Still another sunny Braves forecast? ‘Bah, humbug,’ I say
I'm sorry to keep using this, but it's my favorite picture ever. (AJC photo by Phil Skinner)
Comes now another in our daily series of the-Braves-look-great articles. This is from Phil Sheridan of the Philadelphia Inquirer, and he sees the Braves as the team that could dislodge the Phillies from the National League East summit. And here I sit, starting to wonder if I underrated these guys and undervalued the offseason work of Frank Wren.
But let me say a couple of things: First, I haven’t been to Lake Buena Vista to see the team firsthand, so I’m having to rely on dispatches; second, I remember the first time I really covered a team up close and personal. It was the 1980 Kentucky Wildcats, and standing at practice every day for a month convinced me a breakthrough football season was at hand.
Impressed by what I’d beheld, I told Russell Rice, the UK publicist, “There’s no way you’ll be as bad as 3-8.” (That being the consensus on how the Big Blue would do.)
Long story short: The 1980 Wildcats wound up 3-8.
I was young and foolish then. I’m much older and still foolish, but one thing I have learned: Practice doesn’t count. Practice games don’t count. Sometimes they’re an indication, but not always. It’s entirely possible the Braves will come north and tear off another 13-0 “Torre! Torre! Torre!” start — that’s a reference to 1982, for you youngsters — but spring success is no guarantee of future results.
Me, I’m still skeptical. I eagerly await the coming of Jason Heyward, but I also wonder if the age on this team — and there’s a ton of it — will show over 162 games. I wonder about the offense. I wonder about the defense. I wonder about the zen of Wren. I’d be more than happy to be proved wrong in my doubting, but as of now I’m still saying what I said back in February.
Third place.
Amid all this sunshine, somebody’s got to be the grouch. Besides, who am I to deprive y’all of the chance to say, not for this first time and surely not for the last, “Hey, Bradley — you were wrong!”
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266 comments Add your comment
Jimmy O
March 30th, 2010
5:20 pm
Johnny Crunch,
I agree with your analysis. But just relax a little bit. This is what’s great about the spring. Everybody
a contender until they actually have to play the real season.
Moonlight Graham
March 30th, 2010
5:22 pm
Bradley your wrong again.
Braves win Wild Card
Great Pitching, Good Fielding, Good Run Producing Offense, and nice Back End of the Bullpen!
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
5:22 pm
Jimmy O…………I’m a die hard Braves fan. I would LOVE to see the Braves make the playoffs this year.
However, I just dont see it happening. Jair Jurrjens has experienced shoulder problems, Tim Hudson has to prove that he can rebound and pitch a full season after elbow surgery, Tommy Hanson has to prove he wont have a “sophomore slump”, Kenshin Kawakami has to show that he has made the adjustments to be a quality starter, and Derek Lowe needs to prove that last year was an aberration.
The back end of our bullpen is old and and injury prone. While I feel that Wagner should be capable for us this year, I’m not sold on Saito. Dude seems to be very hittable to me.
Age and susceptibility to injury in key spots makes any playoff projections very shaky.
Delbert D.
March 30th, 2010
5:22 pm
Isn’t it time for another Marlins miracle year?
bvillebaron
March 30th, 2010
5:22 pm
Johnny Crunch:
You got a point about Cox. On the other hand, he generally does a good job during the regular season and then makes some of the worst strategical decisions I have ever seen in the playoffs. Given the fact that the Braves haven’t been to the playoffs since 2005 and this is Cox’s last year, I would be very happy if they just made the playoffs this year.
thickfreakness
March 30th, 2010
5:26 pm
Johnny Crunch-
I didn’t read much of your post after bringing up something in the papers 15 years ago. I doubt you know what happened anyway. He’s still married to the same woman. I suspect you feel pretty guilty about something you’ve done and are lashing out on a blog. Good luck Dude, counseling is available.
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
5:26 pm
thickfreakness……how many World Series did the Braves win with all the pitching we had during our 14 year division title streak? ONE!!!!!!!!!!!!
Meanwhile the Florida Marlins (who have never won a division title) have won 2 World Series. The Freaking FISH have more World Series titles than we do.
In this day and age of the home run ball, teams that hit the ball win World Championships. Yankees in 2009, Phillies in 2008, Red Sox in 2007, Cardinals in 2006, White Sox in 2005, Red Sox in 2004, Marlins in 2003, Angels in 2002 all had offensive teams that raked at the plate.
How would you compare the 2010 Braves offense to the World Champions of the past 8 years? Is our offense World Series worthy? Be real when you answer that question.
thickfreakness
March 30th, 2010
5:31 pm
Johnny Crunch-
I’m 44, How old are you? Be real when you anwser that question.
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
5:32 pm
bvillebaron…………..How would your rate Bobby Cox’s managing in 2009? I feel that his mismanaging the Braves in 2009 was the reason why the Braves didnt make the playoffs.
In May, when it was apparent that Greg Norton, Jeff Francoeur, Jeff Bennett and Kelly Johnson SUCKED……Cox should have benched or cut them. However he kept Norton all year, waiting until the end of June to bench Kelly, kept playing Francoeur until Frank Wren traded him, and kept using Bennett until Bennett dumb A$$ punched the wall in Boston, resulting in him breaking his hand in July.
Hammer Time
March 30th, 2010
5:33 pm
No…… not enough offense right now…..
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
5:34 pm
thickfreakness…………Bobby Cox is a wife beater. No ifs, ands, or buts around it.
My point was that the Braves suspended the Minor League pitcher for hooking up with a prostitute….yet did NOTHING when Cox punched his wife.
Why wasnt Cox suspended by the Braves or MLB back in 1995?
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
5:35 pm
thickfreakness…………I’m 38
thickfreakness
March 30th, 2010
5:35 pm
Crunch-
Of those teams you listed, only the Yankees, Marlins and Red Sox have more Championships than the Braves in the past 20 years. And only the Yankees have more than 2. So I ask how old are you and what exactly is your point?
thickfreakness
March 30th, 2010
5:36 pm
Crunch-
Cox was not arrested, Heath was arrested.
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
5:38 pm
thickfreakness………You left out the Blue Jays (who won the Series in 1992 and 1993).
My point is that you need a potent offense now days to have a shot at winning the World Series. When I say that, I’m not downplaying the importance of pitching. However, I pointed out the offenses of the past 8 World Series champions. Our offense right now, as it is constructed, PALES IN COMPARISON, to the past 8 World Series winners.
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
5:41 pm
thickfreakness……Bobby Cox was arrested. However the charges were dismissed when he agreed to undergo alcohol and anger management counseling.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobby_Cox
scroll down to the paragraph on his “Personal Life”.
Riveting Stuff
March 30th, 2010
5:44 pm
Please leave the Braves reporting to David O’Brien. Thanks.
thickfreakness
March 30th, 2010
5:45 pm
Crunch-
How do you know that. Of the 8 regulars to start the season last year, only McCann, Jones, Diaz and Escobar remain. You could argue Prado and McLouth, but then you’d have to concede that only the Phillies scored more runs than the Braves in the second half last season. The Braves had the best run differential in the League last year. That’s what wins games.
thickfreakness
March 30th, 2010
5:50 pm
Crunch-
Bobby Cox’s personal life is none of my business. Eddie Mathews almost beat a guy to death in a Cinncinnati bar but that dosen’t mean he couldn’t do his job. Again if you’re remorseful about a personal transgression, get help. Cox’s personal life is of no consequence to the Braves. If you don’t like his managing style, that’s fine, but your argument based on his character is irrelevant.
Mitchell
March 30th, 2010
5:51 pm
Let’s stop beating around the bush. The only thing preventing the Braves from winning the division is Bobby Cox.
What about his age? Have we just decided not to hold #6 accountable for his team’s fate, Brad?
It was his lackluster management that cost us at least a half a dozen games in 2009.
That being said, I believe the Braves will win the NL East this year but they’re going to have to do it in spite of him. Truth hurts.
But really, they’re winning it because… wait for it… they’re better than the Phillies. That’s right. We’re better. I don’t care about Halladay or Palonco. How does that really give them any more of an edge than Lee and Ruiz did? I don’t see it.
The fact is we can and have beaten the Phillies. We won ten of eighteen games last year. We probably should have won about 15
Our concern is beating the scrubs of the National League (Pirates, Reds, Padres, Nats) which we haven’t been able to do in recent years. But this is not a Herculean task. All it comes down to is winning the most games. That’s still how it works, right? The great, grand Phillies have won back to back to back division championships while averaging only 91 wins. You can’t call yourself one of the great teams in the game of baseball when you win 93 games. You can’t tell me the Braves can’t win at least as many games.
Their (the Phillies) bullpen sucks. Ours doesn’t. Neither does our starting pitching.
Roy Halladay established himself as one of the best pitchers in the AL over the last 5 years or so but his team hasn’t even sniffed the playofffs. My guess is when the Blue Jays traveled to New York and to Fenway, and more recently Tampa, the clubhouse talk most likely resembled the following, “we gotta face Halladay in the opener… well, let’s just focus on winning two out of three.” And they do and off they go to winning the division and wild card respectively yet again while Roy goes home early every October.
I’m not convinced Mr. Halladay has what it takes to lead the Phillies, to be counted on to win meaningful games in pressure situations. The Yanks and Red Sox probably just let him have his way with them out of respect. This time it’s different.
Will he win 18-19 games? Sure, why not. Still, I think they’d have been better off with Cliff Lee. And by the way, Hamels, Blanton and Moyer suck. And Happ is overrated.
The Braves are talented enough to win a World Series but in a weird way, I think winning the division might actually mean more. Even if we fall short in the playoffs (wouldn’t be the first, God knows) I think you could consider the season a success with a division championship. I think it also means more to the Braves than to the Phillies. They are preoccupied with redeeming themselves after last year and getting back to the World Series.
We shall see about that.
I’m going to try to be nice to BC this year but I still think his age is as much a concern as any of his players. You’d have to think we can at least win the Wild Card but all I can say is John Schuerholz doesn’t hang Wild Card banners in left field at the Ted. We’re not the Mets.
We’re winning the division. Or not. Who knows.
The end
Blue Fox
March 30th, 2010
5:56 pm
Wren should have kept Vasquez, I’m still worried about the durability & effectiveness of Hudson and Lowe in the starting 5. flc
Tmac
March 30th, 2010
5:58 pm
MB is right.
This team has been overrated by the local fans and media for the last 4 or 5 years.
I don’t see it being any different this year. I think they are better at the start of this year than last year…
but still a team trying for a wild card spot. If things go their way, it can be done. But, Glaus and Heyward are going to have to have good years. And the staff stay healthy…
Bottom Line: There are still a lot of “if’s” on this team to say anything with certainty.
thickfreakness
March 30th, 2010
5:58 pm
Blue-
Vazquez gave up 20 HRs last year, more than any other Braves pitcher. He’ll give up 30 this year.
whensidslid92
March 30th, 2010
5:59 pm
Bradley–
Who are you referencing here: “I also wonder if the age on this team — and there’s a ton of it — will show over 162 games”??? Prado? Escobar? McCann? McLouth? Heyward? Cabrera/Diaz? That’s 2/3 of the starting lineup under 32.
Or maybe you were talking about the pitching staff? Jurrjens? Hanson? Kawakami or Hudson at 34 (Not “ancient for a pitcher)? That’s 4 out of 5
Takes a good mix of veterans/young talent to win. I think you’re stereotyping the braves as the Chipper Jones show. There’s more to this team now, Mark. Frank Wren has built a group around Chipper as the core. Now that’s what I call “Wren Zen”.
thickfreakness
March 30th, 2010
6:03 pm
whensidslid-
All these long time Braves fans who say this team will be lucky to win the Wild Card will be the first to shout about how good this team is after 80 games.
FireMarkBradley!
March 30th, 2010
6:04 pm
why is this guy still writing for the AJC? Bring in Woody Paige!!!
Skid
March 30th, 2010
6:08 pm
Where in the blog has it said the braves would win the world series from a serious poster? Yes the braves have alot of question marks. But I disagree with the assement toward the club on some fronts.
Hudson coming back from TJ: Is their a new process in the TJ surgery now? Has it changed from the past 20 years of doing the surgery that the patient can’t pitch anymore? I could list about 1000 players that have had TJ and came back with poductive years. Why now is Hudson a question mark of heath? Hudson isn’t a power pitcher. He does not rely on the 95+ fastball to get guys out. I see no reasons to question Hudson health.
KK: he had an ERA under 4, pitched 160+ innings, and won 10+ games. HE OUR 5TH STARTER!!!!!!!!!. go look around the majors at 5th starters and we won’t see numbers like that.
JJ: the shoulder is worriesome. We have to hope he can be productive and healthy this year.
Hanson: who give a crap about a 2nd year slump?
Lowe: yes he is our biggest ? In the rotation IMO. He needs to have a solid year for the braves to be a playoff contender.
The O:
I for one am not counting on Heyward to have a Pujols type if rookie year. All he need to do is outproduce the RF of 2009. Something he should do. To me yunel, mccann, and prado are all locks to have good years. Some could better ther norms and other might not but they all should be solid. Chipper and glaus are the keys to the year. They need to be
productive for the braves to have a chance.
The pen: no one in our pen is injury prone. Saito or Wagner have
not missed many year prior to the last 1 or 2. They are old yes but
not injury prone.
And some think the braves are the only team with issues.
The phillies nor their rotation ismreal deep.
Roy
Cole
Joe
happ
5th?
Not as deep as our IMO.
So Long Everybody
March 30th, 2010
6:21 pm
This will be just like your laughable Georgia Tech over Georgia prediction this past November. You are wrong to say the Braves are destined for third place. are you kidding me? We are most definitely better than the nationals, marlins, and mets. My prediction is that we will finish a close 2nd to the Phils and win the wild card. We need people like those that actually pay attention to baseball writing these blogs. Where can I put in my application?
Dylan
March 30th, 2010
6:23 pm
You are ridicolous mark, when the braves finish second you have to eat your words! You are the worst sports writer… You need to go somewhere else, get a life and quit dogging th braves you must be from up north! Shame
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
6:27 pm
thickfreakness…………The best run differential in the second half of 2009 wasnt enough to overcome Bobby Cox’s mismanagement of the team in the 1st half.
Chipper Jones’ health is a BIG issue, along with Troy Glaus’. While Martin Prado was a nice surprise last season, he has to prove that he can produce over a full season. I’m not saying that he cant. I’m saying that it’s far from a given.
Also in question will be Nate McLouth legs staying healthy and him being the consistent table setter that our offense needs at the top of the order.
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
6:28 pm
Riveting Stuff………….dont you mean, “leave the FLUFF reporting” to David O’Brien?
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
6:30 pm
thickfreakness…………I’m not necessarily dogging Bobby Cox for being a wife beater AS MUCH as I’m dogging the Braves suspending the Minor Leaguer for seeing a prostitute WHILE doing nothing when Bobby Cox was arrested for beating his wife.
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
6:35 pm
I’d like to know what David “Fluff” O’Brien had to say about Bobby “Making Ike and O.J. look like Husband of the Year candidates” Cox beating on his wife back in 1995.
Jimmy O
March 30th, 2010
6:36 pm
From a Phillies fan, as I say every year, ANYBODY BUT THE MUTTS !
Good Luck this year.
We shall see...
March 30th, 2010
6:48 pm
We shall see… but in the journalism world this is 3rd place in the division material from Bradley.
Shane
March 30th, 2010
6:49 pm
WHILE doing nothing when Bobby Cox was arrested for beating his wife.
Probably because one guy is a minor leaguer and the other a first ballot HOF manager who turned the braves once the laughingstock of baseball into perennial winners.
Shane
March 30th, 2010
6:51 pm
thickfreakness…………The best run differential in the second half of 2009 wasnt enough to overcome Bobby Cox’s mismanagement of the team in the 1st half.
Are you dumb or just stupid? Bobby will be gone next year. Why don’t you apply? Oh you say you have no experience whatsoever in baseball. Thats a shame. I was sure youd be the next manager.
Shane
March 30th, 2010
6:55 pm
Let’s stop beating around the bush. The only thing preventing the Braves from winning the division is Bobby Cox.
Are you people serious? This is exactly why Braves fans get such a bad rap. Braves fans are without a doubt the dumbest in baseball. The team wins because of Bobby not in spite of him.
The people who know baseball and work in the game know what a great manager he is. Ill take their opinion over joe 6 pack sitting in his recliner.
Lets see Bobby Cox over 40 years in baseball played with Mickey Mantle
You never even got close to professional ball
And who would know the game better? To think you would is the height of arrogance and stupidity.
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
6:56 pm
Shane…………..Wouldnt one “expect” more from Bobby Cox (you know, a very grown man not beating on his wife) than from a minor leaguer (basically still a kid) who decides to see a hooker?
Bobby should have been punished for giving his wife a beating that would have made Ike and O.J. proud.
VinceVanGo
March 30th, 2010
6:58 pm
I don’t know if the Braves can win their division since the Phillies are pretty loaded, but I think that the Braves can take second place and get the Wildcard. I’d be happy with that–look how many Wildcards have gone all the way. If the Braves can hang tough all year and win the Wildcard with momentum I think the fans will be pleased with what they might do in the playoffs with the veterans we have on this team. The 2010 Braves are going into the season with as good of pitching, better starting hitting, and a much better bench than they had at the beginning of last year. Plus they should have a motivated Bobby Cox who probably wants to silence his critics in his last season. N.L. Wildcard looks very possible. World Series I hope. World Champions-I don’t know?????
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
6:58 pm
Shane……..just because I’m not going to be the next manager of the Atlanta Braves, does not mean that I dont have the right to be critical of Bobby Cox.
According to your reasoning in your 6:51pm post, if one doesnt expect to be the next President of the U.S. then they should refrain from criticizing him.
It’s truly American to be critical of our leaders, whether they be political or sports.
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
7:01 pm
Shane………….Some people are very good at networking and kissing the right A$$. Bobby Cox is one of those guys. Dude only wins 1 World Championship with 14 years of World Championship talent….AND………beats on his wife…..AND hasnt been to the playoffs in 4 years…………..yet still has a job managing the Braves.
Joe Torre won 4 World Series in 5 years with similar World Series talent with the Yankees.
Shane
March 30th, 2010
7:03 pm
Shane……..just because I’m not going to be the next manager of the Atlanta Braves, does not mean that I dont have the right to be critical of Bobby Cox.
You can be critical all you want. Just realize you are wrong.
Shane
March 30th, 2010
7:06 pm
beats on his wife
You do realize the charges were dropped. You conveniently left that out.
MitchC
March 30th, 2010
7:08 pm
Mark, I know the Braves have had a good spring, but that spring means nothing. As we know, in the 1980s, the Braves usually had great springs, and lost 90 games each year.
That having been said, I don’t necessarially agree with you about third place. Unless they have major injuries, and really underachieve, the Phillies should run away with the NL East, and win close to 100 games.
The Braves do have, potentially, very strong starting pitching, but their age, especially with Chipper, and the bullpen, is a huge question mark. If Wagner, and/or Saito stays healthy,. and save a bunch of games, that will help.
I’ll go with my original call made after Wren’s deals, and say that this team wins 90 games, or very close to it, finishes in second place, and either gets the wild card, or fights for it until the very last week. If we have major long term injuries to key parts, that obviously wont happen, but, if everyone stays relatively healthy, this is a solid team.
Shane
March 30th, 2010
7:08 pm
We get it. You dont like Bobby Cox. Most Braves fans and every single player who has ever played for him and most everyone in MLB does.
We all get it.
Ricky Boy
March 30th, 2010
7:09 pm
Thanks for the in-depth analysis…
BEEFENSE
March 30th, 2010
7:17 pm
Enter your comments here
BEEFENSE
March 30th, 2010
7:25 pm
Just when I thought you had developed some perception about local sports teams ( GT football, loser PH, etc.) you go and revert to clueless. The Braves will WIN their div. and the WS. As the Pres. of the local National Swamis Society I gazed ito my crystal and saw a WS parade down Peachtree and Bobby holding the trophy—-better get on board this team– pitching carries them ALL THE WAY! Jas. Heyward ROY and T. Hansen Cy young. GO BRAVES!
freshd
March 30th, 2010
7:28 pm
MB It wont be long before you write that the Braves should get rid of BOBBY COX. Oh wait, he”s retiring after the season. I guess you”re still sad KENTUCKY didnt make the FINAL FOUR.