Attention! Some nut here thinks Texas will beat Alabama
It wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been wrong. Heck, it’d be the third time in three days. (Picked Georgia Tech to win Tuesday in both basketball and football.) But here goes:
I like the Longhorns tonight.
It’s nothing against the SEC. I’ve covered the conference for 30 years and I know full well it’s the best there is. But over those 30 years I’ve learned a little something else, and it’s this: Pay particular attention to an excellent team that’s being given no shot at winning.
Four years ago an undefeated Texas went to California to play for the BCS title and was dismissed out of hand. Because Southern Cal was shooting for a third consecutive national championship. Because the Trojans had not one but two Heisman holders on their roster. Because SC was regarded by us media types as the greatest team ever and therefore invincible.
But it’s a funny thing: Not many teams truly are invincible. Against the wrong opponent on the wrong day, anybody can be unhorsed. And the Trojans played like crazy, at least on offense, that night in Pasadena — I was there, and I well recall Reggie Bush flipping into the end zone and Dwayne Jarrett making like Mr. Fantastic to stretch the ball over the goal line for what seemed the clinching touchdown — and still got beat. Because Vince Young had the greatest single performance I’ve ever seen. Because Texas simply would not go away.
Alabama is a splendid team. Indeed, it’s trying to do something conference brethren Florida and LSU, each of which has won two BCS titles this millennium, couldn’t manage, and that’s finish unbeaten. (Auburn went through the SEC undefeated in 2004 but didn’t get to play for the BCS crown.) And I do believe the raging consensus about the SEC — that its best players tend to be faster than the best players from other leagues — is in fact a fact. But I’d argue that the Big 12 is the league that comes closest to approximating the SEC, and I would never discount an unbeaten Big 12 champ.
Having been around a while, I know how it works: We media types tend to work off the last thing we’ve seen. And on Dec. 5 we saw Alabama trample Florida while Texas nearly pulled a Les Miles and lost to Nebraska. And the Longhorns had a rough ride in College Station on Thanksgiving night against a Texas A&M team that Georgia just crushed without benefit of a defensive coordinator.
That said, no team wins every game by 50 points. At last check, Alabama needed a blocked field goal to survive Tennessee, which would finish 7-6, and the day after Texas struggled to subdue the Aggies the Tide had to rally to beat Auburn. But my point isn’t to derogate Alabama, which is a tough and talented and superbly coached; it’s to suggest those same descriptions apply to its just-as-undefeated opponent.
And we have to be careful when we try to graft one year onto the next. Different seasons bring differing dynamics. Just because Southern Cal had beaten the Big 12 champ (Oklahoma, which was undone when the nicely named Mark Bradley fumbled a punt he shouldn’t have touched) by 36 points in January 2005 didn’t mean the next Big 12 champ would succumb so readily. Just because the SEC has won the past three BCS titles doesn’t mean Alabama is a lock tonight.
Back to 2006: I asked Mack Brown at his day-before media briefing how it felt to have a team that good and be afforded so little chance. (Pretty darn good, he said.) And big-time coaches love these kinds of games. It isn’t often a program like Texas ever gets to be an decided underdog — the spread is only four points, but do you know many folks who are picking against the Tide? — and I’d especially be wary of an underdog that has the better quarterback.
Being my silly self, I picked Texas over Southern Cal back then. (No, it didn’t look good when the Trojans led by 12 points with four minutes left. But it worked out in the end.) Maybe I’m just trying to repeat my one moment of prognosticating perspicacity, but I like the same school to do the same thing in the same stadium.
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849 comments Add your comment
La Jolla Dawg
January 7th, 2010
2:02 pm
You make some very good points, but I hope you are wrong Mark. I think UGA has a better chance of landing Kirby Smart if BAMA wins it all. Seems like it would be easier for him to justify leaving if he goes out on top. That is of course if Mark Richt is even seriously interested in Kirby Smart.
rod
January 7th, 2010
2:02 pm
that’s funny and true.
TC
January 7th, 2010
2:03 pm
But my point isn’t to derogate Alabama…
What does derogate mean?
YES
January 7th, 2010
2:03 pm
Please do not adjust your TV set.
We are controlling the transmission.
We will control the Horizontal.
We will control the Vertical.
You have reached…The Outer Limits.
Yes, web is slow.. NSA is “vaccuming” up a lot more web traffic than usual today
from average law-abiding Americans.
They’re a bunch of………fnmqofnfnwegfivweni……….
Oh shi**……..the NSA just crashed in my door.
!@#$%^&*()_!@#$%^&*()_!@#$%^&*()__fmief_dnwiqo…they’re here.
Hey you bast**ds, I have my Consitutional Rights……@#$%^&*(.
(Silence follows)
Hillbilly Deluxe
January 7th, 2010
2:04 pm
Not only is the blog ridiculously slow, my previous post must be lost in the cosmos somewhere. Too bad, it was brilliant I tell you, absolutely brilliant.
I'll take the points, too!
January 7th, 2010
2:05 pm
Bob Horner – Can’t take original credit for the line but since I heard it at an Alabama – LSU game in Baton Rouge some four decades ago, nobody will know. Got to love LSU fans, (preferably) lubbed up or not!!
Mike S
January 7th, 2010
2:12 pm
With your record for prognostication, Bama fans everywhere are thanking you Mark.
Mike S
January 7th, 2010
2:12 pm
With your record for prognostication, Bama fans everywhere are thank you Mark.
#1 BAMA FAN
January 7th, 2010
2:13 pm
Mark….thanks for picking Texas, it makes me a feel a little more confident. Now if I can get Lou Holtz to take Texas it will be a lock. BAMA 31 Cows 13. RTR
WGD
January 7th, 2010
2:14 pm
I’ll take Bama to cover.
Tim Tebow's Tears
January 7th, 2010
2:16 pm
I think Florida is going to win tonight because Tim Tebow is the best quarterback of all time. Wait, Florida isn’t playing? Who’s ESPN going to talk about? Wahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Where’s Jesse Palmer to hold me…..
D-man
January 7th, 2010
2:16 pm
Hey..yeah…right…uh huh…you know it…’nuff said.
dawg4life
January 7th, 2010
2:16 pm
I’m taking the Bammers tonight.
Hey Bradley, are you blogging during the game tonight? I’m assuming you won’t be in Pasadena, but it’d be cool to blog live from the comfort of your couch, would it not?
Nativebird
January 7th, 2010
2:17 pm
Gee minitly MB, for someone so desperate to the be the one “that told you so” you’re so wrong so often. I guess I can applaude your chivalristic love affair with GT and Paul Johson, but going against the SEC vs. Big 12 just to be the irritant in the prevaling wind is a just wierd. You can make all those great big 12, Texas, Vince young points you want, and STILL choose the odds-favorite…that’d be the SEC team. But I guess that doesn’t set your column apart in the vastly over crowded blogusphere does it.
RHR
January 7th, 2010
2:18 pm
Hope Bama wins but 2 things I can’t shake…. They’ve never beaten Texas and … they’re not the underdog……MB’s prediction is probably the best news of the day for the Roll Tide Nation.
ToccoaDawg
January 7th, 2010
2:18 pm
If Kentucky Bradley is taking Texas call Vegas and bet on Bama.
Elmo
January 7th, 2010
2:21 pm
Of course Mark – we knew how you were going to pick this one. Even a Palm Reader knew your “take”.
ToccoaDawg
January 7th, 2010
2:23 pm
next weeks column. Kentucky beats Georgia in basketball. I told ya so by Mark Bradley.
Bryan
January 7th, 2010
2:26 pm
S-E-C!!!! Lmao…..be over before halftime!
indianman
January 7th, 2010
2:28 pm
bill you need your head check if you think texas beat alabama not in this life time roll tide roll
indianman
January 7th, 2010
2:29 pm
bill you need your head check if you think texas beat alabama not in this life time roll tide roll
YES
January 7th, 2010
2:29 pm
Would anyone like to hear how “water-boarding” works ??
Johnny Test
January 7th, 2010
2:31 pm
Enter your comments here
Tyougg44
January 7th, 2010
2:36 pm
I totally agree, I am even thinking of betting my coworker straight up the Tide doesnt win……they were fortunate to beat Tenn. LSU, and Auburn…and Texas is better than all those…I just have this vibe! The Tide will not win. (hope Im wrong)
Johnny Test
January 7th, 2010
2:36 pm
The blogs are slower because the ususal contingent of Tech fans are hiding from embarrassment.
The fluke win over UGA last year opened a floodgate of smack from the maggot faithful and now they are getting it back in spades.
30 to 24, 24 to 14, 5 bowl losses in a row, CPJ aka the Genius is 0 and 2 in bowl games, 2 pass completions in the Orange bowl LMAO, 73 to 66, 8 of 9 and 60/39. How sweet it is…. GLAD IT HURTS SO BAD
dan
January 7th, 2010
2:37 pm
Although line play is important, in college ball, the team with the better QB usually prevails. McCoy has ice water in his veins and is the far better passer.
dawg4life
January 7th, 2010
2:37 pm
Mark,
I’m taking Bama in this one.
Will you be blogging during the game tonight? (I posed this question once and it hasn’t shown up yet. Guess the blog *IS* slow today.)
Tyougg44
January 7th, 2010
2:38 pm
one more thing, Ole McLeroy probably will have an awful game tonight….time will tell!
DawginLex
January 7th, 2010
2:41 pm
i’m with you General but I just have a gut feeling about McCoy tonight. Of course it could be that sub i just ate for lunch
I’m going way out on my limb here;
Texas 27
Bama 24
HamptonDawg
January 7th, 2010
2:44 pm
Hey Mark, I see you pulled the dictionary out for the blog today. I didn’t know perspicacity was a word! Anyway, you are right on this one. I’ve been saying all along that Texas is not getting its due for this game. The other component that convinced me is that Texas’ experience with Nebraska got them thinking about what they need to do to beat a good D, while the Tide was busy patting themselves on the back for beating UF.
lefty fielder
January 7th, 2010
2:46 pm
Thanks MB.
Hey, Louie, fifty clams on ‘bama.
NSA
January 7th, 2010
2:47 pm
Pay no attetion to YES.
Nothing to see here folks.
Move along.
John
January 7th, 2010
2:48 pm
Colt McCoy is no Vince Young….not even close. Alabama by 21.
SOUTH GA DAWG FAN
January 7th, 2010
2:48 pm
Texas wins 23-17 , Georgia has a new DC by monday but its not a Smart choice for the fans and most whine about it.
just my stab at seeing into the future lets see how it works out.
GO DAWGS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
gdawginkalamazoo
January 7th, 2010
2:49 pm
Mark, about the web being slow. Are you talking about the bloggers or the actual speed of the internet? It will get really bogged down both ways when the Bama faithful get off their shift at 3:00 and start attacking you for your pick.
Realist
January 7th, 2010
2:50 pm
Sam Robards, Dawg Fan,
That’s funny about Tech and wet toilet paper. LOL.
SOUTH GA DAWG FAN
January 7th, 2010
2:51 pm
one more thing if Walker is on the texas sideline at anytime it will be a long night for the TIDE
GO DAWGS !!!!!!!!!!!!!
GO DAWGS
January 7th, 2010
2:55 pm
Colt McCoy makes Texas the better team as Longhorns shut Ingram down just like Auburn did.As I recall Ingram rushed for maybe 38 yards on 20 carries which is what I expect tonight,Texas wins 27-21.
UGA A
January 7th, 2010
2:55 pm
Bama…….. you are safe!!! Bradley has picked Texas! The victory is yours!
Asheville Dawg
January 7th, 2010
2:55 pm
I think Bama wins by three.
Maybe so
January 7th, 2010
2:56 pm
I wouldn’t have agreed with you a month ago. But after watching the bowls and seeing that the SEC isn’t quite as dominate as it used to be, I can see Texas winning this one. It will be one of two games. If it is a blow out, then Bama will be the one putting the hurtin on ‘em. But if it stays close, then I would have to side with Texas. I just think that Texas would win a close game between the two.
Toker Grace
January 7th, 2010
2:56 pm
Forget Alabama.
ROLL GANJA !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Attention! Some nut here thinks Texas will beat Alabama
January 7th, 2010
2:57 pm
[...] the story on Topix Posted in [...]
DT
January 7th, 2010
2:57 pm
people bring up the 2005 national championship game as though USC was unbeatable..heck, but for the Bush Push, ND beat them that year (people forget the referee also badly spotted the run by Leinart on the previous play or they’d never have had the ball at the 1). USC had its worst defense (except maybe this year) under Pete Carroll in 2005 (and it showed in the Championship Game and the ND game, at a minimum). Only the “press” thought USC unbeatable, anyone who followed Texas that year would have called it even, which it was (Texas had a better defense). Hardly the upset of the century (even all 9 years of this century).
To the “do you know anyone who is picking Texas” on the four point spread? Well, yeah, half the people betting are (that’s why the spread is four). Bookies don’t like more bets on one side than the other, that’s how they might lose money. Being blinded a bit by the SEC headlights to think no one else in the nation thinks Texas can win…
Dawg Fud
January 7th, 2010
2:59 pm
great post Gen Neyland
Jamie Gillis
January 7th, 2010
2:59 pm
Mr. Bradley,
You’d be well-advised to avoid using words like “perspicacity” around Texas and Alabama fans. They might believe you are commenting your hygiene, rather than your Kreskin-like predictive abilities.
DawginLex
January 7th, 2010
2:59 pm
Texas 27
Bama 24
BamaDad
January 7th, 2010
3:00 pm
27-13 Bama! Print it, boys!
Hillbilly Deluxe
January 7th, 2010
3:02 pm
The blog has eaten both my previous posts today. They were brilliant I tell you, absolutely brilliant too.
Bama wins
January 7th, 2010
3:03 pm
Bama handled the second best team in the country, the Florida Gators, so they will handle the Horns.