Presenting the thumbnail guide to the 2010 Atlanta Braves
This was Ejection No. 150. There has been one more since. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
One more season for a club, one last ride for the Thumb King. Bobby Cox is retiring as manager after the 2010 Braves, who are congregating for spring training, finish playing, and one of the summer’s subplots will be to see if the all-time ejection leader can lay claim to being the first (and surely the last) man ever to be thrown out of a full season’s worth of games. (Meaning 162.)
It will take determination and stamina and some luck, but I’m thinking Cox can do it. (He’s at 151 ejections and counting.) As for his final team … well, let’s let our own thumbs do the work.
Thumbs up for youth. Jair Jurrjens is 24 and nearing All-Star status. Tommy Hanson is 23 and finished third in the 2009 Rookie of the Year voting. Jason Heyward is 20 and might be named the 2010 Rookie of the Year. Freddie Freeman is 20 and might be named the 2011 Rookie of the Year. Arodys Vizcaino is 19 and might salvage the Javier Vazquez trade for Frank Wren. Put simply, the Braves can match prospects with any club.
Thumbs down for age. Chipper Jones is 37 and is coming off his worst season. Derek Lowe is 36 and is coming off his worst season since 2004. The Braves re-signed Tim Hudson, who’s 34 and who had arm surgery in 2008. They signed Billy Wagner, who’s 38 and who likewise had arm surgery in 2008. They signed Troy Glaus, who’s 33 and who had shoulder surgery last summer. They signed set-up man Takashi Saito, who’s 40. That makes two starting pitchers, two key relievers and two corner infielders on the far side of 30, three of whom have had surgery in the past two years. That’s a lot of risk.
Thumbs up for the bullpen. Even if some of them are old, there are a lot of arms here. It will be tough even for Cox to overtax this relief corps. Though he’ll try.
Thumbs down for the outfield. Heyward could turn this into a thumbs-up just by himself, but that’s probably too much to ask of a rookie who mightn’t even begin the season in the big leagues. Without him in the mix, the Braves are looking at some combination of Matt Diaz, Nate McLouth and Melky Cabrera. That’s substandard.
Thumbs up for the rotation. Hudson, Lowe, Hanson, Jurrjens and Kenshin Kawakami — that’s a good group.
Thumbs down for the rotation. With Vazquez, it would have been a great group.
Thumbs up for the farewell tour. Teams across the majors will line up to pay tribute on his final visit. Cox will hate it — after a career in the spotlight, he still gets antsy doing an on-camera interview — but it will be nice to see the rest of the sport acknowledge what too many of us locals have taken for granted or discounted entirely: That this is among the handful of greatest managers ever.
Thumbs down for winning one for the skipper. This is baseball. Rah-rah stuff doesn’t work. (If it did, Larry Bowa would have been Walter Alston.) The desire to send Cox out a winner might flare in September, provided the Braves are still in it, but it won’t be evident in April or June or August. These guys play 162 games. Nobody can stay geeked up for that long.
Loading ...Thumbs up for the Phillies’ flub. The team that has won three division titles in succession had a chance to assemble the best 1-2-3 array since Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz but traded Cliff Lee once they’d landed Roy Halladay. Asked about Halladay, Cox said: “At least we don’t have to face the other guy, too.”
Thumbs down for the feisty Fish. Over the past two seasons the Florida Marlins have won 13 more games than the Braves and have finished ahead of them both times. This winter Florida didn’t do as it traditionally does — sell off its good young players. On the contrary, the Marlins re-upped both pitcher Josh Johnson and second baseman Dan Uggla.
The all-thumbs forecast: Someone else will finish first in the East, but it won’t be the Braves. Florida will edge the Phillies. The Braves will win 85 games, one down from last season, and come home third, same as last season. And then the real fun will begin: Who replaces the Thumb King?
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202 comments Add your comment
Baba O'Riley
February 19th, 2010
3:14 pm
I see the armchair managers are out in full force. Reminds me of the dads at high school football games that stand around and 2nd guess every move the coach makes.
Cox manager of year
February 19th, 2010
3:18 pm
Wait till after this season is over and the off season begins. The braves will trade JJ, Hanson and KK. They seem to love giving up on our young great talent. JJ and Hanson. Find one more and you have a rotation that would be better then Glavine Smoltz Maddux. Try and keep these guys together for 15 years. Not going to happen.
Play them while you can because they will leave as soon as they are free agents. Probably to the Yankees who will offer a trillian dollar contract.
Oh and by the way, players no long want to play for Bobby Cox. If they did we would have players and not chump change.
John
February 19th, 2010
3:19 pm
If that’s addressed to me Baba – I don’t want to flatter myself – then let me be the first to say I’m no arm-chair manager. I don’t know the first thing about baseball.
I’ll offer the opinion that Bobby Cox’s managerial mediocrity is so self-evident, expertise isn’t required to identify it.
I’ll give you an example. You have any idea how a bull’s gastro-intestinal system works? Me neither, but I expect we can both agree that his dung stinks.
raleighbravefan
February 19th, 2010
3:21 pm
John – No comment on my 2:47 about pitching during the playoffs? Oh yeah, that would weaken your anti-Bobby rant.
raleighbravefan
February 19th, 2010
3:31 pm
Cox m of year – Yea, you are right. We gave up on KJ and Frenchy too soon. How much more time did they deserve? Who else have we “given up” on? Who have we traded of top prospects since the Tex trade?
In fact, we have been accumulating young talent, and are rated amoung the top for prospects. They havent given up on Shaefer yet. I don’t know what you are talking about. If you mean Vazquez and LaRoache, those were money moves dictated by payroll restraint.
John
February 19th, 2010
3:35 pm
Raleighbravefan, yeah, I’m scard to death of you – and your posting name is too long. As an astute indivual, you’re obviously aware that a rant is fueled by emotion with self-serving facts tossed in to reinforce the delusion.
Fourteen years out of fifteen years. Fourteen out of fifteen. The same job. The same boss. The same bed every night. The same parking spot at work. The best rotation is baseball at his disposa. Heck, the Braves #4 guy in the glory days (under-achieving as they may be) woulda been the starter on 2/3 of the teams in the majors. All stars stacked the batting order.
The Braves were loaded. They flamed out year after year after year after year. What’s the one constant? Do I really have to tell you?
What I like about the “Cox sucks! Cox is great!” debate is that reasonable people can disagree. I’m just a bit more reasonable then you are. – in my reasonable opinion.
blazerdawg
February 19th, 2010
3:40 pm
I agree with GTAC, this team will at least have more energy/speed/enthusiasm. I predict 88-90 wins and a wild card – and if they get in, watch out! GO BRAVES!
Baba O'Riley
February 19th, 2010
3:40 pm
Not a very good analogy John. Maybe if you were talking about someone like Eddie Haas, but Bobby’s a Hall of Famer.
However, I am inclined to agree with your first paragraph.
Mitchell
February 19th, 2010
3:45 pm
“Mitchell
February 19th, 2010
3:08 pm
Teams across the majors will line up to pay tribute on his final visit. Cox will hate it — after a career in the spotlight, he still gets antsy doing an on-camera interview — but it will be nice to see the rest of the sport acknowledge what too many of us locals have taken for granted or discounted entirely: That this is among the handful of greatest managers ever.
With the exception of the last five years and every year in the playoffs except one. The fact is there’s no reason the Braves can’t win the wild card at the very least if not the division if not the World Series. None…”
…
Didn’t mean to finish there…
The reality is we most likely will not. The Braves with Bobby Cox are incapable of performing to their full potential.
You know, why do I have to see Bobby every night on MLB Network making excuses about losing to inferior teams like the Cubs and Houston in consecutive years in the playoffs? That show Baseball Seasons, they do 2004 followed oddly enough by 2003 the next week. The other night they played them back to back.
Did anybody at all expect the Marlins to beat the Yankees in the World Series? No, but they did anyway. But to Bobby it’s all a crap shoot. Obviously you’re not going to win if you think that way.
If Bobby Cox is so great, tell me who would be lining up to hire him if he decides he wants to manage again in two years? Nobody.
We had a window last year, we had one team to beat and we blew it. We couldn’t even win the wild card. There’s no excuse for that. Bobby and Terry Pendleton just are not doing their jobs. And now we’re probably going to have a legitimate reason for losing to the Nationals this year because they’re probably going to be a .500 team. The Marlins are way better than us offensively and after all finished in second place in case anyone forgot.
That still doesn’t mean we can’t win this thing. I just don’t believe it’s going to happen.
Imagine what Turner Field is going to look like on the last day of the season when we’re out of the race in early September. He better step it up this year or no one’s going to be there.
Kashi
February 19th, 2010
3:50 pm
Hire me to replace Box cox in 2011.
John
February 19th, 2010
3:50 pm
Raleighbravesfan,
Yeah, you scare me to death. And your posting name is too long. As an obviously astute individual, you’re aware that rants are fueled by emotion and supported by self-serving facts to support the delusion?
Be that as it may, fourteen times in fifteen years, dude. Fourteen times in fifteen years, the Braves flamed out. What was the constant in all that time? Who always waddled from the dugout an inning too late to pull the pitcher? Who always played for the five-run homer? Who’s had the same boss, the same job title, the same parking space? Who got his head handed to him time after time after time? Do I really have to answer?
The one thing I like about the “Cox sucks! Cox is great!” debate is that reasonable people can agree to disagree. I just happen to be slightly more reasonable than you are.
John
February 19th, 2010
3:53 pm
Good one Baba. You can definitely hit a slow, lazy pitch when it’s thrown right down the middle of the plate – and I tell you it’s coming.
Baba O'Riley
February 19th, 2010
3:55 pm
John, Mark did a great blog on this subject on 9-25-09. It’s a good read.
Baba O'Riley
February 19th, 2010
3:56 pm
I agree John. I play slow pitch softball. I also pick the low hanging fruit and aim for the fat kid when I play dodgeball.
raleighbravefan
February 19th, 2010
3:57 pm
I like your “reasonable people” attitude, John. I love to debate, but I hate to argue.
All I’m saying is that a lot more went into those losses than Cox and his decisions. If all the wins were due to great talent, how come great talent didn’t take them all the way. I challenge you Bobby haters to compare the performance of the entire pitching staffs, especially the starters during regular season vs playoffs during those 14 years.
Conyers Braves Fan
February 19th, 2010
3:58 pm
Mark: I agree with your prediction on the Braves finishing third but I think it will be the Phillies again in first place. The Braves did not get what they needed to win the division or finish second that being a real power hitting outfielder. The also missed at first base with Glaus and by singing Wagoner and the 40 year old.
John
February 19th, 2010
3:59 pm
Baba, that fat kid was me! Damn, I can’t get away from you.
Baba O'Riley
February 19th, 2010
3:59 pm
Maddux was off in the ‘93 NLCS.
Baba O'Riley
February 19th, 2010
4:00 pm
Sorry John, another kid said it was you that swiped my ice cream sandwich. I was out for revenge.
Baba O'Riley
February 19th, 2010
4:02 pm
I’m not sold on Saito. The last 40 year old Japanese guy that was any good was The Great Kabuki.
SPS
February 19th, 2010
4:09 pm
raleighbravefan: you are correct sir. Only Smoltz showed up big consistently in the playoffs every year. The other “hall-of-famers” were shaky under the brightest spotlight, even though they put up better numbers than John when the games counted less.
For every game 6 clutch-type performance of the ‘95 series, there were several mediocre outings.
John
February 19th, 2010
4:17 pm
Raleighbravesfan, you are correct that Maddux and Glavine (save 1995) were not their regular-season selves in most post seasons. And good as Scheurholz (sp) was, he always seemed to get short-armed when it came to reaching for the wallet to pay for a relief pitcher.
Some argue that talent will win out over the long haul of a 162 game regular season. So Bobby’s roll-the-ball-out and let ‘em play style worked – I’d contend in spite of itself – or more due to the talent on the team than to his leadership. But in the compressed timeline of a seven game playoff series every game is 27.1428 times more important than it is in the regular season. So the impact of Bobby’s managerial short-comings were magnified.
And if “Cox is great!” supporters point to his regular season record to justify their positon, can’t we “Cox sucks!” proponents point to his record of post-season futlity with the same level of credibility?
Is Cox the only reason the Braves underachieved during the glory years? No. Is he the main reason? He’s neck and neck with anybody else in my opinion.
You guys have a good weekend.
Alaska Braves Fan
February 19th, 2010
4:21 pm
From the thirty thousand feet level, the Braves will leave Florida with a solid team. Injuries, or lack of them, will be a critical factor this year, but if all goes well we will be into the playoffs. This team has a chance to make the Series. Why? Deep rotation, strong bullpen, and several unlucky players of whom we have every reason to expect a very good year. One final word: Bobby Cox is one of the best managers ever to hit the field. His biggest shortcoming has been that HE doesn’t play, and his players just haven’t always produced as they should. Five years from now, I suspect almost everyone will be wishing he could return.
Baba O'Riley
February 19th, 2010
4:24 pm
I just saw Mark McGwire shun about 30 fans dressed in red down here in Jupiter. 2 things haven’t changed: Cardinals fans love of McGwire and McGwire’s disdain of dealig with the public.
sweet jebus
February 19th, 2010
4:25 pm
welcome back baseball… you are a dear friend. Go Braves!
RC in ATL
February 19th, 2010
4:42 pm
John…I agree with you. I don’t hate Bobby Cox. I just think that we have to point to one WS title in 15 tries and say that is not an acceptable return. We could have…should have won more.
Ex Fan
February 19th, 2010
4:50 pm
The Braves Suck and they will continue to suck until they get a real owner and their senile manager is gone.
Ex Fan
February 19th, 2010
4:51 pm
Anyone who thinks that this team will contend this year is living in a serious delusion.
Ex Fan
February 19th, 2010
4:55 pm
I followed the team since the year they came to Atlanta, all the way up until last year when I “divorced” them. I just got tired of being disappointed season after season, 1995 being the only exception.
Jellybeanball
February 19th, 2010
5:11 pm
we will be good this year and this is why, A chipper jone yall, a chipper jone yall, hit the ball off the wall, in to score for some more, a chipper jone yall, a bobby cox yall, in the hall yall,
Robert
February 19th, 2010
5:16 pm
The thing about baseball is that there is always change. Consistancy from any position is rare. Injurys are unpredictable. The best you can do is predict who will be competitive. The Braves have pitching depth and prospect depth. They will be competitive; however they will also have to overcome the injurys they will certainly experience. Our outfield is one guy short of being just OK. Melky brings nothing to the team other than a body with experience. We need to trade him while he still has some value. Frenchy at his worst is better than Melky at his best. I think by the end of the season we’ll have a new 1B, LF, and starter and at least three players we have now will be traded or released. One rookie will exceed expectations and another will meet them. The Braves will win between 80-90 games and with a little luck squeeze into the playoffs only to lose in the first round. Our MVP’s will be Prado and Jurgens. Our flops will be Saito and Cabrera… and our next manager will be Tom Glavine.
Mitchell
February 19th, 2010
5:41 pm
I wrote a really long post a while ago but it disappeared for some utterly unexplainable reason. Regardless, my sentiments are more or less in line with my boy Ex Fan.
I’m still a “fan” to a certain extent but I just don’t believe in any team managed by Bobby Cox anymore. I was fooled for the last time in ‘09 into thinking we would ever actually rise to a challenge, exceed expectations or play with heart. Seriously, how does anybody not get fired after winning only one playoff series out of seven in a decade followed by three third place finishes? It just doesn’t happen anywhere else. We’re stuck with this crap.
Didn’t we also finished 4th in ‘08? Oh yeah, almost forgot about that. Not! Huh huh. Hilarious.
Recent history tells us we’re in store for another third place finish in twenty-ten. It’s that whole averge thing. It’s tricky math but I got it under control.
Basically, I want to believe. Our pitching is still pretty damn good, our middle relief is probably going to be really damn good (closer? iffy), we have an potential MVP in our catcher, we might have a Rookie of the Year on our hands, we have a solid bench… but we still can’t steal bases, bunt, hit and run, run the bases, get clutch hits, score runs in the 9th inning, etc.. TP and Bobby Cox aren’t getting the job done.
I want to believe but I can’t, or don’t.
Happy pitchers and catchers day!
Mitchell
February 19th, 2010
5:44 pm
Didn’t we also finished 4th in ‘08? Oh yeah, almost forgot about that. Not! Huh huh. Hilarious.
I was trying to be sarcastic. That was dumb. I realize.
Robert
February 19th, 2010
5:49 pm
It is amazing that he can still be considered to be even an average manager – by many.
Indded it is. I challenge anyone to name me a worse baseball manager – (I’ll grant you that Bobby Valentine and Mike Hargrove come close)
Robert
February 19th, 2010
5:51 pm
“And if “Cox is great!” supporters point to his regular season record to justify their positon,”
So basically what it takes to be great is to have Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz pitching for you
Jeff R
February 19th, 2010
5:51 pm
“Thumbs down for age.”
You’re right, Mark. The older ages of some of the Braves’ key players should be a big concern.
Think the Phillies are the likely division again in 2010. Braves are contending for the wild card.
Hoosier Aaron
February 19th, 2010
5:56 pm
Thumbs up to another season of Braves Baseball. (I’m very tired of snow and below freezing temps) Play Ball!
Thumbs up to the Bravos trips to “New Commiskey” in Chicago and new Targer Field in Minnesota….I will be at both!
Thumbs up to interleague play….I’d love to see more.
Sg
February 19th, 2010
5:59 pm
Predicting who will win the NL East in February is like predicting when the first hurricane will hit Florida this summer. Injuries are such a huge part of sports as well as team chemistry. Look at CO last year after they canned their mgr. With Glaus and Heyward in the dugout, who knows how that will pan out.
The best thins is BASEBALL IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER!!! THANK GOD!!!
LA
February 19th, 2010
6:15 pm
Nothing, and I mean NOTHING will change until Bobby Cox retires.
Harry the Hat
February 19th, 2010
6:24 pm
Third. They’re no more competitive than that, despite all the millionaires on the roster. Under-performing millionaires, I might add.
Harry the Hat
February 19th, 2010
6:26 pm
Bobby Cox is not the biggest problem. Overpaid, under-motivated players are the real problem. Picking up a fat paycheck is their main concern.
Notso Fast
February 19th, 2010
6:54 pm
Too many “old folks” to have to depend on to really think we will do well.
Skeezix
February 19th, 2010
6:59 pm
My prediction for 2010—- The Braves’ season will be far better than Tiger Woods’ staged apology. Why would anyone but a warped egomaniac go on TV to apologize to his friends, family and business associates? I don’t get it. He owes me no apology and frankly, I really don’t want to hear about his messed up personal life. I guess next he’ll go on Oprah’s show, then then View, then Ellen….geeezzzzz……………
JabboRockefeller
February 19th, 2010
7:57 pm
I agree that the Braves shoulda won more WS with the embarrassing talent they had. You can’t blame being in the hunt 15-times and getting just one title, on just dumb, blind, bad-luck. The only constant through the entire run was Bobby. Different, equally-talented players, came and went on a yearly basis. There was LOTZ of turnover. Bobby, unfortunately, was the difference-maker once post-season rolled around. And not in a good way.
Keeping his players happy and on an extremely even keel made him one of the great in-season managers of all time. Those things don’t matter much in a short series. Emotion and tactical superiority win WS. Neither of which our beloved Braves possessed…
Bill
February 19th, 2010
7:59 pm
My list to replace Bobby Cox:
1. John Farrell Boston pitching Coach
2. Jose Oquendo Cards 3rd base coach
3. Greg Walker White Sox batting Coach
4. Ron Roenicke Bench Coach LA Angles
All are great working with players and know the game inside and out. Braves need someone from out of the system to bring new ideas and theory to the system.
Thanks Mark for info, keep up the good job.
JabboRockefeller
February 19th, 2010
8:07 pm
Bet Jose Oquendo know his way around a manufactured-run. He’d be a good choice.
dangerousdan87
February 19th, 2010
8:12 pm
Mark you deleted my post about Omar Infante and continue to ignore him in your Braves previews. I said he hit .350 before his injury last year. Sorry, hit hit .349. He will be a factor this year and Bobby Cox will give him ABs since he can play infield and the outfield. Do you know something we don’t?
The "Skipper"
February 19th, 2010
8:12 pm
I don’t understand all the bloggers on all these sites who are saying that the phillies are the best team in our division….didn’t the Braves win the season head to head series with them last season? And frankly, if not for ryan howard, the Braves would have sweeped them last year!!!! Who was cliff lee? Oh yeah, another hyped up pitcher that the Braves dominated!!! As a long time Braves fan, I’m excited and optimistic this year and believe that we have one of the best rotations in baseball (despite losing Vasquez), we are only one clutch hitter away (could it be Heyward?) from seeing another title!!!! GO BRAVES!!!!
"Chef" Tim Dix
February 19th, 2010
8:47 pm
Mark, should your prediction be correct, he won’t upstage him but on the tuesday following the season while cleaning out his locker, Chipper will look into a camera and say “I’m done too, thanks for letting me be a Brave.”
bravesfanbob
February 19th, 2010
9:24 pm
I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again. The best candidate to replace Cox is Roberto Kelly, 1st base coach for the Giants. All he did for the Giants organization was to go 258-157 with 3 completely different teams. His teams led the league in runs scored 2 of the years, and out of 16 teams in the league those 2 years, they were 14th and 16th in home runs. He was 2nd in runs scored the other year, and his team was 15th in homers. The guy is the best manager I’ve ever seen in his ability to teach kids ABC baseball, living by the phrase: “Get em on, Get em over, Get em in!” He told me “If you get a man on 3rd with one out, and you are leading by one or more in the 5th inning or later, the infield will come in over 80% of the time. When this happens, because of the drawn in infield, you will eventually score 2 or more runs that inning over 40% of the time. If you walk the batter, he will be able to steal 2nd over 88% of the time, and you will have 2 runners in scoring position. If they don’t walk him, the drawn in infield will make a .200 hitter a .300 hitter. You use EVERY opportunity to make your hitters have a better advantage. This is the way to score in baseball.” He is an incredible teacher of the art of baserunning, and his teams led the league all 3 years in stolen bases, sacrifices, and getting a runner on 2nd with no outs to 3rd base. Cox may be the best off the field manager that the game’s ever seen, but Roberto is a better on the field manager. WHOEVER gets him as manager, and that will be the Giants if Bochy doesn’t succeed this year, will see Kelly receive Manager of the Year honors at least twice in his first 4 years. I would love that to be the Braves, especially with so much young talent coming up to soak up his knowledge. FW, if you’re reading this, pay attention!