Bradley’s Buzz: Did the Verducci Effect claim Jair Jurrjens?
Jair Jurrjens delivers, thereby putting himself at risk. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
Was it just happenstance that Dave O’Brien’s report of Jair Jurrjens’ impending MRI coincided, more or less, with Tom Verducci’s annual look at young pitchers at risk? Because, as the SI.com writer notes, Jurrjens was one of those who appeared to have defied the so-called Verducci Effect.
Ten months ago Verducci identified Jurrjens as one of 10 pitchers under 25 who’d increased his workload by more than 30 innings. You can question the methodology — Eric Seidman of FanGraphs did here — but there’s enough data to make the V-Effect worth noting. Writes Verducci:
“In the previous four years, I have identified 34 at-risk pitchers. Only four of them made it through that year without injury and with a lower ERA: [Ubaldo] Jimenez and three studs who did it last year — Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw and Jair Jurrjens. (Jurrjens may not have escaped the effect after all. He reported to camp this week with a sore shoulder and will undergo an MRI to determine the extent of the problem.)”
It could be that the MRI comes up clean. (Famous — and perhaps apocryphal — baseball headline: “X-rays of [Dizzy] Dean’s head show nothing.”) But it’s also worth noting that Tommy Hanson, whom Verducci didn’t earmark this spring, worked 194 innings (counting 66 at Gwinnett) in 2009 after logging 138 in the minors in 2008. Hanson is 23.
I say again: Handling a good young pitcher is the toughest trick in baseball. If he’s really good and your team has a chance to win something, how do you not deploy him? At the same time, the six most frightening words in the sport should be these:
Chicago Cubs. Kerry Wood. Mark Prior.
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124 comments Add your comment
fieldofdreams
February 16th, 2010
9:27 pm
Please, Lord Jesus, may this young man’s arm be ok. And may all AJC readers come to a saving knowledge of your amazing grace.
jake
February 16th, 2010
10:14 pm
If it hadn’t been Jurrjens’ shoulder it would have been someone else. A starting rotation doesn’t go through a season without injuries. That’s why keeping Vazquez was a necessity not a luxury — free agent status notwithstanding — unless Wren got something more than a reliever, a prospect at least two years away and a highly dispensable outfielder.
As for Chipper’s off-season training “regimen,” we’ve seen the past few years how effect that is.
Robert
February 16th, 2010
10:21 pm
More likely it was the Bobby Cox effect. Misuse of a pitcher resulting in injury.
Robert
February 16th, 2010
10:23 pm
“Chipper’s notion of offseason training is a bit different than some players’, Sonny. He maintains he does better when he trains less”
If we pauid Chipper to think, he’d be earning minimum wage. This idea of doing better by training less is no doubt a Cox idiocy that Chipper has bought in to.
Dont worry about staying in shape son. And dont worry about the fundamentals. Just make sure you dont wear sunglasses on your ballcap while shagging flies during batting practice
swhite
February 16th, 2010
11:01 pm
105th!
Scottbravesfan
February 16th, 2010
11:05 pm
He’s going to be fine. Just give the guy some time off. He’s been pitching his butt off down in Curacao he just needs to take a couple of weeks off.
Robert
February 17th, 2010
2:38 am
The three words no pitcher ever wants to hear
“Your manager’s Cox”
N8
February 17th, 2010
3:08 am
“Even before this, the Vazquez trade made zero sense to me. Why trade him for an outfielder the teams intends to platoon with someone else.” John
For the umteenth time, Melky was NOT the centerpiece of that trade. Vizcaino was. And if JJJ and Hanson are going to be injury risks, then Vizcaino was a very wise investment. Especially with the stable of young, promising pitchers on the way.
Can never have enough young starting pitching. That being said… yeah. It might be nice to still have Javier at this point.
But as I’ve stated on DOB’s blog a few times. This season revolves way more around Chipper and Glaus being healthy and productive, along with Heyward contributing.
If those three hit like they are capable of, this team can survice Jurrjens going down. If those three do NOT hit, even Jurrjens wasn’t going to save this season.
bobby last year thank god
February 17th, 2010
7:23 am
Bye Bye Cox and remember u blew u chance be team of 90’s and who did be why yes the Yankees..and toronto n minnesota thanks u pardes n marlins for lettin them win 2 W.S. and of course M.Bradley for sayin umpire help the fish. why he not look in dugout see who did it wore a braves hat n uniform pick nose…..and say that a boy chipper u can strike out please!
Mike wren
February 17th, 2010
7:33 am
Hi folks i love to screw u fans up get u season tickets in then trade…..enjoy cox last year cause he comin back in 2011…….so wait till 2012 now,,, this just in folks chipper strain his mouth on a BK whopper today be out for six weeks
F-105 Thunderchief
February 17th, 2010
7:55 am
Well, at least after Cox retires, we don’t have top read the real jackass rail against him all the time. When Bobby’s gone, Robert’s gone. God, please let it be so.
Barnacle Bill Bavasi
February 17th, 2010
7:58 am
9 out of 10 Vizcaino types never pan out.
Ex-Braves Fan
February 17th, 2010
9:34 am
JJ’s final 2010 line: 2 Wins, 4 Losses, 6.57 ERA, 3 DL visits, major shoulder reconstruction surgery by September 15th, out till at least 2012 spring training, then a below .500 pitcher after that. So, how is that working out for the JV trade now Mr. Braves GM???
Don
February 17th, 2010
9:54 am
Surprise, Surprise. One of our starters is probably injured. Many of us have been saying over and over since the trading of Vazquez was even mentioned as a possibility — that it is almost certain that at least one of our projected starters will be injured or be ineffective. The name of the game is Pitching – how could we even consider trading Vazquez (one of the best in the league). This is especially bad when Bobby Cox is your manager – With Cox managing, the only chance you have of being competitive and getting into Post Season is to have pitching so far superior to the other teams that it overcomes his management procedures and lack thereof and enables you to win over the long 162 game regular season schedule in spite of him. It is no accident that he was able to convert only 1 of 14 Post Season opportunities into a WS win – when the pitching could not compensate for his management in the short series setting.
Don
February 17th, 2010
10:14 am
Robert, you are right – Bobby Cox effects almost everything about the team in an adverse way.
In addition: Instead of thinking like some (perhaps most) of you that we are going to have a team that can be competitive, I had a nightmare and thought I saw a team that had only 2 (perhaps 3) proven major league quality postion players – SS, Catcher and perhaps 2nd base (although this has not been proven over a full season. I thought that I saw a team that does not have a single proven major league quality outfielder, has a 3rd baseman coming off injury and in decline trying to play 1st base, and has a part time, poor defensive 3rd baseman whose hitting has now declined. And even though the Pitching could and should be good, Bobby Cox will still be managing it (mismanaging it) and will be misusing the Bullpen as usual. And of course – Bobby Cox will still be mamaging the offense – with is lack of understanding and implementation of even the most simple basic and fundamental procedures for generating offense – to say nothing of his continuous blunders in tactics and in most aspects of the game.
Douglas O
February 17th, 2010
10:44 am
Will someone please explain why for the first 100 years or so of MLB most starting pitchers were expected to complete most games? They pitched on average much more innings than in the last 2 or 3 decades. What has changed?
ProScout
February 17th, 2010
11:18 am
It’s sports, injuries happen. In the old days pitchers were winning 30 games a year and pitching on 3 and 4 days rest, logging over 300 innings. You can blame it on conditioning (not enough, or at least the right kind), you can blame it on the fact that there are millions invested in these guys. Therefore their workloads are babied and then when they are asked to go beyond what they are used to they get hurt.
Pitchers arms are babied as early as middle school, throughout high school and college for fear of ruining an arm and a possible law suit. It continues throught their minor league careers and they aren’t ready to handle consistent 200 + inning years. A “quality start” if 5 innings of 3 runs or less!!!! THAT’S A QUALITY START FOR THE MONEY I’M PAYING YOU?!?!?!?
ProScout
February 17th, 2010
11:22 am
90-105 pitches is usually the cut off for a high school pitcher. Why am I not to expect a multi million dollar professional pitcher not to exceed this limit???? Why is he being held to the standard of a high schooler??
ProScout
February 17th, 2010
11:23 am
Douglas- multimillion dollar contracts (protecting those investments) and lazy multimillion dollar athletes.
raleighbravefan
February 17th, 2010
11:32 am
Even the Yankees don’t carry 6 starters. We have some pretty good options for 4/5 if needed, beginning with Medlin. Vazques had a great CAREER YEAR last year, but he is not the second coming. He is a very good, reasonably dependable inning eater who has never had 2 really good years in a row. How would you pay for him with the current budget and payroll? (they couldn’t trade Lowe, who probably will have a very good year, by the way).
Oh, and JJ is going to be alright!!!!!
Give them a chance
February 17th, 2010
11:39 am
JJ is fine, nothing in the x-rays but inflamation and he will pitch in couple weeks. Vazquez had a career last year and braves fans appreciate that but you have to look at the whole picture.
Vazquez will not follow that up again this year
Chances of Lowe having a career off again are slim and he has been working on his mechanic, it was a problem
Hanson is a great young pitcher to be a number 2 this year and a number 1 in the future.
KK by the end of year was indeed improved and getting quite used to american mounds and the smaller ball. Look for him to be a very good number 5 pitcher.
Hudson is repaired and Tommy John extends arms. Just look at at some of the pitchers who had the procedure and what they have done. If they are good and can pitch then they usually bounce right back. Hudson is pitch smart and he will be fine.
I think we have a great rotation and I look forward to seeing them play this year unlike a lot of fans who dont seem to like the trades. Vazquez though will not be a top pitcher this year. He will be in the middle of pitching this year. Mark my words.
raleighbravefan
February 17th, 2010
11:48 am
I am always amazed how you armchair geniuses can know so much more than Bobby Cox, who has a lifetime of knowledge and experience and access to the entire Braves braintrust (including JS). You also know more than all the players and managers and hall-of-famers who consider him one of the greatest ever. You remind me of a punk teenager who thinks he knows more than his parents and all other grown-ups.
By the way, one reason the Braves have only one WS is that thier great pitching staff, with the exception of Smoltz, was not great during many (if not most) deciding post-season games. Of course, that’s Bobby’s fault too!
g$
February 17th, 2010
1:34 pm
starting pitcher-2 million plus per year
standard MRI scan-100.00 per scan
airplane ticket back to the ATL-400.00+..more if it’s first class
passing the Bill to ATL ticket(game) holders-PRICLESS
My point being…wtf?..flying all the way back home just to get a simple MRI..when you could have done the same procedure just around the corner somewhere in Fl..and gotten the same results
dunwoodybrave
February 17th, 2010
7:52 pm
What I don’t understand is why at the end of the past two seasons — when the Braves were out of it the final couple of weeks — Cox still ran JJ out there for every one of his scheduled starts. None of the games mattered — yet we piled another 15 to 20 on JJ’s arm.