Top 25 for 2010: Tech fans won’t like this; UGA fans might
The Crimson Tide will be high again in 2010, but dynastic? (AJC photo by Jason Getz)
Some folks crank out a preseason Top 25 during the fourth quarter of the BCS title game. I didn’t, for two reasons: First, I was still too astonished by Mack Brown’s shovel-pass-before-the-half to have a coherent thought; second, I wanted to wait and see which juniors were leaving. The shovel pass rankles still, but we now have clarity regarding the NFL early entrants. And here we go:
1. Alabama: Sports Illustrated just proclaimed the Tide a dynasty, which is cart-before-the-horse stuff. Wasn’t it this time a year ago that we were saying Florida was unbeatable?
2. Iowa: Football, as with all things in life, is cyclical. And we saw in the bowl season that teams from the slow and boring Big Ten looked neither slow nor boring.
3. Oregon: Football is cyclical. (Am I repeating myself?) There’s room at the top of the Pac-10, and coming off one Rose Bowl the fleet Ducks — is that an oxymoron? — are poised to go back.
4. Ohio State: Here we have a second Big Ten team before we come to our second SEC representative. I’m not trying to be a heretic. I just think Terrelle Pryor is really good.
5. Boise State: The Broncos leave their blue turf to play Virginia Tech in Washington, D.C., next season. I’m sorry, but I don’t see them winning that game.
6. Florida: Lost Tim Tebow. Lost three big-time defenders. Might lose the head coach. Probably won’t lose more than one regular-season game, though. Cupboard’s not entirely bare.
7. Texas: I keep hearing that Garrett Gilbert showed signs in the BCS title game of being a top-flight quarterback. I thought he showed signs of being not nearly as good as Colt McCoy.
8. Virginia Tech: If you’re looking for the nation’s most consistently overrated team, look first to Blacksburg. But I see the Hokies winning the ACC in 2010, which I guess makes me complicit.
9. Nebraska: Scan these ratings and you won’t find LSU. How long before the Tigers make a hard run at Bo Pelini, who has done nice work in Lincoln, to replace Les Miles? Not long, I think.
10. TCU: Interesting, is it not? With all the coach-swapping we’ve just seen, two guys still in place are the two who coached the Fiesta Bowl — TCU’s Gary Patterson and Boise’s Chris Petersen.
11. Wisconsin: Earlier I noted that the Big Ten isn’t all that ponderous anymore. It is, however, still powerful. Check out this offensive line if you’re a fan of road-grading.
12. North Carolina: It hasn’t yet happened for Butch Davis in Chapel Hill, but it’s getting closer. Last season he had the D. Next season he upgrades the O and finishes ahead of the reigning ACC titlist.
Iowa will be better in 2010. Tech will not. (AJC photo by Johnny Crawford)
13. Arkansas: Want a heartwarming story? Bobby Petrino upsets Alabama on Sept. 25, striking a blow for good guys everywhere. Yes, I’m kidding. About the story and the upset.
14. Pittsburgh: Dave Wannstedt wasn’t much of an NFL head coach, but he has built Pitt into something special. With Brian Kelly no longer at Cincinnati, here’s your Big East beast.
15. Georgia Tech: No, I’m not bailing out on Paul Johnson and his stylized offense. I just don’t think you can lose four of your five best players a year early and expect to be as good.
16. Penn State: Another Big Ten team! This one coached by a guy who fought in the Civil War! (I exaggerate, slightly.) Is the globe spinning backward on its axis? Is global warming real?
17. Oklahoma: We went almost a decade without being able to compile a preseason ranking that didn’t feature Big Game Bob Stoops in the top five. Time’s up on BGBS, I’m afraid.
18. Florida State: Two ways this can go in Year 1 after Saint Bobby — either the ‘Noles fall apart or they reclaim some sense of discipline. I’m taking Door No. 2.
19. South Carolina: This marks the 97th consecutive offseason Gamecock fans are getting geeked up for their big breakthrough. The 97th time just might be the charm, though.
20. Utah: The second-best team in the Mountain West (behind TCU) just might have the best coach (Kyle Whittingham). Tennessee just tried to hire him. He didn’t bite.
21. Georgia: Ten offensive starters return, but the exception is the quarterback. The defense gains Todd Grantham but loses six starters. You might say it’s a good-news-bad-news thing.
22. Navy: I’m not suggesting that losing Paul Johnson was a boost, but it didn’t exactly derail the Middies. They’re 18-9 in two post-PJ seasons. And they still run the ball.
23. Miami: Yes, there are four teams from the ACC Coastal on this list, another reason I don’t see Georgia Tech repeating. Although Tech should beat Miami this time.
24. Oregon State: The second-best team in the Pac-10 should be the Beavers, though it could be Stanford or Cal. It won’t be Southern Cal, though. You know why.
25. Houston: The Cougars have this quarterback. He has passed for 10,691 yards the past two seasons. His name is not Andre Ware. His name is Case Keenum. Pretty good name.
The Georgia defense in 2010: Not as many players but better-coached? (AP photo)
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539 comments Add your comment
gdawginkalamazoo
January 21st, 2010
11:24 am
It doesn’t matter to me where they put us. The offense will be trying a new QB so don’t expect a whole lot there. Rookie QB’s don’t fair all that well. We have a ton of talent on defense with a coach this time. I would say 9 win season plus a bowl victory would be considered a very good season. If the running game takes off like it did at the end of last season then the new QB might have to just manage the games and not lose them rather trying to do everything and make many mistakes.
Mark Bradley
January 21st, 2010
11:24 am
What would make UGA better in 2010? Not having Willie Martinez would seem a beginning.
Tweets that mention Top 25 for 2010: Tech fans won't like this; UGA fans might | Mark Bradley -- Topsy.com
January 21st, 2010
11:24 am
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Mark Bradley, Jeff Manning. Jeff Manning said: @jayphilips1074 and @1075thegame – AJC via Mark Bradley (@MarkBradleyAJC) has the Gamecocks in the top 25. http://bit.ly/4Y4EOQ [...]
Hank Reardon
January 21st, 2010
11:25 am
Iowa is getting too much respect for beating GT. They had a month to prepare for a high school offense. Hell, they didn’t even win the little ten.
Johnny Weissmuller
January 21st, 2010
11:25 am
Dawg stuck in Bham
Where are those 10 wins coming from?
You will likely lose to UF,
you have AU @ AU which certainly isn’t a definite W
@ USCe – they return their QB and many players on D
CPJ and GT is not a definite W either
I would say you are looking realistically at 8 or 9 wins with you probably losing to Florida, South Carolina, Auburn, and GTorUK
SuperB
January 21st, 2010
11:26 am
Iowa #2, UNC 12th– I love Mark Bradley! (Even though he doesn’t know a damn thing about football.) Go Mark!!!
Grantham's Stout
January 21st, 2010
11:27 am
Grantham has a history of coming into difficult situations, with limited resources, after a terrible year, and having an immediate impact.
Took Colts from 3-13 to 13-3, NFL record for 1 season turnaround.
Took Browns from 4-10 to 10-6 in one year, went 2-14 after Grantham left.
Mikey in the SAV
January 21st, 2010
11:27 am
Exactly what has South Carolina shown you to rank them in the top 25 Mr. Holtz?
SuperB
January 21st, 2010
11:28 am
One addendum: Mark Bradley is the Brent Musberger of print media! Brent is still lost in a Big Ten vacuum somewhere. Ditto for Bradley. Hey Mark: Aaron Murray– ever heard of him?
Mark "Mr Turnaround" Richt
January 21st, 2010
11:29 am
Mark Richt took a team that hadn’t been to the SEC CHamp in 20 years and got them there in 2 season.
Every year Mark Richt has had a bad season, 8 wins, he has turned the team around with one of his BEST years the next season.
2001- 8 win season
2002- 13-1, won the SEC, finished #2
2006- 8 win season
2007- 11-2, finished #3
2009- 8 win season
2010- 11-2, or 13-1 season?
@wbarker
January 21st, 2010
11:29 am
Mark, in an earlier blog you wrote that a good scheme (like CPJ’s offense) allowed a less talented team go further. Case in point, he took Gailey’s players further than Gailey probably would have. Do you not think that Groh’s good defensive system will do the same for the Tech defense? Yes GT is losing the top two defenders, but they played in an obviously poor system. Do you not think that the systems here again will win out over the loss of playmakers?
Elmore Spencer
January 21st, 2010
11:30 am
Paul Johnson has a “plug-and-play” offfense. If you follow Paul Johnson’s career, you’ll notice that no matter who he has to replace/plugs in on offense, it’s always productive. Thus the beauty of his spread option.
If that’s the case It shouldn’t matter whether Nesbitt is the QB or the backup. WRONG
Tech takes a big step back talent wise this year and its going to show in spades.
Russ, the Temporary Mascot
January 21st, 2010
11:32 am
I will let you know that I am in therapy. I also am losing some fur.
Elmore Spencer
January 21st, 2010
11:32 am
Do you not think that the systems here again will win out over the loss of playmakers?
No. No I do not.
All I'm Saying Is...
January 21st, 2010
11:32 am
Bradley: How much longer are we going to bash someone no longer affiliated with the UGA program? Don’t get me wrong: I don’t care about the former UGA defensive coordinator but, seriously, why not see if you can, say, get a conversation with the new guy? That would be a way more interesting line of thought at this stage don’t you agree?
As for your list, seems as good as any although I think you are too optimistic for Iowa and Florida State. Personally, I wish these pre-season rankings had no impact on the BCS because they artificially elevate mediocre teams (i.e. Ole Miss this past season) and often unfairly make it difficult for other deserving teams to rise high enough in the rankings to make it to a BCS bowl (i.e. too many examples to cite).
dan
January 21st, 2010
11:33 am
1. Bama’s got to get a better QB if they wish to stay on top. McElroy is streaky and was horrendous during the championship game.
3. Can’t gauge Oregon. They played well at the end of the season, but looked horrible vs. Ohio State.
6. Florida could go 8-4 next year. Way too many questions marks about this team to have them ranked in the top 10. Plus their schedule is tougher this year.
12. North Carolina is like Miami, they seem like they’re about to have a break out year, then finish with 3 or 4 losses. I’m not drinking the “potential” koolaid anymore. It’s time to produce.
18. Noles are in total rebuild mode and will be for the next few years. That team needs a whole new culture. FSU doesn’t belong in the top 10.
21.WAY too many questions about the UGA program for them to be ranked this high. Yes they got a new DC, but they still kept Bobo around which sucks. The Dawgs schedule is favorable, but if QB play continues to be a problem and if this team finishes below 8-4, we’ll know that Richt is the problem.
UGA, 6 top 10 seasons in 9 years
January 21st, 2010
11:33 am
I wouldn’t bet against Georgia for 2010 with 10 of 11 offensive starters coming back, and the DC Nick Saban tried to hire on staff.
67% chance Georgia will finish in the top 10, if you study Richt’s history.
Mark Richt has NEVER had 2 back to back bad seasons at Georgia.
Johnny Weissmuller
January 21st, 2010
11:33 am
Mark “Mr Turnaround” Richt
13-1 = UGA beating Bama next year and that is just delusional
Elmore Spencer
January 21st, 2010
11:33 am
Case in point, he took Gailey’s players further than Gailey probably would have.
Maybe but the problem is Gailey recruited better players than CPJ will be able to get in that system. We will see if he can win without Gaileys athletes.
dan
January 21st, 2010
11:34 am
Sorry, I meant to say the Noles don’t belong in the top 25.
TommyP
January 21st, 2010
11:35 am
So early but these predictions are based on what you saw last with really zero projections involved.
Iowa was one of the last teams you saw and they looked pretty good. Same with Bama and Florida. Gators #6?????????? Are you kidding me???? If the Gators are preseason #6 then you’re saying Tebow didn’t make THAT big of a difference. That’s ridiculous. They lost their OFFENSE. You don’t lose one of the best college players of all time and stay at the same level. Florida is in for a step down.
You’re wrong about Gilbert as well. So you’re taking face value of the National Championship game where a true freshman was thrust into action at the start of the game against the best defense in the country and he leads them to within 3 points in the 4th quarter…..and you don’t see how that kid is going to be very good? Wow.
Arkansas: nice offense, brutal defense. They’ll score a ton…and give up 2 tons.
Pitt: Wasn’t he on the precipice of being fired several times? It’s taken him quite awhile to build a really good team. Question is when is the last time Pitt won a huge game? Better than they used to be but definitely overrated.
Oklahoma….1 bad year (for them) does not mean they’re going backwards. They rebound big.
FSU: They take over Florida next year. They have been ready to breakout and next year will be the year now that they’ve lost most of that archaic staff. They win the ACC next year.
Georgia: Please. Way too low. Aaron Murray steps up and leads a good offense while we FINALLY have a defensive coordinator. Again, if the defense is to remain a question mark, then you’re saying that losing Willie and gaining Grantham is a wash. You gotta be kidding me? The talent is there…..actually, it’s always been there. New ideas, better coaching, no scouting report to go on with our defense. MUCH easier schedule.
USC: Again, the talent is there and they should be back. Barkley will break out big time next year. Top 10 even with the jerk.
Mark "Mr Turnaround" Richt
January 21st, 2010
11:36 am
13-1 delusional?
Auburn almost beat Alabama, and Georgia beat Auburn, with the DC Saban tried to hire as Georgia’s DC, and 10 of 11 starters back on offense, Bama goes down in 2010.
F-105 Thunderchief
January 21st, 2010
11:37 am
Tech will win eight or nine next year, but it will be a transition year. Could have, should have exceeded this season without the defections.
SLP
January 21st, 2010
11:37 am
A lot of good teams in college football for 2010. It’ll be a great year to watch. SI rankings are always a joke. I like yours although I disagree here and there. Arkansas too high for one. Boise a little too high. Bees too high. Dawgs about right. NC is a little optimistic. FSU, I’ll take door number 1 in ‘10. How do you feel about Ole Miss and Missy St.?
Johnny Weissmuller
January 21st, 2010
11:37 am
Mark “Mr Turnaround” Richt
If you think UGA starting a new QB and having shown no signs of improvement on defense (grantham hasn’t proven anything yet) so how means that you will beat the 14-0 national champions who beat florida (something you have only done 3 times in 20 years) and texas, then you are delusional my friend
IOWA #2? HILARIOUS!!!
January 21st, 2010
11:37 am
Enter your comments here
Elmore Spencer
January 21st, 2010
11:38 am
13-1 delusional?
Auburn almost beat Alabama, and Georgia beat Auburn, with the DC Saban tried to hire as Georgia’s DC, and 10 of 11 starters back on offense, Bama goes down in 2010.
Bama got hot at the right time. They are losing some OL and that is going to hurt. Each year is a different year and a different team.
Gratefuldawghead
January 21st, 2010
11:38 am
Dawgs will challenge Florida for the East and good chance to play Bama for the SEC!
SimpleDawg
January 21st, 2010
11:39 am
5 ACC teams in the Top 25? Not likely to be that way half way through the season. GIT will not come close to the level of success they enjoyed this past year. UNC has a way of doing less with more than most teams. Miami seems destined to be a Jekyll & Hyde team. Va. Tech just does what they do, and grind out victories the old fashioned way.
5 SEC teams and no LSU? Again, not likely to be that way half way through the season….LSU replaces Arkinsaw and Auburn replaces South Carolina. Ole Miss is due for a down year, but losing Jevan Snead may be addition by subtraction. As for UGA, who knows, could be really good or just average.
Big Ten plus One had an impressive bowl showing, and your 4 teams seem to be solid picks.
The Pac-10 will be up for grabs with Cardinals and Ducks soaring over Beavers and Bears.
Boise State had it’s best team ever this past year…..let’s see if they can provide an encore season.
The Big Least boasting Pitt as their “bell cow” shows their lack of depth. Cincy will be just another average team, as will West Virginia, UConn, and Rutgers…..the rest will be struggling for a .500 season.
The Big 12 doesn’t look so big anymore…..
Lowcountry Bulldawg
January 21st, 2010
11:40 am
Talent and Coaching, big thing what is dependant on what UGA does in 2010. Having to replace a QB is not that big of a deal if you return 10 starters, and he has talent. Joe Cox was just in over his head. Look at Bradford, he had no game time exp. in ‘06 but came on like a freght train in ‘07. Not saying either of our young men will be that good, but it does happen.
Defensively over the past few years UGA has built depth across the board. Now does depth mean talent? Who knows. This is where we find out. New system in place can UGA’s defense immediately respond to the 3-4 or will it take two years to get the players for it.
I could see due to the offensive talent at UGA them beginning the season ranked far below where they may finish.
papadawg
January 21st, 2010
11:40 am
To To early for this but I will say whatever QB the Dawgs have this year will upgrade the offense and the jury is still out on the defense.
Richt never had 2 Non Top 10 years in a Row
January 21st, 2010
11:40 am
Mark Richt is great at adjustments. He has never had 2 years in a row where he wasn’t a top 10 team. Never, in 9 seasons.
So, 2010, Georgia will finish in the top 10.
1eyedJack
January 21st, 2010
11:40 am
Quick Tip:
This article may be printed out and used as toilet paper.
FalconUGAFan
January 21st, 2010
11:42 am
I like the rankings. Both GT and UGA are coming in with some pretty big question marks. Any time you bring in new coaches, you change the team dynamic. What remains to be seen is will it be positive or negative? Clear in the case of UGA it should be positive, although they have a new scheme to learn.
Mark "Mr Turnaround" Richt
January 21st, 2010
11:44 am
True, Georgia will have a freshman QB in 2010, but freshamn QB’s have won the Natl Championship, so it won’t be the first time.
It’s been done, Richt knew Kosar. Kosar did it as a Freshmen QB at Miami. Oklahoma won one with Jamelle a few years back too.
Nothing new winning a Natl Champ with a freshman QB.
cattle dawg
January 21st, 2010
11:48 am
A couple of reasons dawgs will be better this year. No more Cox, Willie, and Fabris. Got some young guys stepping up on defense. UGA actually has 2 running backs this year. There is alot of talent and depth at wide reciever. Dawgs won 4 of last 5 I think. It should be a fun year.
MR
January 21st, 2010
11:49 am
Well we know where this is going…MB makes these stupid forecast and then apologizes in the fall. Keep thinking that Tech cannot reload. They will be better next year…MB, you have never been right and this will be not different.
brucemac
January 21st, 2010
11:49 am
Yea, Dawgs embarrassed themselves in 2008, finishing #10 in the country and winning their New Years Day Bowl Game. We are so embarrassed. Tech, 2009 best year since 1990 and lost their bowl game and finished #15. So that is better for the loser Tech program I guess. You beez are so stupid and jealous you let your disdain get in the way of facts.
MR
January 21st, 2010
11:49 am
@Mark “Mr Turnaround” Richt
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
Mark "Mr Turnaround" Richt
January 21st, 2010
11:49 am
The Natl Champ will come out of the SEC, like it has for the last 5 seasons.
Gonna be Bama or LSU in the West, Georgia or Florida in the East.
Bama doesn’t have the offensive genius on staff to beat Mark Richt, so all Georgia has to do is get past Florida, which 4 or 5 teams will beat Florida this year, Florida has lost at least 4 games 2 out of 5 seasons under Meyer. If Meyer doesn’t return, and Meyer has never stayed longer than 5 years at one place, then Florida will lose 6 games in 2010. Florida WILL LOSE EITHER 4-6 GAMES.
Dayman
January 21st, 2010
11:50 am
No, I’m not bailing out on Paul Johnson and his stylized offense. I just don’t think you can lose four of your five best players a year early and expect to be as good.
SO your saying all those players they lost were only worth two spots in the polls. They finished 13th last year.
Johnny Weissmuller
January 21st, 2010
11:51 am
Mark “Mr Turnaround” Richt
you certainly have a lot of confidence in a QB that clearly wasn’t heads and shoulders above Cox or else Richt would have played him this year (and don’t give me the whole ‘loyalty to cox’ thing)
the diffence between the Miami and OU teams that won a NC with a freshman QB and UGA is defense. Until Grantham proves that he can make your defense much better than it was this year, then you will have a tough time winning 8 games. Also, those OU and Miami teams weren’t nearly as heavily penalized and undisciplined as Richt’s boys were this year and last year
Johnny Weissmuller
January 21st, 2010
11:52 am
Teams undisciplined, heavy penalized teams with shaky defenses rarely if ever win National Titles
MR
January 21st, 2010
11:52 am
@Mark “Mr Turnaround” Richt
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA….please stop….my sides are hurting…HA HA HA HA HA HA
TruthSeeker
January 21st, 2010
11:52 am
Troll list. Florida 6th? They’re facing a much bigger rebuilding job than they did in 2007, when they went 9-4. That’s about where they’ll finish next year.
Also, South Carolina 19th? Based on what? Okay, they have a lot of returning starters, but if you watched them against UConn that doesn’t look to be a good thing.
Delusional
January 21st, 2010
11:52 am
MB – did you forget what the middle tier (UGA and Scar) SEC teams did to the ACC champs at the end of the year? And the ACC Champ (GT) didn’t look too good in their bowl game – which you credit to Iowa being the 2nd best Team in the country?? You give the ACC and Big Ten way too much credit. Also, ranking Ark but not AUB, Ole Miss or LSU is a mistake…its all about Defense and Ark has not shown an ability to play D against top teams. I agree UGA is still rebuiliding but GT falls out of the TOP 25 by seasons end..
Mark "Mr Turnaround" Richt
January 21st, 2010
11:54 am
I pity what Richt’s offensive mind will do to Kirby Smart. Smart will regret not taking Richt up for his lucky break, and he’ll NEVER get a win against Richt again. And don’t think Grantham will not be licking his chops flying at a team that can’t throw the football. Bama’s like Ga Tech, they really can’t throw the ball. And Georgia will expose Bama.
Benjamin
January 21st, 2010
11:55 am
I think, if I were picking, both schools would be in the 20-25 range.
jumbeauxtiger
January 21st, 2010
11:56 am
So Cal and LSU not ranked? They both will be next season.
Iowa won’t be the 2nd best team in the nation next year and I think Oklahoma will be better than 17th.
I think UGA will be the second best team in the SEC east and si I would rank them ahead of USCe.
I would rank the Gators about 11th. No flame intended but I think losing Tebow and the others is going to have an effect this fall.
Geaux Tigers
Go SEC
MR
January 21st, 2010
11:56 am
@Mark “Mr Turnaround” Richt
What time do they bring your meds? HA HA you are a riot. Maybe they will have a blackout when they play…what happened last time?