Why Jason Heyward might not be here on Opening Day
Regarding prospects, Frank Wren has a saying: “Players will tell us when they’re ready.” Regarding Jason Heyward, Bobby Cox said over the winter: “He might be one who doesn’t have to go through the usual channels.” But even as we on the periphery seek to project the career path of the sport’s latest phenom, we cannot lose sight of one silly but sobering baseball truth:
It makes financial sense for Heyward not to start 2010 on the Opening Day roster.
Rob Neyer of ESPN.com outlines this oddity by referring to a post of Bryan Smith’s on FanGraphs. Smith likens Heyward to Evan Longoria, and it’s an apt comparison: Longoria was the No. 1 prospect of 2008, just as Heyward is the top of the class of 2010. Writes Smith:
Longoria famously waited two weeks for a call-up at the start of the 2008 season, with Joe Maddon slotting Willy Aybar into the third baseman slot until Longoria got the call on April 12. The reason was clear: Longoria would serve only 170 service days with the Rays that season. By Major League rule, a player is a free agent after six full seasons, which are constituted by 172 service days. By waiting two weeks, the Rays bought themselves another year of controlling Longoria.
On the opposite side of the coin is the Detroit Tigers, who were so enthused by Rick Porcello’s Spring Training a year ago that they started the season with the top prospect in their rotation. Porcello would post a 6.42 FIP in April, but was consistent enough to remain with the Tigers all season. As a result, Porcello will be a free agent after the 2014 season. The Texas Rangers, who waited three weeks to call up Derek Holland (for a Longoria-like 170 service days), will have control of Holland through 2015.
There is simply no argument to be made that the marginal value gained by playing Jason Heyward over Matt Diaz for three weeks in April is worth losing Heyward’s rights for the 2016 season. Yes, calling him up on April 25 will mean that Heyward will be a “Super Two”, and thus, eligible for arbitration a year early. But arbitration contracts are still discounts over free agent ones, and I can already promise you that Heyward’s first free agent contract will be a big one. Without delving into the Heyward vs. [Stephen] Strasburg argument, the Braves should certainly take note that Nats GM Mike Rizzo has already written off his right-handed star beginning the season in Washington. If you think it’s because they want some minor league seasoning for him, you’re crazy — they just want an extra year of not dealing with Scott Boras.
About here, I hear you saying: What about ticket sales? Won’t the Braves sell more seats in April if fans know they’ll have to chance to see the team’s biggest prospect since Andruw Jones play at Turner Field? Sure they would. But they wouldn’t sell nearly enough tickets — not in April, when we’re just turning back to baseball and school is in session — to offset the down-the-road benefit of keeping Heyward off the free agent market as long as possible.
(Another consideration: The Braves play only nine of their first 22 regular-season games at home; five of the nine are midweek night games.)
In a perfect world, Jason Heyward would be starting in right field against the Cubs on April 5. He’s really all any Braves fan wants to see. (Apologies to Melky Cabrera.) And Cox keeps saying that if Heyward is among the team’s 25-best players — really, how could he not be? — he’ll be on the 25-man roster when the club breaks camp.
But baseball, as Joe Garagiola noted a while back, is a funny game. Anyone who thinks the Braves — like every club except the Yankees and Red Sox — aren’t looking to save money on player contracts hasn’t been paying attention.
Jason Heyward is really good. But Tommy Hanson was really good a year ago, and he didn’t get the big-league call until June. Yes, Heyward is on an even faster track, but if he manages to outpace the service-time consideration he won’t just be the sport’s No. 1 prospect — he’ll be the world’s fastest human.
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
255 comments Add your comment
hammy
March 6th, 2010
5:00 pm
This is the easiest decision that has even been made. Not having Heyward for a couple of weeks as a rookie in exchange for a full year of Heyward in his prime….
What’s there to even think about? On top of this, the kid could probably use at least a few more weeks of minor league seasoning before making the jump. It is shocking to me that this is even a debate.
hammy
March 6th, 2010
5:08 pm
”
Mark Bradley
March 5th, 2010
11:26 am
Tom, I’m with you on that. The only reason to be really excited about the 2010 club is Jason Heyward.
I don’t envy Frank Wren. This is a tough call.”
that’s one laughable assertion, yet exactly the kind of thing you’d expect to a sportswriter to pen.
Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurjens anybody?
JohnSmith242
March 6th, 2010
7:04 pm
The fact of the matter is, the Braves will need every win they can get if they want to make it to the postseason. Those two weeks without Heyward could be costly in the worst way…
Why not let the kid play, then offer him a solid contract well before arbitration if he does well, ala Brian McCann?
hawesg
March 6th, 2010
7:39 pm
Bradley: Consistently wrong…
BravesFanForever
March 7th, 2010
5:52 am
Braves management has lied so many times–or at least stretched the truth so many times–that they will say, “Oh, what is two weeks, that’s essentially opening day isn’t it?’
Think about what they have said many times in the past about increasing the budget, bringing in that “big hitter”, etc. that I just don’t believe them. Frank Wren has done a pretty good job so far but I don’t appreciate the spin to keep the fan interest up. It’s really annoying.
So I wouldn’t be surprised if Heyward is at Gwinnett for two weeks–if that’s all it takes to keep him for another year–even if he hits .400+, slugs .600+, and impresses the entire world! It’s all about the money people… Follow the money…
Cunning Stunt
March 7th, 2010
7:47 am
That level of dishonesty and spin makes them like virtually every other big corporation on planet earth. PR people, and spin have been the complete death of honesty.
Lew
March 7th, 2010
9:03 am
Enter your comments here
jc_dawgs
March 7th, 2010
10:49 am
Braves need to stick to what Cox has said….”If he’s among the best 25 players on the team”.
Wren should make the effort to not make Cox look like an idiot…especially in his last year.
He’s hitting .400 right now. Still several weeks before they have to make a decision. For me…I say you need to start him on Apr 5th if his avg stays above .325
There is too much hype going on. The fans….who generally are not in tune with the ins and outs of arbitration and such…want to see the potential phenom on opening day. They will be disappointed if he’s not there.
Wren needs to remember that your Atlanta Brave fans are what really needs to matter. They are the ones buying those tickets.
Boog Alou
March 7th, 2010
10:53 am
Only problem with keeping Heyward away for a couple of weeks, is that our HOF’r Chipper Jones should be out of the lineup with injuries after 2 weeks, and he & Heyward won’t get to play together very much.
MJ
March 7th, 2010
11:30 am
What the fans want to see, and what is best for the team, is not important to the Braves GM. Heyward will not be in the starting line-up on Opening Day for financial reasons. The opportunity to hold on to him one more year will be too great to ignore. The Braves already know they will not keep him as soon as he can become a free agent. The kid is another Ryan Howard, but the Braves will never open up their pocketbook to keep him on the team. I’m going to enjoy every minute of his time in Atlanta, because there is no way he’ll finish his career here. Chipper will be the last player in franchise history to stay with the team for his entire career. The Braves brass don’t have the courage to step up and sign and maintain the best players in order to win a World Series. They just want to put a team on the field that can draw 25 – 30,000 fans on average to games so they can break even financially and call it a day. The moves they make every year are never designed to bring Atlanta a World Series title. Some of the past players they gave away and got nothing in return for: Furcal, Betemit, Renteria, Sheffield, Jermaine Dye, Frenchy, Elvis Androus, Salty, Texiera, etc, etc, etc. With Furcal, Dye, Tex, and Frenchy in the line-up they would be compete with any team offensively in the NL or AL.
Steve
March 7th, 2010
11:56 am
Great article Mark. I thoguht the super two stuff was nonsense given the financial impact the ticket sale increase would make, but I had not thought about this little tidbit.
The Braves should definitely wait until two weeks are over to call him up. The only real drawbacks I see would be:
1) Facing pitchers in AAA who are tehre for a reason generally. They are working on new pitches, control, mechanics or whatever. This can actually impact a hitters swing, as they are frequently chasin bad pitches or having their timing thrown off. Since it’s not much different than what he sees in spring, it hopefully won’t impact him that much.
2) Would this cause any animosity with Heyward when he eventually does become a FA? If this kid is as good as he looks so far, I think every Braves fan is pulling for him to be a Braves lifer like Chipper. This franchise needs players like that, as they draw in the fans more than one year rentals. I sure hope forcing control over him for an extra year (taking money away from him) doesn’t impact oru ability to sign him down the road. It’s not like the Braves are none for rewarding guys a year early with lucrative deals (small deals maybe, but nothing like they would get on the FA market).
Either way, it’s probably worth it to keep him down 2 weeks. Thanks for pointing this one out Mark. I can now tell my entire fantasy league not to draft him because of this and the possible super-two issue. Maybe they will listen and let me sneak in and grab him (I draft Braves heavy and don’t care if I lose).
illtbagya
March 7th, 2010
12:47 pm
Heyward?? fmart and ike davis are making him look bad
i thought this kid heyward was supposed to be willie mays incarnate……meh….i havent been all that impressed yet. now the mets two rookies….THEY are tearing shiite up.
keef
March 7th, 2010
2:58 pm
If Liberty Media is still the owner in 2016 and not a local Georgian Steinbrennerish owner, it won’t really matter when Heywood comes up now, will it?…
Jeff
March 7th, 2010
5:58 pm
Can’t say I agree with you Mark. Don’t think Bobby and Frank Wren would be talking him up so much this spring training if they didn’t fully anticipate J-Hey would make the team. The Hanson situation was a lot different in that we had a full rotation. The fact that this is Bobby’s last year there’s no way they’re going keep him in the minors for 10 days when the fact is his presence in lineup for those 10 days could be the difference in making the playoffs.
Kenny J
March 7th, 2010
11:01 pm
Good comments, Bill_in_Atl Re Heyward discussion — one of the main reasons we’d need him in the majors is to give us a HR bat. It’s way early, but in five spring games the story line seems to be his on-base percentage which isn’t the run producer we’re starving for. I have no doubt he’s the real deal and can’t wait for that kind of star to play at Turner Field. But money aside I’d rather J-Hey get the HR stroke down in AAA for awhile, and let proven ML’ers like McLouth, Melky and Diaz carry us in the interim. Now if Heyward starts boppin’ ‘em out in Grapefruit League the next three weeks the whole story changes. That would be sweet. Even then, I’d trade a couple of weeks for a whole year later on.
Mark Bradley's Fan Club
March 7th, 2010
11:23 pm
Good points all around, Mr. Bradly, but consider that arbitration awards have deviated from the traditional rubber-stamped low-ball club offer– they’ve become true hearings about value. Ryan Howard’s case set that up and it was continued this year with some biggies (Lincecum). So, I’m not so sure that there’s quite the discount that there once was, and if this trend holds, then there will be even less of a discount. What would seem to be an automatic decision now is unclear in my opinion.
Coach (2011 or Bust)
March 8th, 2010
2:25 am
YO MARK BRADLEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I hope you actually read this because it’s a developing story that no one has bothered to think about as of yet……
Who’s gonna replace Diory Hernandez on the depth charts? It’s an important question because if one actually looks at the season long progression, the Braves almost always end up utilizing at least three different short stops for various reasons.
Look at 2009, Escobar, Infante(he got hurt) and Hernandez.
2008 saw three short stops in Escobar, Infante and Lillibridge. Ditto for 2007 with Renteria, Escobar and Woodward. I had to go all the back to 2005 where Furcal and Betemit saw almost all the playing time at SS (Pete Orr played one inning at the position).
My point is that Brandon Hicks is the next best option and he’s not on the 40 man, nor has he played above double A as of yet.
It would seem that the Braves have some roster decisions ahead of them. Diory Hernandez will go on the 60 day DL while Jason Heyward will obviously be addd to the 40 and 25 man rosters. But the Braves will still need to add another SS eventually and drop another player from the 40 man.
Bradley, do you think the Braves might trade for a player, add Hicks or simply wait to see what pops up when teams start cutting players toward the end of spring training?
Thanks.
Coach (2011 or Bust)
March 8th, 2010
2:38 am
P.S.
I checked all the way back to 1990 and 2005 was the exception for at least three short stops. Our Braves will see somebody not named Escobar or Infante playing SS in 2010 and he is as of yet…..unnamed.
Paddy O
March 8th, 2010
10:30 am
this is a sharp article. It provides insight to a process, with details many of us I am sure would not have factored into our decision process. If it gives you an extra year, I would probably wait to call Heyward up. He should be much better at 26 vs. starting out, and that extra year is a great benefit.
Don
March 8th, 2010
10:56 am
It depends on Heywards maturity as to whether he needs to be called up at all for the 2010 season. If the has the rare, rare maturity of understnding on his own that he needs to work the count, be slective, make the pitcher throw some pitches, and concentrate on making solid contact rather than being concerned about the HR; then bringing him up will be fine. But odds are that he needs a manager who teaches, emphasizes, demands this of young hitters. If this be the case, then keep him completely away from Bobby Cox this year. Keep him at AAA until next season. Remember that our two hitters that developed best as young hitters, had their dads giviing them advice and guiding them rather than Cox and Pendleton.
paw paw
March 8th, 2010
2:49 pm
WE NEED OWNERS THAT WILL STAND UP IF THEY WANT TO PLAY BALL WITH THE BIG BOYS. WHERE IS TED WHEN WE NEED HIM. THE BRAVES OWNERS ARE NOT WHAT WE NEED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tea
March 10th, 2010
7:13 am
I am so sick on money controling everything.
brieatz
March 10th, 2010
7:51 am
If we know his first free agent cotract is going to be big (which we do) why not sign him right now to a 6 year deal like Longoria did? If they can’t write the check to compete then get out of basebal Liberty Media!
Kane337
March 10th, 2010
5:06 pm
Send him to the minors for 2 weeks so we have him for another full year. Have patience people.
GTFan1
March 11th, 2010
6:39 am
http://thesportsdebates.com/2010/03/10/the-tony-larussa-bobby-cox-and-joe-torre-debate-%E2%80%93-cox-is-simply-the-best/
lin
March 11th, 2010
10:11 am
i think has bad as they want him for open day be best to wait till 2nd half season give him more a chance to hit etc with less stress. cause it will eventually catch up to him in big leagues. look like time will tell for sure
Wreckmaniac
March 12th, 2010
10:46 pm
Why go ga-ga over this kid ? Didn’t we learn anything from the Francoeur
experience ? He probably should spend the entire year in AAA. Maybe have a couple of 5 to 10 game stints in Atlanta and just leave it at that. All this tells me is that there is no one else to talk about which is not good. Of far bigger importance is keeping McCann healthy.
Wreckmaniac
March 12th, 2010
10:47 pm
Lets hear about the pitching and who will replace Wagner when he goes down
The Atlanta Braves: 2010 Preview « Atlanta Braves – Elite Fantasy Players
March 15th, 2010
1:27 am
[...] The hottest prospect in all of baseball will make his Major League debut in 2010 after storming through the minor leagues with 46 extra base hits in 351 AB. He played only three games of AAA ball in 2009, but all signs point to Heyward starting for the Braves in RF this season. So far this spring Heyward is 8 for 18 with 5 extra base hits and two steals. His mix of power and speed might even garner him the leadoff spot in 2010. Mark Bradley with the Atlanta Journal Constitution speculated in a recent article that Heyward might not be on the opening day roster because of financial reasons: http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2010/03/05/why-jason-heyward-might-not-be-here-on-opening-day... [...]
Matt
March 15th, 2010
2:39 am
Frank Wren must be wincing with every double Heyward hits this Spring.
Pel
March 15th, 2010
11:14 am
Bring him up when the Braves have a long home stand.
Mike Klein
March 16th, 2010
3:20 pm
This is all very intriguing. So what’s the decision if Heyward starts in Gwinnett where he hits .214 with one home run, two doubles, a ton of ground balls and strikeouts? Do they call him up with “He’s ready and so are we!” Let’s not set the team and then spend the next month or two setting the team again. Make a decision that the kid is ready or he’s not ready and stop worrying about six years from now. We’ve been waiting a lot of years for a good team. If’ this kid is good enough, just do it. The extra time Jeff Francoeur got in the minors meant nothing overall to his Braves career.
Jared
March 16th, 2010
5:20 pm
do the 172 days have to consecutive and do they start running (and keep running) from opening day? What Im asking is could heyward make the team out of camp and then be sent down later (if need be or if, God forbid, we were out of the race) in order to get his major league days below 172? Space it out during the year by sending him down for 5 days, a week, here and there. Just a thought.
Jared
March 16th, 2010
5:24 pm
2 other things:
1) Liberty Media (hopefully) won’t be the ones writing checks by the time Heyward is due a raise. I think theyre gonna sell asap.
2) A championship club shouldnt be worrying about petty money issues like this. The Braves used to be above that. If the kid is ready, get him on the field. When its his time, if he’s really that good, then pay what it takes to keep him.
Bizzle
March 16th, 2010
7:11 pm
Not a tough call. By the time we need to afford his bat, Lowe and his ungodly salary will be long gone and two more of our young guns will be in the rotation at a super-bargain. Also, if the Braves let this player slip through their fingers because of money….
atl cracker
March 19th, 2010
6:20 am
did this column change today from what it was yesterday? or the day before? or the day before the day before? why not?
J-HEY KID
March 19th, 2010
11:53 am
Maek Bradley you are an idiot,have you not seen Heyward play during the spring he will be a superstar from day one.Go Braves Good Luck Bobby !!
bruce
March 19th, 2010
5:58 pm
Mark,
What say you now… time for a new story on the braves to get this one off the home page, kinda embarrassingly outdated, unless of course you still think your suppositions are still valid. Throw us a bone. Thanks, Bruce
truth hurts
March 20th, 2010
9:16 am
Good call dumbass.
Phil
March 22nd, 2010
12:09 am
Ouch, that hurt
Braves Fan in N Fla
March 22nd, 2010
9:37 am
Big difference in Longoria signing a long term deal is Longoria has Paul Cohen as an agent..Heyward signed with the devil of all sports in Boras, who I seriously doubt will do any favors for the Braves
Moonlight Graham
March 22nd, 2010
6:45 pm
Makes sense, but after the 9 games at Gwinnett, he should be up helping the A Braves.
Braves fan since '66
March 22nd, 2010
7:13 pm
I say start him on April 5th. I may not make it to 2016.
George
March 22nd, 2010
7:47 pm
This story or speculation is two weeks old. Isn’t it about time to take it down? The previous post was March 5th, I rest my case.
Everything Jason Heyward
March 23rd, 2010
9:33 pm
[...] Why Jason Heyward might not be here on Opening Day: http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2010/03/05/why-jason-heyward-might-not-be-here-on-opening-day… [...]
J-Hey Kid Must Play
March 23rd, 2010
10:34 pm
Jason Heyward is here and ready. He is the hometown guy, and regardless of financial issues….Heyward will be a Brave unless we trade him as we did Frenchy.
Heyward won’t learn unless given the oppurtunity. I’d rather him get the kinks out in April and May than in June and July.
Join the Facebook group: The J-Hey Kid
Donnie
March 24th, 2010
4:12 pm
Good Post. Very enlightening!
Scott
March 24th, 2010
4:54 pm
Just start Heyward and sign him to an extension early. They could buy out his arbitration years and service time becomes more of a moot point.
Sports news » Blog Archive » 5U: In which Ichiro makes a ridiculous catch
March 24th, 2010
5:18 pm
[...] • More Heyward coverage: Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution explains why the top hitting prospect in baseball – a guy who’s batting .364/.523/.576 this spring – should begin the year in the minors. [...]
Notso Fast
March 25th, 2010
9:45 pm
Tough call but he does seen to be having some trouble with left handers on high and tight. Can’t hurt to have the extra year for a couple of weeks.