Attention! Some nut here thinks Texas will beat Alabama
It wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been wrong. Heck, it’d be the third time in three days. (Picked Georgia Tech to win Tuesday in both basketball and football.) But here goes:
I like the Longhorns tonight.
It’s nothing against the SEC. I’ve covered the conference for 30 years and I know full well it’s the best there is. But over those 30 years I’ve learned a little something else, and it’s this: Pay particular attention to an excellent team that’s being given no shot at winning.
Four years ago an undefeated Texas went to California to play for the BCS title and was dismissed out of hand. Because Southern Cal was shooting for a third consecutive national championship. Because the Trojans had not one but two Heisman holders on their roster. Because SC was regarded by us media types as the greatest team ever and therefore invincible.
But it’s a funny thing: Not many teams truly are invincible. Against the wrong opponent on the wrong day, anybody can be unhorsed. And the Trojans played like crazy, at least on offense, that night in Pasadena — I was there, and I well recall Reggie Bush flipping into the end zone and Dwayne Jarrett making like Mr. Fantastic to stretch the ball over the goal line for what seemed the clinching touchdown — and still got beat. Because Vince Young had the greatest single performance I’ve ever seen. Because Texas simply would not go away.
Alabama is a splendid team. Indeed, it’s trying to do something conference brethren Florida and LSU, each of which has won two BCS titles this millennium, couldn’t manage, and that’s finish unbeaten. (Auburn went through the SEC undefeated in 2004 but didn’t get to play for the BCS crown.) And I do believe the raging consensus about the SEC — that its best players tend to be faster than the best players from other leagues — is in fact a fact. But I’d argue that the Big 12 is the league that comes closest to approximating the SEC, and I would never discount an unbeaten Big 12 champ.
Having been around a while, I know how it works: We media types tend to work off the last thing we’ve seen. And on Dec. 5 we saw Alabama trample Florida while Texas nearly pulled a Les Miles and lost to Nebraska. And the Longhorns had a rough ride in College Station on Thanksgiving night against a Texas A&M team that Georgia just crushed without benefit of a defensive coordinator.
That said, no team wins every game by 50 points. At last check, Alabama needed a blocked field goal to survive Tennessee, which would finish 7-6, and the day after Texas struggled to subdue the Aggies the Tide had to rally to beat Auburn. But my point isn’t to derogate Alabama, which is a tough and talented and superbly coached; it’s to suggest those same descriptions apply to its just-as-undefeated opponent.
And we have to be careful when we try to graft one year onto the next. Different seasons bring differing dynamics. Just because Southern Cal had beaten the Big 12 champ (Oklahoma, which was undone when the nicely named Mark Bradley fumbled a punt he shouldn’t have touched) by 36 points in January 2005 didn’t mean the next Big 12 champ would succumb so readily. Just because the SEC has won the past three BCS titles doesn’t mean Alabama is a lock tonight.
Back to 2006: I asked Mack Brown at his day-before media briefing how it felt to have a team that good and be afforded so little chance. (Pretty darn good, he said.) And big-time coaches love these kinds of games. It isn’t often a program like Texas ever gets to be an decided underdog — the spread is only four points, but do you know many folks who are picking against the Tide? — and I’d especially be wary of an underdog that has the better quarterback.
Being my silly self, I picked Texas over Southern Cal back then. (No, it didn’t look good when the Trojans led by 12 points with four minutes left. But it worked out in the end.) Maybe I’m just trying to repeat my one moment of prognosticating perspicacity, but I like the same school to do the same thing in the same stadium.
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849 comments Add your comment
Seriously
January 7th, 2010
4:39 pm
BAMA only won 60% of their games in the 2000’s. Even if they win, I don’t want to hear this dynasty crap.
Seriously
January 7th, 2010
4:42 pm
Gobbler’s Waddle….can you say UTAH? Damn folks got short memories.
oldfart
January 7th, 2010
4:42 pm
Going against Satan Saban? Come on over to the dark side Mark. 75% of Alabama has.
ACC is Nation's Best Conference
January 7th, 2010
4:43 pm
Wasn’t all that long ago when Nick Saban the mighty Tide lost to Louisiana Monroe, that’s right! Louisiana Monroe!
Next year my beloved Jackets will be taking on a rebuilt Florida Gators squad and I’m booking my tickets tomorrow!
SEC
January 7th, 2010
4:44 pm
why do u think Texas defense has so many picks and so little rush yards against???? look at the teams they play. how many pass attempts did they face compared to rush attempts??? they have not faced a team like Alabama all year..and do not forget about Julio who knows he has to show up tonight and make some big time catches.
DP
January 7th, 2010
4:44 pm
Mark, I think you’ve made a good argument in support of your pick, but I, an admittedly biased Alabama guy, think Alabama will win tonight. Texas doesn’t run the ball well and nobody has run the ball well on Alabama. When you become one dimensional on offense against a defense like Alabama’s with a coach like Saban you’re usually going to be in trouble. Texas struggled on offense against the 2 really good defenses they played, Oklahoma and Nebraska. I think McCoy will have trouble getting enough time to throw downfield and driving it down the field with short passes will be tough against tight man to man coverage. I think Alabama will have McClain or another linebacker spying McCoy to limit his runs out of the pocket.
If Texas can’t control the ball on offense, Alabama’s offense could wear down the Texas defense. Texas has a great defense, #1 in the country against the run, but they’re a speed defense that plays side to side against mostly spread offenses. They haven’t played anybody with a physical running game comparable to Alabama’s so it will be interesting to see if they can shut down the running game between the tackles. When Alabama starts making some plays both running and passing their offense becomes very hard to stop, as shown against Florida.
I think for Texas to win they will need to win the turnover margin (Alabama only had 10 turnovers all year) and maybe return a kick for a touchdown. Alabama’s kickoff return coverage has been a weak spot.
I’ll predict Alabama 27 Texas 13, but I have a lot of respect for Texas and it won’t shock me if they win. You never know what teams you’ll see after a 5 week layoff.
Peachy Longhorn
January 7th, 2010
4:47 pm
SEC, congratulations on proving my theory. You win a trip to…. another re-enactment! Don’t forget those smelly, wool socks and hard tack. Wooohooey, that’s sum weekend fun!!
Volunteer Nation
January 7th, 2010
4:48 pm
MB, anyone in the SEC can tell you Alabama is the cheatinest bunch in the entire conference. Do you honeslty think Ingram will graduate? These quarterbacks they keep rolling out seem more like junior country club tennis champions than leaders on the gridiron. Brodie Croyle? John Parker Wilson? Greg Macelroy? Seriously? I could see them all wearing white Izod Sweaters in a Birmingham Country Club!
Lane Kiffin is bringing home yet another top 5 recruiting class, using his helicopter to fly into Georgia and Alabama and steal recruits right under Richt and Saban’s eyes! The mighty giant has awoken and mark my words – next year we WILL be in Atlanta!
Eddie
January 7th, 2010
4:50 pm
Mark – “Covering . . . for 30 years”. Did’t think you were that old.
Should be a good game. Team with the best game plan and execution will win.
Eddie
January 7th, 2010
4:51 pm
Mark – You been here 30 years – seems like you just started.
Team with the best game plan and execution will win. Should be a good and close game.
Eddie
January 7th, 2010
4:52 pm
Sorry for the double, now triple comment. Thought the first had been eaten up be the blog monster.
Gratefuldawghead
January 7th, 2010
4:52 pm
Volunteer Nation saw you in Atlanta last year getting Beat by VT!
gadawgs
January 7th, 2010
4:53 pm
Alabama’s defense is just too tough and they have an outstanding running game as well (that combination wins ballgames). Also, Texas has not played anyone this year with that type of “D”. Hence, another National Championship for the SEC.
SEC
January 7th, 2010
4:54 pm
Colt McCoy had 3 more touchdown passes than Joe Cox and McCoy threw the ball 140 more times than Cox……WOW!! AWESOME!!
Harry the Hat
January 7th, 2010
4:54 pm
Alabama by 10 points. I think.
Bill C
January 7th, 2010
4:54 pm
The only people who are taking it for granted that the “underdog” Longhorns will get beat is mostly sportswriters like yourself, who have to compare this game (wrongly) to the USC/Texas game (seems to me that the Trojans of that year were being touted as one of the best teams of all time-just a “slight” difference in your analogy)..My Tide is a great football team, but make no mistake: Coach Saban has this team grounded and focused past the hoopla and the “David vs Goliath” crap that the sportscasters have been spewing. Remember, the process isn’t complete until we beat Texas. Until then, this is another step. ROLL TIDE!!!
MtCody
January 7th, 2010
4:56 pm
Look out Colt McCoy, I’m gonna chomp on you for a late night snack!
Matthew McConaughey
January 7th, 2010
4:56 pm
Thanks a lot Bradley, you $%##%@%!!!!! You’ve officially cursed my Longhorns.
Eddie
January 7th, 2010
4:56 pm
.Bill C – Your Tide? I wondered who owned those guys.
Harry the Hat
January 7th, 2010
4:56 pm
Hey, I like “ACC is Nation’s Best Conference.” He’s spot on with his analysis.
Eddie
January 7th, 2010
4:57 pm
Now we know who owns the Longhorns.
Very educational blog.
Roll Tide, by the way.
30-24 Dawgs - WE RUN THIS STATE!
January 7th, 2010
4:58 pm
“ACC is Nation’s Best Conference” – The ACC is the best conference in WHAT? Cause it certainly isn’t football, basketball or baseball. Perhaps men’s lacrosse or women’s soccer.
Dolly Parton
January 7th, 2010
5:00 pm
Volunteer Nation, easy on the moonshine my hillbilly friend- you’re going to pass out in your own vomit before the game starts. You usually wait until after the game for that.
DrDawg
January 7th, 2010
5:00 pm
Hey Mark.
Can I have your job? Here is the deal. We both submit articles to the AJC on the same days for two months. The AJC publishes both and we let the readers decide. Let the better sports writer win. Fair enough? Since accuracy or logic are not required, I’ve got a chance at a whole new career!
Hume
January 7th, 2010
5:01 pm
The author makes a lot of good points but I would draw attention to something which is overlooked in the USC analogy. USC had a great offense it was their defense which didn’t play well and wasn’t on par with the offense. Alabama has a great defense and the cliche that defenses win championships has some truth. For that reason, barring flukes and unpredictable factors I will go with Alabama by a touchdown.
JDM
January 7th, 2010
5:01 pm
Wow, a whole article without kisses to the arrogant pj
SEC
January 7th, 2010
5:03 pm
Why would you pick GA tech to win at UGA in basketball??? when was the last time they wont there? like 86 or something like that? is Marks job up for grabs?
Eddie
January 7th, 2010
5:03 pm
DrDawg – I think the test of a sportswriter nowa days is how many people respond on his blog. You just hepled Mark’s career.
No logic or accuracy – just entertainment and controversy.
haywood...
January 7th, 2010
5:05 pm
hey mark,
who was first? where’s the love? im gonna boycott your
blog and then you won’t reach your 3 million comments goal
in 2010.
Volunteer Nation
January 7th, 2010
5:06 pm
You Bama and Leghumper fans on here need to go ahead and admit that Bryce Brown is a MUCH bigger stud than the first-half bomb Julio Jones or the oft-injured AJ Green. Brown will be rewriting the SEC record books before his career is over in Knoxville, and that includes an impressive group of receivers such as Washington, Meachem, Stallworth, and Cedrick Wilson.
The Kiffins have the Vols back in the right direction after the Fulmer Flop years!
Bryant
January 7th, 2010
5:07 pm
Volunteer Nation needs to let the crack pipe cool off. Great Day!!!!!
DaveDawg
January 7th, 2010
5:08 pm
Completely agree.
Algonquin J. Calhoun
January 7th, 2010
5:08 pm
Mark, thanks for letting me know which way you’re going tonight. Knowing your history, I’m bettin’ the house on Alabama.
PHIL
January 7th, 2010
5:09 pm
The difference in this game and that Texas vs, USC game is that it wasn’t Texas that wouldn’t go away as you put it, it was Vince Young that wouldn’t go away. And Mr. Bradley, I assure you that as nice of a young man as McCoy seems to be, he is no Vince Young as far as a college QB is concerned. Talk about the stats and all that kinda stuff all you want, but VY was a much better college QB than Tim Tebow, and I like Tim as much as any UGA grad could ever. VY won that game by himself. It wasn’t “Texas.”
The other difference is that USC didn’t have an overly strong defense. AL has the best defense in the nation and they have it playing in the SEC. D wins big games even when the O is ugly. And sometimes the O at AL is ugly. Mark Ingram isn’t even the best player on the AL team. I think maybe the 5th or 6th or maybe lower even.
Bryant
January 7th, 2010
5:09 pm
And the Vowels got beat by UCLA. What’s your point, crack addict?
SEC
January 7th, 2010
5:12 pm
I’m just glad UGA won their bowl game and beat the crap out of Texas A&M…SEC!!!
Without-a-clue
January 7th, 2010
5:12 pm
Let’s see. Bradley likes the Horns. Time to call the ‘book” and get a load down on the Tide. Excuse me.
Volunteer Nation
January 7th, 2010
5:13 pm
DaveDawg, surely you remember what Johnny Crompton did to your Dawgs in October? 20 for 27 – a career-high 310 yards in the Volunteers’ 45-19 victory.
The Vols were one blocked kick away from beating Bama and restoring order in the SEC. Next year will be ours, the Tide won’t have Mount Cody to get so lucky then.
DrDawg
January 7th, 2010
5:13 pm
EDDIE:
You are right. I could write an article in about 15 minutes and then collect my paycheck.
Then once a week I would have to write something to really piss off my readers to get a reaction.
That seems to be the formula for success. I would love the three hour lunches. Do these guys even have to come in to work? Just stay home, write on the computer, send it in, and stay in your jammies all day. Really, why does a writer at a paper have to show up to work?
De' truth
January 7th, 2010
5:17 pm
What is Lane Kiffin’s biggest worry? Answer: Will the NCAA consider bail money to be a recruiting violation.
Furman Bisher
January 7th, 2010
5:17 pm
“Why does a writer at a paper have to show up to work?”
We used to have to back in the old days of my IBM typewriter and the glory days of Boobby Dodd and Georgia Tech in the ACC. Gene Sarazen and Bobby Jones would fill the pages of my work for hours until it was time to head down to the Flats to see my beloved Jackets play.
Now they’ve dropped every home game in the 90’s to those mutts from Athens, including 30-24!
T-MAN
January 7th, 2010
5:19 pm
Mark,I think ya hit the nail on the head,if any games ripe for an upset this is it.Texas by 5
PHIL
January 7th, 2010
5:19 pm
Volunteer Nation Who is Bryce Brown? Really. I’m seriously asking. Never heard of him. Doubt I ever will if UT doesn’t ever get a QB.
Speaking of QB’s, who saw the Fiesta Bowl? Neither Boise or TCU have still played a team above mid ACC level. Those QB’s were supposed to be sooooo good. They made Joe Cox look like Joe Namath. Somehow in the rankings and BCS systems there has to be some gravity given to the actual talent level on teams. TCU had really good DE and linebacker and that’s about all the talent I saw on the whole field. Cincy, Boise and TCU shouldn’t have been in the top 25. Just because you haven’t lost games, it doesn’t mean you should be ranked highly.
Morgan Burnett
January 7th, 2010
5:21 pm
Has anyone seen Caleb King around these parts? I was still chasing him but somehow lost him in the snow flurries!
Johnny Test
January 7th, 2010
5:21 pm
j…. a Tech fan masquerading as a Bama fan. The number one tactic of maggot fans. I’d hide my identity too if I were a tech fan.
Hunkerdown
January 7th, 2010
5:22 pm
Last year Bama said that we were wearing black to our own funeral. Got to give you that one as it hurt and was true. Tonight, while we might get after each other throughout the season it is time to come together and pull for our neighbors and fellow SEC friends. Roll tide roll and get you some longhorn tonight! Let the beatings begin!!!!!!!!!!
Eddie
January 7th, 2010
5:22 pm
DrDawg – If all they did was write a column every day they could email it in. In their defense, there are other things they do to get out the sports edition every day in addition to writing their own column. Someone has to wirte all that other stuff and decide who writes what. Then they have to have coffee together for group moral support and company togetherness.
I better let Mark defend himself.
Volunteer Nation
January 7th, 2010
5:24 pm
Listen, I admit the mighty Vols have had some minor off-the-field issues. most of which Kiffin and Pearl have satisfactoratly dealt with internally. I’ve heard of numerous traffic and license violations going on in Athens and we all know the criminals in Tuscaloosa.
What I’m worried about is the product on the field, and you can see this season we passed Georgia bye and next season will surpass whoever-is-coaching the Gators and their fresh meat quarterback.
PHIL
January 7th, 2010
5:25 pm
Again, who is Bruce Brown? Seriously.
Russ
January 7th, 2010
5:26 pm
Furman Bisher – missed you when I read Jeff what’s his name pitiful articles on the Orange Bowl. You would have reminded us old guys of Bobby D. and the good days in the major bowls in the fifties, and even the Rose Bowl in the twenties and everything in between. Who are these young guys that don’t know anything.
Sorry they took away your typewriter. Hope you are doing well.