Bradley’s Buzz: Baseball Prospectus has Braves finishing 2nd
Would you remember Nate McLouth if he signed a baseball for you? (AJC file photo)
I’m a little confused. In his ESPN.com Insiders preview of the National League East, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus describes the Braves as “resurgent.” (Link requires registration.) But here’s the weird part: BP’s PECOTA ratings — no relation to Bill Pecota, a Brave of no great distinction in the ’90s — project the Braves’ record as 83-79.
The 2009 Braves finished 86-76. That’s resurgence?
PECOTA puts the Braves second in the division, five games behind the Nationals. (Ha! Just seeing if you’re paying attention. Behind the Phillies, natch.) Goldstein offers this breakdown:
Why They Might Win: Jason Heyward is the top position player prospect in the game, might be the right fielder on opening day and one of those rare talents who could make a big-league impact from day one. Their rotation could be outstanding, as Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens are both good young pitchers who could be even better this year — while the club is convinced Tim Hudson will return to form after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Why They Might Not Win: If Heyward isn’t ready, their corner outfield situation is pretty sad. Also — do you really want to put faith in a team that has Billy Wagner closing and Troy Glaus at first base? Good for you, because few others do.
Player Who Could Surprise: After slumping a bit in the batting average department last year, PECOTA projects a nice rebound for Nate McLouth — with 22 home runs, 24 stolen bases and a career-high .361 on-base percentage. That’s nearly All-Star territory.
Player Who Could Disappoint: PECOTA believes that a Troy Glaus/Eric Hinske combination at first base could produce 20-plus home runs, but also a combined slugging percentage that’s still under .400. The Braves have yet to find anything close to a replacement for Mark Teixeira, and after all of the talent they sent to Texas for him, Atlanta fans probably don’t want to be reminded of that.
Interesting that Goldstein mentions McLouth. Nobody around here seems to say much about him one way or another, which is kind of strange given that he arrived from Pittsburgh last June being touted as an All-Star center fielder. I wouldn’t write him off just yet. (Then again, I wouldn’t write off Derek Lowe, either, but the Braves themselves seem to have done that.)
Me, I think the Phillies will regret trading Cliff Lee and not having a closer other than Brad Lidge. They could regress. But I’d be wary of the Florida Marlins. Even if PECOTA sees them as an 81-81 club, I like the look of these Fish.
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126 comments Add your comment
matt_t
February 17th, 2010
1:26 pm
Baseball Prospectus is better for predicting individuals rather than teams. The team projections are usually close, but there’s too many variables teamwise.
But that last projection has them ‘winning’ the wild card.
Also BP doesn’t project older/injured players well (Wagner, Glaus)
carrolltondawg
February 17th, 2010
1:28 pm
first maybe
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
1:29 pm
Second, actually, carrolltondawg. But close. Kudos to matt t.
carrolltondawg
February 17th, 2010
1:32 pm
dang it should not have read the article. Which was good by the way. The question i have for you Mark and the braves, what about chipper? He is at the end of the line, shouldnt he be a worry for the braves, he is always injured anyway.
Fed Up With Wren (Again)
February 17th, 2010
1:32 pm
Boy, I sure hope Jason can deliver on the high expectations cuz that’s the only way this team has a chance to make the playoffs. Pretty heavy load to shoulder for someone who has never played at the ML level before.
prattvillenolzfan
February 17th, 2010
1:33 pm
Until spring training is in full swing, and the Braves start playing games, it’s really hard to predict how these Braves are going to be.
I agree with you Mark about Cliff Lee. The Phillies have the making of imploding this year if they are not careful. If Halliday doesn’t quickly adapt, and Lidge continues his struggles, this could be the year the Phillies digress. Besides, isn’t it time for a couple of the Phillies hitters to have a down year.
The Braves can easily win 90 games just as they can easily lose 90 games………Spring training’s next week. Can’t wait
and who they heck cares about being 1st
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
1:34 pm
The Braves are hoping Chipper is OK, carrollton. Because if he isn’t, there’s really not a big-time young third baseman in the chain. (Maybe they could call up Freeman and move Glaus across the infield.)
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
1:35 pm
And it’s way too early for predictions, prattvillenolzfan. Except that it’s never really too early for predictions, is it?
TommyP
February 17th, 2010
1:36 pm
There’s a serious gap between the Phils and everyone else. It’s their division again this year.
Mets are reeling and Minaya is probably done at some point this season.
Marlins? They’ll be in the thick of things…they always are. Actually held onto guys instead of shipping them off so they could be interesting but I don’t see them winning it.
Nats? Better than last year but not very good.
Braves: In the Wild Card race but no division for them.
Chanticleer
February 17th, 2010
1:36 pm
7th!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
fieldofdreams
February 17th, 2010
1:38 pm
Here’s hoping that Frank Wren’s recipe for the 2010 Braves yields a tasty season. If the chips fall the right way we can end up in the World Series, if not,.500 is not out of the question.
chem
February 17th, 2010
1:38 pm
When Lowe tired last year, he was leaving everything up in the zone. He was never that good in LA, just a product of that pitcher friendly park. If you look at his home/away splits he was awful away from LA. At least he’s only the #4 pitcher in this rotation.
Brian
February 17th, 2010
1:39 pm
Really strange that we can go from a bare outfield to a really strong one so quickly. Lets hope that this years collection comes up big as some were thinking last years group would more than get the job done. Personally, (Diaz, McClouth, Heyward) > (Anderson, Shafer, Jeff) by leaps and bounds. Plus we have Melky and Shafer for depth.
TommyP
February 17th, 2010
1:39 pm
If Halladay “doesn’t adapt”? What, to these fierce NL lineups as opposed to pitching against the Yanks, Red Sox and the rest of the AL? That’s all you have to hope for?
Phils are EASILY the team to beat, folks.
Daniel
February 17th, 2010
1:40 pm
AHHHH… nothing more fun and relevant in predicting a 162 game season even before spring training. It is very much like a whoopee cushion… kinda fun, in the wrong hands totally annoying and definitely useless. How are your hands Mark?
carrolltondawg
February 17th, 2010
1:40 pm
Thanks Mark point taken, but then your talking moving Glaus to third which may not work out either… Do you think it will be Chipper’s last year?
matt_t
February 17th, 2010
1:40 pm
heh, not only first but actual content instead of just screaming first.
How often does that happen?
Daniel
February 17th, 2010
1:40 pm
relevant than … sorry. oh, well blogging in the wrong hands here.
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
1:41 pm
One thing about Philly: Jimmy Rollins hit .250 last season and had to finish strong to manage that. He’s 31. Was that a down year or the beginning of something more dire?
TommyP
February 17th, 2010
1:41 pm
Lowe wasn’t awful away from Dodger stadium.
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
1:41 pm
Not often, matt t. Double kudos.
Daniel
February 17th, 2010
1:41 pm
as often as blogger self congratulations Matt.
D.W.
February 17th, 2010
1:42 pm
The best the Braves will do is finish 3rd. A Mets resurgence could put them in fourth. With Bobby Cox at the helm no way they’ll be better than the Fish.
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
1:42 pm
It’s too soon to know, carrollton. Chipper wants to play until he’s 40. He turns 38 this spring. But he won’t play much longer if he’s got nothing left.
Brian
February 17th, 2010
1:44 pm
And giving up Cliff Lee was tough I’m sure and keeping him would have been great. But I would trade him for Roy H every time. I am not looking forward to facing him, but maybe him being a righty is a better match-up for our lineup. Idk I would love to be wrong about this.
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
1:44 pm
Oh, and Brian, I wouldn’t call this outfield “strong” yet. It pretty much comes down to Heyward being really good really soon.
Daniel
February 17th, 2010
1:45 pm
D.W.- Man, you are sooo right with Cox at the helm this team will never, ever be better than the Marlins, Mets or Phillies. I mean especially if you overlook 20 or his 25 year career; he like never wins.
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
1:45 pm
Checking out for a bit. Going to get ashes. Anyone want a Filet-o-Fish from McDonald’s?
(Useless fact: Michael Vick’s favorite McDonald’s entree is the Filet-o-Fish.)
prattvillenolzfan
February 17th, 2010
1:51 pm
Hey Mark,
Making predictions and offering opinions about them is what keeps people like you and Schultz in business…..
TommyP
My point is that yes Halliday has pitched to the Yankees and Sox for the past 10 years. Because of that, he knows what their hitters strengths and weaknesses are I am not saying the NL East is superior, only that he’s going to need time to gain familairity with the rest of the NL…If you remember, Santana had somewhat of a rough couple of months his 1st year with the Mets.
I agree with you. The Phillies are definately the team to beat. But I still like this team’s chances!!!!!!
Mark Biles
February 17th, 2010
1:55 pm
I don’t think we’ll have to worry about a Mets resurgence displacing the Braves from a possible second place finish. The Mets pitching is certainly not as good as the Braves and with Francouer in RF, they’re no better off than the Braves with Melky in RF. I think we can finish second if we don’t have a lot of injuries.
Frank Robinson (Rockmart)
February 17th, 2010
1:59 pm
Filet-o-fish is good.
Hillbilly Deluxe
February 17th, 2010
2:01 pm
I’ve always been a fan of Nate McLouth. He’s no Hall Of Famer, but he’s a good, solid player and he’s a gamer. If memory serves, I made comments on here to that affect, last summer.
Knockahoma's Teepee
February 17th, 2010
2:08 pm
wind will blow good this year at Turner Field…..Braves will go to World Series and lose
fanofthebraves
February 17th, 2010
2:09 pm
I have never had a Filet-o-fish and who gives a damn about what Mike Vick likes. He can kiss my a.s.
WonderDawg
February 17th, 2010
2:10 pm
I’ll believer Chipper’s okay when I see him in the linup opening day, Mark. He injured his thumb while playing golf! Golf! It just illustrates how fragile he really is.
prattvillenolzfan
February 17th, 2010
2:11 pm
going to mickey d’s and ordering fish is like going to Captain D’s and ordering the chicken plate
Bravissimo
February 17th, 2010
2:11 pm
Filet o fish is ok but a DQ Double CB is better….right Sonny??
MCook
February 17th, 2010
2:15 pm
Word has it that Chipper hit the weight room hard this off season. Stay tuned…
Sonny Clusters
February 17th, 2010
2:15 pm
That’s not real fish. Fish are not square. Did anyone figure out what it’s called when you hit a hushpuppy with a bat? Let this Clusters weigh in on Chipper Jones . . . 230# . . . no, we really want to weigh in on moving him to first or to the American League. That would allow Glaus at third (already a fielding improvement). Chipper is going to miss a lot of games no matter where he is stationed and coming in off another thumb injury (golf sustained thumb injury) and weighing more than a sportswriter does not bode well.
P. Bull Terrier
February 17th, 2010
2:17 pm
I sure miss the days when the only question about the Braves was, “Which pitcher will win the Cy Young Award this year?”
JTH
February 17th, 2010
2:18 pm
PECOTA is a bunch of overrated hogwash designed by nerds who never suited up for a game in their lives.
Gary
February 17th, 2010
2:22 pm
I’m always amazed how supposed baseball fans like DW with absolutely no big league esperiece (did you even play little league ball?) can be so critical of Cox, yet talk to any professional player or coach and they will let you know in a hurry that Cox is one of the most respected managers in the game. The Nats, Marlins or Mets better than the Braves? Dont make me laugh. I’m pulling for Bobby to end his career once again on top.
siskel_god
February 17th, 2010
2:24 pm
I’m worried less about the infield than I am the outfield. If CJ or Glaus go down Martin can shift to either spot and be adequate and Omar is better than alot of starting second baseman. Hinske, IMO, is nothing more than an upgrade over Norton. I still see Prado and Omar being the primary backups in the infield. I know I’m beating a dead horse but Damon sure would look good in left with Nate and Heyward in center and right. Wagner doesn’t concern me because of Saito, with our depth in the minors we can always make a move. Plus I think Moylan can close as well. Be interesting to see how long it takes Freeman to make it to Gwinnett and if he continues to rise at his meteoric pace. I actually like this team more and more the closer spring gets, FW has shown he’s more than willing to go for it early in the season and make bold moves throughout the season.
Herschel Talker
February 17th, 2010
2:28 pm
MB:
You never get things like this right, and you know it.
HT
Balderdash
February 17th, 2010
2:29 pm
If Chipper hits and doesn’t sit. If Glaus hits and can play first. If Wagner can bounce back strong. If Heyward can put up Bob-Horner-rookie-year numbers without also breaking his wrist. That’s a lot of ifs, but if all that happens, they contend. If not, it could be one wild and crazy summer all over again … except Jim Varney’s dead.
Parker Pasestcatelli
February 17th, 2010
2:31 pm
A Filet-O-Fish is a dang fine hamburger.
Barry
February 17th, 2010
2:36 pm
A lot of things will have to go right for the Braves to finish 2nd. I think their pitching will be really good. I think Lowe will have a good year, and will make up for the loss of Vazquez, and if Hudson is healthy, this should be a good year for starting pitching. It is going to have to go right with Wagner. And its a bit more of a stretch hoping it will go well with Glaus. But if Glaus holds his own and Wagner is solid, and if Heyward is able to contribute and if Chipper is healthy and if McClouth does have a resurgent year, then this could be an interesting year. But I think all those things will have to break right for it to be a playoff year.
AndyC
February 17th, 2010
2:40 pm
Wow. PECOTA just crushed Matt Diaz. Is that guy ever going to get a chance to be an every day player? I think he has earned it.
RDM
February 17th, 2010
2:41 pm
My burning question is who are the leading candidates to be the Braves manager next year?
Tailback U
February 17th, 2010
2:44 pm
The closer we get to the beginning of the season the less I feel
optimistic. Unless the pitching is truly dominant we could end
up third or forth this year. We need a deal of significance
by June I believe . Hoping I am wrong but as has been said so
many things have to go right otherwise.
MCook
February 17th, 2010
2:44 pm
Do ya think mabye they grooming Glavine to be manager next year? Just askin…
PMC
February 17th, 2010
2:46 pm
Bobby is a terriffic boss. He’s the kind of guy you want to work for. There were times in the 90’s they should have done better than they did but the late 90’s and early 2000’s were a gradual erosion of talent and he had them in the playoffs many times when they had no business being there simply because he was the best manager in the NL. Larry Bowa and Bobby Valentine etc were owned by Bobby Cox.
Jesse Stone
February 17th, 2010
2:47 pm
Don’t say Fredi Gonzalez. Marlins fans are fed up with him. The Marlins scouting department deserves kudo for the Marlins overachieving, not the manager. How could you be a fan of the Marlins, knowing that the team is not spending it’s luxury tax influx on getting new talent.
PMC
February 17th, 2010
2:49 pm
This edition of the Braves will be plagued by the thing that generally always plagues the Braves…. they can’t score enough runs. They have guys that pitched thier behinds off last year and didn’t get results…. the same thing will happen this year because the other teams in the division Phillies, Marlins, Mets can just score more runs… It is pretty tough to believe in this lineup scoring runs consistantly though they should be better than last year. I’m really hoping for 90 wins.
collegeballfan
February 17th, 2010
2:51 pm
I see the Braves with 85 to 90 wins. I would be really hesitant to bring up Heyward this season.
OSCAR
February 17th, 2010
2:52 pm
first plus 56
bvillebaron
February 17th, 2010
3:00 pm
Aside from the fact that good pitching trumps good hitting, the Braves’ scored enough runs during the second half of last season to compete and I expect them to do so this season as well. All of the same players return, with the exception of LaRoche. I realize that Glaus is an injury quesion, but if healthy, the Braves won’t miss LaRoche’s power. McLouth and Prado will also be starting from day one. I think Chipper will have a better season even if it may not be up to his standards earlier in his career. The wild card is, of course, Heyward. If he can play as well as advertised, I for one am excited about the team’s offensive potential.
All I'm Saying Is...
February 17th, 2010
3:01 pm
Everybody, Bradley included, needs to calm down about Heyward. And if that is difficult for you, I have two words to help: Brad Komminsk. And two more words to grow on if the first two don’t hit the spot: Jeff Francoeur. Leave the kid alone, let him come to spring training to see how he handles the attention and then send him to AAA until late June.
The rest of our team is frankly put together with hope (that none of our graybeards get hurt), prayers (all is well with JJ), spackle (smooth over Escobar’s rough edges) and duct tape (over Bobby’s mouth so he can’t pinch hit with Norton or sit Prado for who knows why) but I do feel better at season’s start with our batting lineup (Nate, Diaz, Cabrera, Prado, Escobar, Chipper, McCann, and Glaus) this time around than I did last year with the no-hit, punchless instant outs known as Franceur, KJohnson, and Schafer who collectively shorten the game by three innings giving us virtually no chance to score.
LET’S GO BRAVES!
Go Bravos
February 17th, 2010
3:01 pm
Can’t wait, hope springs eternal. Great news re: Jurjeens’ shoulder, just hope the reports are accurate. And who truly does care about being “first”, is there any greater sign of needing a life? With that being said, 57th and could not be prouder, think I’ll call Mom.
Go Bravos
February 17th, 2010
3:02 pm
59th, the shame of it all.
JASon
February 17th, 2010
3:04 pm
We’ll take 20 hrs at first base. Can you imagine what a little power would have done for us last season?
Conyers Braves Fan
February 17th, 2010
3:05 pm
Mark: Do you think the Braves will have a realistic chance of getting a wild card spot even if they do finish second in the NL East? The NL West may be the strongest division this year. The Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies could be very good. Arizona will not be a pushover.
jmarable
February 17th, 2010
3:09 pm
heywood wont carry the team this year,maybe b hot 4 a while but u know major league pitching will start breaking off those nasty sliders and off speed pitches to cool his heels,so whats next?glause diaz.u know chipper will b hurt.we wont score and lose a lot of games 3-2,4-1 ,3-1.no speed,no power,we dont even have a 300 hitter.we suck offensively and we r 2yrs to late getting wagner.next to last place cause the marlins r gonna bring it this yr.middle relief will b an issue.a closer is no good without the lead Wren.
Chazs
February 17th, 2010
3:10 pm
I look for a bigger 2nd half than first.
Jordan Schaefer will be a regular, McClouth moved to the side and Heyward coming into his own.
I love to dream.
Some Sense
February 17th, 2010
3:14 pm
Mark,
I ordered a McFish during Lent a number of years ago. The lady at the window was, no lie, indignant, “We don’t have a McFish.” O. K., lady, how about a delicious filet-o-fish sandwich.
When we were kids in parochial school, we’d play Ash Wednesday by rubbing pencil lead across a desk and then sticking a wet finger in it.
Mark, you don’t know what fun you missed not growing up in the faith…or “the feeith” as the Irish priests would say it.
Herschel Talker
February 17th, 2010
3:18 pm
The PECOTA says that the Braves should…FIRE BOOBY COX
If it weren’t for Booby Cox, the Braves would have enough rings to fill Antonio Alfonseca’s fingers.
Falkor
February 17th, 2010
3:18 pm
As a 30-year Braves fan I understand why there is a pessimistic outlook for 2010, especially given the current playoff drought, but here is how I choose to look at it:
Why the will win: They have the same makeup as the 1991 Worst-to-First Bravos that we all “caught the fever” from: very young and very talented players all across the roster. I know I’m ahead of myself, but JJ and Hanson could be the next Hall of Fame duo that young Smoltz and young Glavine were. Hudson and Lowe are both very good veteran pitchers who will do well themselves, but also hasten the development of the young studs, ala Charlie Liebrant. Not to mention if Lowe actually is our 4th starter, is that not better than almost every other teams 4th?
Heyward is the main subject of the potential of our young lineup, but overlooked is the youth and MAJOR upside of Escobar, McCann, Prado, McClouth and the former #1 prospect Schaffer, not to mention Freddy Freeman. Yes Chipper will have injuries, Yes Glaus was a boring addition, Yes Wagner and Saito are a combined 80+ years old, but I cannot help but be very excited about the future of the Bravos.
Player Who Could Surprise:
The man I haven’t read one good thing about in 6 months: Kenshin Kawakami. The former “Cy Young” winner from Japan is a full year into pitching in a new League in a new country with a language barrier, pitching a different baseball to hitters he had never faced. I know I yelled at him through my TV as much as anyone else, but focusing on the positive I remember his best games being against the very best pitchers in MLB last year, who he beat almost all of. Coincidence, maybe, but to me the man was up to the biggest stages and the biggest challenges. With a full year under his belt who really knows how good he could actually be.
The Phillies are good, but I think the days of the World Series going through Atlanta could be around the corner again…
Mark, what do you think?
Matt
February 17th, 2010
3:29 pm
So if Heyward produces like a MLB all star as a rookie, Glaus has the best year he’s had in 3-5 years, Chipper plays more like 28 yr. old instead of a 38 yr. old, none of our pitchers get hurt, our alzheimer aged bullpen produces like they used to then we will be successful?????? Don’t like those odds.
Fed Up With Wren (Again)
February 17th, 2010
3:37 pm
Me either, Matt. I’m fairly sure the Braves will finish in front of the Nationals, but that’s about it.
Sonny Clusters
February 17th, 2010
3:44 pm
Winning a division sign is not a championship won. We was thinking that’s like entering the primary and losing the election. It’s like making the cut and not shooting under par the rest of the way. It’s like getting swept by the wild card team because they are hot and you are not. The Braves PR department has done a wonderful job of selling these Braves as champions . . . and they were champions when they won the pennant and/or won the WS. Other than that, they were one of the several teams that competed for a shot at the championship series – and on too many occasions they did not compete well. Chipper is coming to camp fat and will bring his clubs and rod and reel and will be too tender to participate in camp and will start out as we have seen before. What has changed?
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
3:45 pm
You know, Some Sense, I grew up in Northern Kentucky, and the Filet-o-Fish was created by a McDonald’s owner across the river in Cincinnati who saw his business plummet every Friday — this was when every Friday was meatless — because his clientele was so prominently Roman Catholic.
Matt W
February 17th, 2010
3:46 pm
I reserve judgement on how well each player might or might not peform.I do however think the team will have a better record than 2009 and a shot in the playoffs.I like the potential chemistry this team has as a whole.Veterans are in the right areas of the team, for future teachings of rookies and as mentors.
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
3:47 pm
Sonny, I inquired about the hush-puppies-with-a-bat thing, but you ignored me. What do you call it?
Matt W
February 17th, 2010
3:52 pm
If you want to hear an interview with insight to the braves farm system with Goldstien then go to atlantabaseballtalk (great group of guys) Steve, Hammy and Curtis
Shaun
February 17th, 2010
3:55 pm
By “resurgent” I think Goldstein means they are contenders again after down years in 2006-2008.
All I'm Saying Is...
February 17th, 2010
3:56 pm
Everybody, Bradley included, needs to calm down about Heyward. And if that is difficult for you, I have two words to help: Brad Komminsk. And two more words to grow on if the first two don’t hit the spot: Jeff Francoeur. Leave the kid alone, let him come to spring training to see how he handles the attention and then send him to AAA until late June.
The rest of our team is frankly put together with hope (that none of our graybeards get hurt), prayers (all is well with JJ—our prayers appear to have been answered), spackle (smooth over Escobar’s rough edges) and duct tape (over Bobby’s mouth so he can’t pinch hit with Norton or sit Prado for who knows why) but I do feel better at season’s start with our batting lineup (Nate, Diaz, Cabrera, Prado, Escobar, Chipper, McCann, and Glaus) this time around than I did last year with the no-hit, punchless instant outs known as Franceur, KJohnson, and Schafer who collectively use to shorten the game by three innings giving us virtually no chance to score.
This time around we get off to a solid beginning to the season and maintain it since Hanson will be with us from the get-go as well as having Prado and Nate at season’s start too. We need our pitching to stay consistent and for everyone to forget the last ten games of last season.
LET’S GO BRAVES!
Sonny Clusters
February 17th, 2010
3:58 pm
We call that filet-o-fish.
Actually, we was hoping somebody would guess it. They was some shoes called Hush Puppies awhile back. Not sure if they still make them. Coach had a pair but they was stained with tobacco juice from our trip up to Clemson. Battered and Fried. Fried and battered.
Shaun
February 17th, 2010
4:02 pm
All I’m Saying Is…, A vast majority of players who have command of the strikezone like Heyward, played like Heyward at all those minor league levels mostly as a teenager and were regarded as highly by scouts as Heyward is do not flop in the majors. Odds are he’s going to be a very good player if not a superstar. Maybe not right off the bat, but within a few years. He’ll probably be noticeably above average right off the bat. But anything can happen.
Francoeur and Komminsk were much different players. Heyward’s minor league BB:K ratio is a lot closer to 1:1 than those guys. He gets on base/avoids outs, hits for power, hits for average and commands the strikezone as well as any prospect you’ll see. That’s a huge difference from Francoeur and Komminsk.
Sonny Clusters
February 17th, 2010
4:02 pm
We was thinking that finishing second in the division means no little sign again. Second in the division means finishing at least fourth or worse in the regular season. Getting dusted in five in the playoffs is pretty ugly.
Breaking News! Tiger Woods is talking. Stay tuned for some whimpering and some crying and some requests for forgiveness. Tiger looks a little bit below par in those pictures.
Sonny Clusters
February 17th, 2010
4:06 pm
Clusters babies are all-around baby athletes when born. They can run and throw and hit a little bit. As Clusters babies grow they develop hand eye coordination and a sweet swing. Dave Justice had a Clusters-like swing but he was no Clusters. Just similar. We was thinking if the Braves had a Clusters they could run again and steal bases and stretch singles into doubles and score from first or second every time. Having a fast player means nothing if Bobby won’t let him run.
Wren Hater
February 17th, 2010
4:13 pm
Regardless of where the Braves finish in 2010, inept, clueless Braves General Manager Frank “Wrong Again” Wren will finish DEAD LAST among MLB GMs.
Shaun
February 17th, 2010
4:14 pm
I have a challenge: Name one prospect who put up similar numbers to the ones Heyward put up at the same levels of the minors at similar ages, who was rated the number one prospect by Baseball America and who flopped in the majors to the level of a Komminsk or a Francoeur.
By numbers, I mean numbers that matter; numbers that actually tell us about his performance, not context-dependent numbers like RBI and Runs (which depend greatly on teammates).
I’m talking batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, walk rate, strikeout rate, walk-to-strikeout ratio, Isolated Power, etc.
JabboRockefeller
February 17th, 2010
4:23 pm
Wish the Bravos would install a “dunk Frank Wren” tank somewhere on the Turner Field premises. I have a feeling that by season’s end, the line for dunking privileges could be rather long…
Todd
February 17th, 2010
4:30 pm
Mark-
I remember when you used to write your own columns. Have you been directed by AJC to merely report on others columns? If I wanted to know what someobody else thought about Atlanta sports (ESPN, SI, etc.) I would just go to that website directly.
PLEASE STOP USING OTHER’S OPINIONS as a jumping off point for your columns. YOU are RENDERING THE AJC IRRELEVANT.
All I'm Saying Is...
February 17th, 2010
4:31 pm
Shaun: With respect to Heyward vs. Komminsk or Francoeur: From your mouth and letters on this blog to God’s ear, my friend. As much as anybody, I want Heyward to be the second coming of Hank Aaron but I’ll settle for a (healthy) David Justice. I just don’t want him to be rushed to the Bigs.
This team can win the wild-card and do some damage. And if we’re really lucky we can pull off a 1960 style upset of the NYYankees in the Series.
LET’S GO BRAVES!
Walker, Texas Ranger
February 17th, 2010
4:37 pm
Justice was Cluster like in his complaints of the fans during 95 Series. Cluster was critical of Parkview fans at one time and ended up getting banned from the Dairy Queen for 1 month. Sonny never criticized the Panther fans again.
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
4:43 pm
A little-known fact about David Justice (and this doesn’t involve the Filet-o-Fish): His best friend was from Maysville, Ky. Know who else is from Maysville, Ky.? Rosemary Clooney, for one. Yours truly, for another.
chris
February 17th, 2010
4:44 pm
The intangible may by Bobby Cox. The team may be a bit more inspired this year to play a bit harder and remain focused throughout the entire year to ensure No. 6 goes out at least with a playoff birth if not more. Talent wise there are serious questions but lets hope the heart of this team plays beyond our talent. If we get lucky with Glaus and Wagner we have the starting pitching to compete. We still need to move an outfielder and get us a big bat if Heyward is not ready.IF chipper is right and he’s a Fred McGriff in the wings lets REALLY pray he’s ready this year. My gut says ESPN is right but my heart hopes Bobby’s last season with the Braves will be the most memorable and renew the magic of the 1990s and early 2000s and see this team go all the way once again.
Shaun
February 17th, 2010
4:45 pm
All I’m Saying Is…, I don’t think he’ll be in the majors until he’s the best rightfield option for the Braves, which may be this spring or may be June. The odds of him becoming something like Francoeur or Komminsk are not very high, if you consider everything.
Granted, he’s not likely to be a superstar right away so I hope fans don’t get on him if he’s merely average or slightly above his first season.
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
4:53 pm
I’m not sure motivational stuff — like this being a manager’s final season — works in baseball. It’s hard to stay fired up for six months.
Sonny Clusters
February 17th, 2010
4:58 pm
Being like Jeff wouldn’t be so bad if he was big and strong and can throw and hit. Being uncoachable would be a bad thing. Ond day Coach just walked off and didn’t come back. We was wondering if we’d see him again. He got over it and was in shop class the next day but he was sore that you-know-who wouldn’t take a pitch. We was in possession of a David Justice signed baseball one time and kept it in a case made for displaying a baseball. David Justice should have remained a Brave. Marquis, too. Dye, too. They is more but it makes us sad to think of ‘em all.
Sonny Clusters
February 17th, 2010
4:59 pm
Bobby might try a little motivational stuff before a five game series. Going in flat and staying flat seems to be the problem.
Asheville Dawg
February 17th, 2010
5:03 pm
The reason flat roofs are bad is that the rainwater always find the hole and leak. That is what the Braves feel like to me-a flat roof. As the 162 game schedule will show that there are so many potential leaks that playing at .500 maybe what happens. Graybeard closers, no one at first base again, depending on Chipper for 150 games, that no starters get hurt, well do you believe in miracles! we are two or three injuries away from another long summer,just waiting for football to start.
Hillbilly Deluxe
February 17th, 2010
5:08 pm
So David Justice and Rosemary Clooney were best friends?
MitchC
February 17th, 2010
5:17 pm
Mark, I haven’t heard of Baseball Prospectus predictions, but I do have The Sporting News 2010 Baseball Yearbook magazine. That publication has the Braves picked second in the East, with the Cubs as the wild card.
Unless they are beset by serious injuries, one would have to concede a rather easy win of the NL East to the Phillies. If Halladay is Halladay, and Hamels rebounds, I don’t see anyone seriously challenging them with that lineup.
That having been said, I do think that the Braves can seriously challenge for the wild card, if we stay healthy. Yes, we know Chipper will be injured for 30 or 40 games, and yes, our bullpen is old, and we have to worry about Wagner and Saito, but, if our starting pitching is healthy, we have a top notch rotation. One would have to figure Lowe to shave a half a run to a run off his ERA. Hopefully Tommy Hanson can avoid a sophmore slump.
I think the Braves can get close to 90 wins, and seriously challenge for the wild card.
Do you agree, Mark?
uberVU - social comments
February 17th, 2010
5:18 pm
Social comments and analytics for this post…
This post was mentioned on Twitter by MarkBradleyAJC: Baseball Prospectus sees the Atlanta Braves finishing second to Philly in the East. http://bit.ly/9Vo1jk…
JabboRockefeller
February 17th, 2010
5:38 pm
Ol’ Waddell says the Thrashers ain’t moving.
Anybody from Winnepeg who’s heard exactly what date the move will commence?
JabboRockefeller
February 17th, 2010
5:42 pm
I sure get things balled-up. I thought David Justice and Rosemary’s baby were best friends…
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
5:43 pm
Speaking of Rosemary Clooney, her nephew George used to jump center for the Augusta Panthers. Haven’t heard anything about him since.
JabboRockefeller
February 17th, 2010
5:47 pm
Bet he was the best 5′ 6″ center in the state….
Tampa
February 17th, 2010
6:20 pm
Nice for you to tell everybody that its Ash Wednesday — As busy as our schedules get, we shouldn’t forget the “big things” in our lives. Now — hug your Wife and kids and you will get a super “gold star”.
Harry the Hat
February 17th, 2010
7:06 pm
I’m afraid that I can’t see the Braves being competitive enough to finish higher than 3rd, maybe even 4th in the division. They’re going to be pretty crappy, with some seriously overpaid players.
No season tickets for me, please.
Jon Contract
February 17th, 2010
7:35 pm
So many question marks about this Atlanta team, Everywhere you look you see potential but also possible busts.
One thing I would bet on. The players really give it the old college try one last time for Cox.
mudcat
February 17th, 2010
7:36 pm
Let’s see. We’re assuming Chipper has a bounce back year. We’re assuming Glaus can recover his magic from 3-4 years ago. We’re assuming JJ and Hanson continue pitching great and that Lowe, KK and Hudson all have a much better season than last year. We’re assuming that Wagner and Saito can stay healthy and fight old age all year. We’re assuming that the rest of the bullpen will be as effective this year as last. We’re assuming that McCann, Escober and Prado can be as effective or better than last year. We’re assuming that a 21 year old rookie will be our offensive salvation this season. Well, I’m assuming that if all these things happen, we’ll finally make the playoffs again. But if any of these assumptions don’t happen, I’m assuming this could be another long season.
Jon Contract
February 17th, 2010
7:38 pm
Thank God JJ’s arm is ok
That would have really had the pessimists in a frenzy.
chamblee dawg
February 17th, 2010
7:49 pm
106th!!!!
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
February 17th, 2010
7:51 pm
agree with jon contract- one last run for the skipper!! I think we’ll have a slow start but gain momentum before/after all star break. biggest concern is not the phillies but the mets..after all those injuries last year..i believe everyone will be healthy this year (hope not)
Jt
February 17th, 2010
7:51 pm
What’s wrong with Diaz, McLouth, and Melky in the outfield?
Jon Contract
February 17th, 2010
7:53 pm
Did Garrett Anderson retire?
I think he could still give an AL team some quality AB’s
Jon Contract
February 17th, 2010
8:41 pm
Dogs taking it to the Vols so far 25-19 1st half
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
8:52 pm
Garrett Anderson hasn’t retired.
Jesse Stone
February 17th, 2010
9:04 pm
First overall pick- great numbers in minors- still waiting in the majors…….Delmon Young
Jesse Stone
February 17th, 2010
9:05 pm
jt- Melky is what’s wrong with that outfield.
JabboRockefeller
February 17th, 2010
9:15 pm
I’ll bet Chipper will play a little more dinged-up than in years past. He’s gonna give all he’s got for Bobby.
It’s now illegal to tar and feather folks and dump’um at the county line. Wren is a lucky man.
Robert
February 17th, 2010
10:19 pm
Why They Might Win – If Heyward is the next Chipper Jones, while Chipper Jones goes back to being Chipper Jones, and if Billy Wagner is still an elite level closer, and if Tim Hudson returns to his career best form while the other starters all progress, then the team might be good enough to make the playoffs and then run the table three times in a row without requiring any strategic decision making.
Why They Might Not Win and Probably Wont – This is a very good team, but not a no-brainer team. This team will almost certainly need adept in-game decision making to maximize its production and win total. If that’s the case, we are sunk the moment Cox steps onto the field at Disney
Robert
February 17th, 2010
10:26 pm
“yet talk to any professional player or coach and they will let you know in a hurry that Cox is one of the most respected managers in the game”
Lemme ask you a question – If your chief rival, who would almost certainly beat you soundly all other things being equal, gives you a chance to beat them by employing an idiot to manage the team – do you point out their mistake or do you nod your head up and down, say nice respectful things, and snicker to yourself?
Almost all baseball people say nothing but good stuff about anyone else in the game. That makes sense. You dont want to alienate yourself from what is a big time old-boys club, and you dont want to fire up or help your opponents. How many times have we heard managers defend players who they knew were lying about steroid use and who subsequantly got busted?
Listening to what baseball people SAY gives one little insight. Watching what they DO tells the real story. Like watching all those free agents who tell the Atlanta media blah blah blah about how much they’d love to play for Cox who is such a great old grandad type of guy go sign somewhere else.
Try this. Ask any major or minor league franchise what they’d actually give us for Cox in a trade. If anyone offered more than a pair of musty socks, I;d be shocked
Matt W
February 17th, 2010
10:47 pm
Thats purdy harsh Robert.I feel differently my friend ,”Bobby” is a heck of a coach!If you were to research his past you would see that it was Bobby who made us great and believed in the players he drafted and help trade for.Yes, it is players that perform but its the leader that positions the pawns and if it were any other manager who took the helm we would not have had the great run or might not have even made it to the playoffs.I respect your opinion Robert ,you either like Bobby or you dont,IMO i will cherish every moment of his legacy and barks from the dugout.He will be missed by this Braves fan!
OtisWasSafe
February 17th, 2010
11:35 pm
Kevin Goldstein was also just on a local podcast (http://www.atlantabaseballtalk.com/?p=212) where he goes into more depth about what he wrote for ESPN Insiders. Pretty interesting interview . . .
Robert
February 17th, 2010
11:37 pm
“If you were to research his past you would see that it was Bobby who made us great and believed in the players he drafted and help trade for.”
I have NEVER said that Cox didnt do an acceptable job as GM.
The leader positions the pieces, like you said. And he has repeatedly misplaced the pieces at key times. That and/or his teams have been very unmotivated at playoff time.
Its having Wohlers in the game in the 8th in 1996 WS Game 4.
Its having Maddux start the 8th in 1999 WS Game 1. And repeating the mistake with Glavine, letting him go too long, in game 3. It’s in having Danny Bautista out there with the assigned task of fielding baseballs in a WS game. It’s bringing in Liebrandt to face Puckett.
Its having a team just not show up against the Padres in 98, and then in basically every playoff series we’ve managed to make since 2001. And then having Reitsma pitch in a close game with the season on the line
Cox did ok when he wasnt in the dugout. But when it comes to in-game strategy, which is far and away a manger’s most important responsibility, then I dont think you or I or anyone else could name a weaker perforemer than Bobby
Who else lets a .200 hitter bat cleanup for 100-plus games? Who else consistantly sends in a .050 hitter as a pinch hitter in key late game situations?
The man has had circles run around him by every manager he has ever faced who was armed with a team even CLOSE to being as talented as his except for two names. Valentine and Hargrove.
The 1995 World Series was a fluke. The fact that the regular season was shortened meant the pitchers werent as fatigued as usual in the playoffs. Big edge to whoever had the best starters, which was the Braves. The pitchers ran the table three times running, culminating in a Glavine/Wohlers one-hitter in the clinching WS Game 6.
Strategically, that series and the 1999 NLCS against Valentine and his Mets was like watching a spoof of Mad Magazine’s Spy vs Spy
The 1996 and 1999 World Series were like watching Bozo the Clown matching wits with Albert Einstein
Dont overread the reference to Einstein. Torre is a good manager – certainly not great, but above average. In COMPARISON to Cox, he looks like Einstein.
Of course, when it comes to managing a baseball game, in comparison to Cox, the leftover slice of pizza in the back of my refrigerator looks like Isaac Newton
Robert
February 17th, 2010
11:42 pm
“you either like Bobby or you dont,IMO i will cherish every moment of his legacy and barks from the dugout.He will be missed by this Braves fan!”
I dont dislike Bobby as a person. I’m sure he could entertain for hours because he has seen a lot of baseball. And I’d let him give the kids horsey rides at the fair any day of the week.
But liking a guy as a crazy ole grandpa figure and putting him in charge of managing my favorite baseball team are worlds apart
And why exactly do you enjoy Cox’s barks from the dugout. If there is one singularly useless thing a manager or player can do in a baseball game, it is to argue with the umps. It’s their game to call. Arguing onyl irritates them and uses up time one could be investing in other ways to help one’s tem
Watching Bobby Cox turn various shades of red and blue arguing balls and strikes while making facial grimaces that are difficult if not impossible to reproduce if you possess a full allocation of chromosomes is to me the ultimate exmaple and demostration of his stupidity and uselessness, nay, counterproductivity, to his team
If the Braves play well enough to win “X” number of games in any given season, then, if they are managed by Cox, the best they can hope for is to actually triumph in “X-10″
Robert
February 18th, 2010
12:13 am
“if it were any other manager who took the helm we would not have had the great run or might not have even made it to the playoffs”
Are you telling me that in your opinion a team with an in-prime Maddux Glavine and Smoltz could not win a division against all of four other teams, any two or even three of which couldnt even finish .500 in any gioven year, unless Cox was managing?
We’ll ignore the fact that that idea is ridiculous, and concentrate on the fact that it is totally insulting to the talents of the great players on those teams
Those teams didnt make the playoffs BECAUSE of Cox. They made the playoffs IN SPITE of Cox
hotshot
February 18th, 2010
12:19 am
FIRST
hotshot
February 18th, 2010
12:20 am
awwwwwwwwwwwwwwww DAMNIT
Jeff
February 19th, 2010
2:53 am
As a lifetime Braves fan, I will say this: while we certainly got spoiled in the 1990s, and we should certainly accept that we can’t duplicate what those teams did year-in and year-out (sign All-Stars in their prime like Maddux, Neagle, McGriff, etc.), we should CERTAINLY expect more than 85-win seasons.
The point I keep coming back to is this: throughout the late 80s and early 90s, our minor leagues produced a bumper crop of talent — Chipper, Javy, Avery, Glavine, Mercker, Wohlers, Hunter, Blauser, Justice, Gant, Lemke, Dye, Klesko, Tarasco, Schmidt, etc.
Now, aside from Francoeur and McCann a few years ago, Hanson last year and Heyward this year… where is that stream of talent? I think something is wrong that we cannot develop, in our Braves farm system, the next Albert Pujols or Jason Bay or Josh Beckett or Roy Halladay or Hanley Ramirez or Evan Longoria or Carl Crawford or Justin Upton or Zack Greinke or Tim Lincecum or Ryan Howard.
Until we can get our farm system cranking out MAJOR LEAGUE READY 23-year-olds after 5 years in the minors, we will be an average team, because management won’t spend for free agent superstars like they did 15 years ago.
I’m looking at an 84-78 season, I’m afraid, and another year of missing the playoffs.
Alan
February 20th, 2010
2:51 am
Do you even follow the Braves Jeff? They have the #1 prospect in all of baseball and he’s only 20 years old.
cantondawg
February 21st, 2010
3:33 pm
I’m really excited about this team. We have great young starting pitching (Hanson, Jurrjens) good veteran pitching (Hudson, Lowe) that i think will carry us this year. Yunel Escobar, Mclouth, and Mccann should be all-stars this year. Keys to this season to me are if Chipper rebounds and the play of Troy Glaus and Heyward. If both have a big year then i see our playoff drought ending.