Bradley’s Buzz: ESPN’s Buster doesn’t love Braves’ rotation
This, as you doubtless know, is not a recent picture. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
We keep hearing that the Braves’ rotation will be just as good without the man who finished fourth in the National League Cy Young voting in 2009. The (thin) reasoning: That Javier Vazquez was unlikely to have such a season again, but that Tim Hudson — who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2008 and who has won two games since — will absolutely return to top-of-the-rotation form. This, I say again, assumes a lot.
I haven’t quite bought it, and I note for your edification that the estimable Buster Olney of ESPN.com hasn’t yet, either. Writing for ESPN’s Insiders, Buster O. lists his top five rotations — top six, actually — and somehow doesn’t include the Braves’. (Link requires registration.) His rankings:
- 1. Red Sox: Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, Tim Wakefield.
- 2. Yankees: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Javier Vazquez, Phil Hughes.
- 3. White Sox: Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Freddy Garcia.
- 4. Angels: Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, Joel Pineiro.
- 5. Cardinals: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, Brad Penny and “somebody else.”
- 5a. Phillies: Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, Jamie Moyer.
Of the latter, Olney writes: “The Phillies would have been No. 1 if they had Halladay, [Cliff] Lee and Hamels 1-2-3.” And what of the Braves? Here goes:
“I probably would have placed [them] at No. 3 if not for the trade of Javier Vazquez.”
So I guess that makes two among us who haven’t quite grasped the offseason Zen of Wren — Buster O. and yours truly. But you are, as ever, free to tell me how obstinately obtuse I am.
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341 comments Add your comment
jeffrey d
February 9th, 2010
3:33 pm
I agree that there’s a few question marks in our rotation. But to put a rotation that has Joe Blanton as a 3rd starter in the top 5?
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
3:35 pm
Jared- He saw A LOT more of Glaus than you or me. He is also privy to information that you and I are not.
chuck
February 9th, 2010
3:40 pm
No…i hear you on Chipper Jared, but I would have let him explore the market and see what he was really worth, and matched that if reasonable. I might have just let him walk, considering the team was about to enter rebuilding anyway.
Less money or not, he is still only available 70% of the time. All of the injury talk for Huddy and others, and this guy gets a free pass. Even if he did hit better than ever in 2008.
Frank Maney
February 9th, 2010
3:40 pm
I’d like to appoligize to everyone. I’m the reason that for the past 5-6 years the Braves have stunk. I became a braves fan the year after the 14-15th straight East Title. (Cant remember which.) Ever since its been dissapointment one after another. I wish the braves would hold there good players. Again I appoligize for the jinx.
Ramblin Wrecker
February 9th, 2010
3:45 pm
So I guess my question to Mark Bradley would be, if you were underwhelmed by the acquisition of Vasquez last offseason and became whelmed as you put it, isn’t there just as much a chance that you will be whelmed by the new starting rotation as you might be disappointed?
JCarson10
February 9th, 2010
3:46 pm
Monty, even if your calculations are dead on Hudson would still have a better career ERA by somewhere between 1/3 to 1/2 a run……..still my points are valid. I think I should take this guy’s job. This is the dumbest thing I have ever read. Also, I would bet money on 1. Our rotation being top 3 in NL and top 5 in ML. and 2. Wainwright and Carpenter, both not just 1, not repeating last year’s success.
lj
February 9th, 2010
3:46 pm
the vazquez trade was more dumber than the mark tex trade! A braves fan but cmon what are u guys doing? lol…we need at least 2 players hitting over 285 avg 25hruns! pitching rotation will be fine. GO BRAVES!!!!!!!! GO FALCONS!!!!!!!! GO HAWKS!!!!!!!!!
JCarson10
February 9th, 2010
3:48 pm
I am actually just going close this window because moronic sports writers just piss me off. Study the sport you write about. Get a clue. Then maybe you can write a semi-intelligent article.
Chief Knockahoma
February 9th, 2010
3:48 pm
Enter your comments here
Lew
February 9th, 2010
3:50 pm
You’re obstinately obtuse.
Chief Knockahoma
February 9th, 2010
3:51 pm
The Braves don’t have the big gun at the top but I would take our 2 thru 5 over anyone.
Todd - Dacula
February 9th, 2010
3:52 pm
Pure stupid thinking; Vasquez, although pretty good, his subtraction does not warrant that big of a loss. However, just like NCAA Foorball pre-season ranking, it means nothing for someone to guess how good a team mike be. There are so many factors to consider. Lets just wait and see… I am sure the Braves can be one of the better team-starting rotations; the bats have to come alive…
chuck
February 9th, 2010
3:53 pm
Andy: Obtuse! Is it deliberate?!
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
3:53 pm
I agree Chief, but our outfield has been broken for some time and it hasn’t been fixed. Melky is not even a Band-Aid on a severe laceration. He’s more like Curad adhesive bandages.
Ramblin Wrecker
February 9th, 2010
3:53 pm
I mean, Hudson’s average year is better than Vasquez average year. So statistically that is more likely. Lowe’s average year is better than Vasquez’s. Same deal. It wasn’t like Lowe had a 6.00 ERA and lost a lot of velocity. He was good some of the time not good some of the time and apparently noticed a mechanical flaw in his delivery. To me all the factors are there for Lowe to move more towards his mean.
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
3:55 pm
When you trade a good piece, you expect to get something in return. We got a 4th outfielder and a POSSIBLE future major leaguer. These are the trades the Pirates make.
Conyers Braves Fan
February 9th, 2010
3:56 pm
Mark: Buster may be right or wrong with his ratings. He gets paid to write these articles as he sees
the situations. I don`t care what he writes one way or another.
I do care about the Braves and how they play on the field. Our team is what it is. Maybe it will be
better sooner than later. The pitching rotation is not the main concern…..its the lack of a big
hitter that is not a retread that worries me. The stopgaps we got over the winter may not be the solution.
Ramblin Wrecker
February 9th, 2010
3:57 pm
Chief Knockahoma,
“they don’t have a big gun at the top of the rotation”
What team were you watching last year? They had two guys with sub 3.00 ERA’s and were nasty down the stretch, Jurrjens and Hanson. You telling me neither of those guys are “big guns”?
Stupid ridiculous statement.
Mark Bradley
February 9th, 2010
3:58 pm
None of us writers knows everything, Conyers. Least of all me. But I would say I value the opinions of the people I reference. Otherwise I wouldn’t reference them.
Bob
February 9th, 2010
3:58 pm
Every GM and baseball insider have the same opinion of Wren, Wrong man for the job, makes moves based on emotions. Will turn Braves into Nationals.
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
3:59 pm
Bob- He lasted one illustrious year as the Orioles GM.
tmack652
February 9th, 2010
4:01 pm
NC- you make a lot of sense on here. But be nice to Mr. Bradley!! show him some of that NC charm we love to adorn on our fellow southerners
Alan
February 9th, 2010
4:01 pm
Mark, we all know the Vazquez trade was a salary dump, but no one honestly can expect the Braves to admit that. In the end, it was decided to choose a reduced-salary Tim Hudson for the next 3 years over 1 guaranteed year of Javy Vazquez, with the distinct possibility of Vazquez departing via free agency after this season. The Braves obviously shopped around, and they took the best deal they could get. Everyone’s trashing Melky Cabrera, but the guy was a regular player on the World Series champions. He is not a bum, and I believe he is going to be at least a semi-regular this season — and likely a full-time player if Heyward starts the season at AAA. By all accounts, the two pitchers are very good prospects, and the word is that Mike Dunn (the lefty reliever) likely will be in the Braves’ bullpen. The kid righty, Vizcaino, has a chance to be another Jurrjens. If he is, the trade will turn out to be a great one for the Braves. As far as Buster Olney’s rankings go, he’s right about the Red Sox and the Yankees at the top, but that’s it. The Braves’ rotation is superior to all the rest. Kyle Lohse and “anybody else” for the Cardinals? Jake Peavy, Gavin Floyd and Freddie Garcia for the White Sox? Joe Blanton (at 10 million a year for 3 years, by the way) and Jamie Moyer for the Phillies? KK at the back end of the Braves’ rotation is better than all of those guys.
Opinion
February 9th, 2010
4:03 pm
my problem is we traded 4 good prospects to get a mediocre Vasquez at the time, and now traded a #1 ace Vasquez with us for 1 good prospect………the math doesn’t add up
T Burns
February 9th, 2010
4:06 pm
Vazquez’ 2009 was the best year of his career – unlikely to duplicate it. As it stands now, 4/5ths of the time, the Braves will send a pitcher out that has a strong chance to win, no matter who they’re facing. I have great confidence in this rotation, more confidence at the beginning of the year than I’ve had in an Atlanta rotation since the breakup of the big three.
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
4:06 pm
You didn’t include Brent Lillibridge in those “4 good prospects” we sent to the ChiSox for Vaz, did you?
Mark Bradley
February 9th, 2010
4:12 pm
Here’s my problem with the we-have-to-dump-a-pitcher mentality, Alan: Wren acquired three of these guys in one offseason. He knew better than anyone what the payroll was going to be. Why get them if you have to turn around and say, “We can’t afford them”?
In the grand scheme, the mistake was signing Kawakami on top of trading for Vazquez and signing Lowe. That was too much to pay and too long a commitment for a guy who’d never pitched in the major leagues. I understand that Wren wanted to avoid a repeat of 2008, when he didn’t know from night to night if he’d have a healthy starter, but he overbought. He knew Tommy Hanson was close and Jair Jurrjens was really good and that Tim Hudson was in the process of rehabbing — and still he moved to import three starting pitchers AND re-sign Tom Glavine.
Opinion
February 9th, 2010
4:12 pm
Tyler Flowers-great prospect , Brent Lillibridge- sub par = =2 good prospects (on average)
UGA math…..
Opinion
February 9th, 2010
4:13 pm
I think Tyler Flowers would be ready to play 1st base this year….if we still had him
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
4:15 pm
Yeah, Flowers could be our first baseman now and we wouldn’t be looking for a LF for what seems like our 16th straight year. Again, I wish we would’ve talked to the Tigers about Wilkin Ramirez.
Opinion
February 9th, 2010
4:15 pm
why keep playing ourselves…..lets sell off all of our good old assets for some young talent…and get young all around.
I’m tired of all this in the middle of the pact crap
Opinion
February 9th, 2010
4:17 pm
I think I just saw John Shuerholtz up in some trees with some binoculars in Curacao ….must be looking for some new Andruw Jones type players
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
4:17 pm
Alan, the only reason Melky was a regular on the Yankees is because they didn’t need a CF with a bat. We are in dire need of a bat.
Lew
February 9th, 2010
4:17 pm
jesse stone-Yeah and Leo lasted how long in Baltimore? Thing is that Angelos is crazy as all hell and no one is safe working for him. I wouldn’t read anything into Wren’s lasting a year.
Hell, if nothing else, he should be praised for getting Jurrjens (and by extension McLouth for Hernandez, who he got in the JJ deal) for Renteria (never had another good year, much less AS good in Atlanta) and his also picked up Infante and Ohman for someone nobody even remembers anymore. He brought in the players to improve our 09 record by what? about 14 games and totally revamped our pitching rotation (thereby even giving us a Javy Vazquez to trade for salary relief)?
Yeah, Dude needs to be fired because he couldn’t get a big enough deal for a player with a single year left on his contract, that had a career year when every single GM realized it was just that -a career year- and had never followed up a successful year in a 12 year career with another great season. Time to face facts-Javy (and I wanted to keep him and NOT re-sign Hudson) just wasn’t worth nearly what everyone thought he was. Market conditions and NOT Frank Wren, IMO, unless you;’re delusional enough to truly believe FW turned won a better deal?
Mark Bradley
February 9th, 2010
4:19 pm
I’m not sure Tyler Flowers is ready for the majors just yet. He came up to the bigs for the White Sox in September last season, but their plan is to give him another minor-league season.
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
4:20 pm
Lew- what team is Leo working for now? He also had Garret Anderson in our outfield. He was also EXTREMELY lucky that Furcal didn’t take the 10M he offered him and Peavy didn’t want to come to Atlanta, which would’ve cost us Yunel. He hasn’t fixed our most glaring need, an outfield bat.
Opinion
February 9th, 2010
4:20 pm
I want John Smoltz back….he can still pitch I tell ya….he performs better in an Atlanta uniform…see track record
Age is never a problem with smoltz
Lew
February 9th, 2010
4:21 pm
Opinion-And what old talent would you trade away? Chipper, who can’t BE traded without his approval? or McCann, who just won his third Silver Slugger award in four years? Everyone else we have who is old enough to qualify either just came to the Braves (Saito and Wagner) or was untradeable like Lowe. So who you got in mind?
Opinion
February 9th, 2010
4:22 pm
anyone who wants to get rid of Yunel Escobar at $500,000 a year for a $15 million dollar man is the biggest idiot in the world…..period.
Opinion
February 9th, 2010
4:23 pm
well for one thing Lew, 26 yr old McCann is not an old player…..I have nothing to say to you if you believe that.
Opinion
February 9th, 2010
4:25 pm
Greg Norton would of been a good old player to get rid of last year……we see how that worked out.
could’a gotten at least some Big League Chew for him i think
Deriter
February 9th, 2010
4:28 pm
Unfortunately, Bradley is right on this one. The Braves can’t be winners when they deal away their best pitcher and then sign position players & pitchers who are in the midst of rehabilitation. If you ain’t the lead dog, the scenery never changes. In this case, the Braves will be looking at the behinds of the Phillies & Mets and maybe the Marlins as well.
Lew
February 9th, 2010
4:32 pm
jesse stone-How in hell can you judge someone on deals that DIDN’T happen? Did he give up Yunel for Peavy? Didn’t FW call the deal off when they asked for too much? Isn’t that what you wanted? You’re going to hammer the Dude because he did what you would have? Conflicted are we?
The Furcal thing might have worked but didn’t happen either, so anything you choose to pound into the ground on THAT deal is nothing but rank speculation as it never happened. Maybe you can assess a negative, but then the rest of us are merely human, apparently unlike you.
As for Garrett Anderson-who would YOU have picked up for $2.5 million? And as far as GA’s peformance went, he wasn’t ever going to tear up the league defensively and the Dude hit .260 with 13 HR and 61 RBI – a season that was well worth what they paid for him, even if not up to YOUR expectations.
Time to face facts-you can put superstars at every position if you have the payroll the Yankees and Red Sox have- We don’t. You go with the best you can afford (and our payroll isn’t nearly as shabby at $95 mil as some seem to think-nice to spend someone else’s millions, ain’t it?) and that’s exactly what Wren did. He may not be perfect, but then again, no one is except y’all amateur GM’s here in cyberspace.
Lew
February 9th, 2010
4:36 pm
OPinion-The point was there ARE no other older players. With the exception of those we just signed, we had a young team with Yunel, McCann, Prado, Diaz and McLouth. There aren’t any old players with large salaries TO trade, except Chipper, who as mentioned cant be traded and Lowe who they couldn’t trade. ou make a moot point. I repeat, who would you trade? Did I forget someone?
Lew
February 9th, 2010
4:37 pm
Yeah-Other teams were just lining up to trade us a bag of dirty socks for Greg Norton and his sub .200 BA. Whatever.
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
4:39 pm
Lew- It was Kevin Towers and Jake Peavy that killed the deal. If it were up to Wren, Yunel would be a Padre and Fookie would’ve been the Braves biggest FA flop. Like I said, he was lucky.
Anderson was a liability defensively and on the bases. Most MLB outfielders given the number of ABs that Loaf had would’ve put up at least those same offensive numbers and undoubtedly would have beenbetter on defense.
Lew, are you saying that you will NEVER criticize anyone here on these blogs, because nobody’s perfect?
Alan
February 9th, 2010
4:39 pm
Mark, I agree with your 4:12 post, which criticizes the Braves for signing Kawakami after they had signed Lowe and traded for Vazquez. That added $7 million+ per year for 3 years for what amounts to their 5th starter. Way too extravagant. But earlier, you said that you didn’t have a problem with Frank Wren’s moves last offseason when it reality you did. And still do. Because it could be argued that, if the Braves did NOT sign KK last year, they would not have felt compelled to dump salary this offseason. Now, let me go back to Melky. Jesse Stone (4:17) wrote that the Yankees played Melky because they didn’t need his offense. Really? His offense wasn’t bad, you know. Not much power, I admit, but the guy was hardly an automatic out. He delivered some clutch hits, he always hustled, and he played solid defense. The projected outfield this year of Diaz/Cabrera, McLouth and Heyward is vastly superior — offense and defense — than last year’s opening-day outfield of Anderson, Schafer and Francouer.
Gary
February 9th, 2010
4:41 pm
I agree that losing Vasquez is tough, and wished we could have got more for him. But I also recognize tht it was the most logical thing to do consideing the strength of the starting rotation. I don’t agree with those that say Hudson and Lowe are bottom of the rotation pitchers and I think too many forget about some of the memorable gems KK pitched as well. I think with a year to adapt to NL hitters, KK will be more consistent, with a lot more quality starts. This could be a great year for Atlanta’s starters. I’m much more worried about the aging closers and the lack of a big bat than I am about starting pitching. I think short of a rash of injuries, Braves fans will be very pleased with this pitching staff next October when we finally return to the playoffs.
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
4:41 pm
The deal, I believe was Gorkys, Escobar, and a pitcher. And that was Wren’s offer.
bvillebaron
February 9th, 2010
4:41 pm
Mark and Others:
The fact that Buster Olney rates the Phillies rotation higher than Atlanta while projecting J.A. Happ and Jamie Moyer as their No. 4 and 5 starters, not to mention Joe Blanton as No. 3, should tell you all you need to know about his analysis. Are you kidding me or what, Buster?
For all of you Hudson detractors, particularly those who claim he hasn’t been “lights out” since arriving in Atlanta, here are some comparisons between him and Vazquez from 2005 through 2009 (i.e. the time Hudson has been in Atlanta) just for the record.
Hudson
2005 14-9 W/L 192 IP 3.52 ERA
2006 13-12 W/L 218.1 IP 4.86 ERA
2007 16-10 W/L 224.1 IP 3.33 ERA
2008 11-7 W/L 142.0 IP 3.17 ERA
2009 2-1 W/L 42.1 IP 3.61 ERA
Totals 56-39 819 IP 3.76 ERA
Vazquez:
2005 11-15 W/L 215.2 IP 4.42 ERA
2006 11-12 W/L 202.2 IP 4.84 ERA
2007 15-8 W/L 216.2 IP 3.74 ERA
2008 12-16 W/L 208.1 IP 4.67 ERA
2009 15-10 W/L 219.1 IP 2.87 ERA
Totals 64-61 W/L 1062.2 IP 4.09 ERA
If you take out 2006 when Huddy still won 13 games, his totals during that time period look like this:
43-27 W/L 601 IP 3.37 ERA
If you take out Vazquez’s career year last year (and it ain’t even close folks that this was his best year ever), his totals during that time period look like this:
49-51 W/L 843.1 IP 4.41 ERA
While I realize that statistics don’t always tell the whole story, the fact is that there is nothing in Vazquez’s history that even remotely suggests he would have the type of season this year that he did last year (he also ain’t the second coming of John Smoltz or Greg Maddux either folks).
I guess I don’t know squat about baseball, but I think maybe Buster Olney ought to like you know do a little homework before he writes his article.