Attention! Some nut here thinks Texas will beat Alabama
It wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been wrong. Heck, it’d be the third time in three days. (Picked Georgia Tech to win Tuesday in both basketball and football.) But here goes:
I like the Longhorns tonight.
It’s nothing against the SEC. I’ve covered the conference for 30 years and I know full well it’s the best there is. But over those 30 years I’ve learned a little something else, and it’s this: Pay particular attention to an excellent team that’s being given no shot at winning.
Four years ago an undefeated Texas went to California to play for the BCS title and was dismissed out of hand. Because Southern Cal was shooting for a third consecutive national championship. Because the Trojans had not one but two Heisman holders on their roster. Because SC was regarded by us media types as the greatest team ever and therefore invincible.
But it’s a funny thing: Not many teams truly are invincible. Against the wrong opponent on the wrong day, anybody can be unhorsed. And the Trojans played like crazy, at least on offense, that night in Pasadena — I was there, and I well recall Reggie Bush flipping into the end zone and Dwayne Jarrett making like Mr. Fantastic to stretch the ball over the goal line for what seemed the clinching touchdown — and still got beat. Because Vince Young had the greatest single performance I’ve ever seen. Because Texas simply would not go away.
Alabama is a splendid team. Indeed, it’s trying to do something conference brethren Florida and LSU, each of which has won two BCS titles this millennium, couldn’t manage, and that’s finish unbeaten. (Auburn went through the SEC undefeated in 2004 but didn’t get to play for the BCS crown.) And I do believe the raging consensus about the SEC — that its best players tend to be faster than the best players from other leagues — is in fact a fact. But I’d argue that the Big 12 is the league that comes closest to approximating the SEC, and I would never discount an unbeaten Big 12 champ.
Having been around a while, I know how it works: We media types tend to work off the last thing we’ve seen. And on Dec. 5 we saw Alabama trample Florida while Texas nearly pulled a Les Miles and lost to Nebraska. And the Longhorns had a rough ride in College Station on Thanksgiving night against a Texas A&M team that Georgia just crushed without benefit of a defensive coordinator.
That said, no team wins every game by 50 points. At last check, Alabama needed a blocked field goal to survive Tennessee, which would finish 7-6, and the day after Texas struggled to subdue the Aggies the Tide had to rally to beat Auburn. But my point isn’t to derogate Alabama, which is a tough and talented and superbly coached; it’s to suggest those same descriptions apply to its just-as-undefeated opponent.
And we have to be careful when we try to graft one year onto the next. Different seasons bring differing dynamics. Just because Southern Cal had beaten the Big 12 champ (Oklahoma, which was undone when the nicely named Mark Bradley fumbled a punt he shouldn’t have touched) by 36 points in January 2005 didn’t mean the next Big 12 champ would succumb so readily. Just because the SEC has won the past three BCS titles doesn’t mean Alabama is a lock tonight.
Back to 2006: I asked Mack Brown at his day-before media briefing how it felt to have a team that good and be afforded so little chance. (Pretty darn good, he said.) And big-time coaches love these kinds of games. It isn’t often a program like Texas ever gets to be an decided underdog — the spread is only four points, but do you know many folks who are picking against the Tide? — and I’d especially be wary of an underdog that has the better quarterback.
Being my silly self, I picked Texas over Southern Cal back then. (No, it didn’t look good when the Trojans led by 12 points with four minutes left. But it worked out in the end.) Maybe I’m just trying to repeat my one moment of prognosticating perspicacity, but I like the same school to do the same thing in the same stadium.
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849 comments Add your comment
Reggie Ball
January 7th, 2010
3:04 pm
I got worms.
jc_atl
January 7th, 2010
3:05 pm
As an Auburn fan I am torn. I love the SEC and have pulled for every SEC team to win their bowl game, even the Gaytors. But when it comes to listening to the mullets proclaim another MNC, I start to hit my limits. So, I just hope it’s a game that’s so good it goes into overtime. If Bama wins I’ll be happy for them and the SEC, and if they lose, well, I’ll probably enjoy that in a schaudenfreudian sort of way. It’s hard to pick this game. Both teams have looked vulnerable in games this season, but I think Bama probably has the edge in impressive wins. McCoy has the experience, but Bama has a fantastic defense and will probably harass him all night long.
Jamie Gillis
January 7th, 2010
3:05 pm
Mark –
I’d advise against using the word “perispicacity” around Alabama and Texas fans – they might think you’re discussing your deodorant rather than your Kreskin-like predictive abilities.
Buzz Belle
January 7th, 2010
3:05 pm
I picked Texas in September. HOOK ‘EM HORNS! & THWG.
fieldofdreams
January 7th, 2010
3:06 pm
The way the SEC manipulated the season, in order to get UF v. Bama in their championship game, was shameless. May God Almighty teach them a lesson for playing god with the outcomes of the games. Hook ‘em Horns!
j
January 7th, 2010
3:06 pm
Johnny Test,
I wouldn’t be talking with a losses to Kentuck and OSU. I will spare you with the stats from the TENNESSEE game and just tell you that LANE KIFFIN RUNS THIS STATE! UGAY is UGAY. Alabama all the way.
ATLNative
January 7th, 2010
3:07 pm
Men in trenches win tough games; Bama takes it in a close one! Let’s hope the TV signal keeps working tonight. Go SEC
State of Alabama
January 7th, 2010
3:09 pm
Where it’s ALL relative(s) !!
Bon Bon
January 7th, 2010
3:10 pm
The spoils go to the young men who try their very hardest. Well, and of course, those who hit the other guy so hard that he is as tipsy as Mariah Carey.
No Way
January 7th, 2010
3:10 pm
If I recall in that upset, ‘whats his face’ was down when he threw that forward lateral. USC should have won that game. Just like Miami against Ohio State a few years ago. Refs Screwed them. The Refs put Texas into this game. Big 12 replay guys didn’t want to cost the school the big game. Nebraska won. Tenth of seconds should not be reviewed. Could you imagine what the Cincy vs. Bama game would have looked like considering what florida did to them. Hopefully, Bama will not give the Refs a chance to sway it by winning big.
CJ Dawg
January 7th, 2010
3:12 pm
Mark, you just made it official. I am betting my house on Bama. I still don’t know how you keep ur job. You are the worst, most ignorant writer in the world. Bama wins by 10…easily. DA MB strikes again!!!!!!
fieldofdreams
January 7th, 2010
3:12 pm
Are the Braves interested in Dan Uggla to play left field?
Mark "Crimson Crier" Ingram
January 7th, 2010
3:14 pm
HOOK’em HORNS!
willie M
January 7th, 2010
3:14 pm
if Smart leaves Bama, I’ve been contacted about being his replacement
CJ Dawg
January 7th, 2010
3:15 pm
Let’s petition the AJC to get rid of Bradley. He makes Terrence look like Grantland Rice.
GoVols
January 7th, 2010
3:15 pm
Gutsy pick, I think. I hope Bama wins, but their offense isn’t exactly dominating. A couple of big plays by Texas could be enough. But fellow SEC fans, I’m rooting for Saban and Co.
Gen Neyland
January 7th, 2010
3:15 pm
BamaDad : ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’…I think even the ajc will wait until the final gun to crank up the presses.
Mark Bradley
January 7th, 2010
3:16 pm
We are having issues, as they say, with Wordpress, which is the platform for our blogs. I was just curious how much of an effect it was having on you folks.
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Booger Snot
January 7th, 2010
3:17 pm
I’m picking my nose.
kt
January 7th, 2010
3:17 pm
Texas could win yes, but they won’t. Alabama 28-14
Tide’s gonna Roll tonight!
Peaches
January 7th, 2010
3:19 pm
Hey… wait a minute mister, I just left Vegas and bet a 100 dollar bill on this game. I followed Mr. Oxendine’s advice and bet on Michigan. I thought the clerk seemed unusually jubilant in taking my funds. Nuts, what a poh pooh head.
GoVols
January 7th, 2010
3:19 pm
Some slowness, Mark in refreshing.
hookem
January 7th, 2010
3:20 pm
This will be a defensive standoff. Texas 16-13.
GoVols
January 7th, 2010
3:20 pm
Some slowness, Mark, in refreshing.
Atlanta_Tiger_Fan
January 7th, 2010
3:21 pm
Bama wins tonight easily!
Shonuff
January 7th, 2010
3:23 pm
Everyone keeps bringing up the Tennessee and Auburn games as indictments against Alabama…weren’t both teams playing Alabama after a bye week.
Also, for Texas, I’ll bring up the Nebraska game (could have lost), the Oklahoma game (I believe would have lost if OKL hadn’t of lost Bradford), and even Texas A&M (#1 defense in the country????)
Snow slow
January 7th, 2010
3:23 pm
Mark,
Everything slows down in ATL when it snows…
Mark Bradley
January 7th, 2010
3:23 pm
Again, I apologize on behalf of all bloggers. And I’m just glad you’re not seeing the sluggishness from our end.
willie M
January 7th, 2010
3:23 pm
if Muschamp leaves Texas, I’ve been contacted to be his replacement.
Opinion
January 7th, 2010
3:24 pm
Tell you who’s not going to win……that’s uGA
Mark Bradley
January 7th, 2010
3:24 pm
And yes, Snow Slow, the thought did cross my mind. It’s flurrying up a flurry here in unfashionable West Cobb.
robodawg
January 7th, 2010
3:24 pm
Mark, isn’t there a way we can turn this conversation back to Georgia’s DC search?
I completely agree with you. I’m not sure Texas will win, but I definitely think they could. I don’t have the same feeling I had in ‘05, when I had watched USC make great escape after great escape all season with a less than stellar defense. I am not at all a betting person. But that year I really wanted to take out a good chunk of change and put two thirds of it on Texas beating the spread and the other third on Texas winning the game. Florida’s seeming good fortune to even be playing Ohio State in ‘06 left me with a similar feeling: beware of siding with the media darling. (Remember No. 1 Ohio St vs. No. 2 Michigan being dubbed the game of the century? What a laugh after Florida crushed them.)
I don’t have the same feeling tonight about Texas; I think Bama’s lines may be just too strong for Texas to handle. Especially when the Tide defense plays its best it is pretty impressive stuff. (And tough, grunt, team-effort defense, unbeknownst to the star-struck media world, is what wins championships.) But, you know what, Texas just might be strong enough to pull it off. At least that’s what I’ll be hoping for tonight.
willie M
January 7th, 2010
3:25 pm
if Cowher leaves for the NFL, I’ve been contacted to be his DC.
Doc
January 7th, 2010
3:25 pm
If you want to know how Alabama is going to beat Texas, replay the Florida/Oklahoma game from last year.
Mark Bradley
January 7th, 2010
3:26 pm
I meant no knock on Alabama, Robodawg. It’s a fine team. But in a game of unbeatens, I always like the dynamics of the underdog.
Then again, I’m pretty much always wrong.
Vince Dooley
January 7th, 2010
3:26 pm
wish I could coach in a National Championship game
willie M
January 7th, 2010
3:27 pm
if Bradley leaves the AJC, I’ve been contacted to be his replacement
Bon Bon
January 7th, 2010
3:27 pm
Bama Tex Bama Tex Bama Tex I take Bama by 10,
Mark Bradley
January 7th, 2010
3:27 pm
Doc, I might well regret ever typing this, but I don’t see Alabama having the separation gear that the Gators had last year. And I never believed Oklahoma should have played for the BCS crown. Texas was the better team last season.
Vince Dooley
January 7th, 2010
3:28 pm
BREAKING NEWS:
UGA has just been awarded another National Championship by the Athens A&M Press Poll for its dominating 8-5 season !!!
Mark Bradley
January 7th, 2010
3:29 pm
If Texas loses by five touchdowns, Willie M., I could be leaving tomorrow.
Peaches
January 7th, 2010
3:30 pm
Okay Markie Mark, just a suggestion. Why not post these articles a little earlier and save me a coupla bucks. Just a thought.
Vince Dooley
January 7th, 2010
3:31 pm
Heck I think even Mark Bradley could of coached that 1980 team with Herschel Walker to a National Championship !!!!
Money and Daughter go to Bama
January 7th, 2010
3:32 pm
ROOOLLLLLLLLL TIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIDDDDDDDDDDDDDDEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!
willie M
January 7th, 2010
3:33 pm
don’t worry MB, you’re safe
State of Alabama
January 7th, 2010
3:33 pm
When they say “Come, be part of the family,” they REEEAAALLLYYY mean it.
Smokewagon
January 7th, 2010
3:34 pm
Just my two cents but I don’t think Texas should be on the field with Bama. Bama has grown strength all season long and will blow Texas off the field by halftime. Texas players will know every blade of grass on the field from looking down all game.
Bama fan
January 7th, 2010
3:38 pm
Go Dawgs, they may shut down Ingram but we still have Trent Richardson who is better and faster than Ingram. I don’t think that Texas can shut down both.
Vince Dooley
January 7th, 2010
3:39 pm
dang Techies and their 4 National Championships…..we’ll never catch up !!! Dead gum it !!!
NorthWestDawg
January 7th, 2010
3:40 pm
Mark,
I agree with you. I would also proffer the same thinking goes into Heisman voting. Ingram had 30 yards on 16 carries against Auburn. That’s pathetic for a Heisman trophy winner against a defense as weak as Auburn’s. The Tigers gave up 30 or more points eight times! This wasn’t a stalwart defense we’re talking about.
But against Florida, Ingram did a Yeoman’s work to get 113 yards on 28 carries, with no run longer than 15 yards. That and Colt McCoy almost pulling a Chris Weber-type brain freeze (along with poor stats) to almost lose to Nebraska. … Therefore, Ingram wins the Heisman.
Despite the fact that we finished the regular season with five undefeated teams, none of them have stood out as head and shoulders above the rest.