Bradley’s Buzz: Vazquez-for-Cabrera discussed & dissected
Javier, we hardly knew ye. But we liked what we saw. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
You’ve heard what Frank Wren had to say, and maybe you’ve even read my cool-headed thoughts on the matter. Today we leave it to outsiders. Or, in point of fact, to folks like ESPN.com’s Insiders. We start with the estimable Keith Law, who says the Braves didn’t get completely fleeced. (Link requires registration.) Writes Law:
“The key player in this trade for Atlanta is Arodys Vizcaino, who becomes one of the top five prospects in the Braves’ system and gives them a trio of potential No. 1 or No. 2 starters in the low minors with Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. Vizcaino, who pitched at short-season Staten Island this past season, has a live fastball that sits 91-93 mph and touches a little higher. He throws a curveball that flashes plus and should miss bats at the big league level when he reaches it. He already has good feel for pitching and just needs experience and a little cleanup in his delivery, as he often finds his arm slot drifting down, at which point he starts to sling the ball instead of just throwing it.
“The Braves also get a few years of control of Melky Cabrera, a capable fourth outfielder who can play an average center field and has a plus arm. I don’t think Cabrera has the offensive skills to play every day in a corner outfield spot, particularly because of his willingness to expand the zone and chase pitches that most hitters wouldn’t consider. Atlanta could use him as a platoonmate for Matt Diaz, a right-handed hitter who has a 200-point career platoon split, or as a backup at all three outfield spots, playing him behind Diaz, Nate McLouth and — assuming he makes the club — Jason Heyward, the top prospect in baseball.
“Cabrera was a Super Two [eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service] this past offseason and should earn between $2.5 million and $3 million this offseason in arbitration, which is fairly pricey for a fourth outfielder. The third piece going to the Braves, Mike Dunn, is a converted outfielder with arm strength — he hit 94 repeatedly when I saw him in the Arizona Fall League — but he has 40 command at best on the 20-80 scale. He also has an inconsistent slider with some late break but that he has trouble finishing. It’s possible he’ll improve his command and/or control with more experience, but after nearly 400 pro innings, he’s still below-average in both departments.
“Atlanta’s need to make this deal dates back a full year to the signing of Kenshin Kawakami, to whom the team owes more than $13 million in the next two years. The Braves signed Kawakami despite having Tommy Hanson knocking on the door of the majors last winter and Tim Hudson returning from injury — a situation perfect for a one-year stopgap but one that made signing Kawakami [along with Derek Lowe] superfluous. Kawakami is untradable given his contract, and to clear a roster spot and payroll, they had to move their best starter from 2009. It’s a salary dump, and one in which Atlanta is lucky to get a young pitcher as good as Vizcaino, who is among the top 100 prospects in the game.”
And now we turn to the equally estimable Jayson Stark, who believes (as many have suggested) the Braves aren’t finished dealing. (Link also requires registration.) Writes Mr. Stark:
“Let’s characterize the Braves’ next move this way: The [Javier] Vazquez deal frees up about $9 million for the Braves to spend on upgrading their offense — Vazquez’s $11.5-million salary and the half-million in cash they’ll get from the Yankees, minus the $3 million or so Cabrera will make via arbitration. They’ll now look to use that surplus on an outfield bat, a first baseman or possibly both.
Johnny Damon is one possibility, particularly because his home in Orlando is within minutes of the Braves’ spring-training complex. Another option is free agent Xavier Nady, who could play first or the outfield and would come at a relatively low base because he is recovering from his second Tommy John surgery. Or the Braves could look to deal an outfielder — either Cabrera or possibly Jordan Schafer — for a bat. They’ve been linked in trade rumors to Florida’s Dan Uggla, who could potentially slide to first base.”
Writing for SI.com, Andrew Marchman also sees the Braves’ glass as being half-full. Quoth Mr. Marchman:
“The Braves got, it should be said, a better package for Vazquez than the Phillies did for Cliff Lee last week. The most important player they acquired is righthander Arodys Vizcaino , who, like any other teenage pitcher, is liable to break his team’s heart but who has, by all accounts, a serious chance at becoming a star.
“Melky Cabrera is a bad fit for the Braves, as they already have a crowded outfield and a very good center fielder, and most of Cabrera’s value is in his ability to provide vaguely average offense and solid defense in center, but at least he’s a valuable player who gives the team a lot of options. The third player, lefty Mike Dunn, is the proverbial live arm.
“For the Braves, the deal will be judged a success or failure based on what they do with the roughly $8 million that they freed up by moving Vazquez. They have enough starting pitching to sustain the loss, so if they can add a needed bat with that money and trade a spare outfielder to fill another need, they’ll likely come out ahead. If not, they’ll have missed an opportunity. But judged in its own right, this is a fair trade.”
Finally, Danny Knobler of CBSsports.com believes this deal could be a precursor to another. But not, apparently, the needed Big Bat Trade. Writes Mr. Knobler:
“The Braves always intended to trade either Vazquez or Derek Lowe for a much-needed bat. Cabrera could help them, but he’s not really that bat. So the Braves will take the approximately $9 million they save and keep shopping. They say they still can’t afford Matt Holliday or Jason Bay (and probably not even Johnny Damon), but who does that leave them with? Jermaine Dye? Marlon Byrd? Or another trade? [And] if the Braves believe that the 25-year-old Cabrera can be a long-term answer in center field, does that mean they’d make Jordan Schafer available in a trade?”
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217 comments Add your comment
FoxNoise.net
December 23rd, 2009
7:54 am
Ever since Andrew Jones lost his swing the Braves have been cursed in the outfield.
Jackets2009
December 23rd, 2009
7:59 am
Gardner is a young Yankee outfielder with more potential than Cabrera.
Jackets2009
December 23rd, 2009
8:00 am
Andruw’s demise as a hitter coincide with the demise of the Gold Club. Just kiding.
Jackets2009
December 23rd, 2009
8:02 am
The millions we can’t afford are chump change to the Yankees. Adding to last year’s World Series Champion, how is the season not already over?
Tim
December 23rd, 2009
8:03 am
Yep, San Diego is looking for a CF and even at $5 million a year probably need to move Adrian Gonzalez. Let’s hope the NY trade was to free up $$$ and get Melky to facilitate a 2nd trade to SD for Gonzalez. Freeing a net $10 million in the NY trade would allow the Braves to pay Gonzalez – plus have $$$ to acquire an OF.
Justin in NM
December 23rd, 2009
8:06 am
While I think Adrian Gonzalez would be a nice pickup (and fill a void at 1B), we’d almost certainly have to include Freddie Freeman in that trade. I don’t see that happening. Gonzalez is a LH hitter, we are an already LH heavy lineup. Dan Uggla makes more sense, as he’d be the RH bat, and, either he or Prado would slide to 1B. Chipper has maybe 1-2 years left, at which time Freeman would be ready for 1B and then Prado could move to 3B, Uggla to 2B….
The issue I see here though – would Florida trade Uggla within the division?
Wren has been pretty good at keeping things under wraps. We didn’t hear of the JV trade until pretty much right before it happened – so he very well could be working on a deal for someone we’re not considering. Right now though, I think Uggla is way more probable than AG.
papadawg
December 23rd, 2009
8:07 am
Please, NO to Damon, he’s only decent when surrounded by great players
Justin in NM
December 23rd, 2009
8:07 am
The other possibility is Mark DeRosa – RH hitter, some power – but is he really the “power bat” we’re looking for?
Jackets2009
December 23rd, 2009
8:08 am
What if the Yankees do the deals we want the Braves to do? With Vasquez, they can offer one of their young SPs in a deal?
Mark posting at 4:52.
This trade must have bummed him so much he didn’t get much sleep.
Or are you so dedicated to your job you decided to sleep only 4 hours a day?
Jackets2009
December 23rd, 2009
8:12 am
Anyone want to venture an estimate of how many millions Vazquez’s numbers would command if he were a free agent. I doubt Vazquey is keen about going back to the AL east but it will mean playing on a WS Champion. With what the Yankees spend, really the only thing holding them back is getting that first one under their belt like their run in the 90s.
Jackets2009
December 23rd, 2009
8:13 am
The main upside to this trade: I can agree with Uga fans for a few days.
SimpleDawg
December 23rd, 2009
8:15 am
Bad Move ! Stupid Trade ! Everybody needs pitching……the Braves just traded their best pitcher for an average outfielder with a Francouer strike zone but none of the defensive skills, a real project, and a young pitcher with a lot of potential….which ol’ Falcon Jeff Van Note correctly categorized as “a French word meaning you haven’t done $#!+, yet”.
Good luck Frankie in making chicken salad out of this chicken $#!+ trade.
Damn it, Ted. Why did you ever sell the Braves?
F-105 Thunderchief
December 23rd, 2009
8:15 am
The bottom line remains, Atlanta weakened its pitching and did not upgrade its offense at all. To make this deal worthwhile, Wren must, must get a big bat with that money. Mr. Wren, your cojones are on the block … proceed, sir.
This could be a great trade!
December 23rd, 2009
8:19 am
At first I was shocked by this trade, but after much reading, I think this could have the makings of a great trade. Let’s assume the Braves trade MC, now the Braves have the full 11.5 Million from freeing up JV’s contract, throw in the 500k cash and that gives us 12 million to spend on a big bat! If the key player was the number 3 prospect in the Yankees minor league system, we may have a great number 3 starter when Hudson is done. Meanwhile, Javier Vazquez brings his numbers back to where they have been historically, D Lowe has a better season than last year, and they have a flame thrower in the bull pen to come in and be a decent situational pitcher from time to time.
If someone told me we traded Javy Vazquez for a 12 million per year cleanup hitter (or we throw a little more money in and get a 15 million per year clean up hitter at 1B or outfield), and that we got the third best Yankees prospect and a live arm for the bullpen for JV, I would be pretty excited.
Let’s follow this trade through to the end before we judge Frank Wren.
coach smith
December 23rd, 2009
8:21 am
First of all get it straight
The Braves got 500k in the deal so they have 9 Million Dollars freed up…Combine that with the 3 million they didn’t give Kelly Johnson and the Braves have roughly 12 MILLION DOLLARS TO SPEND
Here is what WREN said on 790 yesterday
“There’s definitely some more things we’re doing.” When asked directly if he was looking to add a middle of the order bat, Wren replied “We think we’re in the mix for a guy just like that. We’re going to add a run producer that’s going to round out our offense.”
I think this is exciting
Wren flat out says that the Braves ARE GOING TO ADD A MIDDLE OF THE ORDER RUN PRODUCER
Jackets2009
December 23rd, 2009
8:23 am
Like he did last year?
Jackets2009
December 23rd, 2009
8:25 am
The only way this is a great trade is if the Yankee guy in single A is another Smoltz. That’s a big if.
Me I hate anything that helps the Yankees.
Who can stop them now?
j
December 23rd, 2009
8:34 am
MELKY=DUMPSTER
WREN=DUMPSTER
clint ellison
December 23rd, 2009
8:34 am
Bravos must have a bonafide cleanup guy. You gotta have average, consistency and power in the 4 hole. The dealings I have seen so far make no sense. We sent a great relief man, Soriano, to the Sunshine State and signed 38 yr old Wagner. I see no real upside there. Now, you got a glut of average outfielders with no pop. I like LaRoche’s bat and glove, but you still gotta get a bopper. I don’t understand the Braves’ thinking. Perhaps it will all become clear in the next life.
Jackets2009
December 23rd, 2009
8:35 am
Congrats Mark. You’ve really been spot on in your columns on this deal.
frosgrim
December 23rd, 2009
8:36 am
I strongly believe that the Braves have another move or two in store. Guys I DO NOT want to see:
Uggla- he’s 29 and strikes out way too much- he’s headed for a Marcus Giles type decline
Nady- unless we get him on the cheap, he is not worth the gamble. Too fragile for a team that is in need of pop
Damon- Left handed, weak-armed CF. Where does he fit in the lineup? Not a lot of pop in his bat either
ZamBonE
December 23rd, 2009
8:43 am
Gardner does not have more potential than Melky. I watch almost every Yankee game and I can tell you that Gardner is never going to be a legit starter at the major league level unless he plays for the natinals. I would have loved to give up Gardner instead of Melky. Gardner is a slap hitter that relies only on his speed. I wouldn’t mind if he slapped singles, but he hits weak pop flys way too often and rarely drives the ball. If he wasn’t that fast, he would be a minor league player for life. Gardner also thinks hes faster than he is on the bases, and ends up making dumb outs. Gardner is also a year older than Melky.
tbhawksfan
December 23rd, 2009
8:44 am
It’s entirely possible that Wren trades for a #4 BAT in OF and re-ups LaRoche. Something of this nature is going to happen. In that senario we’d be looking at a true #4, LaRoche #5 and McC #6 with Chipper #3 and decent power at SS and with Heyward and McC.
And a nice rotation and pen.
I’m excited about the possibilities and the potential.
I’m also not penciling in Freeman at 1B yet. H’es a year or two from potentially being a MLB starter. I’d trade him in a second to have this type of lineup.
TomR
December 23rd, 2009
8:45 am
Stop it, stop it, stop it! Frank Wren, stop trading Braves talent for NOTHING. Half the future of the club for a Mark Texiera rental. Francoeur for NOTHING. The best pitcher (Vazquez) the Braves have had in years for a fourth outfielder to platoon with Diaz! What are you thinking!!!!
willie martinez
December 23rd, 2009
8:45 am
Mark, the insomnia is kicking in i see.
F-105 Thunderchief
December 23rd, 2009
8:49 am
I’m in favor of sending all these Yankees, plus Freddie Freeman to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez.
cj
December 23rd, 2009
8:54 am
I am a bit confused by the trade. I do, however, I understand the money situation. What are we clearing the room for though? We are not going to get Holliday or Bey. By the way, someone mentioned we got one of the best closers of all time…..at 39? That’s a long term solution. Let’s throw all our money at someone like….Derek Lowe, oh yes we already have done that. Hard to read between the lines or behind the scenes to see what is reallly going on.
Kashi
December 23rd, 2009
9:00 am
If we don’t get a proven power bat to back Chiper. This season is over by start of spring trainning. We don’t have lead off hitter. Chipper avg will hover around 260 + hurt. They will just walk brian or give nothing to hit. Escobar will try hard to drive in runs but he will get nothing to hit or there won’t be any on base. Now who do we have beside ailing chipper and brian in our lineup who poses threat to pitcher. O gooosh, something needs to be done. We have bigger problem then any team. 1. LaRoch bat, 2. left field void, 3. uncertain right field and 4. 3RD base. I don’t know what to say…
To get Javy we gave up good shortstop Brent, power hitter catcher Tyler, and two minor leaguers. In return we got 1 yr service, Melky, Dunn, and promising super star. I would say fair exchange but we have seen lots of promising super start didn’t even make it to team many times.
willie martinez
December 23rd, 2009
9:04 am
braves already have 4 4th outfielders.
EW
December 23rd, 2009
9:04 am
Now that the shock of the deal has worn off I feel better. We really were left with no other options it seems. We had to dump some money somewhere and we cashed in on Javy’s good year. Who knows what next year will bring, but I think it’s gonna be tough to duplicate last year in the Bronx. Javy will see consistently better hitting in the AL and pitching in NY is an animal all its own (being a veteran and being there before weigh in Javy’s favor though). I hope we use the freed up cash wisely, while I want the big name we need stability. A one year stop would be foolish. I like that Dan Uggla’s name is being thrown around, he kills us in that division rivalry. I’m keeping a positive head on this til we see more.
ZamBonE
December 23rd, 2009
9:04 am
Wren is thinking there is no chance Vazquez comes close to putting up the numbers he did last season. Look at his career numbers and break it down by each season. Last year was BY FAR his best season as a major league player. His career .505 record and ERA of 4.19 does not make him a great pitcher by any stretch of the imagination. Not to mention he gives up and avg of 28 HRs a season. He had a great season last year (15-10 2.87 ERA), but he’s only an average pitcher.
With all the starters the Braves have (Lowe, Hudson, Jurrgens, and Hanson), trading one of their higher paid pitchers coming off a great year is the best way to get value. He hits the market after this season and since baseball is a game of averages, Vazquez is most likely to assume his role as a decent big league pitcher.
EW
December 23rd, 2009
9:07 am
OBTW, whoever we get will need to bat cleanup. McCann can do it, but it’s silly to bat a catcher cleanup when he’s out every fifth day.
MB, Is Heyward a leadoff hitting type? I hate to say I haven’t read up on him enough. Either way, I think we are looking good speed wise (not that Bobby will steal bases) but once again we have to get one more bat.
Don
December 23rd, 2009
9:13 am
First of all the Braves should not have traded Vazquez, period. With Cox managing, their only chance of winning the Division (as always) was to have Pitching so dominant – so far far superior to the other teams – that it would overcome Cox’s management procedures and lack thereof (his incompentence) and enable them to win over the long 162 game regular season schedule, in spite of him. With Vazquez goes the slim chance they had of being competitive in 2010. Vazquez would mean more to winning than any bat they could acquire as a result of this.
Secondly, even if they were going to trade Pitching, they seem to have forgotten that the name of the game is Pitching and that Pitching is and will be at a premium. All they had to do was be patient and they could have received great talent for both Vazquez and Soriano. What they recieved for them is absurd. By the end of spring training, the demand for either of them would have been great and they could have just about named their own price in terms of what they could have recieved.
SimpleDawg
December 23rd, 2009
9:13 am
Still looks like a stupid trade for the Braves. Trading a proven front line starter and a good middle relief guy for a 4th outfielder and 2 pie-in-the-sky prospects doesn’t smell right on any level.
fsugolf8166
December 23rd, 2009
9:17 am
i would like to know who they are looking at is it
miguel cabrera i hope its this one
adrain gonzalez dont see no chance in h***
adam dunn ok i guess
wouldnt mind this lineup but just dreaming
c mccann
1st cabrera
2nd prado
ss escobar
3rd jones/glaus
of mclouth
of heyward
of dye/diaz
Ralph Garr
December 23rd, 2009
9:19 am
Guys the Braves did not do this guy a favor by sending him to the Yankees! That is probably the last place he wanted to be traded. Remember the home run he gave up to Damon? I know all of New Your does!
Jim R
December 23rd, 2009
9:25 am
We’re still months away from the springb training and the regular season and most of you bloggers can’t see the forest for the trees. Melky is a proven major league player. That said he is tradable and so is Jordan Shafer and several other players. I don’t think this is the team that breaks spring training and if you do you need to be watching soccer or some other sport you know nothing about. Remember John Schuerholz is still an integral part of the Braves. Chill. Everything will be alright.
BravestBrave
December 23rd, 2009
9:28 am
#1 ace gone. No 1 hitter? Better lineup? So far we have lost our best trade bait for a role player with no power, not resigning our best producer over the last half of the season, and expect to get a starting power guy for prospects. Forget it. Johnny Damon is not coming here. Or any other power hitter that can still play or we would have had Griffey last year. This organization has been nibbling around the edges trying to make magic that is not there anymore. There are no Fred McGriffs out there that you can pick up for chump change. If the Braves front office don’t start thinking like champions, it will be a long time before the wins are back after September.
Don
December 23rd, 2009
9:28 am
DOUBLE STUPID:
First, to trade Vazquez at all was absurd. He would contribute more to winning the Division than any bat we could possible acquire. With Vazquez goes any chance we had of being competive.
Second, to trade him for what we received is beyond belief. With some patience, by end of spring training, a great player or players could have been received.
Are we sure that Frank Wren was not out of town – and that this trade was made by Bobby Cox.
Traver
December 23rd, 2009
9:33 am
Still don’t like it. This trade had to happen because of the bad decision last year on Lowe. Frank still screwed it up.
Sporty Black
December 23rd, 2009
9:36 am
Once upon a 14 year streak, we did it from within (with a McGriff sprinkled here and there). If it aint’t broke, don’t fix it Mr. Wren. Let’s dump these career average (at best) players such as McClouth, Cabrerra, and even Derrick Lowe. Lets put our youth to work (who by the way is cheap labor) and see what happens. We were forced to do that in the late 80’s and look what happened. Bye-bye Dale Murphy is analogous to bye-bye Chipper Jones. And finally, let’s get some SPEED and ‘attitude’in the line-up. This team has no personality.
Random
December 23rd, 2009
9:36 am
Thanks, MB!!!
Ernest
December 23rd, 2009
9:41 am
In my 6:21am post, I mentioned the interview with Fran Wren by 790theZone. Listen to it for yourself at:
http://www.790thezone.com/Recaps/Channels/Story.aspx?ID=1178174
and select Frank Wren.
Making an early evaluation of this trade is like evaluating each move of a chess game. This move was obviously made to set something else up. Those who are passing judgment without looking at the big picture or even listening to what the GM had to say about the trade (and future moves) are without a clue. The same question again, who like the Vasquez trade last year when it was made?
130on2
December 23rd, 2009
9:41 am
SimpleDawg is right. Just guessing, but even the ‘can’t miss’ prospects miss about 50% of the time. This trade reminds me of Neville Chamberlain and Hitler’s ‘negotiotions’. Unfortunately, we are the Chamberlains.
Run To The Other Blog
December 23rd, 2009
9:43 am
Troy Glaus to the Braves to play 1B close, according to Ken Rosenthal
EW
December 23rd, 2009
9:47 am
I think ppl need to relax. Our starting rotation is FINE without Vasquez. Hell, Jurjens would have won a Cy Young with run support. And he will be a #3 starter more than likely. Tim Hudson, D Lowe, JJ, Hanson, and KK. We have the pitching, experience in the pen (mark my words, having veteran pro at the end of the game will help our entire pen). We have the tools on hand to trade for the bat we need. And we WILL. RELAX
Gerard Voinski
December 23rd, 2009
9:49 am
The day will come, and it will be soon, that Braves fans will be very grateful indeed to Brian Cashman for giving Melky Cabrera to them.
F-105 Thunderchief
December 23rd, 2009
9:49 am
Glaus is expensive and bad.
Ernest
December 23rd, 2009
9:50 am
I should have mentioned above to look under the Pollack and Bell Podcast section for the interview on 12/22 with Frank Wren.
Hey Sporty,
December 23rd, 2009
9:50 am
Right on, bro’. Right on!