SI’s Peter King looks at the Falcons and sees mediocrity
Mike Smith reacts to news that his team is the 16th-best. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
Perhaps you noted during minicamp that Matt Ryan said to the world’s worst journalist — that’d be me — that he believes the Falcons are “a lot closer to 12 or 13 wins than to eight.” Twelve or 13 wins would make this a really good team. The esteemed Peter King of SI.com, however, regards it differently.
In his newest power rankings, Mr. King ranks the Falcons 16th in a 32-team league, which would be the utter definition of mediocrity. He also sees the Falcons as the third-best team in the four-team NFC South, behind both New Orleans (No. 5) and Carolina (No. 8).
That’s correct. He has the Panthers, who historically are the NFL most’s overrated bunch, eight spots ahead of the Falcons. Mr. King believes dumping Jake Delhomme and will propel Carolina onward and upward, which it might. But still: A team with an unproven quarterback (Matt Moore) and a potential lame duck of a head coach (John Fox) is going to jump above the Falcons, who with all their injuries still finished a game ahead of the Panthers in 2009?
(Oh, yes. One thing more. Julius Peppers no longer plays for Carolina.)
Enough. The point here isn’t to argue with the esteemed PK but to note his reasons for not loving the Falcons. Quoth Mr. King:
The Falcons are healthier, and better. I just think there are two teams in the division better right now — unless Matt Ryan has a Drew Brees-type year. I don’t think he has one of those in him … yet. Not many quarterbacks do.
OK, a bit more quibbling (sorry, can’t resist): The whole point of the Falcons’ offseason — signing Dunta Robinson, drafting Sean Weatherspoon — was to upgrade the defense to the extent the Falcons don’t have to score 30 points a game to win. And I can’t understand how Carolina minus Peppers is a more enticing team than the Falcons plus Robinson.
But reasonable folks can, I submit, disagree reasonably. And I guess that’s what I’m doing here. Because I think the 2010 Falcons will be really, really good. Division-winning good.
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226 comments Add your comment
Dawgs97
May 17th, 2010
12:05 pm
I don’t take you seriously, anyway, Bradley. Remind us again your prediction for Magic-Hawks?
Mark Bradley
May 17th, 2010
12:06 pm
A confession: I also had the Falcons at 10-6 winning the NFC Southeast in 2009. Came close on the record — one win off — but less close on the division title.
PMC
May 17th, 2010
12:11 pm
The Panthers do have for the most part a very good and tough team and they finished much stronger than they started. At the end of the year they were one of the teams playing the best football. That’s probably why he went the way he did. I just disagree with him slightly with the rating.
teamguy
May 17th, 2010
12:13 pm
That is the second reference to “ad hominem” I have seen today. .word of the day, maybe? Personally, I like your ranking of the Falcons better than King’s, Mr Bradley. Predicting the future is tough. .just ask Ken Cook.
FalconsFan
May 17th, 2010
12:15 pm
Mark,
You pick on Peter King but in his article he wrote this:
“So before I go out this morning, let me embarrass myself by ranking the NFL one through 32. That’s not being overly modest — just realistic. I stink at this. In fact, my recommendation if you really want to find out what’s going to happen in the NFL this year is to take a bye on this column.”
So, if he admits at being horrible at his picks, why criticize him?
Carl
May 17th, 2010
12:16 pm
PK, put down the crack pipe.
PMC
May 17th, 2010
12:20 pm
The other thing with his view of the Panthers…. I don’t get where he’s seeing this desperation and or failing to pay a coach to go away as this desperation to win now. If anything the ownership is saying that they expect a work stoppage and they aren’t paying anyone to not work so soon after they ridiculously paid Jake Delhomme and for a couple of years paid a ton of money to Peppers for him to sulk. They finished REALLY strong but they did so after being frustrated by losing for the bulk of the year.
This entire division is fairly close and very good outside of Tampa who are getting better quickly as thier coach learns on the job. The NFC South is again going to be a war of attrition. Anyone can beat anyone at any time.
Mark Bradley
May 17th, 2010
12:21 pm
I’m not pickin’ on Pete. Just disagreeing with him. There’s a difference.
Greg
May 17th, 2010
12:27 pm
At the beginning of last season King picked the Falcons to go 10-6 (and win their division). He thought Carolina would be 9-7, N.O would be 7-9, and Tampa would be 4-12. So he was very close on three out of four teams, missing by only one game apiece on those three. He knows his stuff. I happen to think he’s closer to the truth about the Falcons in 2010 than other people here think (but I hope I’m wrong of course). We did not do enough to improve our personnel. We don’t at all look like we will challenge N.O. King’s evaluation of Carolina is eccentric; it’s hard to know how to evaluate a team in the midst of such upheaval. But I wouldn’t write him off.
David
May 17th, 2010
12:29 pm
Pete is an idiot and a jerk. When the Jets punter was out of the playoff game last year (the game Fealy kicked and punter), Pete twitted that the punter had no guts. Turns out, the punter had an irregular heart beat. Pete apologized, the next week in his MMQB. This show he is uninformed and just writes stuff of the cuff.
The Cashew
May 17th, 2010
12:30 pm
That’s what I’m talking about Mark!!!
You give ‘em hell!
Ginger
May 17th, 2010
12:31 pm
I do think that Mr. King is offbase with this analysis. The Falcons D looks to be significantly better with D. Robinson, S. Weatherspoon additions….Also see having P. Jerry and William M. the safety– (rookie safety from Mizzou last yr that was injured) back will also help defense—so four new players or 30% of defense–should provide some pop. Now if Sidbury and Biermann continue to improve as DE and C. Davis continues to get better…then the Pass rush will be better and don’t forget Jerry. Also think that Abraham will get more than 5.5 sacks this yr…big help in getting Dunta. The secondary has just got to play better this yr than last yr—so looking for new secondary coach and new players and more young experienced players to pull that off.
Lets go to offense side of ball…Matt Ryan weathered the dreaded soph. slump yr…so looking for a pretty good yr from him. He has some weapons in Roddy, Tony, Michael…Need Harry to come back with a good yr and the receiver Kerry from Kansas State is going to be a good hands receiver that will help. Mike Jenkins must step up his game–period…I would hate to look up his stats….and I still remember some key dropped passes for 1st downs (Saints game and others)…Jenkins has to become more of a threat at receiver…..One thing about the offense that I don’t see is a RB consistently catching passes out of the backfield…that is a weapon that a lot of NFL teams use..maybe Jearious can get this going or sign a FA running back that can.
See Falcons having a with wins anywhere from 10 to 12…….One last thought—to do this must have very reliable field goad kicker
Dr. Warren
May 17th, 2010
12:33 pm
The reality is no one can predict sports outcomes. Haven’t we learned that enough by now? Who picked the Birds to go 11-5 in ‘08? Who picked the Celtics to be in the conference finals, much less up 1-0. It’s all just for fun anyway, folks. As I wrote after Mark’s blog about Ryan’s prediction of 12 wins, the only thing that matters is the play on the field during the games. The NFL by design is a wildcard.
Ticket holder
May 17th, 2010
12:34 pm
What does King know? nothing!
cheshire
May 17th, 2010
12:34 pm
Yeah, King seems to have lost his mind here. I’ve always liked reading his stuff, but I have no idea what he’s talking about or how he can back that up. When you look at where these teams were last year and what they did in the offseason, it’s kind of absurd to suggest Carolina has somehow leapfrogged Atlanta. In order for that to happen, Moore would have to have a Drew Brees type year as well, which King said himself doesn’t happen often. Strange logic.
I will say about King that he’s never seemed to be that crazy about the Falcons… not sure why. He always seems to either just ignore them or be unreasonably negative about them.
IceFan
May 17th, 2010
12:35 pm
11-5.
MDub
May 17th, 2010
12:36 pm
I don’t think the Falcons will be better than New Orleans, but they’ll be better than the Panthers. I’d put them in the top 10, if they stay healthy. I don’t know why the Falcons would be predicted to be #16 by any analyst. Their defense will be better and their offense should be solid.
hawesg
May 17th, 2010
12:36 pm
ESPN has the Falcons ranked 10th. That seems closer to the mark given Jeria’s status and the lack of a real DE.
IceFan
May 17th, 2010
12:40 pm
Sonny Clusters,
I had a Banana Cream Pie Blizzard last night…………..Awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! My wife got the Reese’s Blizzard. 25 flavors to choose from was like sensory overload.
Dawgs97
May 17th, 2010
12:40 pm
10th is probably fair. The defense is still somewhat of an unknown (though it has to be better) and how will Michael Turner hold up? But unless the Falcons get pillaged with major injuries to key starters, they absolutely will finish ahead of Carolina.
I will say this – Matt Moore standing there just picking his nose will be better than Jake Delhomme. I was DUMBFOUNDED when Carolina gave him that huge contract last offseason after his abysmal performance in their last playoff game from Jan 2009.
TROTTINGHOME
May 17th, 2010
12:43 pm
Bradley has known Peter King for 30 years…humm humm…that explains the comparative examples of incompetence.
Eiusdem generis.
As for the Falcon’s…11 wins and…then we’ll see.
Dr. Warren
May 17th, 2010
12:44 pm
Let’s put it as tactfully as possible (although we’re all Atlantans here anyway, right?): predictions are nearly impossible, but if you’re a national journalist, with a reputation on the line, you can’t really go wrong picking Atlanta teams to be disappointing, mediocre, or just plain bad.
cheshire
May 17th, 2010
12:48 pm
yeah, the more i look at that article the more insane it gets. some of the teams he has ahead of us just don’t make any sense at all (Miami at #6??? Seattle at #11???? huh?).
but worse than that, his own logic doesn’t hold up. why does Matt Ryan have to have a Drew Brees type season for us to be better than 16th? and he even says we are going to be better… if we’re going to be better than 9-7 in a season that was filled with adversity, that makes us at worst 10-6 or 11-5. that doesn’t get us above 16th?
this is just odd. King is a smart guy, but it’s like he just turned his brain off when he wrote this. i think more realistically he just doesn’t know much about the Falcons. i remember either last year or the year before, it was through the first 8 weeks of the season and he wrote in one of his articles that he hadn’t even watched them play a game yet. i just don’t think they interest him, hence his obvious cluelessness about the state of the team.
geno
May 17th, 2010
12:50 pm
12 & 4 at least. The “FALCONS” are poised to win it all!!! GO FALCONS”.
FalconTransplant
May 17th, 2010
12:50 pm
Peter King on SI
May 11, 2009
Power Rankings
1 *Patties
2 Pittsburgh
3 Giants
4 Bears
5 *Colts
6 *Eagles
7 *Chargers
8 *Ravens
9 *Cowboys
10 Titans
11. ATLANTA
12, *Cards
13 Texans
14 *Green Bay
15. *Vikes
16. *Jets
17. Miami
18 Caralina
19 Seahawks
20 Broncos
21 Jags
22 Buffalo
23 Skins
24 *Saints
25 49ers
26 Buccs
27 Raiders
28 *Bengals
29 Chiefs
30 Rams
31 Lions
32 Browns
* = playoff teams
So my guess is he simply guesses.
But if so at 16 we look to be in good shape.
Look at the other teams on the list he missed
Rajin Mojo
May 17th, 2010
12:50 pm
King needs to drink the juice and get on the bandwagon!!! The Falcons will be great, super, they are feared!!!!!!
Gwinnett Fred
May 17th, 2010
12:50 pm
I’d rather look at his rankings and glass half full say “pretty good, he has the Falcons just 2 spots behind the Patriots” – I’ll take that any day of the week!
Supes
May 17th, 2010
12:52 pm
If they avoid any significant injuries in 2010…Falcons will be a playoff team. That makes them one of the 12 best teams in the NFL…BOOK IT!
I disagree with mr. King…he should stick to making “phone calls to players” and leading in with that on the NBC Sunday night game of the week…
StingerSplash
May 17th, 2010
12:52 pm
What? You mean Peter King dislodged his dome from Brett Favre’s exit ramp long enough to see something else?
Does this mean we have six more weeks of winter?
GetwhatUpayfor
May 17th, 2010
12:53 pm
Time will tell but I’ll bet on the Falcons.
waynester
May 17th, 2010
12:54 pm
From the comments, it sounds like FalconsFan is one of the few who actually read the article over at SI.com. King (whom I rarely read, preferring Ross Tucker) admits right up front that he hasn’t a clue–so take him at his word and ignore whatever he writes! If he lacks confidence in his prediction, I don’t see any reason to discuss it further. Might as well lay out a grid with all the teams and make your prediction based on where the rooster poops–the results would be just as reliable….
Shady
May 17th, 2010
12:56 pm
Peter King also blamed the cold winter and record snow on global warming. Nuff Said.
DawgDad
May 17th, 2010
12:58 pm
They just finished with a winning record given an absolute killer schedule and while enduring numerous key injuries (Jerry, Moore, Williams, Turner, Norwood, Ryan, etc.), and this guy thinks they are middle of the pack this year? They beat the Jets late in the season last year, when the game meant EVERYTHING to the Jets. What is the
Sorry, Mark. Moronic is right on target for Mr. King. It’s not personal, but how else would you describe his analysis, if not moronic?
Rufino Linares
May 17th, 2010
12:58 pm
Just the way I likes it — Falcons under the radar, hiding in the weeds, sneaking up on other teams not expecting us to be any good.
ryan
May 17th, 2010
1:00 pm
Well you do have to admit that Falcons did not do enough in free agency i am not agreeing with Peter King but the Falcons still have a lot of holes on offence and defence . The Falcons still need a deep threat WR and they still need DE. The Saints loaded up so did the Panthers and so did Tampa. The Falcons have a steep hill to climb.
DK
May 17th, 2010
1:00 pm
I can’t wait for September. Then all of the BS talking will be replaced by reality. The funny thing is that I see Carolina being #4 in the NFC South. The Bucs are going to be an improved team this year, the Saints and the Falcons will be fighting for the division and Carolina will be lucky to win 5 games. The Falcons pass rush will be better because of the return and improvement of young talent up front and better DBs. Turner looks better than we’ve ever seen him and Snelling is ready to bust out. All reports are that third year QB Ryan has the system down and looks sharp and in control.
I like the fact that the Falcons are not receiving a lot of love and attention. It means less distraction and pressure and more motivation to prove everybody wrong.
2010 is going to be a great year for Falcons fans. Carolina fans better enjoy the love before the season and the excuses start.
ChippersLoveChild
May 17th, 2010
1:02 pm
Pretty sure he said the Bears were going to win the Super Bowl last year….
DK
May 17th, 2010
1:04 pm
Ryan,
“The Saints loaded up so did the Panthers”
What offseason activities were you watching? The Saints and the Panthers clearly LOST talent through FA and most of their draft pickups will not be very helpful out of the gate. I didn’t see anything these two teams did that can be considered as “loaded up”.
Bigstack O' Pancakes. It's an Irish name!
May 17th, 2010
1:07 pm
Peter King is a goober. I wonder what he thought of the Saints last May. The Panthers are hurdling towards the 1st pick in next years draft not 2nd in the NFC South. No way the Saints are as good as last year. They can’t possibly go injury free a 2nd year in a row or have all the lucky bounces they had last year. Same thing goes for Atlanta. They can’t possibly be as snake bitten as they were last year when the Saints could just barely get by the injury riddled Falcons. Falcons finish 12-4 and win the NFC South.
Delbert D.
May 17th, 2010
1:09 pm
Well, Carolina always has that wide receiver that gives the Falcons trouble because they can’t find him. Now Matt Moore has to figure out who he is and try to find him.
PMC
May 17th, 2010
1:10 pm
Basically though everything that reasonably could go wrong last year DID go wrong and they won 9 games. This team should win 11 above that is gravy if they can at least split with the Saints.
Manny
May 17th, 2010
1:13 pm
I don’t see the Panthers being better than the Falcons, but Peter King has very little confidence in Matt Ryan. There’s too much tape and he was pretty one-dimensional last year. I agree with Peter King on that point, but I think that the Falcons are more talented this year than last year.
The winning formula here is to control the ball with the run game. Let Matt Ryan do what he does best… smart, easy passes. The O-line has to play big for Turner and the running game. And avoid a lot of big plays by getting a rush on the QB, get linebackers that can cover and upgrade your D-line. That’s Falcon football.
But if you rely on Matt Ryan be the football hero and win the game ala Drew Brees or (giggle) Peyton Manning, you’re doomed for failure. Run the SYSTEM.
Whopper Dawg
May 17th, 2010
1:14 pm
He may not be wrong on the Falcons, to be negative, there are a lot of question marks on the team – can Ryan rebound, will the running game rebound, did Turner get worn out in 08 with the high number of carries, will a second receiver step up, will Abraham rebound, can anybody else rush the passer, can any corner cover anybody?
That is a lot of questions. I hope we will get better in 2010 and think the offense will be, with the amount of draft choices dedicated to the D side of the ball, they also should be much improved, but I haven’t seen it yet.
When you think about it, TD hit two home runs in his drafts, Ryan and Lofton. DeCoud has a chance to be a player. All the rest are so so.
Jackson
May 17th, 2010
1:14 pm
I don’t think Peter King is that far off in his assessment. There are a few things to remember when looking at teams and what they are going to be able to do. For instance, if you look at the Colts, you look at offensive passing ability and whether or not Manning has the weapons to distribute the ball to. If you look at the Ravens or Steelers, the power rankings are centered on the defense. If you look at the Falcons, you have to look at the run game which powers everything else. Last year Turner and Norwood were injured and that was the fear for the team coming off Turners heavy workload in 2008. Norwood (and I have loved Norwood since watching him play HS ball in and around Jackson MS) is not durable. Remeber, Snelling was our starter for several games and got a lot of work. Snelling is not your #1 back and when you are a establish the run team like the Falcons, you have to put a question mark on how effective the team will be. Yes Mark, I agree the D has been upgraded. Yes we have added some pieces through the draft. Having said that, until the Falcons can demonstrate a healthy stable of running backs to make the offense work, the team will struggle because we are not built like the Saints, Steelers, or the Chargers.
extremus
May 17th, 2010
1:16 pm
Pre-season rankings by journalists don’t mean that much; just consider where the Falcons were rated this time two years ago before the season began. It’s interesting that King said he felt Matt Ryan didn’t have a “Drew Brees”-type season in him; the likelihood is that neither will Drew Brees himself; everything that could pretty much went right for the Saints last year, and the NFL is a fickle ground for last year’s heroes (as well as anybody who graces the cover of a current Madden game…look into those who have over the past several years and you’ll see why there’s a so-called “curse” associated with doing so). Brees is a great QB with a great bunch of receivers around him, and I think the Saints will be very tough for a good while if they stay healthy, but there are simply too many intangibles to assume one great season translates into more success the next. Just ask Matt Ryan and the Falcons, who were dogged by injuries and a brutal schedule last season. Ryan didn’t have the pass protection Brees did; if I had seven or eight seconds to throw the ball like Brees did against our D-line, heck, I might be able to do fairly decent. And the Falcons did their best to address those issues.
It doesn’t surprise me that the Falcons haven’t gotten much love from the media so far; their top draft pick Weatherspoon was hardly mentioned before the commentators were already talking about the next pick, and by and large the Birds flew well under the radar the entire Draft. No big names, no hoopla that surrounded some of the moves by Carolina and others. But sometimes that’s a good thing; at the time I don’t think there was a circus over Pick #199 in the 1999 Draft. I think the guy’s still playing somewhere up north; his name’s Tom Brady.
So I wouldn’t get too discouraged by even a seasoned journalist’s predictions or pre-season rankings of a league that can change as quickly as the NFL. As a Falcons fan, even as objectively as I can look at it, I think this year’s team can and hopefully will indeed be very special.
Mr. Turnip-Green Jeans
May 17th, 2010
1:16 pm
King slotted the Saints at 24 last year. What more do we need to know about his prognosticating prowess?
SeenThisB4
May 17th, 2010
1:18 pm
The Saints are going to rip the Falcants again this year. Blaming it on injuries, LOL!, as if only the falcants had injuries last year. Uh-huh. Keep thinking that way, especially when you’re eating Saints dust again next year. The Saints will have a better team this year than they had last year, banking on anything else is a discredit to your team. “Oh, we’ll beat the Saints cause they can’t be better than they were last year!” Wow, what a perspective on being competitive. It’s not just the injury list that comes into play. It’s execution. And it’s coaching. Saints have a better coaching staff, up and down the roster. And they have a head coach that isn’t afraid to rip a win out of the jaws of defeat. Can Atlanta say that?
Delbert D.
May 17th, 2010
1:19 pm
“Peter King also blamed the cold winter and record snow on global warming. Nuff Said.”
Mark – See, Shady just took a sarcastic whack at Mr. King without using said sarcasm to refute Mr. King’s statements. That’s not ad hominen.
Well, maybe…we also have to consider the meaning of ‘also.’
Mr. Turnip-Green Jeans
May 17th, 2010
1:20 pm
At least our coaching staff doesn’t catch a buzz (on stolen narcotics) before games…
Bigstack O' Pancakes. It's an Irish name!
May 17th, 2010
1:21 pm
For the record this clown has Green Bay 1st, Miami 6th, and Seattle 11th.