The view from Philly: First-place Braves are nothing special
The "easy out" celebrates a home run -- against Philadelphia. (AJC photo by Jason Getz)
Bob Ford of the Philadelphia Inquirer still believes the road to the World Series runs through Philadelphia, and maybe it does. A check of the NL East standings, however, reveals that the regal Phillies are six games behind a team that Mr. Ford doesn’t regard as anything special.
Writes Ford:
The Braves are a nice team, really nice in some ways, but the notion that leapfrogging the Braves would require super-human effort is ridiculous. The Phillies, if they play as they can, have nothing to worry about, either from Atlanta or from their alleged co-rivals, the Mets.
Me, I’m a worrier by nature. Were I six games behind the Bad News Bears with 70 games remaining, I’d be getting antsy. More Ford:
The Braves are nothing like the team that so recently dominated the division. Those Atlanta teams were built on great starting staffs, just enough offense and some decent power production in the launching pads of Fulton County Stadium and Turner Field.
What do the Braves have now? Well, they have a [six]-game lead over the Phillies and they have a great player in second baseman Martin Prado and an ace starter in Tim Hudson. Beyond that, they have as many peaks and valleys as any other team …
Beyond Hudson, Atlanta’s staff includes talented young Jair Jurrjens who is just back from the disabled list and carrying around a 4.75 ERA. Kris Medlen had a good first half of the season, but he has just 15 career starts and how he will hold up is unknown. There is Derek Lowe, who won Sunday to go 10-8, but with another ERA over four runs per game. There is Tommy Hanson , also just above .500 and another ERA over four runs. Perhaps on a given day, with one given game to win, Tim Hudson would be a problem, but there isn’t much separating the starting staff from that of the Phillies.
To be fair, Mr. Ford does credit the Braves as having the better bullpen, though he wonders if, “with one game to save, you’d feel any more comfortable with [Billy] Wagner than with Brad Lidge. By the end of the season, the difference could be minuscule.” (Well, I suppose it could.)
And the Braves’ offense, which has outhit Philly’s .261 to .255 and ranks first in the National League in on-base percentage — the Phillies are 12th — is likewise seen as inconsequential. Writes Mr. Ford:
On offense, the Braves are 12th in the National League in slugging percentage. Among their players with enough at-bats to be eligible for league leadership, only Prado is hitting better than .270. Troy Glaus and Brian McCann, the all-star MVP, have decent power numbers, but they are also easy outs. Chipper Jones, the holdover from the previous era, is battling a hamstring injury and has been inconsistent at the plate.
I am now going to cite a first baseman’s on-base percentage. It is .366. I am now going to cite another first baseman’s on-base percentage. It is .357. The first first baseman is Glaus. The second is Ryan Howard. Easy out, eh?
I could do this back-and-forth all day, but I’ll leave that to you. (Why should I have all the fun?) I will close with Mr. Ford’s closing argument, such as it is:
If the Phils don’t go for it this year, hopefully it won’t be because they think Braves are a magical, uncatchable team. The Braves are fine, but they aren’t as good as the real Phillies, should the real Phillies choose to show themselves this season.
The only NL East team truly capable of keeping the Phils out of the postseason isn’t found in an opposing dugout but in the mirrors of their own clubhouse.
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360 comments Add your comment
Andy
July 20th, 2010
2:33 pm
What a bunch of crap. I find it funny that he is actually trashing the Braves pitching staff when the Phils entire staff is nothing special after Doc Halladay. Their next best pitcher is 1000 year old Jaimie Moyer who the Braves just touched up for 7 runs not two weeks ago. By the way Lidge has a 4.32 ERA and Wagner has a 1.15 ERA. Is this dope really trying to say that there is no difference between the two? I will take Wagner over Lidge any day of the week. The Braves have a 3.66 team ERA and the Phils have a 4.09 team ERA. If he wants to say that the Phils offense is more explosive than the Braves then I am fine with that but to compare pitching staffs is ridiculous. If the Phils do lose out on the title I am sure that this idiot will give no credit to the Braves and will blame it all of injuries and the Phils “choosing not to show themselves”. Give me a break!
chucktown brave
July 20th, 2010
2:35 pm
Magic number is currently at 65
bruce
July 20th, 2010
2:36 pm
from Philly blog by their mlb beat writer Zolecki… http://zozone.mlblogs.com/
Now, I know you can’t just throw out Halladay’s and Hamels’ numbers. But Amaro and Manuel see the other three spots and wonder how they’re going to catch the Braves in the NL East with so much inconsistency.
The Braves are on pace to win 97 games, but let’s say they stumble a bit in the second half and finish with 92. The Phillies would need to go 45-29 (.608) the rest of the way just to tie them.
The Rockies are on pace to win the NL wild card with 90 wins. Even then the Phillies would need to go 43-31 (.581) the rest of the way to tie.
shawn
July 20th, 2010
2:37 pm
Another column from a writer who has no clue what he is talking about…If I am six games behind, I would not be running my mouth..nice job Ford (idiot)
Matt the Brave
July 20th, 2010
2:38 pm
Ok, how many games did Lidge blow last year? And how many this year when he’s actually pitched? Really?! Guh. Stupid Phillies fans. I’ll be happy when they’re in the bottom half of the NL again.
Andy
July 20th, 2010
2:38 pm
What a bunch of crap. I find it funny that he is actually trashing the Braves pitching staff when the Phils entire staff is nothing special after Doc Halladay. Their next best pitcher is 1000 year old Jaimie Moyer who the Braves just touched up for 7 runs not two weeks ago. By the way Lidge has a 4.32 ERA and Wagner has a 1.15 ERA. Is this dope really trying to say that there is no difference between the two? I will take Wagner over Lidge any day of the week. The Braves have a 3.66 team ERA and the Phils have a 4.09 team ERA. If he wants to say that the Phils offense is more explosive than the Braves then I am fine with that but to compare pitching staffs is ridiculous. If the Phils do lose out on the title I am sure that this idiot will give no credit to the Braves and will blame it all of injuries and the Phils “choosing not to show themselves”.
BravesAC
July 20th, 2010
2:40 pm
I heard the Philly announcers on XM during the last Braves/Phillies series. The announce said Medlin is ok but he wouldn’t be beating the Phillies if they had their regular lineup. They went on to say “Medlin is the kind of pitcher the Phiilies tear up”.
Nice prideful bunch those Phillies. LeBron would fit right in.
Dirty Dawg
July 20th, 2010
2:40 pm
Just think how cocky this a-holes would be if they’d have won 15 Division titles – or ever how many it was, I forget, and it really doesn’t matter – in a row instead of, what, two? This is my bet, if Philadelphia beats us then Buck Belue kicks Kincaid’s butt..OK?
Wren Hater
July 20th, 2010
2:41 pm
The view OF Philly?
Imagine you have just depressed the lever on your toilet.
Look down at the swirl.
There is your view OF Philly.
sleeze
July 20th, 2010
2:41 pm
If they switched Philly.com’s sports columnists with the AJC.com’s sports columnists, would anybody really know the difference?
Philly Braves Fan
July 20th, 2010
2:44 pm
Braves AC…I also heard that…and the funny thing is this was about 2-3 weeks after the Tiger’s Manager said he was thoroughly impressed with Medlin….
Corky Miller's Beer Gut
July 20th, 2010
2:46 pm
I love it… Please make sure the players get a look at the article. Glaus and McCann for sure. All Star MVP is an easy out this guy must be trying to change careers what a clown.
Goose Creek Brave
July 20th, 2010
2:46 pm
Enter your comments here
Until today I had never heard of Bob Ford…I had heard of Henry Ford and Whitey Ford though.
Phillie Phan
July 20th, 2010
2:48 pm
All you Braves’ fans have got to admit one thing — The Phillies have the Phanatic and you don’t.
Corky Miller's Beer Gut
July 20th, 2010
2:48 pm
I think that everyone on this site sometime today should send a message to BOB just let him know that he is a clown.
This is what I emailed to Mr. Ford
July 20th, 2010
2:49 pm
Bob. Oh, Bob.
It’s a shame firejoemorgan.com is no longer active because they surely would have had fun with Monday’s ‘Phils’ biggest obstacle is themselves’ column.
But since that since that site is no more, I guess the responsibility to point out the shortcomings of your article falls to me.
—You call Turner Field a “launching pad.” It most certainly is not. According to baseballreference.com, Turner Field has a multi-year park factor of 98 for both batters and pitchers. Any score over 100 is considered a hitter’s park and anything under 100 is deemed a pitcher’s park. But the point that Turner Field is a hitter’s haven really wasn’t integral to your argument. I just wanted to point out the silliness of what you said. I digress…
—You say this: “ Bookending their bad start and their hot four weeks, the Braves have since lolled about playing just over .500 baseball.” Wrong. Any way you want to measure it, that’s simply not true. Since the 20-5 stretch, the Braves are 21-15, which equates to a .583 winning percentage. Over the last month, the Braves have gone 15-10 for a winning percentage of .600. Over their last 15 games, the Braves are 9-6 for a .600 winning percentage. Why did you say something that has so little basis in fact?
—You cite Tim Hudson’s W-L record as a reliable gauge of whether he can “carry a team to a division win.” What century are you in? In no way do wins and losses reflect how good a pitcher is.
—You say that “there isn’t much separating the starting staff from that of the Phillies.” Atlanta has a 3.85 ERA from their starters, and that’s with 15 starts from Kenshin Kawakami, who is no longer in the rotation. Philly’s starters ERA? 4.09. A quarter of a run worse than Atlanta’s. Also, as you mentioned, Jair Jurrjens is back in the Atlanta rotation. But, what you fail to mention is the fact that since returning from injury, Jurrjens has a 2.56 ERA. This coming from a guy who had a 2.60 ERA all of last year. I think it’s safe to say that replacing Kawakami with Jurrjens makes the Atlanta rotation much better than Philadelphia’s. In fact, if you replace all of Kawakami’s 2010 starts with a pitcher with a 3.00 ERA (which we can reasonably assume Jurrjens would have been if he had not been injured due to his career numbers), the Braves’ team starters ERA would be 3.64. Still thinking the Philly rotation compares?
—Inexplicably, you say: “The real question, though is whether, with one game to save, you would feel any more comfortable with Wagner than you do with Brad Lidge.” Why yes, Bob. Yes, I would feel more comfortable with Wagner. And if you even cursorily glance at the stats, you would agree. I mean, how is this even close? Wagner has been one of the two or three best closers in baseball this year, and Lidge has been, well, Lidge. What you said is akin to asking someone whether they would rather go to a Bruce Springsteen concert or a Justin Bieber show. Gimme The Boss please, and it’s not even close.
—You say that Atlanta’s offense is 12th in the NL in slugging percentage, but fail to acknowledge that they have the the league’s best on-base percentage, which offsets the lack of power and is why the Braves are 7th in the NL in runs.
—You say that Troy Glaus and Brian McCann are easy outs. And now you’re just rabble rousing. Troy Glaus is 24th in the league in on-base percentage. Brian McCann is 11th. So as it turns out, Glaus and McCann are not easy outs. They are actually the 24th and 11th best players in the league at NOT making outs.
I don’t expect you to respond to this e-mail, but I hope that you read it. I know you are doing your job, which is writing for a PHILLY paper, not an Atlanta paper, but I don’t think that gives you a pass for blatant homerism.
Corky Miller's Beer Gut
July 20th, 2010
2:51 pm
bford@phillynews.com
for anyone else that wants to send ol BOB their thoughts.
Philly Braves Fan
July 20th, 2010
2:53 pm
Phillie Phan,
Honestly…the Phanatic is pretty juvenile. If you listen to 97.5 FM up here, which is ESPN Radio, all of the radio personalities (Mickey Mis, Gonzo, etc) admit the Phantic quit being funny after the age of 8
Furman Bitcher
July 20th, 2010
2:53 pm
You sure that was Bob Ford? Or was it Robert Gibbs. It sounds like the same crap I hear out of the White House.
jbird
July 20th, 2010
2:53 pm
whensidslid92
July 20th, 2010
2:30 pm
yeah, looks like I made a BIG mistake..LOL
you obviously are very sensitive to other peoples comments and wouldn’t be after eating sh*t this morning but l I was doing was letting you know that was the nickname of the old stadium.
I do know from now on I better watch my P’s and Q’s around you….LMAO!
Keith
July 20th, 2010
2:54 pm
That was probably his job. To point out our weaknesses and skew the numbers the Phillies way….so he can encourage the fans and maybe provide a little influence to the Management to go out and get that arm or bat or whatever….
You’re right..if he would have examined runs scored in the late innings, wins at last ABs, walks, bullpen ERA, and OB pct, then he would have written a different story.
They say that figures don’t lie, but liars figure.
He spinned it the Phils way to build confidence and faith in their team.
We know better.
Dan
July 20th, 2010
2:54 pm
I think it’s funny he cites slugging percentage. It’s unquestionably a valuable stat but consider where they play half of their games and it might become a bit more clear as to why their slugging is higher but their on-base isn’t.
Further, the idea that Turner is a launching pad could not be more wrong. Atlanta-Fulton County was a hitters park but anyone with a brain knows Turner is fair but leans towards being a pitcher’s park.
Brvesfan
July 20th, 2010
2:56 pm
jbird….who the heck is that guy???what an a**
I say we change his name to Mr. Sensitive!
Furman Bitcher
July 20th, 2010
2:56 pm
Um Bob, The Braves are 6 games better than the Phils and after they lose to Carpenter tonight they will be 7 games back.
Rob
July 20th, 2010
2:58 pm
Mccann an easy out? The guy who had the biggest hit for the Nat league in 14 years and won the game and mvp an easy out? This guy is a moron. The phillies are done. Their pitching is horrible. They will be 10 back by the end of the month.
Dan
July 20th, 2010
2:58 pm
Excellent post, This is what I emailed. Kudos for pointing out that a pitcher’s W-L record means NOTHING.
I’d also like to know what their team ERA is independent of Roy Halladay’s. He definitely skews their pitching stats.
Smack
July 20th, 2010
2:58 pm
O how sweet it will be to be celebrating our Division Title in their faces the last series of the season!
RamblinWreck2011
July 20th, 2010
2:59 pm
Sounds like somebody is jealous!
Dan
July 20th, 2010
3:02 pm
Hopefully we close it out a lot earlier than that, Smack.
Dejuvu
July 20th, 2010
3:02 pm
Perhaps the Phillies need to change the color of their uniforms to yellow..If I didn’t know better, I’d swear that Ford was “4NCS are better than 1″.
Smack
July 20th, 2010
3:04 pm
Agreed Dan! But maybe at least get out the new banner for the left-center field awning and shake it at ‘em!
falcondawg
July 20th, 2010
3:06 pm
I just want to say THANKS to Bob Ford for making us better by writing this article. I sure hope the locker room got a copy!
Todd
July 20th, 2010
3:07 pm
Mark you should send this dolt a copy of your recent article where you compare the braves to AL teams and how they function. This guy is clueless. Even ol roy got hammered last night. They have no pitching. And did you see Damon’s baserunning blunder last night that cost detroit the win? Haha. Ol damon could be playing on a first place heading to the playoffs team.
jimmymack
July 20th, 2010
3:08 pm
we need a big bat in left or center
Todd
July 20th, 2010
3:08 pm
Where is my post? Sheesh.
Chief Pitchanono
July 20th, 2010
3:08 pm
Yeah this is just a pep rally article, most of the philly writers have been in panic mode for about 2 months now and gues it was just time to write something different. It will be easy for writers to doubt this Braves team if your just looking through a stat sheet, because no their are no real superstar names or stats for that matter, except maybe Hudson and Prado’s. so I would expect this to continue if we make the playoffs. What he doesn’t tell you is what we all know, this Braves team has something you can’t write on paper, and thats chemistry, they know how to win as a team. Every part is equal and they all lean on each other to come away with a win. Braves just need to keep on keep’n on, and they will be fine. Bobby is real good at concentrating on the series at hand and not worrying about other teams, and thats just what they need to do, win series and not worry about the Phills, they can think about how they somehow knocked off goliath after they clinch the division.
whensidslid92
July 20th, 2010
3:08 pm
jbird
July 20th, 2010
2:53 pm
Thanks for taking note. Kumbayah.
NEW CARS
July 20th, 2010
3:09 pm
The difference between this Braves version and some of the last few years comes in the form of a stronger bench and bullpen..If we could somehow swap Cabrera and a middling prospect for Chris Young…I know he’s not a superstar, sort of Mike Cameronesque, then we could platoon Matt and McLouth if Nate gets back to hitting and our bench goes back to strength that it was earlier in the year..We are much stronger when Hinske, Conrad, Infante, Ross and the fourth OF are available off the bench…Remember Norton, Diory, Corky Miller…Now we have guys that can give the starters a break and deliver in the pinch….And that bullpen is the best I can remember from 1-6…
Go Braves!
July 20th, 2010
3:09 pm
I would like to nominate Bob Ford for DOUCHE of the day!!!! Go Braves!!!
TM
July 20th, 2010
3:10 pm
Outside of a few inflammatory comments, I believe Mr. Ford is just pandering to his Philly readers. I’m sure he believe’s that with this article freshly on the minds of the Phillies, they will respond and catch fire to win the east/national league/world series.
Paaaaaaaaaa-lease.
Mr. Ford, keep writing these kinds of stories so it will be easier to beat the Phillies. And their fans will be jumping off bridges by the dozens by season’s end.
oh that glorious day
July 20th, 2010
3:11 pm
i remember a day when I was at the braves-phillies game and watched brad lidge blow yet ANOTHER game….. just sayin
Corky Miller's Beer Gut
July 20th, 2010
3:12 pm
Well I just sent o’l Bob a letter with facts that prove his “facts incorrect” I also told him he should be more worried about the Marlins catching this Philies than the Phillies catching the Braves. I also sent him a ebay link for clown shoes
Skeezix
July 20th, 2010
3:12 pm
If I was to select one of the Ford brands to describe Mr. Bob Ford as a journalist–it would be an Edsel.
SG10
July 20th, 2010
3:12 pm
We need more writers like him in the Philly camp. The more they write, more complacent they will become. I would rather have Phillies asleep and in serious funk that they are in right now. I hope, before they realize, this season will pass by.
jim
July 20th, 2010
3:13 pm
Interesting that Ford dissects our starting pitching staff. Someone remind me, after Halliday, exactly who does Philly have to start? I thought so – Ford, sit down and shut up.
GT Fan
July 20th, 2010
3:14 pm
Boy Philly gets good for what 3 years and all of a sudden they are world beaters and have a “real” team.
Imagine if they had won 14 years in a row…(ahem, like the Braves)
CDUB
July 20th, 2010
3:16 pm
Bob Ford should stick to his specialty, olympic sports.
cheshire
July 20th, 2010
3:16 pm
Ha – what a strange article.
The whole article seems like the crazed ranting by a man in denial of the reality he sees around him. He even cherry picks stats in an effort convince himself how good the Phillies really are, reality be damned. For example, he tries to boil the offensive comparison down to batting average, but ignores that OBP has been shown to be a much better indicator of how many runs a team will score. You can’t just say “well, our batting average is only 5 points lower than their, so we’re just about as good a team as they are”. That’s ridiculous. In June the Royals were leading the AL in batting average, so it’s not THAT key an indicator of where your offense is.
Second, he spends a lot of the article comparing the real version of the Braves with a fantasy version of the Phils. I think this is where sports writers and fans get way to obsessed with expectations. This guy is so convinced in what he believed about the Phillies heading into the season that he is trying to ignore what the Phillies have actually done in reality so far. There is a reason they actually play the game on the field as opposed to just holding up historical stats for each team and rewarding the trophy to the team with the best numbers.
At any rate, i hope this makes the Braves bulletin board and inspires them to continue crushing the Phillies in the 2nd half.
DawginNYC
July 20th, 2010
3:17 pm
Don’t take it so personally, fellow Brave fans. This is what happens when you HAVE team chemistry and when you ARE in first place. This is what happens when they hate you – because you are better than them. I’ll take it.
glove51
July 20th, 2010
3:18 pm
“with one game to save, you’d feel any more comfortable with [Billy] Wagner than with Brad Lidge. By the end of the season, the difference could be minuscule.”
DELUSIONAL