Why Jason Heyward might not be here on Opening Day
Regarding prospects, Frank Wren has a saying: “Players will tell us when they’re ready.” Regarding Jason Heyward, Bobby Cox said over the winter: “He might be one who doesn’t have to go through the usual channels.” But even as we on the periphery seek to project the career path of the sport’s latest phenom, we cannot lose sight of one silly but sobering baseball truth:
It makes financial sense for Heyward not to start 2010 on the Opening Day roster.
Rob Neyer of ESPN.com outlines this oddity by referring to a post of Bryan Smith’s on FanGraphs. Smith likens Heyward to Evan Longoria, and it’s an apt comparison: Longoria was the No. 1 prospect of 2008, just as Heyward is the top of the class of 2010. Writes Smith:
Longoria famously waited two weeks for a call-up at the start of the 2008 season, with Joe Maddon slotting Willy Aybar into the third baseman slot until Longoria got the call on April 12. The reason was clear: Longoria would serve only 170 service days with the Rays that season. By Major League rule, a player is a free agent after six full seasons, which are constituted by 172 service days. By waiting two weeks, the Rays bought themselves another year of controlling Longoria.
On the opposite side of the coin is the Detroit Tigers, who were so enthused by Rick Porcello’s Spring Training a year ago that they started the season with the top prospect in their rotation. Porcello would post a 6.42 FIP in April, but was consistent enough to remain with the Tigers all season. As a result, Porcello will be a free agent after the 2014 season. The Texas Rangers, who waited three weeks to call up Derek Holland (for a Longoria-like 170 service days), will have control of Holland through 2015.
There is simply no argument to be made that the marginal value gained by playing Jason Heyward over Matt Diaz for three weeks in April is worth losing Heyward’s rights for the 2016 season. Yes, calling him up on April 25 will mean that Heyward will be a “Super Two”, and thus, eligible for arbitration a year early. But arbitration contracts are still discounts over free agent ones, and I can already promise you that Heyward’s first free agent contract will be a big one. Without delving into the Heyward vs. [Stephen] Strasburg argument, the Braves should certainly take note that Nats GM Mike Rizzo has already written off his right-handed star beginning the season in Washington. If you think it’s because they want some minor league seasoning for him, you’re crazy — they just want an extra year of not dealing with Scott Boras.
About here, I hear you saying: What about ticket sales? Won’t the Braves sell more seats in April if fans know they’ll have to chance to see the team’s biggest prospect since Andruw Jones play at Turner Field? Sure they would. But they wouldn’t sell nearly enough tickets — not in April, when we’re just turning back to baseball and school is in session — to offset the down-the-road benefit of keeping Heyward off the free agent market as long as possible.
(Another consideration: The Braves play only nine of their first 22 regular-season games at home; five of the nine are midweek night games.)
In a perfect world, Jason Heyward would be starting in right field against the Cubs on April 5. He’s really all any Braves fan wants to see. (Apologies to Melky Cabrera.) And Cox keeps saying that if Heyward is among the team’s 25-best players — really, how could he not be? — he’ll be on the 25-man roster when the club breaks camp.
But baseball, as Joe Garagiola noted a while back, is a funny game. Anyone who thinks the Braves — like every club except the Yankees and Red Sox — aren’t looking to save money on player contracts hasn’t been paying attention.
Jason Heyward is really good. But Tommy Hanson was really good a year ago, and he didn’t get the big-league call until June. Yes, Heyward is on an even faster track, but if he manages to outpace the service-time consideration he won’t just be the sport’s No. 1 prospect — he’ll be the world’s fastest human.
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255 comments Add your comment
Delbert D.
March 5th, 2010
3:58 pm
It’s treachery like this by organizations that affects players’ loyalty to teams.
bfred
March 5th, 2010
4:12 pm
I’m going with my brain over my heart on this one. See you mid-April, Jason.
brent a.
March 5th, 2010
4:14 pm
The way many suburbanite Atlanta sports fans act, they would atually prefer to see Heyward at AAA in April, instead of down in the big city.
brent a.
March 5th, 2010
4:19 pm
Folks, please understand . . . this isn’t just about money, it’s about player control.
1 more year of Heyward, by keeping in in the suburbs for a few weeks in April.
Once he’s a free agent, he could set sail for New York.
Making a few extra dollars at the gates in April – and even a lot in October – won’t mean that much if he flies the coup to New York on a 10-year, $300 million contract one year before he would’ve become a free agent, had we simply let him start the season in Gwinnet County.
Joshhh...
March 5th, 2010
4:20 pm
Mark Bradley — always the downer.
Space Monkey
March 5th, 2010
4:22 pm
If he wants people to be excited about the team, Wren will break camp with Heyward. One big difference between the Braves and the Rays: The Rays had no chance of contending with or without Longoria. Every game counts for the Braves.
oldfart
March 5th, 2010
4:29 pm
Make it Bobby’s decision based purely on baseball ability and do right by the kid. He and his agent might remember it later. They did right by Chipper and he really never went shopping, do the same here. Too many things can happen in five years including (finger’s crossed) Liberty Media being out of the picture.
Alan
March 5th, 2010
4:29 pm
props for managing to not contradict yourself with some stupid statement about how the Braves are too cheap to start the year with him (although I’m not convinced you weren’t thinking that)
WonderDawg
March 5th, 2010
4:39 pm
The same “fans” screaming that Hayward won’t be with the Braves the first three weeks will be the first “fans” screaming for Wren to “send him down” if he starts out struggling because of the pressure.
chuck....the real chuck
March 5th, 2010
4:50 pm
So you guys want to look cheap on the front end, when it’ll only serve as a reminder when it’s time to get him to ink a long-term deal in 2-3 years?
Not sure who his agent is now, but I bet it’s Boras by then….who will only convince him to test the waters if the offer isn’t rich enough….and we won’t be able to retort that we ignored the super 2 worries and let him keep the job he will undoubtedly have earned.
This guy isn’t going anywhere if we play it smart. And being cheap resonates with players and other FAs…or don’t you read about NFL players being irritated at Max tender offers…
Play him if he earns it, pay him early and lock him up long-term…not a tough decision at all Mark…
chuck....the real chuck
March 5th, 2010
4:53 pm
Not to mention 3-5 extra home games could mean another $500,000K in gate receipts because people will finally come out to the ballpark….ATL sucks for attendance, I live in DC and attend more home games than at least half the people on here…
Don’t you think having him in the lineup for the opening series or two is gonna be worth some trade deadline cash?
Let’s open our eyes and realize that this kid has box office potential, and Grim Reaper Extraordinaire Terry McGuirk should be the first to recognize that…
Mr. Turnip-Green Jeans
March 5th, 2010
4:53 pm
There’ll eventually be a lawsuit over this very subject.
The practice will end at that point, probably with a team having to prove that a player was sent down, and brought back, for some legitimate baseball (non-economic) reason.
Mr. Turnip-Green Jeans
March 5th, 2010
5:00 pm
The chances of Liberty Media owning this team in five-years, are about the same as Gary Coleman being at the helm…
DELAWARES ONLY BRAVES FAN
March 5th, 2010
5:16 pm
GREAT ARTICLE.POINTS OUT EVERYTHING THAT THE REAL WORLD OF TODAYS BASEBALL IS ALL ABOUT.20 YEARS AGO THE SAME THING WAS HAPENING BUT NOBODY TALKED OR WORTE ABOUT IT.
Colbrave
March 5th, 2010
5:21 pm
CAll him up 2 weeks into the seaso and get 1 more year of control. Give the team 1 more year of JHey, sounds the right thing for GM to do.
King Herod
March 5th, 2010
5:36 pm
I love everything I have heard or seen about Jason Heyward. But I subscribe to the notion he should not start on Day One in April. As a fan, I would prefer to see Jason spend time in Triple A and come up if he appears to be on a roll and demonstrates his readiness for the Big Time. If Jason starts coming out of spring training, he starts carrying a 1000-pound gorilla on his back, and that is a burden nobody should carry, not if we like him. I like Jason. I want him to have every advantage coming into the majors. He needs time in Triple A. I can wait.
wally butts
March 5th, 2010
6:07 pm
People who wait around to be first in a comment to a blog, have no real value to society, as they are obviously, very unproductive people.
fan of baseball
March 5th, 2010
7:05 pm
stats are a large part of baseball even when you talking about salaries and hire dates and or player control….he hasnt played many games at the major league level he can wait and so can we……great article mark…nothing better then talking baseball past or future…
rmf
March 5th, 2010
7:29 pm
I had assumed all along that the Braves would leave Heyward at AAA until the Super 2 Deadline passed just like Hanson. It makes sense, on a long term basis, for a lot of reasons — just ask the SF Giants.
The problem the Braves have now is they have done nothing to temper expectations. In fact, they have done the opposite. I see another pr disaster coming if they send him down to start the season even if it is the correct decision from a long term perspective.
If he keeps performing they may have no choice but to start him in the majors in April based on the public statements they are making.
WJ
March 5th, 2010
9:36 pm
Last again! I’ve got more lasts than most have firsts.
Jason Heyward
March 5th, 2010
9:40 pm
I’m starting opening day.
Gary
March 5th, 2010
9:49 pm
I want to keep him here as long as possible so I agree. Plus it will do him some good to let him play a few weeks in aaa.
Gary
March 5th, 2010
9:50 pm
Just realized…hello. The aaa team is in Atlanta. So if fans here want to see him, they just drive to L’ville.
P. Bull Terrier
March 5th, 2010
10:34 pm
It seems strange to me that the Braves seem like they would even consider bringing Heyward up on opening day. First and foremost, MLB is a business, not little league. It’s not about putting the best 9 on the field. It’s about managing a budget and generating a profit, or at least keeping losses at a managable level for tax purposes. The ONLY reason the Braves business cares that this is Bobby Cox’s last season is because it is good for the marketing dept. There’s no way they will base long term payroll decisions on Bobby Cox’s retirement.
The expectations for Heyward this season are already completely unrealistic. He may project to be a super star, but you can’t expect him to be Fred McGriff/Darryl Strawberry from day 1. Realistically, if his stats this season are similar to what you would expect from Matt Diaz, it will be a very good season for a 20 year old rookie.
Joey P
March 5th, 2010
11:07 pm
if you want fans to come to the games Heyward has to be in RF
Joey P
March 5th, 2010
11:08 pm
If you want fans to come to the games then Heyward should be the RF on opening day plain and simple.
Joey P
March 5th, 2010
11:35 pm
you know its funny. Ya’ll were complaining when Wren traded Vazquez for Melky. Now Melky is the best outfielder in the field. Give me a break. Melky is good and maybe being in the National League will make him better. But watching Jason play RF.Watching him bat he is ready. You didn’t complain when they brought Andruw Jones up from the AA team. It needs to be Diaz/Melky,Nate, and Jason in the outfield.
edward
March 5th, 2010
11:45 pm
If he only misses 10 games then what is the problem? It’s not likely we will go 0-10 to start the year so it doesn’t hurt at all. Let him know why he is going to the minors for 3 weeks and that he has a spot waiting at then end of those weeks. The odd man out is Cabrera and he only became that when Heyward became the latest phenom. It’s a horrible call but one that I am grudgingly with Wren on this time. Lose 3 weeks at 20 or lose him to F.A. when he is 26? I’ll lose the 3 weeks everytime. His first contract if he turns into the star we all are predicting then he’ll be commanding 15-20million on that first contract. Maybe more.
UKUGA/brent a.
March 5th, 2010
11:50 pm
“One big difference between the Braves and the Rays: The Rays had no chance of contending with or without Longoria.”
Yeah, those 2008 Rays were terrible!
FJR
March 6th, 2010
12:11 am
man RamblinWrecker, as a fellow Tech guy, you seem to have issues with the maths.
Cold Hard Fact: If heyward’s agent knows that his sixth year would be a free agency year if he didn’t sign a long term contract, he is going to ask a higher price for that year than if it would just be an arbitration year. So your argument that great players sign contracts that cover arbitration years and early years of free agency, and thus this whole thing is moot has no merit. It totally determines the bargaining power of the two sides when it comes to nailing down dollar amounts. A player who will be a free agent in 6 years can demand a LOT more money than a player who is just going to be an arb eligible player in 6 years. It’s likely going to be at least a 5 million dollar difference if Heyward is an impact player.
Cold Hard Fact: a 20 year old isn’t going to make a GIGANTIC difference in 9 games.
Cold Hard Fact: $5mill could make a gigantic difference in 2016, when I still plan on being a Braves fan.
In fact, the only argument Wren can responsibly make FOR putting J-Hey on the roster on opening day is that he feels like he’s going to be fired before 2016, and thus won’t have to deal with the consequences. Either that, or Bobby is using whatever organizational strong arm power he has to FORCE Wren to bring him up.
Mekons
March 6th, 2010
12:11 am
If it’s three weeks, we should do it. Jason isn’t stupid.The Braves put millions of dollars in his pocket. The Rays took away a year of Longoria’s contract, then gave him a very generous contract. We should do the same unless we can do it before the season starts. We can play Melky or Matt in RF for a couple of weeks. If I was Jason, I’d sign a McCann contract with a few more bucks.
It seems to me that while he wants to get paid, and who doesn’t, he isn’t primarily driven by money. He’s smarter than most of us anyway. When you can make $100 million in your life, or more, who cares about $2 million? I think he wants to stay a Brave and will be like Chipper; paid a bit less than he is worth, but happy. McCann is in the same league there. And Huddy.
Escobar and Hanson and others will get their money. I’d take short money if it was guaranteed. You break your leg or tear your shoulder and there’s no more money.
N8
March 6th, 2010
2:40 am
I’ll say this much. You have a point Mark, and with the longterm future in mind, it’s a strong point. But if the Braves (Wren) was worried about long term team success, Wagner wouldn’t have been signed, Lowe would have been dumped to the first team willing to remotely take on that contract and Hudson surely wouldn’t have been resigned to a 3 year extension, along with the thought that perhaps Chipper might have been asked if he was willing to accept a trade.
Wren and the Braves are trying to win NOW (in Bobby’s last year – you know? Because the the last 20 years haven’t meant much, but NOW it does.)
If Wren is serious about the Braves winning in 2010, Heyward will be on the opening day roster. If he’s not interested in winning in 2010 and only has 2016 in mind. Then yeah…. Heyward will start the year at AAA.
Conyers Braves FanYellow Jacket
March 6th, 2010
4:32 am
Enter your comments here
Conyers Braves Fan
March 6th, 2010
4:36 am
Mark: Good assessment….Braves should let JH start in AAA. Anyway, its too early to tell if he is ready to start in ML since there have been only 4 games. Too much hype on JH ….everyone
needs to back off and just watch what happens the rest of spring training.
chuck....the real chuck
March 6th, 2010
5:13 am
Did any of you go to Myrtle games? Jackson games? The kid is ready now…
He will be here for 15 years, and therefore we will sign him to a deal before he can get to ARB anyway….if we bring him opening day and bestow that honor on him, not only do we reap the reward of extra gate receipts, but we reap the goodwill of him remembering we didn’t go the cheap route when it’s time for his extension…
Go cheap now, pay later….Hanson was a question of innings and seasoning…this is not.
Rocky Chop
March 6th, 2010
7:51 am
Jeff Hullinger is reporting Braves interested in re-signing Frenchy, can anyone confirm?
38YearBravesFan
March 6th, 2010
8:28 am
Having heard the logic, my bet is AAA for him for 4-6 weeks. Makes too much sense from the money side.
GO BRAVES!!
DoninGa
March 6th, 2010
8:30 am
Boy, am I an old timer. (came up in the late 40’s) Back then none of this mattered. If the boy was good enough he came North with the team. Sometimes I think we are all way to … what’s the word, scientific? Hey, stop all the analyzing, and let the best players play ball! The second guessing that goes on is enough to make me puke!
bob
March 6th, 2010
10:24 am
It is a business first, and 10 days will not make difference.
Besides Gwinnett fans could get a chance to say ” I saw him when….”
bob
March 6th, 2010
10:27 am
If the Braves made the playoffs, does that count as service days?
Najeh Davenpoop
March 6th, 2010
11:12 am
Keep him in Gwinnett for an extra month and control his rights for an extra year. Obviously.
Chris
March 6th, 2010
11:18 am
I’m ready for the Braves to make a comeback and every player counts. I want the BEST team on the field for Bobby’s last year. Even if that costs the Braves an extra year on the back end!
Jeff R
March 6th, 2010
12:01 pm
I believe Mark is correct. Wren will opt to assign Heyward to Gwinnett to add another year of Heyward’s services.
If Wren does so, I can’t say I blame him. The game’s economics and the union agreements are such that it forces teams to play all sorts of tricks.
Johnny Hazeltine
March 6th, 2010
1:46 pm
Just like the Cardinals will find room in their budget to resign Albert Pujols, I believe that the Braves will one day find room to sign Jason Heyward.
Johnny Hazeltine
March 6th, 2010
1:49 pm
Plus, in Bobby Cox’s final year, where 1 or 2 wins could determine a playoff spot, I doubt Wren will make the same mistake he did last season with Hanson by waiting to call up Heyward.
Ken Stallings
March 6th, 2010
2:14 pm
You make a cogent business analysis, Mark. It is hard to refute the logic of it and that is why I think your prediction will be accurate — likely to the very day Heyward is called up!
quint
March 6th, 2010
2:32 pm
Ramblin Wrecker
Dude, you need to team up with Mark. Good arguments…good arguments.
One other thing, guys: If Bobby makes the decisions about who breaks camp, would he be less concerned about negotiating with Heyward in ‘16? Not saying he would he would do this for himself and say to heck with the team 6 years from now, but could he?
gcs
March 6th, 2010
2:36 pm
DON’T RUSH HIM!
The Braves are not going to win diddly this year. There is no need to bring Heyward up too soon.
Look what happened to Jordan Schaefer, Joey Devine and you could say Frenchy too when they were brough up too soon.
Also note that McCann is the only former “Baby Brave” left on the team.
…
true but...
March 6th, 2010
2:56 pm
Heyward would sell a lot of season tickets too, he would help to fill the stands early on, and is there really going to be much of a difference in how much we have to pay him etc if we get one more year. I say it seems more likely that he will cost a good bit more (per/year) after that extra year. Either way it is going to be a lot of money. The way things are going under this ownership we are going to need him to take a home town discount either way. I say play the best guys you got on opening day. If we are going to be in this wild card race –> Philly has a really good club and has to be the division favorite, then we have to realize that even these early games are really important. Its going to come down to a couple of wins or losses. Lets be honest Glaus and Chip are kind of hope and whim players at this stage and they are our power bats 3,4. We will want and need all the major league experience Heyward can get.
Mark Bradley
March 6th, 2010
3:07 pm
Stay tuned for my next great article, where I’ll try to convince you that Jason Heyward is potential trade bait, you know, to save money six years from now.