The 2010 Falcons: They’ll win 12 and play for the NFC title
Dunta Robinson: You wanted a cornerback, and here he is. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
For football, June is the silly season. Nothing much is happening, but everybody has an idea what will happen. Here’s where I add to the silliness. Here’s where I tell you why the Falcons will play for the NFC title on Jan. 23, 2011.
1. The NFC South is the league’s most fluid division. Not once in eight tries has it yielded consecutive division winners, not even when the reigning NFC South champ was also the Super Bowl winner. (Tampa Bay went from lifting the Lombardi Trophy in February 2003 to finishing 7-9 ten months later.) This is noteworthy because the New Orleans Saints, as we know, somehow won Super Bowl XLIV.
2. The Saints are vulnerable. They’ve had the usual post-Super round of controversy and then some. A lawsuit (since withdrawn and sent to arbitration) by the team’s former security director accusing Saints staffers of misusing Vicodin. Tight end Jeremy Shockey fainting in the weight room. Safety Darren Sharper getting into a Twitter fight with a former Minnesota teammate. Tackle Jammal Brown and running back Pierre Thomas wanting more money. The Saints weren’t that much better than the Falcons a year ago, and this time they won’t be as good.
3. The defensive upgrade begun in the offseason of 2009 will grow teeth in 2010. The Falcons changed five starters from 2008 to last season, but they didn’t get immediately better at every position. Some of that had to do with injury, and tackle Peria Jerry’s return to health stands to give the D-line a boost. The same should happen in the secondary with the advent of cornerback Dunta Robinson and at linebacker with the addition of Sean Weatherspoon. The Falcons actually nosed upward defensively in 2009 — they finished 21st in total defense, up from 24th in 2008. They should be close to the top 10 this season.
Loading ...4. If 2009 was as bad as it gets for Matt Ryan, the Falcons will be just fine. The quarterback wasn’t awful last season; he just wasn’t quite as precise as he’d been as a rookie. Yes, there were mitigating factors: Michael Turner got hurt and Jerious Norwood stayed hurt and the line didn’t block as well for the run as it had in 2008. But the Falcons’ whole offensive approach seemed a tad off last season. Too many short passes — that’s what happens when you add Tony Gonzalez — and not enough field-stretching. That figures to change in 2010. The Falcons have had a long time to scout themselves and see where they went wrong, and slot receiver Harry Douglas is due to return from knee surgery.
5. That never-consecutive-winning-seasons thing has finally gone away. Even Falcons insiders were of two minds about the much-discussed mark of ignominy: Some didn’t think it was a big deal, and some thought it was the biggest deal going. But now it’s gone, and the Falcons deserve great credit for taking a season going wrong and wringing a 9-7 record out of it. They know now that these coaches are clever enough to have a Plan B — as opposed to Jim Mora and Co. — and that there’s enough talent and resolve on this roster to persevere in the face of injuries and distractions. No, 2009 wasn’t a championship season, but it could well have been the season that prefigures a championship.
Prediction time: The Falcons will go 12-4, will beat Green Bay in the conference semifinals and will play Dallas in Dallas for the NFC title and the right to play in Super Bowl XLV, which is also in … er, Dallas. And how, you’re asking, will the Falcons fare against the Cowboys?
And I say: Let me hold onto a shred of mystery, please. It’s June. I see no reason to offer a prediction on the outcome of the 2011 NFC championship game until at least the Fourth of July.
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393 comments Add your comment
falcon4ever
June 18th, 2010
2:23 pm
Case and point Troll! Not everyone needs to explain their opinions to you.
Dave In Tampa
June 18th, 2010
2:24 pm
Good call falcon4ever –
I don’t dislike the Falcons. I guess you can say that I have been dissapointed from many season in the past. They are going to have to prove it to me before winning me back! I hope they do win 12 games.
Trolling the Troll
June 18th, 2010
2:25 pm
Dave In Tampa
June 18th, 2010
2:21 pm
Your post speaks volumes there my friend. Falcons 7-9!
_____________________
And this speaks volumes about you. Why can’t you answer a simple question, davey?
Honky Talkin'
June 18th, 2010
2:28 pm
Sorry..the Saints were MUCH better than the Falcon’s last year. No way in hell would the Falcon’s have beaten the Colts, or made it to the NFC Championship.
falcon4ever
June 18th, 2010
2:29 pm
I’m in agreement with you Dave. I hope for the best but then the season starts and I say here we go again . It’s almost insulting that the Glory point in our history is 2 winning seasons in a row but I’ll hope for the best AGAIN this year
Just A Reminder
June 18th, 2010
2:30 pm
Please Don’t Feed The Trolls.
Sorry for the delay on this one.
Dave In Tampa
June 18th, 2010
2:34 pm
falcon4ever
I got a little frustrated this past season when the Falcons barely beat the Bucs. I was ready to really lay it into a couple of these Bucs fans I know. They just squeaked by them. I was hoping for them to blow the Bucs out.
I remember many times going into the season saying this is the year. Just to be let down. Let’s hope for the best! I just want to see them kill the Bucs down here in Tampa. It’s funny down here when the Bucs lose, which last year was often.
falcon4ever
June 18th, 2010
2:41 pm
We are gonna need those 2 against the Bucs-2 aginst the Panthers , but I don’t believe we’ll take 2 from the Saints. Almost their whole team is back thanks to the free agent thing. Usually Super Bowl winners get picked clean in the off-season. Your Bucs put it on the Saints at the end of the season although I think they could have cared less about it at that point. That game for them barely had any implications after Minn. lost and gave the Saints a first round bye
Michael
June 18th, 2010
2:42 pm
Here’s my prediction: Look for the Redskins to make some noise in the East and Green Bay to the North, but neither make it to the title game. Drum roll please! Falcons host the Saints for the NFC Championship.
falcon4ever
June 18th, 2010
2:46 pm
@ Michael- That would be sweet but realistically the Saints will more than likely be hosting us. Homefield advantage ? I don’t think it’s all it’s cracked up to be. Any given Sunday or Saturday
Delbert D.
June 18th, 2010
2:56 pm
Need to get push up the middle. Stop the QB from stepping up in the pocket.
Keebler
June 18th, 2010
2:59 pm
Sure hope you’re right Markie but I tend to think you’re likely having flashbacks after hanging out too much at 10th and 14th in 1969.
truth
June 18th, 2010
3:01 pm
…………or thursday. Lady Luck won’t roll thru the bigsleezy. Flame away, but the aints had alot of come from behind wins last year that only luck or fate played apart. Aints won inspite of themselves. They are who we thought they were. lol
falcon4ever
June 18th, 2010
3:05 pm
@ truth- Really?- I never thought the Saints would have been Super Bowl champs yet they were. lvq
FEATHEREDFRIEND
June 18th, 2010
3:11 pm
C’mon Falcons-Who’s with me on 14-2——Flyin’ high again!!!!!!!!!!!
captain Midnight.
June 18th, 2010
3:17 pm
Boy you are really a glutton for purnishment. You picked the Hawks to beat Orlando, you picked the Celtics to beat the Lakers and now you are at it again.
papadawg
June 18th, 2010
3:38 pm
MB it’s not to early, too late or in fact there’s never a time when you can’t talk football
PMC
June 18th, 2010
3:38 pm
Look I love the Falcons, but the Saints weren’t a fluke because they had at least the best QB in the NFC a fantastically good offense and a solid defense that grabbed lots of turnovers.
I have no idea why people would pick a team like Dallas who can’t get out of the way of thier ego’s or Minnesota who have loads of talent but make too many mistakes.
The Saints rode the at least 1A QB in football (if you want to say Peyton is better) and a driven quality safety in Sharper to a championship.
The Falcons can play by that same formula but they have to grab more turnovers this year on defense and they have to get much better play from Ryan who is getting there but isn’t quite there yet. They have to take better care of the football.
TMoney
June 18th, 2010
3:38 pm
@ FEATHEREDFRIEND: 14-2 Sounds good, but I just can’t help thinking it’s too high. Heck, a part of me (the Atlanta sports fan side), thinks my 13-3 is too high.
FalconsFan284
June 18th, 2010
3:41 pm
Feather—There are six good teams on the schedule and I don’t believe that Falcons can will over half of those games.
jay
June 18th, 2010
3:42 pm
ummmmm mark…r u smoking dope? give me some
realheavyd
June 18th, 2010
3:42 pm
RE: DP
“Correct me if I’m wrong, but weren’t the Saints 12-1 and the Falcons 6-7 after 13 games?”
The Saints were actually 13-0 after the first 14 weeks last season before dropping the final 3 games of the regular season.
papadawg
June 18th, 2010
3:43 pm
Sorry to be the party pooper but I think 10-6 is a good record to shoot for this year. Still too many questions on defense and we still need that big time go to receiver
Happy2
June 18th, 2010
3:45 pm
Mark,
I always enjoy reading your comments, opinions, and predictions. But I do have a problem with this one: only one out of five points is related to football! Reasons 1, 2, 4, and 5 have nothing to do with what goes on inside the boundaries of the gridiron. The history of the division and its winners is certainly interesting and a curiosity but it has absolutely not impact on whether the Falcons will play well or not. Neither does a Twitter fight between Sharper and former teammates. If you make a prediction, back it up with FOOTBALL reasons.
FEATHEREDFRIEND
June 18th, 2010
3:50 pm
Falcons fan284- You kind of lost me on that . I got the 6 good teams part but the rest was confusing . Could you repeat please?
WHO DAT
June 18th, 2010
4:01 pm
Newsflash: The Saints got better also!!
Obviously the division is between the Saints and Falcons but I see the Saints winning again because of Brees.
Falcons D should be decent this year but they wont have a pass rush—again… The secondary will be a little better with Daunte back there but the Safety play has been underwhelming. Brees will eat up that secondary.
Sure the Saints got lucky at times last year but that’s what every team needs to make it to the big game, a little luck.
I see the Saints and Falcons splitting this year with both winning at home. Overall, I think 10 wins for the Falcons will be a pretty good year. Saints will win 11 or 12.
cheshire
June 18th, 2010
4:12 pm
Yeah, I don’t think anyone who knows anything about football could intelligently call what the Saints did last year a “fluke”. The Saints had a great year and have a ridiculously good QB at the helm.
The problem is that, like Who Dat said above, you do have to get lucky to win a SB. That’s not a knock on any team that does it – it’s just reality. You have to have a few things break your way. And the Saints last year had a LOT of stuff break their way. That doesn’t mean they didn’t deserve their championship. But the odds of them getting all those breaks again two years in a row isn’t very high – that’s why it’s so hard for teams to win the SB two years in a row. Saints fans take comments like that really personally, but it’s not personal at all – it’s just how the NFL works.
The Falcons season, just like a lot of other teams, is very much in the hands of those breaks. They absolutely have the personnel to win 12 games – i don’t doubt that for a second. People keep knocking the D, which i really don’t understand. Our D got decimated by injuries last year, and we STILL went from 24th best to 21st best in the league. That’s pretty remarkable. If we’re even just slightly healthy, it’s gonna get way better than that this year. The D is being stocked and coached in such a way that it’s clearly moving in the right direction and it will get better every year.
The questions for me are more around those unknowns – who will get hurt? How tough/easy is our schedule really going to be? Is there gonna be some other team that just comes out of nowhere (like the Saints did last year) and just destroys everyone? Will someone have a playoff run like AZ did a couple of years ago where they just dismantle everyone?
I don’t know… but i love how the Falcons are positioning themselves and building something quality. It’s not built around 1 player, but around a team, and as fans we are going to reap the benefits of that for years to come.
truth
June 18th, 2010
4:24 pm
falcon4ever……..yes really. WHO DAT…..if Brees goes the team goes. Please go to your teams sight and watch some hi-lites….they won (at times) inspite of themselves. I think the Aints will be will be lucky to get 9 or 10 wins this year. The GM and coach fixed the Falcons problems on the D so please stay tuned on the “decent” defense you spoke of.
TMoney
June 18th, 2010
4:35 pm
I actually have the Saints finishing at 12-4. Their schedule is not daunting (nor is the Falcons, for that matter), but I’m leaving room for them not to have as many come from behind wins. But hey, how would you like to play host to a 12-4 wild card team in the first round?
mike young
June 18th, 2010
4:36 pm
Falcons and UGA Dawgs will be great this year… since we got the tragic oil spill here in the gulf.. with BP. our incapable President Obama & Coast Guard all ducking responsibility ??!!! this fisherman will be watching alot of TV this fall…..
FalconsFan284
June 18th, 2010
4:37 pm
Feathered—–What I was saying is that we have to play Philly in Philly, and they have had our number for years, Baltimore, New Orleans, Cinci and Green Bay. I think we’ll be competitive with all of these teams however it is unlikely that we won’t lose more than two of them. Green Bay is explosive and Baltimore seems to be right there with them. Now, if you have us only losing two games then which two are they?
falcon4ever
June 18th, 2010
4:39 pm
@ Truth- You cannot honestly say that you thought the Saints were going to win the Super Bowl. You must have me confused with another. What decent defense did I mention? Hi-lites? We didn’t have to many but which ones are you referring to ?
FEATHEREDFRIEND
June 18th, 2010
4:43 pm
I gotcha now. I do believe we can win all except for Cincy. I have a feeling they are on the rise . I also feel N.O. will take 1 from us. After those 2 I do not think anyone will be able to touch us untill deep into the playoffs
FalconsFan284
June 18th, 2010
4:44 pm
Mike—-I agree with you about the President, etc. I hope they get it cleaned up soon and you can get back to work. Let me know if there is anything I can do for you, ie. take up a collection or offer food. I’m sure my fellow Falcons fans will chip in!
Lank
June 18th, 2010
4:45 pm
Unlike last season, the Falcons have a good chance at winning all 16 games. Most of their more difficult games will be home, where Ryan has only lost one game (the two home losses last year were with Redman at QB). That is a 13-1 home record. Look at their schedule:
@Pittsburgh: No Big Ben. Dixon or Leftwich at QB? – ATL win – 1-0 record
Arizona: Matt Lienart and no Boldin. – ATL win – 2-0 record
@New Orleans: Super Bowl champs, I will give this to NO – 2-1 record
San Francisco: Remember last season? in SF? – ATL win – 3-1 record
@Cleveland: Jake Delhomme? Colt McCoy? haha – ATL win – 4-1 record
@Philadelphia: Kolb and the Eagles aren’t bad, calling this a tossup. 5-1 or 4-2
Cincinnati: Good team, but signed Pacman, Antonio Bryant, Matt Jones. These players will hurt the team more than help them. – ATL win – 6-1 or 5-2
Tampa Bay: Home, after a bye week, vs. the Bucs… – ATL win – 7-1 or 6-2
Baltimore: Cannot wait for this! I will call it a tossup for now. – 8-1 or 7-2 or 6-3
@St. Louis – …no comment… – ATL win – 9-1 best or 7-3 worst
Green Bay – two great teams in Atlanta – tossup – 10-1 best or 7-4 worst
@Tampa Bay – The bucs will have given up by week 13 – ATL win – 11-1 best or 8-4 worst
@Carolina – I take Ryan or Matt Moore or Clausen – ATL win – 12-1 best or 9-4 worst
@Seattle – New regime, will be good soon but not yet – ATL win – 13-1 best to 10-4 worst
New Orleans – gave NO the home win, I’m giving ATL their win at home – 14-1 best to 11-4 worst
Carolina – *same as above – 15-1 best to 12-4 worst.
This schedule isn’t that difficult and I see 12-4 being the worst case scenario. I don’t think they will go 16-0 or 15-1, but 13-3 or 14-2 don’t seem like crazy predictions to me. Hope everyone stays healthy this year!
cheshire
June 18th, 2010
4:46 pm
Yeah, i don’t really understand why so many people are knocking the Falcons D. I think they have the potential to be fantastic this year.
Remember, despite the brutal schedule last year and getting hit hard by injuries on that side of the ball, they still improved in their overall defensive ranking in the league (24th to 21st). What that tells you is that the D is moving in the right direction, even when it had every reason to take a step back. Now you add Sean Weatherspoon, Peria Jerry, William Moore and Dunta Robinson into the mix… you have a healthy Brian Williams back, and you have a ton of promising young talent (Lofton/Biermann/Sidbury/Owens/Grimes) with another year of experience under their belt. This defense is going to continue getting better…. you know that anyway with a defensive guy like Mike Smith running things. So I love the way we are stocking and coaching our D. If they aren’t a top 10 squad this year, they will be soon thereafter.
My questions are more on offense – i think that’s where the fate of this team really lies. Does Matt Ryan fulfill all his potential? Do Turner and Norwood bounce back? How big an impact does having a slot receiver like Douglas back help, and will it add that key dimension to the offense that was lacking last year?
FalconsFan284
June 18th, 2010
4:48 pm
Feathered—-I have the Falcons going to the NFC title game and losing to the Vikes. But I think the Ravens could be the other team in the Super Bowl. I really like the Ravens now that they have Boldin and they look to have improved their defense even more in the draft. And I love Green Bay this year. A split with the Saints and that leaves us with 4 losses.
truth
June 18th, 2010
4:53 pm
falcon4ever……go back and re-read. I answered you then I answered WHO DAT. No I didnt think the aints were gonna win the superbowl til after the Vikes game when lady luck and fate were all over them.
jerry
June 18th, 2010
4:53 pm
Mark’s #1 reason makes a hell of a lot ot sense I mean, it’s infallible.
Colorado bulldog
June 18th, 2010
5:10 pm
I won’t say how many wins they will have though Mark you may be close to right. I don’t get the people who posted on here 7-9. They went 9-7 last year with key injuries and Elam blowing a few games. How in the world would anyone see them losing two more than last year is beyond me. They still have some “if’s” – if Jenkins contributes more than he did, if the rush gets better, if the Dunta lives up to what we paid him and if they need a healthy year from Ryan, Turner and others.
No matter what the record ends up being or how far we go in the playoffs, its a good time to be a Falcons fan.
falcon4ever
June 18th, 2010
5:10 pm
ok Truth- You still have me confused or it’s you thats confused but at any rate I never thought the Saints would go any where near the playoffs. The cardinals game I thought would be a toss up but for sure I didn’t expect them to be in either the Vikes or Colts game. people may disagree but they won both of those games especially the Colts game. That was a whuppun’ after the 2nd qtr.
Starring Kam Fong as Chin Ho
June 18th, 2010
5:21 pm
Mark, on paper maybe, on the field, they’re still the Falcons until proven otherwise. They are due a sub 500 campaign. Meet the new Birds, same as the old Birds
Saints Fan
June 18th, 2010
5:25 pm
Mark,
First off, you cannot compane the Saints team to any previous NFC South teams. The previous NFC South teams didn’t have a great quarterback. Brees is a great quarterback. I like Ryan, but he cannot win games CONSITENTLY for the Falcons without a running game. Brees can.
Secondly, every team which has repeated in winning or making the Super Bowl had one thing in common. They had great quarterbacks (Montana, Elway, Aikman, Brady, etc) The teams with average quarterbacks and great defenses went once but couldn’t get back. Those teams are your Pittsburghs, Tampas, and Baltimores.
Thirdly, have you watched the Saints off season? All of their starters are returning except for Charles Grant and we upgraded over Grant. Fujita is another starter, but he played the least amount of downs on defense of any of our lbs. We’ve upgraded the bottom half of our roster which means our backups will be better. Even better than back-ups is our special teams play will be outstanding. Can you imagine having starters on special teams? That is what it will be like for the Saints this year.
Did you know that the Saints led the NFL in each of the last two seasons with players on Injured Reserves. That is a pretty big accomplishment to win a SB with more players on IR than any other team. You think that that is luck? That included the starting left tackle and starting nose tackle before the season started. Our two fourth round draft picks, our starting fullback after game 5 and so many other players like Charles Grant.
Did you know that Reggie Bush did not play against the Falcons, neither did Fujita, nor the starting corner (Jabari Greer) in game 2? You can talk about being 100 percent all you like, but the Saints were not. Their back-ups received tremendous experience. Don’t forget we brought in two cornerbacks off the street the same week that we SMASHED the Patriots.
The Saints and the Falcons are worlds apart. The Falcons are good, but they are not great. If the Saints stay healthy, especially Drew Brees, its going to be lights out again. I could easily see them starting 13-0 again this year.
For the record, Michael Turner is an average running back. Let me qualify that. He does not get 5-6 yards per carry as a Brandon Jacobs or a Mendenhall or Cedric Benson, etc. But he gets two yard gains, several losses of yards, and then every so often he breaks a cutback for 20 yards and an occassional 60 yarder. Then at the end of the game, he has 100 yards. That stat is deceiving. Similar to Adrian Peterson’s stats last year.
Get Comfortable and learn how to like the Saints being up top because they will be there for a while.
GP in AL
June 18th, 2010
5:26 pm
Green Bay has beefed up its O-Line, Stout Defense will be even better this year, and Great receiving corp. BEWARE!
Aaron Rodgers
June 18th, 2010
5:28 pm
So Right GP in AL
Aaron Rodgers
June 18th, 2010
5:28 pm
Quarterback is not bad either
TWH
June 18th, 2010
5:31 pm
HA HA HA HA HA…….HA HA HA HA HA……. HA HA HA HA HA…….HA HA HA HA HA…….HA HA HA HA HA…….
Ken Strickland
June 18th, 2010
6:26 pm
I don’t see 12-4 being a problem for this team. After all, last yr we were only a consistent FG kicker, a 3pt loss to the Saints and a 3pt over time loss to the Giants from going 11-5. With a much better team and a much easier schedule, we can do 12-4. No team had more luck last yr than the Saints.
Let’s face it, if the Colts had been able to play a healthy AGonzalez @ WR, a healthy Sanders @ SS and a healthy DFreeney @ DE, the results would likely have been different. A healthy DFreeney alone would have made things much different for QB DBrees, and the outcome would have been a lot different as well.
FalconsFan284
June 18th, 2010
6:39 pm
Ken—-There’s more then a bit of truth in what you’ve just said. Until Freeney re-injured his ankle the Saints were on the ropes and looking punch drunk.
sayntH8r
June 18th, 2010
6:48 pm
Who dat? Who dat say thay gown beet ‘em ‘Lanna dirty birds? Who dat???