Even if Florida is ripe to be had, has UGA ripened yet?
In 2008 Florida scored at least 30 points in all nine games against SEC opposition, including the one it lost to Ole Miss. Its average margin of victory in those games was 30 points.
In 2009 Florida has scored 30 points against one SEC opponent, that being Kentucky. The Gators managed 23 against Tennessee, 13 against LSU, 23 against Arkansas and 29 against Mississippi State. Their average margin of victory in those five games was 13.4 points.
As silly as it sounds to say of the nation’s No. 1 team as led by the nation’s No. 1 player, Florida isn’t playing well. It was lucky to beat Arkansas in the Swamp — remember, Georgia scored 52 points against the Razorbacks on the road — and needed a phantom interception to escape Starkville with a 10-point victory. (Remember, Georgia Tech beat MSU by 11 points on the same field in a game that was only cosmetically close.)
Tim Tebow ranks 45th in the nation in total offense. By way of comparison, Joe Cox ranks 53rd. After the Mississippi State game Tebow didn’t meet the media, which was an utter shock. (He said later he wanted to spend time with MSU coach Dan Mullen, formerly Florida’s offensive coordinator, and family.) But Urban Meyer acknowledged this week: “Tim Tebow is not playing at his highest level.”
Tebow told reporters on Monday: “It’s kind of new and it is frustrating.”
Put simply, Florida is vulnerable. And looky who the Gators play this Saturday.
Georgia is coming off its most impressive game of 2009, albeit against Vanderbilt. It has had a week to rest and ready a new end-zone dance. (Sorry. Couldn’t resist.) When last the Bulldogs had a bye before Florida, they beat the Gators and Tebow in a performance so stunning it rankled Florida for the next calendar year.
But let’s get serious. Georgia is 4-3. It needed a last-gasp pass breakup to beat South Carolina and a last-second field goal to subdue Arizona State. It lost by 26 points — the second-worst defeat under Mark Richt, topped only by 49-10 in Jacksonville last season — to unranked Tennessee. It led Vandy only 17-10 after 40 minutes.
Some team is going to beat Florida. Georgia, sorry to say, is not that team. It doesn’t defend well enough, and it isn’t going to score many points against Charlie Strong’s inspired bunch. (Florida ranks No. 1 in the nation in total defense; Georgia ranks 70th.) The Bulldogs will play hard and keep it close for a half, and then superior forces will carry the day/night.
It’s weird. Georgia hasn’t beaten a No. 1 team since it stunned Florida 24-3 in 1985, and these Gators don’t look nearly as impregnable as those Gators did. But this isn’t a vintage Georgia team. In almost any other year it would be easy to pick the upset. Not this time.
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563 comments Add your comment
Gator bait
October 27th, 2009
5:50 pm
Bulldogs primed for upset?????????? Dawg fans are delusional as usual with their “we’z be da baddest dawgs ever!” rhetoric.
Florida 59 Dawgs 3
An Observation
October 27th, 2009
5:50 pm
Say what you want about Georgia pulling off an upset but Tim Tebow will find a way to win the game for the Gators even if it is in the last seconds of the 4th quarter.
Prediction: Dawgs lose AGAIN!!!!! Going to be a l-o-n-g d-r-i-v-e from Jacksonville.
Ed
October 27th, 2009
5:50 pm
Everything you said makes perfect sense, Mark. But sometimes a team looks so ripe for an upset…
What if Georgia’s defense actually gets after an opponent for a change? Maybe, rush the quarterback, plug the running lanes, hit hard and wrap up in the secondary, maybe even pick off a pass or two…
I don’t see Georgia doing much with Florida’s defense, but what if they protect the ball, limit penalties, block well, complete a pass here and there, and run hard? They might score some points after all. We have a kicker who can score anytime the ball is inside the other team’s 40.
It seems unlikely, but not impossible. This game is definitely worth watching.
AngryDawg
October 27th, 2009
5:50 pm
Mark it down—Ga can pull the upset! Florida’s offense sucks this year, and if Ga can get a couple of early TDs, maybe a pick-6 on tebow, the game can be won!!! Ga 33 Fla 24!!!!!
It will be party time at the beach baby!!!
SSI gator
October 27th, 2009
5:54 pm
acket3 -
Put down the crack pipe. It is very addictive.
cold hard TRUTH
October 27th, 2009
5:56 pm
4-3 Georgia and 7-0 Florida would BOTH be 5-2 if not for that suspended SEC crew.
TX DAWG
October 27th, 2009
5:56 pm
UGA’s defense makes every team and their QB appear better than they are (see. UGA/UT game and Crompton). UF looks like it is number 1 again against our soft D. Hope I am wrong…
Tampa Gator
October 27th, 2009
5:57 pm
Mark…what game did you watch when Florida played Miss. State? I loved your biased comment about the Gators…”it took a phantom interception to escape Starkville with a 10 point victory.” Well, dude, if Tebow hadn’t thrown two TD passes to Miss. State, Florida would have won the game by 40 points. The same will be in this weekend’s game. If Tebow and the Gators don’t turn the ball over, they will will cover the Vegas margin and much more. If they turn it over more than once, the game will be closer than expected. If they turn it over 3 or 4 times, the Bulldogs will most likely win the game. So, the Dawgs can’t win the game, but the Gators can lose it. My bet, Florida 27, Georgia 14, with Georgia scoring once on a Florida turnover deep in its own territory and scoring again late in the game when the score is 27-7. No Georgia win this weekend. Only Florida can lose it. It has been that way all year. No one will beat the Gators this year. The Gators might beat themselves, however.
JW
October 27th, 2009
5:57 pm
Florida is gonna lose..but not to Georgia..South Carolina will beat them in Columbia on Nov. 14.
cpjismyhero
October 27th, 2009
6:00 pm
go jackets AL GEORGIA CAN DOMIS WHINE ABOUT BAD REFS
Lost dog
October 27th, 2009
6:01 pm
I expect UF to play an inspired game and get on track with a win Saturday. UGA should be very lose for the game so the pressure is on UF, but I expect Tebow to have a special game and UF will easily cover.
DHD
October 27th, 2009
6:02 pm
I am pulling for Georgia even though I’m a Tech fan. A Georgia win could help Tech. It hurts REAL bad, but….Go Dawgs!!
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN
October 27th, 2009
6:04 pm
The tiny tim and the goofy gators show will come to a screeching halt at the cocktail party.
Steve Spurrier
October 27th, 2009
6:05 pm
They don’t call him TEBLOW for nothing. Well maybe at the men’s club they do!
Starring Peter Graves as Capt. Over
October 27th, 2009
6:06 pm
Calidogg: Spurrier beat UGA his junior year (1965).
BTW: What happened the last time UGA had an open date in the regular season? They really played well, especially on defense. Giving up over 400 yards on the ground.
John gota dui Dewberry
October 27th, 2009
6:06 pm
cpjismyhero your so gay
SSI gator
October 27th, 2009
6:06 pm
Tampa Gator -
I agree. Maybe it is time to put Brantley in for the “between the 20’s plays” and let Tebow just operate in the red zone. Brantley will carve up this defense like the turkey that it is. Tebow won’t feel like he has to do everything himself.
dawgdude
October 27th, 2009
6:06 pm
Brilliant article. Florida is not playing their best ball…..excuse me but is Ga? Coming off a lose to UT 46-19…wow brilliant!
mowreck
October 27th, 2009
6:12 pm
I am a GT fan and I truly believe UGA has a chance to win the Florida game. Any time you have a week off to get ready always helps, no matter what anyone says. If they WERE to win I’ll be all you FAIR-WEATHER Dawg fans will shut up about Joe and Willie. Course GT has the week off before UGA and me personally, I am kinda pissed that you took the week off before Fla. instead of GT. No respect, no respect … hope the GT team is as mad about that as I am.
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN +72
October 27th, 2009
6:13 pm
……Run up the score………..Dawgs !
King Gator
October 27th, 2009
6:13 pm
Dawgs celebrate touchdowns, Gators celebrate National Championships! 3 in 4 years! Go Gators!
Bill
October 27th, 2009
6:15 pm
Damn Mark, Astros just hire Mills as their manager. Was hoping Braves would get him.
Snoop Dawg
October 27th, 2009
6:15 pm
Dawgs, you gonna be miserable driving back from Jacksonville, just like Corey Smith croons. Your torment will not end until you run the Preacher Man Mark Richt and his Deacons Bozo and Willie out of the State of Georgia. Only then will the Dawg Nation once again be able to Hope…
Art Vandalay
October 27th, 2009
6:16 pm
Florida will be fine in this game because they will finally put together a complete game offense, defense and the all important passion. UF was up for the Tennessee game but came out and laid an egg, this is a die hard Florida fan saying Urban Meyer was out coached by Lane Kiffin if just by virtue of being shocked at how up Tennessee was for that game, Florida won on talent and depth alone.
You saw the real Gators the first half against Kentucky, then we all know what happened after that. The Gators were up for LSU and the defense was lights out but Tebow was obviously fuzzy. I said since July that Arkansas set up as the same type of trap game as Ole Miss but the fact the Gators over came it shows how far they’ve come since then. Against MSU they again came out flat they are #1 they don’t have to impress anyone and they were playing a sub par team. At some you would think it will come together and everyone will be on their came and playing with passion and this seems to set up to be that game.
Art Vandalay
October 27th, 2009
6:17 pm
on their game*
SOUTHGADAWG88
October 27th, 2009
6:18 pm
Tenn beat UGA by 3 touchdowns in 07 and got blown out by Fla 59-20.Yet UGA beat FLA 42-30 that year.What does that mean?Every game is decided by the set of circumstances that occur in THAT particular game.For all the smack talk a UGA win puts the series at 3-3 over the last 6.
King Gator
October 27th, 2009
6:20 pm
I’m thinking Gators score 40 and the Dawgs not so much.. probably around 10. Got my SEC tickets today, see you in the ATL Gator and Tide fans.
college official
October 27th, 2009
6:20 pm
that “superior force” will be the officails…. as it has been int he last two games for the gators
Suspended Official
October 27th, 2009
6:22 pm
Florida gets a LITTLE HELP from it’s friends.
Call it Like It Is
October 27th, 2009
6:23 pm
LMAO!
You gotta be joking this is the same team tnat got BLOWN OUT by TN!
Give me a break to all of the UGAY homers that even think you have a chance.
Enough Said!
King Gator
October 27th, 2009
6:24 pm
Gators 16 W’s Dawgs 3 W’s since 1990 .. 9 more years and we’ll have the all-time series lead.. Dawgs owned the Gators in the 70’s and 80’s…but that was then and this is now! Go Gators!
Dabo Dawg
October 27th, 2009
6:25 pm
big difference…… Clemson beats # 10 Miami at Miami which is being considered a big turnaround for Clemson. UGA beats Ahem….. Vandy which is being considered a big turnaround for UGA! Yes A BIG DIFFERENCE!
Donnie in Dawsonville
October 27th, 2009
6:25 pm
Doom. Dread. Disaster. Derailment. All have a “D” and so does Dawgs, and that spells Florida by 40 points.
Now for the “R”s. Repugnant. Really (crappy). Responsible (for this whole mess). And that means Richt. When do we sack this guy and stop the bleeding? When, I ask you?
Barkin'Dog
October 27th, 2009
6:26 pm
dawgdude — Georgia is coming off of a win… wow, you’re brilliant!
Jackets!
October 27th, 2009
6:26 pm
Yo!!! De PRIIIIMMEEE Fow Dah rippin!!!!!
can yall dawgs come thew…!!!
Donnie in Dawsonville
October 27th, 2009
6:28 pm
King Gator, the difference now is coaching. Meyer is in a completely different class from Richt. Richt is a minor leaguer, Meyer is a starter in the majors.
Richt has got to go. Pulleeze Damon Evans, get rid of this loser.
tacky
October 27th, 2009
6:29 pm
I wanna see “celebration ” penalties called on that maniac Tebow.
Barkin'Dog
October 27th, 2009
6:30 pm
All you blowhards predicting a 40-point margin this week are out of your heads. No way on God’s green football field will the Dawgs lose by 40, 30 or even 20. In fact, I’m calling for the upset, too. But, if they do lose, it will be close. If UF gets a pick-6 at the end in may be by 10.
However, don’t be surprised if the game is the reverse of the projected outcome… because it has happened before… right there in the WLOCP!!
Goal Line Stalker
October 27th, 2009
6:30 pm
Since Teblow will be breaking the TD record this weekend, why can’t Herschel play. I’m sure one of his personalities has some eligibility left. Then we would have a running game to fall back on when Clox throws his inevitable interceptions…
Mike Bobo 17 INT
October 27th, 2009
6:31 pm
Donnie in Dawsonville
Finally, someone with a football mentality. Amen brother!!
tj
October 27th, 2009
6:31 pm
Yeah Yeah UGA sucks badly this year, however, the team who comes off of the bye week in the UGA-FLA game usually wins!! FLA did it in 2005, 2006, and 2008. And UGA did it in 2007. UGA wins by 4!! Go Dawgs!!
DannyDawg
October 27th, 2009
6:31 pm
“Jackets” – give us a break, we’re hurting now, and it won’t get any better. We’re looking at a 7-5 season at best. We could have been so much better. Maybe we do need a new coach…
Goal Line Stalker
October 27th, 2009
6:32 pm
Barkin’Dog is Farkin’Mad!!!!!!!!!!!
clemson stinx
October 27th, 2009
6:33 pm
Florida is struggling.
DannyDawg
October 27th, 2009
6:33 pm
A bye week means nothing against all the other factors, especially coaching, which doesn’t get any better in a bye week, sad to say.
jerry
October 27th, 2009
6:33 pm
4th down 30 seconds left in game, Dawgs on Gator 1, trailing 9-14, no time outs. Richt pondering the play call when Water Girl comes up and asks if “Autumn In New York” is on the WE channel tonight. Richt says he doesn’t know, will check with Bobo. Bobo whips out laptop, he and Richt huddle over it as clock runs out. 14-9 Gators.
Art Vandalay
October 27th, 2009
6:34 pm
why does everyone give Tebow flak for not getting penalties. THAT IS SPORTS, they didn’t call traveling on Jordan, they don’t call grounding on Tom Brady or pass interference on someone like Champ Bailey. Roger Clemens never missed the strike zone, i mean there are a million examples of players earning a little “respect” from refs, if those guys earned it then Tebow most definitely has at the college level, don’t hate on Tebow thats just the way of the sports world
Please Play Spikes
October 27th, 2009
6:35 pm
I Repeat; Bulldogs in the NFL=39, Gators=19 There is no good reason why we can’t knock the Gaytor $hit out of these overrated phonies especially Mr. Cheap Shot Spikes.
Sickem Georgia
Nic Ranger
October 27th, 2009
6:38 pm
No, the Dawgs have a long way to go to be a top tier player in the SEC. Maybe when they have better players and better coaching…
ozzfest
October 27th, 2009
6:38 pm
Samuel + Ealy = Worley + Henderson?
1985 meet 2009?
Hmmm.