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Mark Bradley

Bradley’s Buzz: Heyward, Hanson among best of new decade

10:19 am December 15, 2009, by Mark Bradley

There’s no science so inexact as the projection of baseball talent. We know this because Brad Komminsk was not, alas, a first-ballot Hall of Famer. (He made it on the second try — ha, ha.) We know this because the young man Sports Illustrated proclaimed “The Natural” in 2005 was deemed substandard, though not by SI, in 2009.

Still, it’s worth noting that Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has posted his list of the top 20 players for the next decade on ESPN.com’s Insiders (link requires registration), and one of the 20 hasn’t yet had a big-league at-bat. Yes, at No. 13, it’s Jason Heyward, the Braves’ right-fielder-in-waiting. Writes Goldstein:

“The top position player prospect in the game, Heyward has a chance at opening 2010 in the big leagues, and even if that doesn’t work out, he’ll be in Atlanta well before he can legally drink to celebrate his accomplishment. A potential ‘face of the franchise’-level talent, Heyward hits for average, hits for power, draws walks and even runs a bit. He could be Dale Murphy, V2.”

And then, at No. 17, comes another young Brave. (No, not Greg Norton.) Of Tommy Hanson, Goldstein writes:

“Had the Braves opened the 2009 season with Hanson in the rotation (which would have been the right decision), we’d be talking about your reigning National League rookie of the year. Instead, we’re talking about one of the circuit’s best young arms. The only thing keeping him from ranking higher is that some scouts and execs feel his ceiling is “a consistent 15-18 game winner” as opposed to ‘a true ace.’ “

Me, I’m thinking that if you win 18 games every year, that might make you a true ace. But maybe BP has higher standards than ol’ MB here. At any rate, I present the entire Top 20 for your perusal:

  1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins
  2. Justin Upton, OF, D-backs
  3. Joe Mauer, C, Twins
  4. Tim Lincecum, RHP, Giants
  5. Zack Greinke, RHP, Royals
  6. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays
  7. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers
  8. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals
  9. Felix Hernandez, RHP, Mariners
  10. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals
  11. Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers
  12. Jon Lester, LHP, Red Sox
  13. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves
  14. Adam Jones, CF, Orioles
  15. Brett Anderson, LHP, A’s
  16. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
  17. Tommy Hanson, RHP, Braves
  18. Rick Porcello, RHP, Tigers.
  19. Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers
  20. David Wright, 3B, Mets

OK, that’s the good news. Here’s the bad: Among the honorable mentions are two former Braves prospects — Elvis Andrus and Neftali Feliz, both now of Texas, both exported to import Mark Teixeira, who stayed a year. Ah, well. Live and learn.

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112 comments Add your comment

gcs

December 15th, 2009
1:03 pm

Dear Red Sox,

THANK YOU FOR SIGNING MIKE CAMERON!

Love,
Braves Fans

Brian

December 15th, 2009
1:14 pm

Methinks some folks are making too big a deal out of the “true ace” comment. For these scout-types like Baseball Prospectus, the term ace isn’t thrown around as easily as it is among fans and media. The only guys they would probably put in that category right now are Lincecum, Hernandez, Sabathia, and Halladay. Maybe Greinke got there this year. He said that “some” are projecting him on the next tier, which is still really good. Guys like Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Andy Pettitte were rarely if ever on that “ace” level, but they’re all either surefire or borderline Hall of Famers.

Mitchell (now in Dallas!)

December 15th, 2009
1:15 pm

It doesn’t matter what happens. It won’t matter if Heyward comes up and is the second coming of the guy in that book that was made into that movie with that guy Paul Redford (or was Robert Newford?).

It won’t matter if Brian McCann has an MVP season or if Chipper hits .300 or if Jurrjens, Hanson and Vasquez compete for the Cy Young award next season. Bobby Cox is still the manager for another year and in my estimation, is currently one of the very worst in baseball as of December 2009. Not of all time, mind you. This has nothing to do with the four lost World Series or only winning a single playoff series in the 2000s (okay, it has a little to do with that). It has everything to do with the fact that 99% of people on planet earth are worse at whatever they do at age 68 than at 48 or even 58. It has to do with the fact that if we just possesed some of the most basic fundamentals of baseball, if we had an even remotely competent coaching staff (not you McDowell), if we could actually score runs late in games or support our pitchers when they have the very rare bad start or how about when they have a nearly flawless game and get nothing… we would have easily made the playoffs if not won the division. We sure as hell wouldn’t have finished 3rd for the fourth time in four years!

Don’t get me wrong, I love the Braves. I’ve already begun suffering severe withdrawl from baseball’s absence. I’ll definitely be watching and following the team upon the blessed arrival of spring but in spite of the fact that they should by all accounts be a team capable of playing in (and preferably winning) a World Series, it’s not gonna happen.

If know one thing for sure it’s that by the time Billy Wagner makes his 60th appearances of the season in a game in late August, he will attempt to throw a third strike to seal a game with a win and his arm will literally tear off apart from his body and will eventually land in a bloody mess in the visitors’ dugout.

Seriously, can we get a pitcher who wasn’t born in the ’50s one of these days? Has anybody noticed how much Bobby abuses his bullpen? I mean, come on.

Sorry folks. I’ve been fooled for the last time. Face it, recent history tells us they’re far more likely to finish 4th or yet again 3rd than to win a thing.

Roja

December 15th, 2009
1:21 pm

And after Frenchy left the Braves, “he is going to be a good hitter” too as he proved the last 2 and 1/2 months of the 2009 season. And he is a much better fielder than his replacements were in 2009.

Roja

December 15th, 2009
1:23 pm

Most of the 2009 relievers deserved to be abused. They blew 21 saves for goodness sakes. Even the Rays only blew 22 and they think that Soriano is an upgrade. Here is a quote from a Tampa, FL sports writer: “Even if the Rays do nothing else this winter, they’ve upgraded significantly by jumping on the chance to acquire Soriano…”

Ted M

December 15th, 2009
1:29 pm

Don said it best yesterday

Don

December 14th, 2009
11:21 am

Speaking of questions about the Braves. How many times have you seen Bobby Cox do/fail to do things that violate even the most simple fundamentals of WINNING, things that no manager would do at any level of baseball. HOW many times HAVE YOU SEED BOBBY COX:
(1) Keep a player in the regular line up on and on and on after it is obvious to any knowledgable fan that he cannot produce.
(2) Keep a player at a set spot in the top part of the batting order when he is in a terrrible prolonged slump.
(3) Fail to move players up and down in the batting order based on who is hot and who is not.
(4) Keep on using a relief pitcher over and over and over when it is obvious that he is not going to be effective.
(5) Keep on using a Pinch Hitter over and over and over when it obvious that he is not going to produce.
(6) Keep a player on the bench when it is obvious that he is far, far better than on of the regulars who he likes and is playing.
(7) Fail to have his hitters work the count and put pressure on a Pitcher at a turning point in the game when it is obvious that the pitcher is out of sinc/ lost his release point etc.
(8) Allow hitters to swing at the next pitch when a pitcher is wild, walking/ hitting men – and get the pither out of trouble instead of putting more pressure on him.
(9) Fail to make the opposing starting pitcher throw a lot of pitches when the team has a weak bullpen.
(10) Overwork his bullpen to the point that it becomes ineffective.
(11) Make no adjustments in his lineup and in his batting order based on the past success or lack of success that hitters have had against a given pitcher.
(12) Make no effort whatsoever to teach, emphasize, demand that his hitters be patient, get good pitches to hit, work the count.
(13) Put no pressure on the opposing pitcher when he is in trouble or at possible key turning points in the game.

Mitchell (now in Dallas!)

December 15th, 2009
1:30 pm

Also, every single team in this division is going to better next year than they were this year. Even the Mets! If they were going to do it (i.e. make the playoffs), last year was their year.

Plus you have the Giants, Dodgers Rockies, Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers to compete with for a Wild Card.

Plus we have three series with the Pirates next year. I mean, that’s about seven games right there in the loss column.

I for one really appreciated how they responded to adversity when it came down to it, needing to win those final six games at the end of the year to have a chance. How many of those did we end up winning? I can’t remember.

Of course, as we have learned, they can’t possibly be expected to win if they’re aren’t 50 thousand people in the stands every night.

But that’s completely understandable. I mean, look at the Florida teams. Nobody goes to their games and look what they’ve done in recent years… nothing.

Sarcasm. It’s what I do.

F-105 Thunderchief

December 15th, 2009
1:35 pm

I hope Pacman, er, rather Adam Jones has got his life turned around and will be a better citizen in MLB than he was in the NFL.

WNCfan

December 15th, 2009
1:39 pm

While it’s an impressive list of young talent, Iceman’s right to wonder why McCann is missing.

Brownie

December 15th, 2009
1:47 pm

Recently read the interesting article about the “Baby Braves”, and that only Mac is left – lots of talented guys either left for greener pastures or just didn’t pan out. OK, here goes some thoughts:

Hanson: If he can win 18 every year…that’s an Ace! His delivery is funky, and any base runners with ANY speed will steal on him easily – too slow to the plate. But, I believe he will pan out.

Heyward: Haven’t really seen him play, but looking at some video, and reading about his attibutes (size, arm, range, attitude, etc.), I don’t see him as a Dale Murphy type, but more as a young Ken Griffey, Jr.. If he becomes 75% of the player Jr. was, we’re in for a treat.

Escobar: Should’ve been on their list – he’s get every tool in spades (except blazing speed). I saw some real maturing during last season, and he will be the Braves best player before the end of the next campaign.

JJ: He’s not on the list??!! Someone made a comment that for a little more run support, he would have been in position to win the Cy Young – very true.

On a different note: the just-completed trades for Halliday, Lee, Lackey, et al, are good news for the Braves, I think. This essentially removes the most coveted pitchers from the market, and there are a large number of teams searching for starter. This means that Derek Lowe moves up a bit on the “Next Best” list of available arms. If the Bravos can’t cut a decent deal for him, don’t be surprised if Vasquez gets moved, but that WILL lead to bringing back a better position player (hopefully someone with some pop).

Last big question for the Braves in ‘10: Who will they put at 1st base? Freeman won’t be ready, and don’t expect to see Chipper there (A. he’s never played 1st and would likely get more injuries there than at 3rd – can’t you see him stretching for a low throw across the infield?? Doh, there goes the groin, hammy, ankle…fill in the blank. B. We really don’t have anyone for 3rd to replace him if he did move over). IF Heyward is ready, I wouldn’t mind seeing if Diaz can handle 1st.

Better yet…go get Nady.

Chris Broe

December 15th, 2009
1:50 pm

Maybe Jason Heyward hasn’t fulfilled early predictions about his career because some mystery woman shot him or something. We shouldn’t judge. He may tear the cover off the ball and destroy lights yet.

SoWeGa Fanatic

December 15th, 2009
1:53 pm

Any such list as this without McCann on it is a bogus list.

Mr. Thomas Anthony "The Taxman Cometh" Jones, SR (Waf-SS, ret.)

December 15th, 2009
2:02 pm

There is no excuse fior the losers in the Atlanta Braves’ front office (That fool Frank Wren/loser) not bringing Mr. Heyward up this year. And why didn’t that fool bring up Mr. hanson up earlier also. Why did Braves treat Smoltz and Glavine like dogs this year. Fire Wren. If I owned the braves Wren would be fired after he dogged out Smoltz and Glavine. Wren is the worst GM in MLB when it comes to treating playwers with respect and dignity. If some one does not treat you with respect and dignity go postal on theior sorry butt. Fired Wren. We hate Wren.ing heyward up now you stupid GM.

Ron Roberts

December 15th, 2009
2:08 pm

ProScout, you make a valid point, but we can counter with McCann, Jurrjens, and I still think Yunel’s best days are still ahead of him. Our cupboard’s not exactly bare.

Chop Chop

December 15th, 2009
2:29 pm

This SI list is a travesty! There should have been at least ten Braves on it!

How can Prado not be #17 on the list???????????!!!?!?!?

When is SI going to realize that baseball does not exist outside of Atlanta?

leland

December 15th, 2009
2:31 pm

Larvell–don’t use “as well” to mean “also.”

TNT

December 15th, 2009
2:46 pm

wait wait wait. did somebody say theyre not sold on hanson? your smokin somethin chief

FoxNoise.net

December 15th, 2009
2:51 pm

I’m convinced Bobby will develop the talent but I’d like to see a ranking of baseball GM’s to see where Mr. Wren stacks up. Hopefully he proves to be as good at adding hitters to the club as he’s been at adding pitchers.

SEC Dominance

December 15th, 2009
3:04 pm

Lots of hype for Heyward. God, I need to see this guy play @ Gwinnett next year.

Big trade

December 15th, 2009
3:10 pm

The best thing about todays blockbuster deal with Halladay, Lee and the Red Sox signing of Lackey is that the number one big name available now is our very own Derek Lowe. That sets the market for him and I’ve already heard the Yanks are talking to Wren about giving us a big bat for Lowe so they can keep pace with the Red Sox. Also rumor has it that the Angels want Lowe since they lost out on Halladay and Lackey and they’ll give us Juan Rivera plus one prospect. Lowe could be gone very soon!

Scott Case

December 15th, 2009
3:14 pm

Did he do one of these for the decade of the 00’s?

the real Andy

December 15th, 2009
3:25 pm

really folks, complaining that JJ, McCann and Escobar aren’t on that list is a little silly. i can see the arguments, especially with JJ, but it’s the projected 20 best players in the league we’re talking about. the other 29 clubs had a combined 18 players on it.

and in case you didn’t notice, those were some pretty amazing players, for most of whom i’d gladly give up McCann or Escobar in a one-for-one trade. no offense to any of our guys, of course.

Hillbilly Deluxe

December 15th, 2009
3:26 pm

I’m just an old country boy and I don’t really know what an “ace” is but if you can win 15-18 games for 20 years, they can go ahead and punch your ticket to the Hall.

siskel_god

December 15th, 2009
3:28 pm

How in the world did Porcello make the list and JJ and Mac didn’t? Mauer had a fantastic year, but last year everybody thought Mac’s future was brighter so he had a down year and we forget him? Porcello might be good but I take exception with him, Strasburg, and even Brett Anderson being on the list ahead of JJ. Strasburg has Ben McDonald, Kerry Wood, and Mark Prior wrote all over him. And what about everybody’s darling last year David Price? No Pedro Alvarez either? And Pujols is a little old to be on a list of guys for the next twenty years isn’t he? Like Tejada, we’re gonna find out dude is actually forty and been on the juice, chalk it up.

AdirondackDave

December 15th, 2009
3:36 pm

Looks like Braves are the only team with 2 on the list. I don’t count the Brewers who will lose Fielder or less likely Braun for salary reasons in the next year or so. Braves could as easily had 3 with JJ on the list.

the real Andy

December 15th, 2009
3:38 pm

hoping the Angels will overpay for Lowe (or Vazquez) now with Halladay, Lee ,Lackey gone.

Sonny Clusters

December 15th, 2009
3:46 pm

Okay, we was supposed to be on that list. Where was we? Mark, they has to be something done about this. Playing in the new park should be just what we need for the next decade. We was always playing ball and hitting homeruns and making great throws. We coulda been a contender.

Justin from NM

December 15th, 2009
3:47 pm

“Big Trade”, what “big bat” do you think the Yankees would trade to the Braves for Lowe? Seriously? You must be joking…..And we’d be very lucky if the Angels would give up Juan Rivera, straight up, for Lowe, much less throw in a prospect.

The Real Andy – Vazquez must approve any trade – and he won’t go to a West Coast team – he wants to stay on the East Coast, close to Puerto Rico….

the real Andy

December 15th, 2009
3:49 pm

Justin – that’s good to hear – i’d like to see Javy stick around, and to get out from under that ridiculous Lowe contract

Coach (2011 or Bust)

December 15th, 2009
3:57 pm

Chipper Jones was sandwiched between two other can’t miss first round picks (Tyler Houston 2nd overall pick in 1989) and (Mike Kelly 2nd overall pick in 1991).

Lesson is……..don’t count your chickens before they hatch.

Justin from NM

December 15th, 2009
4:13 pm

Yep, Andy, for once a no-trade clause works in the team’s favor :D

fieldofdreams

December 15th, 2009
4:14 pm

What inquiring minds really want to know is whether Chipper Jones is going to hit like he did two years ago.

seriously

December 15th, 2009
4:20 pm

where is McCann?

no, seriously

December 15th, 2009
4:21 pm

he and Mauers’ numbers barely differ

Hillbilly Deluxe

December 15th, 2009
4:23 pm

Furman Bisher used to write that “the woods are full of can’t miss prospects, who did.”

China Grove

December 15th, 2009
5:00 pm

okay ‘no, seriously.’

they don’t barely differ. and Mauer is also a far better defensive catcher IMO. especially when it comes to game-calling. McCann is a great player and probably deserves to be in the top 20, but a Joe Mauer he is not.

hop

December 15th, 2009
5:07 pm

The Braves are pushing the youngsters as they did last year,but not to focus on 2010,but to make excuses once again that they will not invest in any hitters.

they will finish once again in third if not lower.

they do the self promoting every year and the atlanta press keeps buying what they are selling!

utes13--0

December 15th, 2009
5:56 pm

You guys seriously are putting way too much pressure on Heyward. You people are acting if he is the next Pujols. Why don’t we wait till he does stuff in the majors and not not put so much pressure on the kid!!!!!!!!!!

matty ice

December 15th, 2009
5:59 pm

1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins
2010 Birthday: 27 on Dec. 23

In the past three seasons, Ramirez has been worth just less than 25 wins, and he hasn’t even entered his prime yet. Sure, he’s not a very good shortstop in the field, but when you are talking about a .925-.950 OPS every season, who cares?

2. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
2010 Birthday: 23 on Aug. 25

Upton showed up on an MVP ballot in 2009, and on a better team, his name would have been written on more. Even scarier is that his .300/.366/.532 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) season just scratched the surface. It was Upton’s third pro season, yes, but he still was the sixth-youngest player in the game. Offensively, he remains on a Ken Griffey Jr.-esque career path.

3. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins
2010 Birthday: 27 on April 19

The power scouts had been projecting for nearly a decade finally showed in 2009, as Mauer had one of the best seasons in the history of catchers. And he might be just entering his prime. The only question at this point is: How many more years can he catch? The smart money has him becoming a first baseman somewhere around the middle of the decade.

4. Tim Lincecum, RHP, San Francisco Giants
2010 Birthday: 26 on June 15

The winner of back-to-back Cy Young Awards, Lincecum’s 2009 was even better than his 2008, with both his hit and walk rates decreasing appreciably. Beyond being the best pitcher in baseball, he also is arguably the one whose health can be counted on the most, as he seems like that one-in-a-decade guy to whom innings and pitch counts just don’t matter. By the end of the decade, he’ll be pushing 3,000 career strikeouts — or more likely, he’ll already be there.

5. Zack Greinke, RHP, Kansas City Royals
2010 Birthday: 27 on Oct. 21

The 2009 season was magical for Greinke, but Lincecum’s slight age advantage and longer track record of greatness give him the edge. With his nonperformance problems seemingly behind him, all systems are go for Greinke, whom Royals fans will be able to enjoy for at least three more years.

6. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
2010 Birthday: 25 on Oct. 7

The best third baseman in the game at just 24, Longoria has developed into a Gold Glove defender at the hot corner. While his 2009 season looks to be a statistical doppelganger of his rookie year, there are indications of growth — primarily more walks and fewer strikeouts, both of which bode well. Surprise stat: Longoria is 16-for-16 in stealing bases thus far in his career.

Getty ImagesEvan Longoria will be scoring runs in Tampa Bay (or elsewhere) for many years to come.

7. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
2010 Birthday: 27 on Nov. 17

Braun already has amassed 974 total bases in his first three pro seasons; this is even more incredible because in 2007 he played only 113 games at the big league level. His athleticism should make him effective for the entire decade — he’s the kind of hitter who can annually put up 200 hits, 80 of them going for extra bases, into his early 30s.

8. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
2010 Birthday: 22 on July 20

He’s never pitched an inning in the majors — but he has a chance to win at least the two Cy Young Awards that Lincecum won in the previous decade for himself. On a scouting level, Strasburg is Lincecum with half a foot more height, a better changeup and command that’s a full two grades higher than the Giants star’s.

9. Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle Mariners
2010 Birthday: 24 on April 8

Hernandez delivered his first truly great season in 2009, and with such an early start to his big league career, he’ll be a 25-year-old free agent after the 2011 season — and in line for the largest contract ever given to a pitcher, maybe by a wide margin. Younger and arguably more established than everyone above him, the only reason he ranks a touch lower is the fear of breakdown, as he’s had some minor bumps in the road here and there. Scouts always have loved his stuff but worry some about his mechanics.

10. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
2010 Birthday: 30 on Jan. 16

Even conservatively, Pujols is going to be pushing 3,500 hits and 700 home runs in 10 years. He shows no signs of slowing down, and by the middle of the decade, we should get some indication of whether his listed age is as accurate as he maintains it is.

11. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
2010 Birthday: 26 on May 9

The youngest player to hit 50 home runs in a season, Fielder threatened to do it a second time in 2009; chances are excellent that it will happen at least once more in the upcoming decade. Any purely offensive measurement pegs him as a better hitter than Braun, but with that body, there is a chance of a Mo Vaughn-like precipitous decline in his early 30s.

12. Jon Lester, LHP, Boston Red Sox
2010 Birthday: 26 on Jan. 7

This is a bit surprising at first, but he’s been among the American League’s top 10 pitchers for each of the past two seasons. With a more gaudy win-loss record, he would get more attention. He still hasn’t peaked and could have a Cy Young in his future.

13. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
2010 Birthday: 21 on Aug. 9

The top position player prospect in the game, Heyward has a chance at opening 2010 in the big leagues, and even if that doesn’t work out, he’ll be in Atlanta well before he can legally drink to celebrate his accomplishment. A potential “face of the franchise”-level talent, Heyward hits for average, hits for power, draws walks and even runs a bit. He could be Dale Murphy, V2.

Getty ImagesBetween Heyward and Hanson, the Braves look set well after Bobby Cox departs.

14. Adam Jones, CF, Baltimore Orioles
2010 Birthday: 25 on Aug. 25

It seemed as if 2009 was going to be Jones’ bust-out campaign, but second-half injuries meant Orioles fans will have to wait until this upcoming season. After spending most of his minor league career as a shortstop, Jones quickly has developed into one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, and like Longoria, more walks and fewer strikeouts in 2009 portend even more offense to come.

15. Brett Anderson, LHP, Oakland Athletics
2010 Birthday: 22 on Feb. 1

Eight high school pitchers were selected ahead of Anderson in the 2006 draft, of which seven pitched at Double-A or below in 2009. Orioles right-hander Chris Tillman reached the majors this past season, but Anderson was among the AL’s top pitchers during the second half of the year: a 3.48 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning. He’s just getting started.

16. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
2010 Birthday: 24 on Oct. 10

Not only were the Pirates awful during the past decade, but they were incredibly boring. McCutchen can change at least the latter with his power/speed game, and while his ceiling falls short of MVP level, he could hit 20 bombs and swipe 30 bases annually well into the latter part of the ’10s.

17. Tommy Hanson, RHP, Atlanta Braves
2010 Birthday: 24 on Aug. 28

Had the Braves opened the 2009 season with Hanson in the rotation (which would have been the right decision), we’d be talking about your reigning National League rookie of the year. Instead, we’re talking about one of the circuit’s best young arms. The only thing keeping him from ranking higher is that some scouts and execs feel his ceiling is “a consistent 15-18 game winner” as opposed to “a true ace.”

18. Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit Tigers
2010 Birthday: 22 on Dec. 27

Porcello kept his straight fastball in his back pocket during much of 2009 as he learned on the job how to set up hitters and use his defense. The Porcello everyone saw during the 163rd game of the season — in which he whiffed eight Twins over five innings pitched — was the real deal. He’s among the best choices around for a 2010 breakout.

19. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
2010 Birthday: 26 on Sept. 23

Playing in a more friendly park, Kemp’s numbers would make him a no-brainer — but even with the limits of Chavez Ravine, he might the best candidate for multiple 30/30 (home runs/stolen bases) seasons in the next decade. His tools and athleticism should lead to a graceful aging process, and if he ends up in a better offensive environment, he could put up monster stats.

20. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets
2010 Birthday: 28 on Dec. 20

How great is it to hit .307/.390/.447 and have everyone talk about how bad your year was? That’s what happens when a team, as a whole, fails to live up to expectations. As big a nightmare as 2009 was, Wright remains one of the game’s best young talents and one who is just hitting his prime.

Just missed (in alphabetical order): Pedro Alvarez, Pirates; Elvis Andrus, Rangers; Gordon Beckham, White Sox; Miguel Cabrera, Tigers; Robinson Cano, Yankees; Alcides Escobar, Brewes; Neftali Feliz, Rangers; Yovani Gallardo, Brewers; Bryce Harper, College of Southern Nevada; Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers; Mat Latos, Padres; Jesus Montero, Yankees; David Price, Rays; Anthony Ranaudo, Louisiana State; Carlos Santana, Indians; Grady Sizemore, Indians; Mike Stanton, Marlins; Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies; Justin Verlander, Tigers; Matt Wieters, Orioles; Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals.

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus

NORRIS

December 15th, 2009
6:03 pm

Whats sad is that the Braves still have NO first baseman and still are missing an outfielder.
How do the braves intend to compete with the Phillies when we dont even have a full team. We sit around and everybody else picks up all the good free agents and the Braves do nothing.
You cant depend on a bunch of rookies to take you to the world series. Once again the Braves will suck. What makes me so mad is that we will probably have one of the best pitching staffs in the league but we will lose because of no run support. ahhggggg………..

Bobby Cox

December 15th, 2009
6:52 pm

I’ve got Greg Norton penciled in for firstbase; Prado in right; and Frank will give Kelly Johnson a spring training invite to earn back his secondbase job. The 2010 lineup looks complete. Duh.

OldTimer

December 15th, 2009
7:32 pm

This is Bobby’s last year.He’s passing the torch. To whom, we don’t know. The Braves will rise again. Farewell Mr. Cox.

Kelly Johnson Fan Club

December 15th, 2009
8:54 pm

Thanks, Mark, though you’re a much better analyst than the people at BPro. They really don’t know what the hell they’re talking about. You’re probably more capable (having little knowledge of the other 29 teams’ farm systems, I’m assuming) of creating this list than they are.

tdmorgan

December 15th, 2009
9:16 pm

Don, have you been paying attention to the Braves baseball team, we have almost all guys who hit for average and get on base consistently on the team. As great as these guys are, you also need somebody who can get extra base hits, something the Braves could have really used for the whole year. The Minor League affiliates do emphasize the same thing. The Minors is where you develop talent but unfortunately most of the players never make it to the Majors because they are not able to do things consistently. Players like Heyward have proven to do basically everything extremely well.

tdmorgan

December 15th, 2009
9:20 pm

also, can we stop taking stabs at Schafer, the young man was hurt but didn’t tell anybody because he had finally made it to Atlanta. If reports are true he was hurt within the first week or so in the season. It’s hard enough to play when you’re not injured, imagine having a wrist injury and trying to play at a similar level. By the way the difference between someone who hits 280 and 300 over the course of a season given around 500 at bats is only 10 hits over a 162 game schedule that’s not that big of a difference.

jondy

December 15th, 2009
9:26 pm

This guy Goldstein is honestly an idiot. Tommy Hanson has ace stuff, and even if he doesn’t, Is this guy really this stupid? Someone needs to tell this jackass that an 18 win season constitutes as ACE material. Guess how many guys had 18+ wins last year…The answer is 4.

4 pitchers, idiot. There were 7 guys in ‘08, and 10 in ‘07.

Now, Goldstein, you idiot… Do a little simple math. 4 (# of 18 game winners) divided by 150 (number of starting pictcher spots) = .026666%.
That is the top 3% of all pitchers. That is an ACE in my book, freaking moron. Bradley, please don’t quote a schmuck like this again. Really just looks bad on you is all. ANd you don’t really need any more help if you ask me.

reason

December 15th, 2009
10:02 pm

Maybe someone has already pointed this out, and yes i’m a braves fan, but got give credit where credit is due. How can Ryan Howard not be on this list?

reason

December 15th, 2009
10:02 pm

Ryan Howard?

seriously

December 15th, 2009
10:05 pm

China Grove…
dude he isnt Joe Mauer, He is Brian McCann. There numbers aren’t that much different. check ‘em out

no, seriously

December 15th, 2009
10:06 pm

check ‘em

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=435263

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=408045

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