Tech’s out of the Top 25, but it’s not yet on the bubble
Paul Hewitt to Iman Shumpert: "Please take me to the dance." (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
I keep hearing folks say Georgia Tech is in danger of missing of the NCAA tournament. It isn’t yet. Should the Jackets lose every game from here on, they won’t make it. But they won’t lose every game. (I feel very confident about this.)
Tech’s RPI is 29. If you’re a team from a major conference and you’re in the top 30, you’re a lock. (Yes, even if you go 7-9 in league play, which could happen. The Jackets are 5-6.) In his latest installment of Bracketology on ESPN.com, Joe Lunardi has Tech as a No. 9 seed, which isn’t bad for a team that has lost three of four.
Forget the Associated Press and coaches’ polls. They don’t register with the NCAA committee. (Good thing, since Tech just dropped out of both. In the former, it received only one 25th-place vote.) As esteemed former colleague Mark Schlabach notes in ESPN’s Bubble Watch :
“Tech seems to be in OK shape. The Jackets have five wins over RPI top-50 teams (Duke, Wake Forest, Siena, Clemson and Charlotte) and are 7-8 against RPI top-100 foes. But Tech can’t afford to lose the games it is supposed to win down the stretch, starting with Tuesday’s home game against defending national champion North Carolina. The Yellow Jackets play at Maryland on Saturday and play at Clemson on March 2. They could use another road victory before Selection Sunday.”
Tech could stand to win on the road, sure. It would also behoove the Jackets to win a game in the ACC tournament. But as long as they win their three home games — Carolina and Boston College are terrible, but Virginia Tech is playing well — they’ll make it. Since they don’t play anyone ranked ahead of them, their RPI doesn’t stand to rise or fall much from here.
But there is one major negative to all this. The lower your seed, the worse your chances. Back to Lunardi’s bracket: He has Tech meeting Illinois in Round 1, and Tech would beat the Illini on inside power alone. (Georgia upset both teams, as you probably know.) But look who would be waiting in Round 2.
Kansas. The best team in the country. In Oklahoma City.
It was six years ago that the Jackets beat KU in overtime in St. Louis to qualify for the Final Four. But that was then. (And the Jackets were a No. 3 seed to the Jayhawks’ No. 4.) If Tech plans to stay long in the Big Dance, it needs to work its way up to a No. 7 or even a No. 6 seed. Otherwise it’s looking at one win, max.
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170 comments Add your comment
Mark Bradley
February 15th, 2010
9:11 pm
I’ve been hearing the snowfall amounts from Covington and Maysville, louisville slugger. But we got four inches of snow here Friday.
Mark Bradley
February 15th, 2010
9:13 pm
Actually, RPI makes a huge difference, Jo Bling.
Jo Bling
February 15th, 2010
9:16 pm
Enter your comments here
Jo Bling
February 15th, 2010
9:21 pm
Well sure it does. But when your RPI is 29 and dropping, and you’re in eighth place in the conference and your team is playing worse today than it was three weeks ago, I again posit that Tech is very much on the bubble.
Gt4ever
February 15th, 2010
9:26 pm
Favors gone…. What does this say about the state of NBA basketball? This team is a JOKE… The talent that this team has is second to none! I don’t think that the talent is NBA talent, but if Coach K had this talent at Duke, they would be the undisputed number 1 team in the country! Period..
Tech Home
February 15th, 2010
9:33 pm
If hewitt can’t make the NCAAs with all this talent, he should be fired after the last nit game with no buyout, for cause.
scott
February 15th, 2010
9:47 pm
JUST Glad to see they finally beat FSU…!! Oh wait a min., that was the woman’s BB TEAM, My BAD!
Ned Racine
February 15th, 2010
9:49 pm
Tech makes the ncaas easily—mark it down. Look for a sweet 16 run–hewitt will have them ready to roll at tourny time. He’s a motivator.
GT/Falcons fan
February 15th, 2010
9:55 pm
Ned…lets me an u hook up. I want some what U R SMOKIN!!!!!
BartBuzz
February 15th, 2010
10:22 pm
It really doesn’t matter what the RPI ranking is for Tech. Paul Hewitt cannot coach in close games on the road. He has a hard time winning at home even though Tech has only one loss. I expect Tech will make the NCAA, assuming they beat Carolina. But do you really think Paul Hewitt can coach more than one win in the Tourney? I hope I have to eat my words.
73-66 Burst the Bubble
February 15th, 2010
10:29 pm
As did 30-24 on the gridiron.
Same as it ever was.
Tech Forever
February 15th, 2010
10:30 pm
No way….not this year. Tech is BARELY on the bubble right now. The Selection Committee has had two VERY STRONG penchants the last 1/2 dozen years or so and BOTH go against a GT bid….as of right now. First they have been weighing bad losses much more heavily than strong (top 50 RPI) wins. And secondly, the first factor has allowed them to let more mid-major programs into the tournament which is exactly what the mission became a few years ago. Given those two facts, Tech right now AT BEST is on the bubble, but I say right now they’re still on the outside looking in…mostly because of the strength of the Big East, which could send as many as 9 teams, and the Big 12, which could send 8. Both conferences top to bottom right now are more marketable than the ACC and their basketball fans travel better than the ACC (save UNC and Duke). I think the ACC will get 5 in, tops.
At best to get off the bubble Tech is going to have to beat UNC, Boston College, and either Clemson or VT. And even then that might not be enough if two or three underdogs win conference championships pulling at large bids from the majors. Personally I think Tech will have to win 4 of the last 5 or 3 of the last 5 and 1 in the ACC Tourney to get in. Anything less and it’s NIT time.
A loss to UNC tomorrow night, and I don’t think that’ll happen, will make it necessary for Tech go 4-0 down the stretch with a win in the ACC to make it in.
jeff c
February 15th, 2010
10:34 pm
To Protest @ 5:17…That’s why I listed both Shumpert and Udofia. I was hoping that 2 of them equals 1 Jarrett Jack. I know it’s wishful thinking, but it’s hoping that Udofia comes into his own after this year of experience. JJ was one of a kind. Players with his passion and leadership just don’t come around anymore, and the ones that are close only stay for a year.
Tech Forever
February 15th, 2010
10:36 pm
jeff c, I ahve seen games where the two of them together don’t add up to Brian Domalik.
GT man
February 15th, 2010
10:49 pm
Season began with an overtime win against Indiana Pa. in an exhibition game. That just about set the tone. NIT for Tech. Hewitt has been to GT basketball what Bill Lewis was to football. Hewitts championship run was because of Jack and Wil Bynum getting hot at the right time. Had Elder, because of injury, been on the bench, then GT just might have been N. C.’s. Hewitt got contrct exstension and its been downhill ever since. Favors made a wrong choice to come to GT, had he’d gone to UGA or Kentucky, he’d been averaging about 20 per game. Because at Tech, he has stunk.
tlkool
February 15th, 2010
10:51 pm
I think Paul Hewitt should resign as head coach at Georgia Tech especially if they only win eight ACC games and with three so called Mc Donalds all american players and with decent bench players they should be a NCAA top ten at least i wish GEORGIA TECH were coached by a great coach and a NCAA. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP head coach jus’t like BILL SELF see # 1 ranked KANSAS JAYHAWKS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OR JOHN CALIPAIRE see # 1 or # 2 KENTUCKY WILDFCATS now those are superb HEAD COACHES !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! PAUL [ BLEWITT ] HEWITT is nothing of a head coach to me any more jus’t a loser !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dubious
February 15th, 2010
10:51 pm
The sad thing is that this team has not gotten better, matured if you will, as the season has progressed….In fact, it has gone the other way…..Tech has lost way too many winnable games against objectively inferior teams….This team could very well miss The Dance
For those looking to 2010-2011, the key big men all leave….I think Tech will be looking at a .500 team next year….
Paul Hewitt Fan Club
February 15th, 2010
10:55 pm
We Run This Conference!
jeff c
February 15th, 2010
10:59 pm
Hah! Brian Domalik…I remember him. Matt Causey was a nice player. We need more guys like him. Fearless and fired up.
4 jacks
February 15th, 2010
11:38 pm
If Hewitt really had any class, or cared about GT the way Cremins did, he would take a reduced buyout and resign. Since this so called coach told us that no one wanted the job when he took it, I saw the true nature and character of this “coach” abd just how much he cares about GT. The man is not the “classy” person some would have you to beleive, but more than that he has made GT completely irrelevant in the ACC much less nationally. There is no more excitement at Alexander…that place use to rock. If he cared one ounce about GT he would resign.
GT Rival
February 15th, 2010
11:54 pm
Nothing much more disappointing than seeing young men underachieve. Tourney or not UGA has more to be proud of than GT.
CitizenK9
February 15th, 2010
11:59 pm
If they are anywhere close to as good advertised, both Felton and Fox would have at least a Sweet 16 team with the GT players. Felton won an SEC tourney with scrubs on Tech’s court.
neil marlowe
February 16th, 2010
12:30 am
a highly rated school in a major market, with a great sports history, and we are tolerating this mediocre effort by a bunch of underachievers, most notably Derrick Favors. we were led down the primrose path by those who thought this kid was the second coming. Go with Lawal, Peacock, Rice, Oliver and Miller the rest of the way, with Aminu coming off the bench. What were Schlumpert and the other guy last game? 0 for 14? !?!?!
GT Fan...
February 16th, 2010
12:54 am
A 5-year, $7 million deal that’s ALWAYS in its FIRST year …… I’m in disbelief every time I think of the contract Hewitt has. How in the H#LL did this broken-record contract get approved!?!
WHEN Hewitt’s guides this team, in an abnormally weak ACC, to a 8-8 or 7-9 conf record, NCAA Tourney or not, his integrity if he has any says he should resign with no buyout. He’s made plenty of money from this absurd contract, and his 34-57 career ACC records says he’s not worth a cent of it.
Wow, how nice it must be to be so protected by a contract. A. It never runs ends … B. if he takes another job HE owes GT $3.45 million … C. if he gets fired he gets ALL $7 million. A & C are hard not to take.
BravesFan79
February 16th, 2010
12:55 am
If Favors was somewhere else he would NOT be averaging 20 pts a game! He has NO hook shot or bank shot (Lawal has gotten much better since adding a little Tim Duncan type shot from midrange). Id like to see Favors work on a hook shot, and come back for another year. If he does, GT will still be top 20 material.
Now i do agree the guards could do a better job of getting the ball to him and Lawal (does Hewitt not teach the bounce pass??)
Am i the only positive one left? Because i see GT winning enough games to get to the tourney, and if we played any 1 seed besides Kansas, id give us a good chance to win and then make a run! i know it sounds like ive been drinking… but im sober.. .swear…
BravesFan79
February 16th, 2010
1:13 am
All that has to happen is for Hewitt to change the starting lineup… putting Oliver with Udofia and Bell,… with Peacock and Lawal starting and Favors/Rice/Miller off the bench for the 1st half. A Oliver/ Peacock combo would open up the inside game for Lawal/ Favors… because Udofia and Shumpert don’t scare anyone from 3 point range. How many times must we start out the game with NO shooters in the lineup!? All is does is make us have a bunch of turnovers trying to force the ball inside, and then the other team jumps out to a early lead. Sound familiar? I think, and hope these problems can be fixed. Then again, i also expected Hewitt to be smart enough to bring in an experienced offensive assistant last summer. (a old man, not another recent ex player!).
heeldawg
February 16th, 2010
5:03 am
Tech will probably beat my Heels tonight, but this game is truly a battle of the underachievers, and neither team will do anything in the NCAAs even if they do make it (and the Heels may well miss it this season, which is ridiculous, given the talent level in Chapel Hill). Tech at best will win one game in the tourney. Like Carolina, they’ve not improved as the season has gone on, which is a shame. There’s a lot of NBA talent on this Jackets squad.
Mark Fox in Athens is winning games with smoke and mirrors (and some damn fine coaching). His team’s talent level doesn’t come close to Tech’s. If the team could learn to finish people off when they are ahead, they’d be in the tourney this season, which would be a miracle. As it stands, they may well make the NIT. Right now, I’d take the job Fox has done with what talent he has over the jobs both Hewitt and Roy Williams have done with their respective loads of raw material any day of the week.
Notso Fast
February 16th, 2010
6:30 am
Tech has to look at their program. They get players and pull upsets from time to time but can’t win when they should win. They seem to play without any passion for the game. Maybe their players are thinking too much about turning Pro rather than doing what it takes to win games.
Roylee13
February 16th, 2010
6:33 am
Does not anyone else think it is a problem that a team with a losing record in their conference is a “lock” to play for the National Title? As Bradley says, almost the only way GT will not make it is if they finish 5-11 in conference. I have never seen him say anything about the fraud of teams like this playing for the National Title. And this is not just a slam on GT, several years ago when Felton was campaigning for GA to make it at 7-9, I said the same thing. VA made it a few years back at 6-10 and there was not problem with that in the sports media.
I’ve been trying to think of any American Sport where the regular season plays an important role in deciding the championship of that sport. College Football is about it (and now ESPN, the sports media and most college football fans want to change that- soon teams that finish 6-5 in the regular season will be rewarded by what is apparently their “right” to play for the national title).
What does it say about the reliability of RPI that a team like GT could lose the rest of its games and not fall much in RPI?
Hewitt's the Man!
February 16th, 2010
7:14 am
Hewitt will get the jackets to the NCAA–but if they fire him, he’ll demand a large buyout of $10 mil!!! He’ll be snapped up right away by another big time program, with plenty of cash in the bank!!!
mike
February 16th, 2010
7:45 am
TECH WILL WIN 3 MORE GAMES.. PAUL HEWITT GETS US IN THE TOURNAMEND 2ND ROUND THATS GOOD ENOUGH FOR ME THIS YEAR BUT NEXT BETTER BE ELITE 8.. ATLEAST YOU GO AFTER TOP TALENT.. PAUL JOHNSON IS A GREAT COACH BUT WHAT IF HE DONT GET US BACK TO A BCS GAME THIS YEAR.. MATTER OF FACT WHAT IF HE CANT RECRUIT TOP PLAYERS.. HE STILL HASNT WON ANYTHING WITH HIS PLAYER.. HE WON WITH DWYER,NESBITT,THOMAS,BURNETT,MORGAN CHAN GAILEY PLAYERS.. IT’S KIND OF SCARY WHEN YOUR BEST 2 RECRUITS IS CB AYERS N A RB CHARLES PERKINS 3 STAR PLAYER.. TO WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP U GOT TO GET SUM 5 STAR PLAYERS TO COMPETE WITH THE TOP 5 TEAMS.. U CAN SAY ACADEMICS ALL U WANT BUT I KNOW A STUDENT ATHLETER THAT BARELY GOT INTO USC FOR FOOTBALL HE SCORED A 1180 ON S.A.T N HAD A 3.5 GPA SO YEAH THEY COMPETE SOUTHERN CAL SMART SCHOOL
Jacket13
February 16th, 2010
8:01 am
This team has talent, but the coaching is horrible. Hewitt has lost at least three games himself this year including the two against Fl State. He starts two guards Udofia and Shumphert who in the last two days have produced absolutely nuthing! In the meantime Mo Miller, and Brian Oliver are playing wvery well. He constantly calls these rediculis timeouts while making no adjustments at all. If you gave Mark Fox, tech lineup, Tech would be ranked in the top 10. They cant win on the road. Not only does the players look shaken at the end of the road games and home games, but the coaches look lost! Hopefully if Tech gets smart enough, they will fire him and the new coach will come in and have something to work with. If they dont win tonight, they are done and so is Hewitt.
Vidalia man, bubba
February 16th, 2010
8:13 am
Will he let Peacock play outside tonight, and shoot three’s? Will he pull Rice and Oliver, when they get hot, and put reliable Shumpert in, who will make a bunch of turnovers, and drive to the basket with three men on him, and lose the ball, or am I talking about m. Miller? He certainly will change up things, if we get any rhythm going. We don’t won’t to have any chemistry, do we?
reebok
February 16th, 2010
8:20 am
missing the tourney would be best for the program in the long run, as well could quit kidding ourselves that hewitt is a good coach and the team is going to go anywhere w/ him at the helm.
tell it like it is
February 16th, 2010
8:30 am
It an’t all blewetts fault.What about all the underperforming players.You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink.
Bryan
February 16th, 2010
8:42 am
Uconn beating Nova was bad for Tech. Imo it replaces them with tech. If tech wins 3 out of 4 then they are back in. win 2 and you are out.
eddy
February 16th, 2010
8:45 am
I am just upset as anyone at how this team has underacheived so far this season and looked completely lost at times, but why not back this team instead of down it? Your suppose to call yourself Tech fans but all y’all do is talk crap bout Hewitt, the program, etc. Personally I hope fans like this stay away and continue to be fair weather fans. Support this team good or bad. Period. And thanks Mark again for a good article, like always.
Greg
February 16th, 2010
8:45 am
Paul Hewitt is a joke. The only reason he has a job is b/c he’s black. Which is total BS. Again how many acc winning records has he had since he’s been here? Is it really that complicated? 2004 was a fluke.
Phildo
February 16th, 2010
8:46 am
As a Tech fan, I say, “Go, Heels.” Let’s get this Hewitt charade over with and get a real coach.
Tom
February 16th, 2010
8:50 am
Unc is bad mark? Well did you see uconn last night? People said the same thing about them. GT is anything but a lock. If they lose 3/4, they are NOT IN unless they win 2 tourney games. Their rpi is going to plunge when they play 4 unranked teams.
GT
February 16th, 2010
8:53 am
I keep looking at Hewitt as a similar coach to Richt. One is a religious man the other is a man of roots. They recruit well, some because of their make ups which appeals to the target recruit and some because of the location in the SEC and ACC plus being in Atlanta. What you see with really great coaches is where ever they go it works. Roy Williams moves to UNC from Kansas both places he won national championship, Saban pull the same trick at LSU and Alabama. You see this win with yours or mine with Paul Johnson. There is really no warm up time they just go out and start winning. Some schools like Wake Forrest are very good at picking coaches, time and time again they come up with winners. Tech basketball and Georgia football should and could be much better that they are.
sidewalk74
February 16th, 2010
8:54 am
In the past 6 years what has Blewitt done to justify keeping him as coach? NOTHING. 3 loosing seasons and only 1 NCAA Tourney win.
Gt4ever
February 16th, 2010
8:57 am
eddy, Just because we talk crap about a coach doesn’t mean we don’t support the team. This coach has had plenty of time to produce! He has a team full of potential NBA players, some would argue the degree these players are ready to play NBA ball, but none the less, CPH has had plenty of talent. GT has a history of mediocrity in athletics, allowing a coach to continue, when it is obvious that the coach is done. If your at a program that expects to win this coach would already be history, CPH is paid enough money to be held accountable. CPH has had plenty of time, if he doesn’t produce this year, then DRAD should pull the trigger as he did with his football coach.
Paul Hewitt's Mom
February 16th, 2010
9:04 am
OK, after much consideration, I agree with everyone else. Paul Hewitt stinks as a coach and should be fired.
Ed in Gastonia
February 16th, 2010
9:07 am
Unc stinks mark? Let’s see. We blew out NC state. Something Gt couldn’t do and nearly lose. We lost by 10 to Duke. A little better than Gt. You better hope you beat us tonight. If you don’t, you’re done. Conn winning last night pushed some team out of the tourney.
Tech Takes on Tarheels tonight… do they stand a chance? | Park Lake
February 16th, 2010
9:12 am
[...] On a good day, I would say “No.” The Carolina Tarheels were once by far one of the best teams that would play in the ACC Tournament, but lately it seems as if they haven’t been in the news lately for leading roles. So is Georgia Tech really in danger of missing the NCAA tournament? [...]
Jackets2010
February 16th, 2010
9:38 am
Enlighten me fellow Tech fans.
George O’Leary was a dumb coach who would not overrule his dumb offensive coordinator and was about to fail as a coach.
Did he get the brainstorm to hire Ralph Freigen who saved him from his fate or was the change forced on him as I suspect?
To save Hewitt this year, why couldn’t someone good be hired as an assistant. I would be glad to beat whatever the Hawks are paying Mark Price just to get him teaching our PGs and the whole team free throw shooting.
I would do that even if I hated Hewitt because I would not want to pay him the 7.2 million dollars on his contract.
Heck Price might be worth a million a year or lower with a promise like FSU did with Jimbo Fisher.
O’Leary was going to fail without Freigen, probably never beat Uga just like Gailey.
Ed
February 16th, 2010
9:41 am
Unc has played better than Gt the past few games against common opponents. Tech better win tonight or their bubble will burst. Pretty scary to have to beat unc. They could turn it on any second like uconn did last night.
Melo
February 16th, 2010
9:52 am
Tech fans don’t like Hewitt just because he’s African-American. They need to find a white coach.
eddy
February 16th, 2010
10:02 am
I do agree with you Gt4ever. I have been a lifelong Tech fan and have never seen a team with this much talent do so little. Granted, I do think we will be in the tourney but unless we learn how to win close games then we have no shot advancing past the first weekend. The lack of free throw shooting, the turnovers, wasted timeouts, not inbounding the ball, etc. is a reflection of coachiing, even with freshman at key positions that isn’t an excuse anymore, we’ve played 25 games now. It’s just that I think the blame has to go to some of the players, not just PH. I mean, what has happened to Shumpert and Favors? Bell?