Bradley’s Buzz: ESPN’s Buster doesn’t love Braves’ rotation
This, as you doubtless know, is not a recent picture. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
We keep hearing that the Braves’ rotation will be just as good without the man who finished fourth in the National League Cy Young voting in 2009. The (thin) reasoning: That Javier Vazquez was unlikely to have such a season again, but that Tim Hudson — who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2008 and who has won two games since — will absolutely return to top-of-the-rotation form. This, I say again, assumes a lot.
I haven’t quite bought it, and I note for your edification that the estimable Buster Olney of ESPN.com hasn’t yet, either. Writing for ESPN’s Insiders, Buster O. lists his top five rotations — top six, actually — and somehow doesn’t include the Braves’. (Link requires registration.) His rankings:
- 1. Red Sox: Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, Tim Wakefield.
- 2. Yankees: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Javier Vazquez, Phil Hughes.
- 3. White Sox: Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Freddy Garcia.
- 4. Angels: Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, Joel Pineiro.
- 5. Cardinals: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, Brad Penny and “somebody else.”
- 5a. Phillies: Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, Jamie Moyer.
Of the latter, Olney writes: “The Phillies would have been No. 1 if they had Halladay, [Cliff] Lee and Hamels 1-2-3.” And what of the Braves? Here goes:
“I probably would have placed [them] at No. 3 if not for the trade of Javier Vazquez.”
So I guess that makes two among us who haven’t quite grasped the offseason Zen of Wren — Buster O. and yours truly. But you are, as ever, free to tell me how obstinately obtuse I am.
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341 comments Add your comment
Ramblin Wrecker
February 9th, 2010
2:41 pm
I meant to say that if they signed Damon, and Heyward didn’t make the club, they could play Damon in LF, McLouth in CF and Diaz in RF, but if he did make the club they would go LF Damon, RF Heyward and McLouth/Melky in CF (depending on who they might deal).
Ramblin Wrecker
February 9th, 2010
2:42 pm
Truthseeker, didn’t mean to imply you knocked Diaz.
chuck
February 9th, 2010
2:42 pm
So even if we only win 50% of the time thru the first two spots in the rotation, and then we win 70% from the last 3 spots, that is still a 95 win year.
Nativebird
February 9th, 2010
2:42 pm
When your Power-hitting-RBI-producing-Long-Ball-Monster-First-basement is Adam LaRoche, “The Sequel”?…it is TIME to trade some abundance in pitching to acquire it. However, Melky Cabrera isn’t exactly what we had in mind Frank. .
NCbravesFAN
February 9th, 2010
2:43 pm
Wrecker… no problems with Matty Baseball here! I love that guy, love his energy, love his attitude. He and Prado were the catalyst for the second half surge last year. I wish it didnt take Bobby and Frank so long to see that KJ and Frenchy were dead weight!
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
2:43 pm
The Tigers coveted Mike Dunn in the Granderson trade, but didn’t get him. I would like to flip Dunn and Melky Church to the Tigers for Wilkin Ramirez.
chuck
February 9th, 2010
2:44 pm
I disagree about the D…up the middle we are pretty strong…Prado is better than Kelly, and Escobar is special…McLouth won GGs in Pitt….not exactly Furcal and Andruw, but not horrible either.
Ramblin Wrecker
February 9th, 2010
2:44 pm
Truthseeker,
Glad to see somebody else come to Kawakami’s defense. The guy was solid.
I keep telling people he pitched quite well after April, and had some dominating games especially against top tier starters. He beat Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and Dice K last season. I doubt any other pitcher in the bigs can boast a trifecta that impressive that wasn’t named Roy or Johan.
chuck
February 9th, 2010
2:46 pm
Additionally, this year finding a RH power bat was tougher than most….everything out there was LH.
We also got insurance for when Chipper does his annual thing…people want to dump on Huddy? How bout complaining that we paid Chipper a $hitton of $$ for 120-130 games a year. Last year being an aberration (although he should have taken off a week or two, he was absolutely dreadful in Aug)
chuck
February 9th, 2010
2:46 pm
Dragonslayer-san…
NCbravesFAN
February 9th, 2010
2:47 pm
Nativebird- I think you can expect the same from Laroche and Glaus. Adam doesnt play for the first 80 games and Glaus might miss 80. Either way if we can get .275, 25-30 HR, 90-10 RBIs out of 1b I would be happy!
Moe the mechanic
February 9th, 2010
2:48 pm
Acquiring Melky and a POSSIBLE future major leaguer for Vazquez is like acquiring a spare tire and a case of oil for a carburetor, when your car doesn’t have a steering wheel.
chuck
February 9th, 2010
2:49 pm
Mark, per your Heyman article, if Hanson or Jurrjens doesn’t start opening day, I’ll be shocked. Both those guys have better stuff than JV.
That is, if Bobby doesn’t do some ceremonial thing and throw a vet out there…if this is a meritocracy, both the kids have earned it based on both last year’s finish, and what’s ahead.
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
2:50 pm
NC…except we KNOW Laroche can play a good defensive first base.
Mark Bradley
February 9th, 2010
2:50 pm
I will concede this: Derek Lowe has proved he’s a big-time pitcher. I never understood why the Braves seemed to sour on him so fast. He works hard, is a great teammate, never gets hurt … and he won 15 games even in a down year.
chuck
February 9th, 2010
2:51 pm
Can I take some bets on how well JV is going to perform this year?
Let’s set the ERA over under at 4.20…and the win total at 13…i am going over and over…and then i am predicting he doesn’t even get to start a game in the playoffs.
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
2:52 pm
I have a friend that works in the Cardinals media relations dept. and he couldn’t believe that the “big bat” that Wren signed was Troy Glaus.
NCbravesFAN
February 9th, 2010
2:52 pm
If Adam Dunn can play 1b than Troy Glaus (who had the highest fielding % of ALL 3b in 2008) can do a decent job. Especially when you give him a whole offseason to practice. I agree that if we threw Chipper on 1b he might struggle initially but he would come around. I have faith in Troy.
Lowcountry Bulldawg
February 9th, 2010
2:53 pm
Frank Wrenn = Willie Martinez of the Braves!
What a polarizing figure!
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
2:53 pm
chuck- Of course he won’t be as good this year. He’s playing at Yankee Stadium at Williamsport and he’s facing an extra hitter in each lineup. Win totals are a farce when judging a pitcher.
TruthSeeker
February 9th, 2010
2:54 pm
chuck, you think JJ has better stuff than Vazquez? I love Jair, but Javy had some of the most disgusting stuff I’ve ever seen.
chuck
February 9th, 2010
2:54 pm
Jesse…why….his year in STL was great prior to the injury? I am flummoxed. Your friend drinks too much of the Budweiser.
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
2:54 pm
Who says Adam Dunn can play first base?
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
2:55 pm
That was 2 years ago. Who knows how truly healthy he is? He had some Pujols guy batting around him.
NCbravesFAN
February 9th, 2010
2:56 pm
I agree chuck. JV is a pitcher who needs comfort, thats why O.guillen called him out as not being a big game pitcher. He struggled in NY before and he will struggle again. The comfort of having B.Cox as your ever-supportive coach is a big reason why he prospered last year. Put him in the bandbox in NY and his fly-ball pitching style will yield at least a dozen more HR’s and a .500 record.
chuck
February 9th, 2010
2:56 pm
I think JJ thinks more on the mound…and has better control of his stuff…and pitches better to contact, so he can scheme thru a lineup a little better.
outright stuff, it’s hard to argue with JV’s year last year…i haven’t seen him throw like that consistently for the 10 years i’ve seen him….
He has a touch of the Bret Saberhagen disease, on some years, and then disappointingly off the next.
monty
February 9th, 2010
2:57 pm
No reason, even with the loss of JV, to believe we won’t have a top 4 pitching staff. The sad part (so far) of losing JV is not that we can’t slide Hudson in and that he won’t give us something similar, but that most of us believed giving up JV would mean getting a really good everyday starting OF. If losing JV means we get to sign Damon then perhaps it will have been worth it.(Melky certainly isn’t) 3-4 years from now “if” the Yankee prospect we got becomes a dominant starter then it becomes a stroke of genuise, still not sure how we are better “this year” for losing JV.
chuck
February 9th, 2010
2:58 pm
Well, if Chipper returns to form, that is a pretty nice guy in front to get him some looks, and Esco is one of the best hitters in the NL with RISP…so that’s your 3 and your 6, with Mac probably hitting 5th…not a bad bunch of guys who make regular contact. Heyward may bat 7th…Diaz 8th…
If all these guys have reasonably good years, it will be far more support than even Pujols by himself could provide.
NCbravesFAN
February 9th, 2010
2:58 pm
Adam Dunn is “allowed” to play first. Im not saying he is good at it, I was just trying to support my point by stating that even BAD fielders are acceptable at 1b.
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
3:00 pm
IF Chipper returns to form…IF Glaus is healthy…IF Heyward proves he’s ready… He also had Ludwick hitting around him as well.
monty
February 9th, 2010
3:00 pm
The Yankees were foolish not to pursue Lowe and his groundball inducing sinker in that bandbox they play in. I agree that JV is way better suited for Atlanta than NY.
chuck
February 9th, 2010
3:00 pm
Monty hit the nail on the head re: the sad part of the JV trade…we all had higher hopes.
But looking at what we got, what we have left in the rotation, we really have no reason for sour grapes. We just need to exercise patience, or flip Dunn/Melky or package them into the pieces we need.
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
3:01 pm
He’s ALLOWED to play first base for the f&^&^&ng Nationals. Is that our standard now?
chuck
February 9th, 2010
3:02 pm
Ludwick is merely OK…i am skeptical of late bloomers…they don’t often sustain.
As for the ifs…every team has ifs…name me one sure thing. Our ifs at least have demonstrated high levels of success in the past.
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
3:03 pm
I’d rather have Dunn in LF and not hold my breath every time a grounder or low throw comes to first. I watched Dunn practice playing first last year in Viera. He looked more like a goalie than a firstbaseman
chuck
February 9th, 2010
3:03 pm
Again…i love Chipper…will go to the Coop when it’s his time. But when we sit here complaining about salaries and how they hamstring us from going and paying for bats, think about how much we pay him and how much we have to cross our fingers he stays healthy. And we knew that going in to the deal.
Tribute pay is a thing of the past, and I hope it’s the last time we do it.
Jesse Stone
February 9th, 2010
3:04 pm
Ludwick put up better numbers than Glaus that year. If Ludwick is “just OK”, what is Glaus?
JCarson10
February 9th, 2010
3:06 pm
Mark Bradley, I have a couple questions for you. 1. How in the world can the Cardinals be in the top 5 with only 4 starters as of right now? and their 4th is Brad Penny who had a decent second half last year….absurd. 2. Javier Vasquez was great for us last year but it was a “Career Year” from a guy who has a career ERA over 4! and just for the record and ERA is an AVERAGE which from my understanding is a pretty good clue as to what you can expect from a pitcher just like career batting average. 3. How are the Braves not there? I’m sorry the rotation Led the League in ERA last year and we will get a full year of Hanson and Hudson (who is head and shoulders above Vasquez in their careers) plus there is no way D Lowe doesn’t post a better ERA…this List is just disgusting IMO but what do I know right?
Will
February 9th, 2010
3:12 pm
When is the first NFL preseason game? I miss football season already.
Andrew
February 9th, 2010
3:17 pm
Debbie Downer strikes again.
chuck
February 9th, 2010
3:21 pm
Glaus is a RH power hitter with holes in his swing who has a way better career resume…he has experience. But invariably, when healthy, he hits 30 HR or more, and drives in close to 100 runs.
Again, from the right side, which is what this team needed.
Jared
February 9th, 2010
3:21 pm
Jesse, why would should we care about someone who works in media relations? Does that give him some kind of baseball knowledge that we don’t have? What is media relations, anyways?
As for Dunn, the Nationals 1B. I’d take him today if we made a deal and I’m sure you would, too.
Chuck, Chipper has taken less and less money over and over. He is consistently taking less money than the Braves are even willing to pay him for the good of the team. Should he just give all of it up and play for free? Would you? If the Braves offered him 8 mil a year I bet he’d probably take it.
JCarson, right on. The list is ridiculous ESPN biased propaganda. Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies… blah blah blah.
Nativebird
February 9th, 2010
3:22 pm
Pitching – smitching. We got pitching. We got enough pitching. Good Frank…good boy. Your a genius. Now, about those pesky 3.2 runs you need per game. hmmmm.
Braves Fan 84
February 9th, 2010
3:23 pm
Hi Bradley,
Can you post( link) the articles you created last year about the Braves move and your opinion? I am curious to know what you thought about Javy.
Daybed Wagmoe
February 9th, 2010
3:25 pm
A problem I have with Buster’s picks has to do with including the Cardinals in the top 5. I know that they’ve got the two Cy Young runners-up, but there’s not a 5th starter in the rotation at this point. It’d be fine to say that the front four are so good that they could slide Mark Redman or Chuck James into that 5th spot and still be one of the top 5, but he prefaced his answers by saying, “keep in mind that we’re looking at the entire rotation, spots 1-5″ (paraphrase). If that’s the case, I’d think that the Phillies’ belongs in spot 5, not 5a, that the Braves should be up there, or maybe even the Cubs.
chuck
February 9th, 2010
3:27 pm
Can’t wait to see all of you guys who will have “known all along” when we get a WC or win the division this year.
I’ll be disappointed with less than 92 wins. I have high expectations. The pitching is there, we have an AS Catcher, a GG CF, potential ROY, HOF 3rd baseman, and a 5 tool SS who is coming into his own…plenty of pieces by the accolades alone. I’ll go down any lineup in the NL and find holes (save for the Phils, who have less)…
monty
February 9th, 2010
3:29 pm
Jcarson10
A 4.19 ERA for an AL pitcher isn’t bad, and I would suggest it is better than avg. for that league. You usually see pitchers’s ERA’s come down significantly when traded from AL to NL and vice-versa, often times by .50 to as much a 1.00 runs per game. An AL ERA of 4.19 would be comparable to around 3.50-3.70 ERA in the NL, IMHO.
chuck
February 9th, 2010
3:31 pm
Heyward readiness question…interested in what your guys take is…
A) Does he need 200-300 ABs in AAA? (A nice byproduct of which will be avoiding Super2 for a year)
B) If he has a decent spring but not great, is there anyway we can send him down without looking cheap? Or it being interpreted as such.
C) If he has a great spring, we can’t avoid looking cheap if we send him down under the umbrella of additional “seasoning”…will this hurt us, and be remembered when it’s time for his agent to put the screws to us…the last thing we want is our franchise player thinking we nickel and dimed him.
I think if we send him down it sends a message that we aren’t as serious about winning as we need to be, and that we are more concerned with saving a buck. My confidence barometer really hinges on this decision more than any other.
Mark Bradley
February 9th, 2010
3:32 pm
I was underwhelmed when the Braves acquired Vazquez, I must report. But I soon became whelmed.
bullman198302
February 9th, 2010
3:33 pm
so let me get this straight the braves rotation is not elite because Mark Bradley and Buster Olney say so???? you are telling me that javier vasquez is a better pitcher than tim hudson and you guys make a living out of this???? u 2 are a joke we have the best rotation in the NL period….