Still another sunny Braves forecast? ‘Bah, humbug,’ I say
I'm sorry to keep using this, but it's my favorite picture ever. (AJC photo by Phil Skinner)
Comes now another in our daily series of the-Braves-look-great articles. This is from Phil Sheridan of the Philadelphia Inquirer, and he sees the Braves as the team that could dislodge the Phillies from the National League East summit. And here I sit, starting to wonder if I underrated these guys and undervalued the offseason work of Frank Wren.
But let me say a couple of things: First, I haven’t been to Lake Buena Vista to see the team firsthand, so I’m having to rely on dispatches; second, I remember the first time I really covered a team up close and personal. It was the 1980 Kentucky Wildcats, and standing at practice every day for a month convinced me a breakthrough football season was at hand.
Impressed by what I’d beheld, I told Russell Rice, the UK publicist, “There’s no way you’ll be as bad as 3-8.” (That being the consensus on how the Big Blue would do.)
Long story short: The 1980 Wildcats wound up 3-8.
I was young and foolish then. I’m much older and still foolish, but one thing I have learned: Practice doesn’t count. Practice games don’t count. Sometimes they’re an indication, but not always. It’s entirely possible the Braves will come north and tear off another 13-0 “Torre! Torre! Torre!” start — that’s a reference to 1982, for you youngsters — but spring success is no guarantee of future results.
Me, I’m still skeptical. I eagerly await the coming of Jason Heyward, but I also wonder if the age on this team — and there’s a ton of it — will show over 162 games. I wonder about the offense. I wonder about the defense. I wonder about the zen of Wren. I’d be more than happy to be proved wrong in my doubting, but as of now I’m still saying what I said back in February.
Third place.
Amid all this sunshine, somebody’s got to be the grouch. Besides, who am I to deprive y’all of the chance to say, not for this first time and surely not for the last, “Hey, Bradley — you were wrong!”
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266 comments Add your comment
Jaker
March 30th, 2010
3:21 pm
Yesterday, you cut and paste someone else’s coulumn, now you tell us that you haven’t seen the Braves play, but I don’t feel like they are going to be good, based on age and not a whole lot else. So, should I use the same criteria as an explaination as to why your writings are lacking. You are old and breaking down, maybe we can trade you for some prospects.
Braves fan since 82
March 30th, 2010
3:21 pm
You all have it wrong….this rag tag, liberal lovin’ paper will support that so called football team in Athens. You forget, if all the pro teams and/or Tech were preping, just won, or headed into its respective championship game it would be upstaged by that idiot school. Braves have enough to get the w/c, I feel.
Dave
March 30th, 2010
3:23 pm
I still can’t believe that baseball season is already here. Just one eons long snore-fest. Guess I’ll be out doing yardwork waiting for the end of August and football season to begin.
Greene Hornet
March 30th, 2010
3:27 pm
Braves fan since 82: You are right that the Bravos can do well this season, but two things: w/c? They aren’t going to the World Cup… maybe w/s for World Series. Second: That so called football team in Athens won last year 30-24. I guess that makes the Jackets an also-ran football team…
heartofdarkness
March 30th, 2010
3:31 pm
Hey Mark, what do you charge for therapy? Will it be covered under ObamaCare?
Sonny Clusters
March 30th, 2010
3:34 pm
Clusters has been playing ball since we was babies and we know more about baseball than most. We know how to hit behind a runner and how to steal a base. When we was playing a lot of ball we was ripped and we was able to do most athletic things without thinking about it. Our teammate, though, was very athletic but did not think very deep thoughts. That’s why he would swing when the pitcher threw down the resin bag. He would then swing at the first pitch he saw and would already have two strikes on him when he looked at the second pitch. That’s why he is a Met and we are on second shift. Blogging is something like that. Some bloggers are pretty smart and some can’t fog a mirror. When we was a journalist a long time ago we was able to write with both hands and still take some photos to run with the story. The paper was wider back then and nobody had to squeeze anything in.
Fillin' up @ Juniors
March 30th, 2010
3:40 pm
That’s it? That was the article. Dont pick the braves because the 1980 wildcats sucked? Weird article.
McCann Fan
March 30th, 2010
3:55 pm
Wrong as usual Bradley! I try to give you the benefit of the doubt simply because I grew up in KY too, but you have this one wrong. Please revisit this article after the season for some self-deprication after the 90+ win season gets us into the playoffs.
ChippersLoveChild
March 30th, 2010
3:55 pm
Wowzers… I love reading your stuff, Mark, but there was nothing of any substance in this post at all. You posted a link to a Phildelphia paper and their predictions and regurgitated a post you made a few days ago… Slow day?
SC Smith
March 30th, 2010
3:58 pm
Hey Bowman, You are right on it, Wren has done a good job with what he was left with by JS, don’t get me wrong he did a great job for years. And I’ll have to back him on the Nate trade, he hasen’t lived up to what we thought, but we really didn’t give up much for him. Also for fifthbusiness, calling someone stupid is pretty stong words, being on line and all. but what ever gets you through your day.
DELAWARES ONLY BRAVES FAN
March 30th, 2010
4:00 pm
AS A BRAVES FAN WHO IS STUCK 30 MILES SOUTH OF THE CLASSLESS PHILADELPHIA FANS I SURE HOPE THAT THIS IS THE SEASON THAT WE TAKE BACK WHAT IS RIGHTFULLY OURS.YOU CANT IMAGINE WHAT IT IS LIKE LISTENING TO ALL OF THEIR NON-STOP GARBAGE.
Mr. Turnip-Green Jeans
March 30th, 2010
4:01 pm
Having picked the Braves to finish first every year since 72′, I find mysef uniquely qualified to do so again.
How can you argue with ME? Anybody ever had a better picking-streak than I had for 14 wondrous years? Yeah, I didn’t think so….
Greg Norton
March 30th, 2010
4:01 pm
Need me to pinch hit?
JEM
March 30th, 2010
4:05 pm
Still hopeing for the best. GO BRAVES!!!
ugaaccountant
March 30th, 2010
4:08 pm
It’s not hard to understand. The Braves looked like a wildcard front runner going into spring training, and nearly everything has looked even better than expected for them during spring training. Therefore for a writer to say the Braves have the most chance of troubling the Phillies is simply logical.
Brave One
March 30th, 2010
4:08 pm
Hey- At least the Stadium Announcer always brings it. Sounds passionate no matter what the score is!
Jimmy O
March 30th, 2010
4:10 pm
Hey Delewares Only Braves Fan,
Why don’t you go jump off the Del. Memorial Bridge!
P.S Only ignorant fools write in ALL CAPITALS !
Blackberry Cobbler
March 30th, 2010
4:15 pm
As usual, Wren and the Braves do pretty much nothing but try to build this team with duct tape and baling wire. For the most part a mix of youthful talent laced with just too many old retreads. The Braves could be quite good if they’re lucky and all the older talent stays healthy and good through the entire season. On the other hand, it could again be proved to be nothing but a collection of junk. I put my money on the later.
Jimmy O
March 30th, 2010
4:15 pm
I ment Delaware !
Matt
March 30th, 2010
4:16 pm
How do you know when Bobby Cox is lying? He’s talking about how good someone is playing despite the fact that they have been in a 6 week slump at the plate or on the mound.
Sorry, I just don’t believe him about anything anymore and that’s why whenever he’s quoted in an article I tend to believe the exact opposite.
scottc
March 30th, 2010
4:17 pm
hey Mark, I’m kinda glad you picked ‘em third. Now they might actually win the pennant!
Seriously, I share some of your concerns. Some. I also wonder about the offense, an annual concern with the Wren brain trust. But hope springs eternal! Go Bravos.
Reality Check
March 30th, 2010
4:21 pm
Thank you Mark! I was afriad you were going to pick them to do well. Unless they have a ton injuries they will be playoff bound and Mark Bradley will once again be wrong about an in state sports team.
retired on the lake
March 30th, 2010
4:21 pm
especially mean here today.
dap01
March 30th, 2010
4:22 pm
The Braves will finish 2nd in the east, and win the wild card.
retired on the lake
March 30th, 2010
4:22 pm
always enjoy the clusters chronicles.
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
4:23 pm
Mr. Bradley……..I totally respect how you presented your argument. I remember back in the 1980’s when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were truly a sorry football organization. They would have a 4-0 preseason and the newspapers would come out and say “this year will be different, we look like a much better team this year in preseason”. However when the regular season came, they SUCKED like before.
I’m not saying that the Braves will suck this year. I’m saying that I agree with you that there are a lot of question marks concerning the Braves this year. Looking good in Spring Training doesnt always translate into a playoff contender in the regular season. The only “givens” on offense is that I expect Brian McCann and Yunel Escobar to put up All-Star numbers.
Many in Bravesland are expecting big years from Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus. However until they prove that they can produce while staying healthy………it’s a big IF.
Jason Heyward is being counted on to have an Albert Pujols type rookie year (161 games, 47 doubles, 37 doubles, 130 RBIs, .329 average, 1.013 OPS) in 2001. However I seriously doubt that he will come close to those numbers. Dude’s a 20 year old rookie with only a handful of at-bats above Double A ball. Sure, both Andruw Jones and Rafael Furcal both make the jump from the low Minors. However they werent counted on to carry the Braves back in those days. Those Braves teams were proven winners who had plenty of offense. This Braves team is no where near the talent of those Braves teams.
McLouth, Prado, Diaz, Cabrera are not “locks” to have a good 2010 season. The fan base are assuming a lot of IFS when they say that the Braves prospects are looking good this year.
Sure the Phillies have their bullpen issues. However that offense is so potent that they can offset any bullpen woes. I’d take that Phillies offense and starting pitching over what we have right now any day of the week.
Mark Bradley has stated the obvious. However many of you are simply too blind to recognize the truth.
Mr. Turnip-Green Jeans
March 30th, 2010
4:26 pm
Spring Training reminds me of a polygraph. It doesn’t tell you anything for sure, but it’s enough to base an opinion on. The opinions of folks who see a continuation of the Braves’ fine ST play carrying-over into the season, are correct, IMHO.
Thirty Points To Your Twenty-Four Points
March 30th, 2010
4:33 pm
I speak for EVERYBODY that reads ajc.com,
we CANNOT WAIT for your yearly review Mark!!!!
Mark Bradley: Genius
March 30th, 2010
4:37 pm
Bradley chooses an entire baseball season (162 games, for those of you who are counting) just like he chooses for march madness: at random. It doesn’t really matter what place he picks us, he’ll still have something to write about regardless if he’s right or wrong. This year he took the bad-cop stance. Journalism rocks!
Ramblin Wrecker
March 30th, 2010
4:43 pm
“Hey, Bradley — you are wrong!”
ugaaccountant
March 30th, 2010
4:44 pm
Johnny Crunch – If half of our players have good years and half have bad years, we’ll still make the playoffs. You can’t just assume every other team has a great year and all of our players fail.
If you played it on paper, today, we make the playoffs. We shall see how it goes, but we’re starting out from a playoff spot.
Matt the Brave
March 30th, 2010
4:48 pm
I’m excited that the Braves seem strong, but there are still SO many question marks. I think someone put it best on the blog here that it always seems that Wren is trying to get a team that ‘if everything goes right’ then we’ll win the World Series. The problem with that is nothing ever goes completely right because it’s the nature of the game. But I do feel better at first with Freeman down at AAA and with the closer position with Kimbrel looking like he’s going to be a stud. This all said, it is only Spring Training, so these games don’t count.
Ray Pugh
March 30th, 2010
4:50 pm
Johnny Crunch,
Bradley is stating the obvious numbnuts, and that’s exactly why it’s a poor assessment. Yes if ALL the vets got hurt we would have a hard time making the playoffs, but if most of them stay on the field and our young nucleus performs as expected, we’re a playoff team. After the all-star break last year, we had the best run differential of any team in the majors. Since then, our pitching is about the same, and our offense has only gotten better.
Oh and btw I can’t wait to ridicule you all when Melky Cabrera has a breakout season….
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
4:51 pm
……………Braves record in Spring Training………..Regular season
2009…………………….21-12……………………………………86-76………
2008…………………….15-15……………………………………72-90………
2007…………………….18-12……………………………………84-78………
2006…………………….11-18……………………………………79-83………
2005…………………….13-15……………………………………90-72……..
2004…………………….13-17……………………………………96-66……..
2003…………………….17-12…………………………………..101-61…….
2002…………………….15-14…………………………………..101-59……
2001…………………….12-13……………………………… ……88-74……
2000…………………….14-17…………………………………….95-67…..
If you compare the Braves Spring Training records with their corresponding Regular Season records………..when the Braves were winning Division titles from 2000-2005, their Spring Training records werent that impressive.
What matters is what happens in the regular season.
joop
March 30th, 2010
4:52 pm
And the Falcons will win one game. We know the drill.
Braves fan since 82
March 30th, 2010
4:53 pm
I love talking down to Georgia people. Greene Hornet: use your brain for something other than a hat rack. w/c is WILDCARD. I do not care that Tech lost. What has that peon school in Athens done since 1980 the country cares about? Until then, shutup
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
4:53 pm
ugaaccountant…………..on paper, the Braves have A LOT to prove.
lefty fielder
March 30th, 2010
4:55 pm
johnny crunch . . . you’re really norman thayer aren’t you.
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
4:59 pm
I have a question for you guys. Which would you consider to be a more “suspendable” offense: Punching your wife in the face OR hooking up with a prostitute?
Reason I asked, I find it interesting that the Braves suspended the Minor League pitcher indefinitely for hooking up with a prostitute……yet did absolutely nothing when Bobby Cox was was arrested for punching his wife and pulling her hair in May of 1995.
Many of you guys talk about how important marriage is. However many of you have conveniently swept under the carpet that Bobby Cox is (was) a wife beater. Dude PUNCHED his wife. The courts ordered him to go to alcohol and anger management counseling. Yet the Braves and MLB did NOTHING. Family values (hypocrisy) in action.
kurula
March 30th, 2010
4:59 pm
mark, i do not mind at all that you are being the grinch who stole the braves optimism. as i recall, every time you have jumped on their bandwagon in the recent past, they have gone in the tank. so pile on and continue your saying of nay.
DirtyDawg
March 30th, 2010
5:01 pm
Face it folks, the last thing the Braves, and we, need is a Bradley, optimistic, kiss-of-death, pick. Let him ramble on for the rest of the season for all I care. We’ll watch and wait…and pull for ‘em to win it all. Especially if we can beat Washington and the Marlins. We can handle the Mets and Philadelphia.
Thought Mark was gonna quote those ESPN geniuses – albeit the second team game callers – it included Bobby Valentine and I forget who else, from last week’s, or weekend, I forget that too. Basically, Valentine’s picking the Mets – guess he’s still hoping to get rehired after they let the guy go that’s got ‘em now – and, of course, everybody else is picking the Phillies. Certainly understandable. But the thing they harped on was Glaus. He made an error on a hard-hit ball during the game with whoever they were playing – Phils, Detroit, somebody – and they went after him with a vengeance. Essentially saying that he would be the weak link – bad defense and slow bat. They also almost came all over themselves about Texiera and the Phillies guy…talking about just how critical and brilliant those two teams were to build around such terrific defensive 1B men and how poor Glaus was by comparison.
Well I’ve got news for them….the Braves have had terrific defensive first basemen these past few years and it ain’t done crap for us…Texiera had a couple of cups of coffee…Kotchman and LaRoach were both damn good but I don’t recall us playing after the regular season was done while any of ‘em were here. So I’ll take a healthy Troy Glaus, and his bat, and see what happens. Fact is there are a more things I wish Glaus had worked on – although who’s to say he hasn’t – footwork around the bag, particularly on throws from the third baseline toward the runner. But anybody that can ‘pick-it’ at third can do it at first…and with that basket for a glove it should be a cinch.
Now if Chipper can stay healthy…and productive…
Glitchy
March 30th, 2010
5:07 pm
Did we fix the problems from last year? Errrrr……..NO.
bvillebaron
March 30th, 2010
5:10 pm
Bradley:
I find it amusing that you write an article predicting the Braves to come in 3rd and state that one of the reasons is that practice games don’t count. On that score, you are correct. But neither do ill-informed offseason opinions of doom and gloom like yours which were made before the team even went to spring training, let alone started the regular season. Your comments now in the face of your admission that you haven’t even seen the team play are even more laughable (how does one cover a team and not even bother to see them play, Mr. Bradley?).
Contrary to your views and those of the numerous critics on these blogs, Wren has done an excellent job these past years in not only making the Braves a competitor last year and this year, but positioning them well for the future particularly given (a) the budgetary constraints imposed upon him and (b) what he inherited after his predecessor traded off a number of quality prospects for “band aids” like Texeira in the ill-fated hope that a few such band aids here and there could keep the 14 year run alive rather than recognize that this team needed to be rebuilt at least several years ago.
Last year, Wren rebuilt the pitching staff and the team competed until the last 10 games of the season with an inconsistent offense. Any knowledgeable baseball person will tell you that the first requirement for a competitive team is a strong rotation and the current one Wren has assembled is still the best in the NL East if not the entire NL (AS I have posted in the past, keeping Hudson, who has been a better pitcher throughout his career than Vazquez, was a no brainer particularly since Hudson signed an extension and Vazquez is a free agent at the end of this year). That rotation figures to be good for some time given that Hanson and Jurrjens are both only 24, Hudson is not ancient at 34 and there are several extemely promising potential young replacements for Lowe, Kawakami and even Hudson in the next few years, including one whom Wren got in the Vazquez trade.
The Braves bullpen is also upgraded in my opinion. I realize that Wagner will be 39 during the season and is coming off TJ surgery and Saito is already 40. However, the guys they replaced, Soriano and Gonzalez, also missed much time during their tenure with the Braves due to injuries to their pitching arms (Gonzo had his own TJ surgery–funny how the critics apparently feel that Gonzo and Moylan can successfully recover from TJ surgery, but Hudson and Wagner cannot)and I don’t think Soriano has throw a pitch this spring). A healthy Wagner and Saito are clearly better than a healthy Gonzalez and Soriano. The middle relievers such as Moylan, Medlen, O’Flaherty, etc. are not only pretty good, but not ancient.
The offense clearly isn’t as good as the Phillies, but whose offense is in the NL? I happen to think that the Braves now have a nice blend of youth and veterans. I realize that Glaus is coming off a major injury, but given that another promising 20 year old prospect, Freeman, figures to replace him next year, he is the classic, low risk/high reward addition this year. Chipper unfortunately has missed too much time during the past few years due to nagging injuries and had a very poor year last year. His coming back to something even approximating what he has done in the past is a key to the offense in my opinion (I concede this is a big question). However, the offense is clearly improved from the beginning of last season now that McLouth, Prado and Heyward will all be starting from day one in order to compete for at least the wild card and perhaps the NL East (although it will be extemely hard to unseat the Phillies this year) even if Glaus and Chipper have subpar seasons, given the strength of the pitching staff. Most importantly, given the Braves budgetary constraints, Wren wisely did not hamstring his ability to add a few key pieces over the next few years when the Braves young nucleus has matured and it would be appropriate to add such pieces (which is the Phillies current blueprint for success which was actually copied from the Braves’ run from 1991 to 2005) by signing any of the overrated and/or overpriced few offensive free agents available this offseason, such as Bay and Holliday.
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
5:11 pm
DirtyDawg……..IF IF IF IF IF. IF “IF” was a “Fifth”, you Deliverance HillyBilly MOFOs would be STONE COLD DRUNK right now.
Mark Texeria took the money and ran. So freaking what? Chipper Jones got hurt and missed most of the second half of 2007 after the Tex trade. Texeria did his job the year he was with us. It wasnt Tex’s fault that the Braves faded from contention in 2007.
I can remember after the Tex trade was made, the blogs were filled with “Oh, Tex is going to sign the blog proverbial favored hometown discount because Tex went to college at Georgia Tech AND he’s always wanted to play for Bobby Cox”. However when Tex decided to do what was best for his family (you know, GET PAID and play for a consistent winner)………many of you got all hurt and wanted to rip Tex.
Well, he played like an All-Star for us for the year he was with us. I have no problem with Tex.
See what Jason Heyward does when he becomes a free agent in 2015. He was born in New Jersey and his family is from New Jersey. He’s a lock to sign with the Yankees AND incur the wrath of emotionally weak minded Braves fan like you.
JohnSmith
March 30th, 2010
5:14 pm
Thank you for selflessly uniting the Braves Nation, Mark. For once, we can all agree that you’re hopelessly wrong on this one.
Jimmy O
March 30th, 2010
5:14 pm
ugaaccountant, what kind of paper do you have the Braves making the playoffs on?
Rolling papers?
Johnny Crunch
March 30th, 2010
5:14 pm
bvillebaron………My problem has never been with Frank Wren. I have given him many props for how he has rebuilt the Braves roster. However, Bobby Cox will find a way to screw it up. He’ll find another Greg Norton, Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francoeur, Jeff Bennett to fall in love with and give playing time to over more productive, worthy players.
thickfreakness
March 30th, 2010
5:17 pm
Mark-
Love ya Dude, but you undervalued the SEC in 1980 the same way you’ve overrated the 2010 NL East. Their isn’t a team in this Division with as much talented pitching as the Braves, in the entire NL for that matter. In the age of Homeruns, pitching still wins.
Ralph "The Roadrunner" Garr
March 30th, 2010
5:20 pm
This team needs speed….Myself, Otis Nixon, Deion Sanders, etc. Helps both offense and defense. Need Schaefer when healthy for speed element. Not enough power to wait for a bunch of 3 run homers. Be nice if we can trade for a LF or CF who has speed and defense. Best we can hope for is a Wild Card.
bvillebaron
March 30th, 2010
5:20 pm
Johnny Crunch:
I don’t have a problem with Texeira being the consummate mercenary and signing with the Yankees, my complaint is that it was stupid for Schuerholz to give up so much promising young talent given the fact that it was clear he would leave after one year and that he couldn’t cure all of the other Braves problems at that time (you are also right, he played well for Atlanta, but he wasn’t and isn’t a franchise player–I honestly don’t recall him ever hitting a walkoff homer with the Braves).
Your comment that Heyward is a “lock” to leave and sign with the Yankees in 2015 is frankly idiotic on 2 fronts. First, the Braves have done an excellent job of keeping the young players who came up through their system long term. Second, is Heyward’s leaving to sign with the Yankees in 2015, as much of a “lock’ as Joe Mauer leaving the Twins and signing with the Yankees after this season was (god I get so tired of the Yankees signing players which they otherwise cannot develop on their own).