Memo to the Braves: $95 million doesn’t go as far as it did
Johnny Damon has signed with Detroit. This should surprise no one, least of all us Atlantans. Damon will make $8 million for one season’s work, and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports that none of the money is deferred.
The Braves made an overture toward Damon. They offered rather less than $8 million, with some of the money believed to be deferred. This is the way the Braves have come to operate.
They traded Javier Vazquez because he was due to make $11.5 million. They signed Troy Glaus because he was available and has a history of being productive, but also because he came cheap. They re-upped Tim Hudson because he seems healthy, yes, but also because he offered a hometown discount.
If we credit the Braves for resolutely holding their payroll under $100 million — Baseball Prospectus projects it at $95 million for this season, though other estimates put it around at $90 million or less — we must also debit them for slipping further behind the ol’ curve. Times change, and $95 million doesn’t go as far as it once did. According to John Perrotto of BP (link requires registration), that figure would put the Braves 13th-highest among 30 big-league teams.
And here’s the rub: The Braves’ payroll on Opening Day 2000 was similarly $95 million, according to Baseball Chronology. That put them second to the Yankees. But it’s a decade later and the Braves are still trying to function the way they did when they were winning their division every year, and that’s one reason they haven’t won their division since 2005.
Can you reasonably expect to be a serious contender in the year 2010 while spending roughly as much as you did 10 years ago? Of the eight teams that qualified for the 2009 postseason, seven are projected to outspend the Braves. (Colorado is the exception.) Even the Minnesota Twins, long a paradigm of small-market fiscal sanity, figure to spend more on personnel in 2010.
Every year Braves chairman Terry McGuirk issues his boilerplate assertion that Liberty Media will spend as much as is necessary to compete, but with every year it becomes more apparent the money just isn’t there, at least not to buy ballplayers. There was no reason to trade Vazquez other than money, and Vazquez became the guy to go only because Frank Wren couldn’t find someone willing to take Derek Lowe for $15 million.
No, you can’t just buy yourselves a World Series title. If you could, the Yankees would have won every year for a decade. But there hasn’t been a real small-market champion since Florida in 2003, and the expanse between the haves and the have-nots continues to grow. When the mid-market Cardinals — they were mid-market then, if not now — won in 2006, their $88 million payroll put them 11th; today they’d be 16th.
And here’s the worst part: Wren has demonstrated no Billy Beane-like facility for winning big on a budget. (Billy Beane hasn’t lately, either.) In Wren’s one season as general manager of the Orioles, he signed Albert Belle to the biggest contract in franchise history. In his second offseason as Braves GM, he signed Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami for an aggregate $83 million over four seasons and seemed to develop buyer’s remorse overnight.
To be fair, even John Schuerholz needed a big budget to amass all those first-place finishes. And last month Schuerholz told Mark Bowman of MLB.com that the Braves’ 2010 payroll would be roughly the same as in 2009, the president’s point being that his club had bravely resisted the urge to cut costs. But when, if ever, will it increase them? And if, as seems manifestly clear, the Braves are under orders to spend only so much, why won’t they say exactly how much?
Maybe this season will be different. Maybe Wren will stand revealed as the Value King of baseball. But will coupon-clipping cut it in it a division where the Phillies and the Mets are spending $140 million apiece? Will we ever see another sub-$100-million team in the Fall Classic?
At last check, Scott Boras hasn’t opened a kiosk at Costco. If he does, we know who’ll be first in line.
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147 comments Add your comment
.
February 22nd, 2010
10:50 am
Jethro, good luck on winning that pennant with what you’ve got. Always NEXT YEAR!
Mark Bradley
February 22nd, 2010
10:50 am
Oddly enough, the AJC has deferred paying me for almost 26 years now. (I’m kidding! It’s a joke!)
singndablues
February 22nd, 2010
10:59 am
Ah….the season hasn’t even begun and all hope is lost (according to Mark). So sad that since we’re only 13th in spending that assures that we have no chance. Guess we should just pack our bags and go home. Or Mark………
maybe you could see that the Braves have been more active in the off-season than 90% of the other teams, attempting to improve their chances while staying within a budget. For a team that has rarely been above 14th in attendance numbers over the last decade (yes – I would think that has an impact on revenue thus money available to spend – sort of like running a business?), what should the fans expect?
And here’s a little interesting fact:
The AP research showed the 10 highest spenders lowered payroll by an average of $7.8 million in 2009.
These are not exactly the times to be spending more money.
DirtyDawg
February 22nd, 2010
11:04 am
I would hope that local ownership – and not the Atlanta Spirit type – will step forward during the season. Ownership that recognizes that winning is not only good for the bottom-line, but good for the long-term value of the team (some people like to call it ‘The Brand’) as well…and, perhaps most of all, for the good of the community. We know ball players live well here, what we need is an owner that values what a consistently winning franchise – and that includes, especially, winning it all from time to time – can mean for the community. Pride makes the difference in almost anything. Give us something to be proud of once again.
If Liberty Media is just counting the days before they can ‘cash in’ on the Braves, then work out something now so that a new ‘co-owner’ could, for operating control, infuse a little capital into the process – say by the trade deadline. Of course we could have used that going into this season and kept all those damn pitchers and maybe even signed a big bat somewhere along the way…but that’s water down the Chattahoochee.
singndablues
February 22nd, 2010
11:05 am
…or at least we can feel better than Mets or Cubs fans (#’s two and three in spending respectively). Those $135 mil payrolls have really panned out for them. Money isn’t necessarily the answer.
bravedawg
February 22nd, 2010
11:06 am
Mark,
This is so wrong, I don’t even know where to start:
“They traded Javier Vazquez because he was due to make $11.5 million.”
No, that was but one reason why they traded Vazquez. Some of these other reasons played a part:
His 2009 season was an ANOMALY. No one seems to realize this. Past results are the best indicator of future performance, and his past results net out to an average of 12-12 W/L, 4.32 ERA, 183 Ks. That’s not great. They tried to get rid of Derek Lowe, but they couldn’t.
Javy was going into a contract year. They knew that if he had anything close to a repeat performance of ‘09, they wouldn’t be able to re-sign him. So they got something for him instead of losing him for nothing as a free agent.
Of course, economics had something to do with it. But the way you wrote it above, you lead people to think it’s the ONLY reason they traded him.
bravedawg
February 22nd, 2010
11:11 am
DirtyDawg – you echo what lots of people say around here…this pining for local ownership thing. What would that do, exactly? Is there something that mandates that local ownership would pour money into the team?
What did 14 straight championships do for pride in the city of Atlanta? Not a whole heck of a lot if you look at attendance numbers. Attendance declined year after year after year.
There is nothing that shows that the more money a team spends is directly proportional to an increase in win total. It’s not how much you spend, it’s how you spend it.
Mike
February 22nd, 2010
11:13 am
Mark…You seem to be trending towards mostly negative articles when speaking about the Braves. I haven’t read 1 thing positive from you lately about them. Its spring training! Its the time of year that every team has a shot. Alot of people get pissed that its guys like Terry, Frank, & John that are not spending money because they want to line their pockets. There is only one place this article should be directed at and that MLB for letting the sale of the Braves to a ridiculous faceless company from Colorado no less buy this team. We should all have figured this would happen. It will continue to happen until there is a new owner who will put some more money into the team to get them what they need. Has FW done everything right?….No, but I commend him for making the changes and strides that he has with what he has to work with. GO BRAVES!!! WORLD SERIES OR BUST!!!
GetwhatUpayfor
February 22nd, 2010
11:14 am
Sure if you don’t put the product on the field fans don’t go.. It is a business you have to give the fans something to go for. Put a winner on the field and attendance will go up. You still have $6 hotdogs etc and rip off parking and downtown Atlanta in rush time to get to games. Bad crime area. No marta to field. Then watch management put a cheap Team on the field?
Greg
February 22nd, 2010
11:15 am
Rule of thumb – no one player more than 15% of budget. No two more than 25%. No three more than 33%. No four more than 40%. No six more than 50%. Fill in the rest with cheap guys. That means that with a budget of less than $100M, your top player can’t be more than $15M. Braves problem is that they have two guys (Chipper and Lowe) making that much, and neither is a star. And you have to make sure that your most expensive guys are stars, or you better hope that you have some very hot young guys who basically subsidize the old guys’ money. They should never have signed Lowe, not because he isn’t OK, but because he isn’t a star, and for the Braves, he wanted star money. Just poor GM’ing.
bravedawg
February 22nd, 2010
11:16 am
Getwhatupayfor –
Again, as I mentioned above…recent history shows you’re incorrect. We won the division for 14 straight years (which should qualify as a good product) and attendance declined every year from 97-04. It’s not that simple.
Matt the Brave
February 22nd, 2010
11:16 am
Mark, Liberty does have to hold onto the Braves until 2011. They can put the team up for sale after this coming season if they want. However, I’m not completely sure that they will. This team is a cash cow for them. It just depends on if they want to continue to focus only on magazines or if they want to still be diversified.
Second thing, do you think that with a new manager that the ownership group may go for a completely different direction with general manager as well? I’m thinking not, but you never know.
Joel
February 22nd, 2010
11:18 am
Mark,
You’re forgetting that teams with far less in payroll, namely Tampa, can still seriously compete throughout the season. A massive payroll doesn’t equate results, team play, a lack of injuries and the right balance of play will give a team results. If I do remember the Rays won the AL East and subsequently the AL pennant over the mighty Yanks and Red Sox, who command the two highest payrolls in baseball.
Money doesn’t mean the Braves will win this year, it’s what they do on the field. Even without Vazquez the Braves still have a solid 1-5 rotation and if Heyward comes out of spring training ready to roll, why was Damon so necessary? The Braves have what it takes, a solid, not great, team with the motivation to send Bobby out a winner.
PH.D
February 22nd, 2010
11:21 am
The season hinges on the Vazquez trade, period. Put your money on the Yanks and Phils.
But the Braves will be good.
Vazquez may have worse numbers at YankeeNoodle Field.
But he was lightning! How do you trade him for the blue and belated rookie?
Thank you for nudging this point across through the Belle deal.
Did y’all hear what Don Sutton said about Vazquez: Maddux good when 95mph!
Bill
February 22nd, 2010
11:21 am
These are not exactly the time to be spending more money. @10:59
Tell our Congress and Obama that!
PH.D
February 22nd, 2010
11:23 am
I even think Wren traded Vazquez to the Yanks as a smokescreen.
Vazquez will have worse numbers and Wren will look better because of it, and can go sip Martini’s in Mexico while we all wallow in bad moves.
God Bless the Braves!
catch 22
February 22nd, 2010
11:25 am
I wonder how may “fans” on this board actually go to the Ted and pay for a ticket? The $95 mil payroll isn’t exactly chump change.
Bradley, I’ll bet the Braves love to see you.at the park….NOT!
Bill
February 22nd, 2010
11:26 am
I agree only with your GOD BLESS THE BRAVES. Ph.D
Delbert D.
February 22nd, 2010
11:27 am
Where are the billionaires when you need them? I wonder if Elton John would be interested in buying the Braves.
Ted M
February 22nd, 2010
11:43 am
As the DH of the White Sox, what are the chances Andruw Jones hits .265 with 25HR and 80RBI?
Matt
February 22nd, 2010
11:47 am
You can’t buy a championship???????
What did the Yankees do last year????? You can argue that they didn’t always spend their money in the right places. They haven’t invested in quality pitching until this past year. You don’t spend half a billion dollars in free agency and get to say “we didn’t buy a championship”.
Old Pro
February 22nd, 2010
11:52 am
You don’t need 5 quality starters (someone should tell Wren this) If he hadn’t over spent on pitching he’d have enough money to go out and get the big bat the Braves need.
As opposed to spreading the money around to 3 subpar players to fill positions, use that money and spend it on a quality player. Imagine if they could use the money wasted on Cabrera, Glaus, Hinske, and Lowe and sign A. Gonzalez for 4-5 years. Or Matt Holliday.
1eyedJack
February 22nd, 2010
11:53 am
Delbert, I don’t think the Braves would look good in pink uniforms.
bravedawg
February 22nd, 2010
12:17 pm
Matt – in most years, it’s true–you can’t buy a championship. Sure, the Yankees won last year, but what did they do from 2001-2008, while leading the majors in payroll by a WIDE margin? You can’t just spend–you have to spend wisely.
Joe
February 22nd, 2010
12:18 pm
FIRE HAWKS COACH MIKE WOODSON AND FIRE BRAVES GM FRANK WREN.
timthebrave
February 22nd, 2010
12:26 pm
I would like to see how they came up with 95 million. I see about $85 million. I don’t think Johnny Damon was worth $8 million. Any left hander in yankee stadium has fake power. Those first 5 rows are just fly outs at Turner field. I would rather see Nate mcclouth, Heyward, Cabrera and Diaz in the outfield.
Matt
February 22nd, 2010
12:26 pm
Bravedawg- that was my point. They’ve tried to buy themselves a championship during those years but they didn’t spend their money wisely. Make no mistake, the Yankees’ goal every off-season is to buy the best FA available.
A monkey could’ve “coached” that Yankees team to a championship last year!!!
timthebrave
February 22nd, 2010
12:28 pm
Wish we had the money to sign someone like Tex at first. Glaus is a good deal for the money but a lot of IFS for the Braves starting the season
Matt
February 22nd, 2010
12:29 pm
They showed they are willing to spend half a billion dollars to win. Why are we to think that is going to change? You don’t think they are going to go after Joe Mauer when he goes to FA?????? Half a billion people, say that out loud, HALF A BILLION DOLLARS!!!!
bravedawg
February 22nd, 2010
12:30 pm
Sorry Matt – I misunderstood. It gets hard to distinguish the rational from the irrational on here sometimes!
Matt
February 22nd, 2010
12:33 pm
No worries. It is frustrating though.
Wille
February 22nd, 2010
12:59 pm
Is bobby cox still with the braves? If so I am going to watch the grass grow.
ChiTownBravesFan
February 22nd, 2010
1:13 pm
I like this team. We are built for a 162-game season. Glaus will get injured, Hinkse will end up with 350 ABs, but so what. Chipper should bounce back and we have a full year of Hanson and Prado. Escobar will be 27 this year, and his power numbers are on a steady incline. If we can score enough runs to get in the tourney, don’t you guys like our chances with playoff experienced Lowe and Huddy with young studs JJ and Hanson? We are built for 162, and I like our chances.
Hillbilly Deluxe
February 22nd, 2010
1:21 pm
Mr. Peabody, set the Wayback Machine for 1978.
Big B CH 99
February 22nd, 2010
1:42 pm
This articles his the nail prefectly on the head. In 10 yrs, the Braves payroll has stayed the same & close to half the league has passed them. You have to adjust to inflation, & the Braves aren’t. Their $ 95-mill will put them in the middle of the pact in terms of payroll and that’s how they’ll end up on the field, mediocre. The Braves will never get any better until they get new ownership, b/c even w/ one of the best farm systems in MLB they won’t be willing to pay the big bucks to keep these prospects if/when they become really good. If Liberty Media still owns them we’ll be reading the same article in 2020. Payroll $ 90 – 105 mill, now in the bottom 10.
Stinky
February 22nd, 2010
2:39 pm
The Braves are saving their pennies for the day they no longer have a manager suffering from pre-Alzheimer’s dementia.
Alan
February 22nd, 2010
2:41 pm
Another article whining about the Braves not building from within.
Oh wait, they have one of the highest rated farm systems in the league.
The Braves’ payroll hasn’t increased because they haven’t won anything. The Phillies always had a mid-mark payroll until they started winning pennants and now they are outspending the Mets.
Careful Bradley, you’re starting to remind me of a certain someone who became a punchline in his old age for writing ridiculous, ill-thought out articles like this.
Fed Up With Wren (Again)
February 22nd, 2010
3:47 pm
Jermaine Dye, anyone? He should be really cheap now. BTW, anyone who says the Braves are built for 162 is right. They will play exactly 162 games and no more.
John Tucker
February 22nd, 2010
6:51 pm
Bradley, would you just relax.
Even with Chipper hurt or nonproductive, the Braves scored more runs after July 1, 2009 than anyteam in MLB. So, Wren did not need to overhaul the braves offense this off season, just a little tweaking. Over a whole season, Glaus, Heyward and Melky Cabrerra should be more consistent than LaRoche, Anderson and Kelly Johnson. Moreover, if Chipper or Glaus falters, Infante iand Prado can fill in well offensively at the infield corners.
Damon would have just clogged up the outfield for Heyward and Schafer.
Ryan
February 22nd, 2010
8:18 pm
As a sports management major, I find most of these comments pretty funny. We have one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball with JJ and Hanson. We have an annual allstar in Mcann. We have 2 of the best prospects in baseball in Freeman and Heyward and we got the Yankee’s best pitching prospect. We have an excess of wealth that will allow us to make a move when the trade deadline rolls around. Atleast we arent the Cubs, who spend and suck. Atleast we arent the Nationals. Try to see the good parts people.
The background (and some video) of a hot Braves prospect | Mark Bradley
February 24th, 2010
6:52 am
[...] You’ve doubtless read, courtesy of colleague Dave O’Brien, that the Braves have signed shortstop Edward Salcedo, an 18-year-old from the Dominican Republic. The team likes Salcedo enough to have given him a $1.6 million signing bonus, which is fairly big money for the organization that wanted Johnny Damon, who’s twice Salcedo’s age, to accept deferred money. [...]
Chad
February 24th, 2010
2:57 pm
Mark, I have a few questions for your consideration. What do you make of the fluctuation in the Braves’ payroll? The last time we made the playoffs it was a bit more than 86 million. In essence, we have increased the payroll by almost 10 million since 2005, yet have not made the playoffs.
I think you are touching on a big issue for the Braves. If other teams around them are increasing payroll, then how do we keep up with the other teams unless we increase payroll as well? Their increasing payroll means that they are paying their talent while adding additional pieces.
Do you believe that the problem or the stagnation of the Braves payroll has more to do with fans inability to support the team? Since 2000 the average attendance for the Braves is down from more than 39K to 29K in 2009 (http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teams/bravatte.shtml). Even during this decline, the Braves were consistently putting playoff teams on the field, yet the fans did not go to the games.
Mark Bradley
February 24th, 2010
3:09 pm
Actually, the Braves’ payroll in 2001 was $95 million. Over the past decade, they’ve essentially stayed the same.
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February 25th, 2010
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And Roodge Owns
February 26th, 2010
10:16 pm
A reasonable rant:
http://www.talkingchop.com/2010/2/22/1321397/mark-bradley-makes-me-want-to-go
Dave
February 27th, 2010
7:03 am
The Braves haven’t been serious about winning for years. Their team reeks of perpetual mediocrity. Their current “vaunted” pitching staff is nowhere close to the past and the lack of productive bats has been glaring for a long time. You get what you pay for. The Braves are getting what they pay for.
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