Bradley’s Buzz: Did the Verducci Effect claim Jair Jurrjens?
Jair Jurrjens delivers, thereby putting himself at risk. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
Was it just happenstance that Dave O’Brien’s report of Jair Jurrjens’ impending MRI coincided, more or less, with Tom Verducci’s annual look at young pitchers at risk? Because, as the SI.com writer notes, Jurrjens was one of those who appeared to have defied the so-called Verducci Effect.
Ten months ago Verducci identified Jurrjens as one of 10 pitchers under 25 who’d increased his workload by more than 30 innings. You can question the methodology — Eric Seidman of FanGraphs did here — but there’s enough data to make the V-Effect worth noting. Writes Verducci:
“In the previous four years, I have identified 34 at-risk pitchers. Only four of them made it through that year without injury and with a lower ERA: [Ubaldo] Jimenez and three studs who did it last year — Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw and Jair Jurrjens. (Jurrjens may not have escaped the effect after all. He reported to camp this week with a sore shoulder and will undergo an MRI to determine the extent of the problem.)”
It could be that the MRI comes up clean. (Famous — and perhaps apocryphal — baseball headline: “X-rays of [Dizzy] Dean’s head show nothing.”) But it’s also worth noting that Tommy Hanson, whom Verducci didn’t earmark this spring, worked 194 innings (counting 66 at Gwinnett) in 2009 after logging 138 in the minors in 2008. Hanson is 23.
I say again: Handling a good young pitcher is the toughest trick in baseball. If he’s really good and your team has a chance to win something, how do you not deploy him? At the same time, the six most frightening words in the sport should be these:
Chicago Cubs. Kerry Wood. Mark Prior.
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124 comments Add your comment
Daniel
February 16th, 2010
3:15 pm
He didn’t include Hanson because he didn’t log 30 more innings in 2009. If you look at Verducci’s method he counts all professional innings (including Arizona Fall League). Hanson pitched 28.2 innings in the AFL. That’s 166.2 professional innings in 2008 and 194 in 2009.
Reading is FUNdamental!
Conyers Braves Fan
February 16th, 2010
3:18 pm
Mark: Before we get too concerned, should we not wait until the results of the MRI are made available?
Seems that we may be talking about a non event at this point.
Larry
February 16th, 2010
3:19 pm
I dont mind Cox overtaxing relievers. That’s what they are for. If you dont want to pitch in relief or you just want to whine about how many innings you are being worked, go apply at taco bell.
Mark Bradley
February 16th, 2010
3:20 pm
We may indeed, Conyers. But if we don’t overreact, who will?
Matt
February 16th, 2010
3:21 pm
How in the world do the Braves trade Vazquez and NOT KNOW about this problem with Jurrjens before now?? Mind boggling ineptness appears to be the new norm with Braves front office.
Mark Bradley
February 16th, 2010
3:22 pm
Shoulders are odd, Matt. Jamal Crawford sat out the last game before the break because he slept on his and woke up hurting.
Larry
February 16th, 2010
3:25 pm
I fear that this may be the theme of our whole season. When you rely so heavily on your starting rotation, it’s easy for one guy to get hurt and then the wheels start to come off. And pitchers get hurt. That is simply the way of things. Even if JJ is ok, keeping starters healthy is going to be an issue all season.
The solution, of course, is to bring back Dan Kolb and have him start every game.
Dan Kolb's Mom
February 16th, 2010
3:26 pm
I like where your heads at, Larry
oldfart
February 16th, 2010
3:26 pm
How ’bout this article to your right>>>>>
“Pitcher injures shoulder shooting TV ad”
In Baltimore, but I’m sure that a few in here can manage to blame it on Bobby Cox.
Bring Me the Head of Francisco Cabrera
February 16th, 2010
3:31 pm
Mark —
The 2010 BCS National Championship DVD is out today. Can you BELIEVE that freaking SHOVEL PASS call Mack Brown made against Alabama?
Mark Bradley
February 16th, 2010
3:32 pm
Please … do not remind me.
Hillbilly Deluxe
February 16th, 2010
3:32 pm
The other night on MLB Network, Mitch Williams gave a long, in depth break down of Tim Lincecum’s throwing motion and why he believes Lincecum will be very lucky if he doesn’t develop arm problems in the future. It was quite interesting.
athdogbravefalcon
February 16th, 2010
3:37 pm
I said it here in October, November and every month since, we should/should’ve waited until spring training was well underway to trade Javy. That way we see who’s hurt and what other teams’ have injuries. Of course, at 50, I eat wrong and my shoulder hurts for a week. And my fastball, when throwing with my teenage son, consistently hits the high fourties, and touches fifty sometimes.
Daniel
February 16th, 2010
3:39 pm
But even with your incorrect calculations of Hanson’s innings, he still go really close to the 30 inning line. Does that make him less of an injury risk than if he hit the 30 inning line?
Do you think managers (outside of Dusty Baker) try to avoid that line just to avoid having their young pitchers have to answer a bunch of questions about it?
Wren = #1 Contender for DUMBEST Atlanta Sports Entity
February 16th, 2010
3:40 pm
In the dark annals of Atlanta Sports History could Frank Wren possibly be the only ATL Sports Icon dumber than the millionaire QB who was admittedly too stupid and lazy to figure out the playbook and who lost all his money and went to prison for running a felonious, interstate gambling operation centered around killing and torturing animals?
Wilson
February 16th, 2010
3:41 pm
The new braves theme song is up…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGakNOdoJcY
Reality Check
February 16th, 2010
3:44 pm
Mark, I said it last week and it repeats saying. The Braves penched pennies and traded their best pitcher and top 3 in NL for minor league/utility player combo and signed nothing of value to take its place. We now have two major question marks, can Tim Hudson finish the season and we will worry about JJ every time we see him grimace, etc. In addition the Braves have downgraded in several positions in the order. What do you think?
Braves Fan
February 16th, 2010
3:47 pm
If medlen does need to start he will be ready. Heard him in this interview last week. http://www.bravesfancast.com (about 10 mins into the show)
collegeballfan
February 16th, 2010
3:55 pm
“the Verducci Effect”. Sounds like the title of a new Robert Lumlum novel. With that title I bet its a helluva read. Anybody bid on the movie rights yet?
Hillbilly Deluxe
February 16th, 2010
3:58 pm
Looks like my comment never went through. You’d think by now I would have learned to copy everything before I send it, knowing that the odds are great there’ll be a problem.
Navigator
February 16th, 2010
4:04 pm
This situation is exactly why the Braves were so lucky in the 1990’s, early 2000’s when their pitchers held up so well. Only Steve Avery, who may have had the most throwing talent of the group, was lost to career ending injury.
PMC
February 16th, 2010
4:07 pm
Isn’t today the day to overreact about the other JJ Joe Johnson? They are going to have to trade the guy before Thursday or get NOTHING for him.
JJ is going to be fine. They are simply taking an MRI to have a look at his shoulder that’s all.
PMC
February 16th, 2010
4:08 pm
Jurrjens isn’t used in the Bullpen. His arm has been babied. He has to pitch what maybe 100 pitches every 5 days?
NOTSO FAST
February 16th, 2010
4:09 pm
Did somebody say we had too many starters? You never have enough.
Marty
February 16th, 2010
4:12 pm
If I remember correctly I believe Keith Law stated in a chat some months back that the Braves should consider trading JJ because his value would be extremely high and garnered the greatest return and he expected there to some form of injury due to his workload. This would have been very unpopular but may prove to have been the right way to go.
chem
February 16th, 2010
4:20 pm
Hanson leads his delivery with his elbow and generates a lot of velocity and movement on his pitches when he snaps his forearm down. That type of motion puts a lot of strain on the rotator cuff and elbow tendons. He’ll undoubtedly have shoulder/ elbow problems sometime in the next couple years.
Sonny Clusters
February 16th, 2010
4:21 pm
Clusters don’t throw hard until the arm is warmed up. Then, we throw with good mechanics so we don’t strain anything. We was reading where Tony Cloninger pitched on opening day in the rain and went 13 innings and his arm turned into Chef Boyardee. It must have something to do with the Atlanta Braves. Steve Avery’s arm turned into Chef Boyardee, too.
We was reading that Chipper weighs 230 pounds and was thinking that is 120 quarter pounders with cheese too much.
Fed Up With Wren (Again)
February 16th, 2010
4:21 pm
Collegeballfan, Dusty Baker is already cast as the lead villain in that movie. Mark Prior and Kerry Wood get offed in the first two scenes.
Hope JJ will be OK. I think this just further demonstrates that this season is hugely dependent on no breakdowns at any position and the huge gambles Wren has taken with his moves this offseason.
Braves73
February 16th, 2010
4:24 pm
MB, any word on Johnny Damon? Is he signing with Detroit?
bvillebaron
February 16th, 2010
4:28 pm
Let’s wait for the results of the MRI before we start jumping to conclusions here. I listened to Leo Mazzone over the weekend and he said that the Verducci-effect is a bunch of baloney. Then again, what the heck does he know? Glavine and Maddux never got hurt under his watch as I recall. Besides, as Bradley points out, if Verducci claims 30 more innings is the “cut off” point, why isn’t Hanson on the list after pitching 66 more innings in 2009 over 2008?
Carroll
February 16th, 2010
4:34 pm
everyone seriously needs to relax with the vazquez issue. I admit that at first i was floored when I heard of the trade, and only time will tell if the youngsters actually pan out. But this trade was the definition of “buy low, sell high.” It’s the only way that a mid-market team like Atlanta, Florida, etc etc can compete.
Mark Bradley
February 16th, 2010
4:43 pm
There’s no word on Damon, Braves73.
Juan
February 16th, 2010
4:49 pm
NOTSO FAST… Did somebody say we had too many starters? You never have enough.
That why i said back in Nov, I said that we can use KK as a long reliever and use him occasional at starter position ,so we can rest Lowe & Vazquez every other outting late in Aug and they can be resting in the end of the season.
F-105 Thunderchief
February 16th, 2010
4:55 pm
How much would that be in Dairy Queen brazier burgers, Sonny?
Mark Bradley
February 16th, 2010
5:00 pm
Chipper’s notion of offseason training is a bit different than some players’, Sonny. He maintains he does better when he trains less.
Sonny Clusters
February 16th, 2010
5:02 pm
F-105, Chipper was working out with Cheeseburgers. The DQ Bacon Cheese Grillburger is also 1/4 pound. So, Chipper would be 120 DQBCGb’s overweight. Old and slow is going to be complicated by fat and ugly. Those hammies are going to be tightening up and popping like crazy.
Sonny Clusters
February 16th, 2010
5:06 pm
We was certain Chipper would report in the best possible shape after gassing out last season. Had he been productive the club may have made the playoffs. With bad thumbs already an issue we was wondering if he has done anything to protect those famous toes? When we was playing ball we missed some games but that was only because we was being honored in the classroom at the very same time. We was never out with a bad toe or a bad thumb or a bad oblique or a bad hamstring or a bad (fill in the arthur).
eoniii
February 16th, 2010
5:10 pm
This is a reminder that pitch counts are a very good idea for young startes – we have to protect the franchise in Jurrgens and Hanson.
Wonder if Mulholland is still available?
F-105 Thunderchief
February 16th, 2010
5:11 pm
Jurrjens has already been performing like another hard-throwing right-hander we got in a trade with Detroit. Let’s hope he has that guy’s ability to bounce back from injury, too.
Herschel Talker
February 16th, 2010
5:16 pm
MB:
Please oblige me and put up a column on why we should fire Booby Cox. Thank you.
HT
Chop Chop
February 16th, 2010
5:26 pm
Jair ain’t Smoltz. Let’s just hope he doesn’t get a bad case of the Hamels this season. This team cannot afford that kind of hit.
oldfart
February 16th, 2010
5:27 pm
Only Liberty Media has made it clear that you can have too many starters. I wish the suits would take it to heart that it takes money to make money.
Joey M
February 16th, 2010
6:02 pm
Obviously best case is Jurrjens is fine and all he is felling is shoulder stiffness from a muscle spasm. But remember we do have Kris Medlen to come in and emergency start. He is a capable pitcher. We are also giving an opportunity for a roster spot to Mike Minor. Long odds he starts with the Big Club. Probably goes to AA ball to start. He is a viable option by mid season. None of our options are as good as Jair. He is the 3rd best under 25 pitcher in MLB behind Lincecum and Hanson. (Yes I said Hanson. Did you see the guy? Beast!)
todd grantham
February 16th, 2010
6:07 pm
Afraid i’m old enough to remember Jack Brickhouse and Lou Boudreau doing Cubs games on the old WGN.
todd grantham
February 16th, 2010
6:08 pm
yes, and Ole Diz was great. Wabash was to him what Turn Out the Lights was to Dandy Don. Precious memories.
tim
February 16th, 2010
7:14 pm
Mark I wonder about you sometimes. Do you really believe this blather you write?
Cracker Jacket
February 16th, 2010
7:26 pm
Can never have enouth starting pitchers! Braves blew it!
Ross
February 16th, 2010
8:15 pm
I’ve always worried that Jurrjens, as an “arm” pitcher with no help from his body, would run into shoulder issues – but not this soon
Crossing my fingers.
BravesFanLostInOhio
February 16th, 2010
8:15 pm
Holy crap, can we not wait until the MRI results before starting this sort of wild speculation?
John
February 16th, 2010
8:42 pm
Even before this, the Vazquez trade made zero sense to me. Why trade him for an outfielder the teams intends to platoon with someone else. I would rather have Vazquez for one more season than a part time outfielder who may stay with us longer.