The 2010 Falcons: They’ll win 12 and play for the NFC title
Dunta Robinson: You wanted a cornerback, and here he is. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
For football, June is the silly season. Nothing much is happening, but everybody has an idea what will happen. Here’s where I add to the silliness. Here’s where I tell you why the Falcons will play for the NFC title on Jan. 23, 2011.
1. The NFC South is the league’s most fluid division. Not once in eight tries has it yielded consecutive division winners, not even when the reigning NFC South champ was also the Super Bowl winner. (Tampa Bay went from lifting the Lombardi Trophy in February 2003 to finishing 7-9 ten months later.) This is noteworthy because the New Orleans Saints, as we know, somehow won Super Bowl XLIV.
2. The Saints are vulnerable. They’ve had the usual post-Super round of controversy and then some. A lawsuit (since withdrawn and sent to arbitration) by the team’s former security director accusing Saints staffers of misusing Vicodin. Tight end Jeremy Shockey fainting in the weight room. Safety Darren Sharper getting into a Twitter fight with a former Minnesota teammate. Tackle Jammal Brown and running back Pierre Thomas wanting more money. The Saints weren’t that much better than the Falcons a year ago, and this time they won’t be as good.
3. The defensive upgrade begun in the offseason of 2009 will grow teeth in 2010. The Falcons changed five starters from 2008 to last season, but they didn’t get immediately better at every position. Some of that had to do with injury, and tackle Peria Jerry’s return to health stands to give the D-line a boost. The same should happen in the secondary with the advent of cornerback Dunta Robinson and at linebacker with the addition of Sean Weatherspoon. The Falcons actually nosed upward defensively in 2009 — they finished 21st in total defense, up from 24th in 2008. They should be close to the top 10 this season.
Loading ...4. If 2009 was as bad as it gets for Matt Ryan, the Falcons will be just fine. The quarterback wasn’t awful last season; he just wasn’t quite as precise as he’d been as a rookie. Yes, there were mitigating factors: Michael Turner got hurt and Jerious Norwood stayed hurt and the line didn’t block as well for the run as it had in 2008. But the Falcons’ whole offensive approach seemed a tad off last season. Too many short passes — that’s what happens when you add Tony Gonzalez — and not enough field-stretching. That figures to change in 2010. The Falcons have had a long time to scout themselves and see where they went wrong, and slot receiver Harry Douglas is due to return from knee surgery.
5. That never-consecutive-winning-seasons thing has finally gone away. Even Falcons insiders were of two minds about the much-discussed mark of ignominy: Some didn’t think it was a big deal, and some thought it was the biggest deal going. But now it’s gone, and the Falcons deserve great credit for taking a season going wrong and wringing a 9-7 record out of it. They know now that these coaches are clever enough to have a Plan B — as opposed to Jim Mora and Co. — and that there’s enough talent and resolve on this roster to persevere in the face of injuries and distractions. No, 2009 wasn’t a championship season, but it could well have been the season that prefigures a championship.
Prediction time: The Falcons will go 12-4, will beat Green Bay in the conference semifinals and will play Dallas in Dallas for the NFC title and the right to play in Super Bowl XLV, which is also in … er, Dallas. And how, you’re asking, will the Falcons fare against the Cowboys?
And I say: Let me hold onto a shred of mystery, please. It’s June. I see no reason to offer a prediction on the outcome of the 2011 NFC championship game until at least the Fourth of July.
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393 comments Add your comment
GSU Eagle 91
June 18th, 2010
12:01 pm
Mark..I like your optimism here! As a die-hard Falcon fan, I despise the Saints. That being stated now I must say that I feel they can repeat if key players stay healthy. Coach Payton has put together a COMPLETE team that has few, if any, weaknesses…The Falcons do have a few suspect spots at pass rush and deep threat wide-outs….But I am optimistic we can win 10 games and get into the playoffs.
Eyes wide open!!!
June 18th, 2010
12:02 pm
You Falcon fans have lost your D***M Minds!!!! this is the same team that got pushed around by Carolina and the Giants, and needed a last second pass to beat the lowly Bucs at home!!!!You have no pass rush, your QB led the league in 4th qtr INTs and your O-Line is suspect at best!!!! I know its friday, but please put down the weed and step away from the bong!!!!!!You have to be high to believe this kind os **ish!!!!!
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
June 18th, 2010
12:11 pm
I’ll buy it- especially with the schedule we have this year. Are the Falcons any close on getting Spoon a contract??
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Ted M
June 18th, 2010
12:13 pm
I think a lot of people are over estimating the health of the Falcon. Turner still isn”t 100%; Peria and Moore aren’t practicing yet. Norwood is always hurt. The Falcon should have drafted Dryer in the 6th round even though he really stunk it up at the combine.
Ted M
June 18th, 2010
12:14 pm
Mark’s watching the soccer game.
Falcon60
June 18th, 2010
12:14 pm
People said the Falcons going to the SB in ‘98 was a fluke but I didn’t buy that either. The fact of the matter was they beat probably the best team in the league that year in their own place. As far as the Saints, it maybe wasn’t a fluke season but I’d be surprised if they are as good as last year. The Falcons could very well win between 9 & 12 games; you have to remember that every good team has also had a lot of luck thrown in. Injuries can make the best mediocre. So I guess we’ll see won’t we? All I can really say is the NFC South is the most evenly matched division in football. If any one team come out of divisional play better than .500 they are probably winning it. If the Falcons can win at least one divisional game on the road I think they will go to and go far in the playoffs. If they make the playoffs and play Dallas Brooking better have his head on a swivel. I personally hope Harvey Dahl knocks his punk ass into Austin.
Dan
June 18th, 2010
12:16 pm
Any word on the status (and health) of the receiving corps? Does Meier have a chance? Is Douglas solid, or will he shatter once he crosses the middle?
ChippersLoveChild
June 18th, 2010
12:16 pm
“They should be close to the top 10 this season.”
Aaaannnnddd I’m done with this article…
Falcon60
June 18th, 2010
12:17 pm
Uh “Eyes Wide Open”, you spell the “D” word with an “N” on the end. So just who is smokin’ weed here??
extremus
June 18th, 2010
12:21 pm
The Falcons, if they can stay healthy, appear poised to perhaps do something very special this year; a Superbowl appearance is certainly not out of the question. And the Braves just might pull off an unexpected run to the postseason and even a World Series championship. The Hawks may only be a different coaching approach away from at least attaining equality with the Magic, Celtics, and Cavs (though it’s also very possible they could plummet the other way, too). So overall I’d have to say these are exciting times to be a fan of Atlanta pro sports teams. We should enjoy it for however long it may last, because as we know perhaps more than any other sports town, success can be fleeting and fickle.
Dr. Warren
June 18th, 2010
12:22 pm
Everyone claims the Falcons will be better this year in large part because injuries undermined them last year. Well, unfortunately, there is no natural law that says injuries can’t happen this year, as well. I hope you’re right, though, MB. Hindsight, is, of course, 20/20, but I think this prediction is inherently more solid than your Hawks Conference Finals prediction last fall. We’d all take Smitty as a difference-maker over Woody, and the character of his team seems more solid and consistent, as they showed winning the final three last year.
Boses
June 18th, 2010
12:22 pm
Mark, was the US just robbed of a goal?
D B Cooper
June 18th, 2010
12:25 pm
You are dreaming Bradley but you have to be a homer. Robinson is an avg CB and I think he will be no better than what we have now. For instance in 6 or so years he only has 6 ints. and dont tell he is so good nobody throws at him.
P Jerry has been a bust.
No idea if Weatherspoon can be a force
The Falcons are gonna give up alot of points at crutial times.
The OFF. is adequate providing White is healthy but if he gets hurt look out.
So there take that homer LOL
EaglesFan
June 18th, 2010
12:26 pm
Falcons will have a good season (10 wins), not 12 wins though. Green Bay may be stout, but they have no D, Minnesota is still a mystery thanks to that Wrangler Jeans guy, the Saints are defending champs, and the NFC is a cluster. I can see the Falcons sneaking to the NFC title game and then falling, because with only 10 wins they will not have home field.
D B Cooper
June 18th, 2010
12:26 pm
13 ints
Dr. Warren
June 18th, 2010
12:35 pm
@DB–
How can Jerry be a bust when he missed his opening season because of injury? Doesn’t someone have to actually play poorly for at least two or three years before he’s called a bust? Good God. And though you spell crucial with a “t” instead of a “c,” I don’t want to pass quick judgments on your intelligence. I’m a fair man.
Dr., Dr., give me the news
June 18th, 2010
12:38 pm
I’ve looked at the Falcons’ schedule and can’t for the life of me figure who can possibly beat them. I assume they’ll have one bad game and lose and probably lose a throwaway game late in the year, so I’m guessing 14-2. I then have them winning the NFC championship game against the Redskins. They then lose the Super Bowl to the Steelers. (Partly because the Steelers have a quarterback who rests for a few games at the beginning of the season and thus more fresh and less beat up than the other team’s qb.)
Southside Lady
June 18th, 2010
12:48 pm
Mark,
I Love the Atlanta Falcons. I have been a fan for over 20 years now. I believe in them and I believe they will make a great run for the Division Title this year. However, I must admit, it scares me that you predicted it, because you predicted that the Celtics would win the NBA Finals, and oh well, as we all know, the LAKERS did it again.
Still, all in all, I hope this time you are right!
FalconsFan284
June 18th, 2010
12:48 pm
When it comes to divisional games, I see the Falcons and Saints being head and shoulders above Tampa Bay and Carolina. The Panthers are probably the least improved team in the division due to the losses of Julius Peppers and Jake Delhomme. Delhomme may not have been able to get it done on the field but they should have kept him around for his leadership abilities. Tampa Bay will benefit from having Josh Freeman out there for the entire season but I don’t think they’ve done enough to be competitive with the other teams in the division, plus I dislike their coach.
Now, for the heart of the matter, the Falcons are the most improved team within the division and one of the most improved in the NFL. By getting Jerry,Williams, Dahl, Moore, Bryant and Turner back from injury they got an immediate upgrade over the team that finished last season with three consecutive wins and giving up an average of 6.66 ppg during that stretch. When you factor in Sean Weatherspoon and Dunta Robinson you can see a real foundation for a strong defense, probably closer to top 14 then top 10.
When we look at the Saints, they have added Alex Brown and Patrick Robinson to their defense but those moves do very little against balanced offenses, such as what the Falcons have. Still, they have that incredible ofense and Drew Brees; so, they can never be counted out for the division title. I just happen to see them as being a clone of the 2009 Cardinals. If we remember correctly, the 2008 version of the Cards went all the way to the Super Bowl despite having no real defense. In 2009 they brought back nearly the exact same team and the defense was exposed all season long keeping their high powered ofense on the sidelines. I think the same thing will hold true for the 2010 version of the Saints. The Saints schedule is easy enough for them to go 11-5 or 10-6 and still make it into the playoffs as a Wild Card team. And, just like the Cards they will get bounced out in the first round. I’ll even go so far as to name the Dallas Cowboys or Green Bay Packers as the team that knocks them out!
The Falcons have a much easier schedule then last year, at least that is how it looks right now, and should benefit from that fact. I see the Dirty Birds losing to the Saints, Eagles, Packers and Ravens to finish at 12-4, with the division crown and a first round bye. In the playoffs, they will probably take on the Dallas Cowboys, as the East Division winner, but, since, we get them in the Dome I see the Falcons moving to the NFC Championship game. There they will meet and lost to Bret Favre’s Minnesota Vikings, in Bret’s final, magical season.
joe
June 18th, 2010
12:50 pm
As a fan of both the Falcons and Cowboys…I would love it.
Falcon60
June 18th, 2010
12:52 pm
How can any self respecting Falcon fan be a Cowboy fan???
clownbaby
June 18th, 2010
1:06 pm
Mark, I like your articles but you do have a way of jinxing us from time to time. Lets hope this is not the case in this incident.
Randy
June 18th, 2010
1:13 pm
I can see 12-4. This team is capable. But as always It’ll come down to getting a couple of breaks and not having a lot of injuries. I’d love for this to be the season for Gonzo. Who knows how many seasons he has left?
Texas Pete
June 18th, 2010
1:18 pm
This season is all about Matt Ryan. If he throws as many bad INTs as he did last year then it’ll be more of the same. Maybe a wildcard birth with a healthy Turner. If Ryan can protect the football better in this 3rd season then the sky is the limit.
Andy
June 18th, 2010
1:20 pm
Mark
What was your prediction for the Falcons last season? Just curious. I think saying that they will move into the top 10 in defense in the league is a bit optimistic. I hope you are right.
Bill W.
June 18th, 2010
1:24 pm
Falcons win 12?, are you high?, they won’t win more than 7.
Ted M
June 18th, 2010
1:34 pm
I think Mark predicted 10-6 last year.
BUBBA GUMP
June 18th, 2010
1:36 pm
Old timers like me remember Mark’s predictions……………………..Keep em to yourself from now on …..Please…..LOL
Trolling the Troll
June 18th, 2010
1:38 pm
Dave In Tampa
June 18th, 2010
11:54 am
“They’ll win 12 and play for the NFC title”
Smoke em if ya got em Mark! 7 wins tops!
_____________________
Bill W.
June 18th, 2010
1:24 pm
Falcons win 12?, are you high?, they won’t win more than 7.
_____________________
Really? And would either of you geniuses like to clarify which 9 games you see the Falcons losing? We’re waiting…
falcon4ever
June 18th, 2010
1:45 pm
Enter your comments here
T3
June 18th, 2010
1:46 pm
Oooohhhh Man. This is gonna be good !!!!!!!!!!!!
If there is no BIG12 Championship game, good ole Jerry Jones
is gonna lose TENS OF MILLIONS of revenue for “Jerry World.”
So, that means, we’re gonna have a “Clash of the Titans.”
Jerry Jones (Arkansas alum) vs. the BIG12 (aka Texas & OK).
Orangebloods.com wrote to day that Jones has already begun
a process to try to move Arkansas to the BIG12.
Jones N-E-E-D-S BIG12 Championship game at Jerry World and also wants Arkansas in te BIG12.
The BIG12 (aka Texas & OK) have said they dont want a BIG12 title game and arent sure they want to back to 12 teams.
Boy, this is gonna good theatre as this gets
played out over the next few weeks.
truthspitter
June 18th, 2010
1:53 pm
This team is not good enough on defense to win 12 games. I’m sure you can feel comfortable because the same was said about the Saints but it is fools goal to think that a mediocre defensive unit can win that many games. I think 10-6 is more feasible.
falcon4ever
June 18th, 2010
1:56 pm
Sorry for the above! I’ll have to say 12 wins is a bit on the optomistic side although it would be a welcome change. Playing for the nfc title game is a really far stretch. The teams that make it to the playoffs are the elite and it sounds like we are just giving to ourselves. Cautious optomism would be a better in this case as the Falcons season has not yet started. Injuries could plaque us again and although I’m glad Robinson is here, he is injury prone. Turner could blow it out this year or re-aggrivate an old injury before pre-season even starts. Lets not put ourselves in Dallas come Feb. when it’s only June now. One game at a time is much smarter than overlooking the season to pre- maturely put yourself in the nfc title game
chc4
June 18th, 2010
1:57 pm
I know it’s slow sports time but why make a prediction about the NFL season now? Seems silly as hell.
JTH
June 18th, 2010
1:58 pm
I too think that depth is the Falcons biggest problems. Peria is still effectively a rookie considering he got hurt early in the season and was injured a lot in college. Abraham is always a injury threat. Norwood seems injury prone, ect, ect.
Still, love the direction, Dimitroff and Smith are taking this team. They will win the NFC South this seaon but lose the NFC title game. 2011 will be the year somebody(ATL) will win the South 2 years in a row. And then Atlanta will win Superbowl 46.
chc4
June 18th, 2010
1:58 pm
truthspitter said — “it is fools goal”
Seriously? Thanks for the laugh dude. You might want to look that one up.
JTH
June 18th, 2010
1:59 pm
First!
And I’m predicting 11-5 this season.
Dave In Tampa
June 18th, 2010
2:00 pm
Trolling the Troll – They will lose all, but 7 games. How’s that for clarification.
Hey if they win 12, great! Based on their track record and that Mark Bradley said they would win 12, they simply will not do it. 7 TOPS!
"Chef" Tim Dix
June 18th, 2010
2:01 pm
Who’s doing the Braves game tonight?
Dave In Tampa
June 18th, 2010
2:02 pm
Oh, by the way, thanks for the “geniuses” label. That was nice of you!
Trolling the Troll
June 18th, 2010
2:06 pm
Dave In Tampa
June 18th, 2010
2:00 pm
Trolling the Troll – They will lose all, but 7 games. How’s that for clarification.
Hey if they win 12, great! Based on their track record and that Mark Bradley said they would win 12, they simply will not do it. 7 TOPS!
________________________
Aww, is it to hard for little davey down in tampa to actually make a prediction with any merit? It’s ok davey, we all know the Falcons are better than the Tampa Bay Sucs and this is your way of compensation. You know all about compensation, right? I’m sure this isn’t your fist use of it.
Trolling the Troll
June 18th, 2010
2:07 pm
Dave In Tampa
June 18th, 2010
2:02 pm
Oh, by the way, thanks for the “geniuses” label. That was nice of you!
__________________________
Not only can little davey not make a valid prediction, he’s not smart enough to recognize sarcasm. Poor little davey.
FEATHEREDFRIEND
June 18th, 2010
2:11 pm
I say 14-2 with one loss to New Orleans and one loss to Cincy. We rest up on the 1st round bye, celebrate to much, get soft and loose to New Orleans or Green Bay. At least we appear to be in the hunt!!!
Dave In Tampa
June 18th, 2010
2:11 pm
Trolling the Troll – Sounds like I frustrated you a little bit there.
I hate the Bucs! I lived in Atlanta for over 25 years. I know their track record. You were still in diapers. Funny how one has to attack someones character if they don’t agree. Just can’t have a discussion can you? I never attacked your character and will not play that game. My opinion and it is my opinion, the Falcons will only win seven games. You don’t have to like it and I don’t care either way. GROW UP!
cdog
June 18th, 2010
2:15 pm
they need the wide reciever to compliment roddy white.it needs to be addressed before camp starts. also a consistent field goal kicker should be added.depth in the running back position should be addressed. overall, if they can remain healthy at qb and on defense, they have an excellent chance to go far into the playoffs.
Dave In Tampa
June 18th, 2010
2:15 pm
Talk about not recognizing sarcasm…… Did you really think I was serious with that response? REALLY!
Trolling the Troll
June 18th, 2010
2:19 pm
Dave In Tampa
June 18th, 2010
2:11 pm
Trolling the Troll – Sounds like I frustrated you a little bit there.
I hate the Bucs! I lived in Atlanta for over 25 years. I know their track record. You were still in diapers. Funny how one has to attack someones character if they don’t agree. Just can’t have a discussion can you? I never attacked your character and will not play that game. My opinion and it is my opinion, the Falcons will only win seven games. You don’t have to like it and I don’t care either way. GROW UP!
_______________________
Haha, davey, you really aren’t too sharp, are you. Please show where I attacked your character. Your intelligence, yes. And I can’t have a conversation? I tried to have one about who you thought the Falcons would lose to, but you couldn’t have a legit answer. You assume you know so much about me, claiming I was in diapers, but how do you know anything about me, davey. If anything, I think I’ve managed to get under your oh-so-sensitive skin.
You can’t answer my question about who the Falcons will lose to, yet accuse me of not being able to have a discussion. You tell me I need to grow up, yet you’re the one that stone walled when asked a legit football question. So, davey, which of us really needs to grow up?
falcon4ever
June 18th, 2010
2:21 pm
@ Dave in Tampa– Please don’t concern yourself with the Troll. He and about 2 or 3 others on here will call you names, question your … i’m not going there but you get what I mean, if you don’t totally agree with their synopsis of the Falcons
Dave In Tampa
June 18th, 2010
2:21 pm
Your post speaks volumes there my friend. Falcons 7-9!