again soon enough.
Carl
August 23rd, 2010
12:16 pm
“Carl – Can’t agree with Hamels better than JJ. Maybe Hanson and Lowe…”
Adjusted ERA+, often simply abbreviated to ERA+ or ERA plus, is a pitching statistic in baseball. It adjusts a pitcher’s earned run average (ERA) according to the pitcher’s ballpark (in case the ballpark favors batters or pitchers) and the ERA of the pitcher’s league. Average ERA+ is set to be 100; a score above 100 indicates that the pitcher performed better than average, below 100 indicates worse than average.
Hamels ERA+ is 117 while Jurijens is 102. This shows that Hamels has been the much more effective pitcher in a much more hitter friendly park.
Fans love to criticize the Phillies hitters because they play in bandbox but don’t credit to the Phillies pitchers who pitch in that same park.
Jurijens has been lights at home and awful on the road. You give Jurijens 16 starts at CBP and do you think he would have a sub 4 ERA?
Mark Bradley
August 23rd, 2010
12:16 pm
Don’t know about that, Headley. The Phillies are already on the kind of streak the Cubs have never had.
I’m not going to say anything negative about the Phils. I admire that team very much. Some decent folks over there, too.
Headley Lamar
August 23rd, 2010
12:19 pm
A Phillies fan just informed that for the last 6 games we play against them, we are going to face Hamels, Oswalt, and Halladay…. Twice….
Who cares? They will be facing Hudson, JJ, and Hanson twice.
Plus what does it matter if we are 6 games up by then
Puppet Please!!
August 23rd, 2010
12:20 pm
Phillie Lovers…you better mind yourself, not the Braves. I love the Braves but am a realist and some recent reality shows me the Phillies aren’t capitalizing on opportunities. They lost each time the Braves lost last week, when the Braves were not at their best and against sub-.500 teams. You’ve got to ask yourself…you’ve got 6 all star position players and 3 Cy Young Pitchers and you’re STILL in second place and haven’t gained ground since you went 13 for 15. To be honest I don’t see how the Braves are still in 1st with absolutely no power outlets on the team but you guys aren’t getting the job done either. You can act as confident as you want but remember you did better WITHOUT Victorino, Utley and Howard….maybe it back to the June Swoon instead of a September to Remember.
XphillyX
August 23rd, 2010
12:20 pm
We aren’t that bad as fans. The vet is gone, and so is a lot of the attitude. We are arrogant because we are a great sports town and our teams are playing really well. It’s called passion.
And if Hamels and Oswalt pitch like they are able to, your yawn will be about a week early in october when WE are representing the NL again.
Headley Lamar
August 23rd, 2010
12:21 pm
You give Jurijens 16 starts at CBP and do you think he would have a sub 4 ERA?
Yes I do.
JJ Had an ERA+ of 159 last year. Hamels has never come close to that. JJ could pitch anywhere and if not for the groin injury this year his numbers would be alot different.
Mark Bradley
August 23rd, 2010
12:23 pm
Veterans Stadium was pretty much a horror. I’ll agree there, XphillyX.
Headley Lamar
August 23rd, 2010
12:23 pm
Oswalt has been slightly better than average the last three years.
He isnt the pitcher he used to be.
Yawn.
GovClintonTyree
August 23rd, 2010
12:23 pm
All that misinformation regarding Minor around draft day can be laid at the feet of Keith Law, one of those ESPN quasi-scout/analysts. He said Minor threw 88, was drafted for signability because the Braves are cheap, etc.
I have now seen him three times and if Keith Law had actually seen him before the draft, he would have known that the guy threw 93, not 88, and had three plus pitches, excellent command and intelligence in a lefthanded package. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that the guy’s the real deal.
I like him better than Hanson. Cleaner mechanics, more aggressive, smarter, lefthanded.
Mark Bradley
August 23rd, 2010
12:24 pm
Keith Law cuts a wide swath in baseball circles, GovTyree. No doubt about that.
Coop
August 23rd, 2010
12:24 pm
Carl – Interesting. Do you adjust for JJ’s early struggles while hurt? Look, all I’m saying is that for my money, JJ is a better pitcher right now than Hamels. I think the Phils have a dangerous team, but it’s their hitting and not their pitching that firghtens me. Frankly, Hallady gets me a bit apprehensive, but I think we match up pretty well with our starters. I also think the Bravos have a much better bullpen. Will see soon enough.
XphillyX
August 23rd, 2010
12:25 pm
Victorino, Utley and Howard JUST came back. September collapses are something we have had the luxury of taking advantage of since ‘07. Wait until everyone is meshing again. Your hudd, jj, and whoever else you have can’t carry a team. you still need clutch hitting and with your senior citizen done, mccann can’t be expected to win every game.
Tom
August 23rd, 2010
12:25 pm
Our arrogance is becuse we are one of the three best, if not the best second half teams in the MLB.
Headley Lamar
August 23rd, 2010
12:25 pm
Minor does have a bright future.
Just one of a plethora of arms your going to see coming along in the next few years.
Farm system is loaded with em.
GovClintonTyree
August 23rd, 2010
12:25 pm
Philly fans, this is going to be a great pennant race. I have great respect for your ballclub but think our boys can pull it out.
The only difference is, now the loser is likely to get the wild card. Less hair-raising.
Carl
August 23rd, 2010
12:27 pm
Oswalt has been slightly better than average the last three years. He isnt the pitcher he used to be.”
He doesn’t have to be the pitcher he used to be…he doesn’t have to be an ace we already have that
BTW…he’s also 6th in the N.L in WHIP.
I know you’re a Braves fan but come on…
XphillyX
August 23rd, 2010
12:28 pm
And i am not taking anything away from the atl staff. except lowe. that’s the reason the braves are still playing for a reason.
SG10
August 23rd, 2010
12:29 pm
Mark,
Actually, that is true. I have been to several Braves-Phillies games in past and openly rooted for Braves and no fan threw up on me
but then, Braves were really good back then…
I didn’t mind Phillies for past couple years but this year I find bit of cockiness, right from the beginning of the season…
Puppet Please!!
August 23rd, 2010
12:29 pm
A Phillies fan just informed me that they are the greatest team of all time!! OMG, what are we gonna do????!!!!!
Listen I know the Braves don’t scare anybody and inspire little confidence in the masses but you know what???? They win. I wouldn’t bet on them to beat the Phillies straight up but I have seen really average teams beat very good teams before….mostly every team that beat the Braves in the playoffs from ‘96-’05. It happens and if I was Phillie fan I be worried that maybe all those all-stars are just EXPECTING to win instead of working to win.
Headley Lamar
August 23rd, 2010
12:30 pm
I know you’re a Braves fan but come on…
I know your a Phillies fan but cmon.
you guys win the division a couple of times and you think you invented the game.
Enjoy it while you can and you better win now because Utley and Howard etc etc are getting old. The phillies arent the kind of franchise that can replace that kind of talent. Meaning they arent getting lucky again.
Let's Go
August 23rd, 2010
12:31 pm
Puppet Please!!
I was thinking the same thing. When this Philly team was healthy they were struggling and then their superstars get hurt and they pull together and start winning. Oswalt helps them but too many people in the media seem to forget that he is not that dominating pitcher he once was. Yes, he makes them a better team but not that much better.
Mark Bradley
August 23rd, 2010
12:31 pm
The Phillies couldn’t have invented baseball, Headley. We all know Bobby Valentine did that.
GovClintonTyree
August 23rd, 2010
12:31 pm
Fellow Braves fans, if any of you think Oswalt is anything less than a horse, I don’t know what to tell you. Great pickup by Philly.
But as Headley points out Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Hudson, Jurrjens, Hanson…what’s the difference? Gonna be a rumble.
The one I hope to see is Mike Minor vs. Kyle Kendrick or Joe Blanton. Heh.
Carl
August 23rd, 2010
12:32 pm
@Coop
I think one of the reasons that Halladay has success against the Braves is because he pounds the strike zone and we all know how patient the Braves are. That’s why he’s thrown two gems against the Braves this year because aren’t nearly aggresive enough to hurt Halladay. This is where I think the Braves are going to struggle in the playoff against good pitching.
I’m not going to call you crazy for taking J.J over Hamels but I would give the edge to Hamels.
PMC
August 23rd, 2010
12:33 pm
The Braves play better against the best teams. They’ve done well against the Phillies this year. Outside of Halladay there’s no one on the entire staff that’s really fearsome. Overall they are still better on paper with more established stars….but The Braves can absolutely beat them in a best of 7.
Mark Bradley
August 23rd, 2010
12:33 pm
Carl, another reason Halladay has success against the Braves is this: He’s a great pitcher.
Mark Bradley
August 23rd, 2010
12:36 pm
PMC, that’s a good point. The Braves did lose two of three to the Reds three weeks ago, but they’ve gone 8-3 against the Padres, Giants and Dodgers since the All-Star break.
Kentavo
August 23rd, 2010
12:37 pm
Would appreciate the Philthies losing at least once on a day we win, but hey, as long as they lose the same days that we do, got no problem with that (except head-to-head when that is impossible, of course).
Carl
August 23rd, 2010
12:37 pm
“Enjoy it while you can and you better win now because Utley and Howard etc etc are getting old. The phillies arent the kind of franchise that can replace that kind of talent. Meaning they arent getting lucky again.”
I don’t know how you call the development of Howard, Utley, Rollins and Hamels lucky? I think that’s called good scouting and a good organization but if you want to call it lucky…
Are the Phils going to maintain their level of success….who knows but as long as their selling out CBP and getting the revenues that they are, they’re going to be able to sign free agents like Halladay, Oswalt and Polanco.
If they can maintain their 140 mil payroll….they’ll be in good shape.
The Phillies are the better team IMO….the better doesn’t always win. You Braves fans are dealing with what Mets and Phillies fans dealt with for 14 years….at the end of the day the cream always rise to the top and that is what is going to happen this year.
Puppet Please!!
August 23rd, 2010
12:40 pm
Phillie Fan please, know your enemy. Did you know Hanson had a 1.05 ERA in his 5 previous starts prior to Sat? That beats the F out of Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt. Hanson is JUST as good as anybody the Braves have. He’s not as consistent but when he is dialed in, he’s as good as anybody. And its not McCann you need to worry about in the Braves lineup, its Prado and Infante. IF….IF…BIG IF, Lee comes in and starts hitting, the Braves can be VERY dangerous, because Prado, Heywared and Infante get on base. If Lee picks up the slack that just takes more pressure off McCann and Insert 6 and 7 hole guys here. Lee is the key, just like Glaus was in May. We get prodcution from the 4 hole, its over for you guys.
jokurone
August 23rd, 2010
12:40 pm
Bombs away in Colorado starting this evening. Huddie will keep em low and Heyward will hitem high and far!
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
August 23rd, 2010
12:41 pm
braves & phills have 9 games left to play each other- whoever wins the majority of those games is your NL EAST Champion
Mark Bradley
August 23rd, 2010
12:41 pm
Braves and Phils actually have six games left against each other, Dr. Kenneth.