Bradley’s Buzz: Baseball Prospectus has Braves finishing 2nd
Would you remember Nate McLouth if he signed a baseball for you? (AJC file photo)
I’m a little confused. In his ESPN.com Insiders preview of the National League East, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus describes the Braves as “resurgent.” (Link requires registration.) But here’s the weird part: BP’s PECOTA ratings — no relation to Bill Pecota, a Brave of no great distinction in the ’90s — project the Braves’ record as 83-79.
The 2009 Braves finished 86-76. That’s resurgence?
PECOTA puts the Braves second in the division, five games behind the Nationals. (Ha! Just seeing if you’re paying attention. Behind the Phillies, natch.) Goldstein offers this breakdown:
Why They Might Win: Jason Heyward is the top position player prospect in the game, might be the right fielder on opening day and one of those rare talents who could make a big-league impact from day one. Their rotation could be outstanding, as Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens are both good young pitchers who could be even better this year — while the club is convinced Tim Hudson will return to form after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Why They Might Not Win: If Heyward isn’t ready, their corner outfield situation is pretty sad. Also — do you really want to put faith in a team that has Billy Wagner closing and Troy Glaus at first base? Good for you, because few others do.
Player Who Could Surprise: After slumping a bit in the batting average department last year, PECOTA projects a nice rebound for Nate McLouth — with 22 home runs, 24 stolen bases and a career-high .361 on-base percentage. That’s nearly All-Star territory.
Player Who Could Disappoint: PECOTA believes that a Troy Glaus/Eric Hinske combination at first base could produce 20-plus home runs, but also a combined slugging percentage that’s still under .400. The Braves have yet to find anything close to a replacement for Mark Teixeira, and after all of the talent they sent to Texas for him, Atlanta fans probably don’t want to be reminded of that.
Interesting that Goldstein mentions McLouth. Nobody around here seems to say much about him one way or another, which is kind of strange given that he arrived from Pittsburgh last June being touted as an All-Star center fielder. I wouldn’t write him off just yet. (Then again, I wouldn’t write off Derek Lowe, either, but the Braves themselves seem to have done that.)
Me, I think the Phillies will regret trading Cliff Lee and not having a closer other than Brad Lidge. They could regress. But I’d be wary of the Florida Marlins. Even if PECOTA sees them as an 81-81 club, I like the look of these Fish.
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126 comments Add your comment
MCook
February 17th, 2010
2:44 pm
Do ya think mabye they grooming Glavine to be manager next year? Just askin…
PMC
February 17th, 2010
2:46 pm
Bobby is a terriffic boss. He’s the kind of guy you want to work for. There were times in the 90’s they should have done better than they did but the late 90’s and early 2000’s were a gradual erosion of talent and he had them in the playoffs many times when they had no business being there simply because he was the best manager in the NL. Larry Bowa and Bobby Valentine etc were owned by Bobby Cox.
Jesse Stone
February 17th, 2010
2:47 pm
Don’t say Fredi Gonzalez. Marlins fans are fed up with him. The Marlins scouting department deserves kudo for the Marlins overachieving, not the manager. How could you be a fan of the Marlins, knowing that the team is not spending it’s luxury tax influx on getting new talent.
PMC
February 17th, 2010
2:49 pm
This edition of the Braves will be plagued by the thing that generally always plagues the Braves…. they can’t score enough runs. They have guys that pitched thier behinds off last year and didn’t get results…. the same thing will happen this year because the other teams in the division Phillies, Marlins, Mets can just score more runs… It is pretty tough to believe in this lineup scoring runs consistantly though they should be better than last year. I’m really hoping for 90 wins.
collegeballfan
February 17th, 2010
2:51 pm
I see the Braves with 85 to 90 wins. I would be really hesitant to bring up Heyward this season.
OSCAR
February 17th, 2010
2:52 pm
first plus 56
bvillebaron
February 17th, 2010
3:00 pm
Aside from the fact that good pitching trumps good hitting, the Braves’ scored enough runs during the second half of last season to compete and I expect them to do so this season as well. All of the same players return, with the exception of LaRoche. I realize that Glaus is an injury quesion, but if healthy, the Braves won’t miss LaRoche’s power. McLouth and Prado will also be starting from day one. I think Chipper will have a better season even if it may not be up to his standards earlier in his career. The wild card is, of course, Heyward. If he can play as well as advertised, I for one am excited about the team’s offensive potential.
All I'm Saying Is...
February 17th, 2010
3:01 pm
Everybody, Bradley included, needs to calm down about Heyward. And if that is difficult for you, I have two words to help: Brad Komminsk. And two more words to grow on if the first two don’t hit the spot: Jeff Francoeur. Leave the kid alone, let him come to spring training to see how he handles the attention and then send him to AAA until late June.
The rest of our team is frankly put together with hope (that none of our graybeards get hurt), prayers (all is well with JJ), spackle (smooth over Escobar’s rough edges) and duct tape (over Bobby’s mouth so he can’t pinch hit with Norton or sit Prado for who knows why) but I do feel better at season’s start with our batting lineup (Nate, Diaz, Cabrera, Prado, Escobar, Chipper, McCann, and Glaus) this time around than I did last year with the no-hit, punchless instant outs known as Franceur, KJohnson, and Schafer who collectively shorten the game by three innings giving us virtually no chance to score.
LET’S GO BRAVES!
Go Bravos
February 17th, 2010
3:01 pm
Can’t wait, hope springs eternal. Great news re: Jurjeens’ shoulder, just hope the reports are accurate. And who truly does care about being “first”, is there any greater sign of needing a life? With that being said, 57th and could not be prouder, think I’ll call Mom.
Go Bravos
February 17th, 2010
3:02 pm
59th, the shame of it all.
JASon
February 17th, 2010
3:04 pm
We’ll take 20 hrs at first base. Can you imagine what a little power would have done for us last season?
Conyers Braves Fan
February 17th, 2010
3:05 pm
Mark: Do you think the Braves will have a realistic chance of getting a wild card spot even if they do finish second in the NL East? The NL West may be the strongest division this year. The Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies could be very good. Arizona will not be a pushover.
jmarable
February 17th, 2010
3:09 pm
heywood wont carry the team this year,maybe b hot 4 a while but u know major league pitching will start breaking off those nasty sliders and off speed pitches to cool his heels,so whats next?glause diaz.u know chipper will b hurt.we wont score and lose a lot of games 3-2,4-1 ,3-1.no speed,no power,we dont even have a 300 hitter.we suck offensively and we r 2yrs to late getting wagner.next to last place cause the marlins r gonna bring it this yr.middle relief will b an issue.a closer is no good without the lead Wren.
Chazs
February 17th, 2010
3:10 pm
I look for a bigger 2nd half than first.
Jordan Schaefer will be a regular, McClouth moved to the side and Heyward coming into his own.
I love to dream.
Some Sense
February 17th, 2010
3:14 pm
Mark,
I ordered a McFish during Lent a number of years ago. The lady at the window was, no lie, indignant, “We don’t have a McFish.” O. K., lady, how about a delicious filet-o-fish sandwich.
When we were kids in parochial school, we’d play Ash Wednesday by rubbing pencil lead across a desk and then sticking a wet finger in it.
Mark, you don’t know what fun you missed not growing up in the faith…or “the feeith” as the Irish priests would say it.
Herschel Talker
February 17th, 2010
3:18 pm
The PECOTA says that the Braves should…FIRE BOOBY COX
If it weren’t for Booby Cox, the Braves would have enough rings to fill Antonio Alfonseca’s fingers.
Falkor
February 17th, 2010
3:18 pm
As a 30-year Braves fan I understand why there is a pessimistic outlook for 2010, especially given the current playoff drought, but here is how I choose to look at it:
Why the will win: They have the same makeup as the 1991 Worst-to-First Bravos that we all “caught the fever” from: very young and very talented players all across the roster. I know I’m ahead of myself, but JJ and Hanson could be the next Hall of Fame duo that young Smoltz and young Glavine were. Hudson and Lowe are both very good veteran pitchers who will do well themselves, but also hasten the development of the young studs, ala Charlie Liebrant. Not to mention if Lowe actually is our 4th starter, is that not better than almost every other teams 4th?
Heyward is the main subject of the potential of our young lineup, but overlooked is the youth and MAJOR upside of Escobar, McCann, Prado, McClouth and the former #1 prospect Schaffer, not to mention Freddy Freeman. Yes Chipper will have injuries, Yes Glaus was a boring addition, Yes Wagner and Saito are a combined 80+ years old, but I cannot help but be very excited about the future of the Bravos.
Player Who Could Surprise:
The man I haven’t read one good thing about in 6 months: Kenshin Kawakami. The former “Cy Young” winner from Japan is a full year into pitching in a new League in a new country with a language barrier, pitching a different baseball to hitters he had never faced. I know I yelled at him through my TV as much as anyone else, but focusing on the positive I remember his best games being against the very best pitchers in MLB last year, who he beat almost all of. Coincidence, maybe, but to me the man was up to the biggest stages and the biggest challenges. With a full year under his belt who really knows how good he could actually be.
The Phillies are good, but I think the days of the World Series going through Atlanta could be around the corner again…
Mark, what do you think?
Matt
February 17th, 2010
3:29 pm
So if Heyward produces like a MLB all star as a rookie, Glaus has the best year he’s had in 3-5 years, Chipper plays more like 28 yr. old instead of a 38 yr. old, none of our pitchers get hurt, our alzheimer aged bullpen produces like they used to then we will be successful?????? Don’t like those odds.
Fed Up With Wren (Again)
February 17th, 2010
3:37 pm
Me either, Matt. I’m fairly sure the Braves will finish in front of the Nationals, but that’s about it.
Sonny Clusters
February 17th, 2010
3:44 pm
Winning a division sign is not a championship won. We was thinking that’s like entering the primary and losing the election. It’s like making the cut and not shooting under par the rest of the way. It’s like getting swept by the wild card team because they are hot and you are not. The Braves PR department has done a wonderful job of selling these Braves as champions . . . and they were champions when they won the pennant and/or won the WS. Other than that, they were one of the several teams that competed for a shot at the championship series – and on too many occasions they did not compete well. Chipper is coming to camp fat and will bring his clubs and rod and reel and will be too tender to participate in camp and will start out as we have seen before. What has changed?
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
3:45 pm
You know, Some Sense, I grew up in Northern Kentucky, and the Filet-o-Fish was created by a McDonald’s owner across the river in Cincinnati who saw his business plummet every Friday — this was when every Friday was meatless — because his clientele was so prominently Roman Catholic.
Matt W
February 17th, 2010
3:46 pm
I reserve judgement on how well each player might or might not peform.I do however think the team will have a better record than 2009 and a shot in the playoffs.I like the potential chemistry this team has as a whole.Veterans are in the right areas of the team, for future teachings of rookies and as mentors.
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
3:47 pm
Sonny, I inquired about the hush-puppies-with-a-bat thing, but you ignored me. What do you call it?
Matt W
February 17th, 2010
3:52 pm
If you want to hear an interview with insight to the braves farm system with Goldstien then go to atlantabaseballtalk (great group of guys) Steve, Hammy and Curtis
Shaun
February 17th, 2010
3:55 pm
By “resurgent” I think Goldstein means they are contenders again after down years in 2006-2008.
All I'm Saying Is...
February 17th, 2010
3:56 pm
Everybody, Bradley included, needs to calm down about Heyward. And if that is difficult for you, I have two words to help: Brad Komminsk. And two more words to grow on if the first two don’t hit the spot: Jeff Francoeur. Leave the kid alone, let him come to spring training to see how he handles the attention and then send him to AAA until late June.
The rest of our team is frankly put together with hope (that none of our graybeards get hurt), prayers (all is well with JJ—our prayers appear to have been answered), spackle (smooth over Escobar’s rough edges) and duct tape (over Bobby’s mouth so he can’t pinch hit with Norton or sit Prado for who knows why) but I do feel better at season’s start with our batting lineup (Nate, Diaz, Cabrera, Prado, Escobar, Chipper, McCann, and Glaus) this time around than I did last year with the no-hit, punchless instant outs known as Franceur, KJohnson, and Schafer who collectively use to shorten the game by three innings giving us virtually no chance to score.
This time around we get off to a solid beginning to the season and maintain it since Hanson will be with us from the get-go as well as having Prado and Nate at season’s start too. We need our pitching to stay consistent and for everyone to forget the last ten games of last season.
LET’S GO BRAVES!
Sonny Clusters
February 17th, 2010
3:58 pm
We call that filet-o-fish.
Actually, we was hoping somebody would guess it. They was some shoes called Hush Puppies awhile back. Not sure if they still make them. Coach had a pair but they was stained with tobacco juice from our trip up to Clemson. Battered and Fried. Fried and battered.
Shaun
February 17th, 2010
4:02 pm
All I’m Saying Is…, A vast majority of players who have command of the strikezone like Heyward, played like Heyward at all those minor league levels mostly as a teenager and were regarded as highly by scouts as Heyward is do not flop in the majors. Odds are he’s going to be a very good player if not a superstar. Maybe not right off the bat, but within a few years. He’ll probably be noticeably above average right off the bat. But anything can happen.
Francoeur and Komminsk were much different players. Heyward’s minor league BB:K ratio is a lot closer to 1:1 than those guys. He gets on base/avoids outs, hits for power, hits for average and commands the strikezone as well as any prospect you’ll see. That’s a huge difference from Francoeur and Komminsk.
Sonny Clusters
February 17th, 2010
4:02 pm
We was thinking that finishing second in the division means no little sign again. Second in the division means finishing at least fourth or worse in the regular season. Getting dusted in five in the playoffs is pretty ugly.
Breaking News! Tiger Woods is talking. Stay tuned for some whimpering and some crying and some requests for forgiveness. Tiger looks a little bit below par in those pictures.
Sonny Clusters
February 17th, 2010
4:06 pm
Clusters babies are all-around baby athletes when born. They can run and throw and hit a little bit. As Clusters babies grow they develop hand eye coordination and a sweet swing. Dave Justice had a Clusters-like swing but he was no Clusters. Just similar. We was thinking if the Braves had a Clusters they could run again and steal bases and stretch singles into doubles and score from first or second every time. Having a fast player means nothing if Bobby won’t let him run.
Wren Hater
February 17th, 2010
4:13 pm
Regardless of where the Braves finish in 2010, inept, clueless Braves General Manager Frank “Wrong Again” Wren will finish DEAD LAST among MLB GMs.
Shaun
February 17th, 2010
4:14 pm
I have a challenge: Name one prospect who put up similar numbers to the ones Heyward put up at the same levels of the minors at similar ages, who was rated the number one prospect by Baseball America and who flopped in the majors to the level of a Komminsk or a Francoeur.
By numbers, I mean numbers that matter; numbers that actually tell us about his performance, not context-dependent numbers like RBI and Runs (which depend greatly on teammates).
I’m talking batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, walk rate, strikeout rate, walk-to-strikeout ratio, Isolated Power, etc.
JabboRockefeller
February 17th, 2010
4:23 pm
Wish the Bravos would install a “dunk Frank Wren” tank somewhere on the Turner Field premises. I have a feeling that by season’s end, the line for dunking privileges could be rather long…
Todd
February 17th, 2010
4:30 pm
Mark-
I remember when you used to write your own columns. Have you been directed by AJC to merely report on others columns? If I wanted to know what someobody else thought about Atlanta sports (ESPN, SI, etc.) I would just go to that website directly.
PLEASE STOP USING OTHER’S OPINIONS as a jumping off point for your columns. YOU are RENDERING THE AJC IRRELEVANT.
All I'm Saying Is...
February 17th, 2010
4:31 pm
Shaun: With respect to Heyward vs. Komminsk or Francoeur: From your mouth and letters on this blog to God’s ear, my friend. As much as anybody, I want Heyward to be the second coming of Hank Aaron but I’ll settle for a (healthy) David Justice. I just don’t want him to be rushed to the Bigs.
This team can win the wild-card and do some damage. And if we’re really lucky we can pull off a 1960 style upset of the NYYankees in the Series.
LET’S GO BRAVES!
Walker, Texas Ranger
February 17th, 2010
4:37 pm
Justice was Cluster like in his complaints of the fans during 95 Series. Cluster was critical of Parkview fans at one time and ended up getting banned from the Dairy Queen for 1 month. Sonny never criticized the Panther fans again.
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
4:43 pm
A little-known fact about David Justice (and this doesn’t involve the Filet-o-Fish): His best friend was from Maysville, Ky. Know who else is from Maysville, Ky.? Rosemary Clooney, for one. Yours truly, for another.
chris
February 17th, 2010
4:44 pm
The intangible may by Bobby Cox. The team may be a bit more inspired this year to play a bit harder and remain focused throughout the entire year to ensure No. 6 goes out at least with a playoff birth if not more. Talent wise there are serious questions but lets hope the heart of this team plays beyond our talent. If we get lucky with Glaus and Wagner we have the starting pitching to compete. We still need to move an outfielder and get us a big bat if Heyward is not ready.IF chipper is right and he’s a Fred McGriff in the wings lets REALLY pray he’s ready this year. My gut says ESPN is right but my heart hopes Bobby’s last season with the Braves will be the most memorable and renew the magic of the 1990s and early 2000s and see this team go all the way once again.
Shaun
February 17th, 2010
4:45 pm
All I’m Saying Is…, I don’t think he’ll be in the majors until he’s the best rightfield option for the Braves, which may be this spring or may be June. The odds of him becoming something like Francoeur or Komminsk are not very high, if you consider everything.
Granted, he’s not likely to be a superstar right away so I hope fans don’t get on him if he’s merely average or slightly above his first season.
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
4:53 pm
I’m not sure motivational stuff — like this being a manager’s final season — works in baseball. It’s hard to stay fired up for six months.
Sonny Clusters
February 17th, 2010
4:58 pm
Being like Jeff wouldn’t be so bad if he was big and strong and can throw and hit. Being uncoachable would be a bad thing. Ond day Coach just walked off and didn’t come back. We was wondering if we’d see him again. He got over it and was in shop class the next day but he was sore that you-know-who wouldn’t take a pitch. We was in possession of a David Justice signed baseball one time and kept it in a case made for displaying a baseball. David Justice should have remained a Brave. Marquis, too. Dye, too. They is more but it makes us sad to think of ‘em all.
Sonny Clusters
February 17th, 2010
4:59 pm
Bobby might try a little motivational stuff before a five game series. Going in flat and staying flat seems to be the problem.
Asheville Dawg
February 17th, 2010
5:03 pm
The reason flat roofs are bad is that the rainwater always find the hole and leak. That is what the Braves feel like to me-a flat roof. As the 162 game schedule will show that there are so many potential leaks that playing at .500 maybe what happens. Graybeard closers, no one at first base again, depending on Chipper for 150 games, that no starters get hurt, well do you believe in miracles! we are two or three injuries away from another long summer,just waiting for football to start.
Hillbilly Deluxe
February 17th, 2010
5:08 pm
So David Justice and Rosemary Clooney were best friends?
MitchC
February 17th, 2010
5:17 pm
Mark, I haven’t heard of Baseball Prospectus predictions, but I do have The Sporting News 2010 Baseball Yearbook magazine. That publication has the Braves picked second in the East, with the Cubs as the wild card.
Unless they are beset by serious injuries, one would have to concede a rather easy win of the NL East to the Phillies. If Halladay is Halladay, and Hamels rebounds, I don’t see anyone seriously challenging them with that lineup.
That having been said, I do think that the Braves can seriously challenge for the wild card, if we stay healthy. Yes, we know Chipper will be injured for 30 or 40 games, and yes, our bullpen is old, and we have to worry about Wagner and Saito, but, if our starting pitching is healthy, we have a top notch rotation. One would have to figure Lowe to shave a half a run to a run off his ERA. Hopefully Tommy Hanson can avoid a sophmore slump.
I think the Braves can get close to 90 wins, and seriously challenge for the wild card.
Do you agree, Mark?
uberVU - social comments
February 17th, 2010
5:18 pm
Social comments and analytics for this post…
This post was mentioned on Twitter by MarkBradleyAJC: Baseball Prospectus sees the Atlanta Braves finishing second to Philly in the East. http://bit.ly/9Vo1jk…
JabboRockefeller
February 17th, 2010
5:38 pm
Ol’ Waddell says the Thrashers ain’t moving.
Anybody from Winnepeg who’s heard exactly what date the move will commence?
JabboRockefeller
February 17th, 2010
5:42 pm
I sure get things balled-up. I thought David Justice and Rosemary’s baby were best friends…
Mark Bradley
February 17th, 2010
5:43 pm
Speaking of Rosemary Clooney, her nephew George used to jump center for the Augusta Panthers. Haven’t heard anything about him since.
JabboRockefeller
February 17th, 2010
5:47 pm
Bet he was the best 5′ 6″ center in the state….