5 questions about the Braves, a couple involving Soriano
Maybe it's just me, but I think they're going to miss this guy. (AJC photo by Bob Andres)
1. Why pay the same money to an older reliever who hasn’t had a save since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2008? Billy Wagner is 38 and will make $7 million next season. Rafael Soriano will turn 30 this week and, after agreeing to re-up for a a year after being dealt to Tampa Bay, will earn $7 million in 2009. Soriano had 27 saves last season; Wagner had none. I don’t get this one at all.
2. Why offer arbitration to Soriano, whom they had no intention of keeping, and not offer it to Adam LaRoche, whom they need? I know there are issues of draft-pick compensation and, as ever, money — the Braves don’t want to pay LaRoche what his market value stands to be — but I don’t get this, either. The Braves want LaRoche to stick around for less money and bridge the gap to Freddie Freeman, whom they hope will be ready in 2011. But what if Ol’ Rochy gets a better (read: longer) deal someplace else? Who’s the first baseman then — Martin Prado? And who plays second base if Prado scoots over? (Not Kelly Johnson. He just got non-tendered.)
3. Why the utter desperation to trade Derek Lowe? No, he didn’t have the greatest of seasons, but he did win 15 games. Does one lesser season invalidate everything the Braves believed about Lowe 11 months ago? I understand the Braves need a big bat in the worst way, but is Lowe the only trade lever the Braves have? And doesn’t the appearance of being keen to unload a big-salaried guy serve to diminish the big-salaried guy’s value even more?
4. Doesn’t dumping Ryan Church prove Frank Wren messed up the Jeff Francoeur trade? That transaction wasn’t so much a swap as a divestiture. The Braves needed to cut the cord with Francoeur, who’d become an outsize presence — he didn’t produce much but was the most-discussed man on the roster. Imagine if Matt Diaz had replaced Francoeur as the starter in right field: That would have been the hot-button topic for weeks. When Diaz supplanted Church in right field, nobody said two words. The Braves didn’t really need a player in return; they just needed Francoeur to go somewhere else.
5. Does Wren have the worst instincts in the history of humankind? You know how it’s said that, when in doubt on a multiple-choice test, your first guess is apt to be correct? The Braves’ general manager gives lie to that. Last offseason he tried like crazy to land Jake Peavy, who won only nine games and worked 101 2/3 innings in 2009; tried to sign Rafael Furcal, who hit .269, and tried to sign Ken Griffey Jr., who hit .214. Well, the Braves were better off with Javier Vazquez, Yunel Escobar and Garret Anderson than any of the above. A year from now, we might well be saying, “You know, they should’ve just kept the closer they had.”
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238 comments Add your comment
Larry
December 14th, 2009
1:34 pm
Question 6: Who’s excited about renewing their season tickets after the signing of two geriatric pitchers and getting to watch the major leagues all time losing postseason manager (1-14 in the last game of the postseason) sitting in the dugout again while mining his right nostril with his left thumb for 162 games in 2010?
Brad
December 14th, 2009
1:34 pm
Wren made the decision to cut bait with Smoltz and Glavine — two of the best moves that allowed the Braves to compete in 2009. I don’t think that Scherholtz could have made the same decision
timthebrave
December 14th, 2009
1:41 pm
Larry, I am excited about watching Braves this year and every year for that matter. I think we have the pitching to compete right now. I want to see Heyward and Freeman play but would like to sign Laroche for a year just in case. I don’t think all the blame goes to the manager. In most of the big blown leads he switches pitchers 3 or 4 times and nobody pitches effectively. The blame has to go to the pitchers in games like that. In one run losses where Norton got to hit later in the season the blame can go to bobby. JMO. Go Braves
Ray
December 14th, 2009
1:46 pm
This is the lack of genius of Frank Wren. I just don’t understand his reasoning at all!!
Herschel Talker
December 14th, 2009
1:54 pm
Brian at 9:35am -
All good points. But should we be comparing the current Billy Wagner to the Billy Wagner you’re citing, who was younger and had not had TJ surgery? All things being equal, yes his numbers are better than those of Soriano. However, Wagner is much older and has had TJ surgery, and thus I’d rather pay Soriano $7MM to close rather than Wagner.
Really
December 14th, 2009
1:56 pm
Wren going public with the, “no problem we will trade him within 24 hours” response to Soriano’s acceptance of arbitration seemed slightly bizzare. Why go public that you are desperate to trade anyone with value? Didn’t they get rid of Church to clear roster space for RS? Was his entire $7MM coming due last week?
Mark Bradley...
December 14th, 2009
2:21 pm
is an idiot!!!
Brian
December 14th, 2009
2:23 pm
Herschel, all we have to work with on Wagner after the surgery is what he did with Boston. It’s a small sample size, but he was extremely good. 14.9 K’s per 9 innings and a 1.72 ERA…the numbers pop out. There is a level of uncertainty due to the surgery, but I’d rather have a guy like Wagner who was consistent and great until one major injury than a guy like Soriano who does three trips onto the DL a year.
A TRAUG
December 14th, 2009
2:25 pm
Soriano does not have the fire that is needed to be a consistent closer in our division. I watched all 162 games last season and my father had the privilege of watching about 10 games. In all 10 games, either Soriano or Gonzalez gave up the lead. LaRoche is an average player who was playing for a contract in the 2nd Half of the season and will be overpaid in another uniform. Also, the only reason we are trying like hell to trade Lowe is because he is a much better pitcher than John Lackey, who is commanding in the range of 18-20 million per year. Whatever Wren does decide to do, let us all hope that he does not give up prospects for a “one and done” guy. Examples. J.D. Drew his name on the Disabled List for Adam Wainright. Mark Texeira: Traded 4 prospects who are all competing for the Rangers for a guy that we rented for one year, then traded to the Angels for Kasey Kotchman, then traded him to the Red Sox for Adam LaRoche, who is now a Free Agent.
Clay
December 14th, 2009
2:25 pm
The criticism of Frank Wren is a little over the top. Given what Tampa Bay signed Soriano for, yes, I’d rather have him. But I assume he thought the market for Soriano would be better. And now you’re criticizing him for going after Jake Peavy? Come on. Peavy got hurt, but you have the benefit of hindsight here. Everyone would have been psyched to have Peavy at the time. As for Garret Anderson being better than Ken Griffey, I just beg to differ. Griffey only hit .214, but he had an OBP of .324 and a slugging percentage of .411 (superior to Garret’s .303 (ouch) and .401) with 19 HR to Garret’s 13. As old as Griffey is, I have a hard time believing he could have been much worse defensively, either. Neither were great shakes, but Garret Anderson was hardly a big benefit this year.
Justin from NM
December 14th, 2009
2:26 pm
Looks like Lackey is close to going to the Sox. Does this mean Lowe to the Angels? What would it take to get Juan Rivera from them????
matty ice
December 14th, 2009
2:26 pm
I really have to believe you know the answers to those questions and understand baseball a little bit more than you just let on. If not, wow, it’s a shame. I really hope this is just you looking for readers and trying to fuel the fires of the part of the fan base than is less than totally knowledgeable. I sincerely hope you’re not actually among that group, because this article makes it seem like you are.
Brian
December 14th, 2009
2:29 pm
This doesn’t really add anything to the discussion that hasn’t already been said, but among all pitchers in MLB history with at least 800 innings pitched, Wagner is second in adjusted ERA (ERA relative to the league, ballpark adjusted):
1. Mariano Rivera, 202 (200 basically means an ERA half the league average)
2. Billy Wagner, 182
3. Pedro Martinez, 154
4. Lefty Grove, 148
5. Walter Johnson, 147
Trevor Hoffman, 147
Brian
December 14th, 2009
2:31 pm
Justin, my opinion is that since Juan Rivera is a productive player and doesn’t have a huge contract, the Angels aren’t going to be desperate to trade him, despite their outfield depth. But if the Braves eat some of Lowe’s contract and/or throw in a prospect, it could possibly get done. If Lackey goes to Boston, Wren will give the Angels a call, for sure.
Justin from NM
December 14th, 2009
2:38 pm
Brian, that’s what I was thinking too. Fingers crossed. I really hope FW doesn’t do something like swap Lowe for Matthews Jr. I was worried that he might try and swap Lowe for Milton Bradley.
Bring Me the Head of Deforest Kelley
December 14th, 2009
2:42 pm
Agree completely with the Soriano/Wagner question and statements. Soriano may not have been perfect, but I’ll take someone like him, who delivers 90% of the time in the closer role, than spending the same amount of money on the big question mark that is Wagner. Wagner has a lot more downside, with not much upside over Soriano.
Disagree with the idea that Lowe is not the starter the Braves should be trying to trade. Sure, he may have won 15 games last year, but do you think he’ll win as many in 2010. I sure don’t. His ERA is a full run higher than our next worst starter (Kawakami – who pitched well in some big matchups last season). Bradley should have restated his question here as “why re-sign Tim Hudson when there are already 3 solid + 2 serviceable pitchers in the rotation?” This is the bigger question mark, which is now necessitating Lowe (or someone else) be moved.
Joshua
December 14th, 2009
2:44 pm
With one of the best run differentials in all the majors last year, every one of you who keeps saying “we need a bat” is just dumb. We need to resign roachy and that is about it. I say keep Lowe and let Kawakami pitch from the pen. Then you got Moylan, Saito & Wagner to setup and close, and you got a legit starter if someone gets injured. WE DO NOT HAVE TO HAVE A BAT. Look at 14 consecutive division titles and see how many times we score more than 735 runs (what we had last year). You will find it was not many.
willie martinez
December 14th, 2009
2:44 pm
do the braves have an opening for defensive coordinator?
Justin from NM
December 14th, 2009
2:48 pm
You’re not going to pay Kawakami $7-8mil a year to pitch from the pen when you have Kris Medlen available for the same role, at 1/10th the salary….
Mark Bradley
December 14th, 2009
2:49 pm
If you listen to the folks on here, Coach Willie, they should.
Mark Bradley
December 14th, 2009
2:55 pm
And I’m afraid some of you have misinterpreted my answer to No. 4. My point is that Wren did not mess up the Francoeur trade — because it wasn’t so much a a trade as a jettisoning.
Homer
December 14th, 2009
3:02 pm
Fire DOB!
As If
December 14th, 2009
3:10 pm
All I can do is laugh out loud at ANYONE who thinks that the Braves were hasty in trading Francoeur! It has been obvious for at least a couple of years that Francoeur was a losing project in Atlanta. Frenchy still looks like a wild duck looking for a place to S**T when he swings the bat. He’s fundamentally flawed in his swing. For him to be successful, his timing has to be perfect. He has no margin for error. He was nothing but timing error his last two years with the Braves. Maybe he will thrive somewhere else but I’m glad someone else is taking that gamble.
Kelly Johnson on the other hand looked fundamentally sound with the bat. Nice swing….nice pop…….questionable head. I realize many have mentioned KJs wrist problems but even when healthy, he was the picture of streaky. Blazing hot or cold as ice. I would rather have unspectacularly solid, day in and day out. Those guys get you to the post season. Someone who is hitting .500 for 3 weeks while everyone else on the team is hot as well, ain’t gonna help you when they hit .050 in the next 3 weeks.
In my opinion, cutting ties with Frenchy and KJ finally sets the Braves up to try and build a winning club based on performance rather than potential. All that 2005 did was make the Braves waaaay too patient with the young players they had. As long as those ties to “potential” stayed with the club… someone would want to be inserting them in the lineup.
Good riddance!
74 Dawg
December 14th, 2009
3:12 pm
Welcome back Mark. You answered your own questions. Frenchy was addition by subtraction. But what if they had just released him? At least he might not now be in NY or our division.
FrankieLee
December 14th, 2009
3:25 pm
Hubbard can play second.
hawesg
December 14th, 2009
3:28 pm
I have only one question:
Why does the AJC let Bradley write about baseball?
Answers?
Soriano gets hurt a lot, Lowe frees up salary space, Church is another guy who’s always hurt, but not having Frenchy is addition by subtraction.
If Bradley were a music critic, he’d wonder why the music was so quiet before the concert started.
Ted M
December 14th, 2009
3:35 pm
I agree with everything Don said but I think he forgot to include how Cox always takes our starter out after the 6th inning no matter how hot he is.
Cox does less with more, his records are only because he has had a whole lot of more until recently.
Keeping Lowe into the season doesn’t mean you pay for his entire contract. Trade him for a bunch of prospects when someone is desperate for a starter.
And don’t forget the Red Sox began last season w/7 starters and ended up needing more by the break.
Ted M
December 14th, 2009
3:41 pm
Jordan Schaffer is going to be a great hitter and baseball player 2011. I hope he is still w/the Brave.
Ted M
December 14th, 2009
3:44 pm
More predictions from Ted…Chipper will play less then 50 games in 2010.
Erik
December 14th, 2009
3:54 pm
Bradley you have no idea what you are talking about. Your first point is a valid one but you missed the BIGGEST drawback of signing Wagner over Soriano…. The Braves have lost the 17th overall pick in next years draft. I think Wagner will pitch well this season and be a great closer but I think Soriano would be on a similar level and we would still have our 1st round pick. As for the Age comparison it really bears little point in the discussion. We are talking about 1 yr guaranteed deal which lessens the risk. BUT BOTH PLAYERS ARE HUGE INJURY RISKS!!!!
Soriano has a long history of major injuries which makes him as much of a risk as Wagner. As you imply Wagner could get hurt while Soriano stays healthy but there is no way to know which one will get hurt. Hell they could both get hurt. Its a coin toss.
As for your second point…. I actually like everything you have to say here.
What really makes me mad are your 3rd, 4th, and 5th points.
First Lowe as you said had an off year last year and that does not mean he will repeat but we do owe him 45M over the next 3 seasons. There is no doubt the Braves needed him last year and in order to obtain him we had to be willing to offer 4/60M, so we did. Now we are fortunate enough to have had several things go our way and no longer wish to be teathered to a 36 yr old(turns 37 June 1) pitcher taking up roughly 15-20% of our budget for the next 3 years. You should know as O’Brien and every other Baseball beat writer that the Braves don’t expect to get a return of significance. This is a SALARY DUMP. In Fact I dont believe Wren or any other official has said on the record that they want to deal Lowe. They have said they want to deal a SP and speculation, rumors, and off the record conversations have led writers to believe that they are shopping Lowe and Lowe alone.
Your 4th point… The Francouer Trade was never about getting a great player back. It was a PR and Finacially motivated decision. The braves needed to get rid of Frenchy while they could get something back. He was struggling and not responding to help from within the organization. The Braves needed to have something to show the fans that they got for Frenchy. Because if they hadnt traded him then they very well could have non tendered him yesterday and faced the full wrath and fury of Braves Nation. Now they are 3-5M lighter than they would have been and are free to give Heyward a shot and spend that money on a hitter that fits in our lineup rather than Frnchy who was a offensive liability at times.
Finally you can talk about Wren’s “instincts” all you want but at the end of the day he put a team out there that competed until the end and exceeded expectations.
This article is not well thought through and what makes it worse is that since you, a man of credibility has written it, people who are not as familiar with the Braves as others will cite it as fact.
BT
December 14th, 2009
3:54 pm
Soriano gave up a couple critical home runs late last season and now he’s no longer a brave. I don’t get it. For the same money you must keep Soriano over Wagner. Both have zipper arms. What the hell, go with the younger arm.
I’m looking forward to having a coach that demands more from his players. This team needs a new GM, new coach and players with toughness.
Mark Bradley
December 14th, 2009
3:57 pm
Erik, you basically recited my answer to No. 4 back to me.
Will
December 14th, 2009
4:02 pm
The braves are so old that they are moving their spring facilities to The Villages- america’s favorite hometown……..
Bobby P
December 14th, 2009
4:03 pm
Two questions ?
MB is anybody paying you to play General Manager ?
Are you a crotchety old man?
We nearly got to postseason with Wrens moves fool.
Mark Bradley
December 14th, 2009
4:03 pm
Jon Heyman of SI.com reports Roy Halladay will be traded to Philadelphia. Good news, though: The Phillies will give up Cliff Lee to get him.
Justin from NM
December 14th, 2009
4:06 pm
Well, Lackey and the BoSox have a deal. 5 years $85mil. Time to get on the horn with the Yankees, Angels and Mariners about Lowe!
fsugolf
December 14th, 2009
4:08 pm
you in the hell are the braves lookin at for offence antone know
fsugolf
December 14th, 2009
4:09 pm
who in the hell are the braves lookin at for offence anyone know of any rumors
Justin from NM
December 14th, 2009
4:09 pm
Angels are close to signing Matsui to be their DH. They have 5 OFs on their roster right now, not counting Matsui….
nique
December 14th, 2009
4:10 pm
excellent points
Mark Bradley
December 14th, 2009
4:10 pm
Usual suspects, fsugolf: Mark DeRosa. Xavier Nady. Jermaine Dye. And Marlon Byrd's name seems to be popping up.
No. Ga. bob
December 14th, 2009
4:11 pm
In my lifetime I discovered one constant…people who know nothing try to speak the most & fastest so no one will notice.
I have never seen as many bloggers that give the impression that they know more than GM’s and professional coaches. Most can’t even spell.
The major reason the Braves suck is they’re stuck with the name ATLANTA. (just like the Falcons). When they become a GEORGIA TEAM then good things might happen.
Mark Bradley's Fan Club
December 14th, 2009
4:12 pm
Wow, Philly gets rid of their best starter– thank goodness Lee is gone!
It seems clear that the Braves don’t have interest in LaRoche– that’s not to say they wouldn’t want to have him, but it looks like they figure they couldn’t get him without signing him to a longer deal than they feel comfortable doing with Freeman waiting in the wings and probably for more money than they want to pay. That might or might not be the right move for the long-term, but for the short-term, that means we’re left with a big hole at first base.
And if Wren does what everyone thinks he will, that is, (a) trade Lowe in basically a salary dump, and (b) sign a kind of middling veteran player in the outfield, how is this team better? Basically, it’s the same team minus Lowe and LaRoche. The loss of a power-hitting firstbaseman is the biggest subtraction, it seems to me. I’d actually give the Braves pretty good odds of winning the division put together as they were by the end of the year– e.g., Shafer, Francoeur, and Kelly out of the lineup and Hanson pitching every 5th day. That group produced a very nice record.
Take a hitter out of there, though… and I don’t know that that team is going to succeed– they’ll win some, but probably not get in the playoffs. Just like this year.
fordcobra
December 14th, 2009
4:15 pm
If they trade Lowe the Braves will pony up a portion of the 45 mil to get it done. This season is done let’s get behind what ever decisions are made and be True Braves Fans. Be positive not so Negative.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to All
Mark Bradley's Fan Club
December 14th, 2009
4:17 pm
(following up on my post of 4:12)… which is why I think the Braves should trade Vasquez for (hopefully) a big(ish) bopper. Vasquez is coming off one of his best years ever. For players who have played for a few years, numbers tend to trend to the mean. My guess is that Vasquez’s numbers won’t be as good next year. His trade value is huge right now. (Same argument applies to Lowe: he’s coming off one of his worst years; his numbers will probably trend to the mean, meaning they’ll get better). This team has potential for greater improvement by getting a big bat in exchange for Vasquez.
Of course, if Hudson weren’t ready to come into the rotation, my view might be different…
turnin2
December 14th, 2009
4:17 pm
Losing DLowe will be a huge mistake – he is adamant about making 2010 a comeback year. He’s the first to say he let Atlanta down and wants to make up for it. Whomever gets him will have quite the ACE…
jake
December 14th, 2009
4:18 pm
Point you neglected about Lowe: since when is having too much starting pitching a problem? Injuries are so commonplace among pitchers, especially the way Cox over-uses relievers. Soriano was excellent when rested, but Cox wore him down they way he has so many others in the past.
If I’m Wren, I hold on to every arm I’ve got until Cox is kicking manure in north Georgia. Put Kawakami in the pen (a Saito-in-waiting?) and look for a bat without giving up pitching or prospects. You know, the old fashioned way.
Mark Bradley
December 14th, 2009
4:18 pm
Didn’t know I had a fan club. I’m shocked and amazed at this development. But I wouldn’t count on overflow membership.
And here’s the part I don’t understand about Lowe: The Braves signed him thinking he’d be their ace for the next few years. Now they’re acting as if he stunk out the joint. Which he didn’t. He didn’t have a great season, but he won 15 games. Same, I might note, as Javier Vazquez. (Although with a much higher ERA.)
Mark Bradley's Fan Club
December 14th, 2009
4:23 pm
That’s right, Mark–astute observation re: the Braves’ long-term investment in Lowe. There’s a reason why you have a fan club!
Actually, I think that Wren understands all of this– I remember all of us speculating about the players he was going after last fall/winter and being totally wrong more often than not when he actually made a move.
At least… I’ve GOT to believe that he understands all of this… otherwise, I have visions of John Koncak dancing through my head.
Mark Bradley
December 14th, 2009
4:23 pm
I see Jon Heyman is now less sure about Cliff Lee going to Seattle.