Two astute bloggers help dumb ol’ me assess the Hawks
A Smoove swoop. Note absence of swooners in background. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
The Hawks, it’s safe to say, have been better than most of us envisioned. But now, the season’s midpoint having just passed, the discussion changes. Is better good enough?
Because I know you tire of my bloviation — heck, I tire of my bloviation — I’ve decided to give you folks a slight break. I’ve enlisted the help of two of the best Hawks bloggers around: Bret LaGree of Hoopinion and Jason Walker of The Human Highlight Blog. (I would encourage you to patronize both sites; I do.)
Question No. 1: Are the Hawks legit contenders?
LaGree: “The Hawks have turned the East into a four-team race and they’re not necessarily the fourth team in that race. Obviously the path to the NBA finals would be much easier if they draw Boston in the second round than if have to go through Cleveland and Orlando. Even though the Hawks would not be favored in a seven-game series against either Cleveland or Orlando, they’re capable of beating either of those teams.”
Walker: “The Hawks have the talent to seriously compete for the championship, yes. At this halfway point in the season, the Hawks are among the elite in all advanced statistical categories, so the talent is producing at a top shelf rate. On the court, they have dispatched the Celtics three times [once even with Kevin Garnett], showed an even matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and beaten some top Western teams [Denver, Dallas, Portland, Utah, Phoenix] proving their mettle as a top team there as well … This is the season the Hawks get out of the second round of the playoffs.”
Me: The Hawks are good enough to win two playoff series and reach the Eastern finals. I don’t know if they can win three.
Question No. 2: Do the Hawks need to make a midseason trade?
LaGree: “I think about this a lot — because who doesn’t like hypothetical transactions? — but I struggle to see a plausible scenario where the Hawks have someone to trade that another team wants and they can afford to give up. Barring a serious injury, I expect they’ll stand pat. Which shouldn’t surprise us as continuity would be the defining characteristic of this team’s ascent.”
Walker: “What might be missing from the Hawks is a super-duper-star to make a path to a championship easier, but I don’t believe the Hawks are going to or should disrupt what they have to make such a deal. They are going to have to go the Detroit Piston share-the-ball route to a championship.”
Me: I don’t see an obvious personnel match that can be gotten before the trade deadline. Antawn Jamison of the Wizards, you say? He’s 33, he makes $11 million and his contract has two more years to run. And don’t the Hawks have to save money to keep Joe Johnson this summer?
Question No. 3:Why aren’t more fans coming to Philips Arena? (The Hawks are 21st in a 30-team league in home attendance.)
LaGree: “We had a good discussion about attendance on the site last week. The consensus seemed to be some combination of: 1. Traffic makes it difficult to get to Philips by 7 p.m. on weeknights from a fair percentage of the metro area; 2. Joe Johnson’s style of play, though effective, doesn’t capture the imagination of the casual fan that checked out on the Hawks sometime during the previous decade; 3. There just may not be a lot of basketball fans here.”
Walker: “Atlanta fans need the big draw to take them to sporting events. Big names and big events get their attention and their dollars. The Hawks packed them in when they had Dominique. The Falcons [did] with Michael Vick, the Braves with the national attention in the early ’90s … The Hawks aren’t there yet — but they’re getting closer. As of today, they are 10th in road attendance, their best showing in a long time and a litmus test of their ‘it’ factor. For over a decade, and even in the Lenny Wilkens years, this team hasn’t been the most fun to watch, but they are now and being at Philips Arena when things are happening is a great use of the sports dollar.”
Me: I thought the crowds would have picked up by now, but I’ve about given up trying to figure out the Atlanta sports fans. But I do think there are enough people in this city who like basketball to fill an arena on a regular basis. Maybe by May it will happen. Maybe.
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134 comments Add your comment
nique
January 25th, 2010
1:15 pm
my theory on attendance: people don’t go to the games because decent tix are too expensive, and most people here live in the burbs and don’t want to schlep. please note that i don’t live in the burbs nor do i condone it.
Daniel
January 25th, 2010
1:16 pm
Ree Roe- Joe is not going to another team. The economics of basketball don’t favor free agents leaving their original team. A max contract offer for another team is only 15% greater than the years of service so for Joe that will be roughly 16-17 milion per year, which the Hawks have already offered. Another team that offers more has to pay double above that in luxury tax. Your own team can pay more without salary cap hit (i.e. Bird rule). In fact it makes resigning Joe as a free agent easier on the salary cap structure for the Hawks. So either NY or NJ will just have to lose their minds and offer a huge deal which will fianancially cripple them and Joe would have to want to play for them and they stink. Or he will go to another team for less money, which at this point in his career would be stupid given that this will likely represent his last big payday contract. Plus, the Hawks are contenders now, did you notice?
Art Vandelay
January 25th, 2010
1:18 pm
I think part of the attendance/recognition issue is that the Hawks’ marketing and PR teams do a lousy job of calling attention to this team’s outstanding play. The only place I EVER see an ad for them is during one of their locally televised games, and nobody from the team seems to be reaching out to the national outlets like ESPN with stories that could be of interest. Maybe they take out a banner ad or two on ajc.com and even something in the print version (there is still a print version, right Mark?), but overall this team’s publicity machine is pathetic.
bob
January 25th, 2010
1:18 pm
the hawks would have a few more wins if they did not have the 8 on 5 disadvantage and a lack of trips to the foul line when playing teams with “super stars”.
Georgia didn't win the East in 07'
January 25th, 2010
1:23 pm
NBA = TBA, the Thug Basketball Association……………………when does College Football start?
Mark Bradley
January 25th, 2010
1:25 pm
Yes, Art, the AJC does publish a print edition. And a fine one it is.
JC
January 25th, 2010
1:29 pm
Walker is spot-on with the big-names getting butts in seats at Philips. Go to a game against LA, Cleveland or Boston and you’ll see a packed house with more Bryant, James and Garnett jerseys than Johnson, Smith and Bibby. These are locals – the same ones who light up the message boards every time Iverson becomes available with poorly-reasoned arguments on why the Hawks should sign him.
JabboRockefeller
January 25th, 2010
1:33 pm
If the Hawks were in the Northern Burbs, attendance would be MUCH higher. Lotza folks are afraid of Atlanta after dark.
Daniel
January 25th, 2010
1:34 pm
So Mark.. The game 5 26point, 5assist performance doesn’t count? Or the game four 15 point, 5 assist, 3 rebound performance in a game that was a defensive struggle count? What constitutes a good playoff performance then? Good grief… We won those games remember?
Stockdog
January 25th, 2010
1:47 pm
LowCountry Bulldawg, I feel your pain. Luckily for me, my kids are grown, so it’s just me and my wife. As for the Hawks getting to the finals, I think that it is solely about match ups. If we get the right match up in the second round we will be alright. As for re-signing Joe Johnson, there is no back up plan in place. It is Joe of bust. He wants the max. The question is whether or not he deserves the max contract. I don’t think he is worth the price
WonderDawg
January 25th, 2010
1:48 pm
Mark, everytime I let myself get convinced that the Hawks can contend with Cleveland and Orlando, I watch the Cavs play anybody, and watch the refs dictate the outcome of the games by calling touch fouls on any player who is in the same zip code as King James. I saw the same thing the other night with Durant, who got to the line more times than the entire Hawks team! I’m not a conspiracy theorist otherwise, but do you (or anyone else) notice this??
Volman
January 25th, 2010
1:56 pm
Good job, Mr. Bradley. I’ve been in a bit of hiding since the whole “l**e ki***n” debacle in Knoxville. Yes, I blurred out his name like a curse word, and kept it lower-case.
I have to agree with you, the Hawks can win two rounds this year, but I can see them getting “upset” too. I sure hope not, though.
It’s fun to see this team grow up… Having had season tickets for four years now, it’s great seeing them getting better and better. They CAN make it to the finals this year, but they are going to need help from the referees…And no, that just means the referees call a fair and balanced game.
Loved your “call out” blog of the NBA and that criminal David Stern. There needs to be more of this. You guys need to rip him a new one.
Keep it going Mr. Bradley, and go Hawks!
WonderDawg
January 25th, 2010
1:59 pm
Mark, everytime I convince myself the Hawks can compete with the Clevelands and Orlandos, I watch the Cavs play anyone and the refs control the outcome of the game by calling a touch foul on anyone in the same zip code of King James. Same thing with Kevin Durant in Phillips last week. He went to the line more than the whole Hawks lineup! Does this make you scratch your head like me?
HawksGottaGetIt
January 25th, 2010
2:03 pm
I think if the Hawks will make a trade, I think the trade should come in the way of Marvin Williams or honestly even Mike Bibby. Bibby has lost a step or two anyway, but he does provide leadership. I think the Hawks are missing a legitimate ‘Big Man’ to shut down the middle…If somebody breaks down their D, they get killed in the paint. Horford is good, but he’s not center material. They need somebody to stuff the ball, and make the other team afraid to step into the paint…Our perimeter, 1:1 D is phenomenonal. We’re just soft in the middle…
Mark Bradley
January 25th, 2010
2:07 pm
Thanks, Volman. Condolences on Kiffin. You’re well rid of him.
Russ, the Temporary Mascot
January 25th, 2010
2:08 pm
I read the print version. It is very absorbent.
Mark Bradley
January 25th, 2010
2:09 pm
I forgot Game 5, Daniel. That counts, yes. But I will say that, from my distant perspective in the mezzanine of Philips Arena, it did appear Joe was fighting it the whole series. He finally broke through, though.
Sonny Clusters
January 25th, 2010
2:17 pm
When we was playing ball we were invited to Dominique’s house and it was big! We saw the big “DW” on the gate and thought it was Darrell Waltrip’s place but Dominique was the one that answered the door. When we got inside he autographed some cupcakes and we ate them. Jeff said he’d always have that autograph with him but that thought passed with the cupcake. Since that time we don’t get our food autographed.
KBP
January 25th, 2010
2:22 pm
Marvin is not the problem for this team. The first team is built around Joe and the second team is built around Jamal. If they shared the ball more, Al, Josh, and Marvin would have better numbers. I think Coach Woodson may be Marvin’s problem just as he was Boris Diaw’s problem. Right now, he is Jeff Teague’s problem too. I am a Coach Woddson fan, big-time, but certain players just will not flourish under him. That’s not an indictment against him, it is just the way it is.
WonderDawg
January 25th, 2010
2:25 pm
I have hopes for Teague, but have yet to see him make a jump shot. Did he shoot the ball in college?
Reid in EAV
January 25th, 2010
2:33 pm
This probably shows how out of touch I am, but recently I’ve investigated taking my 7-year-old to Hawks games several times. Now, I live a mere 3 miles from downtown and know lots of, um, “secret” parking spots in and around the arena (plus MARTA’s always an easy option for us) so the usual suburban objections don’t apply to us. Plus, we have lots of experience getting in and out of professional sporting events, with our tradition of going to nearly every Braves Sunday afternoon home game (and running the bases afterward.)
But whether you blame it on NBA salaries, smaller seating capacity or fewer home games, the fact remains that decent Hawks tickets (i.e. not those in the rafters behind the goals) bring about serious sticker shock. I was absolutely amazed that I couldn’t really get anywhere down the sidelines (even in the rafters) for less than $20 apiece.
That said, we’ll probably capitalize on the Wednesday promotions that has all the upper bowl tickets going for $15 each. But still, being a school night, that’s not ideal for my daughter (though it suits me fine.)
Dr. Warren
January 25th, 2010
2:43 pm
Is Jason Walker accidentally channeling Bill Simmons with his “Super-duper star” reference, or is he copying him outright without a citation?
Willie Coyote
January 25th, 2010
2:48 pm
As far as attendance:
Until there is a way for people, from as far away as Macon or Columbus to get off work and get up to ATL during the week, crowds will be sporadic. When you look at cities like Chicago or NY, people can hop on a train and get to the game. If you don’t live in the immediate metro area, it is next to impossible to make it to Phillips by tipoff without taking time off work.
Willie Coyote
January 25th, 2010
2:56 pm
As far as trades, I like Troy Murphy for this team. It’s probably not doable but his rebounding and ability to scorre inside and (especially) outside would make this team better. But that’s just wishful thinking on my part.
THHB
January 25th, 2010
3:06 pm
Dr. Warren,
Totally accidental, though I have enjoyed reading Simmons over the years. As many words and articles as he has posted in the last decade—I’m sure it happens often
Kathleen
January 25th, 2010
3:25 pm
Hey matt6buckeye–Can’t believe you don’t think Nique is a good commentator. My husband and I love him. He is smart and entertaining and has excellent rapport with Bob. He’s a big part of the reason we tune in religiously to watch the Hawks. My husband is a musician and wants to write a song of Dominiquisms.
Dr. Warren
January 25th, 2010
3:47 pm
Gotcha. It is a convincing NBA theory, not unique to Simmons. But as you’ve acknowledged, the super-duper part belongs to him. (Though he pilfered it himself from somebody in the 70’s, of course).
Dr. Warren
January 25th, 2010
3:49 pm
SONNY CLUSTERS–did you catch my note a few blogs back about DQ here in Shanghai? It’s popular, especially the green tea flavor. Krispy-Kreme opened up, also, just down the block, last month. There may be some sort of endorsement deal I can work for you if you can learn a little Mandarin.
BPJ
January 25th, 2010
4:21 pm
We’re going to find out how good a coach Woodson is. He needs to get the Hawks to: (a) play intense, team defense every night, every quarter; (b) move the ball around better in half-court offense (c) get Williams and Pachulia to play closer to their potential.
The other factor is injuries. Last year’s Hawks playoffs team had 3 starters hobbled by injury, and a weak bench. Teams that get to the finals may not be injury free (who is late in the season?), but injuries are usually less of a factor for the finalists. The best thing about the Hawks improved bench is that the starters are not compiling so many minutes, which means less fatigue and lower likelihood of injuries at the end of the season.
Mark Bradley
January 25th, 2010
4:37 pm
Jason swears any resemblance to Bill Simmons is purely coincidental, Dr. Warren. And I have to admit I didn’t know that was a Simmons catch-hyphenate. I would have guessed Dickie V. coined it.
Vic
January 25th, 2010
5:14 pm
I DON’T think the Hawks are contenders because they’re too inconsistent. That’s been the case for years. You won’t consistently cheer for a team that doesn’t play that way. Of cours JJ and Crawford will get their numbers because of all the iso’s that are run for them. But unlike the Championship Pistons, the Hawks don’t move the ball enough and force the defense to work. Look at last season’s playoffs. They would win, but the losses were horrible. As they say, you live and die by the jump shot. I think Horford is not being utilized enough. You can tell he works on his game, but yet there is no inside/outside ball movement. That’s what a better coach will give this team. Once a coaching change is made, this team will go to the next level.
Peter
January 25th, 2010
5:21 pm
This is a team that has potential, but lacks intensity and real desire at times.
Why do they start so slow many games ?
Why is Marvin Williams missing most of the time?
Why is Joe Johnson taking so many one on one shots, and stifling the Offense?
What is the Offense ?
Why is Josh smith taking so many long shots when wide open, he could dribble in a step then shoot?
It seems the team is VERY ATHLETIC, and uses that as a crutch, and doesn’t have that Micheal Jordan type killer instinct to win from Second One as the game starts.
ILL-logical
January 25th, 2010
5:27 pm
As good as the Hawks have been this season, there are lingering doubts about the post season because of the inconsistent play to date and ,my personal favorite, the caliber of the coaching.
The coach, who is maligned daily, has done a great job as a baby sitter for the young talent.However,I contend that with some tweaks-the Spirit group’s budget only allows for tweaks- the playoff prospects would improve bigtime:
1. Give Coach Drew reposibility for the , including line up changes;
2. Start Jamal and bring Bibby and Marvin off of the bench for added fire power and experiece: Bibby become Eddie house but with a handle and Marvin can sub for Josh an Joe; and
3.Start Randolph Morris at the 5. He is the one of the few on the current roster who has heft and height-a legit 6′10”. Give him 10-15 minutes a game and then adjust to whatever the other team’s defense offers. The Hawks can go big; small ;fast-Teague becomes a defensive stopper for the small,guards who torch us now and bring an array of talent off of the bench to adapt to any adjustments made.
The point is that even though none of these changes will ever be instituted by the current regime, there are ways to get better without breaking what little bank there is available. and it could produce the brand of baskestball that would put more buts in seats on a regular and continious basis.
Arlo
January 25th, 2010
5:34 pm
Man, who cares. I can’t wait for the “Way too long” NBA season to be over! I lost interest (though not much) when Michael Jordan retired!
drmaryb
January 25th, 2010
5:36 pm
This is the NBA man! & We ain’t got no money to go to a Game? We Po’ Folks can sit on our couches and watch at home man! (have some fun with the vernacular!) LOL!
London Hawks Fan
January 25th, 2010
5:37 pm
I’d love to go to a Hawks game but I live in London. Why don’t you send them over here for one of those spreading the American Culture games.
I remember going as a kid when they played in Alexander Memorial for awhile. Saw Artis Gilmore swat a few shots that night.
drmaryb
January 25th, 2010
5:42 pm
Does Joe Johnson have any emotions? He looks catatonic. Does he have a girlfriend? & What do they do? Just sit and look at each other!
Joe is a super-talent and we need him more than he needs us – but does he ever smile or yell or scream? This guy is a 5-tool player but his persona is more of a silent-assassin. ssssh! don’t say a word… lol
Nick
January 25th, 2010
5:44 pm
$95 to sit in the lower levels far back. $30 to get a worse view than on tv. The recession may not be as big a factor as it was last year, but you buy a ticket a drink and a dog and you have spent almost $60! So cheap date it is not. The NBA is going corporate. The Finals are full of rich guys who could care less until the team is actually on the verge of winning. The real fans are stuck to watching it with friends at home…
Jeff
January 25th, 2010
6:38 pm
Mark if we want to compare the interest of the fan bases, we should consider both the Philips attendance and the TV/radio audience. How does Atlanta compare to other markets via these media outlets?
Edgar
January 25th, 2010
7:08 pm
I go to Hawks games and I for one love it when they play teams like the Kings and the Nyets…
$50 floor seats on stubhub!
hawkfan
January 25th, 2010
7:09 pm
Yes, regular season tix are very expensive in my opinion. Hard to justify paying almost $100/person (including transportation and food) for good seats unless it’s against an elite team or a playoff game.
In the 08-09 season I attended a Pacers game and a Knicks game. They are more fun to watch in person b/c you get a better feel for the game, but usually it’s difficult to justify spending so much money if you can watch the game in a good HDTV at home.
As far as Dominique, I loved him as a player but I cringe whenever I hear him talk during a broadcast. He stutters, uses awful grammar, and usually just states the obvious or rehashes Rathburn’s comments. Despite his obvious limitations as a play-by-play analyst, think the Spirit Group thought he could draw ratings and that the fan base would forgive him simply for being ‘Nique, the home-town hero.
As far as the team, the potential for a championship is really there, but I think the Hawks are still 1 or 2 years away from a ring. IMO they need another impact player ala JCrawford, but probably somebody in the frontcourt to play with Smoove and Horford.
Dennis G. Berdanis
January 25th, 2010
7:18 pm
Move out to Cobb or Gwinnett and the Hawks would fill an arena even in medicre seasons. That’s where the basketball fans who have money and will buy tickets live.
nolan
January 25th, 2010
7:28 pm
there is at least one guaranteed josh smith throw down dunk every game, and often it’s an alley-oop. that alone is worth ten bucks for a ticket!
Senator Blutarski
January 25th, 2010
8:18 pm
you didn’t hear it from me–the Hawks have been involved in a top-secret science project for several years involving clones. Yup–the low profile clones of Bill Walton, Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Karl Malone and Charles Barkley are almost of age and the Hawks have exclusive contract rights! (The young teenage clones have been honing their skills at a secret facility in Area 51)
northcyde
January 25th, 2010
8:35 pm
ATL fans in general, are just sorry sports fans. I feel sorry for you guys who actually do support ATL sports teams, because the fairweather nature in that city give the entire town a bad name. 65% of the fans in the arena may be Hawks fans. The other 35% are either fans of another team, or simply at the game because it’s the “in thing” to do. Going to a Hawks playoff game is the “in thing to do”.
Going to see the Hawks play the Pacers isn’t, because 35% of the crowd isn’t Hawks fans. That’s why you’ll see the arena only 1/2 full during those types of games.
I drive 4.5 hours to Atlanta about 5 – 10 times a year . . . just to see the Hawks . . . no matter who they play. My next trip will probably be for the Milwaukee game at the end of February. That’s on a Sunday evening. I’m sure there will be only about 11,000 in the house for that game.
It’s just sad that this city can’t get behind this team like it should.
The newspaper ( yes you AJC ) can do a better job as well in hyping up the Hawks.
And no, if the Hawks played in Cobb or Gwinett, it wouldn’t matter. They still wouldn’t show up to the games. And the traffic issue is BS, because you’re going into ATL for a game, where the traffic is less ( until you get around the arena ).
junebaby
January 25th, 2010
9:09 pm
Dennis G. Berdanis@7:18pm…., so what are u saying? the players are fine because they entertain you and your friends, but you guys want no interaction with anyone who don’t look or act like republicans(code word)? imo, u should just stay in the burbs, because we don’t miss that kind of attitude in the city. u would be better off admitting that you, a grown man is fearful of his own shadow. it would perhaps, make things easier for you if you admitted your fear factor. then u could seek help, either in counseling or self defense classes. or u could hire a bodyguard. i’ve heard, there are people in the burbs who will do anything for a few hits of meth.
Najeh Davenpoop
January 25th, 2010
11:12 pm
I think when football season is over attendance will pick up somewhat. We all know football is king in the south. Tickets to basketball games are actually pretty affordable compared to a lot of other things to do in ATL (if you have a student ID lying around they are even cheaper), so ticket prices shouldn’t be too much of a turn off.
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11:19 pm
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Najeh Davenpoop
January 25th, 2010
11:19 pm
I always laugh at people who say Hawks games cost them $100 or something ridiculous. An upper-level ticket is $30. If you have a student ID lying around, it’s $15. If the upper level isn’t good enough for you, a scalper will be glad to sell you a 200-level seat for $40 if you show up halfway through the first quarter. Nobody is forcing you to buy overpriced arena food. If you are that much of a fat azz that you can’t wait until the game is over to eat, it’s not like they pat you down or anything — just buy a Taco Bell burrito or Great Wrap in the CNN Center and sneak it in your pocket. That won’t cost you more than $3. Don’t feel like paying $10 for parking? Take MARTA, the station is right next to the arena, and yes it is perfectly safe, I ride it all the time.
Seriously, if you are smart, a Hawks game shouldn’t cost you more than $35. I’m lucky enough to have a student ID card, so usually I spend no more than $18 on a game.
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