Why Jason Heyward might not be here on Opening Day
Regarding prospects, Frank Wren has a saying: “Players will tell us when they’re ready.” Regarding Jason Heyward, Bobby Cox said over the winter: “He might be one who doesn’t have to go through the usual channels.” But even as we on the periphery seek to project the career path of the sport’s latest phenom, we cannot lose sight of one silly but sobering baseball truth:
It makes financial sense for Heyward not to start 2010 on the Opening Day roster.
Rob Neyer of ESPN.com outlines this oddity by referring to a post of Bryan Smith’s on FanGraphs. Smith likens Heyward to Evan Longoria, and it’s an apt comparison: Longoria was the No. 1 prospect of 2008, just as Heyward is the top of the class of 2010. Writes Smith:
Longoria famously waited two weeks for a call-up at the start of the 2008 season, with Joe Maddon slotting Willy Aybar into the third baseman slot until Longoria got the call on April 12. The reason was clear: Longoria would serve only 170 service days with the Rays that season. By Major League rule, a player is a free agent after six full seasons, which are constituted by 172 service days. By waiting two weeks, the Rays bought themselves another year of controlling Longoria.
On the opposite side of the coin is the Detroit Tigers, who were so enthused by Rick Porcello’s Spring Training a year ago that they started the season with the top prospect in their rotation. Porcello would post a 6.42 FIP in April, but was consistent enough to remain with the Tigers all season. As a result, Porcello will be a free agent after the 2014 season. The Texas Rangers, who waited three weeks to call up Derek Holland (for a Longoria-like 170 service days), will have control of Holland through 2015.
There is simply no argument to be made that the marginal value gained by playing Jason Heyward over Matt Diaz for three weeks in April is worth losing Heyward’s rights for the 2016 season. Yes, calling him up on April 25 will mean that Heyward will be a “Super Two”, and thus, eligible for arbitration a year early. But arbitration contracts are still discounts over free agent ones, and I can already promise you that Heyward’s first free agent contract will be a big one. Without delving into the Heyward vs. [Stephen] Strasburg argument, the Braves should certainly take note that Nats GM Mike Rizzo has already written off his right-handed star beginning the season in Washington. If you think it’s because they want some minor league seasoning for him, you’re crazy — they just want an extra year of not dealing with Scott Boras.
About here, I hear you saying: What about ticket sales? Won’t the Braves sell more seats in April if fans know they’ll have to chance to see the team’s biggest prospect since Andruw Jones play at Turner Field? Sure they would. But they wouldn’t sell nearly enough tickets — not in April, when we’re just turning back to baseball and school is in session — to offset the down-the-road benefit of keeping Heyward off the free agent market as long as possible.
(Another consideration: The Braves play only nine of their first 22 regular-season games at home; five of the nine are midweek night games.)
In a perfect world, Jason Heyward would be starting in right field against the Cubs on April 5. He’s really all any Braves fan wants to see. (Apologies to Melky Cabrera.) And Cox keeps saying that if Heyward is among the team’s 25-best players — really, how could he not be? — he’ll be on the 25-man roster when the club breaks camp.
But baseball, as Joe Garagiola noted a while back, is a funny game. Anyone who thinks the Braves — like every club except the Yankees and Red Sox — aren’t looking to save money on player contracts hasn’t been paying attention.
Jason Heyward is really good. But Tommy Hanson was really good a year ago, and he didn’t get the big-league call until June. Yes, Heyward is on an even faster track, but if he manages to outpace the service-time consideration he won’t just be the sport’s No. 1 prospect — he’ll be the world’s fastest human.
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255 comments Add your comment
Ramblin Wrecker
March 5th, 2010
12:08 pm
Brian from SC,
I’m sorry but I don’t care about these statisitcs. Hanson is head and shoulders above Jo Jo Reyes or Kris Medlen. You can’t tell me he wouldn’t have made a significant difference over those two guys. Remember its not just his impact on those games, it’s also the saved innings of relivers (where Reyes and Medlen went 4 or less innings in all their games, Hanson went 6 or more in most of his starts).
You can’t boil baseball down to a complicated equation and think you know what having Tommy Hanson would mean in more games.
Benjamin
March 5th, 2010
12:09 pm
I say bring him up Opening Day and don’t look back.
Keeping Hansen down last year while we played cat-and-mouse with Tom Glavine might have been enough to keep us out of the playoffs, and he’s only able to impact the team every fifth game. If Heyward’s exponentially better than Melky on Opening Day, let’s don’t mess with it.
MiamiBrave
March 5th, 2010
12:09 pm
Let’s put it into monetary terms. The 50 at bats he misses in the majors during those two weeks will equate to approximately $10-$12 million in savings. This would be the salary difference between his last year of arbitration versus his first year of free agency. That is $200,000 per at bat. I’m sure Brian Cashman will hate to hear he’ll need to wait another year to start the bidding.
Ramblin Wrecker
March 5th, 2010
12:12 pm
And the same is true for having Jason Heyward in more games.
Think of it this way, most of you guys think there is an adjustment period once Heyward is facing major league pitchers. Then he’s going to be 2 weeks (or 2 months) behind in that adjustment, so keeping him down also minimizes his ability to impact later in the season.
If winning is paramount, and in my world it is, waiting is stupid.
What the fudge
March 5th, 2010
12:13 pm
Yeah we need to make the Yankees wait at least one more year before they get him
Brian from SC
March 5th, 2010
12:15 pm
Ramblin, the Braves went 3-5 in games started by Reyes and Medlen in April and May last year. Where’s your 6-7 game swing? A 5-game swing would have made the Braves 8-0 in Hanson’s first 8 starts of his career. How likely is that, considering the Braves were only 12-9 in games he actually did start last year?
Sonny Clusters
March 5th, 2010
12:16 pm
We was a child prodigy and played on teams with players a lot older than us. It would be a shame if this young man doesn’t get to play opening day in Atlanta just because the team was trying to save some money. They did that last year and look what we got. Still, money talks. Half price day at Dairy Queen is the biggest day of the week.
Greg in TN
March 5th, 2010
12:18 pm
Certainly good food for thought, Mark, and something I’ve been keeping in the back of my mind all offseason.
I saw Heyward play last August and he has all the tools to succeed at the MLB level and also seems to have a good head on his shoulders. It’s rare finding the athlete that has both and in most cases, it’s those athletes (the Jordans, the Jeters, the Mannings) that excel on the biggest stages of sport. Can Heyward take it to that level? Time will tell.
Wren and Company have an interesting decision ahead of them if present trends continue. Start Heyward in right field when the Cubs come to town one month from now, or have him start the season in Gwinnett to help ensure he spends the 2016 campaign in a Braves uni.
To me, having him in a Braves uniform in 2016 trumps everything else. Barring injury, he really has an upside I can’t even fathom at this point, and to jeopardize that for a few weeks this April is shortsighted. Ted Turner isn’t walking in the door anytime soon, and while Liberty isn’t applying brakes to the payroll that Time Warner did prior to the team being sold, they’ve still got a business to run and shareholders to appease. They will allow reasonable increases to payroll to keep the team competitive, but nothing over the top. Not in this economy. Unless 755 Hank Aaron drive is sold out for 81 dates and merchandise/concessions sales warrant it, this is what we have to work with for the forseeable future.
To me, it makes it even more important to be smart with player personnel decisions. If the Braves allow Heyward to break camp, it tells me they have a reasonable expectation that they can ink him to a contract prior to arbitration (similar to what was done with McCann). And with CSE being the firm that’s representing Heyward, I don’t see that as an unrealistic assumption.
It’ll be an interesting final week of spring training to be sure.
chem
March 5th, 2010
12:22 pm
Excellent “big picture” article Brad. It’s refreshing to see an article about Heyward that isn’t entirely composed of quotes from other players/ managers about how super fantastic he is. Your coworkers rarely provide insight or anything meaningful while reaching their blog quota. You can punch DOB in the face for me next time you see him.
yellarjacket
March 5th, 2010
12:24 pm
I understand if the Braves decide to wait to call up Heyward. However, you can’t win the division in April, but you can dang sure lose it. Play your best 9 guys from day one and give yourself the best chance to win the division or at least make the playoffs.
Mark Bradley
March 5th, 2010
12:25 pm
In the FanGraphs post, Smith refers to the long-term contract Longoria signed with Tampa Bay as a case study in how to do things.
dap01
March 5th, 2010
12:26 pm
Mark: It is a tough call but you are correct, let Heyward stay at AAA for the minimum amount of time.
It will keep him with us longer and it will also be a safer move. Remember Schafer, he needed more time in the minors.
Diaz can rake for a few weeks.
North Fla Braves fan
March 5th, 2010
12:33 pm
makes sense..give up 2 weeks to keep him for another year and then the bonus is not having to deal with the satan of baseball in Boras.
I say do it for the longer term results!!
VinceVanGo
March 5th, 2010
12:35 pm
I’ve been playing & following baseball for over 50 years and consider myself a baseball purist. Forget the Free Agency Rules, forget the MLB Players Union, forget Scott Boras. These and others have helped ruin our National Pastime. However I still love baseball and think this. Give a young man the starting job when he deserves it, and then pay him what he deserves when the time comes. Especially if he is a franchise player. Boston did it with Ted Williams. St. Louis did it with Stan Musial, the Yankees did it with all of their Bombers. The Braves did it with Chipper and McCann, and with Maddux, Smoltz, & Glavine in their prime. Let’s not make it all about money and saving years. Let’s make it about playing when you’ve earned it and saving what little respect is left in the game. Go Braves and young Heyward.
Greene Hornet
March 5th, 2010
12:38 pm
I completely agree VinceVanGo… As long as the Braves have the money to do it, I agree. I just hope it doesn’t hurt them in signing other good players at that time.
Base
March 5th, 2010
12:39 pm
Why doesn’t 680 broadcast the Braves preseason? Why is there no FM.
Brian from SC
March 5th, 2010
12:40 pm
VinceVanGo, I wish it could be that simple again. But it never will be. Ted Williams and Stan Musial played for $100,000 a year. And there was no such thing as a free agent…Williams either played for the Red Sox, or he didn’t play baseball at all.
JJ
March 5th, 2010
12:41 pm
Just my .02, but nine games without JH to start this week swapped for an entire season later on is a fantastic deal. It’s just the prudent thing to do. However, waiting until June like they did with Hanson is just totally absurd. The liklihood of JH’s absence having a negative impact on this club in the first nine days is probably nill. The liklihood of his absence having a negative impact over the first two months of the season is almost guaranteed.
No way I would be happy with that. (Not that it matters how I feel about it).
Brian from SC
March 5th, 2010
12:44 pm
JJ, I think the only way Heyward is in AAA any time past the first couple of weeks is if the Braves, and more particuarly Diaz/Cabrera, start off hot and there’s not a need for him. There will be no Super Two considerations with Heyward as with Hanson…to much at stake.
Hillbilly Deluxe
March 5th, 2010
12:45 pm
It’s a business and this is Liberty Media we’re talking about.
AZBravoFan
March 5th, 2010
12:46 pm
If you really think Heyward is the face of Atlanta’s future, then you’re planning on locking him up with a long term deal eventually. So the two weeks or one month of service time is irrelevant. Just go with him to start the season. If you really think there’s no way to keep Heyward from going to the Yankees when he’s a free agent, then you try to keep him here as long as possible for as cheap as possible. If that’s the organizational philosophy, then you’ve gotta send him down until June and save the service time. If Melky and Glaus are raking this spring, then I think we’ll all feel better about having Heyward start in Gwinnett.
Hillbilly Deluxe
March 5th, 2010
12:46 pm
Williams either played for the Red Sox, or he didn’t play baseball at all.
And that was wrong, even though it was legal.
McCann Fan
March 5th, 2010
12:48 pm
Nooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
J-Hey needs to be in right field at Turner Field on April 5th. He’s ready to play now. Plus, he’s from here and most likely wants to spend his entire career here. Let’s worry about the money later and let his All-Star career begin ASAP.
What if……………Tommy Hanson had been in the rotation from the start last April. I’m just sayin’
BrokeBackJacket
March 5th, 2010
12:53 pm
There is a more than valid argument either way! Excellent article Mark. IMHO the Phillies are at worst 3rd best team in baseball this season and will be very difficult to win the division even with a great first year fron Heyward…wild card maybe…considering the Braves mgt. and fiscal limitations, it would be the far wiser decision to “buy” an extra year by giving up Heyward for 10 games this year!
If he is as good as billed…and God I hope he is…I will gladly give up Heyward for 10 games, if it guarantees having him for at least one extra year when he should be in his prime!
Say Heyward in the absolute diffenence in 2 wins in the first 10 games this year….just how many wins could he be directly responsible for in a full season 6 or 7 years down the road?
Go Braves…spring training in full swing..season right around the corner….my second most time of the year…by far!
DawgDad
March 5th, 2010
1:03 pm
All I can say is Cabrera, Jones, and Glaus had better be ready to go and come out of the gate strong. A team CAN get buried in the first two weeks of the season.
My expectations for an outfield of Cabrera-McLouth-Diaz are pretty low. I’d be surprised if the Braves could break .500 this year even with the best pitching in the league.
All Heyward has to do is perform at the level of Melky Cabrera or Matt Diaz vs. RHP. So, .260 10 homers 65+ RBI is about what he needs to produce to NOT be a drag on the team’s offense. Keep that in perspective this year; anything above that is gravy. Look back at other top players and that’s about what you can reasonably expect in a rookie franchise prospect (to name just a few, Mantle, Aaron, Winfield, Griffey Jr., C. Jones). At that level, with any defensive ability at all, he’s actually an UPGRADE over Garrett Anderson.
Tailback U
March 5th, 2010
1:06 pm
Unless you are a Braves exec worried about your car you got
to start this year off with the kid.
Start of the year with a good vibe surrounding the team and
with a little luck the team will do well enough to keep the
positive buzz going. This will be important to how willing
the team is to make deals that keep them in contention.
Keith
March 5th, 2010
1:15 pm
You can lose a playoff ticket in April as well as September. If JHey can win us 1-2 games with his set of 5 tools then doesn’t Bobby and the team deserve the chance to win. I am sick of accountants running baseball.
bill_in_atl
March 5th, 2010
1:15 pm
Mark, you say that “the only reason to be really excited about the 2010 club is Jason Heyward”, but how can that even be realistically possible?
If he’s that good then it will mean that the Braves are going to score a lot of runs most likely.
Considering the Braves already have what appears to be the best pitching staff in the league wouldn’t it be likely that if Heyward is half the player we all hope he’ll be then the Braves will be in the thick of a pennant race? Sounds exciting to me.
Frankly I’m not sure how any Braves fan (or home town reporter) wouldn’t be excited to see Hanson and JJ pitch a full season together at the top of the rotation. Seems impossible to me.
Personally I’m excited to see all of the following:
1. If Hudson can return to form following the full recovery and if he can challenge Hason and Jair as the ace of the staff. I think it’s quite likely and if so the Braves become a VERY hard out in an October series, especially with Lowe and KK to choose from as our 4th option.
2. How Prado will do playing a full season at 2B. What an improvement over the first half of last year we should expect!
3. How McLouth will fare with his eyes fixed and playing a full season in ATL. The guy was an all-star (and a gold-glove winner) for a reason 2 years ago.
4. Billy Wagner coming out of the pen to save games. I realize he’s fresh off the major surgery but frankly I saw enough at the end of LAST year to know he’s back and as good as ever. He could get hurt (as could every player in the game) but I’m excited to see him in the role he’s in.
5. Chipper redeeming himself after the 2nd half of last year. Can he do it? Good question. I’m not counting on him to be anywhere near 2008 form, but if he is, then the NL East becomes Atlanta’s to lose.
6. How McCann’s eye surgery will affect his game. I seem to recall him being literally one of the best hitters in the game (not just catchers) prior to the start of his eye problems. If his eyes are as good as he seems to say, again that is exciting news to me as a Braves fan. I see him as a serious MVP candidate this year if his eyes hold up.
8. I’m not expecting anything super from Glaus at 1B, but that’s another guy that COULD have a big year and if so it’s just gravy..and I’ll be excited to see how he does.
I may be getting a little long-winded, ok maybe more than a little, but I just don’t see how you could make that comment.
VR Jacket
March 5th, 2010
1:16 pm
For everyone assuming Hanson’s year would have been a success had he not started in AAA, take a look back at Smoltz’s rookie season. I think he started 1-10, had to go through therapy, then finished strong.
Bubba
March 5th, 2010
1:21 pm
@BravesFaninTN – you said: “indeptness” – Now THAT’S ineptness!!!!
ASHEVILLE DAWG
March 5th, 2010
1:21 pm
It seems pretty black and white, two weeks early or one full year. Put me in the category that say “waiting makes the most sense”. Two weeks in Gwinnett won’t kill Heyward, and saving money in this enviroment is the way it has to be.
Scared of Jet Jaguar
March 5th, 2010
1:24 pm
Look,
We need to wait and then have Heywerd another yr. We Dont know what 2019 will bring, and we dont wanna lose him okay.
Jack G.
March 5th, 2010
1:25 pm
If I were Heward and the Braves stiffed me out of big bucks for an extra year, I would be Pi$$ed.
To get even I would take free agency at the first opportunity and tell the Braves to stick it.
Economy can sometimes bite you in the A$$. Cheap aint the way to go.
All of the players are overpaid, but you have to go with the flow. It is what it is
Steve
March 5th, 2010
1:25 pm
Mark,
Any insight on how ticket sales have gone so far? Single game and season?
Steve
March 5th, 2010
1:36 pm
Whatever happens the Braves need to make sure that Sports Illustrated does not use JHey on their cover and lable him “The Natural!”
fieldofdreams
March 5th, 2010
1:37 pm
Three weeks at Gwinnett won’t hurt anyone?
McCann Fan
March 5th, 2010
1:38 pm
McClouth .282, 23, 75
Escobar .305, 15, 75
Chipper .310, 16, 80
Glaus .265, 24, 90
Mac .320, 27, 100
J-Hey .297, 26, 97
Prado .300, 12, 65
Diaz .314, 10, 60
Melky .275, 6, 45
Hinske .275, 10, 25
Infante .305, 4, 30
Ross .280, 7, 35
KPH
March 5th, 2010
1:38 pm
Lets see lose him for 2 weeks or a whole season…???? Duhhh. Hello G. Braves see ya in a couple of weeks coach Cox.
John
March 5th, 2010
1:40 pm
Here’s another reason why Heyward might not be here on Opening Day: In a pro-active cost-cutting move, the Liberty Media Braves traded Heyward for prospects.
sugarfoot
March 5th, 2010
2:02 pm
Heyward, Heyward, Heyward! If he is the key to the Braves success, I fear we are in trouble. Is there nothing else to write about? You know dang well that the Braves organization is going to do whatever it can NOT to spend money. Go ahead and plan on him spending the first of the season in Gwinnett, so the company retains money and bargaining power, because they really do not care about winning games.
Tony
March 5th, 2010
2:08 pm
Heyward should break camp with the big league club. It’s NOT only “all about the $$$”. The Braves have a HUGE need for production from it’s ourfied.
Last year, when Hanson started the season at AAA, the braves were LOADED
with quality starters.
The need is win now. The $$$ is secondary. My bet? Heyward
starts the season as an Atlanta Brave in RF.
doc
March 5th, 2010
2:21 pm
hanson not being here might have cost them some games as he proved to be that good. would it have been enough to get them to post season, maybe?
just the same to hold him back and save millions even if for fifteen days would hard to ignore. in the meantime maybe the g braves would out draw the a braves.
All I'm Saying Is...
March 5th, 2010
2:31 pm
I CAN’T BELIEVE THIS IS EVEN A DEBATE (AND YES I KNOW I’M SHOUTING): IF HE PLAYS IN GWINNETT FOR TWO WEEKS, WE GET ANOTHER ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!
Give up 14 days and get 365 days?! Heck yeah, I’m making that deal since we’re talking about the J-Hey kid.
Are you “He needs to start out in Atlanta” people completely clueless? No one is suggesting we keep him down until June. Plus we don’t have an inept at the plate outfield of Schafer, Francoeur, and Diaz/GA to start out like last year without even mentioning the instant outs known as Kelly Johnson and Casey Kotchman that use to be in the line-up.
Our hitters are better all around and leaving J-Hey at AAA for TWO WEEKS is no big deal for our success in 2010.
Geez, I’m sorry but anyone who thinks J-Hey should not go down for TWO WEEKS is a flipping idiot.
LET’S GO BRAVES!
DC Braves Fan
March 5th, 2010
2:45 pm
Keep this in mind on the money. Waiting to call Heyward up could cost the Braves a couple of games in the standings. Given the division they play in and the competition in this league, that could be the difference between making the playoffs and watching them. The playoff gates alone, particularly when you factor in the time value of the money, would more than make up for the early Free Agency period. Had the Braves brought Hanson up last year at the beginning of the season, they may have actually had a chance to win the wild card.
OrlandoDawg
March 5th, 2010
3:14 pm
You start Heyward off in Gwinnett. If it were Richmond, it’s a much different story. In Gwinnett, Heywards still around to get people excited for the Braves. The Braves are as cheap as anyone- he’s starting off in Gwinnett even if he hit’s 1.000 in spring training, sorry clowns.
Like someone up there said, this could save the Braves $10-15mm long term to possibly reup on Hanson…
retired scout
March 5th, 2010
3:21 pm
The kid has played three spring training games and I believe has two hits but seems almost everyone assumes he is “ready” for the starting RF position. What is this based on? How many have ever seen him play? Are the opinions just based on what you have read from sportswriters, bloggers, etc? Not a very good basis to form an opinion. He might benefit very much in his development by playing a couple of weeks to a month at Triple A, and who knows whether it would help or hurt the Braves record? Certainly, not any of us here.
Carolina Gent
March 5th, 2010
3:22 pm
Just out of curiosity, if the Braves do send Heyward down for 10 days-2 weeks, who probably gets his place on the roster for Opening Day and then who gets shipped out when he gets the call (assuming Chipper’s not on the DL by then)?
Murphy4HOF
March 5th, 2010
3:27 pm
Disagree about the point that the marginal value gained is not worth an entire year of control. That’s only valid if you believe the Braves win the division by a landslide (or by at least a few games). Heyward could make quite a difference from the get-go and since games won at the beginning of the season matter just as much as games at the end of the season, I say if he’s ready let him start day 1. 1 extra HR or timely base hit in a close game could make the difference between the penant, the wild card, or an undeserving exit for Bobby Cox.
jim
March 5th, 2010
3:45 pm
People chill. If he is the real deal ( and I think he is ), waiting a couple of weeks is nothing. I would gladly trade two weeks to have an additional year when he should be far more productive to the Braves. Lets just enjoy the fact that the home team appears to have brought another winner to the program. Who would have thunk it?
Halberstram
March 5th, 2010
3:48 pm
There may be more implications than just trying to save money. Heyward has had barely any bats above single A. He also wasn’t able to participate much in the Arizona Fall League. With all the pressure surrounding him, especially since he’s a hometown kid, I think it would be best to let him start out at Triple A.