Bradley’s Buzz: ESPN’s Buster doesn’t love Braves’ rotation
This, as you doubtless know, is not a recent picture. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
We keep hearing that the Braves’ rotation will be just as good without the man who finished fourth in the National League Cy Young voting in 2009. The (thin) reasoning: That Javier Vazquez was unlikely to have such a season again, but that Tim Hudson — who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2008 and who has won two games since — will absolutely return to top-of-the-rotation form. This, I say again, assumes a lot.
I haven’t quite bought it, and I note for your edification that the estimable Buster Olney of ESPN.com hasn’t yet, either. Writing for ESPN’s Insiders, Buster O. lists his top five rotations — top six, actually — and somehow doesn’t include the Braves’. (Link requires registration.) His rankings:
- 1. Red Sox: Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, Tim Wakefield.
- 2. Yankees: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Javier Vazquez, Phil Hughes.
- 3. White Sox: Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Freddy Garcia.
- 4. Angels: Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, Joel Pineiro.
- 5. Cardinals: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, Brad Penny and “somebody else.”
- 5a. Phillies: Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, Jamie Moyer.
Of the latter, Olney writes: “The Phillies would have been No. 1 if they had Halladay, [Cliff] Lee and Hamels 1-2-3.” And what of the Braves? Here goes:
“I probably would have placed [them] at No. 3 if not for the trade of Javier Vazquez.”
So I guess that makes two among us who haven’t quite grasped the offseason Zen of Wren — Buster O. and yours truly. But you are, as ever, free to tell me how obstinately obtuse I am.
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341 comments Add your comment
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
4:43 pm
Alan, he is what he is. A .270 hitter with very little power outside the Yankee bandbox that plays slightly better than average defense. He is Timo Perez.
n
February 9th, 2010
4:46 pm
Fans never like trades for prospects/young guys because you can’t back it up with stats and thats what the trade was. Now if Dunn is decent and the young pitcher is good then its a steal for only giving up one year of Vasquez.
Lew
February 9th, 2010
4:47 pm
jesse stone-No, but if I’m going to criticize a person for something, maybe having a logical, rational basis for the criticism, that is rooted in fact might be the first thing I mention. You criticized the Dude for NOT making certain deals which you didn’t like, based on rumors you heard (unless you were actually privy to the negotiations) and that is senseless. I prefer to concentrate on the deals he DID make (which I mentioned like JJ, Ohman and Infante) that I happen to believe were pretty damned good.
emorton
February 9th, 2010
4:47 pm
I know everyone doesn’t think Wren made the right move but if you look at Tim’s career numbers is ave. about 13 1/2 wins per season. I know it’s not the 15 we had with Javy but that’s pretty close. Also, everyone seems to have forgotten what we got for Javy. The Braves have a starter for the 2011 season which I keep hearing as his projected time table to the majors. Also, we get Tommy Hansen for a complete season and Jar was more then impressive last season. I say look at what we have because it’s not to bad. I would say it is much better then last season.
J.W.
February 9th, 2010
4:50 pm
There is really only so much ranking and talking you guys can do until we just have to the play the freakin’ games to see.
Ranking by the way are so oversimplified because they cannot take into account human factors. Maybe a pitcher for the Yankees will feel less pressure to perform than one that might have pitched for the run thirsty Braves of ‘09…
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
4:51 pm
Lew, those were trades that Wren offered. If it were up to him, they’d be made. Most baseball fans without their heads in the sand know about the Peavy, kevin Towers thing. Everybody knows Fookie refused our 10M per offer to return to LA. Wren was lucky in those 2 instances. The JJ trade was great, but nothing else is anything to brag about.
n
February 9th, 2010
4:51 pm
The Rotation is no doubt much better going into this season then last (1-5 starters). No you say? Look who your #5 guy was last season. Look how you projected Vasquez versus how you are projecting Hudson this year (a wash).
KennyP
February 9th, 2010
4:53 pm
Everyday is worse than the one before in your world, isnt it?
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
4:53 pm
He!!, we boycotted an agent because Fookie wouldn’t steal our money.
Alan
February 9th, 2010
4:53 pm
Jesse, I’m not going to argue with you, so I’ll close by saying I think you’re selling Melky short. Brett Gardner is more like Timo Perez, and he couldn’t beat out Melky last year. And, by the way, unless they relent and re-sign Johnny Damon (which won’t surprise me at all), the defending WS champions will have Randy Winn or “Timo” Gardner in their starting outfield this year.
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
4:54 pm
Our rotation going into this year is better than that entering 2009 because of Hanson, not Hudson.
Bring Me the Head of Deforest Kelley
February 9th, 2010
4:54 pm
People who are looking back over Lowe’s career statistcs and expect him to “bounce back” in 2010 are in for a wakeup call. The guy pitched his best year with the Braves last year. Its not like he’s coming back from an injury last year, or a youngster who still his more command to gain. He is a junkball pitcher who continues to lose another couple mph off his fastball every year.
And yet, the Braves’ problem is not their rotation. This is still their best component top-to-bottom and comparitively against the rest of the division. Where the Braves invested their time and money this winter was to tear down their better-than-average bullpen of 2009, while doing nothing to improve their offense.
This team finishes no higher than third in the division standings, and probably a lot closer to the bottom than the top. I’ve never been more disappointed so close to the beginning of spring training.
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
4:56 pm
Alan, Brett Gardner DID beat out Melky entering the season. Melky only got the job back because Gardner faltered.
not to nitpick, but...
February 9th, 2010
4:56 pm
what’s the deal with Buster’s numbering convention? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5… 5a? I see this more and more these days – but how does it make sense? If he’s basically saying the fifth spot is a wash between two franchises, shouldn’t it be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5a, 5b? (and then continuing with 7, 8, 9a, 9b, 11, 12, and so on?)
SAMHERE
February 9th, 2010
4:56 pm
Wren on Sept. 17 1999 ordered the Oriles team plane to take off without superstar third baseman Cal Ripken, even though Ripken phoned ahead to say he was delayed in traffic.
That says it all about Wren. The Braves need to get rid of him.
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
4:58 pm
I just saw Deforest Kelly yesterday on the old show “M Squad”.
Fed Up With Wren (Again)
February 9th, 2010
5:00 pm
Bad move after bad move. Sign Tim Hudson and create a glut of starting pitchers. What to do, what to do? I know, let’s get a big bat who can play every day in exchange for a starting pitcher (preferably not my best one). No, you say? How about a fourth outfielder and a very young prospect for your best starter last year? Well, I need an every day big bat, but OK, that sounds great! Only cuz I can take a huge flier on a beat up, has been, older third baseman who I am going to make play a position he has never played before. Why, you say? Because he is cheap, my bosses are cheap, and I’m not that smart.
I don’t care about anyone who says it’s not Wren’s fault because he is on a budget. The Marlins and Rays are on way smaller budgets than the Braves and both teams have had better success in recent years. Being on a budget means being smarter about using your resources, not dumber.
willie
February 9th, 2010
5:05 pm
I agree….they should have kept Vasquez unless they were freeing up money for a bigtime hitter, which they clearly were not.
n
February 9th, 2010
5:07 pm
Why keep Vasquez. So you either put KK in the bullpen or Lowe. Doesn’t make sense when you have a player in a contract year and at his peak value and you can get some quality players and free up money to use now or at the trade deadline. THIS TEAM IS SO MUCH BETTER THEN A YEAR AGO, LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME WE WERE REBUILDING, NOW A CONTENDER.
bvillebaron
February 9th, 2010
5:09 pm
Mark:
You concede that Lowe has proven that he is a big-time pitcher and don’t understand why the Braves soured on him, yet you have this trepidation about Hudson who, prior to his surgery, was at least Lowe’s equal both in numbers and durability.
Frances
February 9th, 2010
5:13 pm
Several of you folks would fail basic 1st grade grammar, spelling and punctuation.
Bobby P
February 9th, 2010
5:17 pm
makes for two idiots
Fed Up With Wren (Again)
February 9th, 2010
5:17 pm
n, you are either drunk or high (or both). In no way is this team better than the team at the end of last year. Starting pitching, worse. Wren plugged in a question mark in Hudson in place of the absolutely no doubt best pitcher on the staff last year. Bullpen, worse. Wagner and the Japanese dude versus Soriano and Gonzalez. And Peter Moylan’s arm is going to absolutely fall off if Bobby uses him as much as he did last year. First base, worse. Troy Glaus vs. LaRoche, no contest, I’ll take Laroche every day and twice on Sundays. And nowhere was any position upgraded. Oh, wait, I forgot, I would take Hinske over Greg Norton. THAT WAS HUGE. Every other position, same. So, how is this team a contender? You become a contender by making your team better, not worse. The bottom line is that money drives this team and its decision making, not winning.
ugaaccountant
February 9th, 2010
5:19 pm
n – For what are we contending? I know it’s not the NL east.
bruce
February 9th, 2010
5:20 pm
oo
Lew
February 9th, 2010
5:20 pm
jesse stone-And you know these deals were proposed how? You’re really one of FW’s assistants hoping to get him fired so you can move up and take his place?
I repeat-you don’t know a damned thing about those trades that didn’t happen-you THINK you do because of rumors you heard or saw in print. If you were not privy to the phone calls or negotiations, Dude, you don’t know jack.
And maybe you’d better go back and check the history before you make statements. Wren called off the whole thing because Towers kept asking for more. I’ll guarantee you that Towers WISHES he were able to make that deal for Yunel cause he didn’t get anything close to it from the White Sox. He tried to hijack the Braves and Wren wouldn’t let him. Who Towers really wanted (if you believe the rumors) was Tommy Hanson and FW wouldn’t do the deal.
You may not realize it, but you’re so far out in left field on this whole thing that Juan Pierre couldn’t hit the cutoff man from where you’re standing.
n
February 9th, 2010
5:20 pm
Fed Up: I am not drunk or high, read what I said. I said better then this time LAST YEAR. Not end of Last year. I think the bullpen will be better this year. It sure seems a lot deeper on paper. A year ago outside of 2 or 3 guys there were a lot of questions. They were already a contender at the end of last year, didnt need improvement if you look at the numbers. Year over year they have improved drastically.
bruce
February 9th, 2010
5:22 pm
abbreviation for obstinately obtuse… never used those two words together before… thanks for the thought, but sorry I can’t call you that on this one, even if Lew did.
Busther OHLNEY
February 9th, 2010
5:22 pm
I would expect nothing less from the Yankees and Red Sox personal network. Each of those rotations have some pretty serious question marks in them. Atlanta’s rotation stacks up decently with them. I don’t think Atlanta has a true number one but they didn’t even with Javier Vazquez. I predict that Vazquez comes back to the earth after his short stint back in the NL.The AL is much more difficult to pitch against. I don’t think Javier will fall flat of his face but I don’t think he will do what he did last season in Atlanta.
ugh
February 9th, 2010
5:23 pm
Mark Bradley continues to be an embarrassment to Sports Journalism.
bvillebaron
February 9th, 2010
5:29 pm
Fed Up:
Actually since you had to resort to name calling, I think you are the one who is drunk or high. See my earlier comments re Hudson/Vazquez comparison (sorry to like bore you man with FACTS). Wagner is like only #6 on the lifetime saves list and Saito (that’s his name) was a dominant closer a few years ago for the Dodgers and pitched well for BOSTON last year. Health issues aside (and Gonzo has already has had his own TJ surgery at a much younger age–I guess he can make a successful recovery from TJ, but Hudson and Wagner who both pitched healthy and well last September can’t-and Soriano has missed a substantial amount of time with Atlanta during his time there due to his own arm injuries, except of course for last year when he knew he would be free agent this year), anyone who wouldn’t take a healthy Wagner/Saito combo over Gonzo/Soriano probably is what you accused n of being.
I will concede the LaRoche argument except for a couple of things which are they wanted a RIGHT HANDED bat, not another left handed one, and wanted someone to play 1st for only one season. When the Braves signed Glaus, LaRoche was looking for a two or more year contract (I realize that he eventually signed a one year deal, but hindsight is always 20/20).
Steve
February 9th, 2010
5:32 pm
Some of you are killing me when it comes to dissing Hudson.
Let’s put this in persepective. Most of you are saying Hudson has been an absolute bust in Atlanta, while everyone agrees that Vazquez just put together by far the best season of his career. I will just compare Hhudson’s 2008 year (injury-plagued, but he started 22 games) versus the ridiculous year Vazquez just had.
Hudson 2008 – 3.17 ERA, 1.162 WHIP, 11 wins, 141 innings in 22 starts for an average of 6.4 innings per start
Vazquez 2009 – 2.87 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, 15 wins, 219 innings in 32 startsfor an average of 8.8 innings per start
So basically, Huddies numbers in an injury plagued season are only slightly worse than Vazquez’s career year. Not only that, Vazquez only lasted roughly one out longer than Hudson in his starts.
If you compare the 3 year stats, Hudson is actually BETTER than Vazquez… even IF you factor in the league ERA and WHIP differentials of the AL for Vazquez. Let’s remember, those three years are the ones all of you are whining and moaning about where Hudson ‘under-achieved’ in Atlanta. most of you have memories equivalent to a goldfish it appears. In 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008 Vazquez had ERA’s closer to 5.00 than they were to 4.00. That’s right, 4 of the previous 5 years Vazquez had ERA’s in the mid to high 4’s. Everyone is bashing on Hudson, but his number absolutely DOMINATED Vazquez until this one flahs in the pan year.
GET OFF THE BANDWAGON PEOPLE!!
On top of that, Vazquez was only going to be a Brave for one more year. Unless he completely stinks beyond reason this year, he is going to ask for 15 million plus and at least a 4 year deal in free agency (that’s the same as Lowe, and my guess is he will actually go much higher).
The Braves just got a BETTER pitcher for long-term, at probably 60% of what Vazquez is going to get.
Is Hudson’s arm a question mark? You bet it is. That being said, that question mark is no bigger than the question mark surrounding Vazquez and his ability to repeat his stats from 2009 considering. Vazquez is a whopping one year younger than Hudson, and it’s not likely that his breakthrough year represents a major turning point from which his career will just continue to get better.
My bet is by the end of the year, Atlanta fans will be loving the fact they have Hudson (who loves the Braves) instead of Vazquez who would have bolted immediately after the season.
Opinion
February 9th, 2010
5:35 pm
I think MLB needs another lockout…..$30m/yr for A-ROID just ridiculous
no wonder it costs all the ticket prices are ridiculous at Yankee Stadium
one more thing……$2 beer nights would be a big help to fill our empty stadium…Frankie
Opinion
February 9th, 2010
5:41 pm
Braves will be good this year
md
February 9th, 2010
5:45 pm
Mike Minor shouldn’t be too far away if someone has a bad start. He did his minor time in college, so I wouldn’t count him out. If he has a good spring, who knows.
bravesfanbob
February 9th, 2010
5:52 pm
Does anyone remember we got Arodys Vizcaino in this trade? This may or may not be the Doyle Alexander for a minor leaguer with a lifetime minor league ERA of over 5.00. (That player was John Smoltz) It may turn out to be that. You people who are so sure this was the worst trade ever probably don’t even know who I’m talking about. This trade allowed us to get Tim Hudson, (yes I know he was already signed, but does anyone believe we were going into the season with 6 starters), Troy Glaus, and will still leave us a little money to sign one more free agent, possibly Damon or Dye. Vasquez will no doubt have an ERA of over 4.00 this year. Last year was the best year of his career, and he will not duplicate it this year. When Arodys Vizcaino reaches the majors, there are many of you who will change your mind.
Adam
February 9th, 2010
5:54 pm
I don’t understand why they didn’t tell Hudson he was going to be their closer and leave the other five guys starters. Wouldn’t have had to trade a starter “just because” and they would have had a closer for the next 3-4 years.
Steve
February 9th, 2010
5:56 pm
Dang. Should have gone to page 3 before I posted. Bville must be my twin in logic.
I apologize to all for my post mirroring his. Bville, I don’t think I have ever agreed with someone on these boards any more than I am agreeing with you on this.
Oh, as for Buster Olney, his ranking the Cardinals in the top 5 speaks out about his baseball ability. Two studs and a host of nothing. Maybe they should go by ‘Carp, Wain, and pray for Rain’.
MiamiBrave
February 9th, 2010
6:01 pm
Don’t forget that we traded Tyler Flowers (a can’t miss power hitting catcher/first baseman) for essentially a one year rental of Vazquez and Melky Cabrera. Vizcaino is still a question mark, so who knows. Flowers should have been our starting first baseman this year. The kid is absolutely crushing the ball. When it’s all said and done, the Flowers trade and the subsequent Vazquez trade might come back to be as bad as the Teixeira trade was a couple years ago.
The question remains would you rather have a $11.5 million Vazquez in your rotation this year or a $9 million Hudson? The Hudson signing forced the Vazquez trade. It made absolutely no sense at all. In fact, the combination of Hudson and Cabrera actually increased payroll $500,000 over Vazquez’s contract. Personally, I’d rather have Vazquez and a $400,000 rookie outfielder. If you can’t afford to pay your number 1 starter $11.5 million, why are we paying our number 4 starter (Hudson) $9 million and a 4th outfielder (Cabrera) $3 million? It’s an extremely poor allocation of limited financial resources.
hal
February 9th, 2010
6:09 pm
i rember all the hyperbole last year when smoltzy left and same thing this year over vasquez ill post agin in august when haviers era’s in the 7’s and hes given up 40 hr in that band box and ask you all how ya like mr wrens trade then of course your all atlantas and so know nothing about baseball or you might actually gone too a few of thos playoff games in the unimpotant 14 straight lol
Jeff Walker
February 9th, 2010
6:09 pm
Chuck is easily the most sensible writer on here. The AJC should fire bradley and hire chuck. It’s funny that a former 20-game winner gets no respect b/c he had tj surgery 1 time, but a guy has 1 great year in an otherwise mediocre career and everyone gives him unlimited credibility/praise (not saying Vasquez ins’t good). Hudson is one motivated guy right now b/c of all these doubters, and I like him to have a really good year b/c he has a chip on his shoulder. The guy is a training freak so he will be doing everything possible to be healthy. Also, Vasquez has the 1 great season, and people forget his average past, Lowe has 1 poor season (still won 15 games) and people forget his above average career
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
6:20 pm
Lew, you are going to believe what you believe. Everybody that knows baseball and doesn’t have an axe to grind KNOWS that Wren offered Furcal 10M and Furcal turned it down to stay with the Dodgers. You can refuse to believe it and call it a “rumor” all you want, but most know it’s true.
There are numerous stories about the failed Peavy trade (I guess they’re all false, huh?) from the mlb.com archives and elsewhere. Peavy did not want to come to Atlanta. In ANY scenario, Yunel would be a part of that trade. But again, Lew you can pretend it didn’t happen.
And your last attempted “dig” at me made no sense. “You are so far out in left field, Juan Pierre couldn’t hit the cutoff man from where you’re standing”. Juan Pierre has an incredibly weak arm. You should have used a strong armed outfielder in your lame attempta t whatever it is you were attempting. An average attempt from you Lew, but it’s a swing and a miss.
Skeezix
February 9th, 2010
6:27 pm
Mark: Your 4:12 post is exactly on target—that is why I don’t cut Wren any slack for the budget he is working under. He caused the problem by overspending on pitchers like Lowe and KK. The only good move since Oct 2009, is getting rid of Norton…but that move was 3 months too late.
TennesseePaul
February 9th, 2010
6:33 pm
Ah but the Braves have Jurrjens, Hanson, Teheran, and Vizcaino…
oh wait, you were talking about 2010…
athensmatt
February 9th, 2010
6:51 pm
mark bradley: a writer who would point out the braves lost 62 games before stating they won 100.
i’d say a rotation with jair jurrjens, tommy hanson, and tim hudson is pretty darn good. besides, javy vasquez only has a good season every other year. no way he has an e.r.a. under 4.50 for the yanks in 2010.
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
6:55 pm
Lew- Since it’s just “rumor”, do you also believe Tiger Woods has been a faithful husband?
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
6:56 pm
athensmatt- the point is, we should be able to get something better than Melky freakin’ Cabrera and a POSSIBLE future major league pitcher for javy.
Josh in Ohio
February 9th, 2010
6:57 pm
I have to respectfully disagree with you, Mark. IMO the Braves have the third best rotation in baseball. The Red Sox have the best rotation hands down. The Yankees #2, Braves #3, Cards #4, Angels #5, Phillies #6. The Braves match up quite well with the CWS, LAA, STL, & PHI. Lets match the Braves staff against the Phils b/c they’re in our division.
#1 JJ vs Halladay: Halladay is the best in game.
#2 Hanson vs Hamels: Slight edge Hanson.
#3 Hudson vs Blanton: Huddy
#4 Lowe vs Happ: Lowe
#5 KK vs Moyer: KK in a walk over.
Braves win 4 of the 5 matchups with the Phils. I admit I am biased, but honestly how is the Phillies staff better than ours? or Chicago’s or Anaheim’s? You can make a solid argument that St. Louis’ staff is better b/c Carpenter and Wainwright are better than any two we can put at the top of the rotation. However, our 3,4, & 5 our better than theirs.
Somebody point out where and how I’m wrong, I’m willing to listen.
"Chef" Tim Dix
February 9th, 2010
7:14 pm
Tommy Hanson wins 20 + and will be feared.
jim
February 9th, 2010
7:19 pm
“Buster mentions San Fran and Tampa Bay in the same category as the Braves”
Well a rotation headed by Lincecum, Cain, and Baumgarner with Zito at # 4 is certainly better than the White Sox and probably the Cards, and Tampa Bay’s rotation from 1 – 5 is also pretty impressive if Price lives up to expectations, and they have depth in the high minors. All three of these rotations should probably surplant the Chicago rotation for starters.